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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 04-26-02, 05:01 AM (EST) "Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry" LAST EDITED ON 04-26-02 AT 05:09 AM (EST) This thread is to rake a look back on our spoiling efforts from the previous week,and to discuss game strategies that worked. If you correctly picked this week, then tell us how you did it. If you missed it, explain where you might have been wrong, and formulate some new ideas. Congratulations to everyone who picked correctly in any of there picks this week. It was a hard week for spoiling, with most of us selecting the wrong boot pick, but Hey, the majority got the IC correctly. This week, we had 19 of 134 correctly pick Zoe as the boot pick Cin,MikeD,tribephyl,BMH,RoundRobin,galastarr,Seyz,idiotcowboy, heavymettle,PagongRatEater,samiam,GTmike,Peteycat,diamond, wildchickenhunter, Shay,managerr,TechNoir,oldham1992 We had 3.5 out of 39 correct picks in the RC Challenge cowboyroo,smokedog,and Wacko Jacko picked the winning team of Sean and Paschal. PagongRatEater picked Pappy and Neleh We also had 29.5 out of 48 correct picks for our IC winner SurvivaBear,JeffGator,Cin,strone,idiotcowboy,brenda1234, samboohoo,ejm92,katem,smokedog,Seyz,Stolimadras,lroy,forehead, macamrox,managerr,ShowMeTheWinner,MeToo,jancan,wendyp,sleeeve, PagongRatEater,AyaK,true,scante60a,janisella,bebekid,Kokoro, Blueville, cowboyroo said that Tammy would win, but give immunity to Robert. (I bet you where holding your breath their for a little while there.) and out of 23 posts on the PTTE this week, only 2 started correctly. janisella, galastarr One, or both of will be proven wrong next week as well as they have different picks for next week. Again, please feel free to change your picks on the PTTE thread this week, as by far the majority of us missed it. One interesting thing about the PTTE, is 18 of 23 people said that Kathy would be Our eventual winner….. Stay tuned   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    What went wrong weltek 04-26-02 1  RE: Why I picked Zoe janisella 04-26-02 2  RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry diamond 04-26-02 3  My Spoiling inadequacy Blueville 04-26-02 4  RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry NightScribe 04-26-02 5    Brainstorm JohnMc 05-01-02 14  RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry PagongRatEater 04-26-02 6  RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry shakes the clown 04-26-02 7  Crafty! Argh! cowboyroo 04-26-02 8  RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry Spidey 04-26-02 9  RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry Teddy_Bear 04-27-02 10  RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry Napalm in the Morning 04-27-02 11  RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry TechNoir 04-28-02 12    RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry Black_Cobra 04-28-02 13

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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-26-02, 08:34 AM (EST) 1. "What went wrong" Well, I think Zoe was an exception in our theory of editing. She was NEVER developed as a character, and was always left as somewhat of a mystery. Maybe that is the way she really is, or maybe that's the way MB decided to have her edited. I think her editing could have lead us down two paths: She had a stronger alliance with Kathy that we had been seeing up to that point OR she was really a b**ch that had no story and her unlikability would lead her to be voted off. I am curious to see if any of the Zoe votes from here actually thought it would unfold just like this. I think we all grabbed on to the "hidden alliance" theory because of many reasons: 1) Belief that Kathy stays around quite awhile longer. We think she needs some sort of alliance to stay. Zoe seemed most logical given the storyline of her and Zoe's "bond" shakeup lately. 2) We had never actually seen the Kathy/Zoe bond in particular until last week, and Kathy apparently thought it was a strong bond. That lead us to the obvious "why hide it" question. 3) As Robert himself said, the pecking order really did seem to be Tammy then him. I think it was the collective decision of N/P/S/V/K that Zoe was more of an immunity threat than Robert that really threw us. If we were to debate that here, I don't know if we'd ever get a clean cut decision on who was more of a threat. But, it was apparently clear to the Survivors. So I think if Zoe wasn't seen as such a threat, she may have been able to weasel herself into a strong alliance again with Kathy. Given another few days, who knows. I don't think we were completely off the mark, I just think we latched on waaay too easily to the idea of the Kathy/Zoe secret alliance and didn't take the time to examine any other possiblities. The new Pappy/Sean love was also the big shocker. No way we could've predicted that! It changes everything!   Top

janisella 698 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-26-02, 08:51 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Why I picked Zoe" Even though I had originally picked Sean to go,I picked Zoe in my ptte (and spoiler island) because of the spoiler that Zoe had just returned from Australia. I figured there was a chance she was returning to do the Early Show-Letterman-Rosie thing. BTW, I guess my question of how Pascal could change his opinion of Sean so quickly was answered with their reward challenge victory footage.   Top

