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"Four To Four: What happens?"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-21-02, 12:56 PM (EST)
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"Four To Four: What happens?" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-21-02 AT 01:00 PM (EST)These are the threads that contain a thorough analysis of the alliances and voting blocks that we need to consider for EP9: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2645.shtml Who is Aligned with Whom? http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=2640&forum=DCForumID2&omm=0 Time to Start Over! http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2659.shtml Four Alliances of Two First, let me start by apologizing for starting the third thread, “Four Alliances of Two”, when we already had two covering much the same material. At the time I wrote my summary I wasn’t quite caught up on my reading and didn’t realize we already had so much good analysis to work with … These threads all seem to come up with the same possibilities: Tammy wins Immunity and Robert goes Someone other than Tammy wins Immunity and Tammy goes Sean and Vee vote together with Robert and Tammy and we are faced with a 4-4 tie? It’s the 4-4 Tie that I would like us to investigate in this thread… Vee and Tammy already have a good relationship, Robert and Sean have NYC in common, so for them to vote together is not a stretch. But how would it unfold? Who would T/R/S/V target? Zoe or Kathy? Would P/N/K/Z know that Sean and Vee were defecting? Who would P/N/K/Z target? Tammy or Sean? If we think Tammy wins immunity and Sean is the next most likely target, does that mean the spoiler that has Sean sticking aroung until the 2nd week in December indicates P/N/K/Z lose the tiebreaker? Does this mean that whoever T/R/S/V target is gone? Zoe or Kathy are gone this week? Is the tiebreaker what makes this the “most unpredictable episode ever”? Did MB show us the necklace again as a red herring to have us focus on Tammy and Rob when really someone from the other alliance is going to lose the tiebreaker? The tiebreaker is a much more complicated scenario than trying to decide between Tammy and Robert. We need some good speculation here… Krautboy
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Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-21-02, 03:35 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Four To Four: What happens?" |
>It’s the 4-4 Tie that I >would like us to investigate >in this thread… > >Vee and Tammy already have a >good relationship, Robert and Sean >have NYC in common, so >for them to vote together >is not a stretch. But >how would it unfold? > >Who would T/R/S/V target? Zoe >or Kathy? My guess is most likely Zoe. Tammy thinks she is a b!tch and if they know she defected (through V), she should be their prime target. > >Would P/N/K/Z know that Sean and >Vee were defecting? Obviously S & V would be better off playing up the misfit alliance, but will they be able to? If T & V do win RC, they could plot while R & S mind the goings-on at camp. Could work. > >Who would P/N/K/Z target? Tammy or >Sean? Sean if they know about his defection. But with the "knowledge" that Sean stays (making assumption here), it seems likely they would vote T (or R if T gets IN). Or they do target S and lose the tie-breaker. The latter seems more possible given the good relationship R seems to have (had?) with P/N/K. >Is the tiebreaker what makes this >the “most unpredictable episode ever”?
I do think the tie-breaker rule, whatever it is, figures heavily into the "unpredictable" thing. Perhaps we have someone giving up IN and then getting booted in the tie-breaker? That would lean toward Tammy then, if the IN shots are from returning from IC. Obviously I have no answers, just some further spec. It is most definitely difficult to try to come up with answers when the ep. is supposed to be so unpredictable. Unless I am missing something, the only real spoiler we have at this point is Sean's family visit. Is that really all we have except what MB is feeding us?
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survivorscott 2191 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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04-22-02, 06:21 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Four To Four: What happens?" |
even amount of jurors could still result in a tie
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danderoo 37 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-23-02, 08:37 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Tie Unlikely" |
I guess I haven't been reading long enough to fully understand. What is it that makes everyone think that tie breaking is done differently this time around?
