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"AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two"
xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-21-07, 00:22 AM (EST)
 
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"AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
I'm starting a new thread to prevent the other one from getting any longer. I'm on dial up and the loading time is starting to drag a bit. Anyway, I'll be posting the final results of both DialIdol and VoteFair on this thread. You need to comment on, complain about, cheer, or even question the results of the predictions? You may do it here. Just remember that these are just predictions, and do not actually reflect the results of the voting. Thus, everything here will not have any spoiler value despite the alleged accuracy of DialIdol. Here's the link for the previous thread (link) in case you want to check it out. Snidget and Fishercat have posted some great information about DialIdol in there. Plus of course, the results for the first four weeks of AI6. Also, because of the length of the posts in the thread, I'm discouraging everyone from using your sigpics here. I'm not stopping you from doing it, just please don't do it often. 
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-07, 02:04 AM (EST)
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1. "Results, Top 11 Finalists" |
DialIdol, by Score
1 Melinda Doolittle
2-6 Phil Stacey
2-7 Sanjaya Malakar
2-7 Blake Lewis
2-7 Lakisha Jones
2-11 (B3) Jordin Sparks
3-11 (B3) Chris Richardson
6-11 (B3) Haley Scarnato
6-11 (B3) Gina Glocksen
6-11 (B3) Chris Sligh
6-11 (B3) Stephanie EdwardsStephanie was also in last place last week, but didn't end up in the bottom three. Sanjaya turned out to be in the bottom three last week despite DI's predictions, so we'll just have to wait and see what happens to him this week. Just stating the obvious, but if this prediction holds true, then expect Sanjaya to participate in the upcoming AI tour. Anyway, Phil finishes quite strong this week on their chart, beating favorites Lakisha, Jordin, Blake, and (ugh!) Sanjaya. Melinda takes solo position for first place. DialIdol, by Busy Signals
1. Melinda Doolittle
2. Phil Stacey
3. Blake Lewis
4. Lakisha Jones
5. Jordin Sparks
6. Sanjaya Malakar
7. Stephanie Edwards
8. Chris Richardson
9. Chris Sligh
10. Haley Scarnato
11. Gina Glocksen Melinda also takes the lead in this list. Over 1/3 of calls for her translate into busy signals. Gina has no such luck--only 1 out of 9 calls end up as busy signals for her. VoteFair
1. Melinda Doolittle
2. Lakisha Jones
3. Blake Lewis
4. Jordin Sparks
5. Chris Sligh
6. Gina Glocksen
7. Chris Richardson
8. Stephanie Edwards
9. Haley Scarnato
10. Phil Stacey
11. Sanjaya Malakar Even though Sanjaya remains the least popular choice in VoteFair, they're predicting that the two most vulnerable this week are Stephanie and Phil "because their 'traditional vote counts' in these VoteFair results are lower than the ones of least-popular Sanjaya". English, please? They are also predicting a final three of Melinda, Blake, and Jordin, with the first two moving on to the finale. They're giving the edge to Melinda for that final two bout.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-07, 09:13 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
I started watching the show at 10:30 and started voting for Blake after he sang and did so for about 1/2 hour straight...NO BUSY SIGNALS either...It must be the Glowie Factor..."I'm not voting bc this season is too boring compared to Bucky and Chris last year."
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-07, 10:08 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
could it be a factor of where you live?I'm in the seattle area, and I didn't try to vote for our local boy Blake because he seemed safe. but I had a hard time getting votes in for Gina! probably a factor of my market? I almost tried some of the other numbers for comparison, but lacked the motivation to bother. hah. seattle in general is more alternative than pop. although the alternative types probably boycott the show, so it's hard to know how that washes out.
