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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-01-02, 01:49 PM (EST) "Boot theory: Why not Kathy?" Here I go again, getting on that shaky, breaky limb thinking about things that just make me look silly. But... what if Kathy is tonight's boot? I'm not saying she IS, but consider these items: It assumes, of course, that Tammy wins IC. (and the new Paschal court schedule info isn't anything) Reasons for: 1) Resentment over the IC. MAYBE Tammy could generate resentment. MAYBE Sean could. But... there is only one person who really might unintentionally generate resentment blabbing her mouth about the RC: Kathy. 2) Of the bootees, who's the bigger IC threat? The General? Or Kathy, who has IC and RC victories to her credit already... 3) OFG Theory: Kathy is shown trying to catch food. She's shown, but not negatively. 4) Kathy was being redeemed in the recrap episode, and her image is generally rehabilitated. In addition, her story arc could come to an end now. 5) Kathy has not been shown to be in a strong alliance with Paschal and Neleh, or anyone else. Granted, Kathy may be in tight enough with P/N and or S/V not to be considered... BUT, the way she's been searching for an alliance (and being disappointed by Zoe, etc.) shows she doesn't FEEL all that secure. Hence, she may not be. 6) IF (and it's a huge IF) someone turns and allies with Tammy and Da General, who would they target? Paschal? Doubt it. Sweetpea? Possibly, but more likely the IC threat: Kathy. In addition, I expect Tammy and Da General to play the game and try to sway one of the pairs (S/V or P/N). If Da General plays it cool and keeps friendly with them, they may get rid of the irritant to their harmony (see: blabbermouth, No. 1 above). 7) Last week I (and others) failed to see Zoe like Brandon from S-III: playing both ends against the middle and getting burned (granted Brandon's was a bit more intentional, but you get the idea). After Brandon was waxed, the rulers (Boran in S-III) turned to the outsider who was a hard worker, once unpopular but rehabilitated, and an IC threat: Frank. I see parallels. Kathy, once unpopular (almost got 100 votes to be waxed by the voters of this board for Ep. 2), now fairly redeemed, and still a threat. Reasons against: 1) the only thing I can think of in the way of direct spoilage is Kathy's weight loss. Has she lost enough yet? 2) If you think Kathy won't go on the cruise trip, then most of this shatters like a crystal bulb on a concrete sidewalk. 3) YOU TELL ME!!!! (Prove me wrong.) 4) The new Paschal schedule spoiler. Working on confirmation of that now. "Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy? hrc2u 05-01-02 1    Birthdays can be bad luck JeffGator 05-01-02 8        RE: Birthdays can be bad luck Spidey 05-01-02 10            RE: Birthdays can be bad luck PepeLePew13 05-01-02 14  RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy? PagongRatEater 05-01-02 2    RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy? PepeLePew13 05-01-02 4  RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy? Bebo 05-01-02 3    My only reason why Kathy stays weltek 05-01-02 5        RE: My only reason why Kathy stays SurvivinDawg 05-01-02 6            RE: My only reason why Kathy stays George Tirebiter 05-01-02 9                I'm not crazy about the poeple left... JeffGator 05-01-02 11  SurvivinDawg you've changed my mind... JeffGator 05-01-02 7    T/R's conversation w/ N/P Spidey 05-01-02 12    RE: SurvivinDawg you've changed my ... SurvivinDawg 05-01-02 13  RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy? cowboyroo 05-02-02 15  RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy? I_AM_HE 05-02-02 16    Alliance of 5 dabo 05-02-02 17

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hrc2u 146 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-01-02, 02:20 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy?" Dawg, I like how you think. I've been thinking about how soon will the SupMu 5 would last. 1) Its been pointed out that after Robert left the discussion with Pappy and Neleh, Tammy stuck around. Did Tammy make a deal to save herself? 2) I don't see Pascal willing to vote Sean off just yet, so soon after their meal together. 3) What if Tammy wins IC this week and gives it to Robert, knowing that Neleh, Pascal, Robert and Sean (Pascal securing Sean's vote) won't vote her off. (Pascal reason's with Sean that Kathy is an immunity threat). 4) I think they would spare Vee since its her birthday and she is not an Immunity threat. But given all this, it would seem that the Survivors would be doing a lot of thinking. But I'm sure Neleh and Tammy the great thinkers are capable, of such plotting. hrc2u   Top

