LAST EDITED ON 01-10-02 AT 06:09 PM (EST)

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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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Let's get the big one out of the way first -- we're going with ETHAN to win.

For all you folks talking about "face time," let's remember that Tina didn't exactly dominate the screen -- even over those within her own tribe -- in S2 (anyone remember some folks named Colby or Jerri?)

Yes, we know a number of folks are picking ETHAN to win (including both the message board voters and the home page visitor poll voters) but sometimes just because it's the popular pick doesn't mean it's the wrong pick.

After the winner, things become much more complicated. In fact, as of AK's last count, message board voters had already voted for EIGHTEEN of the possible twenty-four Final Four finish combinations. Two of them have emerged by far as the most popular. They are Kim/Tom/Lex/Ethan and Tom/Kim/Lex/Ethan (geez, anyone notice something in common?)

Most folks seem absolutely sold on Lex at MINIMUM being in the Final Two (assuming he doesn't end up winning the whole thing.) SurvivorBlows is not among them, but let's take a closer look at this logic. The basic idea is apparently that neither Lex or Ethan would want Tom (or Kim) going into the finale jury vote with them (with the idea being that both are too likeable.)

Does it make sense at first glance -- yes, but let's not forget the lessons of Survivor's past. In S1, Kelly DID pick the "NASTY" guy over the "NICE" guy in Richard over Rudy and it got her... SECOND place. In S2, Colby DIDN'T pick the "NASTY" guy over the "NICE" gal in Keith over Tina and it got him... SECOND place. Notice a pattern? History would then seem to show us that you can't win with either logic -- in NEITHER case did the person who controlled their own destiny actually win.

SurvivorBlows is thinking that this might be the Survivor series in which he/she who controls his own destiny DOES WIN. For that to be true of course, then the winner of the final immunity must be the person who wins the Final Immunity Challenge. Then based on our WINNER pick, That must be ETHAN.

Now, let's figure out how that might happen. In his head, ETHAN has been thinking about which of his Boran Four teammantes he'd like to bring to the Final Two for probably... oh, about 39 days now. If he's seen Survivor 1, then he knows the "bring the nasty player" theory has backfired. If he's seen Survivor 2, then he knows the "bring the nice player" theory has backfired. What hasn't been tried yet is the "bring the player no one really cares a rat's ass about one way or the other" theory. Think about it, KimJ is the CLASSIC UTR player. No one likes her. No one hates her. She's just there. Like the dirt beneath their feet (although not quite as old.)

Ethan knows his endgame -- go to the Final Two with the player NO ONE could POSSIBLY think was the most deserving. Tom is too likeable. Lex is too damn hateable -- hateable enough to admire the way he played the game. MamaKim is JUST RIGHT -- not too likeable, not too admirable, frankly not much at all.

For a Ethan/Kim Final Two to happen, obviously one of them has to win the Final Immunity Challenge -- and both have to have survived the Final Four Tribal council. Since ETHAN has ZERO previous votes and Kim only has ONE vote while Tom and Lex both have previous votes a'plenty, Kim and Ethan can GUARANTEE each other a Final Three appearance simply by both agreeing to vote for either Lex or Tom. Both these players seem to have at least the slightest bit of common sense -- and we're assuming there has to be a reason why Kim passed time and time again on the chance to defect and play a role other than that of Final Four cannon fodder. If that's the case then both Kim and Ethan should realize that a guaranteed Final Three appearance is better than a chance of being out at #4, and they should ally. Yes, logic has failed us time and time again in this series, but we're going to give it one more shot -- LET LOGIC LIVE! And if that happens, then their NUMBER ONE remaining threat is LEX.

If the final immunity is PHYSICAL, LEX is Ethan's greatest threat, and if the challenge is MENTAL, LEX (particularly given his sharp mental condition as a result of all his immunity and reward challenge wins) is also a far greater threat than TOM.

So there you go... that's our Final Four predictions -- LEX/TOM/KIM/ETHAN. The only thing we haven't covered is who wins the Final Four immunity (and if Lex wins it, that obviously screws up the order.) Other than Lex not winning it, who knows what will happen, but we'll go with ETHAN again.

So, to recap for everyone:

Final Four Immunity Winner: ETHAN
Final Four Bootee: LEX
Final Three Immunity Winner: ETHAN
Final Three Bootee: TOM
Final Two LOSER: KIMJ
Final Two WINNER: ETHAN

...as far as alternate picks go, well hell, let's assume the above is completely wrong and go with the below:

Final Four Immunity Winner: LEX
Final Four Bootee: KIMJ
Final Three Immunity Winner: LEX
Final Three Bootee: TOM
Final Two LOSER: ETHAN
Final Two WINNER: LEX

-SB

PS Be sure to check back here tonight on SurvivorBlows.com for the grand unveiling of the nominations for the 2002 RealityTVWorld Blowie Awards!