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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-23-02, 04:34 PM (EST) "Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" Problem: We have not seen blatant Rotu1.0 alliances and solid friendships (except Neleh and Pachal). Purpose of thread: to present info on the possible friendships in Rotu and to allow subsequent posters to reply on where the alliances are and/or where the alliances will be. Spoiler value: Presently, little. If Mara1.0 members all get booted in next episodes, Rotu1.0 alliance info may get moreso edited so it becomes difficult to determine outcome of merge when Rotu1.0 must turn on each other. So value may not exist until those conditions and at that timepoint (i.e. total Rotu1.0 merge) Hypothesis: Episode 4 was crucial for info on Rotu1.0 alliances because: 1) By this time, alliances may be mostly set 2) Tribes were mixed so last chance to see all Rotu1.0 interact together 3) As storyline shifts onto the individuals of Rotu1.0, alliance info may get edited out Materials: VCR, videotape of Ep4, remote control (with frame-by-frame ability), 3 hours free time, patience, quasi-keen eye, splash of O.C.D. Methods: All group interactions were analyzed for individual interactions, e.g.; touching, waving, eye-contact, body language, smirks, smiles and basic friendly gestures. A differentiation was attempted between positive and negative interactions. An attempt was made to ignore obligatory, random and accidental interactions. Example of ignored situation: who stood next to who on wooden discs during swap, people appeared to look at a disc and b-line to it, or just take the closest, or just take what was left - they seemed to understand the random nature of the situation. Results: Neleh and Paschal and Kathy(N+P+K): Rotu1.0 members that are at Mara2.0 camp Lets address this Rotu1.0 triad first and separately to help predict what happens over at Mara2.0 camp Overview: We've heard the quote and seen some love between N+P, is this MB misdirection? No, but they are not co-dependent, and I believe that Paschal is more independent (better networked) of Neleh than vice versa. In Rotu1.0 they do not always walk together or stand together in groups, but data below supports they are close. The three are not as tight as N+P of course, but I think there is a friendship between Kathy and Paschal that is not there for Kathy and Neleh. Also, the K+P friendship is stronger from Kathy's side. I think Neleh dislikes Kathy and Paschal tolerates Kathy. Summary: Paschal leads the pecking order and is liked by both. Data: Update vids from Ep3: shows everyone working on raft together but Kathy and Pasch are missing, perhaps off doing a task together. Pre-swap: Kathy walks over to Paschal at Rotu1.0 camp and hugs him, P is mildly receptive Swap: When Pasc went to Mara2.0 mat, Neleh stepped forward to hug him, Pasc then hugged Gina and Kathy but then went back to Neleh to stand next to her rather than Kathy on the other side. Mara2.0 camp: N+P stand next to each other while eating fruit, Gina quote, "Kathy gets on N+P's nerves, she is aggressive they are passive", IC: N+P walk in next to each other, N+P stand next to each other on mat and also have the closest physical proximity compared to anyone else on mat. N+P stand next to each other during the challenge, N+P standing next to each other at end of challenge while Jeff yaps TC: N+P sit next to each other. Mara2.0 camp/IC/TC: P is not shown directly next to Kathy in any of these situations, although there was a negative quote from Neleh on Kathy there was not one from P on Kathy. All Rotu1.0 members This includes the 3 ex-members (N+P+K) to help predict what happens at the merge Overview: The three strongest leaders are Gabe, John and Tammy. Gabe and John do not get along well, but Tammy gets along well with both. Gabe is respected for his strength but if his leadership decisions clash with John's and the tribe agrees with John, Gabe may lose all tribe support. John is not in this danger as much because he has developed better friendships with the rest of the tribe. Summary: Rotu1.0 has 2 Kings (Gabe and John) and 1 Queen (Tammy). If the Kings clash, Tammy will reign with the victor. John has more supporters so watch for rulership to shift to him and Tammy. Pecking Order: Leaders with possible closest friends: John: Tammy, Robert, Zoe, Paschal, Neleh Tammy: John, Gabe, Zoe Gabe: Tammy, Paschal Second Command with closest friends: Zoe: John, Robert, Paschal, Neleh (Gabe and Tammy?) Third