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dekko 54 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 09-26-01, 05:38 PM (EST) "How far behind?" It's no secret: Reality show editors play tricks on us. They convince us that the grandparents are so far behind that they'll never make it, that getting a Fast Forward pass means you'll automatically be first, and that Jerri is an evil #####. (Okay, the last one wasn't hard.) In an effort to make things a little bit clearer for "The Amzing Race" and predicting who'll go next (which, here, has clearly become something to do, maybe not on the obsessive "Survivor" level, but still something.), it serves to examine the time frames of the players, naturally screwed up through the editing. (The show and website can give you the place markers, but the difference between 5 minutes and 5 hours between players is a big one.) So here's the rankings as of the beginnings of episode 2, with notes how the teams end up: Rob & Brennan (Leave at 11:23 pm, in lead): Teamed up with Team Guido and Frank and Margarita. Found the Arc pretty easily, ended up in third. The ground is still wet, they can't be far behind Team Guido. Team Guido (11:37, 14 minutes behind): See above, then split off. Important to notice here how close they were at the beginning to Rob & Brennan who got the FF--it's easy to see that they may have ended up in first, had they hustled a little bit more in Ep.1. Ended up in second. The ground is slick and wet (one of them, Bill I believe, slips) by the time they get to the finish, like it just stopped raining not long ago. Frank & Margarita (12:05 am, 42 minutes behind): See above. Ended up in fourth, probably very close to Team Guido and Rob & Brennan. Lenny & Karen (1:52 am, 2 hrs 29 minutes behind): Due to a detour, ended up in last place... must not have been too far behind second-to-last, as Nancy and Emily are also there at the finish line when both teams meet the eliminated team. Pat & Brenda (3:55 am, 4 hrs, 32 minutes behind): Found the FF and ended up in first. It's raining when they get there. (It is not raining in anyone else's footage, which leads me to think they're relatively far ahead.) Kim & Leslie (5:33 am, 6 hrs, 10 minutes behind): Ended up in last, which isn't too surprising.. they're less than 2 hours from last place when they left. The fact that they're seen with Paul & Amie (who fight quite a bit and waste time) at the airport means that the last three still-competing contestants must be very close. Paul & Aimee (5:50 am, 6 hrs, 27 minutes behind): The editing makes them look very doomed, but they end up in 7th. The ground looks relatively dry by the time they get out of the airport, so it's probably stopped raining for several hours. David & Margarette (6:24 am, 7 hrs, 1 minute behind): The editing basically eliminates them from the show, which means that they probably didn't freak out and bicker endlessly. That's why they went from 8th to 6th. (As someone else pointed out, you never even see 'em up in the Tower.) Kevin & Drew (7:09 am, 7 hrs, 42 minutes behind): It's really kind of amazing how well they caught up... They're now in fifth, but may not have if it weren't for some (American?) tourist pointing out the Arc. It's still pretty wet (The cab they leave just before the finish still has drops of water on its' windshield), so they must be close. Nancy & Emily (8 hrs, 3 minutes behind): They end up in the close-together final three, with Lenny & Karen and Paul & Aimee. My guess is that the time differences between the teams have gotten pretty great and it's going to take a combination of an FF pass and a miracle for some of the last teams to catch up. Here's a rough estimate of the times, with one line representing about an hour: Pat & Brenda ! Team Guido Rob & Brennan Frank & Margarita ! Kevin & Drew ! ! David & Margaritte ! ! ! Paul & Aimee Nancy & Emily Lenny & Karen Since nobody got to the Arc in darkness, there (most likely) isn't more than 15 hours between first and last place. Comments? Questions as to why I'd bother? (Because I'm bored and obsessed, okay?) Paul (Side note: Anyone else notice that Paul wears a hat with his name on it? Why?)   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: How far behind? dekko 09-26-01 1  RE: How far behind? Stairway2Dayton 09-26-01 2    Very nice work AyaK 09-26-01 3        RE: Very nice work dekko 09-26-01 4            RE: Very nice work Lisapooh 09-27-01 7            RE: Very nice work Sammy_Swordfish 09-27-01 8  RE: How far behind? Drive My Car 09-26-01 5  RE: How far behind? Survivorerist 09-26-01 6

