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"State of the Spoiling - Episode 10"
jayseae 68 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-01-02, 10:07 AM (EST)
 
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"State of the Spoiling - Episode 10" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-01-02 AT 01:11 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 05-01-02 AT 11:24 AM (EST) Welcome, once again, to the thread that never ends! Thanks, NightScribe, for last week's SOTS!
It's Whackin' Time If you missed last week's episode, head on over to the east coast spoiler thread or read anotherkim's great summary or even AyaK's closed-caption feed, so you can get up-to-speed before spoiling this week's show. What We Know We know that Pappy and Sean are awfully close (thanks Gator, you are sick, and you are my idol  ).  As is usual, we've got Bungler's vidcaps from the preview, but this week there doesn't seem to be a lot of good information in there. We do pick up the nature of the RC, but there don't seem to be any clues about the IC. Bungler also provides the new set of vidcaps, and we see several more pictures, but not a lot more information. The pictures we know, what they tell us we don't know. There is a lot of good speculation in these threads, so you may want to at least browse them - but it doesn't seem as if any hard evidence is emerging. RC: The reward challenge this week is again centered in the water, and appears to have the survivors beginning from a floating dock. This dock has received some attention due to the colored squares found on it - this may indicate some sort of elimination process from one level to the next, or it might just be leftover pieces from earlier challenges, arranged in a conveniently interesting pattern. The contest then proceeds to take our survivors to a buoy, where they apparently dive to retrieve an item, which they then must move, underwater, to another location - perhaps back to the dock, perhaps to shore. No pairs this week, but speculation has eliminated certain possibilities. Pappy, Robert and Sean are pretty much universally dismissed for their frailty, lack of lung capacity and (missing) swimming skills, respectively. Meanwhile Kathy, Tammy and potentially Neleh are looked to for the win, mostly because of better lung capacity, physical skills or prior training, respectively. Vee seems to be dismissed entirely. IC: We don't seem to have any information on the Immunity Challenge or its winner. What We Think We Know While Robert talked about burning wood over the next four days, it's quite possible that there's a very good explanation for the timeframe, meaning it might not help us much. Luckily, there's also a theory about another capture that seems to indicate at least a Tammy/Vee RC win or perhaps that Tammy and Vee are next in line for the boot. Though evidence here is a bit inconclusive, you might want to take a look, as I haven't seen this discussion elsewhere. It may very well be the case that the title of this week's episode refers to the name of the cruise ship and not a survivor contestant. In fact, we've got this one twice. Edit #2:
In a relatively new development, Paschal's court schedule has been determined (to some degree). So check it out and throw your lot with the appropriate camp. Do you think Pappy is the boot this week? What We Don't Know We no longer seem to have much idea of the alliances on the island. The four alliances of two theory has been revisited to update the power struggle on the island, but we don't seem to be in much danger of a tie vote any time soon. Zoe proved to the world that she's just as big a bore off the island as she was on the island. RC winners and resentment tells us about how the others might be feeling based on repetitive challenge winners. This week's SeeBS misdirection adds more thoughts to the mix, as do a whole slew of different theories. We've got an immunity run by Tammy, Neleh as the mastermind, thoughts on how the jury works, and the water=power theory again raises its head. Episode titles aren't immune from theories, and we see both the Marquesan Vacation (#11) and Tale of Two Cities (#12) being debated hotly as well. In the What Did We Do Wrong department, Naked started a potentially interesting thread on spoiling strategy, so we can hopefully learn from our mistakes. Several posts put forth explaining the reasons of those who voted how they did last week. Not necessarily directly helpful for this week, but if you subscribe to a particular strategy, or are looking for one, this might be a good place to start. Also, be sure not to miss the secrets of the spoilers, where the clown and others reveal how they know who is getting the boot this week. If you subscribe to the SeeBS Eyemail theory, we see this week that Neleh, Robert, Sean and Tammy have been profiled already, and now Kathy gets a turn. Still no signs of Paschal or Vee. When you're done reading and get ready to vote, here's where you can go. Survivor Blows Spoilers RC Poll Survivor Blows Spoilers IC Poll Survivor Blows Spoilers Official Vote Thread Surivor Blows Spoilers Picks to the End (PTTE) As always, please be aware of the posting guidelines. We want to hear your spoilers, but try and handle them appropriately. Thanks. Edit #1:
Finish up editing, remove "placeholder" tag at the top.