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aquariaqueen 2616 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-07, 12:17 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
I'm in the midwest....but it doesn't mean you have to laugh at me!!! LOL
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-07, 12:22 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
Some people seem to think they might have added some capacity to the system.Which makes some sense if they want the final vote tallies to be higher than last year. We will have to see how much they go up at the end. Some of the votes have been close enough (where they are all almost the same % according to Ryan) that I think they probably needed to add more capacity. They've gotten complaints about that. If they can handle more incoming calls we should have fewer busy signals. 
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow man, and I hate people like that!" Tom Lehrer
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-07, 04:05 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
yeah, I don't assume anyone's "safe" as a general concept. but I also was looking at DialIdol, and he seemed good. although it's hard to trust that so much after Sanjaya's mysterious discrepancy last week. and I have a hard time believing Phil was a top vote-getter last night. makes no sense at all to me.
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-07, 05:56 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-21-07 AT 06:01 PM (EST)Here's what I found in the season 4 archives --a theory from ToddLJ who had it at least in season 3, maybe even season 2? Anyway, it is basically a fan base will rally to "save" someone who was in the bottom 3 the previous week--Phil and Sanjaya fit that bill with getting enough votes this week (we think) to be safe this week: -------------------From ToddLJ----------- Here's the rule: Part 1: In any given week, the bottom three can be predicted by looking at the bottom three from two weeks prior. Part 2: Two members of the bottom three will be the two people who were in the bottom three two weeks prior (but weren't booted.) Part 2-A: One of those two people will be booted. Part 3: The other person in the bottom three will be someone who has never been in the bottom three previously. Part 3A: Or someone who was in the bottom 3 previously, but not in the prior two weeks. This rule can't predict the first two weeks, because it's based on patterns, but since week three, this rule predicted the boots of Jessica, Nadia and Anwar. That's 3 out of 5 boots that have followed this rule. ----------------- Top 12: Bottom 3
---------
Phil (safe)
Sanjaya (bottom 2)
Brandon (booted)
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-07, 05:43 PM (EST)
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13. "Dial Idol by state." |
LAST EDITED ON 03-22-07 AT 05:28 AM (EST)On the site if you click Geo Predictions it shows who is first and last for each state. I thought it might be interesting to look at.
* is bottom 3Top 12
Predicted Loser
# States Idol
7....Sanjaya*
5....Brandon*
3....Chris S.
2....Chris R.
1....Haley
4....No Score
28...Tie Top 12
Predicted Winner
# States Idol
25...Melinda
6....Lakisha
3....Sanjaya*
3....Jordin
2....Gina
2....Blake
2....Steph
1....Haley
5....No Score
1....Tie Top 11
Predicted Loser
# States Idol
10...Steph*
5....Phil
4....Sanjaya
3....Chris R.*
1....Chris S.
1....Haley
5....No Score
21...Tie Top 11
Predicted Winner
# States Idol
23...Melinda
5....Lakisha
4....Blake
3....Sanjaya
2....Jordin
2....Gina
2....Phil
1....Haley
5....No score
3....Tie ETA: * for bottom two from Top 11
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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03-26-07, 10:19 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Uhmm..." |
Xwraith--I would volunteer to do it but I am out of town this week on business and will not be able to monitor it much. If no one else posts it I will post when I can.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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03-26-07, 06:49 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Uhmm..." |
I should be able to help out with this.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-07, 05:22 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: AOL Poll. Top Ten Wednesday Morning" |
Melinda
Jordin
Blake
Lakisha
Chris R.
Haley
Sanjaya
Chris S.
