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"Time to Start over!"
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 00:04 AM (EST)
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"Time to Start over!"
Well, well, well who would have thunk it! (yeah I know shakes!)

Time to pick up all the pieces and see if anything makes sense anymore. Despite the obvious split there are still multiple competing factions in the game. The might Rotu-4 has been deposed of course, but as shakes point out elsewhere it was never that mighty and it was never that strong. In fact it could more adequately be labled as a Rotu-3 with Tammy-John-Robert. Those three (now two) unable to hold their card close enough their vest are now looking like the first on the chopping block... but are they really?

Has Zoe really reconciled with Kathy? Her vote appears to make that case, yet earlier in the show Kathy was shown working Paschal and Neleh to get their support to take down either John or Tammy. Now I know shakes pointed out that the really negative Zoe comments were from last episode, but was the take down John and Tammy stuff from that time-frame too? I don't think it was, so if Zoe and Kathy reconciled it must have been sometime after the IC? The other thing was Sean knew the fix was in, but John, Tammy and Robert were clueless, yet Zoe was trusted enough to be brought into the loop. I contend we really have 4 groups of 2 now. Those being Neleh-Paschal, Sean-Vee, Robert-Tammy, and Kathy-Zoe, I also contend because of that break down we WILL have a TIE next week at the TC. I state this because of the strong early statement from MB and co about the tie vote change, and the fact that not only have we not seen it yet, and given this breakdown unless it happens next week we are unlikely to see a tie before final 4 and I cant see how that would be interesting enough to have hype it the way it was early.

Other early observations?

-ICB

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Time to Start over! I_AM_HE 04-19-02 1
 Not a tie.... BaquaR13 04-19-02 2
   RE: Not a tie.... idiotcowboy 04-19-02 5
       RE: Not a tie.... bergdogg 04-19-02 9
           RE: Not a tie.... SurvivinDawg 04-19-02 13
               RE: Not a tie.... idiotcowboy 04-19-02 15
                   RE: Not a tie.... SurvivinDawg 04-19-02 17
                   RE: Not a tie.... zzz 04-19-02 18
                       RE: Not a tie.... Teddy_Bear 04-23-02 40
                   RE: Not a tie.... true 04-19-02 23
                       RE: Not a tie.... jayseae 04-21-02 31
                           RE: Not a tie.... shakes the clown 04-21-02 33
                               RE: Not a tie.... true 04-21-02 35
                               RE: Not a tie.... jayseae 04-22-02 37
                                   RE: Not a tie.... Spidey 04-22-02 38
                               Not So Fast! sweetpea 04-22-02 39
 RE: Time to Start over! bergdogg 04-19-02 3
   Not so fast idiotcowboy 04-19-02 6
       RE: Not so fast BaquaR13 04-19-02 7
           RE: Not so fast idiotcowboy 04-19-02 8
               RE: Not so fast bergdogg 04-19-02 10
               RE: Not so fast Granvil the 4th 04-19-02 20
                   RE: Not so fast Spidey 04-19-02 22
                       RE: Not so fast JohnMc 04-19-02 24
 RE: Time to Start over! ShowMeTheWinner 04-19-02 4
   RE: Time to Start over! Teddy_Bear 04-19-02 11
       RE: Time to Start over! ShowMeTheWinner 04-19-02 25
           RE: Time to Start over! MattyMax 04-22-02 36
 RE: Time to Start over! samboohoo 04-19-02 12
   RE: Time to Start over! zzz 04-19-02 14
 The Alliance Wacko Jacko 04-19-02 16
   Tammy gives up immunity barrymore 04-19-02 19
       RE: Tammy gives up immunity toddE 04-20-02 27
       Clearing up a couple of things dangerkitty 04-20-02 28
       RE: Tammy gives up immunity Spidey 04-20-02 29
 RE: Time to Start over! SurvivorBlows 04-19-02 21
   RE: Time to Start over! gemstone 04-20-02 26
 Could Robert be Next? Mensaman 04-21-02 30
 RE: Time to Start over! samboohoo 04-21-02 32
   RE: Time to Start over! Mensaman 04-21-02 34

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 00:20 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Time to Start over!"
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-02 AT 00:28 AM (EST)

good observations ICB
remember, kathy was appealing to paschal to "even things up"
in other words, leave 3 rotu vs KNP. but now that zoe's on her side, she has another card up her sleeve. i really think zoe and kathy will be the final 2. and zoe's moves make perfect sense with her quotes on her calendar about knowing when to change course, etc

if a tie is to occur, which two groups will face off?
we have: VS ZK TR PN
i'm just not sure i really see a scenario where we'll get a 4 on 4

personally i think Tammy is going to be the prime target of all 6 this week, but we may see a tie at F6 or 4

