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"The Survivor Formula... Spoiling the Tribal Dynamics"
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-02, 07:58 PM (EST)
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"The Survivor Formula... Spoiling the Tribal Dynamics"
Is Survivor Formulaic??? Take a Look:

Note: I have not included S1 contestants and tribes, because at the time, the contestants did not know how to play the game, so their "strategies" were different than the ones with similar personality types on later seasons... Thus, they are a little harder to place, but it's still pretty straight-forward... here's a hint: Tribe #1 = Tagi

Tribe #1: The Schemers (S2: Ogakor; S3: Samburu)
This tribe is filled with strategists, who adhere to the motto "form alliances early and often"... tribal loyalty means nothing compared to the chance to get farther in the game... and the only way to do that is to get in an alliance and vote off your other tribe members... even if they might help you win a challenge or two.

The mommy (S2: Tina; S3: Teresa)
She's your mother, with a vengence... she'll give you advice, offer to clean your clothes, break up the fights, then stab you in the back to get farther in the game... Strategy??? she's got it all planned out, and is quick to adapt.

The bitch (S2: Jerri; S3: Lindsey)
She's there to compete, and she's willing to let you know... but don't be surprised if she burns too many bridges on her way to the top... chances are, her teammates will eventually turn on her. (Note: S1's Stacey)

The ditz (S2: Amber; S3: Kim P.)
She doesn't get it... she's a follower, and having her on the tribe of schemers is almost a joke. She's likely to suggest strategies that include "sticking with the home team tonight while they vote me out" and "let's all vote for different people and hope they don't vote for one of us"... but she's cute, and she's willing to do anything her master tells her to, so it's a good idea to keep her around... as long as you're quick to become the leader.

The outspoken one (S2: Maralyn; S3: Linda)
She'll tell you what she thinks, and you might not like it, but you can't help to smile. Whether it's hugs, mother Africa, or condom counting, she's gonna tell it like it is... if you're a friend, you're lucky... if you're an enemy, you're gonna hear it! (Note: S1's Susan)

The outsider (S2: Kel; S3: Frank)
He's strong, he's there to work, and he expects the same from everyone else. Strategy is important, but this is a team effort, and if you don't agree, he'll tell you about it... note: May be retitled "The soldier", cause he expects discipline, and was likely in the armed forces at some point in the past. If you manage to ally with him, he'll stick with you to the bitter end. (Note: S1's Rudy)

The jester (S2: Mitchell; S3: Silas)
He's out of his league with these schemers, but he doesn't realize it... and it's hilarious to watch. He's pretty clueless when it comes to personal interaction, but he thinks he's in control... and the audience won't know whether to laugh at him or feel bad for him.

The plotter (S2: Colby; S3: Brandon)
A strong competitor, both on the field, and in the scheming department. He's constantly working on strategy, and if he allies with the mommy, you've got a deadly combo. He has strong people skills, and may try to form multiple alliances at some point, so that he has multiple options. (Note: S1's Richard)

The father (S2: Keith; S3: Carl)
Just like real father figures, he can come across as bossy at times, and as an advisor at other times. One thing that is consistent, though... he is not a strong strategist, and this will probably hurt him in the long run.

Tribe #2: The Community (S2: Kucha; S3: Boran)
Just like a real community, there may be conflict, but ultimately this tribe tries to work together for the betterment of the group. If there's a weak link, they will probably be voted out... Alliances are slow to form, because this group must establish trust first, and alliances second.

The introvert (S2: Nick; S3: Ethan)
This person is friendly, and gets by with his Under the Radar style of play... but be careful, because he will be loyal, and his friendships with everyone make him a hard person to get rid of. He's a good person to have as your ally, but he makes for bad TV.

The leader (S2: Jeff; S3: Lex)
This person is bound to get a lot of face time, simply because he is extremely interesting. They are open to the cameras, and also develop a strong presence within the tribe. Being the leader is a good thing, but you're likely to find yourself as the target of those being voted out of the tribe.

The farmer (S2: Roger; S3: Tom)
This person gets by with his charm, and is well-liked by all... he's not really a simple person, but he plays the part to a tee. He's a strong adversary, but an even stronger ally.

