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"Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 00:00 AM (EST)
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"Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
LAST EDITED ON 04-25-02 AT 00:04 AM (EST)

Last week Nightscribe gave us a great boot sheet covering all of the contestants. For the few of us who are still attempting to spoil this show one episode at a time I thought it would be a great idea to continue where Scribe left off and try and update her boot sheet for how it pertains to this episode. I’m also going to give my own speculative analysis on each candidate...please hop in and add anything that I might have missed....

So, let’s go through this, one contestant at a time....


Sean

For boot


--Contributes little to camp life. Has already been cited as a reason for votes against in this game..Tammy even said as much during her vote confessional last episode.


--May be perceived as a possible Immunity threat. As long as they’re not in water he as to be considered a threat to win any challenge, and not just the physical variety as evidenced by his performance in answering questions in the Coconut Challenge.


–Marked For Death. He’s already received votes from two people still in the game, plus P/N were planning to target him before the Coconut Challenge.

Against boot

–SurvivorNews spoiler. We all know by now that the spoiler states that Sean will stick around until at least the second week of December, or at least until we see the episode with the family member Reward Challenge, which is typically done when there are five contestants remaining. But, this does NOT mean that Sean will win said Reward Challenge, only that he will be in the game when it takes place.

–Game Logic. As evidenced from tonight’s recap episode Sean is now part of the dominant alliance. Of course, game logic is the least useful spoiler tool, but it should be noted.

Shakes Take

When making your boot prediction this week you’ll be losing your money if you bet on black cause Sean ain’t going anywhere. The Snewser spoiler is the closest thing we’ve had to gospel this season and considering how reliable the source is (Snewser even got invited to the finale show) I am willing to accept this as fact. Therefore, Sean should be considered untouchable this episode.


Vee

For boot

–Can’t think of a single one.

Against boot

–in tight with the dominant alliance.

–has absolutely no story as of yet.

Shakes Take

I would say that next to Sean, Vee might be the next safest contestant. She’s shielded within the SuperMu alliance by her sub-alliance with Sean, a much more attractive candidate. The fact that we KNOW Sean isn’t going anywhere is a big clue that Vee isn’t going anywhere either. Of course, this could change if Sean were to win immunity, but it appears as if Tammy is a repeat winner this week.


Zoe

For boot

--Possible immunity threat

–Guilty of cardinal Survivor sin, alliance flip-flopping. We know that Tammy is upset with Zzzz this week, which means that most likely Robert is mad at her as well. Plus, since her vote was not read she may have a hard time working her way into the SuperMu alliance. Sean might want to get back at her for her backpedaling during Rob’s witch hunt.

–Huge face time spike in recent episodes. Where she once ranked among the low end in this department she has recently soared past Vee, Robert and Tammy.

–might be least aligned player by the end of this episode.

Against boot


--Reported weight loss of 25 lbs. See my explanation under Kathy's "against boot".

–might be able to tack her way onto the SuperMu alliance by pairing up with Kathy.


Shakes Take

I would say that she is one of the two most likely boot candidates this week. The most likely scenario is a mini-pagonging of Rotu which would lead to either a Robert or Zzzz boot (Tammy appears to have immunity). Zzzzz is most likely going to try and worm her way into the SuperMu alliance (sorry Zzzz, Vee beat you to it) and this will be seen as the strategy that another contestant (most likely Tammy) can’t believe the others are falling for. We all know that MB loves misdirection so that answer could be as simple as NO, the others are NOT falling for it one bit and Zzzz goes down. Plus, by the end of the ep the SuperMu is going to know that Zzzz is going to TC with two votes on her head so they might see it as the easy way out and tack their votes on as well.

The second most likely scenario is that S/V will team up with T/R and try to force a tie vote. In this scenario there is no doubt that Zzzzz will be the target. She will then most likely face off in a tie breaker against either Sean/Rober/Vee.

So, as you can see there are two probably scenarios this week and Zzzzz has a 50% chance of leaving in both of them....you don't need a Pakooga pie chart to figure out that adds up to Zzzz being a pretty big target this week.

Kathy

For boot


--Face time high throughout. Her story could end at anytime as she has been completely rehabbed from her rough start.

–Could be odd person out in the SuperMu alliance. If SuperMu is limited to the five we know for sure, they could decide to cannibalize one of their own this week. Doubtful, but possible.


Against boot

--Weight loss spoiler indicating Kathy loses between 25 and 30 lbs. She appears to have already lost a significant amount of weight, but there are 15 days left in the game to gain it back if she were booted. But, she does seem the type to really like the way she looks after the weight loss and may work hard to keep it off. Therefore, the weight loss spoilers are starting to lose some of their luster at this point.


--Possible reconciliation with Zoe could lead to new alliance possibilities.

–game logic suggests a mini-pagonging.


Shakes Take

Not going anywhere this week. The ONLY way she goes is if Sean and Vee team up with Robert and Tammy to vote for Kathy And as I discussed previously if S/V/R/T allign then Zzzz will most definitely be the target. Plus, she would still have to lose a tie breaker in the probable 4-4 tie vote. Not a very likely scenario.


