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"What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 03:25 PM (EST)
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"What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
John has made a big deal about honesty and ethics going back to his application video plan to "play the game in the light and not the darkness." ...and last night he claimed: 1) he'll never lie in this show, 2) he made a pact to the end with Robert, Tammy, and Zoe.

Therefore, the natural question is, what is his plan for the merge? ...when the Rotu Orphans come back from Maraamu (plus or minus Gina), what's he planning to do with them?

Is he going to be honest with them and tell them that yes, he has formed an alliance of Four to the end, and they aren't part of it? ...while there are still likely THREE other Maraamu free agents in the Merged tribe? If so, he might as well just sign his own name on those vote cards and pass them out before they leave for Tribal Council.

Is he going to violate his ethics and lie to them? ...and even if he does, doesn't he know realize that either Sean or Rob will still likely tell the Rotu Orphans of John's Alliance Of Four plans?

The bottom line is I just don't see how this guy is going to get anywhere with his Alliance of Four (maybe this self-proclaimed "Biggest Survivor fan" didn't realize that the only reason S1's RICHARD was able to work with his own Alliance Of Four was because of Sean's predictable alphabet voting system.)

John is either going to have to bring in a fifth member if he has any hopes of winning this game... Sean and Rob don't have much going for them in the smarts department, but they are at least both able to count to 5.

-SB

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... George Tirebiter 03-29-02 1
 RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... PepeLePew13 03-29-02 2
   RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... ulalame 03-29-02 5
 RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... Mitrelleum 03-29-02 3
   RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... pisspoorprotoplasm 03-29-02 4
       RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... managerr 03-29-02 6
 RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... JohnMc 03-29-02 7
   RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... cowboyroo 03-29-02 8
       RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... pisspoorprotoplasm 03-30-02 17
 John's Post Merge Plan (at least as... SurvivorBlows 03-29-02 9
 RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... GuessItRains 03-29-02 10
 A thought idiotcowboy 03-30-02 11
 Strategies Revealed Don't Succeed Krautboy 03-30-02 12
   RE: Strategies Revealed Don't Succe... Outfrontgirl 03-30-02 13
       RE: Strategies Revealed Don't Succe... Krautboy 03-30-02 14
           RE: Strategies Revealed Don't Succe... Outfrontgirl 03-30-02 15
               RE: Strategies Revealed Don't Succe... Krautboy 03-30-02 16
                   RE: Strategies Revealed Don't Succe... In The Woods 04-01-02 27
               Sound bites Bebo 04-01-02 29
 Why John's plan will work JeffGator 03-31-02 18
 Was Vee the linchpin? mavsfan 04-01-02 19
   RE: Was Vee the linchpin? JeffGator 04-01-02 20
       RE: Was Vee the linchpin? mavsfan 04-01-02 21
           RE: Was Vee the linchpin? Mitrelleum 04-01-02 22
           RE: Was Vee the linchpin? JeffGator 04-01-02 23
           RE: Was Vee the linchpin? SurvivinDawg 04-01-02 24
           RE: Was Vee the linchpin? zzz 04-01-02 25
               RE: Was Vee the linchpin? dabo 04-01-02 26
                   RE: Was Vee the linchpin? In The Woods 04-01-02 28
                   RE: Was Vee the linchpin? gemstone 04-01-02 30
                       RE: Was Vee the linchpin? dabo 04-02-02 32
 RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or w... Loree 04-02-02 31

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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 03:31 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
You're right, Webby. He seems to have forgotten a lot of what he thought/claimed he knew. . .

I think when the old Rotu come back--no, as soon as they learn Gabe is the one booted--they will realize they're not safe by virtue of where they started. If a Rotu was given the heave-ho before those other slackers (and you KNOW Gina's filled them in on this) then they know it's every man for himself. They MUST look elsewhere for their own protection.

Must agree with Scribe--these men are going to do each other in until the women have a clear shot at the end game. . .

GT

Choose your friends carefully.-Y. Arafat

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 03:32 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
What I'm intrigued about is where Vecepia fits into this -- does she have any sort of bond at all with John or one of the other Rotus? Could she be open to being a fifth person if Rob/Sean continue to make public spectacles of themselves, at least that's what we're being told by the editing?

What about one of Neleh/Pappy/Kathy being aligned with John when they merge? I suspect Kathy has a stronger bond with John than most people might think -- the peeing on wound is one thing but also Kathy seemed to talk confidently about Rotu throwing the IC in ep4 as if she might have discussed this possibility with John, let's say.

