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"Something to consider before voting for Rob "
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-11-02, 01:07 PM (EST)
 
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"Something to consider before voting for Rob " |
I, like many other posters have been thinking for the past couple of weeks that Rob would be gone by this episode. Much like Ayak stated in the vote thresd, I too believed that Gina and Rob HAD to be the next two voted out after the Gabe boot.The spoilers we have seem to point to Rob, not so much by the spoilers directly related to Rob but because of the process of elimination regarding spoilers pointiing towards other castmenbers staying in the game. IMO, there are only two candidates for the boot this week, Rob and Sean. I say this because I don't believe there is any way that OldMu and NewMu will combine forces this week....not with only 1-2 days to repair all the damage done to OldMu's rep by Gina's badmouthing of her former tribemates. Because of that, I don't think there is anyway a Rotu-4 member is going down yet (so John is safe). Another likely target is Kathy....however, knowing what I know about Burn-it and his love of misdirection, I think we can eliminate Kathy from the list of potential bootees based on the fact that all the previews basically scream that Kathy is getting booted...which we all know means that she is safe. So, can someone else from NewMu be targeted because of John's promise to eliminate NewMu before OldMu? I don't think so. Rotu-4 might have been willing to get rid of Kathy at this point, but I don't think they would get rid of one of the two most popular people in the game (Paschal or heleN) and thereby all but openly encourage teh remaining NewMu's to join up with OldMu. Plus, its obvious from the previews that Rotu-4 tells Kathy that she is NOT a target....this statement can be taken to mean that Rotu-4 probably assures Kathy that an OldMu is getting voted out.....seeing how John is playing the game I seriously doubt he would blatantly lie to Kathy and the rest of NewMu at this point in the game, especially when he can sever all ties with his promise to OldMu after his blowout with Rob and Sean that is shown in the previews. So, I think we are going to be left with an OldMu boot, and more specifically a Rob or Sean boot. Now, the spoilers favor a Rob boot......Loree's source (who was right on the money about Gabe) says that Sean is good for the final 5-7....everyone at Loser Lodge loves Rob whereas they have very little to say about Sean....Wanda was right about Gina/Hunter and she said on April 1 that Rob's time would come soon....SNews broke the story on Sean being a contestant and also has him winning an individual reward most likely at the final 5. In fact, the ONLY spoiler that would suggest Sean going instead of Rob is that Varner picked Sean. Varner has been pretty much on the money so far...however, if he gets this pick right I think it is safe to say that Varner might very well have an inside source since Sean is NOT the logical pick at this point. So, it's looking pretty bad for Rob, right? Well, there is one other factor that I can't seem to get out of my head......IMMUNITY. One thing we have learned over the last couple Survivors is that the first IC will be some sort of test of endurance. We also know that the contestant that needs to win the most is ALWAYS in a position to win the IC when it comes down to the end. We had Keith standing on the pole for 10 hours in Australia and we had Clarence making it to the last two before giving it away to Teresa (who also might have felt vulnerable at that point). The point is, its hard to bet against the most vulnerable contestant at this point because the IC is tailored toward the contestant who has the most will power....and at this point, by definition the contestant with the most will power is the contestant who feels the most vulnerable. And that person is Rob. Now, we've already seen that Rob is clearly a strong willed competitor when it comes to the challenges....he willed his team to victory in the last IC when it was clear that his ass was on the line....he, just like Hunter, never gave up paddling in the boat race....and he ran his ass off in the woods in the relay race. SURe, he blew the food eating challenge, but that has more to do with his gag reflex than his desire. Now, in terms of this IC, Rob is clearly the most needy. Kathy may feel just as needy, but in a competition between those two my money is on Rob. If Sean has half a brain he will realize that he has to beat Rob in the IC, but we've already seen that Sean has a serious lack of drive and desire when it comes to playing this game. He has already been shown giving up on several occassions in challenges as well as in the overall aspect of playing the game...so I don't really consider Sean a threat. That leaves us with Rob. As much as I want to vote for Rob based on the spoilers...and as much as I DON'T want to vote for Sean because fo the spoilers as well as the OFG theory, at this point I am really having second thoughts about the vote.
There is something else about Sean that I am concerned about....