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hrc2u 146 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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05-01-02, 02:28 PM (EST)
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3. "Nicely Done." |
Jay,
WTG, Excellent job and easy to read. Thanks for all the links.
hrc2u
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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05-01-02, 04:49 PM (EST)
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4. "My GUT instinct for the week..." |
Okay... first of all I'm really sorry if this has been covered somewhere else. I haven't read anything about Survivor since last Thursday... On Friday morning, I was told that I was on the short list for a job that I applied for (and really want!!) and they flew me out on Saturday for an interview, and then I've been in communication with them all week, so Survivor has not been a priority.So... anyway, I was watching CBS last night, and I saw the new preview (which I'm sure has been discussed to death), and they're billing the reward challenge as a "who can hold their breath longest" challenge (yes... I know that there's more to it, but that's what they're billing it as). Now... for those that watched S1, we all know that holding breath favors men, who inherently have a larger lung capacity than their female counterparts. So... I really think that a man will win this. This narrows the RC winner down to Sean, Paschal, or Robert. (Despite the comments above that they are ruled out for frailty, weakness, and lack of swimming skills) Next, we have the "Two castaways enjoy a magnificent reward, but resentment grows among their stone-faced tribemates when they return and share their joyful experience with them." This means one thing, and one thing only to me. We know that Vee's birthday is on Day 28. We know the reward challenge is on Day 28. We know that Vee is homesick, and nothing would be a better birthday present than to take her along on the reward. Which of course means that the resentment is toward the person that could have taken her on the cruise, but didn't. So... who would each guy take? Sean would take Vee for her birthday... thus neither Sean nor Vee can win. Robert would take Tammy, cause he isn't really comfortable with anyone else. This could lead to resentment among the alliance of five. Paschal would take Neleh, which could lead to resentment, as well... If Tammy won, she'd probably take Robert, and Neleh would probably take Paschal, so these pairs work even if we don't assume the men must win the IC. If Vee won, there would be no resentment, and if Kathy won, she would probably take the birthday girl, having no close ally left in the game, also leading to no resentment.
Thus, I think that the cruise-ship pair will be either Robert and Tammy, or Paschal and Neleh.
Let's look at three things:
First... likelihood of winning: Neleh - weak, frail female with decreased lung capacity, but spunky Pappy - weak, but won the RC last time and was recently fed (huge bonus) plus male and large lung capacity Robert - male, large lung capacity, but large body mass leads to increased buoyancy Tammy - female, decresed lung capacity, but strong competitor
Second... commercial editing
Robert shown on surface, looking confused. Paschal shown struggling to lift rock. Both of these seem to be the typical MB pattern of editing... show the winner struggling for the preview.
Third... episode storyline
Here's the script for each episode: Person A: I'm gonna be voted out
Person B: I'm voting for A.
Person C: I hate person A.
Person D: Person A is really pissing off everyone in this tribe.
Person E: I was the target last episode, but now that 3 entire days have passed, I am safe, thanks to the stupid acts of Person A... this is the greatest experience of my life, and I'd do it again in a heartbeat.
Jeff Probst: Person E... you have been voted out of the tribe. So... if "resentment" is growing toward the RC winners, it clearly means that they are safe. Thus, there are two possible storylines to this episode: 1) R and/or T are targets. They aren't in the alliance... they don't care about Vee's birthday... they are so evil... wait... the alliance has fractured, and Sean is voted out of the tribe!!! 2) P/N are targets... they don't care about Vee's birthday... they are gloating about their win... they must be split up, because they are too friendly... wait... the alliance sticks togeter, as always, and votes out T or R.
Now... looking at all the facts, I'm thinking storyline two has the most credance... there is no reason for the alliance to fracture yet, because Kathy is a free agent, and either alliance of two could end up with her. Additionally, after splitting up T/R, there will be another free agent up for grabs, leading to a potential 3-3 tie next week (or a 4-2 vote, with one alliance of 2-1-1 and another alliance of 2).
Additionally, we know that Sean is safe for another day or two, since this is just now the second week of December, and he's safe through the week (or am I remembering this wrong???) So... those are my current thoughts... like I said... I haven't read anything about Survivor all week, so all these theories have probably been shot down on other threads, but I wanted to post them here, to spark potential discussion... especially since I take huge issue with the comments that the men are unlikely to win this challenge... if there's one thing that I'm SURE of, it's that a man will win. ...oh... and great job, jayseae!!! 
You never know what might be up my sleeeve... 