JeffGator 1401 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 05-01-02, 04:37 PM (EST) 8. "Birthdays can be bad luck" I think they would spare Vee since its her birthday --just wanted to note that Richard Hatch was almost booted on his birthday (if it wasn't for Sean's alphabetic voting he would have been), Frank was close to being booted (but Linda took the bullet), and if I'm not mistaken i believe that there were others that were booted on or close to their birthday. Can someone back me up here? Richard Hatch/Tina Wesson/Ethan Zohn/Kathy O'Brien "There's some milk in the fridge that's about to go bad...and there it goes."--Bobby Hill --Pappy's getting a little happy   Top

Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-01-02, 04:53 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Birthdays can be bad luck" I also believe Kimmi from S2 was booted the day b/f her birthday. She had planned to do the birthday suit thing that following day. Maybe they found out about her plan?   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-01-02, 05:25 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Birthdays can be bad luck" Maybe they got a 'whiff' of her plans and booted her in the name of protecting Australia's environment. (sorry couldn't resist) However, for what it's worth, I think at this point in the game, taking someone's birthday into consideration is worth diddly squat -- are you going to keep someone around a bit longer at this stage and potentially lose out on a million dollars just because it's Vee's birthday? I think not. GO HABS! "I'm the General and that's that." Robert DeCanio, April 11/02   Top

