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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-05-02, 10:13 AM (EST) "Handicapping E7" I think we have enough information already to start handicapping who will be voted off in E7. The two primary suspects seem to be Kathy or Rob. Kathy-- We know there will be a merge. We can be pretty sure if John's promise about the "final 7" is upheld, Kathy would be the one to go because everyone likes Neleh and Pascal better than Kathy. There have also been reports that there were early rumors about her going in E7. She has always annoyed people, so it might make sense to get rid of her. However, Rob is a much bigger threat. Only if John really feels bound by his promise and convinces the rest of his alliance can I see this really happening. Rob-- Logic would dictate that he is obviously the biggest threat and needs to go. Gina's Early Show appearence also suggests a Rob boot (says he is nice outside the game--etc.). John did promise him, but the rest of his group would be crazy to let John's promise bind them. They should regroup with old Rotu people. They are more trustworthy and easier to get along with. The big questions thus are--how serious was John in his promise and can John deliver on his promise even if he wants to. Other possibilities: John-- His insistence on honesty may be seen as a threat to the rest of his alliance members. He specifically contradicted Zoe (although tried to cover by saying maybe she did not see it as an alliance--yeah right). He is giving away too much strategy and making too many promises. It may be time to make a new alliance and eliminate Mr. Honesty. Immunity Factor-- Of course, the targeted person is sometimes saved by immunity. If Kathy otherwise would have been the target but get immunity, most likely Pascal would go (people tend to vote off the old man (think Roger) before the young woman (think Liz)). If Rob otherwise would have been the target but gets immunity, most likely Sean (Vee seems clearly better liked than Sean). UTR-- Robert, Zoe and Tammy (and Neleh and Vee most likely)   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Handicapping E7 JohnMc 04-05-02 1    Issues for Rotu 4 cowboyroo 04-05-02 2  Flip a Coin Krautboy 04-06-02 3    RE: Flip a Coin Naked 04-09-02 4        RE: Flip a Coin In The Woods 04-09-02 5            Spoiling Rob jkokoj 04-09-02 6  The case for John FesterFan1 04-09-02 7    RE: The case for John MeToo 04-09-02 8        RE: The case for John drich61 04-09-02 9    RE: The case for John MikeD 04-09-02 10

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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 04-05-02, 11:18 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Handicapping E7" Good analysis, zzz. Let me add my thoughts: Rob There is a great post re: Gina's early show appearance that also leads me to say Rob goes next. He made a VERY strong showing in the challenges last night. He pulled his weight and most everyone else in Rotu through the RC only to have D&D rowing the boat behind two girls. (Didn't you just feel good for Moomoo at that moment!) And he provided some strong leadership in the maze. He has STRONG potential to pull off an immunity win IF it is physically based. Kathy Annoying, yes; a threat, no way. A smart player (which, as Gina stated, Rob is not) would keep her around. Even Jerri was annoying but she made it to F7. I say Kathy stays around at least that long (though personally I see her winning by the Lex's gut theory). John If John holds true to his word (and why would anyone is Survivor do that?), then the NR will take out NM w/a 7-3 vote. John, being a smarter player than Rob, knows that he is a threat in terms of challenges as well as taking him out (in TC, that is, not on a date). John's best move is to get OR back together (the love tribe minus Gabe) and finish the Pagong show. Immunity Rob and Sean are the biggest immunity threats here. Physically, they are the strongest in the merged tribe. Whoever loses immunity goes. If someone besides them wins immunity, I say Rob is first to go.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-05-02, 11:17 PM (EST) 2. "Issues for Rotu 4" The Rotu 4 have issues that other alliances in the past didn't have. Numberswise, they are down 6-4, so the new Maraamu and old Maraamu have 2 weeks to figure out what is going on and join together against the Rotu 4. Whichever team is the odd team out should KNOW that once the other 3 are gone, they're next. Not to hard to figure that one out. The only saving grace for the Rotu 4 is that N/P/K may think they have alliances unfractured from prior to the tribal shuffle, which with the way John is acting may not be so far from the truth given the circumstances. Tammy didn't seem happy about request to throw challenge. Zoe definitely wasn't happy that John admitted to Rob right out that the 4 of them have an alliance. The big key for the Rotu 4 to take this thing is whether or not John can keep his big mouth shut when K/N/P come over. If he tells them that the other 4 Rotu have aligned, their plan is history which is probably going to be the case.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 04-06-02, 02:39 AM (EST) 3. "Flip a Coin" Nice post ZZZ, good summary and analysis of where we are at this point in the spoiling. Seems like we've already reached a spoiling stalemate for the week...both Rob and Kathy have supporting spoilers, and logical scenarios that support their boot. At this point I'll be making my vote using the "Flip a Coin Theory". I feel like this weeks spoiler's have already been exhausted. The only thing we can hope for is some definative evidence as to who wins immunity... Krautboy   Top

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 04-09-02, 03:27 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Flip a Coin" Krautboy, I'm with you on this one. I'm leaning on Kathy as my choice though because of the editing of the characters. Something is telling me that Rob's story isn't quite finnished yet...   Top

