The Amazing Race   American Idol   The Apprentice   The Bachelor   The Bachelorette   Big Brother   The Biggest Loser
Dancing with the Stars   So You Think You Can Dance   Survivor   Top Model   The Voice   The X Factor       Reality TV World
   
Reality TV World Message Board Forums
PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats, but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are encouraged to read the complete guidelines. As entertainment critic Roger Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
"Coincidence...or precedent??"
Email this topic to a friend
Printer-friendly version of this topic
Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)
Archived thread - Read only 
Previous Topic | Next Topic 
Conferences Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)
Original message

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"

01-12-02, 02:48 PM (EST)
Click to EMail munson Click to send private message to munson Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
"Coincidence...or precedent??"
Although I tend to believe that the following is mostly coincidental, it doesn't hurt to keep it in mind for S4...

In all 3 versions we've seen:

- a male/female F2
- the dominant gender on the jury = gender of the winner
- the person brought along to the F2 has won the vote
- the same person has won both F4 and F3 IC
- F3 are from the same original tribe
- F3 has included 2 males and 1 female

Many of these can be written off to luck (2 male/1 female) or the result of game logic (F3 from same tribe), the most intersting, IMO, is the fact that the winner of F3 IC loses the jury vote. And even this could be dismissed had Colby picked Keith and, maybe, KimJ taking Lex...

  Top

  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Munson's Laws Krautboy 01-13-02 1
 Thanks, Munson! Silvergirl1 01-15-02 2
 Munson's Laws dabo 01-15-02 3
 RE: Coincidence...or precedent?? Fast Eddie 01-15-02 4
 Munson's laws JohnMc 01-15-02 5
   RE: Munson's laws SurvivorBlows 01-15-02 6
       RE: Munson's laws bondt007 01-15-02 7
       RE: Munson's laws JohnMc 01-15-02 8
           RE: Munson's laws Fast Eddie 01-15-02 9
               RE: Munson's laws JeffGator 01-16-02 10
                   Minority players dabo 01-17-02 11
                       Can of worms JohnMc 01-17-02 13
                           RE: Can of worms dabo 01-17-02 14
                   Jewish players Fast Eddie 01-17-02 12

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

Messages in this topic

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"

01-13-02, 01:19 PM (EST)
Click to EMail Krautboy Click to send private message to Krautboy Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
1. "Munson's Laws"
Munson: Great observations! I would like to name these "Munson's Laws".

I had also noticed Munson's Law #3 "the person brought along to the F2 has won the vote", but I hadn't thought of the others. Yes we should definately file these away for consideration later...

In fact, there has already been a spoiler reported to support Munson's Law #1 "a male/female F2"!

I believe...!!

I'll be studying "Munson's Laws" as the new season progresses...

Good Work Munson!


Krautboy

  Top

Silvergirl1 9342 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

01-15-02, 03:52 AM (EST)
Click to EMail Silvergirl1 Click to send private message to Silvergirl1 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
2. "Thanks, Munson!"
I enjoyed reading your observations about the similarities in the first 3 Survivor programs. I have noticed another trend that may be developing - the winner of S1 was male, S2 was female and S3 was male again. Do we put all of our money on the winner of S4 being female. I guess we will just have to wait and watch.

Silvergirl

  Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

01-15-02, 10:16 AM (EST)
Click to EMail dabo Click to send private message to dabo Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
3. "Munson's Laws"
LAST EDITED ON 01-15-02 AT 10:21 AM (EST)

>- a male/female F2
possibly not a coincidence; with the exception of the Tina/Colby pairing, however, luck was involved in this, Richard was lucky Kelly W. changed her vote and decided to kick Sue off the island, Kim J. was lucky the final two challenges were ones which she could win (had the final challenge not been endurance, Ethan and Lex could have possibly ignored their illnesses for the competition and won, neither were in shape for a long duration period, though).

>- the dominant gender on the
>jury = gender of the
>winner
possibly not a coincidence; it does seem that there are usually one or two jurists who prefer to see their own gender win, which could be what tips it one way or the other if the vote is close.

>- the person brought along to
>the F2 has won the
>vote
not a coincidence: until we see someone who is the last surviving member of their original tribe get to the F2 by winning a string of immunities, the person who votes off the last jurist is motivated by tribal politics.

>- the same person has won
>both F4 and F3 IC
not a coincidence: in all three cases the f4/f3 immunities went to the player who had been least defeated by the environment.
>
>- F3 are from the same
>original tribe
not a coincidence: as previously stated, the only way this will be broken is by a last remaining other tribesperson winning a key immunity or two.