During the last ep I noticed on more than one occasion we would see a heated connversation between Rob and John or ROb and Sean....during those conversations, Rob would say his part and then we would see Sean talking, but we NEVER heard what he said cause MB would cut to a voice over with Rob instead. Why isn't MB allowing us to hear what Sean has to say at those points? Also, it is clear from the previews that Sean is just as much involved in the dispute with John as Rob is....yet, the whole naration is focused on Rob/John with NO mention of Sean. As for the OFG theory.....Sean is shown in the previews during the Rob/John argument...Sean is ALSO a part of that argument yet as I just stated we have no idea what he is saying. For all we know, and we know plenty of Sean's personality, Sean is making more waves than Rob in these arguments/discussions. Yet, MB isn't showing ANY of it. Why is that? Here is my thoughts on that....during the pre-merge ep's there are so many players and so many storylines that it is important for MB to throw the bootee in our face each week so the audience will be familiar with he/she when they get tossed at TC. But, after the merge, that is not so much a concern because several people (especially Sean) are already well known to the audience and booting them at ANY time would really suprise nobody. So, then MB turns to his next favorite hobby....bootee hiding and misdirection. If MB were to show clips of another Sean outburst during the previews the vote at this point would probably be near unanimous for Sean....so instead MB has the option of showing in the previews the disputs that will lead to Sean getting the boot, but in a way that does not paint Sean as the obvious target. Alrigth, I'm done rambling and I think I've made my points clear, and by the end of this post I am now leaning towards picking Sean....so now I need to let this simmer in my head for a few hours before making my final decisions. All I'm saying is take your time with this pick, don't rush to pick Rob just cause it seems like the obvious pick...remember, this is the merge so new spoiling rules might very well apply.
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strone 70 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 01:15 PM (EST)
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1. "Shakes, you da man." |
I totally agree, Rob fits the description of having will power to win this IC no matter what, plus the lack of Seans words does make it interesting. However, I do see Sean of being able to pull off the same feat, he is much more physically fit and with all of his loafing around, he has plenty of stamina in him. I do feel its a toss up between Rob and Seand for IC, then the loser of that going home.
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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 01:16 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Something to consider before voting for Rob " |
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-02 AT 05:41 PM (EST)shakes, you may be right, BUT. . . Remember that Kathy was shown last week doing her chi kung thing. If she practices this routinely, it COULD very well give her an edge in what will probably be an ENDURANCE IC. Yes, Rob was playing last week like his life depended on winning--and probably will again--but Kathy is obviously every bit as aware that her butt's on the line, and I'm thinking she could win the IC, leaving Rob directly in the line of fire.
GT
Society attacks early when the individual is helpless.B.F.Skinner Edited to credit DK for recognizing the particular "brand" of "flaky yoga" discipline Kathy was demonstrating, and pointing out how much it would help her out in an endurance contest--not just willpower and balance, but breathing and mental equilibrium! Don't forget, ClownBoy  , she's gonna be pissed about SOMETHING, and I suspect it's because she realizes she isn't in on the F4 alliance (duh!) The day a hockey player--or ANY of these guys--can pass a human being through his nether region will be the day I pick him over the desperate, paranoid female in any endurance challenge. BTW (OT)--this forum has really sucked this season. . . you really ought to grace us with your pointy-headed presence more often--not just to keep the moronic threads in check, but to start more intelligent debates like this one!
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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 01:19 PM (EST)
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3. "Understandable, but..." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-02 AT 01:22 PM (EST)Shakes, I see where you are coming from, but don't think there is enough logic/evidence to support a Sean boot. John knows Rob is his biggest threat after their conversation last week. He has openly admitted to wanting Rob out of there. If John were to present Neleh/Pappy/Kathy with booting Rob, they aren't going to say that Sean should go first. I'm sure Gina painted an equally bad picture of both of them. After all, the racial tension wasn't known by former tribemates until the first few episodes were aired. I'll be sure to pay attention to Sean's editing this episode. I have noticed he's suddenly "out of the picture" since his blowup about being slaves when the switch occured. It strikes me as odd, but I haven't figured out what it all means. I can't buy that Sean is going this week though. Our bootee's have had nothing to say about him, while all have shown Rob as "redeemed". Edited to add that Sean could win an endurance Immunity. He is strong, small and compact. Granted, he can't crawl into a freezer like Rob, but let's remember, Sean is "representin'".
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VanQ 87 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 01:42 PM (EST)
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5. "SEAN...tired and defeated?" |
I think that this is a very very plausible occurence. Rob will fight to win the individual challenge at all costs. Putting Sean 2nd in line for the boot, given that old Rotu sticks together which I believe they will. And the conspicuous editing to make Sean a non-entity is leading me to believe that he is going. Also there is a video clip at the CBS site about Sean and how he is feeling sick and defeated, which might be a clue that Sean is not ready to fight for an IC in endurance, or even to remain in the game. See episode 6 "sean feeling down" vid clip.
The other 'spoiler' value is that Sean is not named in any of the descriptions in TV guide etc.. whereas Kathy and Rob are both named.
If Sean does go, can you imagine how angry Rob will be then?? YIKES! He will be feeling like a cornered wild animal.
Thanks Shakes, great analysis!
