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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 01-08-02, 03:34 PM (EST) "Jury Analysis" We all know that winning Survivor takes a lot more that getting into the finals (as Kelly and Colby can attest). Instead of looking at the players remaining let look instead at the people who will decide who wins it in the end. Kelly - Clearly has a dislike of Lex. In post game interviews expressed disappointment in MamaKim. In the show (especially in the insider clips) she was seen making somewhat disparaging remarks concerning Tom as well. Ethan looks like a lock on her vote if he can get there, and if not it will be interesting to see which way she might be leaning otherwise. Under no condition do I think she will vote for Lex though, in fact she might just pull a Soozin speech on him at the final TC if he's there (perhaps that is why he never apologized to her when he saw she didn't backstab him). Projected vote: E vs. K, L, T = Ethan, K or T vs. L = Kim or Tom, K vs. T = lean Tom Brandon - Clearly liked Lex. Clearly uncomfortable with Tom. Didn't really see a whole lot of interaction with Ethan or MamaKim so hard to get a good read. Will likely vote for Lex if he's there and unlikely to vote for Tom regardless of how things turn out. Projected vote: L vs. E, K, T = Lex, E or K vs. T = Ethan or Kim, E vs. K = lean Ethan Frank - Clearly liked Tom. Uncomfortable with Lex (personality issues) and Kim (politics confrontation). I'm unclear on what he may have thought of Ethan so I will assume he is neutral. Projected vote: T vs. L, E, K = Tom, L or K vs. E = Ethan, L vs. K = lean Kim KimP - Clearly liked Tom, Kim, and Ethan. Not angry at Lex, but not his best buddy either. Hard to read whom she would vote for, but of those remaining Lex would probably loose and the rest is at best a guess. Projected vote: L vs. T, K, E = Tom, Kim, or Ethan, E vs. T or K = lean Ethan, T vs. K = lean Kim Theresa - Clearly liked Kim (although not sure Kim likes her now). Didn't really seam to like Lex, but hard to tell like/dislike vs. strategy. Put last little jab at Tom with Lex just to stir up trouble? -or- because it really did happen and we just weren't shown it. Seamed a little frustrated with Tom concerning his lack of willingness to play the game. Likely will vote for the person who she feels has played the game best despite how she personally feels about them. Projected vote: L vs. T, K, E = Lex, E or K vs. T = Ethan or Kim, E vs. K = lean Kim So with the current jury what does that leave us with (keep in mind the magic number is 4)? Lex vs. Tom, Ethan, or KimJ - 2-3 Tom or KimJ vs. Ethan - 1-4 Tom vs. KimJ - 2-3 The last two jurists are the key in 2/3 of the combinations and perhaps all of them as the KimP leaning for Ethan is more of a GUT feeling as opposed to anything specific. So lets look at those. Lex - If he is on the jury will he blame someone or praise them? The most likely blame candidate is Tom, but really he could pretty much lash out at any of them... or play it real classy and pick the person who voted him out for beating him at his own game. Because of that he is most difficult to read. If he goes out swinging though his likely first target would be Tom. If he goes out classy it's highly unlikely he will give anything to Kim who he seems to think he has drug along for the ride. Projected vote: T or E vs. K = Tom or Ethan, T vs. E = Ethan Tom - Keeping ones word is the key. If he is on the jury and Lex is final two don't expect him to vote for Lex. Also he seems to have bonded more with the other male members of his alliance so Kim would likely go down if it came to a Ethan-KimJ showdown. All this is subject to change of course if someone else betrays his word. Projected vote: L vs. K or E = Kim or Ethan, K vs. E = Ethan Ethan - Clearly aligned with Lex. If he winds up on the jury at Lex's hand expect him not to earn his vote. If he goes at someone else’s expect him to stick with his friend Lex despite the problems they might have had. Projected vote: L vs. T or K = Lex, T vs. K = Kim KimJ - Clearly the outsider of the four, but this might just get her in the finals. If not don't expect hard feelings from her towards any of them with the possible exception of Tom. Projected vote: T vs. L or E = Lex or Ethan, L vs. E = Ethan So when it’s all said and done this is how I see the votes given the various match-ups: Lex vs. Tom - 4-3 LEX WINS! Lex vs. Ethan - 2-5 ETHAN WINS! Lex vs. KimJ - 3-4 KIMJ WINS! Tom vs. Ethan - 1-6 ETHAN WINS! Tom vs. KimJ - 3-4 KIMJ WINS! Ethan vs. KimJ - 6-1 ETHAN WINS! hummm... Ethan wins in a route if he makes it, KimJ wins close against anyone not named Ethan, and Lex beats Tom by a tattoo... hummm... yep that's how I see it! -ICB   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Jury Analysis Naked 01-08-02 1    RE: Jury Analysis snoocharoo 01-08-02 2        RE: Jury Analysis shellybelly 01-09-02 12  RE: Jury Analysis heymikey 01-08-02 3    RE: Jury Analysis JeffGator 01-08-02 4        RE: Jury Analysis Loree 01-08-02 5  My take. sleeeve 01-08-02 6    RE: My take. Serendipity 01-08-02 7    RE: My take. heymikey 01-09-02 9    RE: My take. Yazimodo 01-09-02 10    RE: My take. Loree 01-09-02 13  Couple of comments/replys idiotcowboy 01-09-02 8    RE: Couple of comments/replys realityluver 01-09-02 11