>- F3 has included 2 males
>and 1 female
coincidence: if this were two of one gender and one of the other, however, it would not be a coincidence, as the early team-building part of the game promotes a mix where the team is greater than the sum of its parts, meaning it is a good mix of personalities, talents, etc., which in turn promotes a gender balance (and as well, age balance).
>
"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

  Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

01-15-02, 10:53 AM (EST)
Click to EMail Fast%20Eddie Click to send private message to Fast%20Eddie Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
4. "RE: Coincidence...or precedent??"
Yes, I was noticing some of these same factors (while watching during my 6 weeks on vacation in Florida where i had no internet access). Some are related, and quite possibly manipulated. For example, for TV entertainment purposes, a M/F F2 is ideal. This can be influenced by having the last two ICs favor females, as they have. (I thus predict that if you have a F4 of 3 F and 1 M, the ICs will be different and favor M.)

Having the F3 from the same tribe is an obvious result of the strong tribal loyalties and early alliances. This is bad TV, as "Pagonging" is too predictable. They tried to neutralize this with the clumsy and unfair 3-3 switch. It helped, but further changes are needed.

The dominant jury gender is surely a coincidence; I've seen no evidence of sexism among the players.

As for the person "brought along" being the final winner, I believe this is also coincidence. The situations were different in each case. In S1, Rich set it up as an intentional strategic coup. In S2, it was merely the mother of all blunders. And S3 was different again. Besides, it's not really all that significant. Most of the jury is in place by then and have probably made up their minds.

If you flipped a coin and it came up heads 3 times in a row, you wouldn't attach a lot of significance to it. Similarily, we shouldn't read too deeply just yet. However, I agree that it's worth keeping an eye on, especially those factors that are open to manipulation.

  Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"

01-15-02, 12:12 PM (EST)
Click to EMail JohnMc Click to send private message to JohnMc Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
5. "Munson's laws"
Munson, I think you have definitely noticed the trends, and a strategic player of subsequent survivors will take these into account and use them to his/her advantage. This is not only to try to create a similar situation and taste its rewards but also to break the cycle to come out on top.

M/F F2 isn't required for good tv, since the last ep has had either 3 or 4 and always includes at least 1 woman. (Having at least 1 woman remain IS good tv, just for ratings sake.)

Dominant gender of the jury I think is a big part, though I think Brandon's place could have potentially made it interesting. I think a gay guy (or a lesbian if one ever makes it) could easily be a swing vote on an otherwise 3-3 jury simply because of their nature. But to play devil's advocate again, the guys haven't always just voted for the guys, nor the girls for the girls. In S1, all of Tagi voted for Rich (sticking w/the alliance), Pagong (opposing the alliance) voted for Kelly except for Greg, who became the swing vote. S2 didn't follow any pattern. S3 was a lot more like S1 in that the alliance stuck together to vote for Ethan. TBird and Frank, who also became Boron at the swap, also voted for Ethan, so you could take that as a Boron sweep of votes.

I think it is coincidence that F4 and F3 were always won by the same person. The first 2 were immunity runs from ep10 to the end, and we didn't see that in S3.

F3 have always been from the same tribe, but the original tribe has lasted for different lengths of time. In S1, the F5 were of the same tribe. In S2, it didn't happen until F3. S3 it was F4. The only way for that to not happen is for the opposing tribe to go on an immunity run. Otherwise, tribal allinaces will dominate.

F3 almost didn't have 2/1. If KJ had lost the F4 Fallen Comrades, then it would have been an all male F3.

Truth be known, though, EPM can manipulate his selection of ICs to favor a competitor or a gender. He'll make whatever is good tv.

Here is something to notice: the winner has always been white. Rich being gay is good for minorities, but the farthest a black person has gotten is F7. When will a black person win?

  Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

01-15-02, 12:33 PM (EST)
Click to EMail SurvivorBlows Click to send private message to SurvivorBlows Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
6. "RE: Munson's laws"
>Here is something to notice:
>the winner has always been white. Rich being gay
>is good for minorities, but the farthest a black person
>has gotten is F7. When will a black person
>win?

I'm not sure what your trying to say with this -- you can make the same case for hispanics, asians, any other minority (some of which haven't even been represented on the show yet.)

But I don't know how this can be considered a surprise -- minorities have probably comprised about 10% of all survivors, the odds of them not winning is statistically not a surprise. The fact is that for whatever reason, most of the black survivors have pretty much sucked at the gameplay -- from Clarence and his canned food, to Linda and her psycho show, to lazy Gervase. So far I'd say Nick (who?) and Alicia were the best candidates, but both were unlucky enough to end up in the tribe that ended up getting pagonged.

If we're playing coincidences, than how about this one -- two of the three winners (and both of the male winners) have been native New Englanders (one from RI, the other from MA.)

-SB

  Top

bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"

01-15-02, 12:47 PM (EST)
Click to EMail bondt007 Click to send private message to bondt007 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
7. "RE: Munson's laws"
LAST EDITED ON 01-16-02 AT 02:07 PM (EST)

I posted this in a Spoiler 3 thread - the wrong place after I saw this thread.
Here is an observation for Munson's Laws as well: The one that has domminated the IC's POST merge has not won: Kelly (F2), Colby (F2) and now Lex (F3).

  Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"

01-15-02, 03:40 PM (EST)
Click to EMail JohnMc Click to send private message to JohnMc Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
8. "RE: Munson's laws"
Sorry, SB, not trying to be racist or anything like that at all. There are definitely old/young, black/white represented on all Survivors so far. S1 had Ramona and Gervase (who, agreed, just didn't play the game very well) plus gay Rich. S2 had Alicia and Nick, and had Mike not burned himself would probably have lasted longer. S3 was nice with the token black people Linda and Clarence (who made some bad mistakes from square 1, including BeanGate and the OFA) as well as Puerto Rican Jessie (who, again, didn't know how to play well) and gay Brandon.

If we are looking for a pattern, let's look at how S1 was won by a gay man, S2 by a straight married woman, and S3 by a single straight man. S4 should be a lesbian in a committed relationship.

  Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

01-15-02, 04:27 PM (EST)
Click to EMail Fast%20Eddie Click to send private message to Fast%20Eddie Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
9. "RE: Munson's laws"
I sure hope people don't get into this racist thing. I think CBS is trying hard to present a reasonable cross-section of the populace, with a range of ages, home locales, occupations, and, yes, race. Based on US demographics, two or three blacks are not "token" but in fact a reasonably accurate reflection. I'd like to see more Latinos and some Asians (on the assumption that contestant diversity is a good thing), but there's only so much you can do when you're trying to satisfy many quotas with only a handful of people.
  Top

JeffGator 1401 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"

01-16-02, 11:10 PM (EST)
Click to EMail JeffGator Click to send private message to JeffGator Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
10. "RE: Munson's laws"
here's a recap on how my jewish brothers have done in the game:
S1: Sean made it to final 5, bitchy stacey was like 2nd booted off
S2:no jews
S3: Ethan won

I don't think any asians have played the game yet, have they?
I do think a black person will win survivor but the ones in the past either were either unlucky or didn't play well. Ramona didn't play well at all, Gervase didn't start trying until the end of the game, Linda made alot of enemies with the younger Samburus, Alicia was too much of a threat and was voted off, and Clarence ate the beans. None of them have made alliances with the winning people yet. (Alicia made the alliance with Jeff and some others but they were kicked off) (Linda made her alliance with Samburu elders who were beaten and voted off by the younger ones) (The rest never made real alliances).

  Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

01-17-02, 01:40 AM (EST)
Click to EMail dabo Click to send private message to dabo Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
11. "Minority players"
So far MB has cast the game with an eye to creating a demographic mix, which unfortunately leaves players from minorities IRL in even more obvious minorities within the game. Richard is the only minority player so far to have reached the final four. However, if we look at it, MB seems to put two minority players in each tribe from the outset:
Gervase/Ramona
Richard/Sonia
Alicia/Nick
Kel/Mitchell (because of his height, otherwise no comment)
Clarence/Jessie
Brandon/Linda.
If, however, we break this down to pre-jury, jury, final two, the numbers become 7/4/1, or 7 to 5 if you prefer. My conclusion, therefore, would be that the game is not rigged against minority players, it really is a matter of individual ability (and some luck). And also that we may have something else to add to Munson's Laws: there will be two minority players in each original tribe.
  Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"

01-17-02, 12:52 PM (EST)
Click to EMail JohnMc Click to send private message to JohnMc Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
13. "Can of worms"
I hope no one really thinks I think that Survivor is rigged against minorities. All I'm saying is that it's been an all white final since the show's inception.

Look at it this way: If 10% of the world is gay, then there won't be another gay person in F2 till S6 at the earliest, and possibly not until S10. It's just statistics, and that's all.

btw, what is Sonia's minority status???

And Mitchell wasn't the gay one, Jeff was.

  Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

01-17-02, 01:35 PM (EST)
Click to EMail dabo Click to send private message to dabo Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
14. "RE: Can of worms"
Mitchell's minority status is his height, and okay maybe that's stretching the point. Both Mitchell and Varner have denied being gay, and I'm basically a "live and let live" sort so I'm willing to take them at their word. Sonia's minority status is that she is a lesbian. I'm not outing her by saying that, it is something she is open about. Fortunately, being a cancer survivor is not as rare these days as it used to be.

Anyway, I don't think Survivor is rigged against minorities, it seems to me that MB has always been inclusive in his casting. If there is any factor that works against a minority player, it seems to me, it is simply what other players, such as Tom, bring to the game.

  Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

01-17-02, 08:27 AM (EST)
Click to EMail Fast%20Eddie Click to send private message to Fast%20Eddie Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
12. "Jewish players"
Educate me. I honestly had no idea any of those players were Jewish. Nor did my wife. Okay, sometimes it's fairly obvious, with strong Semitic features or a clearly Jewish surname (wouldn't that indicate Kimmi was Jewish?). But the thought that some of these players were Jewish never crossed our minds until Tom made the comment about Ethan.
  Top


Remove

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
about this site   •   advertise on this site  •   contact us  •   privacy policy   •