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"Boot Speculation Episode 8"
NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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04-15-02, 03:56 PM (EST)
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"Boot Speculation Episode 8" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-15-02 AT 04:01 PM (EST) I thought it might be productive to compile a boot sheet, weighing evidence/spoilers/speculation against each remaining contestant to see if we can narrow down the possibilities for this weeks' bootee.
Please add information that you have or correct mine if it is incorrect. Keep in mind this applies only to the upcoming episode and doesn't seek to project later bootees. Sean For boot Has no known alliance now that Rob is gone. (Vee voted against Rob; no evidence she will remain loyal to Sean.) Complains incessantly and openly. Contributes little to camp life. May be percieved as a possible Immunity threat. Featured in CBS Eyemail Against boot Rumor from Snewser at SNN that Sean is safe until second week of December (need confirmation of what episode that would correlate with). Vee For boot None that I can think of now that she's voting with R/Z/J/T. Against boot Very little face time Not yet featured in Eyemail Voting with J/T/Z/R (seen bonding with Tammy) Kathy For boot Possible alliance with Neleh and Paschal May have been booted last episode had she not won immunity. Grating personality? Face time high throughout, and a spike in episode 7. Considered a threat to camp harmony with her questions about allegiances. Against boot No CBS Eyemail profile Weight loss spoiler indicating Kathy loses between 25 and 30 lbs. With 18 days left in the game, as a jury member Kathy would have had significant time to gain back at least some of the weight lost. Possible reconciliation with Zoe could lead to new alliance possibilities. Zoe For boot Possible immunity threat Alliance members may be uncomfortable with her reconciliation with Kathy (IF they reconcile). Profiled this week in CBS Eyemail Against boot Extremely low face time Alliance with J/R/T Reported weight loss of 25 lbs. See my explanation under Kathy's "against boot". Not edited as a target until this week. John For boot Seen as a leader, thus a target. Tried to play both sides of an alliance. Possible immunity threat Lots of face time. Edited as a target in at least two episodes. Rumored to have told a friend he appears in every episode. Against boot No CBS Eyemail profile. Leader of the Majority alliance. No known weight loss spoilers. Rumor of him being in every episode could be interpreted as him appearing as a jury member. May be an attractive option to sit next to in final 2. Robert For boot Featured in CBS Eyemail. No known weight loss spoilers Could be percieved as an immunity threat Against boot UTR -- consistently low face time In the majority alliance. Has been edited as getting along with everyone (not including Rob) Tammy For boot CBS Eyemail profilee May be seen as an immunity threat. Although seen in ep. 8 vidcaps wearing the IN, she could transfer it to someone more vulnerable. Against boot Seen wearing IN in ep 8 vidcaps (highly unlikely that she would transfer it. If you watch her video on the cbs website, you will see that her strategy is to win immunity and avoid the vote. In majority alliance J/Z/R and probably Vee UTR: her story arch is just beginning and we're just now getting to know her. Paschal For boot So far not included in the Rotu alliance. Closeness with Neleh may be threatening to some. Consistent face time (not high or low) Wife reports Paschal played the game with dignity, connoting he did not get his hands dirty in the game, something sometimes necessary in the end game. Featured prominently in ep. 8 previews, but not in a target light, as per OFG theory. Against boot Not yet profiled on CBS Eyemail Not seen as an immunity threat Episode 9 is titled "Two Peas in a Pod" which many feel refers to Pappy and Neleh. Pure speculation, but probable. has bonded with other members (Zoe, Robert, Kathy) Neleh For boot Others may want to break up her alliance with Paschal. Not included in the Rotu 4 agreement (as far as we know) Previews for this week indicate she's feeling vulnerable. Profiled in CBS Eyemail. Fairly consistent face time, and it could spike in her boot episode as did Gabe's. Against boot Weight loss of 20+ pounds reported. Not an immunity threat. Many people seem to like her. Still a possibility of some sort of religious alliance. _________________________________________ Please feel free to poke holes, discuss, whatever. If I find more, I'll edit this post.
