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"Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 11:22 AM (EST)
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"Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
So after last night's episode, I was observing that Neleh's innocence seems to be catching up with her. Even though she was authentically glad to be back with the tribe and share her experiences, I'm sure that she did go WAY TOO FAR in her sharing to the point of really getting under some people's skin and that she, unintentionally, was bragging. (Note that Paschal was very mild mannered, as is his way, and that he, while glad to have had the experience, had the wisdom not to rub it in.) All that to say that all of the sudden, the UTR Neleh suddenly had a target emerge on her back. Sean had even mentioned a strategy of teaming up w/Tammy and Robert to vote off Neleh and give them a more powerful position in the tribe.

Your thoughts?

My thoughts:

Robert is still next to go. Since Vee got 2 votes, she knows that one of them came from Robert. Who can blame him? His heart is with Tammy (his sister, isn't that just Neleh sweet!), so he had to vote for somebody else. Since he voted for Vee instead of Neleh, I'm inclined to believe that Neleh, though she prominently displayed her youth and lack of maturity, is not necessarily in trouble.

Also, Sean may have thought in passing about teaming up w/Tammy and Robert for another power shift, but he'd have violated his bond/alliance w/Paschal in doing so.

(And along those lines, what is this thing w/Sean saying that Paschal should have taken Vee instead of Neleh? Vee may have deserved it because it was her birthday, but that would just be silly. Paschal isn't emotionally bonded w/Vee; his "daughter" bond is with Neleh. Not taking Neleh would have weakened that bond and would showed him as a gameplayer, which he IS but he doesn't show it. In taking Neleh, he shows that he is true to his word, thus strengthening his ties to Neleh and Sean as well as Kathy.

What does this show? On my analysis of last night's episode:

Robert is next in line to be booted.
Vee, since she is just outside the "inner circle", goes next.
F4 is Paschal, Neleh, Kathy, Sean
Beyond that it gets really tough because Pappy is loyal to everyone. (Isn't he just the most loyal player since Rudy and the most charming since TBird!)

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... janisella 05-03-02 1
 RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... Bebo 05-03-02 2
   RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... samiam 05-03-02 3
       RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... Bebo 05-03-02 5
       RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... Q 05-03-02 12
           RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... SurvivinDawg 05-03-02 13
 RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... Cin 05-03-02 4
   RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... bergdogg 05-03-02 6
       RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... potatochip 05-03-02 7
           RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... Tumbler 05-03-02 9
       RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misd... frisky 05-03-02 8
           Respect and Ego Bebo 05-03-02 10
 A "Hollow"-Point Bullet For This... SurvivinDawg 05-03-02 11
   RE: A "Hollow"-Point Bullet For Thi... Bebo 05-03-02 14

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janisella 698 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 11:43 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
At this point, everyone is in trouble. Once they oust Robert, they have to start cannabalizing each other. These people are together 24 hours a day and are hungry, tired, dirty and on each others' nerves. I'm sure there was plenty of footage of just about everyone complaining about everyone else; we just saw what MB wanted us to see, which indicates:

Neleh will be the first one cannabilized and MB is setting the stage for it; or

Neleh is safe for awhile and MB wants us to be surprised at who goes first.

MB has been known to set things up both ways, so we'll have to wait and see.

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 11:46 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
What I got out of that is that Neleh isn't the clear-cut final 2 danger that we may have thought she was.

I'm not the only one who's speculated about not wanting to be in a final 2 with her. Now, I'm not so sure. The sugar overdose, plus the perception that she's not carrying her weight around the camp, could actually make her the cute young Mamakim of the final 2. Kathy sees her working her sweetness to ride Pappy's coattails, but I don't see the folks on the jury rewarding that behavior.

We know Paschal would vote to give her the million, but would any of the others? Or would they instead vote for one of the following:
- Someone who fought back from the brink of elimination to stay in the game.
- Someone who worked hard to bring food for the tribe.
- Someone who performed well in challenges.

Kathy may decide to stick with N/P for a final three with the intention of taking Neleh with her if she wins final IC. Granted, that would be her only way of making the final 2 in that alliance, but she'd be in the same boat with S/V.

fluent in Sarcastic, Blahblah, and Mockery

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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 12:23 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
I think we're trying to use logic again when they DON'T.

In S1, Kelly had to decide between Rich and Rudy in the final two; she picked Rich because she thought she had a shot at beating him to win the game.