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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 04:02 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
I think that this time, the "twist" will work to break up any loyalty the remaining Rotus have for their former members. If you think about it, time-wise, if the merge happens when there are 10 remaining as usual, they will have spent equal amounts of time (9 days + 9 days) with both the old and new formations of the tribes. Combine that with bad feelings that the old Rotus may harbor from the raid, and bad feelings the newMooMoos may have re. Gabe's boot, and I don't think they are going to have that much loyalty to each other after the merge.

I too find it interesting to think about there being three smaller "alliances" going into the merge. If the merge happens with Neleh/Pascal and Kathy left in MooMoo, and Rob/Vee/Sean left in Rotu along with the 4 person alliance with John/Tammy/Robert/Zoe, I could see a temporary alliance between the Judge's group and Robfather et. al. to level the playing field, taking John's group down to three too, in the first TC after the merge. Then we'd have a 3-3-3 situation, which could prove to be very entertaining.

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Mitrelleum 257 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 03:32 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
I agree 100%. John's plan is going to blow up in his face, which we've seen alot of. I guess he didn't consider how an early switch might bite him in the a$$ later.
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pisspoorprotoplasm 19 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 03:56 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
Isn't Episode 7 entitled "True Lies"?

Since titles this season seem to be quite literal, don't you think it may portend John's demise? I mean, he has made MULTIPLE promises to many people, and it wouldn't take much to trip him up and catch him in a lie. Remember, Tammy threatened to "kick John's ass" if he was playing her.

And wouldn't Rob be a perfect little schemer for initiating this?

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managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 04:51 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
John has already backed himself into a corner. He's already made too many promises that he can't keep. The way I see it, in order for him to win he is going to have to lie/backstab someone. Or everyone will get sick of him of making promises and boot him along the way.

If you want to play the game with "integrity" and be totally honest with everyone, you need to play the game like Ethan did. Try and play it like Lex and have the leadership role and be 100% honest--you're going to end up losing or being a hypocrite.

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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 05:14 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-02 AT 05:15 PM (EST)

<<Sean and Rob don't have much going for them in the smarts department, but they are at least both able to count to 5.>>

I bet they can even count to 20... maybe even 21...
(Rob probably only 20 1/2...)

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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 05:42 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
I think there is a lot of truth in all these summaries, but what we saw last night was Rob thinking he had a brainstorm for survival that never came to pass. They went along and voted Gabriel. John was petrified of getting booted out. Maybe John "sold his soul to the devil" to further himself in the game and has aligned now with the old Mamaarus to have them not vote against him with Gabe.

This is going WAY out on a limb, but possibly the definitiong of "True Lies" is that John tells his old Rotu alliance he is voting against Rob, when in effect he is but Rob isn't Rob, Rob is Robert.

Kind of like when I was a kid and didn't want to get myself in trouble by telling the whole truth, so I'd paint the truth in a way that it was in actuality a lie. By telling his old Rotu clan he is voting against Rob, voting for Robert is not really that far of a stretch...Something went on before TC last night that we've been left in the dark about.

People think Rob is not playing the game, but I believe he is, but manipulating things which will come back to haunt him eventually.

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pisspoorprotoplasm 19 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-02, 12:55 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
"...but what we saw last night was Rob thinking he had a brainstorm for survival that never came to pass."

Maybe Rob does have a plan, and it involves giving John just enough rope to hang himself. John has promised a lot of things to everybody, and if Rob can instill some doubt into old Rotu, he may have a chance. After all, didn't John get rid of Gabe? What's to stop him from going on a Lex witch hunt again?

It seems to me that Rob is building trust with John and will take advantage of John's promises. Rob appears to be perfectly happy being the conniving villain on this show. Why else would MB get the rights to the Godfather logo?

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 06:03 PM (EST)
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9. "John's Post Merge Plan (at least as told to Rob)"
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-02 AT 06:17 PM (EST)


Apparently there's a Survivor Insider (well, what used to be called Survivor Insider) clip from this week in which Rob is in confessional saying that John also approached him (and not just Sean) detailing the plan to vote out Gabe.

Apparently John told Rob that Rob is guarenteed a place on the jury because John's plan is to win the Ep6 IC, then, after the merge, vote out all the remaining Rotu (including Pappy, Sweetpea, and LoudMouth) and then vote out Rotu's threee remaining refugees (he didn't say in which order Rob, Vee, and Sean would go.)