Robert

For boot

–Game Logic + Immunity. If Zzzz is capable of worming her way out of the boot and Tammy wins immunity Robert becomes the top boot candidate.

Against boot

UTR -- consistently low face time.

–seems to be more popular than his Rotu alliance cohorts.

Shakes Take

Along with Zzzzz, the top candidate for the boot this week. If Tammy wins immunity and Zzzz ass kisses her way out of the boot, Robert becomes public enemy #1 of the SuperMu mini-pagonging. The only way he avoids boot spotlight is by teaming up with V/S and voting out Zzzzzz, at which point he still might gather 4 votes himself and have to face off in the tie breaker.


Tammy

For boot

–confirmed #1 target of the SuperMu alliance.


Against boot

–Despite my earlier doubts, it does look like Tammy wins the necklace again this week. Thanks everyone for the good discussion on that thread, especially the sandal speculation.

–Rumor that fiancé traveled to Tahiti. Now, I have no idea where this rumor came from so don’t pay any attention to it unless someone can come up with a source.

Shakes Take

If you believe the necklace pic, and it appears as if you should, she’s as safe as Sean this week. And NO, there is no way she is gonna give it away.


Paschal

For boot


--Closeness with Neleh may be threatening to some. No doubt that P/N is closest alliance in the game so someone might try to break it up.

--Wife reports Paschal played the game with dignity, connoting he did not get his hands dirty
in the game, something sometimes necessary in the end game. When this interview first came out the week of the first episode I stated that this was good evidence that Paschal at least made it to the jury. I think this spoiler has exhausted itself at this point in the game in terms of trying to figure out how long Paschal lasts in the game.


against boot

--Not seen as an immunity threat

–Game Logic. Seems to be very much in a power position right now.


Shakes Take

Not going anywhere this week. For the life of me I can’t come up with a scenario where Pappy becomes a target this week.

Neleh

For boot

--Others may want to break up her alliance with Paschal.

Against boot

--Not an immunity threat.

–Same points I brought up with Paschal. Seems to be a power player at this point.

Shakes Take

Just like Pappy, I can not for the life of me come up with a scenario where she is a target this week.

SUMMARY

Going with the theory that Tammy wins immunity, I think it comes down to one of two people...Robert or Zzzzzz.

Feel free to add anything that I might’ve forgotten.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 dabo 04-25-02 1
   correcting the correction JohnMc 04-25-02 17
   RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 Java 04-25-02 18
       RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 GuessItRains 04-25-02 19
           RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 dabo 04-25-02 22
 RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 I_AM_HE 04-25-02 2
 RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 bergdogg 04-25-02 3
   the problem with your theory shakes the clown 04-25-02 4
   RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 jayseae 04-25-02 8
 RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 idiotcowboy 04-25-02 5
 Closer look at Zoe Naked 04-25-02 6
 RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 Napalm in the Morning 04-25-02 7
 RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 SurvivinDawg 04-25-02 9
   RE: Boot speculation, Episode 9 Joanie 04-25-02 10
       RE: Boot speculation, Episode 9 Napalm in the Morning 04-25-02 13
   RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 jkokoj 04-25-02 11
       RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 managerr 04-25-02 12
           RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 Joanie 04-25-02 14
               RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 managerr 04-25-02 15
                   RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 Joanie 04-25-02 16
           RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 kdzgon 04-25-02 27
       RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 smiles 04-25-02 28
 RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9 Granvil the 4th 04-25-02 20
 Where is the General's story line? PagongRatEater 04-25-02 21
   RE: Where is the General's story li... DarkLotus 04-25-02 23
   RE: Where is the General's story li... GuessItRains 04-25-02 24
       RE: Where is the General's story li... PagongRatEater 04-25-02 25
   RE: Where is the General's story li... SurvivinDawg 04-25-02 26
       RE: Where is the General's story li... kdzgon 04-25-02 29
 REPORT ON ZOE hrc2u 04-25-02 30
   RE: REPORT ON ZOE PagongRatEater 04-25-02 31
       RE: REPORT ON ZOE bergdogg 04-25-02 32
       RE: REPORT ON ZOE hrc2u 04-25-02 33

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 00:09 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
One small correction: Zoe's vote for John was shown, it was Vee's vote which wasn't shown. If Zoe tries to use her vote for leverage with the misfit alliance, Vee can either confirm it or be smart and leave Zoe hanging.

SMILES ARE FREE

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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 11:41 AM (EST)
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17. "correcting the correction"
Zoe's vote was shown at TC, but no one really knows anyone's handwriting. John assumed the vote was 5-4 up until last week. He didn't even know it when he was on the island. Therefore, Zoe's vote is effectively hidden.

Do we have any information that Zoe has indicated to anyone that she voted for John, thereby breaking the alliance?

btw, nice analysis, Shakes. You're pretty smart, but I still don't like BB2. hehehe

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Java 519 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 11:47 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
Just wondering...

