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JeffGator 1401 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 03-29-02, 01:47 AM (EST) "I think we know who the final 4 will be" Doesn't Mark Burnett always show us very clearly who the final players will be around episode 5? Take a look: S1: EPISODE 5--Rich forms the evil Tagi alliance with Sue, Rudy, and Kelly who ultimately are the last 4 players left in the game. S2: EPISODE 5--After defecting from the Jerri/Amber Alliance and voting Mitchel out, Colby makes the switch to Keith and Tina who are ultimately the final 3. S3: EPISODE 2--Ok now this one is earlier; Tom, Lex, and Ethan agree to make it to the end and they do make the final 4. S4: EPISODE 5--John commits himself to Zoe, Robert, and Tammy. How far will they go? We will have to stay tuned. In every Survivor, by episode 5 we have seen clear indication of an alliance being formed that will make the final 4. I don't think Burnett has shown us any other alliances being formed. I mean we are supposed to assume that Rob, Sean, and Vee are together but he's never shown us the 3 of them agreeing on taking it to the end like he did John, Zoe, Tammy, and Robert. I think he only shows people literally committing like that when those are the actual final contestants. Mark Burnett likes to show us the forming of an alliance, and then spends the rest of the show trying to trick us into thinking that the alliance is going to break up. He's done it every Survivor. ______________________________________________________________ 19 year old Student at the University of Florida--Go Gators, Go Gina, and Go Gary and Dave! ______________________________________________________________ "I may be alot of things, but I ain't no Hershey Bar."   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: I think we know who the final 4... smokedog 03-29-02 1  RE: I think we know who the final 4... SurvivinDawg 03-29-02 2    RE: I think we know who the final 4... bubsy 03-29-02 3        RE: I think we know who the final 4... LilNik8 03-29-02 9  RE: I think we know who the final 4... sorgee 03-29-02 4  RE: I think we know who the final 4... JohnMc 03-29-02 5    RE: I think we know who the final 4... PepeLePew13 03-29-02 7        Clarification JohnMc 03-29-02 12    RE: I think we know who the final 4... hrc2u 03-29-02 8        RE: I think we know who the final 4... JohnMc 03-29-02 13  RE: I think we know who the final 4... Fast Eddie 03-29-02 6    RE: I think we know who the final 4... Mitrelleum 03-29-02 10        RE: I think we know who the final 4... PepeLePew13 03-29-02 11  RE: I think we know who the final 4... ycartdraw 03-29-02 14    RE: I think we know who the final 4... JohnMc 03-29-02 16  RE: I think we know who the final 4... gemstone 03-29-02 15

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smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 03-29-02, 02:17 AM (EST) 1. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" Jeff, I agree with your logic. I think the problem with the spoiling community is, like you touched on, that they don't want to believe or don't trust what is staring them in the face. S1) The Tagi 4 completely changed how the game has been played. Their alliance was so strong even Jeff Probst tried to break them up with his TC antics and interrogations. S2) This alliance was thrust into the spotlight after the blindside of Mitchell. Colby and Tina were the power couple, dragging Keith along for his vote and then dumping him when he was no longer needed. S3) This alliance was shown to us and what made spoilers not trust this one is because we thought that the S3 players would have a better grasp on the game. There were at least 2 instances in the game that could have changed who the winner was. If Samburu (Frank/Kim P/Teresa/Brandon) teamed up on Boran (Ethan/Lex/Tom/Kim J) or the women (Kim P/Kim J/Teresa) teamed up on the men (Ethan/Lex/Tom) it would have been all over. S4) I like your Final 4. The only way to bust it up would be for Rob/Sean/Vee to align with whomever comes from Maraamu to create a 6 on 4, or the loner in the final five to win immunity, causing the Rotu 4 to kill one of their own.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-29-02, 07:22 AM (EST) 2. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" JG, you make some excellent points (didn't know you had it in ya, being a Gator and all... ) and I'd like to add this: In S-III, Ep. 5 also showed a lot about the alliances. It was the swap episode, but we saw a lot of who Ethan's alliance was, as well as Lex and Tom. So you're really on the right track. Yes, we will have to watch John, Tammy, Robert and Zoe. It is very logical to assume they will become a voting bloc and a strong one. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

bubsy 246 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-29-02, 09:22 AM (EST) 3. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" i agree with smokedog. i think that the alliance that has formed will be broken or one of it's members will be voted off by the old rotu members who are now with the moomoos. -we all saw how upset paschal was in the promo for next episode. i'm not sure, but correct me if i'm wrong. neither tammy, robert nor zoe promised not to vote for john. hmm... -just a thought. ;)   Top

