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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
encouraged to read the
complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
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"(sorry) - "the chart" revisited "
Maraarotu 80 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-12-02, 10:51 PM (EST)
 
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"(sorry) - "the chart" revisited " |
LAST EDITED ON 04-14-02 AT 09:32 PM (EST)First of all this is a new thread because it is specifically comparing the S4 series to the S1 series. Introduction order vs. boot order. S4 and S3 are not a factor duh? Why i didn't compare the individual series to S4 - I don't know but guess what - there is a inverse pattern between the pairings in S1 and S4. if you're bored - check it out. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_files/3cba2d906e4de73d.html
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-13-02, 00:05 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: (sorry) - "the chart" revisited " |
Spoke too soon, actually Vee and Sean would both have to be safe this week for the pattern to hold.
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TechNoir 9741 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-12-02, 11:50 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: (sorry) - "the chart" revisited " |
So the theory goes that folks who were introduced early in S1 left early in S1 and those who were introduced early in S4 go late in S4, right? It looks like EPM has cleverly inserted this secret pattern in the introduction but you have uncovered it. And he was smart enough to only do it on S1 and S4 .... I guess it would be harder to catch him that way. Do you think he has put a secret message in the introduction so that the people who know about it can beat the Las Vegas odds? Or is there some other reason? 
60 Pixel Series, No. 2
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Rebel Crown 1413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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04-13-02, 00:17 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: (sorry) - "the chart" revisited " |
LAST EDITED ON 04-13-02 AT 04:16 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 04-13-02 AT 03:56 AM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 04-13-02 AT 03:42 AM (EST) I'm glad you started a new thresd. What I have to offer has nothing to do with yours but the "numbers people" will be here. It gives me a good place to put this. Since I have no life and it rained all day, I threw in the "Survivor" tape and watched it all again. Yes, it was painful and my eyes feel like Big Bastard's looked, but it was for a good cause. I wanted to see how the numbers compared with the confessionals of each contestant. What I did was to count each "topic of conversation" AND each "cut to...(fill in the blank)". Example - in E1, Sean described Sarah's arrival. That's one "topic of conversation". But the camera cut to him 3 different times. I counted this as "1/3". Now, each contestant has a number like this, in each episode.
NON-JURY MEMBERS , episode, TOTAL
1. Peter 4/6 - 4/6
2. Patricia 3/4, 2/2 - 5/6
3. Hunter 2/2, 5/5, 4/7 - 11/14
4. Sarah 2/2, 2/3, 0-0, 3/3 - 7/8
5. Gabe 2/2, 2/2, 3/3, 1/1, 3/3 - 11/11
6. Gina 5/7, 3/4, 3/4, 9/10, 5/7, 6/6 - 31/38
7. Rob 5/6, 6/8, 3/7, 3/8, 4/5, 9/12, 7/10 - 37/56
JURY AND/OR WINNERS
John 4/6, 5/7, 5/6, 0/0, 6/10, 7/11, 0/0 - 27/40
Sean 8/12, 3/7, 2/3, 2/3, 4/5, 2/2, 1/2 - 22/34
Kathy 3/5, 3/4, 2/3, 7/7, 3/5, 5/6, 9/15 - 32/45
Vee 3/3, 4/5, 4/4, 4/5, 1/2, 0/0, 0/0 - 16/19
Paschal 2/2, 1/1, 2/2, 3/3, 2/2, 4/5, 1/2 - 15/16
Tammy 3/3, 2/2, 3/4, 3/3, 1/1, 2/2, 1/1 - 15/16
Neleh 2/3, 1/1, 2/2, 2/2, 3/3, 2/3, 0/0 - 12/14
Robert 3/3, 1/1, 2/2, 0/0, 3/5, 2/2, 2/3 - 13/16
Zoe 1/1, 0/0, 1/1, 0/0, 0/0, 0/0, 0/0 - 2/2
Of course, Rob was the star of the first half, with Gina as the leading lady. I'm really not sure what it all the rest of the numbers mean in the endgame - I have no theory or charts and graphs. I DID, get a "gut" feeling that Tammy was being set up for the win. However, I have long held that opinion, so I may be biased. Almost all of her "confessionals" were narration of the story itself. I thought this might be good reference material, if anything.