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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 01-08-02, 04:28 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Jury Analysis" Great post COWBOY !!!! Very well thought out. I do think though that Kimj does not have a shot at winning no matter who she faces. Kelly dislikes her more than she dislikes Lex. I also don't think Ethan is as strong a candidate as we might think. I think that there is some resentment in the Jury because he is so strong. Theresa talked about it on the show, and KimP talked about it in interviews.) I also think that Lex is a whole lot stronger than what we have been led to believe. I have not heard ONE negative comment about him by any of the Survivors. NOT ONE. Naked   Top

snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 01-08-02, 05:03 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Jury Analysis" I totally agree. Although the viewers dispise Lex I really don't think the players do. Lex is not the villan that he has been edited to be, keep in mind this is TELEVISION and it's all about ratings. Wouldn't it be good TV to see a "battle of good - vs- evil" with Lex and Ethan as F2 and Lex ultimately winning? Strange that Lex has disappeared since returning to the bay area, we see pics of Tom and Ethan, hear of MK and Teresa having lunches, Brandon and Ethan out partying but oddly no Lex news with the exception of the aemobic dysentary(sp). It is widely reported that he has had very little if any post-series contact with any of the others (re: the Kelly phone call). Has he intentionally stayed out of sight, if so why? I may be in the minority here and dead wrong but IMHO Lex takes it all, this series has just been too boring and predictable to not have a some kind of surprise ending. (Go ahead Flame me...)   Top

shellybelly 16 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 01-09-02, 10:41 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Jury Analysis" I may be a bit bias, (I have felt for quite some time that Ethan is the mastermind of LET) but couldn't the fact that Ethan has been edited as somewhat bland be to thwart spoilers such as ourselves from seeing him as the obvious winner? Just from the aspects of Lex's personality that MB has chosen to air, I could picture Lex being a lot more bitter about not winning than anyone else; isn't it possible that he is just laying low so that he doesn't have to talk about something that he is very unhappy about? I also don't think that MB would edit his big winner in such a negative way. He wants the viewers to feel good about who wins, so they are looking forward to watching S4! I think that Tom, MamaKim, and Ethan are in the final 3. Also, (sorry I'm going on for so long) The fact that the bootees have had nothing negative to say about Ethan, but they said he was pretty quiet and aloof (I'm paraphrasing here) Couldn't that mean the bootees are trying to hide the winner by showing their indifference? Just my opinion.   Top

heymikey 238 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 01-08-02, 06:36 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Jury Analysis" LAST EDITED ON 01-09-02 AT 00:56 AM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 01-08-02 AT 06:58 PM (EST) I posted an article that did an interview with Teresa in the fanatics board. Here are some highlights from the interview that may contradict some of your assessments. "I never disliked Lex at all." "I know Ethan liked him (Lex) and Kim liked him (Lex)." I edited this one to remove the "Tom and Frank did not get along" part. It was a mistake on my part. Oh well, I guess this post turned out to be pretty useless...   Top