LilNik8 195 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-29-02, 03:05 PM (EST) 9. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" >i'm not sure, but correct me >if i'm wrong. neither tammy, >robert nor zoe promised not >to vote for john. >hmm... >-just a thought. ;) I think when John said that he wouldn't vote for Robert, Robert said that he would never put John's name on the paper or vice versa. *~*Nicole*~*   Top

sorgee 1455 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 03-29-02, 10:19 AM (EST) 4. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" most of my posts have been completely off target so i am hesitant to make this one... i FIRMLY think that tammy will end up ditching john. i think that alliance will last only as long as she wants it to. i think that she is the wild card of that group of 4. zoe could also be a wild card, but i really don't think that she will be the one that upsets the "alliance." ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Don't do the action if you can't handle the reaction. ~deborah briggs   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 03-29-02, 10:54 AM (EST) 5. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" Good call, to a degree... I do believe that the New Rotu alliance is clearly John/Robert/Tammy/Zoe. However, in this season, the switch worked much better than the S3 swap in terms of shaking up alliances. I say that because New Maraamu is now a cohesive unit with Gina/Paschal/Neleh/Kathy. (Also, New Rotu really started to become more of a team similar to NewM.) If they make it to the merge intact, then the swing votes become Vee/Rob/Sean (minus one, of course, if Rotu goes to the next TC). It's hard to tell who, anymore, will be voted off of Rotu next, though you'd think it would have to be someone from old Moomoo. Vee is fairly well UTR, so it's either Rob or Sean. Using the Robfather logic that CeeBS wouldn't go to the trouble of getting pseudo-logo rights for such a short time, I'd guess that Sean is the next to go. So with the NR alliance and the NM alliance and Vee/Rob as the swing, those two seem to be in the power position. Do the align w/NR, which means they will be voted off once NR is done with them (short of winning immunity)? Or do they align w/NM and hope that Gina has forgiven for (a) being stupid and (b) voting off her boyfriend? How do they get farther in the game? John has pretty clearly indicated that he will vote Vee/Rob off, so if they are smart, they'll try to align w/NR. An interesting game so far - note that Rob has actually been in charge through the whole game. Short of Gina, he has voted off everyone in the game so far. He is definitely the Robfather.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-29-02, 02:31 PM (EST) 7. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" >I say that because New Maraamu is now a cohesive >unit with Gina/Paschal/Neleh/Kathy. (Also, New >Rotu really started to become more of a team >similar to NewM.) If they make it to the merge >intact, then the the swing votes become >Vee/Rob/Sean (minus one, of course, if Rotu >goes to the next TC). I just don't know if Vee is truly aligned with Rob and Sean, we have seen no interaction whatsoever between her and the two boys since the switch. The only thing we've heard is that she said she might be loyal to Sean but would distance herself totally from his comments. They're still in the minority, though, and I cannot see Zoe or Tammy even considering dumping John in favour of V/R/S and I think it's clear that Robert is tight with John. Vee/Rob/Sean doesn't have a chance in the game, IMO -- I think whoever is left of Pappy, Neleh and Kathy would rather support their old tribemates than to support V/R/S especially since they've had Gina to feed them info about the old Moomoos. I think the wildcard in this game is Gina. Will she stick with the 3 oldRotus or will she consider re-aligning with Rob and Sean (fat chance)? I don't see Gina jumping to join John/Robert/Tammy/Zoe. We have to see who wins the next IC -- this is the most pivotal boot of the game as the road to the final four will suddenly clear up. >Using the Robfather logic that CeeBS wouldn't go >to the trouble of getting pseudo-logo rights for such a >short time, I'd guess that Sean is the next to go. I agree. I kept waiting for a Robfather performance to come up last night and was left hanging. Rob's story is not even close to being done since CBS went to the trouble to add the Godfather-type image to Survivor's logo. >An interesting game so far - note that Rob has actually >been in charge through the whole game. Short of >Gina, he has voted off everyone in the game so >far. He is definitely the Robfather. You're thinking of Sarah, not Gina... and I think it's more like that Rob THINKS he's in control. He sure isn't in control over in Rotu. The only possible way Rob can gain any control from here on is if Pappy and Neleh object greatly to John's ouster of Gabriel, but I don't think so.   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 03-29-02, 03:27 PM (EST) 12. "Clarification" <<I just don't know if Vee is truly aligned with Rob and Sean>> I don't mean to imply that Vee is aligned with Rob/Sean, just that she's also on the outside looking in like they are. Vee, however, can survive if she can form an alliance with one of the 2 groups of 4. I think her best bet is with NM. She has been VERY good about not burning bridges, covering her back, and avoiding drama. <<I think the wildcard in this game is Gina. Will she stick with the 3 oldRotus or will she consider re-aligning with Rob and Sean (fat chance)? I don't see Gina jumping to join John/Robert/Tammy/Zoe>> I don't see Gina jumping either. Personally, I think she's in tight w/NM. <<You're thinking of Sarah, not Gina>> Pepe, thanks for the correction. That was a big DUH on my part. The point I was trying to make is that Rob had voted for every bootee except to save his girlfriend on his old tribe. I think you are right - <<Rob THINKS he's in control.>> Rob and Sean should be the next 2 to go, though I think somehow Rob manages to make the jury. (That's my Lex gut on that one, and we know how wrong that can be. It just allows the RobFather thing to carry through to the end game.)   Top