Tier: Robert: Zoe, John, Kathy Paschal: Neleh, Zoe, John, Kathy, Gabe Fourth Tier: Neleh: Paschal, John, Kathy: Paschal Data: Episode 3 update: Tammy and Zoe working together, Zoe holding Robert's hand while John tends foot Rotu1.0 camp: John braiding Neleh's hair (Robert sitting nearby), Kathy hugs Paschal, Paschal approaches Gabe in water, John and Tammy talking together, Gabe approaches and touches both John and Tammy but gets apathetic reception and keeps walking, robert and John working together. Swap entrance and stances: Walk-in order (first to last): Neleh, John, Gabe, Robert, Tammy, Paschal, Kathy, Zoe Mat order (left to right): Kathy, Robert, John, Gabe, Neleh, Tammy, Pasch, Zoe Mat dynamics: Although John and Gabe are next to each other, they are not interactive Walking off mats to discs: Jeff says "Go" to leave mat, 3 groups are distinct: Group 1: Gabe, Neleh, Tammy are first 3 to step off, and step off in unison, Gabe then stops while Neleh and Tammy b-line for discs. Group 2: Pasch and Zoe hesitate together before leaving mat, Zoe steps off first with Paschal immediately following Group 3: Kathy, Robert, John hesitate together. John steps off first, Robert follows, then Kathy. Gabe: Throughout whole swap and disc fun, Gabe appears to be in his own little world, with others paying little attention to him when he hesitates to step on a disc, then stares down at it, then stares into the sky, then squats on his disc. Walking from discs to mats : When Gabe is only one standing on Rotu2.0 mat with Zoe, they are not touching, As Neleh goes to Mara2.0 mat, she gives sad wave to Gabe and Zoe. Neleh later makes remark at TC that she was bummed when she saw 2 of Rotu's strongest members on the mat when she went to her mat. When John goes to Rotu2.0 mat he chooses to stand next to Gabe over Zoe (perhaps to challenge Gabe's power? - I think this is a common thing with John - standing next to Gabe as a power struggle - not as a sign of friendship). No observances on how Robert joined bunch, but he ends up standing next to John. When Tammy walks over, John gives her a very friendly tease-face, tammy steps by Gabe and Zoe to hug the new Rotus (Rob and Sean) and then gives Gabe and Zoe a mild hug. Zoe gives wink and blows kiss to Paschal as he walks over to Mara2.0 mat. When all is done, Neleh is crying. Walking off mats to leave area: Zoe lingers to wave to Paschal and Neleh. John steps around the back of the whole group to wave bye to Paschal. Zoe and John gave precedence to their goodbyes over hugging their new group members which the other Rotus where doing. Returning to Rotu2.0 camp: Front pack: Tammy, Gabe, Vee, Rob, Sean Back pack (out-of-earshot-far): Robert, John, Zoe Robert and John shown fruit picking, Gabe and Tammy next to each other at fire. Immunity Challenge: Walk in (front to back): Gabe, Tammy, Zoe (unsure of rest) but then camera angle changes and it is Gabe, Zoe, John (?) Standing on mats: Front row: Rob, Sean, Zoe, Tammy, Gabe. Vee is behind Rob and Sean, Robert is behind Sean and Zoe. John is directly behind Gabe and leaning on Gabe. Tammy is leaning on Gabe. Around puzzle: Tammy and Gabe on left together, zoe on top, vee on bottom, robert on right Victory: Zoe hugs tammy and extends arm in Gabe's direction. Getting idol: Vee holds it up, and Gabe and Tammy are only one to reach up and touch it. ****************************** Well, that is the data with some analysis of friendships and hierarchies, where do you think the alliances are or will be? BI   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? I_AM_HE 03-23-02 1    RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? Kokoro 03-24-02 2  RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? kdzgon 03-26-02 3  RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? SurvivinDawg 03-26-02 4  RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? Swami 03-26-02 5    RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? Spidey 03-26-02 6    RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? smokedog 03-26-02 7    RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? Swami 03-27-02 8        RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? Loree 03-27-02 9            RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? gemstone 03-27-02 10                RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4? survivorscott 03-27-02 11