JeffGator 1401 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 01-08-02, 06:49 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Jury Analysis" I totally believe Lex will win. Come on guys think this is Survivor, they always edit to make you a suprise ending. Did we really think Richard Hatch could win? Did we think Tina could beat Colby? Of course not. They have been editing to make us believe Ethan will win. Survivor likes to suprise as we all know. I may have to eat my words but I believe that the jury will vote for Lex over Ethan because they will feel that Lex deserves it more as he has won more immunities. I believe that Lex will win all the remaining immunities, take Ethan with him, the only person left he feels close to and America will be shocked when he beats Ethan by 4 votes to 3. I could be wrong but I believe next voted off is Tom, then Kim, (possibly Kim and then Tom), with Lex winning over Ethan. Anyway, I like Ethan the most but I am sort of going for Lex because I do feel he deserves it.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-08-02, 08:09 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Jury Analysis" I think the one thing that could hurt Ethan is that he doesn't seem to have let alot of people really get close to him. So several of the players have admitted not being able to know him. And while nobody seems to dislike Ethan, I'm not sure he has alot of people really rooting for him either. And you have to admit if Lex gets to that final he will have played a very good game. Plus he has been outgoing with everyone. Something Ethan hasn't been.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 01-08-02, 11:04 PM (EST) 6. "My take." I have a few alterations I'd like to make to the votes, from my own observations. Kelly - Said that MamaKim was the ONLY one from the game that she could not forgive. MamaKim accused her of playing the game dirty, and was a much larger betrayal that Lex. Conclusion: she will not vote for Kim under any circumstance. Next on her hitlist is Lex, who will only get her vote if he's against MK. Agree with the rest. Brandon - Agree with everthing you said. Frank - Said in interview that Lex was the only one that he thought played the game respectably... that means a sure vote for Lex, in my book, if Lex makes it. Otherwise, I agree that he would choose Tom second, and Ethan over Kim KimP - Recall that KimP had very, very fond words of Tom when she left the game. I think that she'd pick him over any of these. Agree that Lex is lowest on the list, and I think Kim just edges out Ethan (due to the proposed female alliance). Teresa - I agree that Teresa will vote for the most strategic... She said in an interview that she didn't dislike Lex at all, but voted for him cause it was the best strategy. Thus, I think she believes that he is in control, and this gives him her vote. Tom is her second choice, because I think that she believes Tom is also a big player, and despite her frustration that Tom won't switch sides, she will respect a winning strategy. I lean toward Ethan over MamaKim (who seemed to avoid strategy and be led by her leash) Ethan - I agree with your analysis, although I'm not sure that Ethan would choose Kim over Tom... Ethan seems to be more friendly with Tom (boil, smelly feet) than with Kim... but that's just my opinion... Lex - I agree with your analysis, and combine that with shakes' thoughts on Bashers (that as soon as he is eliminated, he will go out classy, and friendly)... I take that to mean that Kim will not get his vote. In a Tom vs. Ethan vote, I'd lean toward Ethan, but I'm not sure. KimJ - Her comments the night that Brandon was voted off (about staying true to her real alliance) betrayed her opinion of Lex. He is the third person that she does not like (first two were Kelly and Brandon) and he will not get her vote. Ethan would almost definately get her vote over Tom (who also seemed to irritate her). Tom - This depends on the final immunity... his alliance with Lex and Ethan is strong, so MamaKim will not get his vote unless one of the men intentionally takes her to the jury instead of Tom... in an Ethan/Lex final, Tom will vote for Ethan if Lex won immunity in the final three (betraying his word of honor and booting Tom), but will vote for Lex (due to his word of honor) if Ethan won immunity. Here's what the possible outcomes look like (jury members listed across the top, with their votes below their names. The possible final pairings are at the left, and the ultimate survivor in each case is listed in bold at the right of each row): Voters==> Kelly Brandi Frank KimP TBird Ethan Lex KimJ Tom Winner Ethan v Lex Ethan Lex Lex Ethan Lex --- --- Ethan ???* ???* Ethan v KimJ Ethan Ethan Ethan KimJ Ethan --- Ethan --- Ethan Ethan Ethan v Tom Ethan Ethan Tom Tom Tom --- Ethan Ethan --- Ethan Lex v KimJ Lex Lex Lex KimJ Lex Lex --- --- Lex Lex Lex v Tom Tom Lex Lex Tom Lex Lex --- Tom --- Lex KimJ v Tom Tom KimJ Tom Tom Tom Tom Tom --- --- Tom *Votes for loser of final immunity... see notes on Tom, above. Summary: The men have this thing in the bag... but Tom can only win if he faces Mama Kim in the finals. Speaking of the men, if it came down to Lex and Ethan in the finals, Tom would play the crucial role, deciding the winner based on who won the final IC, but didn't take him to the finals with them. Disclaimer: I'm probably wrong in at least one place... if I knew what I was talking about, I'd be in Vegas right now!!! You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

Serendipity 525 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 01-08-02, 11:38 PM (EST) 7. "RE: My take." I didn't see the interview where Frank said Lex played best, but this is what he had to say in the CBS chat: fconquerAnt: Frank, in your opinion, who has played the best game so far? Frank Garrison: I'll give Ethan credit for playing the game the best this far.   Top

heymikey 238 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 01-09-02, 01:04 AM (EST) 9. "RE: My take." >>> He is the third person that she does not like (first two were Kelly and Brandon) and he will not get her vote Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't KimJ said the "There-are-3-people-I-do-not-like-when-playing-the-game" quote to Kelly before she got the boot? If this is the case, then I don't think Lex and Brandon were the other 2 (unless she clearly said it was them).   Top

