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"SeeBS EYEmail 4/8/02"
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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"

04-08-02, 10:42 AM (EST)
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"SeeBS EYEmail 4/8/02"
Quick--before someone wets their pants in anticipation! Here it is, today's BS:

Gina Gone!

A game Gina Crews couldn't overcome tribal ties, as the three transplanted members of Rotu voted to oust her. Gina's ejection shrunk Maraamu to three members and Thursday's merge of the tribes comes none too soon for the survivors. The original Rotu enters the merge with a 7-3 advantage, but that doesn't prevent old rivalries from surfacing.

SURVIVOR Profile: Tammy Leitner , 29, is a crime writer from Mesa, AZ, who is currently writing a book about a serial rapist who eluded the law for 16 years. A graduate of UCLA, with a master's from Boston University, she has won numerous awards for her reporting. Tammy's into fitness - with running, biking, lifting weights and kickboxing among her favorites - and the two males in her life - Mike, her fiancé, and Bacchus, her 140 pound Newfoundland. Her luxury item is a picture of the two.

Previous Profiles:

2/19 Gabriel Cade
2/25 Patricia Jackson
3/4 Sean Rector
3/11 Neleh Dennis
3/18 Sarah Jones
3/25 Rob Mariano
4/1 Robert DeCanio

Previous Bootees:

2/28 Peter Harkey
3/7 Patricia Jackson
3/13 Hunter Ellis
3/20 Sarah Jones
3/28 Gabriel Cade
4/4 Gina Crews

Hopefully, someone will tell me that a previous profilee is sure to be the next to go--could it be anyone BUT Rob?

GT

Society attacks early when the individual is helpless.B.F.Skinner

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 sleeeve? A request George Tirebiter 04-08-02 1
   Significance of profiles weltek 04-08-02 2
       Disagree FesterFan1 04-08-02 4
           Disagree with your disagree munson 04-08-02 6
               RE: Disagree with your disagree FesterFan1 04-08-02 8
                   RE: Disagree with your disagree Kokoro 04-08-02 10
               Recap on April 24th sweetpea 04-08-02 12
                   RE: Recap on April 24th FesterFan1 04-09-02 16
   I'm not sleeeve, but... GuessItRains 04-08-02 3
 RE: SeeBS EYEmail 4/8/02 SurvivinDawg 04-08-02 5
 My pants are wet!!! munson 04-08-02 7
   RE: My pants are wet!!! George Tirebiter 04-08-02 9
       RE: My pants are wet!!! In The Woods 04-08-02 11
 RE: SeeBS EYEmail 4/8/02 dabo 04-09-02 13
   RE: SeeBS EYEmail 4/8/02 Bebo 04-09-02 14
       RE: SeeBS EYEmail 4/8/02 dabo 04-09-02 15
       Sean and Kathy's chances at IC dangerkitty 04-09-02 17

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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 11:00 AM (EST)
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1. "sleeeve? A request"
LAST EDITED ON 04-08-02 AT 11:02 AM (EST)

Since you seem to have a good sense of the significance of the order of the profiles, could you (or ANYONE similarly-inclined) rehash what these last profiles mean? People have indicated that three contestants will not be profiled, and that has happened; are the remaining profiles likely to be in REVERSE order (or thereabouts) of how far they go in the game, to avoid profiling someone who's already been booted? They're not going to go back and profile Peter, Hunter, or Gina, now that they're dead issues--and of the profiles so far, FIVE are still in it: Sean, Neleh, Rob, Robert, and now Tammy.

Am I correct in assuming one of those first four profilees are likely to be the one to go this week? It seems to me that Sean and Rob are the ones who've been complete, as far as storyline goes--and that puts Rob squarely at the top of the list. Yes?


GT

Duh. Gina, Tammy--whatever. . .

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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 11:25 AM (EST)
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2. "Significance of profiles"
Going on the basis of last season's S3, no survivor has ever been profiled AFTER their boot, and we don't see that happening for S4. The number of episodes left indicates that all remaining players who HAVE NOT YET been profiled, will be profiled by the week of the final episode.

I don't believe their is any "order" of those profiled who haven't yet departed, other than the fact that those profiled are likely to be this weeks only bootee candidates.

So for this week, Neleh, Rob, Robert, Sean, and Tammy are our candidates for the boot.

Does that sum it up?

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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 12:07 PM (EST)
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4. "Disagree"
Going on the basis of last season's S3, no survivor has ever been profiled AFTER their boot

This is true. None of the profilees were profiled after their boot. Linda, the closest, was profiled the week of her boot. Everyone else had at least a week to live after their profile.

The number of episodes left indicates that all remaining players who HAVE NOT YET been profiled, will be profiled by the week of the final episode.