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citygirl 35 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-15-02, 04:26 PM (EST)
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1. "Weight Loss Spoilers" |
Just a comment on the weight loss spoiler - especially for Kathy. She has already lost a significant amount of weight - probably 25 pounds or so. That means she doesn't need ot stay on the island any longer to lose more weight. She might be happy enough about the new look to make a concerted effort at the loser lodge not to put it back on.
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NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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04-15-02, 05:03 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Weight Loss Spoilers" |
I don't like the weight loss spoilersAs compelling as this evidence is, I don't think it thoroughly thinks through the helpfulness of weight loss spoilers. We were able to predict quite a few things with the help of weight loss spoilers, including that Big Tom (S3)would go far in the game due to his tremendous weight loss upon returning state side. None of the pre-jury bootees had any weightloss spoilers. Why? because they were able to regain most of it at loser lodge. The point isn't entirely that they lost X amount of weight while participating in the game, but also how long before returning home might they have had to gain it back. True, Kathy has already lost a significant amount of weight by day 21 (which was episode 7) however, were she to be booted on day 24, that still leaves two weeks for her to gain some of it back. Anyone who has ever been on a starvation diet will tell you that it doesn't take long to put back on the weight. So, it fits as a possible spoiler because if she were to be booted on day 24, the liklihood that she would keep all 25 lbs. off when she has access to as much food as she wants and a roaring apetite to compliment it shows me that she didn't have as much time to gain back all of the weight she lost.
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Wacko Jacko 2438 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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04-17-02, 04:22 PM (EST)
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36. "Weight Loss Spoilers " |
In other words - Weight Loss Spoilers are useless now when determining whether one castaway is more likely to go than another. They were more useful in forecasting earlier boots.
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steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-16-02, 05:23 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Weight Loss Spoilers" |
Weight loss spoilers are bunk.....Rob said on Rosie that he had lost 20+ pounds, Kathy could have lost 25+ pounds and it doesn't mean she made it too far into the end game.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-15-02, 05:51 PM (EST)
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5. "Rotu 4's next move" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-15-02 AT 06:00 PM (EST)Very well organized, Scribe! The only bone I would pick would be the inclusion of the Eyemail “Theory”, (which is a bunch of hocum as of now, IMO) but that’s my own axe to grind. For the record, E11 would have been taped during the second week of December (12/12-14) and that would correspond with the “tape from home” trivia challenge in S3 and the visit that Dr. Sean got in S1. If Sean makes it this far he would be in the final 6. For that to happen, one of two things have to occur. Either the non-Rotu 4 rally and start to pick them off, or the Rotu 4 target N/P/K first. I think the former is unlikely, but the latter is a possibility, especially if they think they have Vee in their pocket. There is only 1 more week where the non-Rotu 4 have the numerical edge. So if there’s going to be a coup, they better do it this week. Realistically, the 5 people we’re talking about don’t have the strategic skill necessary and/or the inclination to pull it off. For N/P, they would need to trust V/S, which is unlikely. Vee apparently has jumped ship to the majority group. It would be unlike her to jump back and re-ally herself with Sean at this late date. And Kathy seems to be holding out hope that she can get back in with Zoe (at the least) and the Rotu 4 (at best). She has never been tight with N/P as far as I can tell. From the perspective of the Rotu 4, Vee is on their side, Sean and Kathy are free agents, and Neleh and Pappy are joined at the hip. Tammy (who I believe is really calling the shots) is shrewd enough to understand that the next move should be to go after N/P. This isn’t to say that I believe the family visit rumor, just that there's a good possibility that Sean hangs around that long. Fester
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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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04-15-02, 06:03 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Rotu 4's next move" |
It seems odd that CBS would actually show who won immunity in a vidcap. I can only think that she(Tammy) must give it away, maybe to John? I wonder if that could backfire against her and get her booted in John's place?
