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"DialIdol Scores and Predictions"
xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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02-21-07, 00:45 AM (EST)
 
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"DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-21-07 AT 01:01 AM (EST)The data below are for the Top 12 Guys, as of 12:30 AM board time: Ranked by DialIdol score
| Rank | Contestant | Score | Margin of Error |
|---|
| 1-3 | Sundance Head | 23.45 | 3.569 | | 1-10 | Chris Richardson | 17.8 | 3.698 | | 1-10 | Sanjaya Malakar | 16.5 | 3.728 | | 2-11 | Blake Lewis | 15.4 | 3.752 | | 2-11 | AJ Tabaldo | 15.05 | 3.76 | | 2-11 | Phil Stacey | 15.02 | 3.76 | | 2-11 | Brandon Rogers | 14.92 | 3.763 | | 2-11 | Chris Sligh | 13.98 | 3.784 | | 2-12 | Rudy Cardenas | 11.42 | 3.839 | | 2-12 | Jared Cotter | 11.18 | 3.845 | | 4-12 | Nicholas Pedro | 7.98 | 3.913 | | 9-12 | Paul Kim | 6.08 | 3.953 |
Phil and Chris R. have also taken the top spot, but Paul has been consistently in last place. Ranked by Busy Signals:
| Rank | Contestant | Score |
|---|
| 1 | Chris Richardson | 22.8 | | 2 | Sundance Head | 22.73 | | 3 | Phil Stacey | 21.26 | | 4 | Blake Lewis | 18.9 | | 5 | Brandon Rogers | 17.55 | | 6 | Sanjaya Malakar | 16.48 | | 7 | Chris Sligh | 14.87 | | 8 | Rudy Cardenas | 13.09 | | 9 | Jared Cotter | 12.77 | | 10 | AJ Tabaldo | 12.22 | | 11 | Nicholas Pedro | 9.95 | | 12 | Paul Kim | 6.29 |
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-07, 09:54 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
Second to the last actually. As of, well, right now, here are the DialIdol rankings. I'm not copying the details anymore because I personally don't know what to make of the numbers myself:By DialIdol Score: 1-4 Sundance Head
1-10 Sanjaya Malakar
1-10 Chris Richardson
1-12 AJ Tabaldo
2-12 Blake Lewis
2-12 Phil Stacey
2-12 Brandon Rogers
2-12 Chris Sligh
2-12 Rudy Cardenas
2-12 Jared Cotter
4-12 Paul Kim
4-12 Nick Pedro By Busy Signals: 1. Chris Richardson
2. Sundance Head
3. Phil Stacey
4. Blake Lewis
5. Sanjaya Malakar
6. Brandon Rogers
7. Chris Sligh
8. Rudy Cardenas
9. AJ Tabaldo
10. Jared Cotter
11. Nick Pedro
12. Paul Kim
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tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-07, 11:10 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
I gotta say, I'm not really happy about this.Not surprised to see Sanjaya near the top, he's the one that's gonna get the tweens and the grannies, but SUNDANCE? He hasn't been any good since his very first audition. I was shocked he made the top 24 in the first place. I've read where the number of hits VFTW gets indicates that they don't really have the power to make a big difference. But Sundance got some serious early buzz - most of what I've heard is Sundance and/or Chris S. So instead of VFTW, I'm thinking Chris S's fanbase thinks he's safe, and Sundance's was dialing like mad to save him. The one that REALLY confuses me is Chris R -- he's all kinda suck. What the smell is he doing at the top of the list? YUCK. I'm sorry to see Nick at the bottom - I actually did some Nick & AJ voting last night because I think both of them have more charm and more potential than several others. I also did some voting for Chris S, Brandon & Blake. Clearly my tastes do not reflect the majority of the voting public. I wonder if these early stages have a younger voting base? If older voters with more...varied taste wait until top 12? Or just wait until someone really catches their attention?