This is not true based on last year's schedule. For S4, they managed to squeeze 2 profiles in before E1, but for S3 there was only 1 profile before E1. So S4 is one profile ahead of last season's pace. For S3, 11 of 16 were profiled, and none were profiled after E10. If this schedule holds for S4, then there will be 1 more person not profiled, bringing the total number of profilees to 12. To illustrate (eliminated players in red):

Gabe pre-E1
Patricia pre-E1

Sean pre-E2
Neleh pre-E3
Sarah pre-E4
Rob pre-E5
Robert pre-E6
Tammy pre-E7

There have now been 8 people profiled, and only 4 more weeks for profiles. The re-crap ep. is not in it's usual place this season, but unless there is some programming glitch that bumps Survivor for a week, it will have to be somewhere (probably after E8) in order to reach the Final 4 mega-super extravaganza episode for Sunday, May 26. SO, there are 4 more profiles coming and 5 players still alive to be profiled (Zoe, John, Paschal, Kathy, and Vee).

It is most likely that this week's boot will be the final non-profilee, as happened last season when Clarence, the S3 Survivor who lasted longest sans profile, got the axe in E7.


So for this week, Neleh, Rob, Robert, Sean, and Tammy are our candidates for the boot.

I would counter that this week's candidates are Kathy and John based on this logic.

Fester

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 01:04 PM (EST)
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6. "Disagree with your disagree"
Finale is set for May 19 opposite the last episode of the X-files according to Zap2it...

http://tv.zap2it.com/news/tvnewsdaily.html?23867

Therefore, no room for recap episode. As was pointed out in last week's EYEmail thread, the number of castaways yet to be profiled (5) = number of weeks (two episodes during the last week) left in S4 (5).

Episode Schedule
Episode 8: EYEmail on April 15, air date April 18
Episode 9: EYEmail on April 22, air date April 25
Episode 10: EYEmail on April 29, air date May 2
Episode 11: EYEmail on May 6, air date May 9
Episode 12: EYEmail on May 13, air date May 16
Episode 13: air date May 19

Not yet profiled: Kathy, John, Paschal, Vee, Zoe

It seems logical, at least to me, that all remaining castaways will be profiled before being booted.

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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 01:39 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Disagree with your disagree"
Actually the earlier finale date probably enhances my prior post. Remember, I'm basing the projection on last year's precedent. If there is one fewer week, it makes sense that they started the profiling earlier to fit another one in before the premiere of S4.

Since there won't be a recap, they are on pace to have 11 profiles done just prior to E10, which would mirror the profiling for S3.

This doesn't mean that there won't be profiles beyond E10, just that if one were to use S3 as a point of comparison, they should still look for someone who has yet to be profiled to be this week's boot. My goof on the finale date doesn't change that, but in fact reinforces it.

What it does mean is that there are *potentially* only 3 profiles left and 5 remaining players without a profile, which would mean someone on the jury *potentially* would go profile-less.

Fester

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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 02:41 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Disagree with your disagree"
I love Fester!

Where were you last week when I was trying to argue this lol
Anyway, while I ~do~ think that all jury members will be profiled, I also think that the first merge boot could easily go without a profile.

Then again if Rob goes then that's alright too - it'll make
spoiling the next couple of weeks based on the profiles that much easier.

----------------------------------------
Now let us never speak of S3 again.

Gabriel: "Alright, John go straight! Straight!" - Um, Gabe?


Stop Discrimination Now

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sweetpea 223 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 08:29 PM (EST)
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12. "Recap on April 24th"
I posted in a seperate thread-there actually will be a recap show on Wednesday, April 24th. So how does this change the Eyemail theory?
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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04-09-02, 09:38 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Recap on April 24th"
Since the recap ep and E9 will be on back to back nights, there will likely still only be 1 Eyemail for the week. IMHO, I don't think this changes the theory at all.

Fester

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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 11:30 AM (EST)
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3. "I'm not sleeeve, but..."
GT (and all others with an interest in this topic), here is the list from S3. I'm putting S4 side by side for comparison purposes.

Profiled(S3) Booted(S3) Profiled(S4) Booted(S4)

E0 Ethan Preview Ep Gabe No Ep
E1 Lindsey Diane Patricia Peter
E2 Tom Jessie Sean Patricia
E3 Linda Carl Neleh Hunter
E4 Kelly Linda Sarah Sarah
E5 Frank Silas Rob Gabe
E6 Kim P. Lindsey Robert Gina
E7 Brandon Clarence Tammy ???
ER Teresa Recrap Ep
E8 Lex Kelly
E9 Kim J. Brandon

On S3, after E9 all 7 remaining castaways had been profiled and so the profiles stopped. I suppose the same could happen here. However, all jurors were profiled at some point in S3 but Clarence was not profiled.