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dekko 54 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 09-26-01, 05:45 PM (EST) 1. "RE: How far behind?" I realize it's bad luck to reply to your own post, but I wanted to add this list of groups in which you can see at least one person on or boarding the train "That may be someone's undoing:" Team Guido Frank & Margarita Nancy & Emily Paul & Amie Guessing that David & Margaretta is a red herring, that leaves me to guess (despite my vote for Paul & Amie) that Lenny & Karen go next, especially since it's Nancy that comments on someone not making it, and clearly Nancy would only know about those close to her in the standings. Dekko   Top

Stairway2Dayton 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 09-26-01, 05:50 PM (EST) 2. "RE: How far behind?" LAST EDITED ON 09-26-01 AT 05:51 PM (EST) Nice analysis, Paul. Now I have to watch the weather, too? I'm having enough trouble just keeping the teams straight. It seems like the flight times are the great equalizer. If a team gets to an airport just after a flight leaves, and has to wait for the next, they can end up flying with someone who left hours after them. That's assuming they don't get LOST (oh wait, wrong show). Team Guido has shown a lot of skill, but they have mainly been on familiar turf. They obviously knew NY and lived in Paris. Did they ever travel to South Africa before? I think that all of Paul's clothes have name tags sewn in them. It helps him tell the back from the front. Since the previews make the grandparents look like goners, I'm guessing that they will finish in the top 6 in the next episode. S2D   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-26-01, 06:02 PM (EST) 3. "Very nice work" Good going, dekko. I agree with your analysis, except for one point: Lenny and Karyn lost a TON of time searching for the Arc, what with Lenny's three trips up the tower and the side trip to Notre Dame. That puts them very far behind. But it also means that, providing that they don't screw up again, they were significantly faster than the other cellar-dwellers in the rest of the show so far... And, of course, someone else could "pull a Lenny" this week...   Top

dekko 54 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 09-26-01, 06:21 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Very nice work" Well, they did lose well over 5 hours to end up in (now) last place on their search... but they couldn't be too far behind as people that came in before them are still hanging around the finish line when the teachers showed up. I'm guessing that they probably wouldn't be hanging around for long.. You've got twelve hours before you can go anywhere, it's likely you'd rather be getting some rest instead of waiting around for the losers to make their appearance. Besides, on Lenny's final trip to the top of the tower, he talks with Emily, leading me to think they're not far behind them. (My prediction that Lenny & Karyn go next doesn't have to do with their playing ability, but the theory that the next likely group to "miss the train" would be Kevin & Drew, who seem significantly far ahead.) Dekko   Top

Lisapooh 12664 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-27-01, 02:43 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Very nice work" I've just got a couple of quicks points - and welcome BTW - always great to get new people - especially those that jump right in with awesome ideas and analysis. Anyway - It seems like the time any given team is ahead is ultimately negated in some way: bus, train or plane schedules - the opening of the museums, etc. So a group of teams or all the teams regains equal footing at some point. It seems like this will continue if not by necessity (the limited number of transportation options) or by design (hiding the clues in places where access is controlled by circumstances the contestants can't control) I also think it's important to remember that Rob and Brennan have already used their fast-forward but are competing directly with two teams that haven't. So unfortunately the Guidos and Frank and Margarita can loose them whenever they choose. And any of the teams behind them can use it to springboard past them too. I'm curious to see how the Festers do now that they're in first. Can't believe the moms managed to go from first to worst in one episode.   Top

Sammy_Swordfish 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 09-27-01, 04:00 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Very nice work" You know the one thing that really makes me wonder about that Lenny and Karyn team is the time difference between Lenny/Karyn and Nancy/Emily. The beginning of the Episode three showed us that even though both teams left the Eiffel Tower at the same time in that mad dash to the finish line, there was still a 40 minute time difference between the two team's arrival to the mat. Lenny/Karyn must have jumped onto an extremely slow taxi in extremely slow traffic. Since the Arc really isn't all that far from the Eiffel Tower, I really don't understand the time difference. Of course, I could be wrong and should probably check my videotape of this week's episode before I post this. Ah, whatever.   Top

Drive My Car 20045 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-26-01, 06:35 PM (EST) 5. "RE: How far behind?" Welcome dekko and Stairway, great to have you with us. Thanks for breaking it all down for us dekko, I am a bit clearer on where they are all. This seems to be problem to alot of people watching. Hope to see you both over on our Survivor boards. EBug   Top

Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 09-26-01, 07:12 PM (EST) 6. "RE: How far behind?" Very nice analysis, dekko. You're definitely going to fit right in with our spoiler group here. And I second DMC's welcome to you and S2D. Have a pleasant time! "Aren't instruments fun?" -Alyson Hannigan, American Pie 2   Top

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