Has Vee used initials for every vote she has made at TC? I know she had done it several times. Old Rotu's may have picked up on this and realized that there was no 'initial' vote shown.

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04-25-02, 11:58 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
Java,

I am sure nobody would pick up on the fact that Vee's vote was not read. She has not always used initials. I distinctly remember her voting for "Sarah/Suzy Q" "Patricia" and "Gabe". Can't remember the Hunter vote, but I don't think she used initials there either. As a larger matter, I would think that TC is too tense a place for people to really focus on handwriting. Zoe, Vee, and those they choose to tell are the only ones who know the vote was 6-3.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 12:27 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
>Zoe, Vee, and
>those they choose to tell
>are the only ones who
>know the vote was 6-3.
>
Yes. Zoe knows that her vote was shown. Vee knows that her vote wasn't shown. If Zoe tries to buddy up with Kathy (and Kathy doesn't have a final two buddy at this point, but it is a good thing to have) then Vee can either confirm that Zoe voted for John or make Zoe look like a liar again by not confirming it. It may not even come up, but if it does then Vee is in the power position.

SMILES ARE FREE

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 00:58 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
LAST EDITED ON 04-25-02 AT 02:07 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-25-02 AT 01:01 AM (EST)

just a few options for S/V/P/N going. all highly unlikely, but i think worth mention, if we are going to include the possibility of cannibalizing Kathy. you did sort of mention them, although i'm not sure you meant via cannibalization so much as with a TR bloc added in, so in the interest of grouping them all together under one cannibalization theory:

P(N) don't like Sean anyway. if KZPN want, they could cannibalize him now. same with Vee if Sean wins immunity. likewise, if KZSV decide to break up the PN pair, they could cannibalize here

so basically, under a cannibalizing theory, ANY of the 5 (or 6 counting Zoe) could potentially go. I almost see Kathy as the least likely victim of cannibalism, as I think Sean would stick with her, but she could go as a target of a split TRSV vs KZPN vote, which is the only way i see her going, although i agree zoe would seem the more likely target of a TRSV alliance. and i know i have SV voting K one way, but refusing in another scenario, which is a little hypocritical, but i only see Sean voting against Kathy at this point if EVERYONE else votes that way, or if he jumps alliances again, not via cannibalism

i have nothing else to add other than these unlikely cannibalism theories, good job shakes!



edit because i can't spell cannibalism (and i couldn't resist saying it one more time )

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 01:41 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
I guess that I may be pigheaded, but I just don't believe that Tammy is going to win immunity for the second week in a row. I just can't believe Mb would hand it to us on a silver platter like this.

I have been trying to figure out all week how to post pictures, just to make my case as to why I don't believe that she wins the IC again. So here goes:


This is, of course, the vidcap in question. It shows everybody's favorite immunity winner with the necklace around her neck. I have always believed that this is pre-IC, whether it be heading to the IC, or her just lounging around with it on. I believe that this is a pic of them heading to the IC, as I will try to prove with these pics:


These two pics are in my opinion the main reason I believe that Tammy is getting the boot this week. She looks unhappy, and downright depressed. I also note that she is wearing the same top as the pic of her with the IN. Now, it seems pretty likely that she could have put on a pair of shorts after the challenge. It also seems like they may be wearing tennis shoes, as you can see the end of their feet at the bottom of the cap. It is very possible that they changed shoes also, planning on taking the hike to TC. The main point is the look on Tammy and the Genereal's faces and the fact that Tammy is WITHOUT the IN. The combination of these pictures combined says to me, "Hi, my name is Tammy Leitner, and I am about to be the ninth person voted out of the Marquesean Islands." If you dn't believe me, I have one last piece of evidence:


Now if that doesn't swing you, nothing will. You have to believe the Hulkster, he is the champ for goodness sakes!!!


BUD SELIG SUCKS!!!! SAVE THE TWINS!!!

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 02:03 AM (EST)
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4. "the problem with your theory"
what you aren't accounting for is that there are a few times in this coming ep that Tammy might be upset and distraught....one is the day after Tribal Council when it finally hits her that John is gone and her alliance is screwed, the second is after her big fight with Zzzzz that is coming at some point this ep.

Also, the pic's of Robert and Tammy sitting on the log look a lot more like the clothing they wear in the REWARD Challenge as opposed to the Immunity Challenge.

Further, to argue that something isn's so because "MB wouldn't just give us that" is a ridiculous notion, and just the type of paranoid overanalysis that gives MB the green light to go ahead and give us some obvious stuff knowing that a segment of the spoiling population will refuse to believe the obvious no matter how blatantly it is served up to us.


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jayseae 68 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 06:13 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
As much as I hate to agree with the clown , I think it's warranted here. Take a look at Tammy's 'do in the beach picture. Everything is up, under her buff, in some sort of Aunt Jemima configuration (no offense intended to anyone - that's just who I think it looks like). In the sitting picture, her hair is down in back.