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 01:24 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Something to consider before voting for Rob " |
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-02 AT 01:27 PM (EST)NOW you tell us!  Just a couple of points: In fact, the ONLY spoiler that would suggest Sean going instead of Rob is that Varner picked Sean. Varner has been pretty much on the money so far...however, if he gets this pick right I think it is safe to say that Varner might very well have an inside source since Sean is NOT the logical pick at this point. Varner is expressing his opinion basically at MB's pleasure, and has been expressing said opinion to notoriously See-BS sites, such as ETOnline. If Varner TRULY had an inside source or KNEW what was about to happen, would it not be logical to assume he would not be allowed to put that out for our consumption? Now, in terms of this IC, Rob is clearly the most needy. Kathy may feel just as needy, but in a competition between those two my money is on Rob. Mine is too, but I've already voted in the IC poll to the effect that I don't think Kathy is going to be winning IC. Also, Rob may JUST outsmart himself enough to think he can do a Colby and jump off the pole (or whatever the challenge is). Last, Rob has failed his team in challenges on occasion (the little ball-in-the-hole maze comes to mind). So it'll depend on what the challenge is, but Rob's willpower might not be enough. One point to SUPPORT a Sean boot: Remembering Frank's editing in S-III.... Frank was edited strongly in one episode, everyone thought he'd be gone next... then that next episode, Frank was not seen AT ALL... then the NEXT episode after that, Frank was waxed. If this pattern is repeated, Sean is likely: Sean made his big speech to Gabe... then Sean disappeared next episode... and now comes that NEXT episode... 
*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Granvil the 4th 38 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 02:27 PM (EST)
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10. "Don't forget Hunter" |
Recall that in his Early Show interview, Hunter also said Sean was "an angry person". He and Gina may have come to this conclusion together or they may have both experienced it at LL.
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gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 02:10 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Something to consider before voting for Rob " |
"During the last ep I noticed on more than one occasion we would see a heated connversation between Rob and John or ROb and Sean....during those conversations,Rob would say his part and then we would see Sean talking, but we NEVER heard what he said cause MB would cut to a voice over with Rob instead. Why isn't MB
allowing us to hear what Sean has to say at those points?"I noticed that too and my first thought was that Sean was manipulating them, not that we were not seeing his outbursts. Why would John keep going around Sean if he was acting worse or the same as Rob? Why did Rob change into this loud in their face person. He never confronted Hunter about booting Sarah, just walked away. "In fact, the ONLY spoiler that would suggest Sean going instead of Rob is that Varner picked Sean." Jeff also said that he thought Sean could be a schemer.
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MeToo 158 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 03:32 PM (EST)
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18. "Also" |
The IC may also could be something in the water. Aquatic skills among this group are highly varied and could affect the outcome.Though I picked Rob in the poll to win the IC, the post-merge IC is often won by somebody who doesn't really need it AND after stupid cop-outs by those who clearly do (Clarence and Varner). I still pick Rob because in every situationw where I thought the contestant in question was smart enough to know better, they weren't (Clarence, Varner, Colby vs Tina etc.). I can't get that image of chicken-chasing Rob out of my head so I'm going opposite of my instinct to say that he'll know enough to put some heart and soul into this challenge and win it. However, Shakes's arguments are very good and they also go against my original John boot pick (haven't voted on that thread yet). If Rob's story isn't done, how could John's be? If Rob isn't fully "redeemed" yet, then John has a long way to go. It's quite possible that making Sean invisible is about all MB can do to "redeem" him if he's as miserable as we've seen so far. Just how reliable are the Sean spoilers? Thanks again, Shakes. This is excellent food for thought and in time for me to make a vote! MeToo
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 03:45 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: One Problem" |
>The only problem I see with
>your theory is that I
>don't know if a man
>can really ever have a
>good shot at one of
>these endurance challenges. Think
>back to S1: Kelly won
>both endurance challenges (that I
>can remember) and when she
>was up aganist Colleen, they
>were the last two.
...I only remember the one endurance challenge on the beams in the water......and sure, the girls did better, but you also have to look at some other factors. For one, Kelly and Colleen were the two most vulerable contestants that ep which plays into my theory that the people that NEED immunity the most do well in the endurance challenges. Also, that became more of a balancing challenge than an endurance challenge as the beams were removed...women always do better in balance challenges than men. Also, look at the male comeptition that ep...Sean, Rich and Rudy...Sean may be somewhat of comp, however I seem to remember him being weak athletically in most of the challenges. Rich and Rudy need no explanation as to their athletic ability.
>Think back to S2: Most
>of the people left at
>the end were women, and
>I don't think there's any
>doubt that Tina could have
>won it if she hadn't
>given it up.
....yes, 3 of the final four in this challenge were women (Chyna, Lislis, and Benedict Tina), and yes, Tina might very well still be on that friggen log to this day if she wanted to, but you can't deny that Keith was the most vulnerable person that ep and showed a ton of willpower to stay on the log for 10 hours...plus, he showed no signs of coming down even as Chyna started to fade. Also, as far as the men in that challenge....Colbster tanked on purpose, the unnamed black guy was sick and unable to compete, and Vermin had a bad knee and stated in interviews that he knew there was no way he would be able to go the distance. The other male was Kentucky Joe who is in his 50's but looks like he's older than the Colonel. So, once again the most needy person was able to hang all the way till the end with no sign of giving up.