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jayseae 68 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-01-02, 10:16 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: My GUT instinct for the week..." |
Hey eee - good to see you. And thanks everyone for the notes. Wish there was more to go on. Likely not the place to continue this, but I don't know of a better one, so let's do it. <<Now... for those that watched S1, we all know that holding breath favors men, who inherently have a larger lung capacity than their female counterparts. So... I really think that a man will win this.>> While a sheer breath-holding contest would undoubtedly favor the men, I'm not so sure that's the only thing that matters in this challenge. It appears that the goal is to move the prize from one location to another while under water. While being able to hold your breath is certainly helpful in such a race, so to is being able to rapidly ascend, get a breath and descend again to get going. Paschal - I see Paschal having problems with this. He might do okay on the holding of the breath, but he's older than the other contestants by nearly a factor of two - it seems to me that he'll go far the first time, perhaps the second, but then the rapid rising and diving will take its toll and Pappy will not win this challenge. Robert - I've seen mentioned elsewhere that Robert is a smoker. But his SeeBS profile says that he enjoys mountain biking, weight lifting and jogging. Doesn't sound like the life of a smoker. Still, he didn't seem to do all well last week in the water, getting smoked by Sean, so he's not my first choice. Sean - I think Sean's fear of the water is either over-emphasized or non-existent after 28 days on the island. He seemed to be quite capable last week in the coconut challenge. Kathy - We know Kathy likes outdoor activities and biked across the country. Couple that with her yoga (?) training and she's likely a good breath-holder. But Kathy doesn't seem to excel at the physical aspect of things. If we're talking endurance breath-holding, perhaps. But we're again looking at the continuous ups and downs from the challenge in order to finish. Neleh - Also enjoys some outdoor activities, reportedly was a lifeguard. I've been a lifeguard, though it was ages ago - and while swimming and the like was important, it was always a stamina thing. Breath holding wasn't really involved, and neither were rapid ascents and descents. I've seen elsewhere that she's a scuba diver, which might help a bit, but I've got no confirmation. Tammy - Apparently rescued a drowning man in 1999, which at least equals Neleh's lifeguard stint in my opinion. Plus, she's in good shape, and wants to win. I've seen comments about her slacking off in order to win IC, but I'm not sure - she doesn't seem as if she'd give in. Ever. If she did, the victory wouldn't be as sweet because she'd always have that nagging suspicion in her mind. Vee - Little to no regard by anyone it seems, and though she does like sports, none seem to have much to do with the water. She also hasn't seemed to be much of a force. I'll agree with Sleeeve on this one that Vee isn't taking a boat ride, so win or tagalong, Vee isn't in my consideration for the RC. I'd likely rank the men as Sean, Robert, Paschal for likelihood of winning the RC. I'd probably rank the women as Tammy, Kathy, Neleh and Vee, respectively. Now to put the two together. I think that Tammy will outdo Sean in most any physical challenge. She's the only one who really seems intent on keeping in shape, though that could certainly be due to editing. Sean and Paschal won the coconut challenge because they got some good coconuts, not because they were particularly strong physically. Tammy has good balance on the stilts, which tells me she's probably more aware of her body than the others - which might come in handy when you are short on air and need to pop up for a breath before getting too exhausted. Spend too much time underwater and then you're on the surface gasping for air. Good knowledge of your limits will help, and I think Tammy's got the best credentials in that department. Despite the argument for lung capacity, I think there's more involved than simply holding the breath, so other factors should be considered. I'm picking Tammy for the RC win. I don't think she's taking Vee, but I'm not sure who she will take. I don't think she'll want to associate herself with the General after last week's fiasco, so perhaps we'll see a surprise pick. Sean would probably be the most controversial for her to take. Kathy might make the most sense if she's looking ahead to the "two free agent" scenario that's been posited elsewhere. Either might create resentment ashore, simply because she didn't take Vee.
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Rebel Crown 1413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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05-01-02, 05:13 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode 10" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-02-02 AT 05:14 PM (EST)<<This dock has received some attention due to the colored squares found on it - this may indicate some sort of elimination process from one level to the next, or it might just be leftover pieces from earlier challenges, arranged in a conveniently interesting pattern.>> I went back and checked the docks used in earlier challenges and did NOT see any multi-colored ones used. In E7, JP stood on a small, dark-colored dock to start the balancing challenge. In E3, during the raft race, JP stood on a dock that was larger and was not multi-colored; it was more dark brown or green. But both this one in E3 and the multi-colored one have little pieces of wood strips on the surface, like interlocking module pieces. So, it could have been the same dock, only larger and with color added to the surface. That could mean what most people think - the colors are very important in the challenge.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-02-02, 07:53 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode 10" |
Access Hollywood has said that the tribe plays an island version of Musical chairs tonight. I wonder if everytime they dive for one of those shells if one of the pretty squares is removed from the platform and when they come back up they each have to grab one? Whoever doesn't get one is out. Just a thought...
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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05-02-02, 02:39 AM (EST)
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9. "Another RC Possibility Pappy takes Sean" |
After revisiting the vidcaps, I noticed something...the standing on the beach shots look like after the challenge. Kathy and Neleh definitely look wet...
Pappy looks like he is thinking to make a decision in who he is going to take with him.... 
You can see Tammy's elbow in the N/K/V shot, so this seems to be at the same time as that was taken. K/N/V don't look too happy...Tammy is grimacing and Sean has a "Doh" look....Sean pretty much won the IC alone last time around while Pappy was running around finding more coconuts...Pappy repays Sean by taking him when Sean wanted to win and take Vee....Resentment GROWS among camp because they are all hungry and Sean/Pappy already ate 3 days ago!! OR Tammy wins and takes Pappy (in the vidcaps of Vee's Bday party, Tammy and Pappy are not shown...this could be another reason for Tammy's gloating...she is grinning for winning and takes Pappy to try to win his vote over which pisses off the rest of them.... 
I'm more inclined to go with Tammy wins and takes Pappy due to the Vee's party pics. Sean's hand is to Vee's right and Tammy-Pappy nowhere to be found....Pappy's bewildered look could be why did she pick me!
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