Now, I'm off to smoke and watch the pretty colors.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-13-02, 11:04 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: (sorry) - "the chart" revisited " |
Something nagged at me so I came back to look, turns out the next boot can't be John, Vee or Sean, since the next boot goes up from Rob but the following three all have to go down for the pattern to hold. If Paschal is boot #8 then John has to be boot #9, Vee has to be boot #10, and Sean has to be boot #11. Neleh can't win. At risk this week are Neleh, Robert, Kathy, Tammy, Zoe and Paschal. If Neleh goes then the General can't win. SMILES ARE FREE
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-14-02, 01:49 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Remember "the pairings"" |
Maraarotu (read this post in a calm, even-tempered voice), please explain to me why the pairings you have used, dropping out every other possible pairing (2 to 3, 4 to 5, etc.), are any more important in this theory than those you have dropped. In the last theory you had I fully understood, after awhile, why you were dropping out those pairings, but this time I don't see any sense to it. You have a simple observation here, that the ups-and-downs in S4 are occuring opposite of how they occured in S1, therefore there seems to be no point in dropping any correlation since nothing is dropping out.And please, if you come up with any more charts, write out full explanations, make it easy to understand for us. You only invite negative posts by making puzzles for people to figure out. This board is supposed to be a collaborative effort, participation. You have a very interesting observation here, that the S4 up-and-down boot pattern is occuring opposite to how it occured in S1. There is a potential here that may be worthy of speculation: Why would that be? SMILES ARE FREE
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Maraarotu 80 desperate attention whore postings
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04-14-02, 06:28 AM (EST)
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15. "thanks dabo" |
advice taken - and i'm only trying to make a statement to everyone here - not just "bump" my thread.it seems as though i shouldve just compared S1 to S4 - there appears to be a pattern - who knows (?) the "pairings" seem logical to me - kinda like Noah's Ark LOL i just have to believe that there is a pattern to be cracked! peace
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Maraarotu 80 desperate attention whore postings
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04-13-02, 11:29 PM (EST)
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12. "completely different" |
this is completely different - it has nothing to do with statistics or math - it is simply a comparison between S1 and S4.I'm "sorry" you feel that way - but it is, nonetheless, of interest to other people. Hindsight is 20/20 and it is easy to criticize after the fact - and just because one theory doesn't work - why not try another?? Obviously if you went to more than one math major to ask about this - you must've been one of the few that were interested!
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-16-02, 12:08 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: completely different" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-16-02 AT 12:11 PM (EST)this is completely different - it has nothing to do with statistics or math - it is simply a comparison between S1 and S4. You're about to draw my ire again with B.S. comments like this. The very BASIS of your comparision is both mathematical and statistical, for crying out loud. Keep this up, and I'm going to ask Evil Bert to "borrow" shakestheclown's flamethrower, set it to "VOLCANO ASH" and (as Alicia likes to say) work its magic in your general direction... AND, for the record, this is not a complaint about posting this stuff. Post it if you like, and others can respond if they like. I'm just tired of these crappy responses you give people from time to time. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-17-02, 08:45 AM (EST)
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25. "completely different... HOW? WHY?" |
>This is a different pattern than the
>one Maraarotu previously discovered, and
>much simpler and easier to see. See, dabs... you're the only one who has made an effort to try and explain this -- I've been frustrated (along with several others) to figure out what Maraarotu is trying to do here because the facts are just getting thrown out there without an explanation, and then we get all these bumps to move the thread up to the top simply because Maraarotu wants to see his name up at the top and flame someone. Take a look at Maraarotu's original post here: First of all this is a new thread because it is specifically comparing the S4 series to the S1 series. Introduction order vs. boot order. S4 and S3 are not a factor duh? Why i didn't compare the individual series to S4 - I don't know but guess what - there is a inverse pattern between the pairings in S1 and S4. if you're bored - check it out. duh? He doesn't say why there is an inverse pattern between S1 and S4. He doesn't say why S4 and S3 are not a factor. He just says "guess what" and I'm supposed to call in a mathematican to help me decipher this stuff on my own? Of course we're going to flame away here -- us masses need to be told what we're supposed to see and there needs to be an explanation for the changes and so on. To have Maraarotu come here, spew out stuff that we have to try and guess what we're supposed to see, and then bump it up and yell at us for having disagreeing opinions is not good procedure for this board. I call this a R.I.I.P. thread... and that's what I'll be doing from here on.  