Think
>back to S3: Teresa won
>(and I think would have
>won if it had been
>an out and out competition
>between Clarence and her... Clarence
>brought up the idea of
>doing paper,rock,scissors because he was
>getting tired).
....once again, the two most vulnerable people made it to the end. I agree that Teresa might very well have won, but the fact is that Clarence is an idiot and basically gave up at that point cause he was toooooo stupid to realize that he was getting voted out that night. Remember him trying to signal to the other Boran members during the challenge to see if he could make a deal with Teresa, all the while his ex-tribemates were planning to vote him out anyway.
Also, an
>old woman beat out two
>younger guys in the final
>three.
>
....much like the beam challenge, this combined balancing with endurance so that tips the scales in favor of the female...but, you also have to take into consideration that Jesus fell off his pole (pulled a Rudy) and Lex was so ill he should've been in bed with an IV drip.
>While you can make the argument
>in some of these circumstances
>that women won because they
>had to, I think overall
>we can see that in
>endurance challenges, women have the
>advantage.
...I disagree....I think that women have the advantage in balancing challenges, but I think its clear taht when it comes down to the final couple competitors the person with the advantage is ALWAYS the person who needs it the most (and remember that need is based on a subjective standard) Remember, Alicia and Lis stood on those logs for 10 hours, but when they realized that Keith and Tina were not going to throw in the towel they quickly gave up cause in their minds when push came to shove they didn't really NEED to win. As for who needs it the most this ep, I think Rob/Sean/Kathy will feel the most vulnerable. Sean will give up cause he's a loser as evidenced by his lack of competitive spirit throughout the show so far. kathy may be in it for the long haul, but she also might not feel as vulnerable as Rob, and taht might be enough to tip the scales in his favor. Also, some people (hi GT) have mentioned that Kathy practices some form of yoga and that helps her with her balance and will power. However, lets not forget that Rob is a hockey player, which is a sport that requires a high level of balance, equilibrium and determination. My money's on the hockey player over the latest new age fad yoga crap any day of the week.
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Ogachu 58 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 02:31 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Recap Episode" |
>
>All I'm saying is take your
>time with this pick, don't
>rush to pick Rob just
>cause it seems like the
>obvious pick...remember, this is the
>merge so new spoiling rules
>might very well apply. I was convinced that Rob was gone this week until I saw the description for the recap episode. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2561.shtml In particular this one part... "The show will also include never-before-seen footage including a bizarre Rotu activity involving the General's luxury item, a HUMOROUS (emphasis mine) outing with Boston Rob as he attempts to serve his Maraamu tribe, the first post-swap waterfall run of Rotu with the original Maraamu members (Rob, Sean and Vecepia) and Sean's attempt to keep the radio show alive at Rotu." Rob has definitely not been shown in a humorous light so far. Although, I've thought his attitude was pretty comical, it was not intended to be that way. Since the recap episode has been used before to "redeem" people prior to their being voted off,this made me think twice about Rob leaving this week and the possibility of him staying this week and being voted off the episode after the recap show. I don't know maybe I'm just reading too much into that one line. But, after reading Shakes' comments, too, I'm just not too sure about Rob this week.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 03:20 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Recap Episode" |
>I think showing Rob in a
>humorous light may be another
>indicator of his imminent boot.
> MB has a history
>of putting the bootee in
>a softer light right before
>they get the axe -
>especially if they have been
>somewhat of a villian. The recap episode gives MB a chance to redeem both Sean and Rob -- and it's safe to say that Sean would be the next target if Rob is taken out tonight -- without having to take time away from developing the continuing plots/storylines. If Rob is being booted out tonight, could MB really redeem him without making it way too obvious that he's the boot? There are so many juicy storylines to develop in this episode -- more than in the typical merge episodes, thanks to the uneven merge and the twist -- so he may not want to take away from the natural suspense that is building to add Rob's redemption. There's plenty of time to do that in the recap. I took Sean off my anti-boot list yesterday, because I was having some of the same reservations Shakes expressed. But I also think that old Rotu thinks that Rob and Sean are the biggest threats to their plans and want to get them off as quickly as possible, regardless of John's final 7 pledge. I can see Sean being quite angry as a member of the jury being forced to vote between Tammy, Zoe, Robert, or John for the million. Talk about the lesser of two evils, from his perspective!   S.O.B.
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Ogachu 58 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-11-02, 03:43 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Recap Episode" |
So, you're saying that Rob and Sean could be the next two voted off and then EMB would redeem them "after" their booted?
