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"Peter is first out, the Visual Proof"
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 00:20 AM (EST)
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"Peter is first out, the Visual Proof"
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-02 AT 10:33 PM (EST)

***Edited to correct the tribe names, that were reversed on the initial post***

I have taken the pics from the Vidcaps -- The First Challenge thresd and added sequence and commentary that hopefully will prove visually that Pete is the first to go. (Thanks Bungler Excellent work as always)

First off proof that the line pics are from the 2nd episode and not the first. John is the key here.

Here we have the Maraamu minus someone (Peter or Gina)

Here we have Rotu with everyone accounted for. (we think)

Here is a close up of Jeffy explaining the second challenge and John (only guy other than Jeff pictured) with a mighty thick beard

Finally here is the picture of John at the canoe challenge with no beard which visually proves several day have elapsed.

Ok so now we can all agree that the conga line pictures must be from the 2nd episode not the first. So lets examine them more closely.

Let's take the Rotu first, here is the Bungler pic with his projected names on it. It is from a distance so it's a little difficult to tell who is who, but it does appear clear that Gabe and Robert are the back two. Add that to the Beard picture (above) where we can map the cloths of Kathy, Neleh, Tammy, and John. Leaving us only Paschal and Zoe who in the picture are labled near at the bottom and are least clearly recongnizable. The person labled as Pashcal certainly looks correct based on what we have always seen him wearing. So the only thing left to question is if what we think is Zoe's head really Zoe's head, and not something else.

I have blown up that particular shot (for what it is worth). If you look close and granted it is not the greatest picture it looks like two eyes and a billed hat. The bill probably darker and the crown lighter.

Here is a picture of Zoe from the canoe challenge, wearing a hat that matches exactly the Rotu conga line photo.

With Zoe, and everyone on Rotu being accounted for, we now have visual proof of a Maraamu loss in episode 1.

Ok, on to the hard part. The Maraamu tribe and their missing person. I have included all of the pictures from the E2 that we have so we can conclusively ID who is for sure in the distance group shot.

Sarah, Sean, and tall guy (Rob)

Vee, Hunter and Pat

Now the hard part, the conga line from front to back Sarah-Vee-Sean-Rob (baseball hat proves it's him not Pete)-Hunter-Pat-???

So now we have proof Gina or Pete is missing. So which one is it in the long pants at the end of the conga line? The key here is Pat. She is the person walking closest to the mystery person, and although the terain is obviously not even I think we can tell who it is if we look at other shot where the 3 people have been together.

First off the group shot. Gina and Pete are standing next to each other dead center of the picture on the back row (and labled).

Next a picture of Pat with Pete standing behind to the right.

Finally a picture of Pat with Gina standing behind her

It sure looks to me that Pete would tower over Pat if it was him behind, since whoever it is doesn't... Pete must be the first evictee.