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katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-15-02, 06:22 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Rotu 4's next move" |
Fester, your reasoning is only supporting my feeling that Neleh goes this week. I stated all my ramblings on this subject in GT's "SeeBS Eyemail" thread.
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galastarr 16 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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04-17-02, 02:46 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Rotu 4's next move" |
>Tammy (who I believe is really calling the shots) is shrewd enough to understand that the next move should be to go after N/P.<This wouldn't be the smart move for J/R/Z/T. The remaining N/P member as well as Kathy would know that the Rotu4 alliance actually does exist, something they have been working hard to keep a secret. By voting off Sean or V the illusion would remain intact even though the Rotu4 would still only have a 50% share. They would then have a better chance to grab a vote from K,N, or P the next week in order to gain an actual majority for the remainder of the game. The best move for them would be to lower the oppositions numbers until they can take out N/P without any struggle. Next out is Sean, then V, then N, then P. Sean is out. He has too much hype saying that he won't go. He is the best choice to remove because of his IC threat. Vee would then have to go being she would be the last Mara member. Kathy goes here as N/P are best kept naive about what is really happening. N would be next because she is more of an IC threat then P is. P then would have to go. 4 person battle royal to finish it off. J then Z then a toss up for the winner.
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simone 52 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-15-02, 09:56 PM (EST)
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10. "Sean and the Family Visit" |
Nightscribe, you didn't mention it in your post, but it has been brought up as evidence pointing to Sean staying until the final 6 or so, so I figured that this thread would be the place to put it. (Plus, FesterFan mentioned it, I think.) If it is the wrong place, i'm very sorry - can I chalk it up to being an infrequent poster?What I want to know is where it came from and what the exact wording was. I thought it had its origins in Tahitipresse, which would mean that the name was not specified. What I am suggesting is that, if the spoiler was not that Sean specifically wins the family trip, maybe Tahitipresse got mixed up. Maybe there was a black man who went on the reward challenge in question, but, instead of being the reward winner, he was the family member. So maybe instead of Sean making F6, it's Vee? Of course, if the spoiler specified Sean, this is all nothing. It's just my attempt to reconcile the Eyemail theory (which seems reasonable), the Sean spoiler (which, barring an immunity run, seems improbable), and my gut saying that Kathy or Sean is the next to go, as they both seem loud, offensive, and unattached. Plus, I agree with you that "Two Peas in a Pod" really sounds like Paschal and Neleh and suggests that they stick around until then.
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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04-15-02, 10:32 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Sean and the Family Visit" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-15-02 AT 10:44 PM (EST)TP came up with the "male asking for a shower and to dine with his parents" "spoiler". SNews.net came up with the "Sean goes until the final 6 or so" "spoiler". Can someone post the link to the SNews article? They change so often I can't find it....Also because of this and the fact that SNews hasn't said anything about where the information came from it's all very iffy. (after all, remember "Kathy goes in episode 7" from a "reliable poster" on SS?) EDIT:Awful Grammar ;) ---------------------------------------- Now let us never speak of S3 again. Don't worry y'all, Gina and Bob will be back just in time for the final 3. Stop Discrimination Now
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-15-02, 10:44 PM (EST)
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12. "more on the Sean spoiler" |
besides SNews, we also have our very own Loree who has a source of some sort at the infamous Belly bar. Maybe Loree can post the exact info, but I do believe that her source stated prior to the Gaybe boot that Gaybe would get booted before the merge for saying or doing something stupid and that Sean was good to last to somewhere in the final 4-7.Also, as to the sources veracity....Loree's source was correct about spoilers regarding BB2 so the source has a proven track record...plus they were correct about the Gaybe spoiler (BTW, the gaybe says something stupid came out BEFORE the CBS promo hyped up the "innocent comment that causes a flury of activity")
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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04-15-02, 11:08 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: more on the Sean spoiler" |
Ahhh I forgot about Loree!But I'm not clear on something: Loree do you know someone at Belly or not? Here (and in a couple others on the thresd) it doesn't really sound like it. Here it does Oh and this isn't supposed to sound b*tchy; I just want to know -if you do have a source - anything new leaked? (Plus it doesn't matter as much, because the person ~did~ know about Gabe....) ---------------------------------------- Now let us never speak of S3 again. Don't worry y'all, Gina and Bob will be back just in time for the final 3. Stop Discrimination Now
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Lisapooh 12664 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-16-02, 01:04 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: more on the Sean spoiler" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-16-02 AT 01:06 PM (EST) >Also, as to the sources veracity....Loree's >source was correct about spoilers >regarding BB2 so the source >has a proven track record..