diamond 2307 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 04-26-02, 12:18 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry" I'm not going to claim to be very good at spoiling - my record is mediocre at best, and I am still consistently amazed at the abilities of others on this board - but in the end, I actually thought this week was one of the simpler ones. What I usually do first is figure out who can be absolutely eliminated from being booted based on factual spoilers, or other reasons why they would be highly unlikely. Then, I focus on the editing patterns and storylines to determine who is most likely to go. I try to figure out reasons why they would vote out a particular person, but it's usually the least important factor, mainly because these people either act irrationally, stupidly, or contrary to what any of us think they should do, and also because MB often hides the real reasons. I pay zero attention to the wild speculative theories, except when proposed by a select few members of this board. Sometimes my approach works, sometimes it doesn't, but that's what I do. This week, we could definitely eliminate Sean (Snewser's spoiler) and Tammy (immunity). It seemed higly unlikely that Paschal, Neleh, Vee, or Kathy would go because it would require at least some of them breaking off and teaming up with the opposing alliace. Given the circumstances of John's boot, this seemed extremely unlikely. So who was left? Robert and Zoe. This is where the editing/storyline comes in. Many people said they did not vote for Zoe because her storyline was not developed enough, which in isolation might have been true. However, you have to compare it to Robert's storyline, which was even less well developed. As I said in the vote thread, both of them were extremely boring, and neither one was ever going to have an interesting story. Robert had had little facetime, and when he did get it, it was disjointed and random - there was no consistent theme. Zoe also had very little facetime, but she had more than Robert, and a theme had developed around her - that she was a liar. So given the choice between Zoe and Robert, it was an easy choice for me. diamond   Top

Blueville 115 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-26-02, 02:32 PM (EST) 4. "My Spoiling inadequacy" What I garnered from last weeks spoiling efforts was primarily that the 5 who had joined together to vote out John would now focus on Tammy, Robert, and Zoe. The issues I had with this were: 1) Are Pappy and Neleh really a part of this new 5 person alliance, or was Pappy’s switch a one-time-thing, and now he’s back focusing on Sean again? 2) Was Zoe really lying to Kathy and cast her vote for John to try and fool the other 5, or did she vote for John in a genuine effort to prove to Kathy that she wanted to align with her. I believe in the SNewser spoiler of Sean’s family visit, and the only two people left who have had LOTS of face time are Sean and Kathy. Vee has had a significant amount of face time as well, but I didn’t see any evidence pointing to her ouster this week. And I just didn’t feel there was enough negative or positive focus on Kathy in the previews to suggest she would go this week. You could argue that Robert, Tammy, and Zoe, all still had some story/character development yet to take place. They were all original Rotu, which we didn’t see much of the first 4 weeks because of their immunity challenge dominance. After the switch, most of the focus remained on Marramu because of Sarah and Gina’s ouster. As of the merge, we were shown that John was continuing his leadership from the Gabe ouster, and Tammy, Robert, and Zoe were followers of his. But most of the focus was on John. I think we’re finding out now how little Zoe may have really been involved in the game, and MB just didn’t have much to show for her. Also, I think the episode title was a little misleading since it referred more to the RC than the IC, or any other interaction among the tribe. It’s almost like “Two Peas in a Pod” was MB’s ironic reference to S3 (sorry Kokoro) when Frank and Brandon, the two least likely teammates, won a RC to enjoy together. One week ago, Pappy wanted nothing to do with Sean and wanted to vote him off (most likely a result of Gina's comments about her previous tribesman). Now they spend some bonding time together, note how unlikely it is for a black man from Harlem and a white Southern Judge to be sharing a meal and a good cry together, and maybe Pappy has changed his attitude about Sean. We had evidence that Tammy won the IC, and I thought the General would be more of an immunity threat than Zoe. Until I saw him trying not to drown in the RC, but it was too late then. The others may have decided they could dump Robert or Tammy whenever they wanted, and they really didn’t like Zoe’s lying and obvious playing of both sides of the fence. The discussions and interaction we didn’t see and hear are what made this week’s boot a surprise for those of us that didn’t choose Zoe. It’s also what will make this week difficult to pick again. Blue   Top

NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 04-26-02, 03:11 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry" My mistake was in thinking there was at least some story to tell with Zoe. I mean, Burnett has never edited a jury member so poorly. Even if the only focus given to her was that she was strong and capable, well it would have been some kind of a story. But no, she had a total of 3 confessionals before her boot episode. I think Debb Eaton had more face time in one episode than Zoe has had all season! I still think editing helps somewhat in spoiling, but as we saw last night, Burnett can easily edit someone as lazy and whiny (sean) for 6-7 episodes, and then turn around and redeem him into a loving, prodigal son in one episode. It is poor story telling IMO, and last night's episode just didn't make sense at all to me from a story point of view. Who knew Robert would act like a petulant 6 year old? Who knew Pappy and Sean would be moved to tears by a native ritual? Aren't they supposed to be Christians? These are meant to be surprises, but it's just bad story telling in the end. I'll have to readjust my thinking and look less at editing for spoiling clues. Too bad though, I really liked that type of analysis.   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-01-02, 11:21 AM (EST) 14. "Brainstorm" Nightscribe, I totally agree w/your assessment of Zoe's editing: Poor, but no story to tell anyway. Got me to thinking... (my brain hurts) Could this in any way point to the fact that she becomes the deciding vote on the jury??? After all, we don't know much about her, therefore we have no idea how she will vote? Just a thought...   Top

PagongRatEater 12996 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-26-02, 05:01 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry" For me I thought Zoe was the clear choice last night and was puzzled (and worried) that I was in the vast minority last night. I felt that while Zoe had only a little screen time, Rob has had next to none. Zoe has had a peak in her face time over the last two weeks (when then booted Rob and John) and I thought that was an indicator that she could go next. I also looked at the record of those who have tried to play both sides of an alliance - it is miserable. The unbelievable change in strategy had to refer to Zoe and I didn't see anybody buying it. If you have the trust of niether alliance, and obviously Zoe couldn't, then she was an easy target for everyone to vote out. Finally, I thought the fact that she was featured in the previews in the middle of such controversy was a strong indicator. Looking at the fact that she had NO alliance I felt like all the other clues were trying to lead us away from her as the obvious choice - knowing that Tammy won immunity and that Rob was far more likeable than Zoe. Unfortunately, I did little looking at clips regarding the RC or I would have at least come up with an actual TEAM that participated. The clips and the spoiler information are great helpers in picking the bootee, but I also pay close attention to the individuals story arcs and the personalities involved. I just didn't see the same animosity toward Rob as there was toward Zoe and when you are prevented (by immunity) from making a strategic vote then you make a personal one. Call it the Popularity Contest theory - it only has limited usefulness and usually post merge, but it does come into play on occasion.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-26-02, 06:57 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry" Thanks Naked, I really like this thresd. Its good to hear from the posters who got it right and why they made their picks, it really helps those of us that screwed up in seeing exactly where we made our mistakes. And congrats to all that got it right!   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-26-02, 07:42 PM (EST) 8. "Crafty! Argh!" Thanks Naked. You're right. I was holding my breath...practically turning blue. With the way the show was going and the editting, it almost seemed possible that Tammy would do it to definitely whack Zoe. I thought they might make a tribal deal that if someone passed on Immunity,they wouldn't vote off either....Dumb, Dumb, Dumb. I also had noticed the "new jewelry" on some of the survivors including Tammy in the vidcaps, but didn't even think of "crafty strategy" in that manner! Good job MB! I always try to look for double meanings in words and that one got by. I was pretty sure Robert wasn't going because there's never been 3 same sex bootees in a row in Survivor history (not that it couldn't happen), but some people had some GREAT reasonings for Zoe going but I just wouldn't let go of a Tammy boot... Good job all who got it right! I was pretty confident on S/P being the two peas in the pod though even though it was against the grain... Next week, I'd say its definitely Robert or Tammy especially since we have no IC vidcaps thinking its going to strongly favor one of them over the other...   Top

Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-26-02, 11:44 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry" First, congrats to those that got it right - and don't sell yourselves short, it wasn't as easy pisk. Geez, even ABT got it wrong! Second, great idea Naked! Could prove very helpful! I too was convinced Robert had not had enough of a storyline to go. Thought the same of Zoe, but just didn't get that she didn't have a story arc b/c she is just so damn DULL. So I ruled them both out as likely boots. And I was sooo convinced the Tammy IN pic was a EPM ruse to prevent the entire world from picking the right bootee, hence my boot vote for Tams. I truly beleived the whole unpredictable spiel was a total crock. But the Zoe boot was pretty unpredictable, considering how many people on so many sites got it wrong. Shocking, no, unpredictable yes. (It was also totally unpredictable that Sean would swim to a win in a challenge. Did he toast the General or what? Although when Sean was reaching for his floating 'nuts, I thought he was going under for good...) Crafty Mr. Burnett got me good on this one. It is no consolation to me that I was in the ballpark about Pappy's growing affinity for Sean or the tightness of the misfit alliance. That means squat when I didn't get one single pick right. Just have to shake it off and learn from mistakes borne of over-analysis (I was sure for a while the Tammy IN pic had someone airbrushed out and wanted to puke when it was aired on the show. Humiliation does that to me) Thanks for the insights everyone. I'll be sure to revisit this thread several times between now and next week's picks.   Top