Why John thinks that Rob won't now take this information and form an Alliance Of Six to take out John's Alliance Of Four, I don't know, frankly, this was an incredibly stupid move on John's part (hey arch-enemy-bad-guy -- here's my plan, let me draw it out for you... and here's how you can beat me... here, let me write it on your head for you.)

Below is a link to the high speed streaming video feed:

http://cgi.cbs.com/video/video.pl/?url=cbs/cbs/g2demand/entertainment/primetime/survivor4/week05/video05_09.rm&proto=rtsp

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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-02, 06:08 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
I'm not so sure the plan is bound to fail. The best alliances in these games are the ones already formed. To wit,
1) Why or why didn't Pagong realize for three episodes that the Tagi 4 were voting together?
2) Why didn't Brandon stick with his majority Samburu to vote off Lex? And even after Kelly why didn't the Samburu 4 band together against the Boran 4?
And most egregious of all
3) Why did Amber do NOTHING when it became clear that she wasn't part of the central Ogakor alliance?

Based on the way New Mara is bonding, come merge (if there is a merge in E7) we are looking at three alliances. We have a solid 4 led by John and depending on who goes in E6 2 or 3 New Rotu and 3 or 4 New Mara. So John is still safe unless New Rotu and New Mara align. But is that likely?

If Gina is still around, she's going to have to swallow real hard to start voting the same way as Rob, Sean, and Vee. She hates these people. Similarly, Robfather may try to bide his time with John and get him to turn on his alliance rather than run to Gina.

If Gina gets the E6 boot, then you have 2 groups (R/S/V and K/N/P) that have never met trying to coordinate to boot out John. Vee would have to be the broker here since Gina has done nothing but spew venom about Rob and Sean. And if these groups don't get together and vote the same way, then John can pick them off.

I think John's plan will fail, but more likely by a backstabbing defector among his current allies. The Tammy scene especially, about turning on him if he tries to screw her seemed to me ripe with foreshadowing....

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-02, 01:10 AM (EST)
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11. "A thought"
According to Rob, John came to him and told him the plan was to vote off the NewMaraa tribe after the merge before he starts on their lazy asses... BUT did he tell Robert-Tammy-Zoe that too?

My bet is when John saw Sean and Rob talking he became nervous so he added Rob to his plan. Then he sees Rob and Gabe talking and further makes his deal with the devil. What I'm not convinced of it that he told the rest of his main tribe the side deal. Which would lead one of the other Rotu to suggest, "hey maybe we should throw one, and get rid of Rob/Sean's lazy butt", and when leader John says no... it might be a very short alliance.

-ICB

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-02, 02:24 AM (EST)
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12. "Strategies Revealed Don't Succeed"
While watching John reveal his plan to build an alliance and vote out Gabe, I couldn't help telling myself, "MB is showing us John's plan to vote out Gabe...that means it won't succeed!" But Gabe was voted out, so what's going on?

Thinking about it now, while John's plan to vote out Gabe succeeded, his alliance building strategy, which was also revealed to us, is the one that will ultimately fail...while the other alliances hidden by the editing (Zoe/Tammy/?)are the ones that will succeed in the end.

Krautboy

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-02, 03:45 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Strategies Revealed Don't Succeed"
I too was amazed when they came out early with the plan to vote out Gabe. To paraphrase a Shakes' summary of post IC--this is usually the part where they try to make you think A is going or B, then they all go in and vote out C. That didn't happen.

I wonder if MB has lightened up on trying to defeat the spoilers this season due to negative reaction to S3.

I know I and numerous others felt that he was going so far towards hiding the essential scheming and allying that the game as televised didn't make sense the way it did in S1.

I'm sure he got feedback that people enjoyed hearing the scheming and plotting and that was more entertaining than seeing endless footage about as strategic as elephant dung, and then being surprised by the boot. The general public Reality TV watcher (this is IMHO) wants to hear the strategizing, as in shows like Big Brother.

Therefore I am going to be very cautious about assuming this season that revealed strategies backfire as a rule derived primarily from what Burnett will or won't show us.

That said, very few strategies in a game like this will work exactly as planned; the show changes every few days and those who adapt survive.

As for John, I am not counting him out as a force. Even if John is making mistakes reminiscent of Lex: well, Lex got to third place and could easily have gotten to second if not taken it all--in spite of what we dismissed as utter stupidity at the time.