I'm not trying to quibble with this, because Loree was right on the Gabe spoiler - but what kind of spoilers or advance knowledge could anyone provide about BB2? There were live video feeds of what was going on in the house. Did they leak that Mike was going to be a contestant? What else was there? Or am I just missing something really obvious? I've been taking this Sean family visit thing as fact for awhile, maybe we need to look at it again?
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heresy 94 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-16-02, 10:44 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: more on the Sean spoiler" |
Loree's original post said that Gabe would make the merge. Since Gabe didn't make it, I'm a little leery about the rest of this spoiler.
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-16-02, 00:16 AM (EST)
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16. "Article link" |
Is this the article you're looking for? Is this all there is on this spoiler?http://www.survivornews.net/article?id=18 Also, is there some reason that the TP reward spoiler points specifically to Sean? I doubt Pappy asks to see his parents, but what about John or Robert? ~ true
True friends stab you in the front -Oscar Wilde
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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04-16-02, 12:42 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Article link" |
Honestly, I do think that's all we have....I mean, we're believing something with no source (who has been known to recieve false spoilers - I believe - from Survivor Reports on SS)Secondly, I have no idea how the Sean thing came out - Possibly it was just speculation? If I'm wrong, somebody please correct me quickly. This is the time of the season where we need to evaluate our "Lis kicks butt ~in the challenges~ type spoilers".... However, we should also keep in mind that Loree's spoiler source has said that Sean makes it far - he was right about Gabe getting voted out because of something stupid (although I'm not absolutely convinced this couldn't be speculation from a friend of both of them ie: "Knowing Gabe, he probably got voted out for doing something stupid....") ---------------------------------------- Now let us never speak of S3 again. Don't worry y'all, Gina and Bob will be back just in time for the final 3. Stop Discrimination Now
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-15-02, 11:49 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Boot Speculation Episode 8" |
good job scribey! very helpful and well organizedjust a couple of additions: Against Sean: rumor that he wins family visit RC (as stated above) possibility of JZTR going after KPN first For Vee: possible Sean IC win plus possible KPN vote with JZTR (unlikely, but a possibility) also, you have a couple of the For John points in the Against John section and vice versa (weight loss and appearance in every episode info)
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jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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04-16-02, 01:50 PM (EST)
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20. "NETWORK UPDATE for Episode 8" |
From Survivorfever.net the following is from the CBS Network update...<<With Kathy unable to forget Boston Rob's warnings that her former Rotu tribe members were looking to vote her off, she must decide whether or not John, Robert, Tammy and Zoe are out to betray her. And, the castaways compete in a kite flying competition in hopes of winning a Snickers bar and diving trip. And an eighth member is voted out of the tribe.>> Sounds like Kathy will continue her questioning of everyone. Also, this tells us exactly what the RC is for this week.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-16-02, 05:10 PM (EST)
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23. "not true Cowboyroo (that rhymes)" |
>Kathy is not stupid... ...are we watching the same show??? The one I'm watching is called Survivor, and if there is one thing that has been learned from watching over 40 episodes of the series is that they are ALL stupid...some of them end up lucky and win, but history dictates that 98% of the moves made in this game are the wrong moves. > >I think they are going to >gang up and we are >going to see John go >this week. I think the >reason Rob was voted off >was to bring the margin >down to 5-4 instead of >6-4.