-ICB

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Peter is first out, the Visual ... dabo 02-09-02 1
 Does Bungler Have Another Clip? IceCat 02-09-02 2
   RE: Does Bungler Have Another Clip? idiotcowboy 02-09-02 3
       RE: Does Bungler Have Another Clip? Tatina 02-09-02 4
           RE: Does Bungler Have Another Clip? idiotcowboy 02-09-02 5
               RE: Does Bungler Have Another Clip? Kokoro 02-09-02 6
                   What TheGrinch 02-09-02 8
               RE: Does Bungler Have Another Clip? Tatina 02-10-02 14
 Devil's Advocate... IceCat 02-09-02 7
   RE: Devil's Advocate... SurvivorBlows 02-09-02 9
       RE: Devil's Advocate... Java 02-09-02 13
 Wrong tribe names Rattlehead 02-09-02 10
   Rattlehead is Correct, Wrong Tribe ... idiotcowboy 02-09-02 11
 RE: Peter is first out, the Visual ... Java 02-09-02 12
 Zoe Hat and John Pic from Beginning Outfrontgirl 02-10-02 15
   RE: Zoe Hat and John Pic from Begin... Loree 02-10-02 16
       RE: Zoe Hat and John Pic from Begin... ivoryElephant 02-10-02 17
   paschal John Pic from Beginning erikman 02-10-02 18
       RE: paschal John Pic Outfrontgirl 02-11-02 19
   challenge gaps dabo 02-12-02 22
 Rotu win lroy 02-11-02 20
   RE: Rotu win TheWanderer 02-11-02 21
 RE: Peter is first out, the Visual ... bondt007 02-12-02 23
 Rotu Celebration Swim Krautboy 02-13-02 24
 I See Peter!! tahitigal 02-13-02 25
   And a newbie shall lead them. . . George Tirebiter 02-13-02 26
       RE: And a newbie shall lead them. .... dabo 02-13-02 28
       RE: And a newbie shall lead them. .... MakeItStop 02-13-02 30
   I think not. idiotcowboy 02-13-02 27
       RE: I think not. dabo 02-13-02 29
           RE: I think not. George Tirebiter 02-13-02 31
               RE: I think not. erikman 02-13-02 32
               good catch, but... weltek 02-13-02 33
       RE: It's a motion blur. Rattlehead 02-13-02 34
       RE: I think not. true 02-13-02 35
 The case for Gina being the first o... thebes 02-15-02 36
   RE: The case for Gina being the fir... Rose Red 02-15-02 37
 Devils Advocate Again... IceCat 02-28-02 38

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 00:49 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Peter is first out, the Visual Proof"
Great work, ICB, you seem to have nailed it. I have to wonder why Gina would be the only one wearing long pants; perhaps it is the nature guide in her, since they haven't any insect repellant available other than a layer of cloth.
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 00:50 AM (EST)
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2. "Does Bungler Have Another Clip?"
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-02 AT 00:51 AM (EST)

It would be helpful if Bungler could grab a few more frames closer to the end of this clip:

Bungler got some great clips of the egg breaking challenge last season that were so close to the end of the sequence that portions of the first frame of the next sequence were visible.

The reason that I ask is that I am not convinced that anyone is neccessarily missing from that clip. Someone else could be following along behing slightly out of frame. Here's an example where I have added the dotted green outline of an additional person. I have used the same spacing (red lines) as that between the last two visible people :

If Bungler could grab us a few more frames, we might see the missing person enter the frame.

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 02:03 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Does Bungler Have Another Clip?"
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-02 AT 10:43 PM (EST)

*** Edited to fix the tribe names ***

The problem is I am convinced that this must be from episode 2 not episode 1. Sure there could be another person there, but if there was then someone has to be missing somewhere, and I think there is more evidence to support 8 Rotu's right now than there is to support 8 Maraamu's.

-ICB

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Tatina 112 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 07:46 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Does Bungler Have Another Clip?"
The clothing the seven people in the picture can't be really placed in any situation all of them are walking together in the first episode.

There is pictoral evidence in the other sites that if Peter is indeed behind Gina, he would be much behind. Now, in all the proven episode one pictures Peter is walking AHEAD, but not really apart from the rest of the tribe.

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 10:31 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Does Bungler Have Another Clip?"
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-02 AT 10:45 PM (EST)

*** Edited to fix the tribe names ***

Hi Tatina,

>The clothing the seven people in the picture
>can't be really placed in any situation all
>of them are walking together in the first episode

I'm not sure what your saying here, but it is clear from the cloths people are wearing that we have two distinct timeframe shots on at the beach with the canoe race. The other in a field where the people are walking in a line of sorts. Now you could make the argument that line pics come in Ep1 before the challenge, except for this picture. Which clearly shows John with lots of facial hair.

Also note the cloths of the four people pictured here are the same as the walk picture here.

Clearly the walk pics are from E2 not E1, and once you get past that, the only question is who is missing and where. Don't focus on the possibility that someone is out of picture in the Maraamu line... focus on the Rotu tribe picture that shows no one missing!

-ICB

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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 10:52 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Does Bungler Have Another Clip?"
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-02 AT 06:51 PM (EST)

EDIT: lol I guess I missed the obvious then ^-^;;

----------------------------------------

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TheGrinch 1 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 01:42 PM (EST)
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8. "What"
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-02 AT 01:44 PM (EST)

is on his shoulder I believe isn't anything. I think it is Tammy's shoulder.