Yazimodo 32 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 01-09-02, 02:54 AM (EST) 10. "RE: My take." LAST EDITED ON 01-09-02 AT 03:00 AM (EST) i agree with everything you guys said except these tiny lil bits of stuff >KimP - Recall that KimP had very, very fond words of Tom when >she left the game. I think that she'd pick him over any of >these. Agree that Lex is lowest on the list, and I think Kim >just edges out Ethan (due to the proposed female alliance). i may be wrong BUT all that all-female alliance stuff was between KimJ and Teresa. KimP would have went along if it had worked but we never actually see her talking (or doing ANYTHING) with KimJ. I think that, like Frank, she could be a tiny bit resentful at KimJ. Plus, Ethan is more her age and they seemed to have a good time on night shift together and had a certain camaraderie during the auction. Thats about it it doesnt change anything really KimJ still loses... EDITED TO ADD: And Ethan would vote for Tom over KimJ. The chances of that F2 happenning are pretty tiny-ally-mcbeal-slim tho...   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-09-02, 10:47 AM (EST) 13. "RE: My take." I think Tom would vote for Ethan if Tom is voted out as #4 and both Ethan and Lex vote for booting him. MamaKim would go along with the group decision just to save her butt. I just think Tom may not make it to #3 to be booted by the IC winner (and then resenting that person's betrayal). So if Lex vs Ethan in the final it may not be Tom who was left behind. It could be MamaKim. All in all I think it is looking more and more like Lex could win this thing. MamaKim is definitely the long shot. And Ethan has been so quiet that I wonder if that hasn't hurt him when it comes time to vote. Will the others think he has played a strong game or that he has gone along with Lex and Tom much like MamaKim? Also has Tom started to get on people's nerves yet? He plays the big dumb hick. But most of the players have decided it is partly an act and they may start to tire of it and resent him.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 01-09-02, 00:51 AM (EST) 8. "Couple of comments/replys" Thanks for your comments! Concerning Kelly and my thoughts that she would take Kim over Lex... IMO it really seemed seeing the show was the ONLY thing that softened her opinion of Lex. IMO Kim and Lex are both equal in her pariah estimation going into the vote, and if that is the case I go with the dis of the leader (aka a very reluctant KimJ vote... remember Jerri dissing of Tina last year in the interviews and then voting her the mil?). Concerning Frank and who he might vote for. I had missed the references sleeeve, serendipity, and heymikey have for him. So I'll re-eval him as Ethan-Lex-Tom-Kim and see how that changes anything at the end. Concerning Lex and how he is portrayed. There is always selective editing, but in the end as they say "you is what you is" and he may be more than what we have seen but what we have seen is also a part of him too. I go back and forth on why we haven't really heard anything negative from the jury people after they are voted out. Some days it's cause I think he is in the finals, but lately it is more on the lines that he is not... and therefore not worth discussing. Using this same line of logic, it seems everyone has an opinion about Ethan... Concerning KimP, I dont really know how to read her except for a minor Lex dislike... and even then I'm not 100% sure about that one either. I originally said E-T-K-L based on the respect talk she made about Ethan in the post interviews, then the nice Tom comments then the Kim stuff and finally Lex who she just didnt have as much interaction with. I think I'll stick with that, but I'm not really really confident in that one. Concerning Ethan picking Kim over Tom. Well that is based on my long standing memory of how concerned/relieved Ethan was for Kim back near the begining. I dunno call it a GUT moment for me Hummm... In my re-evel the only change is Frank and his moving E-L (or L-E) ahead of Tom really does nothing to my final outcome. Now if I could just decide which of the final two pairings is right I'd have the winner -ICB   Top

realityluver 267 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 01-09-02, 08:41 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Couple of comments/replys" I am liking all of this speculation. Really makes you think. I do have one comment about the following statement... >Concerning Ethan picking Kim over Tom. > Well that is based >on my long standing memory >of how concerned/relieved Ethan was >for Kim back near the >begining. I dunno call >it a GUT moment for >me > I think the concern Ethan had was not so much for Kim on a personal note, but because the whole tribe knew if they lost another immunity challenge she would be the one to go. I think that bothered Ethan more because he would have rather voted off Clarence over Kim, but knew that couldn't happen for the good of the tribe.   Top

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