Gina
Phil
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-07, 05:18 AM (EST)
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20. "Top 10 Rankings" |
Dial Idol Rankings.1-2 Melinda Doolittle
1-7 Chris Richardson
2-7 Lakisha Jones
2-7 Sanjaya Malakar
2-10 Gina Glokesen
2-10 Phil Stacey
2-10 Blake Lewis
5-10 Jordin Sparks
5-10 Haley Scarnato
5-10 Chris Sligh Since the Raw Busy numbers seem to be predictive the last couple of weeks here they are. Followed by the Busy Percentags Sanjaya 11044
Melinda 7452
Gina Glocksen 7247
Jordin Sparks 6271
Blake Lewis 6196
Haley Scarnato 5385
Chris Richardsen 4224
Chris Sligh 3920
Lakisha Jones 3511
Phil Stacey 3451 Vote Fair Melinda Doolittle
Blake Lewis
Jordin Sparks
Lakisha Jones
Gina Glocksen
Chris Richardson
Chris Sligh
Haley Scarnato
Phil Stacey
Sanjaya Malaka
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-07, 05:42 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Top 10 Rankings Dial Idol by state" |
Predicted Loser
Idol.....# States where they Lost
Sanjaya.....7
Phil........6
Chris R.....5
Chris S.....5
Haley.......5
Gina........1
Lakisha.....1
Tie........14
No Score....6Predicted Winner Idol.....# States where they Won Melinda.....22
Jordin.......5
Sanjaya......4
Gina.........4
Chris R......3
Phil.........2
Blake........2
Chris S......1
Haley........1
No Score.....6 Won - Lost
Melinda.....22
Jordin.......5
Gina.........3
Blake........2
Lakisha.....-1
Chris R.....-2
Sanjaya.....-3
Haley.......-4
Phil........-4
Chris S.....-4
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-07, 10:43 AM (EST)
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27. "AOL Top Nine Preshow" |
*squints*
*squints and tilts head*1. Sanjaya
2. Melinda
3. Jordin
4. Blake.
5. Chris R.
6. Phil
7. Haley
8. Lakisha
9. Gina *goes to VFTW.com and lurks* Ah, the VFTWers found the MSNBC and AOL polls and have found a way to vote for Sanjaya all week long.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-07, 06:07 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: AOL Top Nine Weds AM." |
1. Sanjaya
2. Melinda
3. Jordin
4. Blake
5. Haley
6. Phil
7. Gina
8. Chris
9. Lakisha
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-07, 02:26 AM (EST)
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29. "Top 9 rankings" |
at the end of Pacfic zone voting, before Hawaii:
1-5 Melinda Doolittle -
1-9 (B3) Phil Stacey -
1-9 (B3) Sanjaya Malakar -
1-9 (B3) Chris Richardson -
1-9 (B3) Blake Lewis -
2-9 (B3) Jordin Sparks -
2-9 (B3) Gina Glocksen -
2-9 (B3) Lakisha Jones -
2-9 (B3) Haley Scarnato
at 10:30 my time, three were safe including Phil. Then the bottom four shifted around 5 or 6 times, it was really in motion. Lakisha was even on the bottom once. So were the Jordin and Gina.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-07, 06:05 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Vote Fair" |
1. Melinda
2. Jordin
3. Blake
4. Lakisha
5. Gina
6. Chris
7. Phil
8. Haley
9. Sanjaya
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-04-07, 03:06 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-04-07 AT 03:08 PM (EST)ha ha ha you are funny It is ok. Believe in the Easter Bunny too? alol of People too.
lol Why can't people face it some people don't hate him and actaully like him? lol People vote for who they want. You guys are too funny!
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-07, 04:23 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
yep whatever if you don't get it. lol
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-07, 05:00 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
Everyone: bob_chester has been banned, so please don't respond to him any longer.
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-07, 03:11 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
You know what next week I am going to vote for Sanjaya too. Not because of VFTW just to ##### off all the naysayers. There is no real stars this season like last season. So I hope Sanjaya wins now.. It would be hilarous! lol
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-07, 03:49 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
You give too much credit to Stren and VFTWI know they report on the VFTW forum that a fair number of them do use dialidol, so I suspect some of the votes on there are those people. I also know the AOL poll numbers changed after the Worsters had it up on their forum and reported power voting on it. I don't know how many tweenagers are using power-voting software. I think they may like the sitting and actually dialing the phone or texting the vote in thing. Having been a tweenage girl once setting the software and going to do something else would just not have the same appeal. I knew the moment I saw Sanjaya that he'd be getting the Tween vote. There is always a Tween favorite. Just happens they also tend to end up as the one the Worsters vote for because the Tween favorite usually annoys the heck out of Simon. Personally, I think he's good entertainment and has that soft non-threating boy thing that makes 12 year old girls get all swoony. I think that with some of the right training and coaching he could get his voice under control to do well at live performance. He just isn't there, yet, IMO.