The awkward one (S2: Michael; S3: Clarence)
Why oh why does this person keep getting himself in trouble? His heart's in the right place, and he thinks he's doing what's best for the tribe, but at every step of the game, he finds himself making another mistake. From declaring himself the tribes God-given leader, to eating a can of beans, his mistakes are likely to cause unrest, but they may ultimately benefit the tribe, because he's determined to help.

The sweetheart (S2: Elisabeth; S3: Jessie)
This person isn't the best strategist, but she's too sweet to get rid of. If she doesn't do something to get herself removed from the game, she's likely to stay with the tribe until the final few days... but be careful, there's not a single person that can beat the tribal sweetheart if she gets to the jury. To be allied to her is a one-way ticket to second place. The farmer and the sweetheart are likely to form an early connection. (Note: S1's Colleen)

The leading lady (S2: Debb; S3: Diane)
She's 100% sure that she's gonna be the tribe's leader, and she's sure to butt heads with the male leader (see above)... if she's nice about it, she might get to stay in the game, but a wrong move will send her home before Jeff can say "The tribe has spoken."

The loudmouth (S2: Kimmi; S3: Kelly)
What is with this girl??? She can't keep her mouth shut, and it's gonna cost her the game. She lives to make controversy, but unfortunately she hasn't perfected the art of creating it for others. When she finally snaps (and she will!), look for a timely exit.

The strong one (S2: Alicia; S3: See Note)
She's a strong woman, and proud of it. She's ready to hold her own in challenges, and is also firmly in control of her emotions. She's young, she's fit, and she's a huge asset before the merge, but a larger threat after it. She's willing to stand up for what she believes in, but more importantly, she's there to compete.

***But what happened to the strong one in S3??? Well, remember that Teresa said she was originally slated to appear on S4, but a last-minute drop out forced the producers to bump her up into the S3 slot. Thus, we had two mommies... Teresa was placed in the traditional mommy role (as she fulfilled the schemer requirements better), and Kim J was moved over to the other tribe, to fill in for the strong one, who was forced to drop out.

...so why should we care?

Well, a few things to note:

-Tribe 1 tends to have a weak start, because these personality types take time to trust and to build a team. Tribe 2 tends to have a stronger start, since they are more competitive by nature.

-Tribe 1 tends to be stronger going into the merge, while Tribe 2 has cannibalized itself after only a few episodes.

-The leading lady has been the first to go in both of the last two shows, although under decidedly different circumstances.

-The plotter and the mommy have always made the merge.

-The bitch has been good at recruiting friends (including the ditz), who will stay loyal until she's gone.

... a few personality types are usually easy to spot (once we start getting real footage):

-The farmer
-The sweetheart/The ditz
-The mommy

If we start to look to fill these personality types, we might get a jump on the tribal dynamics... after all, Survivor is a formula, and once again, we will have 16 contestants, 2 tribes, and 1 survivor... anyone wanna take a stab at assigning the S4 personalities???


You never know what might be up my sleeeve...

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Nice Theory! idiotcowboy 02-06-02 1
 RE: The Survivor Formula... Spoilin... Kokoro 02-06-02 2
 RE: The Survivor Formula... Spoilin... IslandFever 02-06-02 3
   RE: The Survivor Formula... Spoilin... speedstr22 02-07-02 5
 RE: The Survivor Formula... Spoilin... Outfrontgirl 02-07-02 4

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-02, 08:50 PM (EST)
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1. "Nice Theory!"
Not sure I agree with all the catagories and I thought Theresa said she was supposed to be in S2 not S4, but she was too similar to Tina (S2) so they bumped her. I could have my facts wrong on that though. For argument sake though I will accept your catagories and place the S4 people who fit where based soley on their bio's

Tribe #1: The Schemers (S2: Ogakor; S3: Samburu)

Ok here I'll put the Rotu's

The mommy (S2: Tina; S3: Teresa)

Vecepia Towery, 36, Portland, OR
Office Manager

Older than Gina and Sarah, and the role fits the age at least.

The bitch (S2: Jerri; S3: Lindsey)

Gina Crews, 28, Gainsville, FL
Nature Guide

I dunno just a hunch.

The ditz (S2: Amber; S3: Kim P.)

Sarah Jones, 24, Newport Beach, CA
Accounts Manager

She reminds me of Amber, only better looking.