PagongRatEater 12996 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-01-02, 02:25 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy?" There are some valid points here and definitely it IS worth considering. I think that in the endgame that Kathy will be on the outside looking it, but I don't see her going before Robert or Tammy. > >It assumes, of course, that Tammy >wins IC. (and the new >Paschal court schedule info isn't >anything) > I think that Tammy HAS to go this week if she does not win immunity (I'm betting against it). >Reasons for: >1) Resentment over the IC. >MAYBE Tammy could generate resentment. > MAYBE Sean could. >But... there is only one >person who really might unintentionally >generate resentment blabbing her mouth >about the RC: Kathy. > Possible, but her track record of sharing the Snickers bar and wising up politically since day one would make that a long shot. >2) Of the bootees, who's the >bigger IC threat? The >General? Or Kathy, who >has IC and RC victories >to her credit already... Still - she's not seen as a physical player, but there is something to it. She flew a kite and stood on a board. Not too terribly threatening. >3) OFG Theory: Kathy is >shown trying to catch food. > She's shown, but not >negatively. She had very little face time last week though, but she looks to be more featured this week. >4) Kathy was being redeemed in >the recrap episode, and her >image is generally rehabilitated. >In addition, her story arc >could come to an end >now. True. >5) Kathy has not been shown >to be in a strong >alliance with Paschal and Neleh, >or anyone else. Granted, >Kathy may be in tight >enough with P/N and or >S/V not to be considered... >BUT, the way she's been >searching for an alliance (and >being disappointed by Zoe, etc.) >shows she doesn't FEEL all >that secure. Hence, she >may not be. Definitely true, but it is paranoia if they are really out to get you. >6) IF (and it's a huge >IF) someone turns and allies >with Tammy and Da General, >who would they target? >Paschal? Doubt it. Sweetpea? > Possibly, but more likely >the IC threat: Kathy. >In addition, I expect Tammy >and Da General to play >the game and try to >sway one of the pairs >(S/V or P/N). If >Da General plays it cool >and keeps friendly with them, >they may get rid of >the irritant to their harmony >(see: blabbermouth, No. 1 >above). I think the most likely turncoats are S/V. Kathy COULD switch, but without anyone else, it would not help her to do so. She is certainly the odd one out in their alliance...and would be in any alliance, that's why I really don't see her making it to the Final TC. >7) Last week I (and others) >failed to see Zoe like >Brandon from S-III: playing >both ends against the middle >and getting burned (granted Brandon's >was a bit more intentional, >but you get the idea). > After Brandon was waxed, >the rulers (Boran in S-III) >turned to the outsider who >was a hard worker, once >unpopular but rehabilitated, and an >IC threat: Frank. >I see parallels. Kathy, >once unpopular (almost got 100 >votes to be waxed by >the voters of this board >for Ep. 2), now fairly >redeemed, and still a threat. Frank was not allied with the dominant alliance and Kathy is. No reason to rock the boat on that until you have eliminated Tammy and Robert. If you start to show divided loyalties or untrustworthiness at this point in the game you better bring your bag to TC. It would throw the whole alliance into jeapardy unless they eliminated the people outside the alliance first. No one has the votes to break off from the alliance at this point - only pairs can do it effectively and as we noticed, Kathy is not paired. Some good logic in what is certainly turning out to be a clue free week. I think that points to someone obvious being the bootee (Tammy or Robert) otherwise MB would be hyping this to the SKIES! Follwoing the Hollow Theory ;) - I'm going to stick with the obvious. If you are right then you definitely will deserve some serious kudos   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-01-02, 03:18 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy?" >Some good logic in what is certainly turning out to be >a clue free week. I think that points to someone >obvious being the bootee (Tammy or Robert) otherwise MB >would be hyping this to the SKIES! Follwoing the >Hollow Theory ;) - I'm going to stick with the >obvious. I'm with you here. We saw a major hyping-up of last week's episode as a major power shift and totally unpredictable... and it was, because MB knew that most people would expect someone else (other than Zoe) to get the boot. This time around, there's not much drama being played up at all other than Vee's tears, so IMO this means it's going to be a predictable episode. I just don't see Kathy as a boot possibility at this point in time. Sure, her story arc could end at any time and she's been rehabilitated over the past few weeks (especially the recrap ep.) however she seems to have learned to stay away from conflicts with others and tone down her act... so while she certainly hasn't been muzzled totally and can let something slip to annoy others, I don't think she will -- or she would have been edited as still an annoying person as foreshadowing of her fall. Right now... I see Tammy, Robert, Neleh and Paschal as better boot possibilities ahead of Kathy. Truly, any of the 7 could go, nobody is completely safe. GO HABS! "I'm the General and that's that." Robert DeCanio, April 11/02   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-01-02, 03:04 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy?" >But... there is only one person who really might unintentionally generate resentment blabbing her mouth about the RC: Kathy. I will concede that Kathy can run her mouth. But she quieted up quite nicely when she saw a target on her back a few episodes ago. She's been trying to play the game, so I don't see her losing sight of the jealousy aspect of winning RCs...especially when others are hungry. >5) Kathy has not been shown to be in a strong alliance with Paschal and Neleh, or anyone else. I think the hand on Sean's thigh shows more than recognition that Sean's another young buck. There's a bond there. I don't think Sean's ready to let her go just yet. She's talked so much about honesty and made a promise to him. Cutting her off at this point, while keeping Tammy and the General, would be losing a nearly sure jury vote in his favor. I could see her going all "rat and snake" on him during the final jury if he cut her loose this quickly. >6) IF (and it's a huge IF) someone turns and allies with Tammy and Da General, who would they target? Paschal? Doubt it. Sweetpea? Possibly, but more likely the IC threat: Kathy. If Tammy and General can convince Sean and Vee to turn, I think they'll go after Neleh. The only way to break up PaschalandNeleh is to vote off one of them. Given the bonding that Sean and Paschal did on the RC, Tammy and Robert would have an easier time convincing Sean to go after Neleh. And since none of them would want to face a sweet, young student from a large family in front of the jury, it would be an easier sell. If Tammy and General can convince PaschalandNeleh to turn (assuming that the conversation kept going after what we saw), then I think T/R would have Sean as a first choice, with Kathy second. Again, the S/P RC bond might make Paschal hesitant to vote for Sean, but I think his bond with Neleh would win out over that. Then again, they might decide the easier argument would be to go after Kathy, so I can see where you're arguing from there. >I see parallels. Kathy, once unpopular (almost got 100 votes to be waxed by the voters of this board for Ep. 2), now fairly redeemed, and still a threat. Redeemed, yes, but also connected to enough people in the tribe that I don't think there's a parallel with Frank, who really only had a tie to Teresa at this point. Kim P. was still with him because she had no other choice. fluent in Sarcastic, Blahblah, and Mockery   Top

weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-01-02, 03:19 PM (EST) 5. "My only reason why Kathy stays" My only real logic in why Kathy stays is that S/V/N/P all have said they want the honest individuals there til the end to duke it out. Kathy fits that description. After all, they booted Gina to save Kathy. They must have some bond with her.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-01-02, 03:53 PM (EST) 6. "RE: My only reason why Kathy stays" I thought about the Paschal/Neleh vote to keep Kathy over Gina, but I think there were a couple of things involved there that don't apply here: 1) P/N/K thought they still had a Rotu alliance going, and honored that by booting Gina. I am willing to bet that if P/N knew then what they know now about John/Tammy/Robert/Zoe, they would've kept Gina and booted Kathy. 2) Somewhat related to No.1 above, but somewhat not: P/N weren't really playing the game the same way before, as they are now, and the dynamic of the play is different (they know Sean and Vee better, they can see who is allied to who, etc.) "Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-01-02, 04:48 PM (EST) 9. "RE: My only reason why Kathy stays" My own scientific reasoning says Kathy will stay if only because I want her gone so badly. Seriously, there's also the EYEmail thing--she was the profile this week, and I still think that makes her less likely to go. I suppose we're well past the time when MB should've had us primed for Kathy to go--I really expected she would go in much the same way Jerri did. . . he had us practically tearing our hair out, screaming "Vote her OFF already!" and when she did go, we saw it coming a mile away. The fact that he has tried to redeem Kathy from this brink bodes ill for her going at all, IMHO. . . Of course, at this point I don't think ANY of these people deserve to win! GT Always be sincere, even when you don't mean it.   Top