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Tatina 112 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-02, 05:41 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Does Bungler Have Another Clip?"
I know I wasn't very clear there, I was very much in hurry but wanted desperately comment.... Anyway, nice catch here, idiotcowboy! It's so simple I didn't even think of it, even though I was pretty certain about the Rotu win in the first IC based on much more circumstancial evidence.

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 01:00 PM (EST)
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7. "Devil's Advocate..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-10-02 AT 06:10 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 02-10-02 AT 06:01 AM (EST)

A lot hinges on the apparent difference in beard growth for John show in these two pictures:





I feel it's necessary to point out a number of key differences between these two caps. As one can see, they were taken from different TV shows (E! and ET). From a video signal and compositional analysis perspective, the two caps are drastically different.

The E! capture is taken in a much tighter shot. John's head is three times taller in this shot than the ET shot.

The E! shot is over exposed. I suspect that the videographer had some trouble shooting the faces in the foreground with the bright water in the background and the editor brought the brightness level up in post production. It had the effect of washing out the color saturation in the video.

John is not wearing a buff in the E! shot and is wearing a buff in the ET shot.

The net effect of the above differences is to make John appear to have experienced beard growth between the two shots when he may not necessarily have.

To help illustrate this effect I've altered the E! pic so that it has similar brightness and contrast levels to the ET pic:

As you can see, the beard seems a little darker with the brightness reduced and the saturation raised to a similar level as the ET shot.

The next step is to deal with the picture size issue. Reducing the size of the E! pic so that John's head is roughly the same size as the ET pic produces the following result:

The beard growth is starting to look very similar. The only thing that is different between the two shots is the lack of a buff in the E! pic. I think that the extra skin on the forehead somehow gives an impression of being more clean shaven.

This last change involves the addition of a buff to to John in the E! pic. The size is left the same as the ET pic:

Keep in mind that there are still differences that remain because the ET shot was taken with less zoom. The E! image has greater detail in it because Johnfilled a larger portion of the frame when the image was recorded in the first place.

I am going to one step further but this is a dangerous step because I am distorting the image by adding more blur as opposed to merely adjusting the brightness and contrast levels. I think that this is a valid manipulation as the ET image is drastically less sharp than the E! image:

I think that, once the image differences are compensated for, the difference in apparent beard growth is almost negligible. I could be wrong though. I think we need more caps of these key frames.


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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 02:47 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Devil's Advocate..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-02 AT 03:07 PM (EST)

Excellent work Ice, as always. I agree the beard evidence is inconclusive.

Here's what I think we can say:

1) The 7th person in the Maraamu photo is definitely Gina:

Look at the width of that person's torso and general frame. And now look at this:

And this:

There is no way that is Peter's torso, it is way too narrow to be him. In my mind the only question is whether or Peter is offscreen (as you mentioned.)

...and as far as things I'm sure of, that's about it. I'm not comfortable with the idea that this image below


...is an image of Zoe's blue/gray baseball cap (shown below)

First of all, it looks to me like a cowboy hat -- look at that lip on the left, plus another possible lip on the RIGHT SIDE. Secondly, there's zero evidence of any blue of the hat's bill. Do we have any evidence of anyone other thn Kathy having a non-baseball cap style hat?

-SB

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Java 519 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 09:24 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Devil's Advocate..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-02 AT 10:38 PM (EST)

Does everyone agree that the tall guy in the first photo is Rob? It definitely looks like him, but he must be standing on a sand dune because he is the shorter than Hunter and Peter in the second photo. Is the hill they are climbing that steep?

Also, re: the hat, here are a couple of pics from Bunglers preview vidcaps showing what I believe is Neleh wearing the hat. Since she has already been ID'd, could she have lent the hat to Zoe?