In the next two, it wasn't about who they thought they could beat, or who they should take into the final two with them.
In S2, Colby chose Tina, when Keith was clearly the choice to make if he wanted to WIN. In S3, MamaKim chose Ethan over Lex for final 2, and you can't imagine she chose Ethan because she thought she could BEAT him. In the past two shows, it's apparent that you bring with you not someone you're sure you can beat, but rather someone you wouldn't mind losing to, if you lost.

Yes, it's stupid. But that's how they've played it, and I don't see that changing now.

"You are a fluke of the Universe. You have no right to be here. And whether you can hear it or not, the Universe is laughing behind your back." - Tony Hendra, Deteriorata

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 12:51 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
In S3, MamaKim chose Ethan over Lex for final 2, and you can't imagine she chose Ethan because she thought she could BEAT him.

In her post-game interviews, she made it clear she knew she was screwed with either choice, so she knew she was picking the winner.

In the past two shows, it's apparent that you bring with you not someone you're sure you can beat, but rather someone you wouldn't mind losing to, if you lost.

Yes, it's stupid. But that's how they've played it, and I don't see that changing now.

If Paschal wins the final IC, then you're right, that's exactly how he would do it.

But say we do have a final 3 of K/N/P...we know N/P choose each other, but who would Kathy pick? Paschal's well-liked and has done well in challenges. Neleh's sweet but weaker. Kathy would feel that she at least had an argument going against her. I also think Kathy would pick a woman over a man, because on some level that would be a victory beating out all of the men.

Most of the iterations would bring up the Tina/Colby situation that you brought up before, though. If S/V or N/P are in the final three, and one of those wins final IC, then it's pretty straight-forward who's going with, because as you've said, they'd want their partner in crime to win if they can't. Kathy and Robert the wildcards would provide the interesting speculation in that regard.

fluent in Sarcastic, Blahblah, and Mockery

'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!

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Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 03:10 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
I object to the yes its stupid comment.

First of all, has any one here ever been on survivor? I would mortgage my houses if the answer is yes, so no one knows if it was truly stupid from an "in-game" as opposed to an uninformed spectator (as everyone truly is since we only see what is shown to us on a platter by CBS) viewpoint.

I think picking someone you would not mind losing to, rather than risking losing to someone that would bother you till the day you die, would be much worse. You also never know if picking someone you think you can beat would backfire. The jury could say, well well well, don't they think they have it in the bank, well lets just see about That!

Not to mention the saying: Money comes and Money goes, but what I have will last a lifetime.

And remember everyone:

Youth and Wisdom rarely go hand in hand.

Attack away..

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 03:35 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
Hi, Rude Awakening. I'll let Webby know you're here.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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Cin 843 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 12:28 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
I really think Kathy would stick with Sean and Vee when it got down to 5. Kathy stands a much better chance winning the money if she goes up against one of these two at the last TC. Everyone on the Jury would be old Rotu, and all of them came to like or admire Kathy for something.

Just my thoughts
Cin

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 01:23 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
I really don't think so. Kathy has a double sided dagger no matter which way she goes. If she faces Neleh, she may get Sean's vote, but I don't think she will get many more. If she faces Paschal, I think she loses 7-0. Paschal has played the best game so far.

Now if she faces Sean or Vee, she does have a better chance of winning, but sh ewill still lose, IMO. Facing either of them, she may get Tammy and Robert's vote, but that would be it. John would admire how they have done, and vote for them, cause they started with nothing and got to there.

So really, Kathy has to work to get the votes no matter which way she chooses. Of course, this may be a mute point if S/V/N/P vote her out 4-1.


BUD SELIG SUCKS!!!! SAVE THE TWINS!!!

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potatochip 7 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 01:51 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
<<If she faces Paschal, I think she loses 7-0>>

I think she would at least get John's vote in this situation. Remember Paschal giving his word to John that he would not vote for him? John was completely confident that Paschal would keep his word, and was shocked and betrayed when Paschal voted for him at the TC. John would definitely not want Paschal to win the million. Neleh hasn't really openly betrayed anyone, so the jury could go either way with her. So at least Kathy could count on John's vote, and hope that Tammy and Robert would be just as upset at Pappy's betrayal.

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Tumbler 108 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 02:16 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
I usually just vote here, but I wanted to put out another path that the game could take.

