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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-06-02, 02:30 AM (EST) "***State of the Spoiling, Week Two***" LAST EDITED ON 03-06-02 AT 02:40 AM (EST) Just when you thought it was safe to venture onto the boards... it's time for Week Two So the Vote Thread has been posted, and you're asking me, "sleeeve... how should I vote?"... well stop asking that! I'm not even sure how I'm gonna vote yet... but here's a summary of what our board is thinking: From Last Week Peter was voted out in episode one, and had quite a bit to say: His Early Show interview is here. His live chat is here. It is interesting to note: 1) All contestants were aware of the switch. 2) Peter knew he was going to be voted out. 3) There was a voting bloc of 5 that voted him out... allied, at least at the time. 4) Vecepia and Sean comforted him. 5) Rob and Sarah are in "love" 6) Gina and Hunter are falling in love Screen time in the previous episode can sometimes predict the bootee... Check out some thoughts on the subject, here. (This could mean that Robert, Tammy, Paschal, Neleh, and Vecepia, for starters, are safe next week... but don't forget... the eventual winner has always been shown to some extent in the opening Ep, too... so it also looks bad for long-range plans for these five... at least for now.) Preview for Episode Two: Here's where we might try to apply OFG's preview theory, which simply says "the survivor to be booted will be featured in the preview in a non-negative way." Basically this theory suggests that, for the average audience, MB tries to paint a picture that someone else will be booted, but at the same time remind the audience that the actual bootee is still in the game. If I remember correctly, this theory worked for 10 of 12 boot-episodes of S3... is it still working??? Well... here's the previews: CBS Preview #1 CBS Preview #2 It appears that the challenges will be some sort of diving/rowing/water challenge (RC????) and possibly a gross food (snail) challenge (IC???). And just what is the food that Kathy finds?? An octopus? A fish? A pizza? It could be anything... check out what others are thinking, here. Alliances Where are they? Are they hidden, or in plain sight? Will they change?? Shakes believes there is a Couples Alliance, but others disagree, and think it was a one-time union to vote out Peter. More on the possible Alliance of 5. Sean and Vecepia may also be in an alliance. (Let's see... carry the one, squareroot of 7... yup, highly probable.) Or maybe there are No Alliances, yet... in which case this entire section was a complete waste of my time . So who's getting voted out??? Based on his calendar, Krautboy believes that Rotu may go to tribal council, next. idiotcowboy ties all the spoilers together to explain how Kathy will be next to go. But Dave points out that Vecepia is another possible candidate. Other possible bootees include Patricia and Sarah, who both recieved votes last week... and... well... any of the other 11 contestants that I didn't mention. The board seems to be moving toward a Kathy consensus, but it's not too late to challenge that line of thinking in this thread (or any thread referenced in this post). In other news: NightScribe speculates on the role of the Alpha Male... who are they, and how will the power struggle play out? There can be only one Survivor, but first, there can be only one Alpha Male... the eventual leader has either won in the past (Richard), or one of his allies has (Tina/Colby, Ethan/Lex). For those of you that believe in the various Opening Credit theories, Bungler has vidcapped the credits, and there is quite a bit of discussion... I won't try to summarize it all, because there are lots of different theories out there. Add your own, here. Dawg explains his Hollow theory... that actually has quite a bit of substance to it. Basically, here's the summary: MB tries to lead us away from the truth. The secret is to ignore the hype, because the obvious is usually right. Previous votes will not be used to break ties, but they still may still affect the game. GT has posted this week's CBS EyeMail, featuring Sean. Why is this important??? Well... last season, they featured nearly all the post-merge bootees before their respective boots, but only a few of the pre-merge ones. This means that, since Sean and Patricia have been featured so far, they may be safe... but once we hit the merge, the reverse is true... you're only a candidate for boot if you've headlined the EyeMail. GT... would you be willing to start a thread containing the first two EyeMails, and to post the new one to it each week??? Thanks! But sleeeve... why didn't you summarize my thread??? I posted it all by myself!!! I ignored all the redundant threads. If there's already a thread discussing your topic, we don't need another one. If you need a reminder about the guidelines, then please click here. Remember... we're a fun-loving, speculation-overdosing bunch, and we'd love to hear what you have to say... but try to tell us when we're reading related information... you don't need your own thread for your opinion to count . Shameless Plug section Go read SurvivinDawg's fabulous summary of Episode One. Think you've got next week figured out, play the SB's own Spoiler Island Fantasy Pick 'em Game. Don't know what's gonna happen, but you know who's NOT going anywhere? Well, play Lionchow's Anti-Bootee Contest. Are you inside the minds of the players already (or do you just wanna prove you're the best spoiler ever)? Go enter our PTTE Contest, and predict the remainder of the season. Good luck in the vote, everyone!!! As always, this thread is for discussion purposes, as we move toward final concensus in the remaining 2 days until episode two. If you believe that I missed your theory (or just have more to say), go ahead and hit reply... have fun! You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Quick clarification and question SherpaDave 03-06-02 1    RE: Quick clarification and questio... SurvivinDawg 03-06-02 3  RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week ... PepeLePew13 03-06-02 2  RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week ... PhillyBrat 03-06-02 4    RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week ... ivoryElephant 03-06-02 5  RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week ... dabo 03-06-02 6    RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week ... sleeeve 03-06-02 7  RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week ... SurvivaBear 03-06-02 8  Clarifying OFG theory Outfrontgirl 03-07-02 9  RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week ... George Tirebiter 03-07-02 10