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PagongRatEater 12996 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 04:24 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Recap Episode" |
He could do it their boot episode too. I just don't remember getting to see any endearing scenes of Lex or Brandon in last year's recap episode since it was before they were booted. I don't see the potential villian of the show being cast in a positive light in the recap is they are yet to get booted.
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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 03:23 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Recap Episode" |
But what would be the point of "redeeming" Rob if he was already gone? I posted this in another thread, but the description for the recap episode really makes me think that Rob sticks around for a couple more weeks.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 03:42 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Recap Episode" |
>But what would be the point of "redeeming" Rob if he
>was already gone? For the sake of the non-spoiling viewers who have been getting a bad taste in their mouths over the past few episodes. My mother is a good example. She watches reality shows, but she has her limits on what she'll tolerate watching behavior-wise. Right now, she's quite disgusted with S4, and has already listed a number of factors that would keep her from watching S5: Babies in Thailand (sorry Frau, stole your TAR title). Redeeming some of the baddies, even after they're gone, during the recap episode can placate those viewers who think that the baddies are getting out of hand. Each Survivor, there are fewer water cooler conversations to follow. The viewer base is eroding, and MB is frantically trying to stem that tide. Hence, S4 was brought back to the beach. Showing that all of the cast members had redeeming qualities can keep them from losing viewers who don't want to watch the bad people. S.O.B.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 03:56 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Recap Episode" |
>But wouldn't the fact that the bad people are gone be
>incentive for those viewers to keep watching! "Yeah, they're
>goneTo keep watching S4, yes...assuming they can find redeeming qualities in anyone staying around. But will they have incentive to watch S5, knowing that "nice" people like Hunter and Gina don't even make the merge while "nasty" people move on? Possibly not.
(Note: These are the opinions of non-spoilers that I talk to.) Anyway, I don't want to take this good thresd off the topic that Shakes brought up, because I do think it's a valid point. But I'm just trying to say that there is enough treachery and drama (to quote Vee) to fill the regular episodes and further the storylines of those staying in the game, so I could see MB pushing out the redemptions to the recap episode so that they do not interfere with his storytelling and attempts to keep some degree of suspense in the booting. S.O.B.
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Ogachu 58 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 04:24 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Recap Episode" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-02 AT 04:33 PM (EST)> That tells me that
>this event is well in
>the past. Just my
>opinion, of course.
> As will everything else shown on the recap episode be from the past... Not trying to get off topic, but whether Rob is being "redeemed" in the recap episode two weeks from now, was one thing, in addition to Shakes' logic, that was hindering me from deciding whether Rob went tonight or not. In the past, the one redeemed was the next to go after the recap show. It may or may not be the case this time, that's what I'll have to decide. 
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 03:26 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Something to consider before voting for Rob " |
All of your points are great Shakes, and quite frankly you make me wish in some ways that I would not have voted for Rob. I think that one thing that most agree on is that this week almost has to be a Sean or a Rob boot, just simply depending on the Immunity Challenge winner. That being said, we have to go to who we think will win which you have stated your side on very well and very convincingly. I on the other hand am one of those people who would somewhat prefer to play the odds when it comes to this thing. We have 10 people, and I would venture to say that at least 4 of them(Vee, Sean, Rob, and Kathy) will put out a significant effort in this challenge, simply because they must each feel some amount of threat for being the boottee this week. I believe that it is likely that Tammy and Zoe will also give a strong effort, but more because of their personalities than because they feel that they need to. So at best Rob has about a 1 in 4 chance of winning immunity, though probably closer to 1 in 3 because of the fact that he should be able to outlast Vee at the least. Kathy should be strong in this challenge(if for no other reason than because she has been eating well), and Sean should be about as strong in this challenge as Rob is though as you point out, not likely to be as determined. So basically, I am taking my 2 in 3 odds that Rob will not beat one of these two in the immunity challenge and I am going with Rob this week. However, for those who have not voted, either of these two choices makes very good sense, and I would not at all be surprised with either of them.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 04:03 PM (EST)
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28. "agreed Doc" |
> I on the other
>hand am one of those
>people who would somewhat prefer
>to play the odds when
>it comes to this thing. ...I agree, its not a good place to be in when you are basing your boot pick on someone HAVING to win IC, especially when there are ten people competing. That alone is the reason I haven't made my pick yet. However, I do agree that when it comes down to it we really only have a few people competing for the IC so that does narrow the odds a little bit. As you said, it is probably at best a 1 in 3 chance of Rob winning IC, most like 1 in 5. But, we do have a couple of things that make it an easier assumption...that being the theory that the most needy contestant with the most will power will be right there till the end with a chance to win.....IMO, that leaves us with only two possible winners tonight, Rob and Kathy. And what do we already know about those two? For one, we have already seen Rob dominate a challenge that he absolutely had to win, and he did so by dragging three people behind him. It could be argued that subjectively Kathy HAD to win that challenge as well based on her pre-tc comments about how the vote might go, yet she proved to be completely incompetent yet again when it came time to compete. Also, as for who will feel more threatened.....we already know that Rob is the smartest person in the game when it comes to accurately assessing his place in the tribe and who might get votes...kathy on the other hand has shown us nothing as to her ability to figure these things out...therefore, we don't know for sure if Kathy will really be smart enough to understand the very real threat against her. She might, but we don't know for sure. Which is something we can say for certainty for Rob. This is not 100% evidence since it involves some speculation, but based on what we know and have seen already I think we can assume that Rob might feel more vulnerable than Kathy, even if Kathy SHOULD feel as vulnerable. And as we have seen in all the endurance challenges, that might be enough to get him the victory. Now, I'm not saying Im definitely voting for Sean....I still have no idea at this point and will probably wait till after ET tonight to see if there is some hint in their preview...all I am saying is that based on what we know there is no reason Rob should have 100 more votes on the vote thresd than Sean at this point...its really too close to call in my opinion.