hrc2u 146 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-29-02, 03:00 PM (EST) 8. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" Correctly if I'm wrong; I remember John coming to Sean for his help and promising him if he voted with him he would be safe until the merge. Perhaps this is mute if rotu wins immunity, or if there is another shake up at Rotu and another leader takes control. I don't think Zoe is totally with this allaince but can't say for sure because they don't talk to her. I read in an article that Zoe is very outgoing. I'm not seeing this in the editing. For what it's worth, I think she's around for awhile until we start hearing her story. hrc2u   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 03-29-02, 03:33 PM (EST) 13. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" John just told Sean what was going on to guarantee his 5 votes against Gabe and to prevent the OM to cause a tie. There is NO alliance between the 2. John will now begin the Pagonging process. Zoe may not have her heart into this alliance. She may defect at the merge, and could possibly take Tammy and Robert w/her to ally w/NM. That's a group of 7, which is essentially OR minus Gabe (he's gone) and John (he's next after the merge) plus Gina, though that probably only takes her to F7 then. But I digress... Zoe does have her head in the game and she did what she needed to do. Good girl!   Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-29-02, 10:58 AM (EST) 6. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" LAST EDITED ON 03-29-02 AT 11:24 AM (EST) Excellent insight. My minor quibbles are with calling the Tagi alliance "evil". At the time, people said that because the concept of an alliance was still very controversial. Now, everybody has accepted it, but they still think "evil", though they have forgotten why. Which leads to my second quibble, that Tagi "changed" the game. As it was the first time it was played, I'd say "defined" would be a better word. But these are very minor points. What I would add (of value, I hope), is that, while the S4 Gang of Four looks solid, John is making a serious error (IMHO) in sticking his head out and crowning himself leader. Stuck out heads are just asking to get chopped off. Better to follow the lead of Rich and pretend at least to be just an equal - as did the members of the other alliances mentioned. That way, the other players don't have a clear target and the other alliance members don't have a reason for resentment. Four is a very powerful alliance. If they lose the next IC, they have a clear majority. Post-merge, 4 out of 10 is very strong, but even more so when you consider the position of Sean & Rob. Gina has bonded well with her new team, and has no doubt told them enough about these two characters that no Maumaus will want to do business with them. Take out these two orphans and four is now almost unbeatable. But John has to shut up and they all have to hide their strength, like Tagi did, until it's too late for the opponents to do anything about it. If they can pull it off, it's clear sailing to the Final 4.   Top