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BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 00:24 AM (EST)
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2. "Not a tie...."
I agree with the fact that there are four groups of two, but despite that i think it will be TAMMY who goes next week. Kathy was constantly talking about getting rid of "Tammy and John". Well now that John is gone that only leaves one more person... TAMMY. Vee and Sean want revenge so i think they will vote for Tammy. Neleh and Paschal are the wildcards, as always. But for now i think that they are sticking with the numbers and will go with the majority. Next week: 2 votes Sean, 6 votes Tammy.
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 00:36 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Not a tie...."
Don't write Tammy off just yet the preview thread has a pic that looks like she may win immunity again.

-ICB

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 00:59 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Not a tie...."
Do you actually believe that MB would slip up TWO WEEKS IN A ROW and give us the immunity winner???

C'MON!!!!! Think about it?? MB obviously goofed up by just handing us the immunity win of Tammy. Do you actually believe he would just hand this to us?? It is obvious misdirection by MB using footage of them heading to the next IC challenge and we bite on it like mad dogs, just to see.

Also, if Tammy would have won a second immunity (using past tense since this stuff already happened), it will definately stir things up. Why would MB want us to predict the "Most unpredictable episode of Survivor Ever" by giving us the immunity winner, thus giving us a reason to think the unpredictable. Tammy is a goner, and that is just from using common logic.

Then again, logic and Survivor really have never existed. Oh wait a second, tonight Neleh used logic and got rid of the source of power.

Hulkamania is STILL runnin' WILD!!!!

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 09:11 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Not a tie...."
I have to agree that MB is not going to give us the IC winner this time. It is debatable if it was a mistake or deliberate to show Tammy as the Ep. 8 IC winner.

I tend to lean towards deliberate because of Hollow Theory: it was designed to lead us to think that the Rotu-4 were all that much more in the catbird seat, and heightened the surprise (for non spoilers) when John was waxed.

But this week, giving the spoilers the IC winner "wouldn't be prudent" for MB to do, so it's either blatant red herring or a real screw-up!

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 09:49 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Not a tie...."
The key is the picture itself. Looking closely at the picture tells me for sure it is not from last night. The clothing is completely wrong.

The only time people wear the immunity necklace (that I recall) is after winning it, going to the IC challenge, going to TC, or coming back from TC (night cam). Since there are no torches (and it's not a night shot), I think it is safe to rule out anything related to TC. Which leaves us with going to or coming back from the IC. My assesment that she wins again is based on that, and the fact that the people in the shot appear to be tired (which is an assessment and could be wrong) and that to me would mean post IC. Regardless of why the picture is there the picture IS there, and I think it is compelling enough to say Tammy wins it again at least until we have a reason to think otherwise.

-ICB

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 09:58 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Not a tie...."
Thanks for the pic. I am guessing that they are going to IC. They look tired all the time having gone this far into the game. It appears to be a swim challenge (note swimsuits on many contestants), and Paschal and Robert are looking mighty dry (not that they couldn't have dried off).

So I chalk this up to classic MB misdirection. As Hercule Poirot stated in that book The Hollow "The eyes see, sometime, what they are meant to see." Let's keep our options open, shall we?

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 10:01 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Not a tie...."
Which
>leaves us with going to
>or coming back from the
>IC.

Regardless of
>why the picture is there
>the picture IS there, and
>I think it is compelling
>enough to say Tammy wins
>it again at least until
>we have a reason to
>think otherwise.
>
>-ICB


I agree that this is most likely either going to or coming back from IC. I disagree, however, that it is more likely coming back from IC. I just have a hard time believing that MB would give us that information again this week. Much more likely, in my opinion, is that MB would post this picture going to IC (we know Tammy has the IC up until that point) and hope that people assume it is coming back from IC (thus pushing people away from assuming Tammy is the next person voted off). If it were anyone but Tammy wearing it, we would be pretty safe to assume that person won. But Tammy wearing it just leads to the most logical conclusion that it is going TO the IC, "until we have a reason to think otherwise" (as you put it).

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Teddy_Bear 1675 desperate attention whore postings
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04-23-02, 04:20 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Not a tie...."
I agree, Burn-it, devilish genius that he is woudld not do something that stupid.

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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 02:44 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Not a tie...."
I agree with you ICB. This picture is post IC episode 9 (or later) My reasons are here-

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=2638&forum=DCForumID2&omm=49

In short, I believe the vidcaps show that the stilt walking is the IC. Zoe is pictured on stilts in different clothing, which leads me to believe its from practice on stilts. If this shot were an arrival shot, the survivors would be carrying their stilts. No stilts=post IC pic.