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-11-02, 03:50 PM (EST)
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24. "The SurvivorNews Spoiler" |
shakes, interesting points. I'd like to bring up one additional point about Sean, however.SurvivorNews.net identified Sean as a contestant before anyone else. When Snewser (the Webmaster of SurvivorNews) made his original posting about Sean, he said that his information was that Sean made the jury. I have no idea about the source of Snewser's info. Nevertheless, he was correct that Sean was on the show, and Sean has gotten this far... if he doesn't get booted this episode, Snewser's info was 100% correct. This is only evidence if you believe it to be. I don't think Kathy is getting booted, and so I disbelieve ethanfan's info on EZ. However, I choose to believe Snewser's info. Anyway, I just wanted to bring it up again, since I haven't seen it mentioned here.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 03:52 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Something to consider before voting for Rob " |
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-02 AT 03:53 PM (EST)I've been thinking about this as well, particularly since LadyT found a fairly reliable indicator of Kathy's weight loss. Sean does fit all the theories with the possible exception of Maraarotu's System, though it would seem to fit that as well (would have been neat to see what a projected Sean boot would have done to the future projections, but oh well). Rob's boot would wreck Maraarotu's System, and yes even though I have been saying the system might not hold up, it is possible that Maraarotu actually found something. Anyway, every season there does seem to be a list that holds up, or holds up to a point. Why would CBS and MB have Varner's List out there in plain sight? Why not, it's a classic misdirectional technique right out of Poe's "Purloined Letter," hide it in plain sight. And they even drew attention to it early on with their pulling of the original, putting it even more in plain sight. Thanks, shakes. That was a pretty long ramble, but worth it. Cap'n Zoe Just YoHoHoee!
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MeToo 158 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-11-02, 04:09 PM (EST)
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29. "Rob, Sean and John's stories" |
I just skimmed quickly through the See-BS summaries. Interestingly, John is featured prominantly in all but EP 4 (switch). Rob gradually gains prominance while Sean gradually loses it. R/J/S related highlights: EP1: Rob meets Sarah and chases chickens
John gets frustrated with Kathy and builds a fire,
patting himself on the back for it.
Sean has religious experience EP2: Rob loses IC (fufaru challenge)
John sets table for the final 4 with pig trap
Sean complains about working and sits on the beach with Vee EP3: Rob becomes Robfather
John impales himself on a sea urchin and baits an eel
Sean confirms laziness streak, stops paddling
and "outwits" Hunter EP4: Switch
Rob (to Sean) calls John a "queeah", insults the women of
Rotu, Robert and says it's 2 degrees from hell
John sits out in IC (that's it)
Sean - in addition to his hate fest with Rob, has his
Roots/slavery speech with Gabe. EP5: Rob mostly strategizes attempting to win over Gabe to save
himself
John begin his combined delusions of grandeur and paranoia
and orchestrates Gabe's boot
Sean fades into the background with comment from Rob that
he's given up (but nevertheless is the one approached by
John) EP6: Rob contronts Zoe and John. Shows speed, strength, heart
and intelligence (for the first time) in challenges
John's delusions get worse
Was Sean already voted off? EP7: Rob - rises to the top only to be cut down at the knees?
John - is so far gone they have to remove him in a
straight jacket?
Sean - is finally voted out because we won't miss him
anyway? Of course, this whole analyses overlooks others who received a good deal of face time over the past few weeks such as Kathy and, believe it or not, Paschal and Neleh. Does any of this help or does it just make things worse?