Mitrelleum 257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-29-02, 03:10 PM (EST) 10. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" John's big mistake was talking to Sean. Not only did he tell Rob what John said, but what's to stop Sean from telling the new Maraamu's about John's plan to oust Gabriel? This may upset the new Mu's to oust John along with Rob and Sean or Rob and Vee with Gina. 6-4. They could then oust Robert, Tammy and then Zoe, and duke it out at the final six. Rob and Sean will only win this way if Gina is voted out next, and the tie-breaker goes their way. If not, then we're lookin at Kathy, Neleh and Paschal in the final three.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-29-02, 03:22 PM (EST) 11. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" LAST EDITED ON 03-29-02 AT 03:23 PM (EST) That could very well happen, but if you're Pappy/Neleh/Kathy -- who are you going to listen to more: Gina who seems nice and has connected well over the last two episodes and has negative things to say about Sean (and Rob)... or Sean whom they don't know and have yet to be in the same tribe and he's talking stuff about John whom P/N/K already know and like? IMO, Pappy/Neleh/Kathy will go along with any plans to dump Sean first before they would consider going against their old tribemates because Gina's negative comments about Sean/Rob will carry more weight.   Top

ycartdraw 46 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-29-02, 03:34 PM (EST) 14. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" I posted part of this already so it will be a bit of a repeat but.. I don't think Zoe is alligning herself with anyone on the new ROTU. I think it was her/Gabe/Neleh/Paschal, then they got split up. She fully intends to pair back up with them at the merge but she has to make it there first. Therefore. Since she knew Gabe was going no matter what she did, she voted for him in order to look like she was alligned with them. She will do it again until the merge if they lose IC. Once they merge, she will rejoin forces with Neleh and Paschal, and now Gina and Kathy, because they are p$^$ off about them turning on Gabe. So it would be an alliance of 5. Whoever is left of Rob/Sean/Vee will figure this out real quick and side up with them. So John will be out soon after the merge. Tammy and Robert seem to be pretty tight. When Robert and John were talking and Robert said he wouldn't vote for John, he didn't look real convincing to me. I think he and Tammy are playing him along, thinking they will dump him later. But the NM could ruin all that for them. I like Tammy so I hope she stays in, but I don't think it is looking too good.   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 03-29-02, 05:50 PM (EST) 16. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" Have been rereading some posts, and I'm starting to wonder about how Zoe fits in. 1) Zoe is definitely in tight w/John/Robert/Tammy. She has this alliance working for her now, and for the next episode. 2) Zoe may also have formed a 4some before the swap, and the more I read it the more I think it is Zoe/Gabe/Neleh/Paschal. Unfortunately, she had to do what she had to do in voting Gabe out to stay in the game. (Note: Gabe is NOT a Survivor game player. If he was really all that tight w/Zoe and wanted to play, he could have talked to her and found out how to save himself.) So what happens at the merge? We almost have an overlapping alliance if OR + Gina all come back. (Btw, I still think Gina has formed a lasting bond in NM.) The outsiders are Vee, Rob, and Sean. There are a bunch of combinations that would keep the NM and NR alliances, but those 3 need to align themselves somehow to stay alive. Vee - she'll get in tight w/one of the groups, though I don't know if she's made the right alliances to get very far. I see her leaving at 9 Rob - even if he's a creep, at least he wants to play the game. He goes at 10. Makes the merge, not the jury. Sean - Unless Rotu wins immunity, he's next on the pecking order. He's basically said that he's not working since he's getting booted next, though in the last ep he didn't come off nearly as bad as before. I did get the impression that his status has improved, but I doubt it is enough to keep him from going next. What happens next after the merge w/the 2 groups of 4? Should be interesting...   Top

gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-29-02, 05:42 PM (EST) 15. "RE: I think we know who the final 4 will be" S1 and S2 did not have a swap so showing the alliance in Ep 5 was possible instead of earlier. S3 showed it in Ep 2 so maybe we have seen it in Ep 2 in S4 too with the Patricia ousting. Sean, Rob and Vee.   Top

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