So far, John's strategy to get to the Final 4 by providing pig meat or fish has failed dismally, but his plan to boot Gabe worked in spite of some really gross miscalculations. We ARE being shown that John is acting stupidly.

The misdirection (there will always be misdirection, but I am arguing that this season there seems to be less HIDING and OMITTING of key conversations) could be showing us his errors so that we don't take the guy seriously as a threat, when in fact he bumbles through to the Final Four after all.

Just a thought. In sum, I feel the spoiling rules may have changed for S4. I am going to focus more on the logic within the game and the outside spoilers, rather than assuming the editing is primarily to thwart spoilers. I'm guessing the editing is primarily to please the public and get ratings this season, from what I have seen to date.

Sure, Burnett will try to keep us guessing about the finalists, but he may not care that much about hiding the earlier boots. A pendulum swing from S3, if so.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-02, 04:08 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Strategies Revealed Don't Succeed"
OFG: How was Hawaii? Oops wrong forum...

John is shown in previews contemplating a strategy of throwing the IC,(I assume to get rid of Rob,given all the John vs. Rob preview hype).

Are you thinking that MB has changed his editing philosophy and John's plan to convince the Rotu to throw a challenge and boot Rob 4-3 will succeed?

Krautboy

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-02, 05:45 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Strategies Revealed Don't Succeed"
LAST EDITED ON 03-30-02 AT 05:58 AM (EST)

Hey Krautboy,
I am still in Hawaii, thus posting at what looks to be so late--even further behind time zones than the West Coast, by two hours.

Good point you raise. You know how much I admire your reasoning, I hope, so I wasn't rejecting your theory, just thinking about how a new season may bring new patterns.

To answer your question, I wouldn't assume the plan shown in the previews will succeed. I totally agree that in general when a preview asks a question, "will this happen"--the answer is No. I have yet to see that change. I take such previews as hype. The all-female alliance question near end of S3 comes to mind as an example. I was actually not thinking about previews, but about the strategies revealed within an episode, and whether we can thus assume they fail to materialize in future episodes.

What I am suggesting is there are no hard and fast rules about Burnett editing from season to season. There are certainly patterns we have learned. One of them, from S2 and S3, was that when a player states their plans in an episode (or on Insider)--that usually does NOT reveal what happens. That worked quite well last season.

I'm speculating it may not work as a spoiling RULE this new season. This season seems less convoluted to me, although it's still really hard to spoil, IMO. Perhaps Burnett is trying to draw the public in a bit more by not being so dang mystifying about what's going on with the alliances.

I think he got carried away in S2 with his near-success at hiding Colby and Tina, and it got way out of hand in S3 with the mystification about core Boran alliances until near the end. (If anyone of the lurkers here who works for him reads this, please pass that along. It sucked. It was boring to hear them obsess about elephant dung and boils and to never really hear how they were playing the game for most of the show.)

I think viewers enjoyed seeing the Tagi ally, consider defecting, arguing, etc., and I wonder if Burnett has responded in S4 to some viewer complaints, i.e.--sometimes it's better TV not to hide everything, especially juicy scheming.

My basic caution about assuming misdirection, for my own thinking, is: let's not fall for the old Star Trek paradox: "Everything I tell you is a lie..." because it leads us in circles.

As far as this preview goes, I am still catching up and don't have a firm opinion yet, but my first guess would be that John's plan doesn't matter in this episode because Maraamu goes to TC. (Maybe)

I was just saying, let's not assume John falls on his face and gets booted real soon simply because his strategy has been revealed by the editing. Maybe, maybe not.

Edited to say that I do think that Burnett is still (stupidly) keeping the important players way too UTR, which annoys me. I am sure he is hiding a ton of stuff that will be sprung on us in the future. I'm not preaching that there's a kinder gentler Burnett out there, going all soft for spoilers. However, each episode of S4 seems less murky about what is happening for that particular episode than in S3, at least to me, and the lack of murk is in itself disconcerting. What a tangled web...

*coming back to our Left Coast on April Fool's Day. Coincidence?*

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-02, 12:30 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Strategies Revealed Don't Succeed"
Hey OFG: How do you keep the sand out of your keyboard? I love reading your stuff, your so calm in your reasoning. It must be what lying on the beach sipping Mai-Tais does for you...oops, wrong Forum...