~ true

True friends stab you in the front -Oscar Wilde

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jayseae 68 desperate attention whore postings
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04-21-02, 08:39 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Not a tie...."
Also, as mentioned elsewhere, the clothes Zoe is wearing in pic #01 appear to be indentical to those in pic #02 - assuming that she's removed the grey shirt over her dark-colored (black, perhaps) sports bra, which is visible here.

With the same hair arrangement (the way she's wearing the buff), the same necklace, the same dark-colored sports bra, I'd definitely agree (again) that this is after the stilt "practice" scene.

Some questions:

Do we have any evidence that there is indeed a practice, other than the commentary that stilt-walking is tough and they couldn't expect to do it right off the bat? If there is practice, then they'd be bringing their stilts with them - no stilts, this is post-IC. Be nice to know that.

Also, if there is no practice, then Zoe could conceivably have taken off the shirt during the challenge and this is indeed the way back from the IC. Likely to happen during a physical challenge on a hot day. I think it very likely because of these reasons that we're pointing to a post-IC walk here.

I think it's also apparent that it isn't the past win in the chopping game. We have identified Tammy's clothes as different than those last seen on her immunity win. We'd also be missing three people (John, Sean, Vee) in this picture and it wouldn't really explain Robert and Tammy's closeness in this pic - something likely to be seen now, but not before.

If we assume that we won't be blatantly lied to (a large assumption, to be sure), then Zoe's "ow" while practicing is genuine - making this the next IC and not one in the future. We know EPMB will put past pics in there - why not future ones? The "ow" might not go with this pic, and these two pics might be from a future challenge - but I think that's a bit unlikely.

The only other thing holding me back is that we see no traces of either Sean or Vee in this picture. Strange, no?

What evidence do we have that the necklace is only worn to and from IC? How about to and from the intervening RC? We saw Tammy wearing it around the camp last week, perhaps other places are okay too.

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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04-21-02, 10:13 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Not a tie...."
>
>
>
>
>Do we have any evidence that
>there is indeed a practice,
>other than the commentary that
>stilt-walking is tough and they
>couldn't expect to do it
>right off the bat?

....no we don't. But, we do have some evidence that might point to the pic of Zzzzz being from the actual competition, that being the way she is wearing her buff. First of all, would Zzzz or any of the survivors be wearing their buff like a headband at anytime other than an actual challenge? I'll have to go back and look at the last ep and see, but it seems to me that around camp the contestants ususally wear their buffs around their arm, waste, or neck...or not at all. Because it is sooo hot there they probably wouldn't wear it like a headband unless they had to, i.e. in the challenge. Further, it appears as if the buff is in the same position in both pics which would point to the first pic being from the challenge since it is doubtful that Zzzzz would wear her buff in the headband position all day long. Granted, she could be practicing right before she goes to the challenge, but based on probability, it is more likely that the pic is from the actual IC.

Also, why would Zzzzz take off her shirt BEFORE the challenge as opposed to taking it off once the challenge is completed? In the last ep, we saw Tammy and John wearing shirts DURING the challenge and then taking them off during the walk back to camp. The thinking is that after getting hot and sweaty during the challenge they would be more likely to take off their shirts for the walk home. Although, it is possible that it is so hot that they might take off their shirts for the walk to AND from the IC.

>If there is practice, then
>they'd be bringing their stilts
>with them - no stilts,
>this is post-IC. Be
>nice to know that.

...I disagree. I would think that if there was practice, they would only get ONE set of stilts for the whole tribe, ala finding a set of stilts along with the IC tree mail. Can someone refresh my memory as to the bow and arrow challenge from Africa. Plus, I also think it would be pretty awkward to make them carry stilts to the challenge beach...they are big and there is probably a good chance they could get damaged on the long walk.


>
>Also, if there is no practice,
>then Zoe could conceivably have
>taken off the shirt during
>the challenge and this is
>indeed the way back from
>the IC. Likely to
>happen during a physical challenge
>on a hot day.
>I think it very likely
>because of these reasons that
>we're pointing to a post-IC
>walk here.


....I completely agree.

>
>I think it's also apparent that
>it isn't the past win
>in the chopping game.
>We have identified Tammy's clothes
>as different than those last
>seen on her immunity win.


...yep, definitely NOT from last episode.

>The only other thing holding me
>back is that we see
>no traces of either Sean
>or Vee in this picture.
> Strange, no?

...not at all. Its a very tightly framed picture, as evidenced by Kathy being barely in the frame. It is quite possible for Sean and Vee to be walking in front of Kathy and to Paschal's left.