Make of all this what you will.

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 12:09 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: SeeBS EYEmail 4/8/02"
As ever, thanks for posting this, GT!!!

Also, some posted under the previous (4/1/02) thread about this week's results, and my gratitude extends to them also.

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 01:23 PM (EST)
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7. "My pants are wet!!!"
GT,

Guess I'm the one you called out for my supreme act of impatience. Of course, no disrespect intended. It's just that... I love the EYEmail. I live for the EYEmail. It's what gets me into the office every Monday morning! I was just so shocked to NOT see John or Kathy profiled, I prematurely posted!

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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 02:17 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: My pants are wet!!!"
LMAO--yes, munson, you da man. As for your prematurity difficulties, I hear they have medications for that now.

And Fester hasn't helped me at all. . . now I can't decide if Kathy will indeed go--as "spoiled"--or if it will be the previously-profiled Robfaddah. So many who deserve the boot. . .

GT

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In The Woods 55 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-02, 04:08 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: My pants are wet!!!"
GT, maybe it would help if you went back and re-read the "for all you skeptics out there" thread. (Big hand to forhead). Thanks for posting the eyemails. I guess I am kind of biting into the Gina spoiler that she thought Rob was a pretty good guy, and she got to know him at Loser Lodge. If Kathy had been profiled, I'd probably be leaning her way a little more.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-09-02, 01:48 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: SeeBS EYEmail 4/8/02"
Just some observations:

1. Robert and Tammy really haven't had much face-time; Sean, Neleh and Rob have.
2. Neleh as a boot #7 doesn't make sense to me unless either A) Kathy wins immunity (and New Rotu holds together per John's plan, which I consider BS), or B) Kathy forms the unlikely alliance with someone putting Neleh and Paschal on the chopping block.
3. That leaves Rob and Sean, who would both sensibly be targets anyway as the individual challenges commence, since either could present the threat of running a Wigglesworth/Donaldson IC string.
3-b. Sean totally sucks in the water, so if a water challenge presents itself for the next IC he will probably lose (unless we go back to the holding-your-breath challenge from S1).

Cap'n Zoe Just YoHoHoee!

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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04-09-02, 07:22 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: SeeBS EYEmail 4/8/02"
>so if a water
>challenge presents itself for the
>next IC he will probably
>lose (unless we go back
>to the holding-your-breath challenge from
>S1).

I'd pick him to lose that one, as well. On last night's Fear Factor, the final stunt required contestants to hold their breath in a tube of water. Only one of them lasted past 30 seconds. One of the guys admitted to a fear of the water, and he didn't even stay under 5 seconds -- he mistimed his breath and panicked. Since Sean dislikes the water, I don't think he'd do well in that at all, especially up against ultra-competitive guys like Rob and John.


S.O.B.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-09-02, 09:30 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: SeeBS EYEmail 4/8/02"
You may be right about Sean, though Gervase did well in the breath-holding part of that IC in S1. Gervase lost on the second part of that challenge, which was an underwater race releasing balloons from a ladder fixed to the bottom, even though the ladder, if used properly, actually would allow a poor swimmer to compensate for poor swimming ability. We haven't seen this particular challenge repeated.

Cap'n Zoe Just YoHoHoee!

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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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04-09-02, 09:47 AM (EST)
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17. "Sean and Kathy's chances at IC"
We've already seen Sean underwater, during the "sunken boat" challenge. He panicked, IMO - got down there but didn't managed to get even one rock out of the boat. Contrast that to Hunter and Gabe, who did the best (fittest), and also John did pretty well, I think.

Here's a thought:

It's a "true lie" that Kathy is to be the target at TC - true, but because she wins immunity, they can't vote for her - and she can't know for sure if they were or weren't. UNLESS they vote for Paschal or Neleh. That's very risky - the other would likely turn against the old Rotu (if they hadn't already), and now it's 5-4 against John's gang. So they have to target R/S/V -and of course Rob is choice #1. This could even be the fight that John and Rob have - it's after IC and Kathy has won, so things have heated up.

How could Kathy win IC? This came to me through all the posts about the possible underwater breath holding challenge. We saw Kathy doing chi kung last week, and talking about how it's good for the breath. I practice chi kung, and yoga too (teach both, as well). So I believe that Kathy would indeed have better than average breath control and capacity. We already have seen Peter talk about his yoga breath helping start the fire - it did. Now this - it may help Kathy win IC (although not keep her from getting booted later, just as Peter still got booted).

**Disclaimer - I never talk about my "holes" during yoga class. )

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