Good to the last drop!

edited to add pics

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Rattlehead 6 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 05:22 PM (EST)
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10. "Wrong tribe names"
I'm not sure if you realize it or not, but you're calling the tribes by the wrong names.
The yellow tribe with Gina and Peter is Maraamu, and the Blue tribe is Rotu.
Other than that I agree that Peter is the one missing from the picture.
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 08:02 PM (EST)
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11. "Rattlehead is Correct, Wrong Tribe Names!"
Rattlehead-

Welcome to the boards! Excellent catch, and it was completely my bad. For some reason I had them reversed in my head which is always a bad thing!

I'm still contemplating IceCat and Webby's counterpoints, not sure I agree with their arguments just yet, but they have gotten me thinking again on something I thought was pretty clear before!

Thanks again for catching my obvious mistake, and sorry I mislabled it all! I will try and fix the tribenames in my original post later tonight if I have the time.

-ICB

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Java 519 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-02, 09:11 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Peter is first out, the Visual Proof"
I think I have to go with the idea that Peter is out of the shot. Maybe something like the blindfold challenge in S2, where someone is the caller?

I can't imagine a scenario where Peter would be voted off before Patricia. No matter how annoying he may turn out to be, voting off a stronger player in favor of a weaker one is just bad strategy at this point. Unless he was very sick I can't see him as the one to go.



Good to the last drop!

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-02, 06:57 AM (EST)
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15. "Zoe Hat and John Pic from Beginning"
My admiration for all of your work on this thread!

Floppy hat
First, the floppy khaki colored hat that's coming over the rise.
I checked the photo gallery at SurvivorFever.net and I think they all got one of those hats, because Neleh, Paschal, John, and Patricia are all wearing what looks like this identical hat in separate shots. Therefore we don't have to imagine Zoe borrowing Neleh's.

I see no reason to doubt it's Zoe--as it's hardly feasible it would be someone from Mara and she's the only Rotu not in view..

I think ICB is right: focus on the fact there are 8 Rotu, then all you need to know is, does this occur after the first IC?
If not, then the Mara member could be just off frame.
If so, Peter is gone.

(2)John's beard growth

All I can say for sure about John's pic at the allegedly 2nd challenge is that he looks to have good beard progress. His upper lip has that look of coverage.

IceCat, your photo reproduction is amazing and meticulous, and casts doubt. However, here are two pics of John from camp that do have good resolution that are very clear indicators that he started out quite clean-shaven. At least they give us shots of beardless John for comparison.

Perhaps someone can put them in a timeframe, but at the very most the first challenge group shot is two days later, and maybe less.

The shots ICB calls Ep 2, with the facial hair, sure seem to show a big change. Looks like more than a couple days stubble to me. What do you all think?

Here's a second one for comparison, also needing a date, with maybe some shadow, but no real hair.

Btw, this challenge we are considering for Ep 2 is probably RC, no? I don't see Rotu walking in with the Idol--and wouldn't expect to. Point being that could be day 4 or more likely Day 5, which is only 1 or 2 days after the first IC pic.

So it would be about right to have the beard only somewhat more grown in than at the first IC/Day 3, but significantly more than Day 1 or 2--whichever we are seeing in the pics I posted above (from SFever.net).

ICB, you have done a good job of convincing me.
As for why they would lose Peter, Mara looks to me like the tribe with too many chiefs (unlike Rotu). We see pics of Gina instructing Sarah and Patricia on working with the plant life. We see Vecepia and Sean bonding. Hunter's the only qualified diver in the group.

Mara has 3 strong young males and at least 2 women who look quite strong. I think they outmatch Rotu physically and could afford to lose their older male. Unless Patricia caused them to lose, I don't see a reason to cut her.

I see the strong leader types (Sean, Gina, Hunter, Peter, at minimum) perhaps clashing in how to direct the tribe--and conflicting direction loses challenges as well or better as an industrious woman who may not be in peak form but also isn't making waves and is willing to help with assigned tasks.

This is just speculation on one scenario that could lead to booting Peter and not Patricia. Only real evidence is that confrontation scene, but that says a lot.

Lastly, in S3 we were pointed towards Diane, rightly. I understood Jeff to be saying that the first bootee gets very little face time, so they wanted to be fair and not hide them or the drama around them.