The outspoken one (S2: Maralyn; S3: Linda)

Patricia Jackson, 49, Lugoff, SC
Truck Assembler

Not that anyone can understand her (from what Bungler says on the screen cap thread).

The outsider (S2: Kel; S3: Frank)

Hunter Ellis, 33, La Jolla, CA
Fed Ex Pilot

Military man, expects order in choas.

The jester (S2: Mitchell; S3: Silas)

Rob Marioano, 26, Canton, MA
Construction Worker

Lovable idiot.

The plotter (S2: Colby; S3: Brandon)

Peter Hawkey, 45, Millis, MA
Bowling Alley/Wine Shop Owner

I was running out of people types.

The father (S2: Keith; S3: Carl)

Sean Rector, 30, Harlem, NY
Teacher

The Bible touting teacher... sounds about right.

Tribe #2: The Community (S2: Kucha; >S3: Boran)

That would leave us with Maraamu

The introvert (S2: Nick; S3: Ethan)

Gabriel Cade, 23, Celo, NC
Bartender

He and John may be switched, but he kinda looks like Ethan... does that count

The leader (S2: Jeff; S3: Lex)

Paschal English, 57, Thomaston, GA
Judge

A judge typically would fit this catagory, I think.

The farmer (S2: Roger; S3: Tom)

Robert De Canio, 38, Queens, NY
Limo Driver

Perhaps caricture would be a better title, this guy just fits the mold of the typical New Yorker, and I bet he has a mean accent.

The awkward one (S2: Michael; S3: Clarence)

John Carroll, 36, Omaha, NE
Registered Nurse

No matter whether he's gay or straight he might be a bit awkward.

The sweetheart (S2: Elisabeth; S3: Jessie)

Neleh Dennis, 21, Layton, UT
Student

A real cutie, but looks weak to me.

The leading lady (S2: Debb; S3: Diane)

Tammy Leitner, 29, Mesa, AZ
Reporter

Reporters love attention.

The loudmouth (S2: Kimmi; S3: Kelly)

Kathy Vavrick-O’Brien, 47, Burlington, VT
Real Estate Agent

Sales people NEVER shut up!

The strong one (S2: Alicia; S3: See Note)

Zoe Zanidakis, 35, Monhegan Island, ME
Fishing Boat Captain

No one fits better from the bios than her!

Not too bad a fit 3E dude!

-ICB

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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-02, 09:42 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: The Survivor Formula... Spoiling the Tribal Dynamics"

Tribe #1: The Schemers will be: Rotu

The Mommy (S2: Tina; S3: Teresa)

Patricia

She's the only one on the tribe that fits the age requirement and she's married with 2 children as well. (She's one of the reasons I made this tribe the schemers as well, as Kathy and Zoe do not seem to be motherly types)

The ##### (S2: Jerri; S3: Lindsey)

Sarah

This is really a huge guess....she just seems to fit the look and also she's moved around a lot in her life like Jerri and she's part of the corporate world....

The Ditz (S2: Amber; S3: Kim P.)

Rob

Yeah okay so the ditz is usually a cute girl....I need to fill the slot....I don't know; All brawn no brains? ^-^;;

The Outspoken One (S2: Maralyn; S3: Linda)

Vecepia

Formerly of the air force, now an office manager
Another military type....they've never been the quiet types.
Plus she could have been cast as a no nonsense Alicia/Linda type.

The Outsider (S2: Kel; S3: Frank)

Hunter

He's a military man, Frank was a military man, Kel was a military man....does it need anymore explanation?

The Jester (S2: Mitchell; S3: Silas)

Gina

I mean honestly she's the "Watermelon Queen"!

The Plotter (S2: Colby; S3: Brandon)

Sean

Well he has a psychology degree and he's a teacher....the plotter is hard to ID without any footage.

The Father (S2: Keith; S3: Carl)

Peter

Again he fits the age group and he actually is married and a father of two. Looks like a nice guy I guess.


Tribe #2: The Community will be: Maraamu


The Introvert (S2: Nick; S3: Ethan)

John

Well he may or may not be "the gay one" this year....he seems to enjoy helping others and learning through higher education (he's currently studying law; Spent a few years in the military. Possibly the bookworm type?