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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-06-02, 05:17 AM (EST) 1. "Quick clarification and question" I do so love when the SOS comes out. Awesome job as always, tripoli. I did want to clarify one thing quickly, though, and also raise a question. Clarification: I do think Vecepia's the best candidate from Maraamu to be booted, but I think Rotu is more likely to go to TC this week. Look for a possible V boot in ep3 or ep4. Question: Something occurred to me as I was watching the very beginning of ep1. I haven't seen anyone mention it, but maybe it's in a thread that I missed. Did anyone happen to catch whose face was being shown when the narration stated that one will be the ultimate survivor (or words to that effect)? It seems to me that MB would love to plant the idea of that person in our heads (since in past seasons he's talked about the winner being shown in some way in ep1). I don't think he'd actually give us the winner, but I do think he'd highlight someone who stays in the game for a while. It just strikes me as the sort of red herring he'd take glee in setting up. I'd hate to disappoint him by not even noticing it. So... I didn't know the survivors well enough at that point in the show to know who it was. I think possibly Zoe. Any help? Song: Rob the Builder! Rob: Can I touch them? Song: Rob the Builder! Sarah: Yes, you can! Criminals From the Neck Up   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-06-02, 08:40 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Quick clarification and question" LAST EDITED ON 03-06-02 AT 08:41 AM (EST) Did anyone happen to catch whose face was being shown when the narration stated that one will be the ultimate survivor (or words to that effect)? Yes, J.P. went through his "16 contestants... one survivor" spiel while standing at the prow of the ship. Most prominently standing next to him was Goldilocks(Gabriel). At that time, however, there is no way even MB could know how far into the game Goldilocks was going to go, so I see no predictive value there. As to the opening credits, I don't remember exactly what transpired before, during and after the words "1 survivor" was shown. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-06-02, 08:38 AM (EST) 2. "RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week Two***" Great stuff as always, eee! It's for weeks such as this one that the SOTS is truly helpful when we're still mostly in the dark about who the potential candidate for bootee could be. Let's not forget that S3, almost no one thought Jessie could be booted here in ep.2 (or Carl in ep.3) so we've got to expand our thinking a little bit and not just focus on the most obvious candidates. >(This could mean that Robert, Tammy, Paschal, Neleh, and >Vecepia, for starters, are safe next week... but don't >forget... the eventual winner has always been shown to some >extent in the opening Ep, too... so it also looks bad for >long-range plans for these five... at least for now.) Yes, Dicque was very prominent in the first Survivor and Ethan was noticable in the last season, but actually, Tina was quite invisible in the first episode of S2. Still... a great job with the SOTS. Still no idea who is the likely bootee but I may have to go with Kathy as my early vote due to her abrasiveness with other tribemates and OFG's theory with her being shown prominently on the preview but not so much in a negative way.   Top

PhillyBrat 172 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-06-02, 09:08 AM (EST) 4. "RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week Two***" Sleeeve you rock! You did a great job summarizing what was said during the week. And you did this in a very clever and creative way. Props to you. You took everyone's opinion and made it into a very productive piece. I hope to see more Summeries in the future. 1 Down 15 to go..   Top

ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 03-06-02, 11:10 AM (EST) 5. "RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week Two***" I noticed on some boards, people were asking "wheres the witch?" MB or JP or said there was a definate villian. I think the villian is Kathy. She gets John booted. Remember last season whenever someone bragged about how far they would go they were voted off soon after. Silas "i am shooting for the stars, I am gonna win" Lex"The moneys mine, I am taking it and I am runnin with it dammit" And here is a quote by John in the previews John: If I catch a pig I might as well set my table at the final four.(insert pics of John alone in private interview shots) There is always a surprise boot and I think it will be this week. Or I could be dead wrong. Who knows. "I know I don't know you, and you're probably not what you seem, but I sure would like to find out so why don't you climb down of that TV screen" Gina Crews, the Sole Survivor!   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-06-02, 11:42 AM (EST) 6. "RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week Two***" Great work, sleeeve, thanks mondo. Am I to take it from the lack of a shameless plug that Gufu Award Week 1 is redundant or something? Just teasin', natch, you had to draw the line somewhere, no prob, I understand, no really it's okay, honestly ... "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-06-02, 06:03 PM (EST) 7. "RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week Two***" Sorry, dabo... I only summarized the stuff on the spoilers board . The gufu award, also deserves a shameless plug, so thanks for sticking it in You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

SurvivaBear 2634 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 03-06-02, 07:53 PM (EST) 8. "RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week Two***" Thanks so much sleeeve! I will wait for this SOS next time before over-anxiously voting. You did an excellent job of laying out all the prevalent theories and the links are quite handy. Thanks again. "Destined for Greatness!"   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-07-02, 02:28 PM (EST) 9. "Clarifying OFG theory" While I think it's nice of everyone to give me my own theory, I need to clarify that the theory being quoted as mine is NOT what I observed and has taken on its own life... I tried several times in S3 to clarify this with no success. Maybe this time will work, since it's in the SOTS thread. >>OFG's preview theory, which simply says "the survivor to be booted will be featured in the preview in a non-negative way." Basically this theory suggests that, for the average audience, MB tries to paint a picture that someone else will be booted, but at the same time remind the audience that the actual bootee is still in the game" sleeeve, this is an accurate summary of how the board has picked up and mutated my original thoughts, but it is not accurately attributed to me... it's a board theory at this point, and in fact I do not agree with it or I wouldn't say anything. All I observed was as follows: In the early part of the game especially, not all the contestants will appear in one of the previews, but the bootee will be shown, and not just as a face in the group, but with at least a head-shot or full frame of them. I said the bootee's appearance may not ALWAYS be in a scene that points to them as bootee, but sometimes--primarily in the case of characters with strong, clashing personalities--they ARE indeed shown saying or doing something controversial. Shining examples of the latter case: Kimmi's fight with Alicia; Jerri whining about how she wanted Colby for the RC ("fair" quote); Frank going off about liberals; Diane taking the map; Linda saying Thank You; Lindsey freaking about prior votes revealed; Tom refusing to reaffirm his alliance with Lex (some part of that confrontation). My "theory"--really just an observation--is not and never was about using misdirection to point to someone else. Sometimes he does, sometimes not. I think the Not applies mostly to the characters who are going to act controversially; Burnett WANTS to focus on them in the preview to build up the ratings. He wanted to use the Alicia Kimmi fight to draw an audience, and that was more important than hiding the bootee! My actual simple theory: I merely observed that Burnett did not take misdirection so far as to HIDE the bootee by making them INVISIBLE in the previews--that he plays "fair" to that extent. I hope this lays to rest the misquotes of the OFG theory. And I certainly hope that anyone who quoted it differently doesn't take it that I'm criticizing them--it happens all the time on the board that things "evolve" through passing through various posts. But since I'm here and I keep seeing my name attached to something I don't believe and didn't say... btw, I voted for Patricia, who is featured prominently AND in a negative light, and I consider this to work fine for my theory that people with difficult personalities are often previewed as pissing people off the episode they get booted. well there you have it. Now tweak away, but put someone else's name on the variations ... PS Because the boards are read regularly by MB employees, I figure any publicly posted working theory has a short shelf-life. "Oh, they have the polls and the previews figured out to work this way? Well, let's throw a spanner in the works and do a switch!" I believe there is some response to our successful spoiling, so I don't believe any theory will continue to hold true through multiple seasons, unless it's something that works too well for the show and the general public for the producers to change it.   Top

George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-07-02, 02:54 PM (EST) 10. "RE: ***State of the Spoiling, Week Two***" >GT... would you be willing to start a thread containing the first two EyeMails, and to post the new one to it each week??? Thanks! Of course I will, sleeevie! I had the impression that the value of this was mixed, so I didn't give it its own thread this week--and was surprised when Koko commented on having looked for it. I will even devote a legal pad to this (plumbing the depths of the TRULY anal Spoilers, à la Dalton ) so that I'm sure to list the bootees correctly each time. The SOTS just gets better, BTW--having been on the road for a couple days and struggling to catch up, I really appreciate the links AND the little synopses of the high points! GT   Top

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