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Glow 14353 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-07, 11:14 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
"The one that REALLY confuses me is Chris R -- he's all kinda suck. What the smell is he doing at the top of the list? YUCK."ACK!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL *runs and hides again*
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Fishercat 4168 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-07, 01:16 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
Later on, I think you're right that VFTW doesn't have the impact. But this early in the competition, I think they do. Watching the progression for Sundance from the East Coast voting, really early, he started near the bottom. Then the guy who runs VFTW made him the official choice near the end of the show. Sundance then proceeded, over the next couple of hours to vault from the lower area to the top very easily on Dialidol's rankings.Consider who is voting now A. Set voting bases. These are people who will vote for two hours for a single contestant out of pure fandom. B. Performance Voters. Viewers who will vote for their favorites on a given night, but not many times, and they often base it on how they did on a given night. Really, what else is there? There are people who may be part of multiple set voting bases who split votes. At this point, both of those groups are small for an AI competition. The auditions provided a set voting base for a guy like Chris Sligh or Blake. Maybe a Chris R. as well. I'd say 4 or 5 males have a significant group like that. So, it comes down to B's. With that, who stood out last night? No one. Phil Stacey, Chris R., and Sanjaya did okay, Chris S. had a good night IMO. But no one had one of those performances which compels people to vote for them (like McPhee in R1 last year, performing "Think") based on singing alone. So, who does that leave in voting power? The previously mentioned blocs. That is where VFTW comes in. Generally, VFTW will have similar voting power throughout the competition, assuming no one leaves or comes into the voting fold. So, they lose power along the way as Groups A and B consolidate into less groups. For instance, in the beginning, the votes for Blake and Chris may be split. If Chris R. leaves, Blake will gain a bunch of his votes. However, VFTW, until a person is eliminated, will put all their voting power towards one person. So their power is largest early, since while everyone else is split, they aren't. I figure that's why Sundance is way ahead in Dialidol.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-07, 01:40 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
college has only made you even smarter (hard to imagine...you brain!!)...nice analysis!
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-07, 10:48 PM (EST)
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10. "DialIdol Scores for Top 12 Females, as of 11PM" |
Keeping track of these to see how the contestants' rank move up or down in time.By DialIdol Score 1 Lakisha Jones
2-3 Melinda Doolittle
2-6 Stephanie Edwards --- 3-11 Jordin Sparks
3-11 Antonella Barba
3-11 Gina Glocksen
4-12 Haley Scarnato
4-12 Sabrina Sloan
4-12 Amy Krebs
4-12 Nicole Tranquillo
4-12 Leslie Hunt
7-12 Alaina Alexander Everyone under the break are candidates for elimination as per DialIdol.
By Busy Signals:
1. Lakisha Jones - 81% busy signals!
2. Melinda Doolittle
3. Stephanie Edwards
4. Antonella Barba
5. Jordin Sparks
6. Gina Glocksen
7. Haley Scarnato
8. Amy Krebs
9. Sabrina Sloan
10. Nicole Tranquillo
11. Leslie Hunt
12. Alaina Alexander
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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02-22-07, 01:43 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: DialIdol Scores for Top 12 Females, as of 1:30 AM" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-22-07 AT 08:52 AM (EST)Final DialIdol Scores, as of 9 AM: By DialIdol Score AND by Busy Signals: 1 Lakisha Jones
2-5 Antonella Barba
2-10 Melinda Doolittle
2-11 Jordin Sparks
2-11 Stephanie Edwards
3-11 Haley Scarnato
3-12 Nicole Tranquillo
3-12 Leslie Hunt
3-12 Gina Glocksen
3-12 Sabrina Sloan
4-12 Amy Krebs
7-12 Alaina Alexander Possibly eliminated, according to DialIdol are Jordin down to Alaina. Alaina actually has a score of 0, which probably means that very few in the DialIdol community voted for her (not really shocking after her performance, though). Antonella stays in second place after Lakisha who has held the top spot all throughout the voting period. I guess Antonella's controversial pictures are actually helping her. VFTW also has Antonella as their official pick, so I guess that factors into the equation. Almost half of calls for Lakisha got busy signals, while only around 1 out of 50 calls were busy signals for Alaina.
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moonbaby 17120 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-07, 11:28 AM (EST)
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13. "Could be" |
the VFTW crowd rallied for their girl.