>
>What evidence do we have that
>the necklace is only worn
>to and from IC?


...I have NEVER seen the necklace worn anywhere else except the following places...

1. On the way to Immunity Challenge
2. On the way home after the Immunity Challenge
3. On the way to Tribal Council and during Tribal Council
4. Briefly, in camp after returning home from Immunity Challenge.


>How about to and from
>the intervening RC?

...never, there is no reason anyone would wear the necklace to the RC, that would be ridiculous.

We
>saw Tammy wearing it around
>the camp last week, perhaps
>other places are okay too.


..only because it was immediately following the IC, when they returned back and were eating dinner as soon as they got there. I'm sure she took it off soon after that.


My only question with this whole thing is why would Tammy be wearing her bikini to or from the stilt IC? It seems to me like wearing a bikini would be the last thing you would want to wear when you are going to be rubbing up against wooden objects. Even Zzzzz has a full shirt on for the challenge. Tammy wore shorts in the last IC and I would think she would wear shorts again for stilt walking. That's the one thing that has me hesitant about this photo.


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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
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04-21-02, 10:31 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Not a tie...."
I've already backpeddled on my no stilts theory over on the vidcap thresd. The structure behind Zoe looks to be some kind of platform, that is probably part of the challenge itself.

>My only question with this whole thing is why would Tammy be wearing her bikini to or from the stilt IC? It seems to me like wearing a bikini would be the last thing you would want to wear when you are going to be rubbing up against wooden objects. Even Zzzzz has a full shirt on for the challenge. Tammy wore shorts in the last IC and I would think she would wear shorts again for stilt walking. That's the one thing that has me hesitant about this photo.<

You know, this is the only thing about this photo that bugs me too. Tammy isn't even carrying any extra clothing. It doesn't look like someting I'd wear for a stilt walking competition. All the others look more dressed. Kathy and Zoe are carrying something, maybe water containers? Where is Roberts shirt? He doesn't look to be carrying anything either. Typically, doesn't he wear a shirt to challenges?

Three things indicate this picture to be post IC-

1. Zoe's clothing(shirt removed)/contestants wearing buffs.
2. The Beach is not challenge beach, where arrival shots are typically taken.
3. The looks on their faces. I would think that the mood going to a challenge would be more lively and upbeat. These faces look tired and defeated.

I'm still betting it's a post IC pic.



~ true

True friends stab you in the front -Oscar Wilde

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jayseae 68 desperate attention whore postings
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04-22-02, 09:31 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Not a tie...."
>Can someone refresh my memory
>as to the bow and
>arrow challenge from Africa.

If memory serves, there was only one bow and arrow set for each tribe. I think we'd likely only see a single pair of stilts for the entire tribe, unless it's some sort of race. Seems pretty unlikely to see a stilt race...

>...not at all. Its a
>very tightly framed picture, as
>evidenced by Kathy being barely
>in the frame. It
>is quite possible for Sean
>and Vee to be walking
>in front of Kathy and
>to Paschal's left.

Good point, though it certainly seems convenient to not have them in the pic.

>My only question with this whole
>thing is why would Tammy
>be wearing her bikini to
>or from the stilt IC?

I also don't like that. Even in the pic from the RC, she's got shorts on, and that's a water challenge. Seems strange that she's not wearing them when it involves stilt-walking/balancing of some sort.

(Turning and pointing in the right 1/3rd of the pic.)

I agree this is post-IC. My question is which IC. I think we've agreed it isn't a blast from the past.

Option #1 - It's this week.

Option #2 - It's in the future.

Is Option #2 viable? Here's a pic from the episode 7 preview thread. It shows Zoe with the buff in roughly the same position (different color as this was pre-merge), you can see the rope part of her shell necklace, and she's wearing the same black top. The location doesn't appear immediately familiar.

Episode 8 preview caps shows her in the black top with the buff rolled as it is this week, but it's around her neck. No sign of the armband, the shell necklace appears obscured by the buff.

Another from Episode 8 shows the necklace in place (meaning to me that it doesn't move much). Different top, buff in similar position but hair is down in back.

This one from Episode 9 appear to show her hair up. Perhaps a line around her arm for the armband, though can't really tell that for sure. The top appears reddish. How many tops are they allowed, anyway? Necklace is again obscured, this time by coconut-cracking motions.

Anyway, this one just doesn't feel right. Though perhaps that's the intention. Certainly an easy way to misdirect those paying the most attention - by making them think too much.

I think it's apparent that Tammy wins at least one more IC. The big question is when.

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Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings
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04-22-02, 09:57 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Not a tie...."
The red top is Zoe's buff. She is wearing it like a shirt, just like Neleh.