Yes MB has responded to his audience this season. More skin, less elephant dung, more predictable boots and less misdirection. I still don't trust him. He's probably saving up his misdirection for the end of the game when it really counts...

Don't get me wrong, I also think John may make it to the final 4, just not in the way he plans to get there or we have been shown. He always stikes me as paniced and paranoid, but not as a leader in control. I agree that he will probably stumble through the game and be carried along by those who truly have control. (much like how keith was carried along)

I agree that the Rob vs. John hype will all be moot when Maraamu goes to TC this week, becoming "the underdogs" next week.

Krautboy

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In The Woods 55 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-02, 11:31 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Strategies Revealed Don't Succeed"
Krautboy, I have been lurking long, and just started posting this year. I find that you and OFG along with Bungler pretty much offer the most. I agree John is going to probably going to make it to the final 4. In keeping with MBs show us more this year theme, the previews stated something about John taking control of the tribe. I believe that Robert Tammy and Zoe all realy don't care that much about Sean and Rob, and will start eliminating them soon. The reason I'm posting on your thread about strategies revealed usualy don't succeed is that to date, we have seen very very little of Vees' stategey. She has made a comment about staying out of the dramma, but thats about all. To me, MB has her way way way below the radar for some reason. My thinking is that she is going to figure into the final 4, and even possibly aligning herself with John to get there. Just a thought.
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04-01-02, 12:18 PM (EST)
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29. "Sound bites"
>I was just saying, let's not
>assume John falls on his
>face and gets booted real
>soon simply because his strategy
>has been revealed by the
>editing. Maybe, maybe not.

I think there is one editing tool that MB still will use, and that's the "sound bites". We've talked about them a lot -- Richard's comment about the million being the one that started it all.

There are three sound bites that stick out for me so far:
- John's comment on how snaring a pig would guarantee him the final four. He hasn't gotten a pig yet, so he has no guarantee of final four.
- John's statement in the last episode where he wonders if he blew everything by revealing his strategy too early.

I think both of these statements are true statements, and that ultimately John will be brought down for overplaying too early. I also think we're going to have to wait a little while for that to happen. He may make final four (and then have the hidden powers of Tammy, Zoe, and Robert send him packing).

The third statement was Tammy's comment about feeding Sean and Rob until she voted their a$$es off. Again, I believe this to be a true statement, and see the current Rotu 7 as a temporary alliance against Gabe that will now break back into old Rotu vs. New Rotu.

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03-31-02, 05:57 PM (EST)
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18. "Why John's plan will work"
I disagree with most of you guys. I just don't see anyone switching over to the old Maraamu's side. First off there would be no advantage for Robert, Zoe, and Tammy? They would be the first one voted out when it came down to them and Sean, Rob, and Vee at the end of the game since Rob, Sean, and Vee already had an alliance from the beginning of the game. If they stay in their alliance with John, they have a chance to make it to the final 2 at the end of the game since in that alliance they are all basically equal with each other since they formed it at the same time.
On the new Maraamu, Gina would never join with Rob, Sean, and Vee and I highly doubt that Neleh, Paschal, or Kathy would after everything Gina has told them about Sean, Rob, and Vee. I think that once the tribes merge, John will change his mind about picking off new maraamu one by one, and we will finally say goodbye to the sean/rob/vecepia alliance.


______________________________________________________________
19 year old Student at the University of Florida--Go Gators, Go Gina, and Go Gary and Dave!
______________________________________________________________
"I may be alot of things, but I ain't no Hershey Bar."

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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

04-01-02, 01:40 AM (EST)
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19. "Was Vee the linchpin?"
Gabe knew John was targeting him for the vote.

Rob knew, that he could manage a 4-4 tie with Gabe, Sean, Vee and himself voting against John's 4. Rob also knew this was likely to be his ONLY chance to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

So why didn't Rob, Sean, Vee and Gabe not vote as a block against John's 4 and take their chances in the tie breaker?

The only answer that makes sense to me is that Vee refused to vote with Rob, Sean & Gabe.

This would imply that Vee has a deal with someone in John's group of 4, and I don't mean to suggest that it's with John himself.

Survivor is a game that I originally thought would favor young fit athletes. I.E. Joel, Greg, Kelly, Alicia, Colby, Nick, Silas, Ethan, etc... And in truth some of these players did very well.

The thing that has really surprised me however, is how well older woman do. It seems to me that if the older woman aren't voted out fairly early the tribes begin to rally along matriarcal lines (Tina, Teresa, Gretchen) instead of around the athletes. I suspect this says something about human nature.