"I'm the General and that's that."
Robert DeCanio, April 11/02
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RocketGirl7 16 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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04-17-02, 11:10 AM (EST)
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27. "An attempted explanation" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-17-02 AT 11:25 AM (EST)I'm sorry you feel that way... Maraarotu has found SOMETHING, whether it will hold up or not remains to be seen. For Pepe and any other confused but curious people out there I will try to explain the pattern that I see in this. If you look at the S1 Intro order you will see that there is a kind of up/down pattern in the order that they are booted off. For instance, when you are at boot 1, you have to go up the chart to get to boot 2, then down to boot 3, up to boot 4, and so on. I found it helpful to write this whole pattern down. Now, you can take the inverse of this pattern by changing every up to down and vice-versa. If for S1 you go UP the chart to boot 2, for S4 you would go DOWN the chart. You can write this whole pattern for S4 down like this: start with 1
go down to 2
up to 3
down to 4
up to 5
down to 6
down to 7
up to 8
down to 9
down to 10
down to 11
up to 12
up to 13
down to 14
up to 15
down to 16 (but this one may not work since I'm guessing no one knows who wins yet...) If you compare this with the actual intro order for S4 and those who have already been booted the order does actually work! You start with Peter, go down to get to Patricia, up to Hunter, and so on. That's my explanation, I hope it helps... for those that understand that far, here's a little extrapolation for you: We are currently at boot 7 (Rob). Rob is at the bottom of the chart, and since we must go up to get to boot 8, that leaves everybody as a possibility. BUT, notice that to get to boots 9,10, and 11, we have to go down all three times. So if for example Sean were boot 8, we would have nowhere to go down to for boots 9, 10 and 11. That's how some of us have concluded that for this pattern to hold Sean, Vee, and John (the 3 lowest still not booted on the chart) should be safe this week. Should be a good test of this then since in my mind Sean and John both seem like good candidates for getting the boot. Edited to note that this is not Maraarotu's "paired" analysis... it's a simpler pattern that I see. Will someone who understands the "paired" analysis and has a good knack for explaining stuff like this please explain it to me? I'm still trying to figure that interpretation out!
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pakooga 44 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-17-02, 11:18 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: An attempted explanation" |
What I see from the chart:Sean can go this week and Maraarotu is speculating this. Then he/she has for a boot order: Kathy
Vee
Paschal
Neleh
Zoe
John
Robert
Tammy Seems reasonable to me.
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fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings
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04-14-02, 09:43 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: (sorry) - "the chart" revisited " |
I usually keep my mouth shut and just observe the drama. However, I do have to say that I enjoy any post that shows obvious effort/attempt to spoil or speculate. This is one while I do not pretend to completely understand where he is coming from, I enjoy studying it. If I am not mistaken, it would be locked on Fanatics. As for emailing - why this is an open forum. Do not open the thread if one is not interested. We try about everything to spoil the show. Why not statistics? I have a relative with a doctorate in math. He says it has good potential. As I see it, I agree with Dabo. Vee and Sean would appear to be safe. Lets see what happens.
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leadballoon 16 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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04-14-02, 08:21 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: (sorry) - "the chart" revisited " |
Since there is no speculation board and this topic is pretty much speculation I thought I'd add my two cents here.