Well, does anyone see anything pointing to Patricia other than that she's sitting and working? We don't even see a shot of her looking done in. The setup is: Peter or Gina? And because it is the first bootee it is probably NOT a red herring but the real choice. Just as last season the setup was: Diane or Clarence?

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-02, 12:42 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Zoe Hat and John Pic from Beginning"
I believe they do boot Peter. The reasons could be personality. In S1 Pagong booted BB as their first. In S2 Ogakor booted Kel as their first. And in S3 Samburu booted Carl as their first. So having a team boot a man first is not unusual.
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02-10-02, 05:46 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Zoe Hat and John Pic from Beginning"
Further proof?
In my s2 edition of people magazine they had a list of the items you can bring.

You can only bring 1 t-shirt.
Gina has a gray t-shirt
and

Peters is blue
Therefore
the person that is half hidden wearing the gray tshirt cant be peter

"What a twisted web we weave when at first we practice to deceive"

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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-02, 07:01 PM (EST)
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18. "paschal John Pic from Beginning"
i wonder what john and paschal are talking about. that pic looks like an allince like tom and lex and rudy and rich. thats the best allince pic ihave seen this week
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02-11-02, 03:04 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: paschal John Pic "
Good catch, erikman!
It does indeed look like they're talking about other people in a critical manner or about an alliance. Could be either or both, as one may lead to another. Definitely seem to be conversing in a serious not-to-be-overheard manner!
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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02-12-02, 01:09 AM (EST)
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22. "challenge gaps"
The first immunity challenge traditionally happens on day 2 with Probst telling the losing tribe he will see them tomorrow at tribal council (and the winning tribe's immunity celebration is pretty much the last we see of them in episode 1). So, there can be a 2 to 3 day gap between first ic and 2nd ep rc, or 3 to 4 day gap between first ic and 2nd ep ic. Has anyone bothered to keep track or chart when the different challenges occured in the various Survivors? I know there has been some variation, but MB generally sticks with some tried and true things.
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lroy 536 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-02, 05:28 PM (EST)
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20. "Rotu win"

This was on another board with a discussion on how unhappy Tammy always seems... Two of the members, Kaptain Kuckoo & Ender, mention that she is cooking. Seems to be proof that Rotu win, because if they didn't win, what are they doing with a frying pan? If the survivors were sent out with no provisions, would they be supplied with a nice pan like that? It looks like something that would be given as a reward, which would also be a hint that Rotu may win the first reward challenge.

Sorry if this doesn't go, but i didn't know if this deserved a whole new thread.


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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-02, 05:54 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Rotu win"
I agree that Rotu wins. However, they wer provided with some items. I read an interview w/MB and he said that although they were given food provisions, they were supplied with a container for fresh water, frying pan ( and I think maybe a pot) and some other hard goods. So threfore, the frying pan is not an indicator of a win. Neither is fire. Inall the previous Survivors, the first two tasks were to:<BR>
1) build a shelter <BR>
2) make fire

We must also remember the "hunter-gatherer" mentality the tribes will have to take. Pat was pictured sitting down, as that position makes most sense when weaving/assembly palm fronds and such for a shelter roof. This is not a sign of laziness. Maybe she proved to be good at doing something. As for Peter,his bio seems strangely vague. He and his brother "own a unique wine shop and a bowling alley. In addition, he is a yoga enthusiast and works in real estate and construction."
This doesn't necesarily mean he can construct anything. Maybe he proves less useful than Pat. Although she may be the next to go from Maraamu, when they lose another IC>

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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
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02-12-02, 07:14 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Peter is first out, the Visual Proof"
What a great thread! Thanks ICB -
Here is another quick thought about where Peter is, IF he really is still there (I do agree with you all that it's Gina in the first photo behind the elbow). Following ICB's logic, if this is the second show, maybe the OTHER team lost (Rotu) and is down one person. Because of that fact, Maraamu has one more. Maybe (a) one has to "sit out" from Rotu or (b) both teams need to have someone "directing them to do something, and they are located in a differant place (maybe from where the shot is taken).