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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-07, 11:37 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Could be" |
That HAS to be it.
 
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-07, 12:02 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Could be" |
AND i LOVE IT bc she should not be here at all!! serves em right!
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-07, 00:20 AM (EST)
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16. "Early DialIdol Scores for the Top 20 Guys" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-07 AT 00:20 AM (EST)Since around midnight, board time: By DialIdol Scores: 1-3 Sundance Head
1-9 (B3) Sanjaya Malakar
1-10 (B3) Chris Sligh
2-10 (B3) Jared Cotter
2-10 (B3) Phil Stacey
2-10 (B3) Blake Lewis
2-10 (B3) AJ Tabaldo
2-10 (B3) Chris Richardson
2-10 (B3) Brandon Rogers
3-10 (B3) Nicholas Pedro By Busy Signals: 1. Sundance Head
2. Chris Sligh
3. Phil Stacey
4. Sanjaya Malakar
5. Blake Lewis
6. Jared Cotter
7. AJ Tabaldo
8. Chris Richardson
9. Brandon Rogers
10. Nicholas Pedro
So far, it's been Brandon and Nick at the bottom two positions ever since I started tracking DialIdol scores. Sanjaya has since jumped from 7th place to 2nd place in DialIdol scores, but it's Sundance who has held the top spot for the several hours that the voting window has been open. Chris, Phil, and Blake were all down one spot after the surge of Sanjaya, AJ, and Jared. Sundance is so far the only person who, according to DialIdol, is safe until next week.
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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02-28-07, 09:04 AM (EST)
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17. "Final DialIdol Scores for the Top 20 Guys" |
By DialIdol Score:1-6 Sundance Head
1-8 (B3) Sanjaya Malakar
1-10 (B3) Chris Sligh
1-10 (B3) Blake Lewis
1-10 (B3) Phil Stacey
1-10 (B3) Jared Cotter
2-10 (B3) AJ Tabaldo
2-10 (B3) Chris Richardson
3-10 (B3) Nicholas Pedro
3-10 (B3) Brandon Rogers
Sundance still leads, but a minor shakeup has happened in the middle of the list, with Blake and Jared switching places.
By Busy Signals: 1. Sundance Head - 24.1%
2. Chris Sligh - 23.03%
3. Blake Lewis - 19.6%
4. Phil Stacey - 19.48%
5. Sanjaya Malakar - 17.33%
6. Jared Cotter - 15.49%
7. AJ Tabaldo - 15.32%
8. Chris Richardson - 14.86%
9. Nicholas Pedro - 10.57%
10. Brandon Rogers - 10.28% Sundance leading, Nick and Brandon at the bottom. How predictable.
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Glow 14353 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-07, 10:45 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: pfffft" |
*whispers* I liked Fantasia and Ruben. I didn't vote though. I didn't vote until Bo. I don't think...
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Glow 14353 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-07, 10:38 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: Final DialIdol Scores for the Top 20 Guys" |
I think everybody assumes he is safe. Don't make me have to vote, emy. *hides in corner*
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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02-28-07, 06:04 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Final DialIdol Scores for the Top 20 Guys" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-07 AT 06:43 PM (EST)Hi priest, I've had my finger ready to click the refresh button on the DialIdol website since I started this thread. Actually, there has been very little movement in their rankings, but it does change. For example, Sanjaya was a 1-9, but he ended up 1-8 in the final rankings. Also, Brandon and Nick have been flip-flopping for the bottom spot, and Chris Richardson wasn't always 3rd to the last. Also, if you check out one of their features (Geo-sumn-sumn), you'll see that most DialIdol users are in the East Coast. For example, DI only registered 13 votes for the entire state of Washington and less than 100 for Oregon. Combined, that's less than the number of votes for Jared in Rhode Island. It would also seem that DI is registering the most votes from the southern states, CA, and the east coast. Additional info: Most DI users in CA, GA, and the Carolinas (among many other states) voted for Chris Sligh. Sundance (1st in rank) takes home UT, TN, LA, NH, and NJ. Brandon (bottom two) takes OH and TX. Even Jared, who I didn't think was that good has three states under his belt: NY, AZ, and AL. Sanjaya, oddly, doesn't win a single state even if he's in the second spot. No data for AK, HI, ID, WY, ME, and ND.