I have nothing else to contribute right now. I am really enjoying everyone's analysis. I just wanted to say keep up the great work, and I knew this answer, so here was my opportunity to thank this board for creating such a pleasurable Survivor experience.

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sweetpea 223 desperate attention whore postings
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04-22-02, 10:39 PM (EST)
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39. "Not So Fast!"
>>
>>
>>

>
>
>
>My only question with this whole
>thing is why would Tammy
>be wearing her bikini to
>or from the stilt IC?
> It seems to me
>like wearing a bikini would
>be the last thing you
>would want to wear when
>you are going to be
>rubbing up against wooden objects.
>Even Zzzzz has a full
>shirt on for the challenge.
> Tammy wore shorts in
>the last IC and I
>would think she would wear
>shorts again for stilt walking.
> That's the one thing
>that has me hesitant about
>this photo.

I agree. I posted on the vid cap thread that this is starting to really bother me. Plus, no one has mentioned that they are wearing sandels and I can't see them wearing sandels to walk on stilts. I would think (not having any experience with stilts) but it just seems that you would need to wear a gym shoe to better grip the ledge where you put your feet.

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 00:29 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Time to Start over!"
I am going to go out on a limb here, but the fact that previous votes don't count against anybody has really been bothering me, as far as spoiler value goes.

I think the only reason they say this is that A: It does come up, or B: It NEVER COMES UP!!! If there isn't a tie vote at all this season, then previous votes won't mean anything.

Now as far as your 4 groups of 2 go, I agree with you. The craziness of this season is only going to get wierder. The winner of this season will come from the twosome that plays the game the smartest. IMO, Neleh and Pappy have complete control of this game, and have from the start.

They have been immune from the game until tonight, and I think that they have the freshest minds, and can make the most logical decisions from the remaining group of cast aways. S/V will side with anybody at the top of the ranks, with K/Z right in the thick of things, and T/R are dead meat.

Next week should be a very simple 6-2 vote out of either Tammy or General, or get a little crazier with a Zoe boot, leaving Kathy as a wild card.

Hulkamania is STILL runnin' WILD!!!!

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 00:40 AM (EST)
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6. "Not so fast"
A 6-2 vote off of Tammy-Robert means no better than a 5th place finish for Sean-Vee. They appear to know how to count, and I'm betting they see the logic when it is presented to them. Like her or not Tammy has shown herself to know how the game is played, and I expect her not only to be able to size up the situation, but to act on it in a manner that will give us a nice tie next week.

-ICB

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BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 00:53 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Not so fast"
How would a Tammy/Robert boot means a no better than 5th place finish for Sean/Vee. I dont think that Zoe is really apart of this. If Robert and then Tammy were booted i think Zoe would be the next one to go. Then, it would be a struggle to get Kathy on their side, and you never know what Sean is capable of.
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04-19-02, 00:57 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Not so fast"
No way!

If someone trusted Zoe enough to let them in on the vote tonight they obviously have reconciled enough with them to want to vote off the lazy Sean first. Perhaps it is a bit of a streatch to include Vee, because she seems rather well liked but Sean would definately go before Zoe in any controlling Neleh-Paschal-Kathy alliance.

-ICB

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 01:37 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Not so fast"
IC, when it gets down to the final 5, that is if it is S/V/K/N/P, The odds are not good, but they are not bad either.

Let's say you are Sean. When your competition for immunity is an old man, a woman near 50, a 21 year old weakling, and Vee, the odds of winning a physical immunity challenge is pretty good. Two of the last three tend to be physical, I might add. Sean's only trouble would come from fallen comrades.

Of course, as the spoiler come in during the weekend and next week, I am sure both of our opinions will change!!!

The beauty of this Survivor is that it is STILL ANYBODY'S BALLGAME.

Hulkamania is STILL runnin' WILD!!!!

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Granvil the 4th 38 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 11:54 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Not so fast"
ICB,

I must agree with you. We CAN'T forget how much Pappy doesn't like Sean. Realize that the only reason he voted John off was because of how cocky the four got at the challenge. He wouldn't ally with S/V/K when they tried to get him before the challenge because of his dislike of Sean. He may continue voting with S/V one more time (maybe two on the outside), but there is no way he would willingly keep him around longer than absolutely necessary.

G

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04-19-02, 02:22 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Not so fast"
I am not so sure P truly dislikes S. Early in the episode, his comments on Sean were partly based on his alliegence to Rotu and all the negative thoughts about Sean permeating the camp. When he mentioned how much it would rankle him if "someone like Sean"
got into the finals, I am not so sure he really knew who Sean was.