"I am returning this otherwise good typing paper to you because someone has printed gibberish all over it and put your name at the top."
- An English Professor
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-07, 04:22 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: Top 9 rankings--Dial Idol by State" |
My daughter use speed dail and just keeps pushing. She says she gets a lot of busy during the 1st hour and gets through a lot more then second hour.
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-07, 03:12 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Top 9 rankings" |
and Hawaii made no difference. the odds are all the same. (assuming they actually watch Hawaii? do we know for sure?)
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-07, 04:26 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: Top 9 rankings" |
If I were in Hawaii right now I would not be watching TV or voting. I don't think there are enough people in Alaska to make a difference.
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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 05:52 AM (EST)
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69. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
Dial Idol seems to have no relevance. If you looked at it, it had LaKisha and Phil in the bottom two.That was not the case. It failed this week, and last week. What's the story?
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 06:33 AM (EST)
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70. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-07 AT 06:35 AM (EST)With the margin of error all the people who have been voted off have been potentially the bottom person. If you really look at what they say the only person who was safe was Melinda. Everyone else was potentially in last place. Also, it was never designed to be a perfect prediction tool. There seems to be a lot less busy signals than before which makes it less accurate (if they want bigger vote totals than last year they had to up the capacity to receive votes). There is also the problem that DialIdol voters are probably not a scientifically representative sample of all American Idol voters. If you go to the site and look at the raw data Lakisha gets very few dialidol votes even if she is popular with other groups. This mean she isn't going to be measured accurately. They wrote the program so people could autodial for their favorites. That it reports busy signals has some predictive value, but like I said, the nature of how it is used by whoever uses it means it can't be a perfect predictive tool. Sometimes the raw data tells you more than the final score. No computer model is perfect. Just look at the margin of error for where a hurricane will land 5 days from now as an example. ETA: It isn't like any of the other polls got Gina as the boot, either.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 09:11 AM (EST)
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74. "RE: AI6 DialIdol/VoteFair Predictions Thread, Part Two" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-07 AT 09:13 AM (EST)From my limited understanding of the math they use to calculate you actually want more busy signals not less. It's not based as much on the votes that get through as it is the busy signals. The busy tells you how the population as a whole might be voting. If almost of the lines are clear almost all of the time it is hard to tell anyone apart, and most of the predictions really only tell you that Melinda is safe and the rest are too close to call. Yep it puts them in some order, but the margin of error is so big that most of the field could easily be in the bottom three. The problem is that isn't sampled evenly. It would be one thing if the dial idol voters voted for all the contestants close to evenly. I suspect they do try to normalize for that, but any mathmatical model is better when you are working off of real data rather than what you extrapolate. I may start adding in the % busy which hasn't been as good most weeks, but this week I think is the only number that had Gina at the bottom. ETA: The Geopredictions page shows you how the different states vote, it is kind of interesting to see how some parts of the country's dialidolers really vary in who they favor.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-07, 06:38 AM (EST)
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71. "Top 9 Prediction Summary" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-07 AT 06:41 AM (EST)Moving from the ECST now that time has expired. Prediction Summary (so will do top three, middle three and bottom 3 in order (green, blue, red) Dial Idol Ranking
1-5 Melinda Doolittle -
1-9 (B3) Phil Stacey -
1-9 (B3) Sanjaya Malakar -
1-9 (B3) Chris Richardson -
1-9 (B3) Blake Lewis -
2-9 (B3) Jordin Sparks -
2-9 (B3) Gina Glocksen -
2-9 (B3) Lakisha Jones -
2-9 (B3) Haley Scarnato Dial Idol Raw Busy
Sanjaya 16,750
Gina 7.470
Melinda 6,790
Blake 6,680
Jordin 5880
Haley 5500
Phil 3600
Chris 3380
Lakisha 2270 Vote Fair 1. Melinda
2. Jordin
3. Blake
4. Lakisha
5. Gina
6. Chris
7. Phil
8. Haley
9. Sanjaya AOL Poll 1. Sanjaya
2. Melinda
3. Jordin
4. Blake
5. Lakisha
6. Haley
7. Gina
8. Phil
9. Chris R. My State won-State Lost Melinda...13
Haley.....4
Sanjaya....4
Jordin.....3
Chris......1
Gina.......0
Blake......0
Lakisha...-5
Phil......-7
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 01:19 PM (EST)
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78. "RE: Top 9 Prediction Summary" |
Here's how he sorta told them:------- Ryan, after saying the songs the diva three sang: " America Voted....