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geekboy 1788 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-07, 10:52 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Final DialIdol Scores for the Top 20 Guys" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-07 AT 10:54 AM (EST)I refuse to look at DialIdol until i'm doing w/ my rankings/predictions...and oddly my predictions agree with DialIdol. I'm stunned. Brandon did come out very low. Again, Sanjaya is the young-girlie-girl votes. That is too be predicted. Sundance surprises me. I don't get that one. I like the guy, but c'mon, WAY out in teh lead? Also, even though i'm not a huge fan, Chris R. that far down? *scratches head* Perhaps two weeks of essentially the same 'song and dance'? That's the only way i can explain it? should be an interesting night tomorrow night. Watch them put Chris R. up against Brandon or Nick as the final elimination. geekboy 
'I love puppies.' - S. Cowell
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Fishercat 4168 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-07, 02:19 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Final DialIdol Scores for the Top 20 Guys" |
To me, the raw numbers don't mean much since the group voting on dialidol is a flawed body: internet users who are also idol freaks. Basically, this group of people would have a pattern in terms of who they are voting for, preferring A to B, for instance.Now, if you polled a bunch of 11 year olds who thought Sanjaya was cute, then the raw numbers would be different. Personally, I think DI does it right by comparing busy signals, since that is the whole voting base in a specific area. All I get from the raw numbers is that, among DI users, Blake/Phil/Chris/Sundance are popular.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-07, 06:29 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Final DialIdol Scores for the Top 20 Guys" |
Although a lot of 11 year olds will obsessively dial the phone for 2 hours if they can get away with it.It has been pretty clear watching this over all that when they include the busy signal percentage (which samples the American public as a whole, rather than just the people who will run dialidol) they get results that tend to match what happens on the show. The poll results will always be skewed if you don't have a good sample of the general public. 
It's a tribe creation!Downloading the new version, I never bothered to get the old one to work, and I don't care to sit there and dial the phone over and over myself anymore.
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CattyChat 3379 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-07, 11:33 AM (EST)
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29. "Anyone Use the DialIdol Software?" |
So, has anyone here downloaded and use the software to do their voting for them? If so, do you think it works? Is the actual software making a difference in the voting?? I personally hate wasting my time dialing over and over and over for contestant(s) and wish each phone line had a limit (a la DWTS) so that people had to be serious about who they chose. Last night I did waste an hour voting for Nick, because I don't think he should be ousted & I knew he was in trouble due to the Dial Idol stats from last week. The unlimited voting thing is ridiculous. 
One nation, under Romber...
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CattyChat 3379 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-07, 12:11 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Anyone Use the DialIdol Software?" |
Yes, I just went over to the Web site and it advertises "free" software to download to do the dialing for you. If that carp really works, no wonder certain contestants get so many votes and are saved for no explicable reason. I can't fathom a sane person spending 2 hours voting for someone crappy, just because they want to screw with AI. As I type that I realize that there are probably many bizarro peeps out there who WOULD waste 2 hours of their life voting "for the worst." That's what makes the good ole USA interesting, I suppose.