The leader (S2: Jeff; S3: Lex)

Paschal

Well he's a judge....he's used to being completely in control. This may lead to some weird type of B.B. Anderson deja vu though....

The farmer (S2: Roger; S3: Tom)

Gabriel

Closest thing to the farmer that I see....he looks "LA" but he's from NC so I figure he's got to have some kinda accent. He looks like a charming guy and he grew up on his family's farm.
Sounds like a nice guy (man for others) in his bio.

The awkward one (S2: Michael; S3: Clarence)

Robert

He worked in the postal service for 18 1/2 years. Reaching, I know....He drives a limo for a living (where did I get this?) and is still single (not that there's anything wrong with that ^-^;;) His bio says he works in customer services; My sister works in customer services (not exotic dancing btw she got a real job) and you don't know awkward until you've met her. Another hunch I guess.

The sweetheart (S2: Elisabeth; S3: Jessie)

Neleh

Easily the "cute one" on the show....also a devout Mormon (luxury item: scriptures) and majorly into volunteer work and helping others if you read her bio (even if Webby does think it's only for her resume/university app ;)

The leading lady (S2: Debb; S3: Diane)

Zoe

She's a fishing boat captain, which means on her team, she's the boss and that's that. She looks like a very outspoken person.
Has also been in charge of a hotel, a restaurant and a gift shop....she seems to have good managerial skills as well as other skills (she has a captains licence from the US coast guard and is working towards a helicopter licence)and seems to enjoy sporty outdoorsy things which could actually make her the leader and Paschal the "leading lady" =)

The loudmouth (S2: Kimmi; S3: Kelly)

Kathy

Kathy goes here because Tammy looks a hell of a lot stronger than her....she's a real estate agent so you know her job is to talk and talk and talk until she gets the sale. I could also see her vying for a leadership role. Doesn't seem to have great people skills if you look at the success of her marriages (but not knowing the details I can't really judge on that)

The strong one (S2: Alicia; S3: See Note)

Tammy

She looks very physically fit and has to be competitive being that she is a reporter (work that she has recieved awards for)
According to her bio she'll do anything for the story. She once saved a man from drowning. Has also spent time behind bars to get an inside crime report and has burst into a burning building.

<<Leitner's hobbies include running, biking, lifting weights, kickboxing, camping, photography and traveling.>>

----------------------------------------

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IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"

02-06-02, 11:31 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: The Survivor Formula... Spoiling the Tribal Dynamics"
I'll take a stab at it, but remember we were totally wrong about Kelly, Brandon, and Frank last time. We never thought they would make it to the jury.

Mommy- Vecepia,36
Witch- Sarah,24, she's Jerri with a body
Ditz- Gina,28, maybe more of a Liz type though
Outspoken- Patricia,49, one of the first to go, Mad Dog type
Outsider- Peter,45, can't get a handle on this guy
Jester- Rob,26, cute,strong type
Plotter- Hunter,33, he reminds me of Colby more than Frank, even with his military background
Father- Sean,30, maybe one of these days a black male will have a chance, and then again there's Clarence

Introvert- Gabriel,23, reminds me of Ethan, but ballet dancing??
Leader- John,36, is he or isn't he? and does it matter?
Farmer- Robert,38, an early bootee
Awkward- Paschal,57, read BB or Carl
Sweetheart- Neleh,21, practicing Mormon, decent,friendly type
Leading Lady- Zoe,35, first to go
Loudmouth- Kathy,47, Diane vibes,not long for game
Strong- Tammy,29, from my home town, got to root for her

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speedstr22 7 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"