this is where we take a break...
...but not tonight! You are all safe...
Take a seat. "
As he walks away from divas who are going to their seats:
"Lots of excitement there (the divas)"
Walking past the real bottom three:
" Not so much here (the real bottom 3)" Ryan now walks up to the 3 remaining guys (B/C/S): " you know you are not the top three...
....but you know you are not the bottom three...
You are safe, blah blah blah" So by inference he told the divas they were top three (by telling the boys they were middle three).
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-07, 02:48 PM (EST)
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79. "RE: Top 9 Prediction Summary" |
my question is was he supposed to? bc it was not known to us until he said that that the 3 divas were top 3. Most likely it was scripted but I thought maybe Ryan made a gaffe and then just went with it...
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-07, 03:40 AM (EST)
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83. "Additional VoteFair Predictions:" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-07 AT 03:41 AM (EST)<quote>
Predictions: Based on recent results in this VoteFair poll, and if there are no more mistakes, here are predictions for the elimination sequence:
- The next three elminations will be Phil, Haley, and Chris (Richardson), in no yet-predictable order, except that eliminations tend to alternate between males and females.
- Then (or possibly sooner) Lakisha is likely to be eliminated — for the same reason Mandisa in Season 5 was a surprise elimination: they lack first-choice popularity, and that's all that counts in the official results.
- After Lakisha is eliminated, Sanjaya will be eliminated (assuming he doesn't make a mistake before then). He continues to be promoted on websites and radio shows as "the worst", and therefore worthy of votes, supposedly to make the show more entertaining.
- The final three contestants are likely to be Blake Lewis, Jordin Sparks, and Melinda Doolittle.
- Because of vote-splitting between Jordin and Melinda, the top-two finale will include Blake. Jordin could be the other contestant if she picks up votes from the supporters of similar eliminated contestants.
</end quote>
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-07, 09:36 AM (EST)
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87. "RE: Top 8 Average Ranking " |
Thanks you two for providing this data! Could Haley be safe this week? Will Lakisha definately be in the bottom 3?-------- Back to last week for a second--there was a post on idol forums from Ricky that gave a different vote order list and said it was the real vote order than the one that Ryan implied. It said Sanj was in the top 3, Blake was 4th and Lakisha was much lower--the gist was that Ryan only implied the order but by not telling the divas that they were top 3 showed that they separated them for dramatic purposes. And when he went to the three guys, he said "we know you are not the top 3" which was true because if only Sanj was a top 3... Anyway, no way to know if Ricky's list was real or not. It does make you think about how Ryan separated them out and what he did not say--he did not tell M/J/L that they were the top 3.
So, watching for Ryan's words tonight.