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-01-07, 00:03 AM (EST)
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37. "Early Scores for the Top 10 Girls" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-01-07 AT 00:04 AM (EST)As of midnight, board time By DialIdol Scores: 1-3 Lakisha Jones - 17.02
1-3 Melinda Doolittle - 17.02
1-4 Antonella Barba - 14.82
3-10 (B3) Sabrina Sloan - 8.24
4-10 (B3) Jordin Sparks - 7.38
4-10 (B3) Alaina Alexander - 7.27
4-10 (B3) Stephanie Edwards - 6.87
4-10 (B3) Gina Glocksen - 6.82
4-10 (B3) Haley Scarnato - 6.64
4-10 (B3) Leslie Hunt - 4.2 By Busy Percentages: 1. Lakisha Jones - 27.77%
2. Melinda Doolittle - 27.1%
3. Antonella Barba - 20.38%
4. Sabrina Sloan - 11.13%
5. Jordin Sparks - 10.99%
6. Alaina Alexander - 10.07%
7. Stephanie Edwards - 9.27%
8. Haley Scarnato - 8.79%
9. Gina Glocksen - 8.38%
10. Leslie Hunt - 4.3% By Raw Numbers: 1. Melinda Doolittle
2. Gina Glocksen
3. Lakisha Jones
4. Haley Scarnato
5. Leslie Hunt
6. Jordin Sparks
7. Stephanie Edwards
8. Sabrina Sloan
9. Antonella Barba
10. Alaina Alexander
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-01-07, 09:13 AM (EST)
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39. "Final Scores for the Top 10 Girls" |
By DialIdol Scores:1-3 Melinda Doolittle
1-6 Lakisha Jones
1-10 (B3) Antonella Barba
2-10 (B3) Jordin Sparks
2-10 (B3) Alaina Alexander
2-10 (B3) Sabrina Sloan
3-10 (B3) Haley Scarnato
3-10 (B3) Leslie Hunt
3-10 (B3) Stephanie Edwards
3-10 (B3) Gina Glocksen Stephanie and Gina are now at the bottom, with the tie between Melinda and Lakisha already broken, Melinda emerging on top. By Busy Percentages: 1. Melinda Doolittle
2. Lakisha Jones
3. Antonella Barba
4. Jordin Sparks
5. Sabrina Sloan
6. Alaina Alexander
7. Stephanie Edwards
8. Haley Scarnato
9. Gina Glocksen
10. Leslie Hunt
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-07, 03:00 AM (EST)
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40. "3 AM DialIdol scores for the Top 8 Guys" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-07 AT 03:54 AM (EST)Snidget's keeping track of this in the East Coast Update thread, but I'd like to see my own thread being used... even if it's just by me. By DialIdol Scores: 1-8 (B3) Chris Richardson 10.91
1-8 (B3) Chris Sligh 10.9
1-8 (B3) Blake Lewis 9.94
1-8 (B3) Sanjaya Malakar 9.18
1-8 (B3) Brandon Rogers 8.89
1-8 (B3) Jared Cotter 7.78
1-8 (B3) Sundance Head 7.6
1-8 (B3) Phil Stacey 7.42 Well that's helpful. Anyway, the Chrises have been flip-flopping for the lead. The support for Sanjaya has boosted within the second half of the voting period landing him a spot in the top half of the list. It's Phil's fans that have failed him so far, with him landing dead last (although technically, they're all in the same spot). By Busy Signals: 1. Chris Sligh 21.98
2. Chris Richardson 21.66
3. Blake Lewis 20.56
4. Brandon Rogers 16.5
5. Sanjaya Malakar 15.86
6. Phil Stacey 15.02
7. Jared Cotter 13.07
8. Sundance Head 12.07 And results from a different website (VoteFair.com): 1. Blake Lewis
2. Chris Sligh
3. Chris Richardson
4. Phil Stacey
5. Sundance Head
6. Jared Cotter
7. Brandon Rogers
8. Sanjaya Malakar Vote fair doesn't take into account the votes in American Idol. It has a separate voting system where you can rank all of the contestants in terms of how much you like them. Then, they apply certain algorithms (dunno what) to determine the "popularity" of each contestant. They also limit their voting scheme to 1 vote per person (per IP address, I'm guessing). Check out their stats for AI5 if you want to see how credible their system is.
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-07, 08:18 AM (EST)
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42. "RE: 3 AM DialIdol scores for the Top 8 Guys" |
Sorry. I wasn't implying that you were trying to step on anyone's toes. I actually meant that as a joke, but I can see how you thought that was what I insinuated.  Peace!
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-07, 09:04 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: 3 AM DialIdol scores for the Top 8 Guys" |
Well, at least I got a reply from someone. ;)
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Glow 14353 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-07, 11:29 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: 3 AM DialIdol scores for the Top 8 Guys" |
Me too, X! I really love having this thread to refer to.