I think a more likely scenario is that the sitting around pic is from mid-episode, which would certainly explain her despair. Unfortunately, we don't have a good capture of her face with the necklace, but I'm thinking the despair is either from John getting the boot or from not winning the RC. Then she goes off and wins IC. Note that she's not wearing shorts in the beach picture, too.

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 02:59 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
A couple of things to add for Paschal going. If for some reason the dislike that he was shown to have in E8 towards Sean resurfaces, and Sean gets wind of it I can see a Sean-Vee-Robert-Tammy group targeting Pappy instead of Zoe which would result in a tie vote and a potential Pappy eviction.

One final note if there is a tie (and I'm leaning against it) I think all bets are off up to and including an all play draw the short straw to see who goes, but since I'm not thinking that will happen anymore, I will save it for another time... maybe when there are 6 left.

-ICB

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04-25-02, 03:02 AM (EST)
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6. "Closer look at Zoe"
Shakes,

I disagreed with you last week about the John boot, and you hit the nail on the head, so I am taking your ideas pretty seriously this week. (I've been reading your posts forever, I should have learned by now.)

I watched the Recrap tonight, and the only thing that stood out to me that could be a possible spoiler for this week is that Zoe's vote was completly ignored. Every other person that voted to break the Rotu 4 last week was shown talking about booting John Except Zoe. This vote is being buried deeper than a hotel break in at a democratic convention.

This could be for two reasons that I see.

1. There really is an alliance of 5, and Zoe is on the outside and as her vote has no bearing on the game, it isn't addressed.

or

2. Zoe's betrayal is pivital to game outcome. Her vote is being hidden by MB similar to Ethan's confessionals at TC that were hidden last Season.
(not to say that I think she could win, just that her vote, like Ethan's could be the winning strategy.)

What this has to do with this weeks boot is this. If Zoetergate is being hidden for no reason, then the obvious boot choices this week are Tammy, Robert, and Zoe.

If the IC necklace pics are not doctored, than we can assume that Robert or Zoe says goodbye tommorrow. With Zoe obviously distancing herself from the next declared "Target" of Tammy, then I would give her a higher percentage of staying than Robert.

If however, Zoe does have the strategy that plays out to be be the end game strategy, then everyone is not safe this week except for Zoe.

This makes this week one of the hardest spoiling weeks that I can remember.

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04-25-02, 03:46 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
On my first post I should admit I once hated Survivor even though I never watched it before. I believed it was the typical commercialized, over-hyped, overproduced, waste of time I hear most people talking about when discussing TV programs at the "water cooler".

However, after my roommate forced me to join a Survivor Pool, and not wanting to be the dumb rookie who simply donates money, I found spoiler forums such as SB.com, and started watching the series. (I'm happy to report, I am currently in second place thanks to many of insights on SB.com.)

While I still feel the show is over-commercialized hype, I must admit it has been entertaining to read all the speculation, and I love the psychological/mind games used in the show (and in your discussions).

OK - Now that my intro is over (sorry about that), please allow me to speculate based on voting history of the remaining contestants (in the same order Shakes used above), and what was learned in the recent recap and previews:

SEAN - With the exception of Ep 1 (when he voted Sarah) and Ep 7 (when, IMO, he thought Rob had the votes against John) Sean has voted the one who gets booted. Therefore, he must feel pretty good about himself by this point (and you know what that means).

VEE - V has always voted with Sean except for Ep 7 where I believe she showed her true colors. IMO she is playing the race card with Sean behind the scenes while trying not to offend anyone else. However, the recent recaps of her admitting she voted Rob off may have been a sign to Sean and N/P (who were all whispering strategy to boot John in private) that she is a potential traitor to any alliance. (Sean said something like, "Why don't you stick with a brother?" and she more or less begged for forgiveness.)

ZOE - She played it safe the first two TC votes thinking she had nothing to lose in a J/R/T/Z alliance until the merge. She was quick to jump ship, however, once her supposed alliance was revealed. Her vote against John leads me to believe she THINKS she is now tight with Kathy and/or a new alliance with the others. However, like V, she has revealed herself as a potential traitor to any alliance. (Her Ep 9 preview spat with Tammy is discussed below.)

KATHY - Not one of the remaining contestants have voted for her at TC yet. IMO she has been fortunate due to circumstances with more threatening pre-merge Gina, and post-merge R/J. It appeared her and Z were NOT in the "whispering tent" with V/S/N/P. However, Sean already knew she had her vote against John, and I believe we were not shown her confronting Z asking her to prove she was not part of a J/R/T alliance forcing Z to vote against J.

ROBERT - His alliance with T/J/Z was revealed in the Ep 8 IC. He is now a sitting duck. However, what few have pointed out, although R/T/J/Z cockiness offended N/P/K, they must know R/T did vote for SEAN and NOT them. Still, Rob's only chance to gain safety is to take advantage of the Z/T dispute (see below).