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kidflash212 5051 desperate attention whore postings
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04-18-07, 09:40 PM (EST)
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93. "RE: Top 8 Average Ranking " |
I sorta wish they would release the totals from past seasons though - I'd be interested to see how close some eliminations were.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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04-18-07, 07:13 AM (EST)
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90. "Top 7 Ranking Data" |
Dial Idol Ranking (Only Phil is safe)1. Phil
2. Jordin
3. Chris
4. Melinda
5. Lakisha
6. Blake
7. Sanjaya Dial Idol Busy Percentages 1. Phil
2. Chris
3. Jordin
4. Melinda
5. Blake
6. Sanjaya
7. Lakisha AOL Poll (VFTW did go and vote sanjaya up here) 1. Sanjaya
2. Jordin
3. Melinda
4. Blake
5. Lakisha
6. Chris
7. Phil Vote Fair 1. Jordin
2. Blake
3. Melinda
4. Lakisha
5. Chris
6. Phil
7. Sanjaya Dial Idol Won States minus Lost States 1. Jordin (12)
2. Phil (10)
3. Chris (6)
4. Melinda (2)
5. Blake (1)
6. Lakisha (-8)
7. Sanjaya (-14) AveragesIdol.......... Ave..... W Ave
Jordin........ 1.78 ..... 1.67
Melinda....... 3.56 ..... 3.33
Phil.......... 3.63 ..... 4.78
Chris......... 3.93 ..... 4.56
Blake......... 4.30 ..... 3.78
Lakisha....... 5.33 ..... 5.00
Sanjaya....... 5.48 ..... 4.89
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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04-18-07, 09:43 AM (EST)
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91. "RE: Top 7 Ranking Data" |
Sigh. I am preparing myself for Blake in the bottom 2 or even the bottom 2. Too bad his pimp spot came on country week.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-07, 07:18 AM (EST)
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94. "Top 6 predictions." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-25-07 AT 07:18 AM (EST)Dial Idol Scores 1. Jordin (only one predicted safe)
2. Phil
3. Lakisha
4. Blake
5. Melinda
6. Chris. Busy % 1 Jordin
2 Phil
3 Jordin
4 Melinda
5 Blake
6 Lakisha
7 Phil
8 Chris
9 Blake
10 Melinda
11 Lakisha
12 Chris (for my average I averaged the two rankings.) Vote Fair 1 Jordin
2 Melinda
3 Blake
4 Lakisha
5 Phil
6 Chris AOL poll 1 Phil
2 Jordin
3 Melinda
4 Blake
5 Lakisha
6 Chris Dial Idol States Won and Lost (it had a glitch with the two lines so I had to click each state and may not have gotten them all correct. It is easier when they are color coded. Idol........Won...Lost....W-L
Jordin.......25.....0....25
Phil..........6.....4.....2
Chris.........2....22...-20
Melinda.......4.....1.....3
Blake.........6.....1.....5
Lakisha.......4....17...-13
Tie...........0.....2
No Votes......3.....3
total.......50.....50 Averages Done straight with all the numbers and Weighted (W) where the three dial idol numbers are reduced in weight so they only count once in the average. Idol.......Ave.....W Ave
Jordin.....1.22.....1.33
Phil.......2.81.....2.89
Melinda....3.24.....2.94
Blake......3.31.....3.39
Lakisha....4.59.....4.56
Chris......6.19.....6.11
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Breezy 18380 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-07, 08:03 AM (EST)
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95. "RE: Top 6 predictions." |
Doesn't look good for Chris. I was hoping Lakisha would be sent packing this week.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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04-29-07, 02:11 PM (EST)
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96. "RE: Top 6 predictions." |
They fixed the bug in the GeoPredictionsHere are the update numbers. Doesn't change much, but I like having everything done the way dialidol called them rather than me looking at the raw data. That and it's probably more accurate looking at the colors rather than scrolling over each state. ............States
Idol.......Won...Lost...W-L
Jordin.....26.....0....26
Blake.......7.....1.....6
Melinda.....3.....1.....2