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-07, 10:37 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: 3 AM DialIdol scores for the Top 8 Guys" |
Well, I personally think Sanjaya was the worst of all three semifinals nights combined, but I also think that Sundance would have a solid fanbase outside VFTW. That said, I think both of them are safe for the time being, with the bootees being two of Brandon, Phil, and Jared (even Chris R.).Every guy who I thought wouldn't have a big fanbase have already left: AJ didn't make a huge enough impression in Week 2 to make up for Week 1
Nick has name recall (Vote for Pedro!) but had two mediocre performances
Rudy, as with AJ, didn't make much of an impact
Paul just plain sucked. Sanjaya and Sundance both have very solid fanbases to back them up. I would think that the four people I listed above would only appeal to some casual voters, who would pick Blake or Sligh over them. But out of the four of them, I'd say Chris R. is the safest. 
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-07, 11:02 AM (EST)
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50. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
Speaking of text votes, I remember one site that claimed to know the results of the text voting. I forgot the URL of the site, but I've seen one of the sample results that they "collected" and I remember it being pretty accurate.
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-07, 02:52 AM (EST)
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53. "3 AM DialIdol Scores and Predictions, Top 8 Girls" |
By DialIdol Score:1-2 Melinda Doolittle
1-2 Lakisha Jones
3-7 (B3) Gina Glocksen
3-8 (B3) Antonella Barba
3-8 (B3) Jordin Sparks
3-8 (B3) Sabrina Sloan
3-8 (B3) Haley Scarnato
4-8 (B3) Stephanie Edwards
By Busy Percentages:
1. Melinda Doolittle
2. Lakisha Jones
3. Gina Glocksen
4. Jordin Sparks
5. Antonella Barba
6. Stephanie Edwards
7. Haley Scarnato
8. Sabrina Sloan VoteFair Results: 1. Melinda Doolittle
2. Lakisha Jones
3. Jordin Sparks
4. Gina Glocksen
5. Sabrina Sloan
6. Stephanie Edwards
7. Haley Scarnato
8. Antonella Barba I haven't been keeping track of this so I can't tell you how each contestant moved in time. Anyway, I think these would be the final results for both websites.
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-07, 10:23 AM (EST)
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54. "RE: 3 AM DialIdol Scores and Predictions, Top 8 Girls" |
Thanks for the complete update! I think this is one of those times the producers can choose who they want to go and Simon said as much last night about who they wanted--the only twist would be the text votes.. Did anyone find the site that measures those?
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-07, 07:09 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: 3 AM DialIdol Scores and Predictions, Top 8 Girls" |
Well, it's just good to know that someone else other than me is reading this.  And yes, the same rankings held until the end of the voting period. Seems a couple of the favorite power belters are in trouble this week.
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-07, 10:15 PM (EST)
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57. "DialIdol Results and Predictions Summary, Pre-finals" |
Top 12 Guys:Actual: Paul, Rudy DialIdol Score: AJ, Blake, Phil, Brandon, Chris S., Rudy, Jared, Paul, Nick (2/2) Busy Signals: Nick, Paul (1/2) Rudy was 8th Top 12 Girls: Actual: Amy, Nicole DialIdol Score: Jordin, Stephanie, Haley, Nicole, Leslie, Gina, Sabrina, Amy, Alaina (4/4) Busy Signals: Amy, Alaina (2/4) Nicole was 7th Top 10 Guys: Actual: Nick, AJ DialIdol Score: Chris S., Blake, Phil, Jared, AJ, Chris, Nick, Brandon (6/6) Busy Signals: Nick, Brandon (3/6) AJ was 7th Top 10 Girls: Actual: Leslie, Alaina DialIdol Score: Antonella, Alaina, Sabrina, Haley, Leslie, Stephanie, Gina (8/8) Busy Signals: Gina, Leslie (4/8) Alaina was 6th Top 8 Guys: Actual: Jared, Sundance DialIdol Score: Everyone (10/10) Busy Signals: Jared, Sundance (6/10) Top 8 Girls: Actual: Antonella, Sabrina DialIdol Score: Gina, Antonella, Jordin, Sabrina, Haley, Stephanie (12/12) Busy Signals: Haley, Sabrina (7/12) Antonella was 5th So there. Based on the stats above, DialIdol has predicted who leaves the competition with 100% accuracy when looking at the DialIdol scores. BUT, they usually give a LOT of possible bootees. Looking at the busy signals, they have predicted who's leaving with a 58% success rate. Not bad, considering that the other person who left is always at the bottom half of their list.