TAMMY - Her alliance with R/J/Z was also revealed in the Ep 8 IC. However, once again, N/P/K may not feel too threatened by her since they must know she voted for SEAN. IMO the preview biatch fight between her and Zoe will force Tammy (with Robert) to find a new alliance. The most likely candidates: N/P (see below). In addition, even though it's nearly impossible to believe EMB would reveal the IC winner twice in a row, I do tend to lean towards the evidence that Tammy is the IC winner. Thus, giving N/P more incentive to let her in an alliance (with her "free" vote).

PASCHAL/NELEH - I talk about them as one since they have always voted together, and their bond/alliance is too obvious. They currently don't seem to have any real enemies. So, we look to who THEY perceive are enemies. Pappy has confessed on more than one occasion (from what I recall) that he has no intention on allowing SEAN go too far into the game, and we can assume Sweet Pea feels the same. Also N/P may find out (or already know) K convinced Z to vote off John as well as V voting previously for Robfather. Therefore, they would have less trust in both Z and V knowing they are potential traitors.

IMHO, Tammy will be forced to develop a new alliance after the biatch session with Zoe. She will take John with her to join N/P hoping they can get the original Rotu to go against S/V (the remaining original Maraamu) while driving home the fact that Z should not be trusted. Since Pappy already has negative feelings towards Sean and may not trust V or Z anymore, N/P should be willing to consider.

POWER SHIFT - From S/V/N/P/K~Z to T/R/N/P~K.
UNPREDICTABLE - T/R save themselves and supposed new alpha male Sean suddenly loses power / gets booted.
TWO PEAS IN A POD - I believe simply refers to the RC since they are breaking up coconuts (pods) for two ?? (peas) to put in the tube or whatever it is they appear to be filling.

Alternate pick - ZOE since if Tammy does win the IC again, she could convince her new alliance to boot Z "the biatch" traitor.

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04-25-02, 06:47 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
LAST EDITED ON 04-25-02 AT 06:48 AM (EST)

I only have one small point of disagreement with this analysis:

Vee
For boot
–Can’t think of a single one.

Allow me to help: Vee was shown discussing her betrayal of Rob and assuring everyone that she was back in the New Alliance fold. However, if Paschal, Neleh and/or Kathy get the first inkling that Vee is fence straddling or possibly going back to Tammy/Robert, then I wouldn't give a wooden nickel for her chances. Shakes said it himself about Zoe, and I also commend your attention to John's distrust of Gabe as analogous situations.

Also:
While I think Sean stays due to the SNewser spoiler, remember that Paschal REALLY wanted to vote out Sean. I believe we're going to see this storyline developed further. Call it my ubergut

Last, but not least, as evidenced in this here link, SurvivorNews has come on out and officially predicted that Robert will be tonight's bootee. Not that we lemmings allow that to help us make up our voting minds or anything...

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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Joanie 15 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 08:56 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Boot speculation, Episode 9"
Hi guys. This is my first post. Be gentle with me.

This is the best Survivor since S1. I can now forgive EPM for Africa (almost).

Seems to me that the "Two Peas In A Pod" episode title refers not only to the paired RC, but to the four two-person alliances that are more firmly established than the 6-member one that booted John last week. (Speaking of, sweetpea has a sarcastic side, notice she wrote "Johnny Baby" on her vote card? I love it.)

The truest alliances are now: N/P, T/R, S/V. K/Z is more doubtful; Kathy should not trust Zoe as far as she could throw her!!

I'm betting on Zoe getting the boot this week. She's p*ssed off too many people.

The two biggest challenge threats are Tammy and Kathy. Since Tammy appears to win immunity this week, she's safe. Annoying as Kathy is, I don't think her time is up...yet.

As Jeffy pointed out at TC, "the game is up for grabs"...so I will assume that the larger alliance won't hold.

Tammy and Robert have to be mighty p*ssed at Zoe (as we see in T's confessional). Robert is so far UTR that I can't see him as a big target, not yet, with irritants such as Sean, Kathy and Zoe still here.

We know Paschal does not want Sean to win. He's already shown he can switch sides (ask John about that). I think N/P will align with T/R, and agree to get rid of Zoe.

Kathy, though she may not trust Zoe fully (not if she has any brains), might feel some gratitude/loyalty to Sean for aligning with her to boot John. S/V/K/Z will try to target Robert.

In a 4-4 tie, it appears that the jury (Johnny Baby) would cast the deciding vote, and sinceZoe betrayed the R4 alliance and voted against him, he'll surely return the favor.

Zoe is history.

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04-25-02, 10:42 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Boot speculation, Episode 9"
>In a 4-4 tie, it appears that the jury (Johnny Baby)
>would cast the deciding vote, and since Zoe betrayed the R4
>alliance and voted against him, he'll surely return the favor.
>
>Zoe is history.

I like your tie breaker theory, but I belive John would target Sean and not Zoe for two reasons:
1.) He knows Sean was out to get him.
2.) John is not aware Zoe voted for him. I don't believe they share the votes after you have been booted, and I recall reading somewhere he didn't know about Zoe's vote until he was on a recent talk show.

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04-25-02, 10:00 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
I am glad SurvivinDawg brought up the following:

>Vee
>For boot
>–Can’t think of a single one.