The constant tangibles between the first three shows and this one so far is the majority boots off the minority. Unlike S1 and S2, S3 introduced mixing of the tribes prior to the merge and again in S4. In S3 original Boran was 6-4 over original Samburu at the merge. They booted Clarence because they could afford to leaving it 5-4. In S4, original Rotu (O.R.) went in 7-3 over original Maruumu (O.R.). And Rob was booted leaving it 7-2. Now aside from the Clarence boot, the next 5 boots came from the Samburu tribe. Even though Kelly was a original Boran, she lost the trust from the original Borans namely Lex. Boran was lucky that the original Samburu disliked Brandon enough to kill their chances. With a 7-2 gap O.R. can start bumping off O.R. and still hold a comfortable lead over O.M. S/V are pretty much open for suggestion at the moment. N/P aren't playing the game the same way Rob M. tried to expose J/R/T/V of playing it. And Kathy is looking for any amount of security right now. She should find it with N/P. The swing votes lie with S/V. Vee seems pretty level headed and Sean dislikes John enough to ruin his plans to vindicate Rob M.'s departure.
Again, sorry this is not spoiler information. Just comparisons I noticed between the different episodes. And a bit of my opinion. Peace
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RocketGirl7 16 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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04-14-02, 12:18 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: (sorry) - "the chart" revisited " |
Up till this point I've just kept my mouth shut around here, but I feel obligated to say something now. I've been fascinated with Maraarotu's threads... although a little skeptical, but after looking at this for a while I think it might be something. I came to the same conclusions as dabo... Neleh can't win and John, Vee and Sean can't be next. I wondered however how likely it was that this pattern would exist at all. If I just randomly mixed up all 16 contestants (still in the 2 teams though since I assume Burnett would keep that) and put them in a random order what are the chances of me getting this up/down pattern that matches up with S1. I did it with little peices of paper and out of 10 trials I got an order that showed the same pattern once. So it doesn't seem too likely that this order is random... but then I'm no statistician! Anyone out there have a better way to test this?
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Maraarotu 80 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-02, 04:47 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: more numbers" |
do you mean the order that they pop up on the right of the home screen? or the listed order of names?
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brenda1234 24 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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04-17-02, 08:11 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: more numbers" |
I meant the order they pop up on the right. I think it is signifigant in some way.
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pakooga 44 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-17-02, 11:02 AM (EST)
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26. "why bash peoples' attempts?" |
I've remained quiet for awhile but I feel the need to interject on this. Why is it that certain people feel the need to trash others' attempts at spoiling? I've followed this chart "thing" and find it amusing if nothing else - but I certainly cannot say whether it is an accurate forecast or not - but, who cares? If Maraarotu is on to something, should we not just let it play out and see? I strongly believe that those that are opposed to this are jealous in some weird way - perhaps because it may be a valid chart and they never thought of it themselves - I don't know? If people are accusing him/her of bumping up the thread why do they feel compelled to write nonsense and bump it themselves? From what I see Maraarotu has only replied to this thread 3 times - reasonable for a thread with 25 messages - and considering some of the flames, how could you not respond. This is just my opinion - please do not respond if you are afraid it may "bump" the thread - something that I personally do not see Maraarotu doing!!!!
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Solitaire 103 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-17-02, 01:27 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: why bash peoples' attempts?" |
I think there are a few issues:1. MaraRotu has never really provided a clear explanation of any of the charts. I personally think they might be useful, but it's tough to tell when I haven't understood them. 2. Some people get upset when they see something that is not immediately understandable provided with no explanation as to why it works. That's fair. Frankly, I would have appreciated a clearer explanation from MaraRotu, but I think I finally have an understanding of the current chart (thanks Rocketgirl) 3. Some of these people who don't understand what the charts mean have decided that instead of trying to understand, they would consider the whole thing junk and flame away. 4. Some posters in support of the chart have become defensive about it--to the point where even reasonable requests for further information have been met with such replies as "just look at the charts and you'll see" which is not particularly helpful and further upsets the people who were upset in the first place. With my low DAW count, I don't expect a lot of people are particularly interested in what I have to say...but I'm going to say it anyways. My experience on other message boards and mailing lists is that when people write an opinion that is well backed up by sound reasoning, there is no controversy. When people do not explain their reasoning, however, that leads to people getting upset. And people getting upset tends to get the original poster defensive, which doesn't really get us anywhere. My point? (I do have one, really) Asking for explanations with reasonable language is more likely to get you somewhere than telling people to shove it (guess I'm a pollyanna after all--people IRL would never believe it). If no understandable explanation is offered, ignore it and it will disappear.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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04-17-02, 05:59 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: why bash peoples' attempts?" |
>My point? (I do have one, really) Asking for
>explanations with reasonable language is
>more likely to get you somewhere than telling people to
>shove it (guess I'm a pollyanna after all--people IRL would
>never believe it). If no understandable explanation is offered,
>ignore it and it will disappear. The point that dabo and I and others have been making is that we WANT to discover spoilers so that's why we are reading Maraarotu's thread, but if no attempt is made to help lead us to why so-and-so is going to get booted and we don't understand it, then it becomes a waste of space. We want to be able to fully understand things and reduce the amount of clutter we have out there -- the fact is, there is a LOT of clutter... many of the posts here have been in trying to understand just what the heck is the chart saying instead of having a clear understanding and creating a meaningful dialogue to debate who will get booted. Saying "look at it, and have fun," and when people question what is it and then get flamed by Maraarotu, it is irritating. A simple and clear explanation by Maraarotu (similar to RocketGirl's post) in the very first post would have reduced the flaming to nothing.