....that has to be about the most far reaching speculation I've seen so far this episode. First, you are assuming that there already exists an alliance between K/P/N/S/V. Secondly, you are assuming that not only do they already have an alliance, but they are already confident enough in their alliance to start canibalizing their own (rob) even before the alliance has cooperated on a single boot. Also, if there was an alliance and Kathy was a smart as you say, why on Earth would she vote for ZOe and possible tip Rotu off that there is a competing alliance. Wouldn;t a smart person (as you say Kathy is) tow the company line and vote for Rob so as not to attract attention and paranoia from Rotu???
>Even though they've given us IC >winners in the past it >has NEVER been so obvious >like this one with Tammy. ...sure we have, on more than a few occasions! Lex a couple times, and don't forget the pic of MamaKim wearing the necklace on the trek to TC in the final four previews. Also, we had Michale from Kucha carrying the idol across the river in a preview that showed that Kucha won Immunity.
>This makes me believe this >adds a twist to the >picture as in she gives >it away....if she gives it >away and then gets boot, >I don't think we will >EVER see any one do >it again....
...of course this is what it makes you believe, and that is EXACTLY why the immuniyt winneer was given to us so easily this ep......so certain people in the spoiling community would rack their brain overanalyzing things until they were convinced that anyone BUT tammy ends up with Immunity this week.
Its very simple when you think about it..... **we learn last ep about the new transferred immunity rule. ** in the previews we get a shot that only the spoilers would pick up on of Tammy wearing the necklace. **naturally, a theory pops up that MB NEVER gives us any thing this easy so obviously this means that Tammy either gives it away or was given it herself. THAT is exactly what MB wanted to happen when he threw us that bone....that way when the obvious does happen and Tammy wins and keeps Immunity he can sit back on his throne and laugh at all the spoilers who overanalyzed this one and missed what was essentially a freebie. Remember Occams Razor, and then spoiling suddenly becomes a lot less confusing.
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-16-02, 09:29 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: not true Cowboyroo (that rhymes)" |
I don't think that will happen either, just trying to add interest....One thing I did think about though is the "What are John's plans with Sean and Vee"...It makes me wonder if that wasn't a red herring to go with the Sean spoilers out there to point us toward a Kathy/Neleh/or Paschal boot since spoiler world is not going for the obvious Sean boot. I really think (hope, more like hope) these people aren't morons like the past 3 shows and let themselves get pagonged once again... But then again...I wish for that every season.
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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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04-17-02, 02:31 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: not true Cowboyroo (that rhymes)" |
I too hope, yes hope, that The non-Rotu 4 will team up, but they never will..they never do. So sad, but looks mighty bad for Kathy.
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citygirl 35 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-17-02, 01:35 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: not true Cowboyroo (that rhymes)" |
This is the second reference I've seen to Occams Razor - what is that? Please don't flame at me - it's just a question....
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samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-17-02, 02:45 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Boot Speculation Episode 8" |
Great Job Nightscribe!!One thing about Sean: While the obvious screams, "Get rid of the guy," this is also the time where a player needs to start thinking about who they would want to go up against in the final 2. Plus you know that some of the rest of the challenges have to be water based, and he's definately not a threat there. With respect to the "parents" rumor: If they said "someone gets a visit from Johnny Cochran or Al Sharpton, I'd think of Sean. But we can also assume that this could be Neleh. I would think she would win a challenge involving her family. And finally the weight loss spoilers: I don't really like these too much either. You also have to consider that muscle weighs more than fat, so a fit or muscular person could have a significant weight loss and not necessarily look super thin.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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