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Cathy the Canadian 599 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-23-02, 12:47 PM (EST)
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21. "Kathy has a vote" |
Don't forget, Gina cast a reluctant vote for Kathy, so if it's between her and T or R, she'll be a goner. (If I remember right, niether of them has any votes).The question is, how ambitous is Sean? Will he see this opportunity, and be able to bring Vee on board? If they convince N/P/K/Z that they're voting with them for Robert or Tammy, and then turn around and do the Kathy thing, they've got it in the bag. The thing is too though, S/V/T/R probably don't know about the vote against Kathy, unless she told one of them (doubtful)
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-22-02, 07:50 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Four To Four: What happens?" |
I probably said this in the other threads that you have mentioned, but I'll repeat it here for edification.If there is to be a 4-4 split, I see it going down this way: Paschal wants to get rid of Sean. Not getting a lot of support from Kathy or Neleh, he turns to Tammy and Robert. They agree. Zoe, for whatever reason, turns back to the dark side of the Force and joins them. K/N/S/V go for Tammy/Robert (whoever doesn't have immunity) The "two peas in a pod" title would be an ironic twist on Pappy and Neleh suddenly at odds, when they've been two peas in a pod until now. This would be Paschal's "crafty scheme", with Neleh disbelieving that everyone goes for it. (And it might not be a tie vote, either, but that was the line of this thresd). Another possibility is that Vecepia returns to Tammy/Robert if someone else (Zoe?) does. Why she'd do that, I dunno, but I don't see Sean working with Tammy/Robert, and right now I don't see Neleh doing that, as she was REALLY pi$$ed that they were cutting her (coco)nuts off in the last IC. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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04-22-02, 09:41 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Four To Four: What happens?" |
Yep, Neleh is the ~only~ person in the game that Paschal trusts (now that he's moved away from the "Rotu Love Vibe"). It may have been Kathy that swung the gears for an alliance, but everytime she speaks to Paschal, it's quite obvious he's trying to think of nice ways to say: "Get away from me you crazy beeyotch!" Therefore: No chance in hell that Pappy leaves his Sweetpea (they can actually be compared to the Rob/Sarah grouping, reversing the sexes). ---------------------------------------- Now let us never speak of S3 again. Kathy: Paschal, they're going to vote us off one by one. Paschal: So? Stop Discrimination Now
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Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-23-02, 10:24 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Four To Four: What happens?" |
I don't see a tie in this Ep. Breaking up the pair T/R just makes too much sense for each of the remaining 3 pairs. T/R are both individual immunity threats, and threatened everyone with their casual arrogance in the last IC.Spoilers we have include a photo of Tammy wearing IN again, but we have no idea when photo was taken. We have Zoe severing ties with Tammy ("I never liked you from the beginning") in a commercial from an overseas market (Phillipines?) I think both could be red herrings in that Zoe has played her cards so close to her chest and has been very careful to not antagonize anyone, not J/T/R, or S/V , that it seems unlikely she would suddenly sever ties with Tammy before knowing where immunity lay. However, if Tammy was not immune and was a clear target, then Zoe would be free to 'bash' Tammy. Especially if she thought a public severing of the ties would strengthen her position with (an)other survivor(s). These are the only circumstances in which I see Zoe utterly severing her relationship with Tammy. Putting these two spoilers together leads me to believe that Tammy does not get Immunity this week, and is a target instead. How else could there be a tie? Whichever pair succeeds in breaking up the other pairs will (almost) guarantee themselves being in the final 3/4 with a clear shot at winning for one of them. By now, you would think that all have figured this out. Certainly, kathy & Zoe would have (my opinion.) Tammy & Robert have been playing the game since day one & likely see this too. Judge should figure this out, but he hasn't been 'playing' very long. He has clearly said he would not allign with Sean and Vee, but he gave his word to John too. Pragmatically, he may temporarily allign with S/V, planning to vote them off later since he does not want either to win. Also, I noticed at the last TC, when Jeffie was asking his stupid, leading questions, that Sean's response (I forget the question) was to say that "I have never lied to anyone in this game so far" and "You have to stand for something, otherwise you will fall for anything." Paschal looked at him with a re-evaluating expression on his face (again, my opinion.) So P/N could ally with S/V to take out Z or K, but I just don't see that this benefits them. No tie. And because Zoe has severed ties with Tammy, T/R and K/Z are not going to ally at TC. No tie. Would S/V ally with T/R? To break up powerful couple N/P? Vee might, but Sean has that pride thing that might really get in his way. In answer to you original question, I don't see any tie this ep, Krautboy. And I think Tammy get booted, as hinted in that Tammy follows John spoiler. This may be "the most unpredictable episode ever" (to the non-spoiling viewer) because Zoe does tell off Tammy, ending all hope of original rotu getting back together to finish off the old Maru. Swami
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-23-02, 10:43 AM (EST)
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17. "Robert is also "unpredictable"" |