In The Woods 55 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 04-09-02, 09:33 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Flip a Coin" The one thing that bothered me was the Gina spoiler about Rob, thinking that the only time they would see each other after the game was loser lodge. I'm starting to think there could have been other times. Possibly on the way home, or even one of them calling the other since they were oringinal tribe mates to talk about the game. Jiffy and MB, both very good smoke blowers have stated there was a villian in the game. To me its obviously the Robfather. To make statements like that, I would think he would stay longer in the game. He is also an immunity threat, as is Sean. Kathy is bossy and annoying. She just might say enough annoying things to the Rob faction and the John faction to have themn bond together to give her the heave-ho. I also think that John is a high probability boot. K/N/and P, are going to find out what happened to Gabe, and that John was behind it. By somehow getting those three with Rob and Sean, John, who is a threat could possibly get voted off. Finally, I guess if the Gina spoiler is based on the loser lodge, Rob would be the candidate. It would give her more time to get to know him, but I just think there are some post survivor times that they could have talked. Just some thoughts.   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 04-09-02, 10:23 AM (EST) 6. "Spoiling Rob" Last week we were able to confirm that Rob was at an in-line hockey tourny. Is there a schedule out there for any games this week? If so where are they and is there anyone on these boards near the location that can find out if Rob is around. If there are no games this week my "gut" tells me to pick Rob. But then again there is that pesky Cruise Ship spoiler regarding John and Tammy.   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-09-02, 03:41 PM (EST) 7. "The case for John" The merge is a certainty because they’ve been told that the merge will occur on schedule. This is probably due to MB’s dispute with land owners of one of the campsites. With full knowledge of the upcoming merge, the 2 Rotu camps (esp. Rob & John) have had time to plan accordingly. John has promised Rob, Sean and Vee that after the merge the 3 old Rotu (Kathy, Neleh, and Paschal) will be the first to go. However, Rob has said on more than one occasion that he will get John the first chance he gets. Rob has no intention of honoring this agreement, regardless of whether John plans to uphold his end of the bargain. Rob will court Kathy and tell her about John’s plan to boot those 3 first. John does not trust Rob, and has to fear that if they stick to the agreement and vote out a New Mu at the first merged TC, the other 2 (likely Neleh & Paschal) will be quick to join up with R/S/V for self-preservation. He has to also know the bond that Paschal had with Gabe, and how much that could potentially affect Pappy's feelings toward his old mates. And where Paschal goes, Neleh goes. This combination makes it very tricky for John to be true to his word. Kathy being a confrontational person by nature, will approach some or all of the Rotu 4 and want the scoop. The Rotu 4 have only numbers and a little history together with the New Mus in their favor. They are, to a one, horrible liars (esp. Zoe), and the history is strained already because of the New Mus love of Gabe. Kathy will certainly want to know what was up with his boot. Rotu will lie to her, and lie badly. They may claim that Rob is next, and he’s just trying to save his skin. Kathy won’t buy it. The promo of her in the water saying “Zoe’s lying to me—they’re all lying to me”, IMO, is a reference to the Rotu 4 and the Rotu 4 only. When John sees that his plan has gone to hell in a hand basket, he will confront Rob and Sean for stabbing him in the back. At this point, all bets are off in John’s mind, whether he ever intended to honor the agreement with Rob or not. It’s now “on” as Rob says. Kathy will not trust Rob, but neither can she trust her old tribe mates, who have the numerical advantage. In her mind, it will be better to level the playing field, than to trust the Rotu 4, and get burned. Then she will have to convince Neleh & Paschal that it is in their best interests too. This is the tricky part. How Pappy and Neleh vote will decide who goes home. Surely Gina has told them of Rob’s two-faced politicking. But I’m guessing that Pappy’s gonna be none too pleased with John, et al. regarding their treatment of his Golden Boy. So which way do they vote? Here’s where the spoilers come in. We have conflicting Kathy spoilers. One says she goes in E7, and the other says she loses 30 lbs. We also have conflicting Rob spoilers. One is Gina’s “slip” in her Early Show interview, and the other is his Eyemail profile. We only have one spoiler that I’m aware of regarding John, and that one (specious as it may be) has him going in E7. I’m personally placing more stock in the Kathy weight loss rumor than the “guy who knows a guy” rumor of her E7 boot. And the John “spoiler” is not as important to me as the lack of a spoiler that points to him staying. As for Rob, after further review, I don’t think Gina’s comment about Rob being a "nice guy" was referring to time spent with him at the Loser Lodge. Rather I think it was her being a gracious loser and not wanting to appear negative on national TV. What I do put stock in, is the fact that Rob has already had an Eyemail profile, whereas Kathy and John have not. I’m choosing to believe that the Eyemail pattern will mirror S3, and only 11 of the 16 will get profiles. 3 of the bootees did not get profiles (Hunter, Gina, and Peter), which means that 2 of the 5 remaining profile-less players (Kathy, John, Zoe, Paschal, and Vee) will not get one. I think the Survivors who have been profiled (Tammy, Robert, Neleh, Sean and Rob) are safe this week because I find it unlikely that 4 of 11 profiles would be wasted on non-jury members when only 2 of 11 S3 non-jury Survivors got profiles. In S3 the player lasting longest without a profile was Clarence, and he got his in—you guessed it—E7. Eyemail + Weight loss = Bye, bye Johnny Pots and Pans. Fester   Top

MeToo 158 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-09-02, 05:16 PM (EST) 8. "RE: The case for John" Fester, This is one of the best analyses so far. I have one question. What is your opinion if John gets immunity? MeToo   Top

drich61 558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-09-02, 05:52 PM (EST) 9. "RE: The case for John" >Fester, > >This is one of the best >analyses so far. I >have one question. What is >your opinion if John gets >immunity? > >MeToo That would be two time liar Zoe, it is very bad to climb out from her UTR rock. To be branded a liar by two of the three tribal leaders, Rob and Kathy.   Top

MikeD 344 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-09-02, 06:00 PM (EST) 10. "RE: The case for John" This makes perfect sense - good analysis dude!!!   Top

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