Teddy_Bear 1675 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 04-27-02, 08:20 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry" LAST EDITED ON 04-28-02 AT 07:23 AM (EST) I think that sometimes what we think is a hidden clue, is really well . . . nothing. To quote Freud: "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. In both the Gabe and John boots, a lot of speculation occured about why Gabe voted for Rob M., and why Zoe voted for John. People assumed it had major significance, because Burn-it didn't show their votes (or seemed to hide them). In the end, See-BS didn't foccus on these things, because they were red herrings--too pointless, for even See-BS. In the Gabe vote, his vote for Rob M., aroused some mild curisosity. In the John vote, ZZZoe's vote for John became the focal point of not only numerous thresds, but created a buzz of speculation on the net. In the end, it meant nothing; as ZZZoe didn't bother telling anyone of her defection. Everyone, assumed that John had been booterd 5-3; her vote was unnecessary and pointless. What really can you expect from someone going on a gameshow, with a chance to win 1 million dollars; who had never seen a single episode of Survivor? ----------------------------------------------------------------- Neleh: Ooh Papy, I'm so glad you smuggled! Eleanor Roosevelt: No one can make you feel inferior without your consent. http://www.amnesty.org/   Top

Napalm in the Morning 50 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 04-27-02, 09:31 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry" I'm not exactly sure if I'm "qualified" to post here, but I couldn't resist. Before I make my semi-cocky statement, please know that my reasoning was 90% due to the many posts I have read from most of you "veterans." I pretty much NAILED IT last week with T/R trying to allign with N/P. However, I ignored the Sean spoiler so many have referred to, and I would not have predicted the bond between Sean and Pappy after they won the RC. I guess after 30 days of "surviving" an emotional bond with anyone is just about possible. I don't see it lasting too long, however. Zoe was my alternate pick for the reasons that came true: 1.) Tammy won IC. 2.) Zoe was considered a liar/potential traitor by everyone. I'm hoping to see the usual great speculation and some more evidence for Ep10. I'm tending to believe Tammy might be an IC whore for a while, which means Rob would most likely be next. While I believe N/P have a "soft" alliance with Kathy, I could see them turning on her when necessary, but wonder if it will be before S/V. (I think it would be smart for N/P to solidify their bond with Kathy since, if Rob does go next, then they could almost assure a final three if the "play" the game right and don't make it obvious for S/V to team up with IC queen Tammy.) I guess I should have saved the above for an EP10 Speculation topic. (Sorry!)   Top

TechNoir 9741 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-28-02, 06:52 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry" Theory: I picked Zoe for a totally different reason. I have been adhering to my Karmic Balance theory since S1. Many of you do too, but it has become such a fundamental part of the background that you rarely notice or mention it in your analyses. The gender, age, race, etc. balance never gets too far out of whack. We never end up with all old guys or young women, etc. You've seen it since the beginning. Keeps things interesting for all of the viewers. Application: I just couldn't see EPM allowing things getting to a place where the survivors consisted of 5 women and 2 men. And men had gone for two weeks in a row -- John and Gabe -- so it was time for a woman to go. So I looked for the most likely woman. Given those premises, Zoe was a slam-dunk. Prediction: Ok, you folks don't believe that the "game" is manipulated to that degree, that EPM is REALLY statan. But I do (I also think it is time for a younger woman to win -- we have had and older and younger man and an older woman -- so watch for my PTTE to end up with Neleh, Vee, or Tammy taking it all.) Now what I can't figure out for sure is whether Tammy and Robert were part of a discussion with the other survivors and they all decided as a group on Zoe or whether it was some accident. And I guess I'm really not buying that it was an accident. That group is much too small for those kind of accidents to happen. I think it was edited to make us believe that T&R had reason to be pi$$ed at Zoe and therefore would vote her out. But it seems to me that a more likely scenario, all things being equal, would have been for T&R to vote out one of the ringleaders of the "new alliance" if they expected the new alliance peeps to vote either of them out. There is really no way I can get wrapped around T&R voting for Zoe without at least a congenial conversation with some of the new alliance folks. I expect that conversaion was part of getting the new alliance folks to trust T&R so they wouldn't be voted off. Now if I could only work out the implications of that. Hrm..... 60 Pixel Series, No. 2 "Sweetie, if you're not living on the edge, then you're taking up space..." Flo Kennedy   Top

Black_Cobra 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-28-02, 10:07 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Ep 9 Spoiling Sumarry" That's an very interesting point. What's even more interesting is if we happened to miss some conversation between Tammy, Robert, Neleh, and Paschal where Tammy and Robert were able to get back in their good graces? It's far fetched but what if we end up seeing either Sean or Vee gone next week?   Top

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