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-23-02, 11:03 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" first, we have seen Zoe give some support to Kathy in the first couple episodes. Gabe also has apparently said some positivethings about her. So I think Zoe, Paschal, and Gabe, probably in that approximate order are Kathy's closest Rotu friends Paschal was disgusted in Ep 1 over John and Kathy's fire spat. Not clear who he was more annoyed at, I think both, but maybe more John for being upset while Kathy, although also being bitchy, was at least being bitchy over a vital part of camp life... Second, I think people are misquoting and misinterpreting Neleh's TC quote. I don't think she was necessarily referring to those already on the Rotu mat (Gabe and Zoe). I think what she said was more along the lines of "I was bummed to see two of our strongest players walk over to the other mat." To me, if this refers to two players both joining new rotu either before or after Neleh joined Mara, I would say it means AFTER (ie, John, Tammy, Robert group). But I don't think it has to mean both were either before or after. Could be one from each set, or both of Gabe/Zoe as well. I don't know that this quote necessarily has any spoiler value as to Neleh's friendships, but if it does, I take it to mean the OPPOSITE of how it has been interpreted. If I'm wrong on this quote, correct me, but that is how i remember it   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-24-02, 11:41 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" Also, the vibe I get from the tribe members on Kathy is more along the lines of: "Kathy's loud, sure, but that's just Kathy and we respect who she is." instead of: "Kathy's a f***ing beeyotch and we're getting rid of her first vote!" ---------------------------------------- Now let us never speak of S3 again.   Top

kdzgon 60 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-26-02, 12:36 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" After looking at all the clips on SeeBS, I'm not sure I agree with some of your pecking order/friendship analyses. Robert speaks of the new fractures at Rotu, and mentions specifically how he had gotten closest with Paschal and Neleh, and then Kathy. He says Gabe & "Johnny" are struggling, too. Zoe is "..her usual, happy self...like a rock...you can always rely on her..". He then mentions how they now must begin to play the game, thus tribe members talking strategy (since the switch)- < Robert > talking to Gabriel and then Johnny "will come to " (evident it is separate conversations,), or < Robert > will talk to Zoe, or Tammy. I found the difference in language interesting - Robert & Gabe discussed, while John was "talking to" Robert. Zoe was referred to warmly and mentioned twice; Tammy's name was never mentioned in conjunction with another's, so no further info there. Also, if the Rotu 5 were truly solid, they would not yet be worried too much about "playing the game", as they have 3 (MooMoo) votes before worrying about losing "one of their own". To add to your data (mine is not as detailed, but it's a start): On the ep recaps at SeeBS, there are a number of clips - most of the individual ones are not from tv footage, so can be considered additional "peeks". The bootee's final words are always there (not from TC - another speech), and some of the challenges (& the switch). I did not count any of these clips, but instead concentrated on the individual ones. They are listed here by episode, and include if they are active (speaking) /or passive (main target of speech): Peter 0/0, NA, NA, NA Patricia 0/0, 0/0, NA, NA Hunter 2/0, 1/0, 1/1, NA Sarah 0/0, 2/0, 0/0, 1/0 Gina 0/0, 1/0, 1/0, 1/0 Sean 0/0, 2/1, 1/0, 2/1 Rob 0/1, 1/0, 0/0, 1/0 Vecepia 0/0, 0/0, 1/0, 1/0 Kathy 0/0, 1/1, 2/0, 1/0 Paschal 0/0, 0/0, 0/0, 1/0 Neleh 0/0, 0/0, 0/0, 1/0 John 0/0, 0/0, 0/2, 1/0 Robert 0/0, 1/0, 0/0, 1/0 Tammy 0/0, 1/0, 0/0, 0/0 Zoe 1/0, 0/0, 0/0, 0/0 Gabe 0/0, 0/0, 0/0, 0/0 I have not had time to analyze the group clips or the "bit players" in the other speeches, although I come away with a general sense that the same people are more prominent there, too - Hunter, Sarah, Sean, Kathy, to a lesser extent Rob, Gina, even less John, Vee, Robert, Paschal/Neleh, Gabe, Tammy, Zoe. I found it interesting that Gabe has neither spoken nor been spoken about. Tammy & Zoe started things off, but have "faded" back. A few others may be beginning to have their story told, and have picked up here, too, such as John, Robert & perhaps Vee. There are some pics, too, but I do not know if there is a pattern yet. (It does appear that the individual photos may foreshadow the prominent players