What would force Judge Pappy to go back on his word of honor to John? Realizing that the "contract" was void because of John's fraud. John lied and was using him. At TC, when John made his "lying is part of the game" speech and Sean made his "ain't lied to noboby" speech, it was apparent from Pappy's expressions that he was disgusted with John and admired at least what Sean was saying about honesty. I'm no religious scholar, but wasn't Sean's last comment in that speech a religious quote of some kind? (I can't remeber the quote.) The religious connection might be starting to click.

Although I do agree P will want to get rid of Sean once the meanie Rotu 2 is gone. But mostly because he'll think S deserves it the least of the remaining contestants b/c of his sheer laziness.


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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 02:48 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Not so fast"
John voided his "contract" w/Sean and Rob because of Rob's blatant defection.

John had his "contract" voided with Paschal when the Rotu 4 unwittingly revealed their voting intentions through the coconut IC. (Besides, Tammy didn't so much win as she really only got the one important question right. She was pretty doggone lucky!) Anyway, I digress. Paschal became a free agent when John didn't keep him and Neleh on a little longer in the IC. John deserved what he got.

To quote Sean, "Checkmate."

What will Paschal do? I think that he will vote off Robert and Tammy next. One of the two has to win immunity to last another 3 days (or week, in our terms). The other is jury member #2. After that, I think he may go back to voting off Sean. Sean and Vee are still Old Mu's, and now that they have voted off power, they can pagong.

Have to say that I like how this has not been the Pagong show this season. Alliances have been broken down much more than in the past. Rich would not have lasted with this group at all.

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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 00:30 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Time to Start over!"
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-02 AT 00:35 AM (EST)

It'd be great if we actually got to see a 4-way tie between the four factions (I still can't believe that we can actually see FOUR factions in Survivor history!). I don't think that would happen though coz I think the agreement on episode 8 was to take out John's alliance.

I'm still a little puzzled as to why MB actually showed Kathy's "Zoe lied to me point blank" footage. Did Zoe vote for John because Kathy told her about the coup or did she vote because of her conscience? I thought that it was the former based on the Zoe calendar 'spoiler', "Find a strategy to achieve and be flexible to change; Learn from experience and be adaptable when changing course".
Kathy has every reason to tell Zoe. She knew that she'd be the odd person out if the alliances came down to K/P/N/S/V. All of them have partners except for Kathy and the best position without her having an immunity run is final 3. Having Zoe as her close ally will give her the extra edge when it comes to voting and she might actually have a shot at winning the million bucks if the juries (especially J/T/R) feel that they have been betrayed by Zoe.

Well I suppose if they were to go with the original agreement, then Robert or Tammy would be next but the "most unpredictable episode ever" bugs me. And I don't think we have heard anything from Robert yet after so many episodes. There's got to be more to this man than "real men don't wear pink".

I'll be back after I see more posts.

Edited coz I cam't speil

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04-19-02, 08:41 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Time to Start over!"
>Did Zoe
>vote for John because Kathy
>told her about the coup
>or did she vote because
>of her conscience? I thought
>that it was the former
>based on the Zoe calendar
>'spoiler', "Find a strategy to
>achieve and be flexible to
>change; Learn from experience and
>be adaptable when changing course".

I don't understand the "Zoe calender spoiler."
Could you elaborate, any further, on this?

>Well I suppose if they were
>to go with the original
>agreement, then Robert or Tammy
>would be next but the
>"most unpredictable episode ever" bugs
>me.

Would would strike me, as extremely "unpredictable,"
is if Sean, wins immunity, and (finally) get his wish
--to be an "Alpha-Male."

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04-19-02, 04:49 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Time to Start over!"
As noted on an older thread, Zoe has a calendar published and the calendar basically has Zoe's quotes, some of which are "Find a strategy to achieve and be flexible to change; Learn from experience and be adaptable when changing course". Some spoilers, including me, believe that since she carries this philosophy, it might not take too much for her to abandon a sinking ship and that is basically what happened in episode 8.

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MattyMax 515 desperate attention whore postings
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04-22-02, 07:57 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Time to Start over!"
"Find a strategy to achieve and be flexible to change; Learn from experience and be adaptable when changing course".

What a Pisces!!!! Mutable Water!!!

MattyMax

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04-19-02, 09:09 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Time to Start over!"
I agree with you Cowboy about Sean and Vee knowing how to count. Sean and Vee could still be wild cards and here's why:

Zoe's vote: Zoe voted for John last night. I didn't realize it until this morning. Jeff didn't show the final vote and didn't need to since it was 5 vs. 3. So Robert and Tammy don't know that it was really 6 vs. 3 and not 5 vs. 4. For that matter, Sean and Vee may not know either. If Zoe's vote is exposed next week, that exposes another alliance of 4: N/P/Z/K. If Sean and Vee stay here, they are once again at risk of a 5th or 6th place finish. However, if Sean and Vee flip back to Tammy and Robert, that makes it 4 vs. 4 and wee'll have to see how the tiebreaker shakes out.