>I don't see a tie in >this Ep. Breaking up >the pair T/R just makes >too much sense for each >of the remaining 3 pairs. > T/R are both individual >immunity threats, and threatened everyone >with their casual arrogance in >the last IC. > > >This may be "the most unpredictable >episode ever" (to the non-spoiling >viewer) because Zoe does tell >off Tammy, ending all hope >of original rotu getting back >together to finish off the >old Maru. Swami, I agree that their will be not be a tie and that this episode will be unpredicatble to the "non-spoiling viewer". Many of us have thought Tammy was the obvious target this week unless she wins immunity, in which case Robert would be the next best choice. Then the second guessing started and we seem to have talked ourselves into thinking that Mb is too clever for that... We spotted Tammy with the IN, which also seemed too easy, so we've been struggling to figure out what could be so "unpredictable" So I went to a few website polls to see what the average viewer and casual voter was predicting for this week and here's what I found: At SurvivorFever: Kathy 36 (2.3%) Neleh 10 (0.6%) Paschal 10 (0.6%) Robert 201 (12.7%) Sean 272 (17.2%) Tammy 735 (46.4%) Vecepia 14 (0.9%) Zoe 305 (19.3%) At SurvivorBlows: Kathy 2.5% (29) Neleh 0.2% (2) Paschal 1.4% (17) Robert 10.5% (124) Sean 16.8% (199) Tammy 43.7% (516) Vecepia 0.8% (10) Zoe 24.1% (285) Total votes: 1182 Now that John is gone, which Survivor is most likely to emerge as Soliantu's most powerful tribe member? Sean Rector 19.59% Tammy Leitner 16.29% Kathy Vavrick-O'Brien 64.11% What we find is that Tammy, Zoe and Sean are the top three boot picks for this week. Robert would be considered very "unpredictable" by the majority of the viewers. The average viewer also hasn't spotted the Immunity Necklace around Tammy's neck... And in addition, isn't it interesting that once again the CBS Poll is being used to draw attention away from this weeks "unpredictable" bootee...Robert? I guess what seems fairly obvious to the spoiler community could be considered very unpredictable to the average viewing audience. The average viewing audience thinks Tammy or Sean are going this week, based on the editing from last week. The arguement between Tammy and Zoe will be used to create drama and suspense. The average viewer will be surprised when Tammy wins immunity and Robert will end up as the very "unpredictable" boot victim this week... Krautboy
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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-23-02, 11:29 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Robert is also "unpredictable"" |
But notice ICB what Krautboy's polls suggest, most viewers think that if Tammy doesn't go (perhaps by winning IC again) that Zoe will go. If Tammy and Zoe have a big blow-up either pre- or post-IC, MB might easily edit it to look like drama-hating Vee or no love lost Kathy wants to take her out making us "surprised" when Robert gets the boot instead. Lets also remember that we are (ahem) experts at this. What is surprising to MB and the average dolt, isn't always surprising to us. I agree with Krautboy that a Robert boot would qualify as surprising, but a Tammy boot would not.
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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-23-02, 01:24 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Robert is also "unpredictable"" |
I'm having issues with the Tammy/Zoe "falling out." (Yes, I *have* taken my medication, it's not helping *grin*)We were supposed to see Kathy/Zoe having it out, including Kathy's "She just lied right to my face" comment. BUT...they're chummy again, sitting together, and voting together (okay, I also think that Z's closer to PappyPea than Kathy right now, so that swayed her vote more, but anyway). We were supposed to see them totally break ties with one another, and that hasn't happened. What if what happens is that EPM is misleading us with the Tammy/Zoe conflict? What if...(and we KNOW he does this) he chops off half of that comment Zoe made, and what she was really saying was, "I told John, 'I never liked you from the beginning, but I'll vote with you'"? I have a feeling she's simply trying to explain her defection from the Rotu-4, and that this discussion is actually MORE indicative of them mending fences (hey, Z, want some syrup with your waffle?). I agree with what others have said here, too: whenever there's been an ep that's been billed as "unpredictable" it throws us into a tizzy trying to figure out what EPM means. What he means is, to the average Joe watching the show, it's unpredictable. I mean, most of the people I know didn't think Gina was going to go in the episode she did, and were totally shocked. Let's not overthink this, folks. "You are a fluke of the Universe. You have no right to be here. And whether you can hear it or not, the Universe is laughing behind your back." - Tony Hendra, Deteriorata
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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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04-23-02, 01:35 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Robert is also "unpredictable"" |
What if...(and we KNOW he does this) he chops off half of that comment Zoe made, and what she was really saying was, "I told John, 'I never liked you from the beginning, but I'll vote with you'"? I have a feeling she's simply trying to explain her defection from the Rotu-4, and that this discussion is actually MORE indicative of them mending fences (hey, Z, want some syrup with your waffle?).Although it's possible that MB chopped off some of the comments, it doesn't explain Tammy's comment in her confessional-- "I hate Zoe. She's a b!tch". In the preview, Tammy's comment is also shown right after Zoe's "I hate you" speech. I'm definitely sure that those two will fall out in the next episode and it isn't a misdirection by MB.