"I'm the General and that's that."
Robert DeCanio, April 11/02
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pakooga 44 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-17-02, 06:13 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: why bash peoples' attempts?" |
i see rocketgirls explanation as being wrong - i can understand mararotus explanation.the pairing of boots ie. 1&2 3&4 etc. are opposite to the order of the pairings from S1 what he/she is saying is that the 7th boot must be above the 8th boot ; the 9th boot must be above the 10th boot; the 11th boot must be below the 12th boot; the 13th boot must be above the 14th boot ; and the 16th boot must be below the 15th boot. It seems clear to me. I assume that mararotu is speculating the choices of next boot based on fitting all the names in the proper order. As the game progresses, if the chart is accurate, it will narrow the choices down more and more. mararotu - am I correct?
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Maraarotu 80 desperate attention whore postings
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04-17-02, 06:23 PM (EST)
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32. "YES, YES, YES, YES, YES!!!!!!!" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-17-02 AT 09:20 PM (EST)>i see rocketgirls explanation as being
>wrong - i can understand
>mararotus explanation.
>
>the pairing of boots ie. 1&2
>3&4 etc. are opposite to
>the order of the pairings
>from S1
>
>what he/she is saying is that
>the 7th boot must be ****7th below 8th****
>above the 8th boot ;
>the 9th boot must be
>above the 10th boot; the
>11th boot must be below
>the 12th boot; the 13th
>boot must be above the
>14th boot ; and the
>16th boot must be below
>the 15th boot.
>
>It seems clear to me.
>I assume that mararotu is
>speculating the choices of next
>boot based on fitting all
>the names in the proper
>order.
>
>As the game progresses, if the
>chart is accurate, it will
>narrow the choices down more
>and more.
>
>mararotu - am I correct? ***************************************************
YES - THATS IT - THANKS SO MUCH FOR THE EXPLANATION ps - you can refer to me as "he" peace!
***************************************************
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RocketGirl7 16 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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04-17-02, 08:42 PM (EST)
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34. "Questions" |
Thanks Pakooga for the explanation. I think I understand now except for a couple things:>what he/she is saying is that
>the 7th boot must be
>above the 8th boot ; Did you mean the 7th boot must be BELOW the 8th boot? That would make it opposite of S1. If the above correction is a good assumption on my part then can't you make a lot of combinations of ways that this theory would play out? For instance, here's two other possible ways it could play out that as far as I can tell work as well: 8-Paschal
9-Kathy
10-John
11-Sean
12-Vee
13-Neleh
14-Robert
15-Zoe
16-Tammy or how bout this (yes, it's far-fetched I know!): 8-Kathy
9-Zoe
10-Sean
11-John
12-Robert
13-Tammy
14-Vee
15-Paschal
16-Neleh Please tell me whether I am understanding this correctly. If I am, how did you come up with the boot order you did Maraarotu? Or is it just an "example" boot order? Just trying to clarify.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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