>
>
>Allow me to help: Vee
>was shown discussing her betrayal
>of Rob and assuring everyone
>that she was back in
>the New Alliance fold.
>However, if Paschal, Neleh and/or
>Kathy get the first inkling
>that Vee is fence straddling
>or possibly going back to
>Tammy/Robert, then I wouldn't give
>a wooden nickel for her
>chances.

I was wondering if anyone else even noticed this part of the re-cap show. The discussions between Vee, Sean, Neleh and Paschal let us know exactly what was going on behind the scenes after the IC.

It seems to me these people were having a true heart to heart. I know Paschal said that it would be an embarrassment for Sean to win. However, I do not believe at that point he had taken the time to talk to or get to know Sean. It seems to me that Paschal was relying on other people's opinions. Being in the legal field myself, I think Judges tend to rely on the opinions of others and that is a first instinct for Paschal. Paschal relized that old Rotu was not what he believed and it changed his attitude. I also think Neleh has had a big part in changing his attitude. Neleh seems to have taken the time to get to know Sean and Vee and helped pull everyone together. Neleh wants to stay in the game as long as possible.

These loose alliances have come together and just may stay together until Tammy, Robert and Zoe are gone.

Also, Kathy was an afterthought during the S/V/N/P conversations. They showed a shot of Kathy but I could not tell if she was really there during the discussions.

Kathy may have swayed Zoe because she realizes that S/V and N/P are paired and will bring the other along. Kathy has a lot of stratagizing to do if she is going to win S4. At this point I do not think anyone will trust Zoe because of her alliance jumping. If Kathy knows what is good for her she will stick with N/P and try to keep winning immunity.

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managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 10:16 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
Regarding the Tammy pics: C'mon, if you had a camera following you 24 hours a day, are you telling me there wouldn't be shots of you looking depressed? Considering all the facial expressions someone makes in any given day, it's easy to show the one second Tammy could have been "depressed" looking in a 3 day period.

John didn't know about Zoe's vote, just as Kelly didn't know of Brandon's vote in S3. These people aren't allowed to talk about the game once they are in the jury, I think. Still if Zoe's betrayal was a big deal, I'm sure the vote would have been shown or addressed--and it doesn't look like it has. So, I'm thinking that the vote is irrelevant. Zoe doesn't break into the new MU alliance even though she might want to. I am starting to think Zoe is gone too. She'd be more of an immunity threat over Robert anyway, imho. And if I were Sean, I would be thinking ahead and want Kathy's closest ally gone.

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04-25-02, 10:42 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
managerr,
agreed about the Tammy pics. Could have been any time during the 3 days.

But regarding Zoe's betrayal of the R4 alliance, the vote must be addressed at some point in the upcoming episode...why else would Tammy, clearly angry, say "Zoe is a b*tch" ?

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04-25-02, 10:51 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
Not necessarily, all we know is that Zoe and Tammy had a falling out. As of TC, John didn't know Zoe voted for him and thus we can assume as of that moment Rob and Tammy didn't know either (and didn't tell John) I guess what I mean to say is that whatever Zoe does this episode it's unsuccessful, since if it were, it would have come out....
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Joanie 15 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 11:22 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
Mgrr, you're right. I still think Zoe is outta here...but I would totally love a Kathy boot. Too loud for too long.
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04-25-02, 02:05 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"

>And if I were Sean,
>I would be thinking ahead
>and want Kathy's closest ally
>gone.

If I were Sean, I'd want KATHY gone! She has proved herself to be too tenacious to keep around any longer than absolutely necessary, IMO.

I agree Vee's change will hurt her, but I'm on the fence re: Zoe. Too many hints point to a bond with N, and to a lesser extent perhaps P. I am more interested in what is "missing" (the rest of Sean's sentence; any mention of Zoe's vote for J, etc) than what we are shown: Tammy & Zoe's "fight" points more to T than Z, IMO, which is then balanced by shots of Tammy with the IN. (a "win-win" for MB, no? Either way, stay or go, Tammy makes this ep "unpredictable" to the masses..)ZOE, TAMMY-->TOO "IN YOUR FACE" THIS WEEK.

Of course the supposedly "trashed" cruise ship spoiler had NY correct, and John off by a few days - will Tammy be another coincidence? Based on prior spoilers and specs, I think it is plausible Kathy leaves in Ep 11 (as opposed to Apr 11-ethanfan), and I'd guess Sean makes it to F7 (but not too much further)(snews). SEAN, KATHY-->SAFE THIS WEEK.

Sean and Robert seem to have formed a pretty strong friendship (LA shopping mall sighting) - suggests more time together to bond - do they leave days apart, maybe even R tonight and S next? I suspect not, as I still feel alliances run deep, and right after the switch R listed his "closest" tribe members as N & P - so I do not see N/P writing down R before S, no matter how much more they may have come to "respect" Sean. ROBERT-->POSSIBLY SAFE THIS WEEK.