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 04:52 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Something to consider before voting for Rob " |
Shakes,
your argument is good and would have me thinking hard, except for one thing:Like AyaK, I firmly believe Snewser's spoiler. The timing of the leak about Sean still being in the game comes from the portion of the season when family members either visit or record videos or chat on the internet. The fact that all these family members have to be contacted makes the possibility of a leak or a sighting extremely high. Such a leak doesn't come from an after-game comment, but from something that happened while the game was being filmed, so I put more weight on it. Therefore I believe it, coupled with the fact that the leak came before the contestants were even publicly revealed and was 100% accurate. I'm not 100% comfortable with Rob going this week; I just don't think we should look to Sean. And also we need to be thinking about WHAT could happen that would allow Sean to stay in the game other than an IC run. What kind of alliance could he get into that would let him make the Final 6? Seems like our choices are either that Rob-Sean-Vee actually get the votes to knock out the Rotu 4, which I very much doubt, OR Sean and Vee allign with the Rotu 4, either after a Rob boot they couldn't stop, or after selling out Rob tonight. John fears Rob and Rob only as a leadership competitor.
He's got to fear Neleh and Paschal as too sympathetic to the jury. Seems to me he WANTS to boot these two, and that's why he was so quick to tell the MaraRotu that they could ally with him to vote out the original Rotu. John has no fear that Sean would win this game no matter how far he got, right? Sean has shown NO political savvy either. Sean is a safe jerk to leave in the game, IMHO. Robfather OTOH--get him the hell out of the picture. The guy is some kind of Chessmaster! Well, in fact he's a Card Player.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 05:02 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Something to consider before voting for Rob " |
>John fears Rob and Rob only
>as a leadership competitor.
>He's got to fear Neleh and
>Paschal as too sympathetic to
>the jury. Seems to
>me he WANTS to boot
>these two, and that's why
>he was so quick to
>tell the MaraRotu that they
>could ally with him to
>vote out the original Rotu. True, but this is the last vote to get someone out before the jury. None of the Rotu four would want to go against Neleh or Paschal, but there's nothing wrong with having them on the jury. If handled properly (a la the booting of Lis and Rodger in S2), it can even be done without residual ill will that would affect a vote. Given the confrontations that have already taken place, Rob and Sean would be volatile, unpredictable forces on the jury. If Rob is voted out anywhere below 7th place, John has lost his vote, because Rob won't forget the broken promise. And both are legitimate IC threats, unlike Neleh and Paschal. In all of the previous Survivors, an immunity run affected the best-laid plans. If John's promise was kept and new 'Mu voted out first, then Rob would only have to win 3 IC's to disrupt the plan of the Rotu 4 -- and there's precedent. The odds of Neleh or Paschal running off a series of challenges is smaller.
S.O.B.
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kdzgon 60 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 10:27 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Something to consider before voting for Rob " |
>This may be already discussed in
>another thresd, but I think
>Vee has already aligned herself
>with the Rotu 4.
>What other choice does she
>have? .....Vee just needs to keep her
>mouth closed (she has and
>will continue to, I think),
>be nice to everyone, and
>she will easily make final
>6 or 5 or better.
>
>
>bebe But who goes on Survivor to finish 5th or 6th? Merely aligning with an already tight alliance is not good enough - I think V is keeping her mouth shut and ears open - if R or S manages to get N/P/K on line (not gonna happen, IMO), then she can vote openly. Otherwise, she will "go along" w/Rotu when necessary, while watching for any opening to change things. I believe people are underestimating Sean - I believe he can win immunity, but will not even attempt it unless/until it is clear he needs to. And despite all the hype, it is likely the ORs & NMs will reunite before the NMs side with the NRs (boring, so MB had to work hard to misdirect). While Sean may have been a first choice before, I agree with SD - that big ole target the Robfather painted on himself worked like a mechanical rabbit at a Florida dog track. BTW, Rob going tonight fits
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 05:02 PM (EST)
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36. "starting to waver yet again...." |
Well, the main reason I was even willing to entertain a possible Sean boot was cause it looked as of this morning that Snews was going to abandon their Sean spoiler...but, now to see that they are sticking with their Sean spoiler really throws my theory for a loop.What it really comes down to is two things....spoilers vs who will win Immunity. All things being equal and there being no spoilers either way between Rob and Sean I would definitely throw my 100 yahoo points at Sean this week. And that is where I thought we might be after Snews renigged on the Sean spoilers. However, now that Snews is sticking with the Sean spoilers I am forced to do a little further re-evaluation. As I stated elsewhere on this thresd I am very hesitant to pick a bootee based on someone NEEDING to win immunity. That thought is only heightened when the result of that person winning IC would lead to someone (Sean) getting voted out who had good and previously reliable spoilers pointing towards them staying. It is hard enough to not pick Rob based on the belief that he will win a 10 person IC without any evidence as to that win....it is even harder when it is clear that the results of that Rob victory would almost certainly lead to a Sean boot when there are some reliable spoilers that Sean stays. Well, it was fun while it lasted, but now that we've had a chance to hash all this out it looks like I might be leaning back towards my original pick, Rob. Although I am definitely going to wait till ET to see if they give anything away. As much as I want to pick Sean for the boot based on my theories in this thresd, I don't know if I can bring myself to ignore solid spoiling evidence in favor of a speculation theory as to who will win the IC. Like I said, if there was no spoiler evidence on either Sean or Rob I woudl definitely vote for Sean this week based on my IC theory...but, with all the Sean spoilers plus the Rob at LL spoilers it is very difficult to ignore that in favor of a spec theory. I see there are some people picking Sean in the vote thread and crediting my analysis....that's too bad cause I never said that even I was going to pick Sean, only that there is reason to pause and consider Sean which is something no one was doing up until this afternoon. So, I don't want the weekly Jim Jones award (see Krautboy's Robert boot pick from a ep 3 and be responsible for leading people down the wrong path...all I want is for people to take their time in making their picks and consider some alternative avenues. Now, if you'll excuse me i have to go make my pick for Rob on Survivor Island , unless I change my mind in the next five minutes and pick Sean.