My point I guess is that We've gotten pretty far in the game and Zoe is still around. If Vee's vote was the stumbling block that Rob & Sean couldn't secure, then I think Vee probably has realized the power in the camp is Zoe and aligned accordingly.

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JeffGator 1401 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-02, 01:51 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Was Vee the linchpin?"
ummm...Rob, Sean, and Vee did not vote as a block against John's 4 and take their chances in the tie breaker because Gabe refused to join with them and do it. So Rob, Sean and Vee alone would have lost in a 4-3 vote without the help of Gabe and rather than stand out as 2 tribes within one, they all voted for Gabe.


______________________________________________________________
19 year old Student at the University of Florida--Go Gators, Go Gina, and Go Gary and Dave!
______________________________________________________________
"I may be alot of things, but I ain't no Hershey Bar."

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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

04-01-02, 03:34 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: Was Vee the linchpin?"
I think you are assuming things we don't KNOW.

You say Rob, Sean, Vee & Gabe didn't vote as a block because GABE REFUSED TO VOTE AGAINST HIS ORIGINAL TEAM. - This doesn't hold water with me because That's EXACTLY the commitment John was asking Gabe for, and Gabe refused to give it.

For the assertion that Rob, Sean, Vee & Gabe didn't vote as a block because Gabe refused to cast a vote against his original team would require Gabe to have decided that he WAS going to cast a vote against Rob, Sean, or Vee at TC but that for some bizarre reason he just refused to confirm it for John.

Why in the world would Gabe think "I'm going to vote against Rob, Sean, or Vee at TC but won't it be cool to screw with John's mind and see how paranoid he can get while I'm at it?"

It's factually true that Gabe did cast his vote against Rob, but I think he decided to do this only after it became apparent to Rob, Sean and him that there was no point in voting against the John 4 without Vee's vote to go along with them.

Keep in mind, when Rob, Sean & Vee first changed teams with the swap, that Sean approached Vee to make sure she was still tight with them and she shot him down.

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Mitrelleum 257 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-02, 03:55 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Was Vee the linchpin?"
Just my two cents, but I don't think Vee's shooting down of Sean's "drama" was any indication that their alliance was finished, and I believe in Gabe's chat he got permission from Rob to vote for him. He mentioned that he didn't even want to vote for Rob.
I honestly think that Gabe voted for Rob because he had to vote for somebody, and it was just easier considering he didn't know Rob as well, and got the OK from him.
Let's face it, Gabe didn't wanna play, he didn't wanna vote. I don't think Vee's standing with Rob and Sean is even an issue yet, although it does seem that she is smooching up to the Rotu's as Rob suggests she is good at doing. Vee only really has Sean and Rob to trust right now. That may change, but I think for now Rob, Sean and Vee voted for Gabe to make it look like they were team players. If one of them voted otherwise, that person would have been targeted at the next TC. I'm sure John would see to it. If R/S/V stick with John now, there is a better chance he will vote the New Maraamu's off first after the merge. If they voted differently, regardless of Gabe's help, John would definitely NOT want them around since they would appear to be fighting him. Therefore since no one on Maraamu has betrayed them, he may favor them over R/S/V just for voting against his tide.
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JeffGator 1401 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-02, 03:55 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Was Vee the linchpin?"
First of all, I think the very idea that Vee aligned herself with John, Zoe, Robert, and Tammy is so absurd it's not even funny. Anyway, here's a piece of the recap of the show on the CBS website--

"With the vote looming, Rob Mariano, the 26-year-old construction worker from Canton, Massachusetts, approached Gabriel, realizing that he could possibly be the swing vote at the night's Tribal Council. Attempting to ally himself with Gabe, Rob asked, "Are you a hundred percent set on how you want to play the game?" Despite Rob's attempt to persuade his vote, Gabe stuck to his original game plan and was the fifth person voted out of Survivor: Marquesas."

This says that Gabe's original game plan was to vote for Rob. I don't think MB would lie that badly to us. I also don't think Mark Burnett would show John aligning with Robert, Tammy, and Zoe but then leave out the aligning with Vee. And I recall Vee saying on one occasion to Sean and Rob "I'm with you guy no matter what, you know that, but I can't handle all this drama." I think I could go on and on for reasons why Vee could not have and did not align herself with John/Tammy/Zoe/Robert but I am just too tired.