Add to this, I think 4 of the potential bootees - S/T/R/K - would not be considered "unpredictable" to either (some) spoilers or the GP (general public). On the other hand, either Z/V would be a surprise to the GP (less to at least some spoilers - but definitely in the minority), while N or P would totally shock the GP, IMO. If that were the case (N or P leaving) I'm positive MB would capitalize on it more than merely calling it "unpredictable". (Plus, I think Neleh's story is just on the upswing right now.) NELEH, PASCHAL-->SAFE THIS WEEK.

So, since I believe Zoe is in a "hidden" alliance, I guess Vee would fit the scenario the best this week: an "unpredictable" option; a power change refers to the aftermath of a John boot, but possibly also to Neleh's emergence as a "voice" and potential catalyst; a weakened alliance (the tent scene perhaps the biggest pupose of the "recap" show); has had sufficient "face time" and story arc to complete in this episode; Neleh's hug of Vee in the previews is reminiscent of a "Godfather" scene; and I think we may even see the "religious" vote influence as several contestants struggle intenally before voting to boot Vee.

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smiles 675 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 02:13 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
I know Paschal said that it would be an embarrassment for Sean to win. However, I do not believe at that point he had taken the time to talk to or get to know Sean. It seems to me that Paschal was relying on other people's opinions.

I agree. Pascal was going on what Gina said and not getting to know Sean. Gina was so well loved by P/N/K that her opinion (regardless of how biased) meant a lot to them. In the little heart-to-heart we are shown that N/P/S/V~K made an alliance. If Pappy plays the game as his wife says then he would not vote against Sean (since he gave his word and all) unless Sean gives him reason to (like John did). So Sean will have to mess up big time for Pappy to vote for him. By keeping Sean around keeps Pappy in the game longer. Once the threats (T/R~Z) are gone then Pappy can vote for Sean with a clear conscious.



smiles

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Granvil the 4th 38 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 12:02 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Boot specualtion, Episode 9"
First off, thanks Shakes for posting this. I like how it's brought together and I love the "Shakes Takes".

I agree completely with your alanisys of S and V. Even with further replies giving good reasons why V could be booted, I don't think she goes this week.

I think R and T have targets on their chests. I'm not sold on T winning immunity this week, so I think either one of them could go.

P and N, I agree that the only reason for them to go is to break up the (currently) strongest alliance in the game.

I think you've missed one important aspect of K and Z though - that is the thread talking about K and Z being edited to be the F2. I'm buying into that speculation right now, so that indicates they are both completely safe. Granted it's only speculation and could be blown out of the water at any time.

One other point I think needs to be brought up is that this season, it seems like the contestents are looking a LOT more at alliances that threaten them. That's the sole reason John is gone.

We have groups of 2. We know N/P are tight. We know R/T are together. The S/V alliance is a bit more shaky, and everyone is throwing K/Z together. I've seen speculation about Zoe being secretly tight with N/P. We're not shown either case, so we still don't know exactly where Z stands.

What we have to do from here on out is think about how the remaining people see things. Just because we don't see something doesn't mean Sean doesn't see it - you know that though. We know all of them want to go as far as they possibly can (Gabe is gone). In MB's interview, talking about the change to how ties are resolved (I can't remember which thread I saw that link in), he mentioned that all 16 wanted to be leaders. That's interesting.

If you were Sean at this point in the game, would you go along with picking off T/R and get nothing better than 5th or 6th? Or would you try to get with V, T, and R to try to finish 4th or 3rd, even if it is taking a chance on a tie? Oh, and realize that in the tie situation, Sean probably wouldn't be the one targeted by N/P/K/Z - it'd be T or R. If John casts the deciding vote, S isn't one of his choices and whoever they target (N/P) would go.

Finally, we're not SURE if Z and K are tight - we think they are the final 2, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are the tight two. If K is a bit more on the outside, S/V/T/R could pull her in to take out P/N. I'm not thinking this will happen, but this season, who knows?!?


Summary T and R are targets this week, and N or P could go. Given the tag line that it's going to be unpredictable, it'll be N or P.


Granvil

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04-25-02, 12:20 PM (EST)
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21. "Where is the General's story line?"
The fact of the matter is that we have really not gotten to know him at all. Unlike Amber or Mick, it doesn't seem to be because the General is not interesting - to the contrary he seems pretty funny and lively - so I think it has to be a indicator that he is not gone yet.

Zoe has had a recent spike in face time, is featured prominently and negatively in the previews and is an easy target right now for both alliances. Add to that the record of alliance jumpers in this game and I think Zoe is the easy pick this week for everybody. She has proven to be untrustworthy, she is not at all likeable and she has no real alliance.

Robert may be a bigger immunity threat, but as far as I can tell that is the only spoiler for him going this week. I think that EMB is trying to lead us away from the true Bootee. Tammy apparently gets immunity this week and the group turns it's wrath on Zoe.

The only way I see her sticking around is with a mini-alliance with Kathy, major as*-kissing and some luck. I don't see it happening and I'm picking Zoe for tonight.