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-14-07, 00:59 AM (EST)
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58. "1AM VoteFair / DialIdol scores" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-07 AT 01:32 AM (EST)You may think of this as a Will Go/Should Go list. DialIdol predicts who leaves, VoteFair predicts who we want to stay. DialIdol: 1-2 Melinda Doolittle
1-3 Lakisha Jones
2-4 Sanjaya Malakar
3-12 (B3) Jordin Sparks
4-12 (B3) Phil Stacey
4-12 (B3) Gina Glocksen
4-12 (B3) Chris Richardson
4-12 (B3) Haley Scarnato
4-12 (B3) Chris Sligh
4-12 (B3) Blake Lewis
4-12 (B3) Brandon Rogers
4-12 (B3) Stephanie Edwards VoteFair:
1. Melinda Doolittle
2. Lakisha Jones
3. Blake Lewis
4. Chris Sligh
5. Jordin Sparks
6. Gina Glocksen (tie)
6. Chris Richardson (tie)
8. Stephanie Edwards
9. Phil Stacey
10. Brandon Rogers
11. Haley Scarnato
12. Sanjaya Malakar
ETA: Sanjaya is VFTW's official pick. I guess that explains his position on both lists.
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Glow 14353 desperate attention whore postings
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03-14-07, 06:56 AM (EST)
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59. "RE: 1AM VoteFair / DialIdol scores" |
How do you explain Hayley's position on that list? (I really hate this season.)
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-14-07, 09:04 AM (EST)
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60. "RE: 1AM VoteFair / DialIdol scores" |
Slight change for the final rankings:By DialIdol Score: 1-2 Melinda Doolittle
1-3 Lakisha Jones
2-5 Sanjaya Malakar
3-12 (B3) Jordin Sparks
3-12 (B3) Brandon Rogers
4-12 (B3) Phil Stacey
4-12 (B3) Gina Glocksen
4-12 (B3) Chris Richardson
4-12 (B3) Haley Scarnato
4-12 (B3) Blake Lewis
4-12 (B3) Chris Sligh
4-12 (B3) Stephanie Edwards
Technically, it's fair game among everyone with a 4-12 ranking. Of course, that doesn't mean that either Jordin or Brandon is safe from getting voted off.
By Busy Signals: 1. Melinda Doolittle
2. Lakisha Jones
3. Sanjaya Malakar
4. Jordin Sparks
5. Phil Stacey
6. Stephanie Edwards
7. Chris Richardson
8. Haley Scarnato
9. Gina Glocksen
10. Chris Sligh
11. Blake Lewis
12. Brandon Rogers Four lovely ladies up top (yes, I'm including Sangina among them) and three dashing gentlemen at the bottom. As for explaining Haley's position, well, like I said above, she's not really that much better off in her rankings than Blake, Chris, or Stephanie. If she's safe, then I guess it will have something to do with Simon's ultra-positive comments.
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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings
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03-14-07, 11:12 AM (EST)
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64. "RE: 1AM VoteFair / DialIdol scores" |
Yep.
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xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings
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03-15-07, 07:20 PM (EST)
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68. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
And with that, we get our first error from DialIdol. They listed Sanjaya as 2-5, but he landed in the bottom three this week.