______________________________________________________________
19 year old Student at the University of Florida--Go Gators, Go Gina, and Go Gary and Dave!
______________________________________________________________
"I may be alot of things, but I ain't no Hershey Bar."

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

04-01-02, 06:39 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Was Vee the linchpin?"
I have to agree with JeffGator on this one. I think Gabe refused the offer he couldn't refuse from the Robfadder.

While Vee has been almost completely UTR, MB has SHOWN us scenes of her seemingly being independent-minded (blending in with Rotu) and shooting darts at Sean and Sarah ("Malcolm Farrahkan", "She has a cute body; she paid a lot for it."). However, Vee so far has voted with Sean in EVERY vote, and took Sarah's side against Hunter in the TC of Ep. 3. She made the comment to Rob and Sean that she is with them all the way. I see no real evidence that she has meshed into Rotu any better than the others, nor do we get any clue that she is any safer than the other Old Maras in Rotu.

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

04-01-02, 09:26 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Was Vee the linchpin?"
>I think you are assuming things
>we don't KNOW.
>
I don't mean to pile on, but while we may not "KNOW" things, there are things we can be pretty sure of. John went after Gabe because Gabe made it clear that he would not play the game--i.e., he would not join an alliance or commit before TC that he would vote against a specific person. Gabe did not do this because he liked the new members of Rotu better than the old. He did this because he is "weird"--or more to the point, he just wanted to focus on the community aspect of Survivor and not the game aspect. Gabe acknowledged in his chat (try to find it if you have not read it yet) that his strategy was likely to mean that he would be voted out his first TC. He did not care. For whatever reason, his personal values prevented him from playing the game (which really makes me wonder why he agreed to go on the show--but that is his business).

Gabe stated in his chat that Rob tried to get Gabe to vote with Rob's group but Gabe refused. This makes sense in a way. The easiest way for Gabe to have saved himself would have been to commit to John--his friend from the beginning of the game. If he would not make a commitment to John out of some lame principle, why would Gabe make a commitment to Rob (one of the most lazy members of the tribe). Only after Gabe made it clear to Rob that Gabe would not go along with the plan, Rob decided to vote against Gabe. Gabe then asked Rob if it would be OK to vote for Rob and Rob said yes. This is all basically outlined by Gabe in his chat.

While it is possible that Gabe is lying for MB to hide the hidden Vee alliance with old Rotu, I think this is highly unlikely. Gabe played his own game. It was a very strange game--one that is hard to understand on its surface. It is this lack of logic in his game that may lead a person to think that there must be more to it. But--it seems clear that there is not any more to it. Gabe is just not a survivor.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-02, 10:33 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: Was Vee the linchpin?"
It is possible, I suppose, that Gabe thought he could buy some time for himself by appearing to be a non-threatening element in the game (yeah, become an unpredictable element, that's smart), so that he could get to the point of the merge, reunifying with Neleh and Paschal and a basis of an alliance there. I would not be surprised, though, if Gabe actually was telling the truth, that he wasn't there for the game at all.

Vee has done whatever she could to fit in (Rob called it kissing a##) with the Rotu, this just seems like a simple UTR strategy to buy herself the most time in the game, nothing more. What is looking very likely now is that the merge will go ahead as usual in episode seven, with John's alliance of four intact, the three Rotu in Maraamu, and three Maraamu (Gina, Rob or Sean will probably be gone next).

If Gina survives this week then she would be likely to unify with Kathy, Neleh and Paschal in another alliance of four, as those three are going to have to restrategize in light of the Gabe boot. Whether the other two Maraamu would join forces and make this an alliance of six, even if only for one episode in order to oust John and level the playing field, is another thing altogether. John has made promises to everyone, it seems, in order to prevent something like that happening, though I doubt if Rob is buying any of that noise. If John is smart he will eliminate Rob from the game immediately, if he doesn't then Rob will do everything he can to unify the alliance of six to take John out of the game at the merge (or one of John's allies should John win immunity). If Rob is the next to go, however, Sean and Vee might just settle for riding on John's wake to take them as far into the game as they can go.

Anyway: Vee, Sean, Gina, Neleh all seem to be established as followers, though Vee could begin her own strategy if the opportunity presents itself. Kathy, John and Rob are the established strategists, and of the three Rob is the smartest in terms of understanding the true nature of the game, but in the weakest position. Robert, Tammy and Zoe, in John's alliance, remain as hidden factors, though I think it certain they will only go along with John as long as it is in their interest to do so, and one of the three may be letting John take the visible leader-target position in order to set him up for the kill at or after the merge.