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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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04-23-02, 01:25 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Four To Four: What happens?" |
Hi Swami, I just wanna give you some of my opinions regarding your post. We have Zoe severing ties with Tammy ("I never liked you from the beginning") in a commercial from an overseas market (Phillipines?) I saw this version of the preview and I'm living in Singapore. I think both could be red herrings in that Zoe has played her cards so close to her chest and has been very careful to not antagonize anyone, not J/T/R, or S/V , that it seems unlikely she would suddenly sever ties with Tammy before knowing where immunity lay. However, if Tammy was not immune and was a clear target, then Zoe would be free to 'bash' Tammy. Especially if she thought a public severing of the ties would strengthen her position with (an)other survivor(s). These are the only circumstances in which I see Zoe utterly severing her relationship with Tammy. Putting these two spoilers together leads me to believe that Tammy does not get Immunity this week, and is a target instead.
In the preview that I saw, the Tammy-Zoe fight was done in private and there didn't seem to be anyone else on the Rotu beach other than Tammy and Zoe (they could be off camera but I don't think so since the preview showed the Tammy-Zoe fight in different angles and there was no one else present). My guess is that Tammy had approached Zoe after the John boot to discuss their new strategy but Zoe said, "I never liked you since the first day I stepped into the island" (or something along this line). In my opinion, this is a reallyyy bad strategy on Zoe's part to quarrel with Tammy but perhaps the stress of the game finally got to her and she just snapped at Tammy then. There's no other excuse for Zoe's poor game strategy because: 1) the bickering between them was done in private so it was not done to prove anything to the other contestants, and 2) antagonizing Tammy at this point will lose Zoe a vote (and perhaps more if she told Robert and John what happened) if Zoe were to end up in the final 2. With Zoe's careless act, don't dispell the possibility that she might actually say that to Tammy before the IC. I wouldn't discount Tammy winning the IC or a tie vote just yet.
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Cin 843 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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04-23-02, 11:12 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Four To Four: What happens?" |
I think there is reason to speculate that this weeks boot will be Zoe. She has not only pissed T/R off but, remember Sean was pissed about the Rob vote, and we all know Rob was riding Zoe hard about her lieing.I can see Vee voting for Zoe is she starts any kind of drama with Tammy, Vee doesn't like drama and Zoe has been in the center of a lot of it since the merge. I can see P/N going along with a Zoe boot cause reguardless, if they feel they have a connection with S/V (religous or otherwise) they still have the majority of votes after this TC, and Kathy would have to chose between T/R or S/V/N/P. This is a way I can see things going, I kinda hope I'm right, cause Zoe has been bothering me the last few episodes, it would be nice to know what is going on with her. Cin
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kdzgon 60 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-23-02, 03:09 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Four To Four: What happens?" |
That, or Zoe feels so strong in her alliance, there is no question that if T doesn't leave this time, she'll be gone the next. Zoe's "cat that ate the canary" grin at the last TC is not a sign of someone unsure of her situation.Of course, it is in S&V's best interest to flip to T&R's alliance, because the best they could hope for is 5th or so with N/P/Z/K. However, make it to the Final 4, all it takes is an immunity win or two to make the final cuts. If that happens, the tie-breaker will decide the direction for the rest of the series, just as MS's fall into the fire set the journey to the finals in the Australian Outback. For the losing faction in a tie this week it would only be a matter of "what order?", not "what if?". Wouldn't it be something to see two smart votes in a Survivor series?? Now *THAT* would be "...the most unpredictable...ever"!!
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