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04-19-02, 09:33 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Time to Start over!"
>I agree with you Cowboy about
>Sean and Vee knowing how
>to count. Sean and
>Vee could still be wild
>cards and here's why:
>
>Zoe's vote: Zoe voted for
>John last night. I
>didn't realize it until this
>morning. Jeff didn't show
>the final vote and didn't
>need to since it was
>5 vs. 3. So
>Robert and Tammy don't know
>that it was really 6
>vs. 3 and not 5
>vs. 4. For that
>matter, Sean and Vee may
>not know either. If
>Zoe's vote is exposed next
>week, that exposes another alliance
>of 4: N/P/Z/K.
>If Sean and Vee stay
>here, they are once again
>at risk of a 5th
>or 6th place finish.
>However, if Sean and Vee
>flip back to Tammy and
>Robert, that makes it 4
>vs. 4 and wee'll have
>to see how the tiebreaker
>shakes out.

If V was paying attention, she knows the vote was 6-3 because it was her vote--the one that said "J.C." (she really is religious isn't she)--was not read. Thus, she knows 5 other people voted for John, and with her vote, 6 people voted for John.

I have to admit--I am not really sure how the alliances will shake out. The pairings are obvious of T/R, S/V, N/P. But where K and Z fit in is still unclear to me and how each of the pairing will align is also still a mystery to me. I agree, however, that if S/V stick with their current "allies" they are doomed to no better than 4th or 5th. They need a balanced alliance with only 2 other people for a real shot at victory (although I think Sean would probably lose the final vote against anyone so he really can do no better than 2d). The only real candidates for this are T/R because they are legitimately desparate at this point. Of course, even if they form S/V/T/R, they still need to win the tie break (both at final 8 time and at final 4 time). Depending on winning tie breaks, however, is still better than guaranteed loss.

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Wacko Jacko 2438 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 09:49 AM (EST)
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16. "The Alliance"
I thought almost from the beginning the alliance was going down.

Never in the shows history has Burnett come right out and said that there was an alliance. It was like he was shoving the alliance down our throats. In the past he hid the Colby & Tina alliance and every week tried to make it look like Lex was going but with this one he wanted us to think that the alliance was going all the way and that made me suspicous.

I went 50 on John and 50 on Sean. I didn't see anyway Sean would last but I was lucky and put 50 on John. I thought Sean was too obvisious.

Great episode. Again looks like Sean but also could be Tammy. I think Burnett wants us all to pick Sean every week but how could we not. No one likes him but Vee.

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barrymore 42 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-02, 11:27 AM (EST)
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19. "Tammy gives up immunity"
Just a thought. What if MB is showing us that Tammy wins immunity because she does BUT she gives it up at TC to...SEAN!!!
Remember the Tammy and V have been very close and neither of them have votes against them. The General is also vote free. They will figure out very quickly were Zoe sides as V knows that her vote (J.P.) wasn't shown. So Sean (who knows how to play the game!) realizes that he is meat if he sticks with N/P/Z/K so he has V go to Tammy and align 4 on 4. Tammy wins immunity and gives it up to Sean expecting that previous votes will make a difference at TC. I am sure Tammy and the General will want Zoe off after the betrayal and they know that she does have one vote. But JP throws a twist in and says that it does not. So after a 4-4 Tammy-Zoe tie there is a tie breaker and TAMMY goes home after winning immunity in the "most unpredictable survivor ever!". There is no truth to any of this...just a hunch.

Any thoughts???

By the way, I am usually wrong. I just think that Tammy and Sean know the game too well to be a sitting duck!

Remember if Sean was so excited about 1 in 9 odds at a million bucks what would he think about 1 in 4?

Barrymore

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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings
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04-20-02, 12:32 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Tammy gives up immunity"
That's an interesting theory, and it goes with the "most unpredictable ever" theory. My only doubt is that Tammy seems clearly marked to go next, and she must know it. So for her to give up immunity would be suicidal. And, since everyone thinks Tammy is next, would her boot be the "most unpredictable?" Still, maybe she will...
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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04-20-02, 12:56 PM (EST)
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28. "Clearing up a couple of things"
LAST EDITED ON 04-20-02 AT 01:14 PM (EST)

It is already established that all the players know that tie votes don't count - Sarah, I believe, said that MB told them all before the game. So Tammy ain't giving up immunity to Sean, thinking she is safe.