One thing that may also be a factor in how people are playing the game: The last thing they saw of S3 was the Twist episode, which concluded with Probst throwing doubt on when the merge would occur.

Cap'n Zoe Just YoHoHoee!

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In The Woods 55 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"

04-01-02, 11:46 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Was Vee the linchpin?"
I think Vee is playing the game smartly from what we are shown. As of now, she is absolutly NO threat to anyone. If she indeed tell Sean, Rob and Gabe she would not vote for John, it was smart game playing on her part. She has seen Sean shoot his mouth off in front of the tribe, and she can't be blind to the laziness of Sean and Rob. As long as she keep flying low under the radar, I think she will make it far, and probably be added to the promise list of John. A list I feel will continue to grow and grow.
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gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"

04-01-02, 01:34 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Was Vee the linchpin?"
"Anyway: Vee, Sean, Gina, Neleh all seem to be established as followers, though Vee could begin her own strategy if the opportunity presents itself. Kathy, John and Rob are the established strategists, and of the three Rob is the smartest in terms of understanding the true nature of the game, but in the weakest position. "

Sean is not a follower. He has been the person that has not followed anybody. He was the first to go up against Hunter. He said he would not allow Hunter to be the Alpha Male. He saved Sarah for Rob therefore he brought them over to him not the other way around. He decided to boot Hunter. Rob said it was up to Sean to decide who went, Hunter or Gina. Sean was the first one to balk at Rotu's work ethic and told Gabe himself he would not follow it. Sean went to Rob with the Gabe boot and Rob discussed it with Gabe. Better to let Rob seen talking to Gabe than Sean.

If Rob were really running the alliance then we would not hear his strategy in confessionals. He claims he hides behind the Alpha Males. Sean has had several confessionals where he states that he is an Alpha male and will not allow anyone to tell him what to do so why would he balk at Hunter, Gabe, John and not Rob. Sean is telling Rob what to do, IMO. It is Rob that is drawing the scheming, untrustworthy attention. Sean just appears lazy but safe to talk to and discuss plans, EX. John. Rob was an afterthought.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

04-02-02, 11:18 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Was Vee the linchpin?"
Sean is not a follower. He ... Rob said it was up to Sean to decide who went, Hunter or Gina. ... Sean went to Rob with the Gabe boot and ...

Yes, you seem to be making my point here, that Sean is following Rob's strategy, that Rob is the leader of what's left of Da Mob. Rob is the one who is playing the game strategically right now for both himself and his allies, Sean and Vee seem to be letting him do this because they know their positions are weak within New Rotu and their only hope of being part of the control group in the game is if Rob somehow manages to turn things around.

Sean has had several confessionals where he states that he is an Alpha male and will not allow anyone to tell him what to do so why would he balk at Hunter, Gabe, John and not Rob. Sean is telling Rob what to do, IMO.

With all due respect, there is no way Sean got Rob into this "Godfather" bit, and we're seeing it because it makes good TV. Rob isn't telling Sean what to do, however, I'll grant you that; Rob's game is about motivation rather than direct command. And none of it will matter, ultimately, if they can't shake up the game and come out on top of things.

As things currently stand, Rob has two tactics to try to employ:
(1) rattle John's alliance in an effort to shatter it.
(2) get himself, Sean and Vee to the merge and join forces with whatever remains of New Maraamu in order to break John's alliance.

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-02, 10:37 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: What's John's Merge Plan? (or why John will probably fail)"
I see some other similarities between John and Lex. We thought Lex would never win because even if he made it to the end he wouldn't get the vote. We thought the others didn't like him. But the players talked and said Lex was well-liked and would have won the vote if he was in the final 2. Now we wonder if John could ever win in a final vote. Is he coming off as too cocky and will the others not give him the win. But Gabe said that he liked John the best. Gabe said that John was very smart and charismatic. He said John could attract others to him and he did not come off as manipulative he was just playing the game. Do the others feel the same way about John that Gabe does? Will John's charisma win the game for him?

And yes, will John catch that pig that puts him in the final 4? I don't know why but I really think Tammy and Zoe are going to be in that final 4. But I'm not sure about John yet. He might just miss his final 4 and be voted out as final 5. And he will think he should have caught that pig. Maybe Rob will finally catch his chicken and that will move him past John in popularity.

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