Phil........6.....5.....1
Lakisha.....4....15...-11
Chris.......1....21...-20
Tie.........0.....4
No Votes....3.....3
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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05-02-07, 06:25 AM (EST)
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97. "Top 6 Take Two predictions." |
We don't know the adding procedure done by AI for this, and not all the polls did it the same way, but we will see what we see.My first take looking at the numbers is that this week didn't change much other than move Blake up a bit and maybe make last week's bottom 2 on the averages even more strongly in the bottom two. That is a first impression, not a solid analysis :}
bold = higher than last week ital = lower
Dial Idol Score
Range Idol
1--2 Jordin
1--4 Blake
2--6 Phil
2--6 Melinda
3--6 Lakisha
3--6 Chris Dial Idol Busy Percentages (averages the two phone lines) 1. Jordin (1 and 4)
2. Blake (2 and 7)
3. Phil (3 and 9)
4. Melinda (5 and 11)
4. Chris (6 and 10)
6. Lakisha (8 and 12) Vote Fair 1. Blake
2. Melinda
3. Jordin
4. Lakisha
5. Phil
6. Chris AOL poll (VFTW votes heavily to get the worster on top) 1. Phil
2. Jordin
3. Melinda
4. Lakisha
5. Blake
6. Chris Won-Lost states
Rank didn't change, got a few more states involved with more votes there was data for more states.bold = higher than last week ital = lower Idol.....Won...Lost...W-L
Jordin....26.....0....26
Blake.....13.....1....12
Melinda....3.....3.....0
Phil.......4.....7....-3
Lakisha....2....13...-11
Chris......2....23...-21
Tie........0.....3
No Votes...0.....0
Idol.....Ave.....W Ave
Jordin.....1.67.....2.00 (not as solidly in first)
Blake.....2.44.....2.67
Phil.......3.19.....3.11
Melinda....3.24.....2.94
Lakisha....4.74.....4.44
Chris......5.72.....5.83
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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05-09-07, 06:36 AM (EST)
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98. "Top 4 Predictions" |
Dial Idol Score1. Blake 1-2 (just squeaked it out at the end, Jordin was first most of the night)
2. Jordin 1-2
3. Melinda 3-4
4. Lakisha 3-4 FWIW, DialIdol did predict the Daughtry boot last year at this stage of the game. Busy Percentages (averaged the rank of both phone lines) 1 tie Blake and Jordin
3. Lakisha
4. Melinda Vote Fair 1. Jordin
2. Melinda
3. Blake
4. Lakisha AOL 1. Jordin
2. Melinda
3. Lakisha
4. Blake Is it a bad sign the VFTW didn't bother to get Lakisha up to #1 on this poll? They got Phil to the top very quickly after he was picked. Won vs Lost States
Idol.....Won.....Lost.....W-L
Jordin.....24.....1.....23
Blake......18.....1.....17
Melinda.....5.....7.....-2
Lakisha.....1....33....-32
Tie.........0.....6
No Votes....2.....2 Averages Idol.....Ave.....W Ave
Jordin......1.28.....1.17
Blake.......2.39.....2.83
Melinda.....2.74.....2.44
Lakisha.....3.59.....3.56
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Fishercat 4168 desperate attention whore postings
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05-09-07, 03:35 PM (EST)
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99. "RE: Top 4 Predictions" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-09-07 AT 03:39 PM (EST)This leaves a very good possibility that Melinda gets Daughtry'd, which makes this F4 a very good comparison to last season where Blake = Taylor (both male, exciting performers with lacking vocal skills for this point but with a flair that makes them exciting) Jordin = Katharine (most attractive female left with a booming voice who survived an early DI scare or two) Lakisha = Elliot (inexplicably makes the F3 spot after many voting scares, a lack of attractiveness (is that a word?), and a good voice that can be boring) Melinda = Daughtry (uber-pimped vocalist who does not care to try songs out of his/her range, even if he/she can) But since the VFTW pick is Lakisha, she'll probably go, depriving us of the shocker. And by very good possibility, I mean more than 0%
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