Thanks ICB, great job! I've been out of town for a while and been scrambling to get caught up. Here's some additional thoughts that I've tried to summarize...The most likely targets for EP3 seem to be:
Maraamu:
Sarah
Hunter
Gina
Rotu:
Kathy
Robert
Let’s look at some of the theories…
The CBS Poll Theory:
During S3 the CBS Poll and website were used regularly to direct the general viewing audience’s attention away from the Bootee that week. So far in S4, the CBS Poll has been general in nature, but the “Interesting Stat” section has featured information about individual contestants. Last week it featured Kathy, to draw attention away from last weeks boot victim, Patricia. This week it features Hunter and Sarah…
“Interesting Stats:
Everyone Loves a Leader: Hunter Ellis, Maraamu's leader, climbed the popularity charts from Number 8 last week to Number 1 this week. Sarah Jones plummeted from Number 1 to Number 14.”.
…as the theory goes, we can assume that means Hunter and Sarah are safe this week.
The OFG Theory:
The theory states ( I know, because I originally coined the name for Outfrontgirl’s brilliant observation ) that the week’s boot victim is shown prominently in the previews for that week(other than challenges) and those not shown are safe.
Not shown in the previews and therefore safe this week…Sean(Maraamu) and Zoe, Gabe, Paschal (Rotu).
The No-No Theory
Several contestants have been reported to come back fron the Marquesas with evidence of unhealed bug bites. We have seen photograhic evidence of the bites and heard comments about their painfulness. The theory states that those contestants who remain on the island as contestants or jurors will not be able to avoid the bug bites. Those who come back without them probably left the island for Australia or New Zealand as part of the pre-jury boot group (EP1-EP7), where their bites would have had a chance to heal. Evidence of bug bites is a good indicator of at least making it to EP8.
From the Orange County Register regarding Sarah we have "…Jones came back from "Survivor" starving for food and sporting plenty of mosquito bites, giving the impression that she had lasted awhile in the quest for the $1 million grand prize…”
From the SS Mess regarding Kathy we have “…"One of the other players (I forget her name, but she's a real estate person) is from right near me. According to some people who know her, she came back having lost 26 lbs, and was still covered with bugbites. Could this mean she made it most of the way???"
Conclusion: Sarah and Kathy come back with bug bites, so they make it at least to the jury.
The Weight Loss Theory
The theory states that those contestants who return displaying “significant weight loss” (20lbs. or greater, depending on body type) are likely to make it to the merge or beyond. (Dr.Carl from S3 was the exception to the rule)
From Wanda on E! we have “…Hunter slimmed down to a fraction of his former self before returning home to San Diego…”
From the Orange County Register we have "…Jones came back from "Survivor" starving for food and sporting plenty of mosquito bites, giving the impression that she had lasted awhile in the quest for the $1 million grand prize…”
From the SS Mess we have “…"One of the other players (I forget her name, but she's a real estate person) is from right near me. According to some people who know her, she came back having lost 26 lbs, and was still covered with bugbites. Could this mean she made it most of the way???"
Conclusion: Hunter, Sarah and Kathy last a while longer.
The Face Time Theory
This theory states that a lack of “face time” on camera, especially in the early stages of the game, is a good indicator that they are safe until their character is developed and their “story has been told”.
A “spike” in face time, in an episode is usually an indication that a character may be approaching their final chapter in the story. Sometimes the “spike” occurs in the same episode as their boot, sometimes it precedes it by an episode.
MB is the storyteller. Early in the game he also develops the main characters who we will see throughout the show. The problem comes when we try to discern between early boot face time, and main character development face time.
Hunter, Sarah, Sean, Rob and Kathy were developed from the beginning as the main characters. They all got major face time early on and it appears that they will continue to. Peter got his “spike” in face time in EP1 and Patricia had a spike in EP2.
From the previews it appears that Robert will get his spike in EP3, foot injury, “no pain, no gain”, kissing Kathy, etc.
Conclusion: Robert looks like he will have a face time spike during EP3. His story may be short.
CBS Previews
The promo for this week shows Hunter and Gina with the moon as a backdrop. They are cropped off to the side, symbolic of no longer in control. Rob is shown standing boldly, with arms crossed, moon directly behind him, with his image centered in the frame, and now clearly in charge…
“One castaway dubs himself "the Godfather" and works to proceed accordingly…”
Rob dubs himself “the Godfather” and takes control of the family away from Hunter. Sarah does not like the fact that Hunter and Gina voted for her and confronts Hunter about it.
Last week we saw a handshake between Sean and Rob, but MB edited out the conversation leading up to it. When MB reveals a strategy in the game it rarely succeeds, but when it is hidden it usually works. Rob and Sean have an agreement, so Hunter and Gina are vulnerable if Maraamu go to tribal council.
Conclusion: The Rob/Sarah Sean /Vesepia alliance is safe for EP3.
“No Pain, No Gain”
The previews for EP3 show the Rotu tribe plagued by injuries:
“…Injuries plague a tribe, which employs a remedy you won't believe…”
John’s Urchin sting is easily remedied, but Roberts foot/toe injury appears to be a more serious matter. While it hasn’t been mentioned, Robert has been shown laying around, not feeling well, sitting out a challenge, complaining about needing protein. One more injury to his foot will makeit difficult for him to fetch water, gather food, and compete in challenges. Robert has become a liability.
Tammy appears concerned as she is shown speaking to the camera saying,
“Things can change like that (snapping fingers) out here…”
Reading between the lines…they lost the IC and must go to TC…what was the love tribe, is now a tribe in pain, having to make a difficult decision. What a few days ago would have been an easy decision to vote out Kathy, is now more difficult due to Roberts inury and continued uselessness.
It may be a painful decision to vote out Robert over Kathy, but, “no pain, no gain”.
Conclusion: Robert has replaced Kathy as the prime targets if Rotu goes to TC.
To Summarize:
Maraamu:
Sarah: Safe…Came back starving, bug bites, protected by “the godfather” Rob/Sean alliance. CBS Poll Theory.
Hunter: Safe…Weight Loss Theory, CBS Poll Theory, Game Logic: Keep the strong.
Gina: Target…Only alliance is with Hunter, Voted against Sarah, no physical challenge contribution, no weight loss reports. OFG Theory.
Rotu:
Kathy: Safe…Significant weight loss report, bug bites, drop in face time for EP3,
Robert: Target…OFG Theory, Face Time spike for EP3, Injury/ continued illness, Tammy’s “…things can change…” comment. No significant weight loss reports.
Depending on IC...
Maraamu: votes out Gina
Rotu: votes out Robert
Krautboy
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) means she's probably safe.