JeffGator 1401 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 05-01-02, 05:03 PM (EST) 11. "I'm not crazy about the poeple left either" Of course, at this point I don't think ANY of these people deserve to win! --I couldn't agree with you more, I know this is real off topic but all my favorites are already out of the game (Gina, Gabe, John, Hunter). I don't really like anyone that is left. I am rooting for Tammy even though I hated her until now. I'm still not crazy about her, but I do think she deserves it and i actually think Kathy does too (even though I hate her). Both women have done well at the challenges so far and I think both are trying hard. I like Paschal and Vee okay I guess, but I don't think they deserve to win. And if Sean wins I'm going to have to buy a new TV set after all the things I will have thrown at my old one. Richard Hatch/Tina Wesson/Ethan Zohn/Kathy O'Brien "There's some milk in the fridge that's about to go bad...and there it goes."--Bobby Hill --Pappy's getting a little happy   Top

JeffGator 1401 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 05-01-02, 04:27 PM (EST) 7. "SurvivinDawg you've changed my mind, I now think Kathy will get the boot, and I think you're an f-ing genius, and also you give Georgia a good name, and I aced my sociology final by the way" I don't think there is going to be an immunity challenge this episode. The previews clearly show us the possibility of Kathy getting eaten by a shark. If that were the case then Kathy would automatically be the 10th person off the show. Now seriously, you raised some awesome points SurvivinDawg and i would like to make some of my own on why I agree that Kathy could be the boot. I'm not sure if anyone has already said some of these things because I haven't gotten a chance to read anyone else's posts yet, so sorry if i'm being redundant. Before Episode 9, everyone was saying that there were 4 two person alliances--Tammy/Robert, Sean/Vecepia, Neleh/Paschal, and Kathy/Zoe. Kathy and Zoe may not have seemed as close as the others, but in all of Zoe's interviews she has said that she was closest to Kathy out of all the survivors, which would indicate that they did have an alliance of some sort. Now Kathy did vote for Zoe, but she was probably just doing so to try to fit in with the others, much like when Vecepia voted for Rob, and when Zoe voted for John. That would make Kathy the biggest outsider right now. I just don't think she's that close to Paschal/Neleh, Sean/Vecepia, and of course Tammy/Robert. If you noticed, when Tammy/Robert talked to Paschal/Neleh last episode about trying to team up with them again, Kathy was nowhere in sight. It was almost like she wasn't really ever a part of the Paschal/Neleh alliance and has just been voting with them to fit in. I mean, don't you think Kathy would be there for such an important discussion? And i also agree with the person who said that maybe Tammy formed some sort of an agreement with Paschal/Neleh once Robert walked away. It's interesting that they didn't show us what was discussed at that point. I guess MB can't show us everything, but you think he would have shown a confessional by someone that would have summed up what happened next. Kathy is a big big big immunity challenge, I don't care what anyone says even though she is not seen as a physical threat. She's already won 2 challenges (almost won the last reward challenge) and that is what the contestants will consider the most when deciding who the biggest immunity threat is. Of course, this Kathy boot theory is going to be much more likely to happen if Tammy wins immunity again, since Tammy is an even bigger immunity threat, but I think even with someone else winning, Kathy may still be voted off (or eaten by a shark). Richard Hatch/Tina Wesson/Ethan Zohn/Kathy O'Brien "There's some milk in the fridge that's about to go bad...and there it goes."--Bobby Hill --Pappy's getting a little happy   Top

Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-01-02, 05:05 PM (EST) 12. "T/R's conversation w/ N/P" > >And i also agree with the >person who said that maybe >Tammy formed some sort of >an agreement with Paschal/Neleh once >Robert walked away. It's >interesting that they didn't show >us what was discussed at >that point. I guess >MB can't show us everything, >but you think he would >have shown a confessional by >someone that would have summed >up what happened next. > My recollection is that BOTH Pappy and Neleh had confessionals about that discussion, both saying T/R tried to convince us they weren't really w/ John... and we're not buying it one bit. I thinks pieces of the confessionals were sprinkled throughout the scene of the conversation, but the N/P confessionals definitely occurred afterwards. Of course, that is not to say that T and/or R didn't subsequently convince N/P of anything, just that it didn't happen in THAT conversation we were shown part of. The survivors have no reason to lie about strategy in confessionals, so at least at that point T/R had made no headway.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-01-02, 05:12 PM (EST) 13. "RE: SurvivinDawg you've changed my mind..." LAST EDITED ON 05-01-02 AT 05:15 PM (EST) JG, if that isn't the longest title line in the history of SB.com, I don't know what possibly could be. Fair warning, though: I put these thoughts out, but I'm not by any means convinced Kathy WILL go this time around. TO EVERYONE: One more FOR KATHY: She was fairly UTR last week. One more AGAINST KATHY: The "Tale Of Two Cities" episode title may suggest two alliance, and Kathy having to choose between them. P.S. JG, congrats on the sociology exam. "Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 05-02-02, 01:24 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy?" SD- I was just going to post a thread about a possible Kathy boot after seeing the commercial for the bizillionth time and it had to do with the phrase "How long can you hold your breath"....Even though this obviously has something to do with the RC, it is put as the "big question" of the episode...since when is RC the big question of the episode... So, Lightbulb....How long can you hold your breath compared to how many challenges can Tammy go on winning, and How long can you hold your breath for a Kathy boot....about 10 episodes! She was a high vote getter over and over and over again and now is off the radar screen... I am also curious about the Jeff Varner boot list....Peter, Patricia, Hunter were the first three he picked....Zoe, Kathy and Robert were his second three....Zoe was the first boot of the second half of Survivors (Boot 9 of 16).... I had always felt he had inside info...getting three boots in a row right (all from the same tribe nonetheless) and picking the strongest male as the third bootee were very odd and too coincidental for coincidence.... I can also see Kathy fitting the Princess title....Gina wrote "Miss Kathy" on her ballot after all, and the shark scene was all to reminiscent of the "come on over and see what I found" comment in Episode 2.... But then again with all the wild and very creative theories going around due to lack of information, Ithink we're more likely due for the obvious....   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-02-02, 01:26 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Boot theory: Why not Kathy?" LAST EDITED ON 05-02-02 AT 01:30 AM (EST) I don't know...some of this has been said in previous posts above, but... I think Kathy is fairly insulated because she isn't in a pairing. The other survivors are more likely to try and break up another voting bloc than go after an important, and more importantly, individual, swing vote I especially don't think Sean would vote her or Paschal out right now. Add to that there was absolutely no discussion about booting Kathy last episode. Tammy was the obvious choice, and once she won immunity, Neleh's comments focused solely on Robert or Zoe. And T/R did not approach them about voting off Kathy- or even Zoe- but about voting off Sean or Vee. I don't think Kathy is even on the radar screen right now as far as a possible vote. I don't think any two pairs that entered into a final 4 "alliance" would take out Kathy before the other pair- because they wouldn't want to run the risk of a stalemate at F4. They'd hope they could sway Kathy to break up the other pair at F5- unless one pair thought Kathy would absolutely side with the other, that is, which I'm not sure they do right now   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-02-02, 01:56 AM (EST) 17. "Alliance of 5" Kathy is either the determinant vote if the alliance of 5 holds together for the final five, or the fifth wheel the others boot at the final five. Paschal and Neleh might feel they are safe keeping Kathy around, on account of Old Rotu and New Maraamu loyalty. Sean and Vee may not be in such a comfortable position, but it was Kathy who made the bridge that allowed the alliance of five to take dominance (well, and the Rotu 4 exposing their hand while they were still outnumbered), so I think they would be inclined to keep Kathy around for a bit longer since they are outnumbered by Old Rotu no matter how you cut it. The only possibility I see this time for a Kathy boot is if Tammy and Robert sucker Sean and Vee into voting with them, but that seems like a big if. One would think S/V/T/R would sooner go after Paschal or Neleh than Kathy, since P/N have the tightest pairing and Kathy is essentially flying solo. BTW, congrats, Jeff, on acing the exam. ARRRRRRR!!!!   Top

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