02-07-02, 04:46 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: The Survivor Formula... Spoiling the Tribal Dynamics"
>Very Cool post sleeve... you have some very valid points. I decided to change up who I thought was which tribe... I think Rotu will be the scheming tribe and Marwhatever will be the community tribe. I also made a couple of adjustments, just to shake things up a bit... hope you don't mind sleeeve!
>
>Mommy- Kathy -her age (47) and the fact she has kids is the biggest reason. Just from her bio and first impressions (her luxury item is paints -very crafty and momish) she seems like the positive mother type.
>Witch- Tammy - her bio depicts a very strong and independant woman, and lots of times, that means she going to be edited to be the #####
>Ditz- Neleh - I just can't see her forming alliances, or doing any kind of backstabbing or politicking in this game, and I'm pretty sure she'll just follow whoever is in her lead.
>Outspoken- Robert - A voodoo doll for a luxury item?? Bio makes him seem confrontational. I debated putting him in the outsider category too... which he very well could be. I have a feeling he'll be very outspoken and I think he'll conflict big time with kathy, john and neleh (just a guess of course)
>Outsider- Zoe -I'm guessing either outspoken or outsider. I picked outsider for her because of her job, and the fact that it's such a loner job. Plus, I'm getting this "I like being alone" kind of vibe.
>Hot guy - Gabriel - I can't believe you didn't put this into the equation sleeeve! Greg, Colby, and Silas... all very different guys but all very strong, and very hot. Greg and Silas just happened to be at the wrong end of the stick.
>Plotter- John -He seems like a nice guy on paper, but he also seems like a very driven guy, plus he's studying to be a lawyer, AND he has big time people skills. Sounds like a plotter to me (reminds me of Jeff from S2)
>Father- Paschal - he's a judge.. how much more fatherly can you get? Unfortunately, I don't think neleh is going to be strong enough to stop mr. P from getting an early boot for being the weakest in the tribe.


Introvert- Peter - I couldn't decided whether to put someone in here, though there does seem to be at least one introvert in each survivor... but the producers may have figured out how boring that is and cut that character out... but I don't know where to place peter so I'll just place him here!
>Leader- Hunter - This guy will definitely take the leadership role! Which will help him in the beginning but probably make him very vulnerable after the merge. Plus he may rub people the wrong way (the risk you take when you lead)
>Awkward- Sean - A bible toter from harlem... who loves malcolm X... I don't know if he will be able to relate to anyone in the group, even vecepia...
>Sweetheart- Sarah - she's the only one other than neleh that would cover this spot and you all know what I think of neleh...
>Leading Lady- Patricia - from the promos and bio, she seems way way too outspoken... I think she'll be the first to get the boot
>Loudmouth- Gina - I don't know if she'll be this way, but I think it'll either be her or Vecepia...tough to call for this one
>Strong- Vecepia - I honestly don't know where else to put her. She's not really that strong... maybe gina... maybe no one...
Jester- Rob So I switched the jester to this group... I don't think there are any real farmers in the group so I'm cutting out the farmer... I picked rob for jester because of his bio... no one else in the other group seemed to fit the bill.

So that's all folks.. lemme know what you guys think!

speedie
>


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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-02, 03:04 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: The Survivor Formula... Spoiling the Tribal Dynamics"
sleeeve,
I think this analysis is quite wonderful. It's never going to be a perfect fit, but overall this works VERY well.

I worked a lot with the bios and team make-up today as I was putting up an astrology thread on Bashers.
this being the link:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID1/961.shtml#

It's very non-technical astrology, Sun, Moon, Elements.
Near the bottom I did an analysis of each team that you guys might find worth looking at. I also did a basic age breakdown and "family member" type analysis for each tribe.

It turns out the Maraamu are MOSTLY the FIRE stong ego and individual types, and the ambitious manipulative types (Capricorns), in other words, TRIBE #1.

And the ROTU are the WATER team with 2 AIR people and one lone Capricorn, Kathy. Many of them are healers, helpers, caretakers, community-oriented types. TRIBE #2.

Actually this is also the order they are shown across cbs.com.

Tribe 1 has more Extroverts, doers, leaders, and stars...
Tribe 2 has more Introvert, Feeling types, with the exception of Robert, who is only about 24 hours older than Lex, if you can believe that coincidence.

Two tatooed guys born one day apart in the sign of the Twins on consecutive Survivors. The one born later cast on the later show... it's spooky.

Anyway, my analysis is there. I am a little busy and worn out now, or I'd try to fill in your types here. I'll come back.
I also think that Tribe 2 (Water Signs) has an edge IN the water, based on all the water activities I see in their bios.

Re Tina/Teresa, I am fairly sure I remember this right. Teresa was never considered for S2, rather she was nearly bumped from S3 to S4 because she was too much like the woman who had just won S2. Makes sense.


With every season, we must surely be learning

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