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Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 05:23 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Just thinking; that's all....." |
Bozo, that's a mighty fine theory you've got going and I did enjoy reading it and working my way through all 25 replies. (Ya want me to stop NOW; don't ya? But you know I won't!) As is your usual slant, you are giving too little consideration to the "Standing on a Pole" talents of the female contestants in this important first Individual IC. Realizing some of your arguments are based on "need to win" I must counter with the simple fact that all TEN of them need to win because from this episode until the end the Immunity Necklace IS the goal!! Rob/Sean/Kathy need to win is a given. Some other good possibilities include: (1) ZOE needs to win to show John/Robert/Tammy that SHE (not John) can take their 4-person alliance to the end. And somehow I feel that ZOE will be standing on a pole after 10 hours looking bored and waiting for hell to freeze over or Rob/Sean/John to fall down; whichever happens first!! (2) NELEH as one (the youngest?) of 8 children in her Mormon family will probably stand on a pole for hours enjoying herself until someone clues her to come down (since nobody will vote against her anyway). (3) VEE needs to win just as much as Rob/Sean since she is smeared with the "oldMoomu" label which might be enough to cause her boot. Vee has done a good job of distancing herself from Rob/Sean and tried to fit in at Rotu. She has been waiting for a chance to succeed and this IC is her first real opportunity. If VEE ends up wearing the Immunity Necklace tonight --- that makes her a contender and drastically boosts her ability to join in whatever alliance she can. (4) KATHY surely needs to win and, btw, the form of centering your energy yoga-style she practices everyday is a heck of a lot older than "hockey". But I'm not going to hold my breathe for a IC win for Kathy. (SEE: No. 1 above) This is also the IC where Jiffy Probe comes around every hour offering food treats (Varner and his peanut butter...blech!) so as much as ROB needs to win --- from what I've seen his mouth is bigger than his endurance strength Dalton
PS. How come your Pointy-Head hasn't made a guest appearance on the BABY IV? Too big a "realitytvstar" to visit your old friends??
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 06:04 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Just thinking; that's all....." |
Agreed Dalton--Zoe is formidable threat--wish we knew the FORM of the endurance, whether of not it involves breath-holding, balance, or just endurance alone. Both Neleh and Zoe are scuba-diving trained. There's a big difference between sports that require kinetic power--like running and kicking and boxing and playing hockey--and the ability to "hold still" and stick with it. Hey, women go through labor for 24 hours or more on occasion--must be some kind of genetic endurance quality built in... Also, for those of you who haven't yet crossed the Great Divide of 40--this is a True Fact: time speeds up as you get older.
10 hours on a pole is a LONG time for a young person. The older you get, the more you could just get lost in thought for that amount of time, and then go, huh, is it dark already? Teresa, Tina, Keith, MamaKim--endurance champs over 40...
Jeff Varner--said he would NEVER have had the patience to stand there the whole time so he figured he'd jump off early, despite his martial arts training. Does anyone think Sean and Rob are PATIENT? Lazy does not equal patient. Lazy people will want to dismount and eat lunch, and hope that guile and strategy will save the day. And Dawg, sure I agree about the target on Rob's back from being too open. He could do it when he had control of numbers. I figure he knows he has little to lose after the swap as he already had the target painted on him as a strong athletic minority alliance leader, and so he decided to just say what was on his mind, and hope he picked up some disgruntled against John votes... My bad, not to agree with you, because I agree. But then I voted for Rob as bootee.
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MeToo 158 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-02, 07:49 PM (EST)
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44. "Last minute argument that it IS Rob" |
Okay, so I've already voted Sean based on what's been said on this thread BUT Not one single survivor spotting in airports this week? Could that be because the bootee drove in from someplace nearby such as... Boston? Too late for me.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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