Thoughts?

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02-13-02, 02:30 AM (EST)
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24. "Rotu Celebration Swim"
ICB, Nice summary! Very clear and concise. I have to agree with your conclusions. The vidcaps point at Peter.

If we look back at the very first previews, we saw a mystery tribe swimming and jumping into a pool at the base of a waterfall. We discussed whether or not it was a challenge and finally concluded that the tribe was relaxing or celebrating victory after a challenge...

We now know that it was the Rotu Tribe, pictured swimming leisurely and relaxing after a probable IC victory, or the following day when they have a "day off",while the Maraamu Tribe most likely prepare for Tribal Council.

Krautboy

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tahitigal 10 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-02, 09:14 AM (EST)
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25. "I See Peter!!"
Hi everyone - I have been a lurker on the boards since Surv. 3. You all do a great job! If you look at the first photo of the Maraamu tribe doing the conga line, I think Peter's face is showing behind Rob (the tall guy) and to the left of Hunters face (behind Rob)!! It looks like there is a partial face there! Also, if you look at the legs, I think you will see more legs than Rob's and Hunters! It looks like they are walking up an incline at the time the photo was taken, and this is why Rob looks taller than Hunter and Peter. The last person in the line must be Gina! Does anyone else see this hidden face?
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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-02, 10:36 AM (EST)
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26. "And a newbie shall lead them. . ."
tahitigal, you DAW! I came here to link to your post on the other thread, and you'd already been here. Guess I'll just repeat my reply, instead:

I agree--it looks like 8 people are accounted for here. Back to square one?

GT

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-02, 11:00 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: And a newbie shall lead them. . ."
Good catch, tahitigirl! I'm not convinced there is a partial face visible, but it's certainly worth some scrutinization. I only see four legs for the three guys, but in the grouping you suggest that would be very possible anyway. Here's is another shot of the scene for additional perspective.

The thing to keep in mind here is that these are from video. Unfortunately, I haven't seen the video myself, but if anyone has it on tape a frame by frame scrutinization of the sequence seems to be called for.
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MakeItStop 1098 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-02, 12:21 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: And a newbie shall lead them. . ."
I hate to repeat myself, but we seem to be discussing this on two threads. The hidden male (if it's not a reflection) is too short to be Peter IMO. Also the hair looks straight and Peter has curly hair.
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-02, 11:00 AM (EST)
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27. "I think not."
Sorry but I think your wrong. There are actually two slightly different angles of this shot, one came from a Bungler vidcap the other from a Snewser vidcap. If you compare them side by side I don't see any way a third person exists between Rob and Hunter. The face your seeing in the Bungler clip is just a reflection.

-ICB

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-02, 11:32 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: I think not."
I'm inclined to think it is a reflection as well, but tahitigal is pointing to the partial face in the picture between Rob and Hunter, Peter's actual placement in the conga line would be behind Hunter and ahead of Patricia to her right. That would break the apparent zigzag of the conga line, however. Snewser's vidcap shows absolutely no evidence of Peter. Still, it's worth having someone take another look at the video, the next frame after the one Bungler provided us would probably have a wider gap between Rob and Hunter for Peter's face to appear in, though it would probably only confirm the reflection.
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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-02, 12:22 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: I think not."
I agree it calls for closer inspection and extra vantage points, but in blowing up the second pic, it still looks like a different face to me. . . A reflection? Why would it be looking a totally different direction than the adjacent faces (that eye has a nose to the right of it)? And the skin tone and hair color are much different. And I've highlighted something less defined--the outline of clothing and leg, which don't correspond to the guy's in front of it.