I do agree, though, that S/V could join up with T/R. We have been shown enough footage of Tammy and Vee being close - last ep a very in-your-face clip of them hugging warmly was the topper. Vee knows that there was one more vote for John. So S/V would be in a 5 person alliance if they stay put, and on the bottom rung. If they move over, they are in a 4 person alliance and have equal chance to finish on top. They have a good chance to win the tiebreak, and if they lose, they are no worse off than they were before.

And let's not forget to give Kathy a lot of credit for swinging the new alliance. She was planting those seeds in P/Ns heads, and they weren't ready to hear it then but she kept at it. She said, if only they could have a chance to see what's really going on. Foreshadowed the IC, where they did. And Sean was there to jump in and point it out clearly to them, in case they still didn't get it. I give it to the tag-team of Kathy/Sean, and Neleh then making sure that Paschal got it.

EDIT to add: Also, if you view the CBS site video of "Zoe and Kathy apologize", it's and extended scene of their talk on the beach. My feeling is that this set up the Zoe switch and vote - she really does value her friendship with Kathy, and realized that it was more important to her to be true to that then to the others.

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04-20-02, 05:29 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Tammy gives up immunity"
I agree that T/R/S/V could team up and take a stab at a 4-4 tie. None of them will be worse off if they lose. All 4 seem to know the game and will likely go for broke.

But I can't see her giving up immunity, especially now. She would be assured at least 3 more days no matter what if she keeps it. Giving it up makes her a potential loser in the 4-4 tie and she would be worse off.

The only way I see Tammy giving up IN is if Sean tells her that is the ONLY way he'll side with her, otherwise Robert gets the axe. (*Sean could bluff this too, b/c he might fear he is a more likely boot than Robert, whom everyone likes) She has a choice to make. Keep IN and have to go on an IC run to stay in the game, or give up the IN to Sean and risk getting the boot for a good shot at the final 4. Tough choice. I'd probably go for it.

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04-19-02, 12:21 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Time to Start over!"
I don't agree with the assumption that Zoe voting for John means that she was "brought into the loop" before the voting. Clearly Sean was confident that John was going, but he could have been just as confident if he only knew of Kathy, Neleh, Vee, and Paschal. Zoe could have sincerely changed her mind -- or perhaps she just SUSPECTED ENOUGH that something was going on that she tried to immediately begin trying to save herself.

(and for the record here, let's be clear -- Sean didn't accomplish a DAMN THING -- it was the sweet little Mormon girl that took down the Big Bad Wolf, not Alpha-Male Wanna-be. First she bests Rob in the food challenge, now John, Neleh is showing the spunk that Jiffy suckered us into believing Elizabeth was going to show last year.)

As far as upcoming tie -- I agree that one seems likely in Episode 10. From the beginning I took Burnett's comment about "previous votes not counting" to defintely mean that we see a tie vote at some point. Prior to last night, I thought it would come in Episode 10, with John being booted after Vee, Sean, Paschal, and Neleh finally realized what was going on after Kathy's booting in Episode 9 (as I said before, I never believed John's plan would work, but I was surprised to see it blow up so quickly -- never underestimate cockiness.)

-SB

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04-20-02, 11:44 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: Time to Start over!"
"and for the record here, let's be clear -- Sean didn't accomplish a DAMN THING -- it was the sweet little Mormon girl that took down the Big Bad Wolf, not Alpha-Male Wanna-be."

Who put doubts in her head in order for her to notice what was happening in the IC? Neleh gets credit for convincing Pascal to boot John but that is only 2 votes. Sean (and Rob)gets credit for the other 3. You can't make her into a genious because of one move that was in front of her face the whole time but she was too blind to see it until it was too obvious to miss.

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04-21-02, 06:24 PM (EST)
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30. "Could Robert be Next?"
There are many signs that point to the General getting the boot. T/R being in a minority now, and the evidence that Tammy might in fact win another IC. This would leave the General as the likely boot. I feel like we have seen nothing of him in a story arc. I suppose that he could be featured in Ep9 and get the boot. I have to think that he lasts for at least a couple more episodes so that he gets a little face time. I don't know...

MM

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04-21-02, 09:07 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Time to Start over!"
We also have to remember that we don't know what happens in the event of a tie. What if the person winning Immunity breaks the tie -- that could be pretty interesting.
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04-21-02, 10:21 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Time to Start over!"
I don't buy that idea. I think that the tie breaker would be consistent throughout the whole show. Which means that no single person has immunity in the beginning to break ties, so it wouldn't make sense to change it when individual immunity is up for grabs. Just a thought.

MM

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