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-07, 02:16 AM (EST)
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69. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
the conspiracy theorists, including the VFTW turds, are using this as proof that the bottom 3 was rigged. I've always really resisted that tempting trap. Maybe because then I really couldn't justify watching, I suppose. What are the theories to explain it? text votes don't seem to be enough. can someone explain in a few simple sentences how they measure the busy-ness of this world? Is it just based on people who use their technology to vote?? that doesn't seem like a good enough sample to me. It also presumes that their members are voting for all 12, right? I realize I could go read their detailed explanations. But I'm cheating and asking you educated folks instead.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-07, 06:08 AM (EST)
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70. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
They track who everyone is voting for, so they would know if one of the 12 person never got a single vote from the many thousands of people who use the service.Now it does seem that VFTW is using dial-idol so that may inflate the final prediction for the VFTW. They base the prediction on both who the people using the service are voting for (which can be a biased sample) and how much of the time they get a busy signal rather than get through. That is how they measure busy-ness. I've sometimes spent time casting even votes between several people. There are some that are busy most of the time the entire East Coast voting period. Other people's lines are hardly ever busy. What % of the time the line is busy gives you a feel for how everyone else is voting. People who don't use the autodialer have often "thrown a vote" to someone to see if that line is busy, and sometimes changed who they were voting for most of the time based on that. It isn't something only Dialidol thought of. One thought is that they seem to have more capacity this year than before (which if they want to boast at the finale they have more votes than ever they would need to do as it is obvious that they usually are maxing out the system--the whole it was only a tiny number of votes that separate several contestants thing tends to IMO indicate that every second a vote can get through it was getting through. Idol has gotten a lot of complaints that no one can ever get through the last few weeks). That may mean that only the very top people have enough busy signals to tell them apart from the pack. This will IMO get better as the season goes on and there are more people voting for fewer contestants (as it has in the past) They have tweaked the algorithm periodically and I think early in the season usually is not as good as later in the season (they have old data up there and you can see that they don't always get the bottom three exactly perfect). They may tweak the math for producing the rankings again after a couple more weeks when they can tell what is going on this year. If a basic assumption (like how many phone calls they can receive) changes a lot that will throw of any computer model of anything. Which is all this is. It's just like when the computer model gets the weather prediction wrong and it is 10 degrees warmer or colder than it should have been because the front didn't do the usual thing. The primary purpose is to be an autodialer for people who want an autodialer. That it has some predictive value is interesting, but not the main purpose of the program. 
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow man, and I hate people like that!" Tom Lehrer
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Fishercat 4168 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-07, 11:58 AM (EST)
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71. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
Snidget pretty much nailed it, so I'll probably be repeating most of what was said, but to address a specific point or twoA. If a person does not receive a single vote and busy signal from the service (I believe Alaina did not, for instance, in the Round of 24), the number is recorded as "0" and placed in last. This is a statistical error and shouldn't be used to say that she'll go home. The fact that no one voted for her on DI could be a clue, but it's no guarantee B. From what I understand, using their algorithm, they create a score based on the rate of busy singals and number of votes from the service. The number of votes may be what skewed Sanjaya's results if we assume AI to be legitimate (that's a whole 'nother topic). But I don't know the specifics, so refer to Snidget
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-07, 02:22 PM (EST)
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72. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
Thanks, both of you.This was my missing piece of perspective, for my own interpretations of DI. That it's entirely based on the busy signals that their own program encounters while delivering its user services. Now I need to ponder (well in theory anyway, lol, if I actually care enough to ponder) whether that would skew the results much. Methinks it could, in cases like right now where there are many finalists with relatively small fanbases. And really?? VFTW members use it? How very interesting. And it makes sense. So ... hmmm. How would that affect create a false positive? This is the sort of mental game I'm usually good at. But ... I guess I don't necessarily have the technical understanding needed to accurately get the clues. I was thinking of trying the DI thing next week, since I've lost my old urge to vote much. But then I read (here I think) that you must have dial-up? Oh well.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-07, 07:12 PM (EST)
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73. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-07 AT 07:13 PM (EST)You have to have a modem hooked to a phone line for it to dial the numbers from. I have DSL, it uses the DSL connection to report the results, it uses the phone line to make the phone calls to American Idol. I don't know if you could use it with dial up as usually you can either be on the phone or on the internet but not both at the same time. They have what you need listed on the website. 
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow man, and I hate people like that!" Tom Lehrer
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-07, 01:38 AM (EST)
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74. "RE: DialIdol Scores and Predictions" |
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah a Tarheel.how did I miss that before? but .. my school just blew it's first round game, so I guess I need to just be submissive this time. omg. spear me now. *frantically whistles devil in a blue dress*
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