I think The General could actually be in a good position. When I think about who they should vote out next, initially Robert is the best choice. BUT, at this point in the game(1-in-6 chance of being a millionaire), it may not be in the best interest of S/V to vote out Robert. If they take out Robert next, S/V are next, with no real shot at the cash, unless they are able to recruit Kathy(which is probably the most likely scenario). Also, Tammy on The Early Show said that when she talked to Vee to “feel her out”, she did say that Vee wasn’t ready to make the switch YET. We all know Vee has no problem making a switch.

If Sean really is thinking in this game, he should know that it is time to try get R/K to vote out Vee. Kathy could certainly convince N/P that it is time to take out Vee, and do so without exposing a new alliance. And Sean should have no problem voting out Vee since she betrayed him earlier on(voting for Rob). It would buy enough time to gain the advantage(avoid the tie) over N/P, so they can take them out next.

In my opinion K/S are the ones to watch, and Robert just might be in the right place at the right time. S/R could have a hidden “New York Alliance”, and Kathy will eventually be the odd-ball again and may want to take part to better her chances in the Final 2 pairing. It could be a long shot, but I thought I would put it out there.

Tumbler

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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 02:10 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Neleh: In Trouble or just Misdirection"
Yes, Sean and Vee came into Rotu as outsiders and started with nothing at the time of the switch.

Kathy, however, started as an outsider *on day one* of the game, in old Rotu, and if she makes it to the final two, most of the people on the jury, ex-old-Rotu, will remember how Kathy debuted in the game. I think if in the final two, Kathy will get respect votes for making it so far. She would've bitten the dust at the merge if she hadn't immunized herself.

Past Survivors have shown that at the end of the day, despite hard feelings and emotions, the winner gets respect votes.

Neleh is liked (in spite of the way she is currently being edited) but I'm not so sure that she is respected by the current members of the would-be jury.

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 02:25 PM (EST)
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10. "Respect and Ego"
subtitle: I Got Beat By a Girl

Past Survivors have shown that at the end of the day, despite hard feelings and emotions, the winner gets respect votes.

Neleh is liked (in spite of the way she is currently being edited) but I'm not so sure that she is respected by the current members of the would-be jury.

There are some strong egos on that jury already, and are destined that have more join them. They get to decide who wins a million dollars, and who gets to represent them as the sole survivor. Respect is huge.

- S1: They may not have liked Richard, but they respected the fact that he was there to play and outplayed them.
- S2: Strong in the alliance building, and it also didn't look bad to be represented by a triathlete.
- S3: MamaKim knew she was toast over either Ethan or Lex because of the respect they earned in how they played. Winning two challenges at the end to hold on didn't change that view for the jury -- they did not want to hold her up as "their" survivor.

I can see the Rotu 4 appreciating the maneuvering she did to vote them out. But will they really want to admit to the world that they were bested by a 21-year-old girl? From a sheer ego standpoint, they may favor any of the other players, because of the "survivor image" they want to be associated with.

fluent in Sarcastic, Blahblah, and Mockery

'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 03:02 PM (EST)
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11. "A "Hollow"-Point Bullet For This..."
Okay, let me fire a "hollow"-point bullet at this whole "Evil Neleh" crap that See-BS is throwing at us.

In addition to your excellent observations, JohnMC, allow me to add this:

1) The See-BS website throws the Neleh-target-on-her-back thing at us. IN ADDITION, the poll question is about Neleh.

2) The title of "The Princess" we now know came from Sean's referral to Neleh as a "princess." Clearly, SeeBS wants us to remember Sean's remark and so look at Neleh as a target.

3) Tammy's Early Show interview featured LOTS of trash talking about Neleh (but not Pappy).

4) Almost the whole of last night's program featured Neleh, Neleh, Neleh, and not in a positive light.

This is all (IMHO) very classic MB misdirection on the order of the "All-Female Alliance" in Survivor III last year. It's MB's last major misdirection run until we get to the finale.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-02, 04:16 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: A "Hollow"-Point Bullet For This..."
3) Tammy's Early Show interview featured LOTS of trash talking about Neleh (but not Pappy).

4) Almost the whole of last night's program featured Neleh, Neleh, Neleh, and not in a positive light.

At this point, it's interesting that MB would take a positively portrayed contestant and show her in a negative light. Usually, this is the time to redeem or show the qualities that would make the person a winner.

I think this might be a way of showing us the differences between PandN so that we understand why Paschal gets farther than Neleh. It's been hard seeing them as individuals based on the portrayal at the beginning and middle of the game, but at some point there has to be a choice between them.

fluent in Sarcastic, Blahblah, and Mockery

'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!

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