in the next episode, but it is a bit early to confirm yet.) Hope that adding this to your info helps~   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-26-02, 02:54 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" One thing I didn't see mentioned: On their "nature hike", as Gina looked back for Neleh and Paschal (and Sarah), Kathy said something like "Leave 'em!" and turned and started up again. Kathy sounded and looked absolutely disgusted with Neleh and Paschal for not keeping up. Gina looked a bit stunned at Kathy's bitterness, and momentarily hesitated whether to keep going with Kathy or wait for the others. I found this to be a surprising but telling development. While Gina has found some reasons to bond with Kathy (same area of studies in school, both workerbees), I don't see ANY indication (except common Rotu heritage and loyaltY) that Neleh and Paschal are close to or allied with Kathy. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-26-02, 09:08 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" Wow, big idiot! Majorly detailed analysis! Lots of interesting details, but I'm not sure what to make of it all. We see only 42 minutes or so out of 3 days worth of action (and I know you know that.) MB is just not giving us much this time. I have a different take on the Rotu alliances, based on my reading of last week's (Ep 4) IC. I think Kathy threw the IC & gave immunity to Rotu. I just watched my tape again, and I still see her throwing it. In the first 5 or so seconds, neither tribe goes out super hard. It's like each is giving the other room to grab the ball if they need it. And very quickly Gabe grabs the ball & runs barking fast, urgent instructions. And Kathy, bossy Kathy, emotional & controlling Kathy, who has no problems telling other people exactly what to do--doesn't. Instead of taking charge with specific instructions, like when she told Rotu exactly how to turn over rocks, Kathy gives vague directs--"work on that eye there" (waves vaguely down at tapestry.) Boss kathy would have said 'Sarah! Grab the third matt-not that one! The third one! Now pull it towards you! Neleh! Paschal! Etc., etc.! But she doesn't really try. Everytime it seemed like they made the slightest progress, Kathy stops them dead by repeating "You know, I think we have it upside down." "We need to start again." I don't think this was an accident. I think Kathy deliberately threw the IC when she perceived that Rotu really wanted it. Did no one else get this impression? Throwing the IC thus shows at least 2 things. First, Kathy is very attuned to the needs of Rotu, specifically Gabe and perhaps others working on the tapestry (Zoe, Tammy, Robert & Vee were others). She works in alliance with them to get the Rotu win. Who is she most allied with? Second, Gabriel, who was leading the IC charge, felt insecure enough that he wanted the win. I can speculate that the reason for this is that he (or other Rotu) were unsure of their own safety if they went to TC. Remember, if only 2 of original Rotu decided to vote with 3 ex-Mara, they could topple anyone at Rotu. And still have a Rotu majority next time. Rotuans would be quite justified in thinking that the ex-Mara would vote off a strong male based on their previous boots. I'm not sure what the alliances are/were in Rotu, but I think they were not firm enough that any of the power players on Rotu (Gabe, Zoe & John?) were willing to risk TC at that point. This also implies that at least initially the ex-Mara were 'shopping around' for alliances, not just loafing on the beach. Remmeber, we were shown them working the first few days. There is probably more strategy going on in merging those 8 than we have been led to believe. Sorry to jump into your 'scientific' post with my hunches & speculations, but I've been looking for a place to put this observation for a couple of days now, without starting another thread, and this is the best fit. Swami   Top

Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-26-02, 10:11 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" Swami, super interesting take on Kathy at the IC. Personally, I just thought she doesn't know how to lead, resorting once again to abrasiveness and impatience. But she may be way more clever than we think... I did notice they all just stood around a lot and didn't appear to really be trying. Can't remember if Gina was trying or not but she couldn't do it herself and Sara was as usual a total waste of space. They all could have wanted Sara gone soooo badly. Maybe the original love tribe was so tight, they all made a pact in anticipation of the switch to keep Rotu in control of both reshuffled tribes. But I don't get how new MooMoo dumping the challenge (like it was that hard) would make any difference. Possibly when Gabe saw how inept Kathy & Co. were, he realized they couldn't possibly throw it without just plain sitting down, and he barrelled ahead, figuring they would just get rid of Gina or Funbags. And then Kathy realized they were toast, so why bother, they can get rid of The-one-who-doesn't-participate. Either way, I think the Original Rotu 8 are all pretty tight and know that whatever happens, they will all make the jury at this point, if Rout just throws one of the next two. Or, better yet, Gabe, et al. figure, win out, get rid of Gina AND Kathy and then make short work of the other "outsiders" after the merge. The Lazy lads are simply too dumb to win any brain challenges and no way Sean will be able to summon the ambition to save his own butt. (It would be cool, though, if Vee pulled a Kelly W. by sweeping a bunch of ICs. I like her.)   Top

smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 03-26-02, 10:36 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" >I'm not sure what the alliances are/were in Rotu, but I think they were not firm enough that any of the power players on Rotu (Gabe, Zoe & John?) were willing to risk TC at that point. Why would Kathy (in a confessional) say that she thinks Rotu might throw the challenge? I think this means that she was NOT planning to go to TC. I think her team losing is a result of them just being a horrible, hideous, poor excuse for a tribe, as well as the Rotu 'power players' avoiding tribal council as long as possible in order to see how everything shakes out, and who is left in the game at that point. I do agree with your point that we will see Gabe, Zoe, John, or others turn on each other before the jury selection starts in order to keep those strong players from influencing the outcome of the game, either by being strong IC threats or bitter jurors.   Top

Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-27-02, 10:58 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" I don't get how new MooMoo dumping the challenge (like it was that hard) would make any difference. Spidey, Mara dumping the challenge gives Rotu power players 3 more days to psych out their new tribe, to be sure that there is no chance of a surprise alliance of convenience of some rotu with the ex-Mara which would result in a TrueRotu getting the boot. Rotu's alliances have not yet been thru the crucible of fire at TC, so they are not yet tried & true alliances. If a Rotu power player was suspicious, they would sure want more time to figure out the new inter-personal dynamics of their large tribe, and be sure. Smokedog, Kathy's confessional shows that throwing an IC if conditions warranted it has likely been discussed at Rotu. Remember, these guys supposedly saw/know of the S3 switch. Kathy saying Rotu would throw it is an example of dramatic irony because she's the one who actually does it. Swami   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-27-02, 01:37 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" If Rotu shows up for a challenge looking all happy and close I think it would start to gnaw at Kathy, Pappy and Neleh. They may wonder if some of the old Maraamu are bonding with Rotu and they may be in big trouble when they merge. It could make Neleh and Pappy realize they may be safer to have Gina with them than Kathy who has caused some disharmony in the tribe. Neleh and Pappy don't want to be considered close with Kathy when they merge back with the Rotus. This is a reason I think Kathy goes first if Maraamu goes to TC.   Top

gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-27-02, 01:58 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" Kathy also said that she thought Rotu would throw the challenge if they did not like the ones that came over. They did not even attempt to lose and if they do the same in episode 5, then this may put a real scare into Neleh, Pascal and Kathy. They may also wonder if Gina was lying about Rob, Vee and Sean so they may not trust her.   Top

survivorscott 2191 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 03-27-02, 04:22 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Rotu Alliances revealed in Ep4?" i think they couldn't help but win. Did you see how unorganized Paschal's Angels were?   Top

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