The question I am left with is WHY would the General go tonight aside from the potential immunity threat?

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04-25-02, 12:31 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Where is the General's story line?"
I'm getting the feeling at this point that we're not going to see much story for the General. He seems to be a pretty nice guy, and I think he's played the game pretty honestly, at least as far as we've been shown. I think that the Voodoo Doll stuff and probably tonight's episode will be our glimpses into Robert's personality.

It's also kind of a bit of bad luck. There's always been a much more compelling story to tell than Robert, be it Maraamu's stupidity or Rob & John's feud, Robert just seems doomed to have been a supporting player from the beginning by not asserting himself more early on.

So long Robert... we hardly knew ye.

- Dark Lotus
"I'm calling Johnny Cochran!" - Sean

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04-25-02, 12:40 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Where is the General's story line?"
The General has had a few storylines. He was sick early on, injured his foot, professed more loyalty to John than any of the other Rotu, and has had a few wisecracking comments.

Players who make the jury but not the Final 4 receive air time when they do something compelling but are otherwise largely ignored because come Final Ep time we aren't going to care that much. Based on the reunion episode and the other information we have had, I do not think Nick was that boring in camp life; he just didn't have compelling story lines. Same goes for Kim P. and for that matter Kelly, who also had little face time until the episode of her boot.

I haven't decided yet whether I think the General or Tammy goes this week, but based on his editing I think it is quite safe to say that he does not make the Final 4.

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04-25-02, 01:20 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Where is the General's story line?"
Oh, I think that Robert goes in the next two-three weeks (I envision Zoe, Tammy, Robert), but I think that we will get to know him a little bit better first. I could be wrong, but I think if ZZzzz gets face time with that mug then it is a strong indicator of her getting ready to leave or become a major player. I don't see the "major player" scenario as very likely. I think that we will see more of Robert over the next couple of weeks, right before he goes.

You could be right that he will get some face time tonight and that will be the end for him (he has quite a bit of FT in the preview), but I haven't seen any solid spoilers for his boot and Zoe seems to be screaming BOOT ME!

We shall see.

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04-25-02, 01:49 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Where is the General's story line?"
We saw the General and his voodoo doll in the recrap show. We've seen more of him in the past couple of episodes.

He was hurt and sick early on, and then there's always been other stories eclipsing his (Kathy, Gabe, John, Sean, Rob, etc.), so it may just be that he doesn't have all that much of a story, like Nick.

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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kdzgon 60 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 02:15 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Where is the General's story line?"
He has also been a regular narrator on the CBS site's episode sound bites. I think he's leaving soon, but I'm not so sure it's tonight. He does not seem to be a large immunity threat, but he seems well-liked enough that not many (if any) would want to stand beside him in the F2.

If in fact a few are smart enough to play the game strategically (wonder of wonder in itself!), they will be smart enough to see it is time to eliminate a threat ASAP.

Plus, if what John said is true, all the females bonded well with each male, yet not so well with one another. Add to that, based on MB's sense of "balance", it is statistically more likely for a female to leave tonight than a male. (Sometimes, we females are our own worst enemies!)

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hrc2u 146 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 02:43 PM (EST)
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30. "REPORT ON ZOE"
LAST EDITED ON 04-25-02 AT 04:12 PM (EST)

Okay, I was all set to vote on Robert going tonight. Now I'm not sure. I had been going on the news article in the Maine papers saying Zoe was in Austrailia. I figured until she came back she was safe. Well..... She's baackkk.
Now here's the link <http://www.centralmaine.com/news/stories/020425survivor.shtml>
Why would the stat leg. choose now to honor her unless, she goes soon.

Edited to add article saying she was gone. As you can see the article appeared March 28th. It's been a month.
hrc2u
<http://www.centralmaine.com/news/stories/020328survivor.shtml>

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04-25-02, 03:01 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: REPORT ON ZOE"
As much as I think that Zoe is the Bootee tonight, I think that the Maine Legislature has little knowledge of who goes when. It is helpful to know that she is back in the states, however. Her return to the States could have something to do with a Early Show appearance she had to make.

Where is the information from that she was in Australia? When did she leave for Australia? A little more information could make this a somewhat useful spoiler.

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 03:58 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: REPORT ON ZOE"
Reports were made a few weeks back that Zoe was in Aussie for a few weeks, and that she could only be there if she was safe for at least that time frame. This was confirmed, and I find it very interesting that she is back when she is in some deep water??


BUD SELIG SUCKS!!!! SAVE THE TWINS!!!

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hrc2u 146 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-02, 04:19 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: REPORT ON ZOE"
>As much as I think that
>Zoe is the Bootee tonight,
>I think that the Maine
>Legislature has little knowledge of
>who goes when.
I agree with you in that regard, but obviviously Zoe would know when she would be going. My thinking is she would want to schedule this before she has to do the media tour. Also while she is still seen in a good light. How much before I don't know. (Unlike some, I'm not helping any survivor with their PR). I just find this quite interesting and perhaps useful.

hrc2u

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