GT

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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-02, 01:48 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: I think not."
it looks like a branch of a palm tree to me
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02-13-02, 06:15 PM (EST)
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33. "good catch, but..."
I still think there is something phoney about this picture. Are we sure one of the shows (ET,etc) actually took this or is this MB released footage made available to them & they just broadcast it during their "visit" show?
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02-13-02, 08:13 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: It's a motion blur."
the so called shadow is a motion blur between two frames. if you look close you can follow the line at the base of his ballcap through the blur.
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-02, 09:05 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: I think not."
I have to agree with the motion blurr explaination. Also, Pete is NOT a small guy. They are walking very close together, especially the two guys in question. I don't see any way that Pete could be virtually invisible between them on more than one vid cap frame. If three of them fit into that short a space, they would be tripping over each other. Great find ICB, I think you've nailed it.


true

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thebes 8 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-02, 06:49 PM (EST)
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36. "The case for Gina being the first out"

I think we're being fooled by the perspective of this picture:

1. They are walking uphill so those in front will appear taller relative to those behind them. As an example, look at Sarah in the front - she is by far the shortest one in the tribe (see the pic of all of them standing together), but in this photo, she looks to be only slightly shorter than any of the men who are all walking behind her.

2. Now look at Pat in comparison to Peter/Gina behind her - focus on the difference in height between Pat's left elbow and Peter/Gina's right elbow (if you see the animation of this, they are clapping as they are walking so each has been captured mid-clap). Pat's elbow is significantly below the elbow of the person behind her, even though she is walking a ways in front of him/her. It's already been pointed out that Gina and Pat are very close in height (Gina may have an inch on Pat). Since Pat still appears so much shorter than the person behind her, that tells me that person has to be Peter.

3. And look at this vidcap:

See the hand on Pat's right shoulder - I believe that's the hand of the mystery person.
TDT has another cap of this, where it looks more clearly to me to be a larger, thicker male hand:

I also think it more likely that Peter (a guy) would put his arm around Pat than Gina would.

4. I don't think Gina would wear baggy, khaki pants to a challenge - if you got it, flaunt it!

5. And the articles about her clashes with the school board tell me that she's sensitive, outspoken, not one who's willing to go with the flow, and isn't afraid to stand up for herself. While those may be admirable qualities, they are qualities she also shares with many early bootees.

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-02, 07:30 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: The case for Gina being the first out"
I'm afraid that IS Gina's hand. She's wearing long pants because the Nono bugs have bitten her to death, and she's not a GOT IT-FLAUNT IT type. Judging my the articles about her troubles, she's more the "I don't care what I look like, I just want to be comfortable type of gal." Also, in the first group shot, she appears to be wearing these khaki pants. AND if you see the shot in motion, it's clearly a woman's hips moving, swivling from side to side as she climbs up that little hill they are on. Peter's hips would not move like that. He's so tall, he would have a lumbering, loping kind of gait, which this last person does not have. That still doesn't mean he was voted out. It's just that that is NOT him in the controversial vid cap of vid caps.

Now WHY would they have voted him out first? Because the other three big guys, Rob, Hunter and the not so big, but wiry Sean, figured they didn't need him. He must've been REALLY irritating. Or she was. I still think it's Pat or Kathy.

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-02, 07:33 PM (EST)
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38. "Devils Advocate Again..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-02 AT 07:43 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 02-28-02 AT 07:42 PM (EST)

The 'Peter Out First Theory' is partially dependant upon John's apparent beard growth. This photo was provided as proof that the sequence of images was from a challenge that occurs later than first challenge:

This capture that Bungler made today seems to show the arrival to the first challenge and John is wearing the same clothes and has a very dark face:

I think that my earlier analysis of the video quality and light levels has proven to be correct and I submit that the only evidence of Peter being booted is the video sequence in which he is not walking in line with the rest of his tribe. I suggested earlier that he may simply be off camera walking a little slower than the rest.

The evidence for our group pick is weak in my opinion but I have to agree that there is not much else in the way of other good theories.

The shots of Maraamu submerging their canoe are a pretty good indication that they lose the first challenge. The fact that Peter is a member of Maraamu does make this seem to go well with the missing Peter sequence.

I still can't help think that the normal logic of 'keep the strong pre-boot' will prevail and that Pat will be perceived to be the weakest and will be gone.

I'm voting Pat!



OUTSPOIL! OUTSPOOF! OUTRAGEOUS!

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