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"Can Ethan Lose?"
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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 01:55 AM (EST)
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"Can Ethan Lose?"
I wanted to start a thread talking about Ethan's chance of winning the show based on Spoilers and Speculation. The only problem that I have with this, is there has been very few real spoilers with Ethan. The complete lack of information that we, as a spoiling community have on Ethan, Tells me that MB is really trying to hide something here. Here is what I have on Ethan. Please feel free to add any more spoilers as they come up.

1. Tom/Ethan Photo.
Tom and Ethan recently made a public apperance over at Tom's house. In the photo, Tom and Ethan were obviously friendly to one another. It looks like that whatever happens, these two either didn't betray each other, or don't hold a grudge if they did.

2. Final 4 position
In my estimation, As the biggest IM threat, and the most likeable guy left in the group, Ethan has to win Immunity to get in the F3 or F2.

3. Jury votes
He has no enemys, and can probably beat anyone else left in a lnadslide vote.

Naked

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? simone 01-04-02 1
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? PepeLePew13 01-04-02 2
   RE: Can Ethan Lose? TheWanderer 01-04-02 3
       RE: Can Ethan Lose? PepeLePew13 01-05-02 18
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? Afreaqua 01-04-02 4
   RE: Can Ethan Lose? rugbyjen 01-04-02 5
       RE: Can Ethan Lose? red 01-04-02 10
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? Swami 01-04-02 6
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? janisella 01-04-02 7
   Connections AyaK 01-04-02 9
       More Ethan stuff dangerkitty 01-04-02 11
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? PagongRatEater 01-04-02 8
   RE: Can Ethan Lose? TheWanderer 01-04-02 13
       RE: Can Ethan Lose? red 01-04-02 14
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? hallie 01-04-02 12
 RE: Can Ethan Lose-yes but won't blimey 01-04-02 15
   RE: Can Ethan Lose-yes but won't PepeLePew13 01-05-02 19
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? GuessItRains 01-04-02 16
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? Serendipity 01-05-02 17
 New CBS website gaffe - shades of G... diamond 01-05-02 20
   RE: New CBS website gaffe - shades ... Fashionista007 01-07-02 21
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? Naked 01-07-02 22
   RE: Can Ethan Lose? GuessItRains 01-07-02 23
 RE: Can Ethan Lose? bambini 01-07-02 24

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simone 52 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 02:15 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
I think that, barring something incredibly wierd happening, Ethan has a lock on a position in the F3. He could beat anyone in a tie, and I think the chances of everyone else ganging up on him are slim. If Lex wins the first immunity challenge, Ethan could be vulnerable, but I think the more likely target is Kim (bearing in mind that this is based on what we the audience have seen of the OB alliance dynamic, which could be misleading). If Tom or (by some bizarre chance) Kim wins the immunity challenge, I think Lex is more likely to be seen as an immunity than Ethan. Personally, I think Lex will win immunity and Kim will be voted off, but that's just a gut (argh) feeling and thus highly (if Lex is the standard) unreliable.

In the final three, Ethan is more vulnerable. If Tom wins immunity, he might take Lex, knowing that he is very likely to win in that situation. But, as he and Ethan seem to be on fairly good terms in the photo, I think he probably would be more likely to take Ethan. If the situation were reversed (Ethan wins immunity and takes Lex to the final 2), I could see Tom forgiving Ethan - a trip to Africa and however much money #3 gets could be prize enough for him. But Ethan seems more competitive - I don't know if he would forgive Tom in that situation. If Lex wins immunity, he could choose either. Part of me (the evil gut?) thinks that Lex will see the safari as reward enough for Tom's loyalty and will take Ethan, which would also be a way of saying thank you for taking him to trade goats.

In any caes, I think Ethan's chances of winning are pretty high. But that might be due to clever editing. Watch Lex and Kim be the final 2 and Ethan get voted off first next episode. That would suck.

Sorry for yet another long speculative thread.

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 07:47 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
I think we also need to look at what just happened in the episode... we saw Tom being painted as the bad guy in telling T-bird not to trust Lex.

This is how I see it going, not sure if there's any other scenario except Tom winning the next IC and forcing Kim J out:

Lex paranoid! Gut goes into overdrive!
Tom booted!
Nobody wants to go against Kim J in final two... Thong Granny booted!
Ethan is easy winner over Lex in jury vote!

IMO, the game is Ethan's to lose. I cannot see how Tom can get to the final two right now with the way things have unfolded in the last episode... but of course, perhaps that's what MB wants us to think?

Spoilers to back this up:

Lex has a Survivor tattoo -- perhaps getting booted in 4th might not make him too happy considering who he's up against (i.e. Kim J and the rumour from T-bird that Tom tried to stab him) so a final two is much more likely to make him happy to get a tattoo.

Ethan/Tom picture... as discussed frequently in the last couple of weeks, MB wouldn't be showing us the final two together... would he?

Kim J is this year's Rudy... carry as far as possible but when it's the final three, hasta la vista and don't forget to pack your thong.

And there's the elaborate Ethan = Jesus theory that *may* suggest that MB targetted him as the winner right from the first episode by his editing.


"It's just funny seeing people that are matched up, everyone has a partner now and everyone's happy. And boy, my camping trip just went to hell."
Frank Garrison, Dec. 13/01

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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 11:13 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
Good points... did you notice in last night's episode in one of the interviews with Ethan,he talking about how he's playing the game fairly (or something to that effect) and I was distracted by something behind Ethan, then the camera did a close up of an object (I forget what it was) but burned in my mind was the word "honor". This definitely was done on purpose.
I truly would like to see Ethan win and he's playing the game as hard as Lex. Although I wonder if Ethan isn't sandbagging a bit.
All the players know how much of a toll the lack of food, sleep and the environment is doing to them. When Jeff asked Ethan how his sense have been affected, he stated that he isn't as sharp and his senses aren't as acute. He could either be telling the truth, or trying to mislead his fellow tribe mates (read: Tom and MK)into thinking he's not as much of a threat as they think he may be.

The other thing I noticed is that this episode portrayed MK to be as much of a "snake" as Teresa, playing to sides against the middle and I believe she might get caught. Ehtan may not be able to save her wrinkled butt this time either. If Tom or Ethan win immunity she may be a goner, although I think Tom may be next to go. I'm not sure at this point. One thing I do know, is that I'm in agreement with the other posters in this thread, in that unles Ethan pulls a major screw up, he's a sure bet for the F2.

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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01-05-02, 11:58 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
>Good points... did you notice in last night's episode in one
>of the interviews with Ethan,he talking about how he's playing
>the game fairly (or something to that effect) and I was
>distracted by something behind Ethan, then the camera did
>a close up of an object (I forget what it was)
>but burned in my mind was the word "honor". This
>definitely was done on purpose.

Thanks for the good catch... yes I remember now seeing the words "Code of Honor" on LEX's bag or whatever it was that the camera panned onto behind Ethan while he was talking.

What does this mean that they show Lex's words on the whatchamacallit while Ethan is talking about playing fairly? Is it trying to tell us that Ethan will stick with Lex no matter what so not to go against his word? Or is this a 'sarcastic' shot to show that Ethan shouldn't trust Lex's word?


"It's just funny seeing people that are matched up, everyone has a partner now and everyone's happy. And boy, my camping trip just went to hell."
Frank Garrison, Dec. 13/01

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Afreaqua 181 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 11:40 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
I think Ethan is in a very good position in that he hasn't peeved anyone off once in this whole game. He has been playing this very carefully and well (although I think this is part of his nature....being a Scorpio ;o). He seems very astute at sizing up the vibes from people, knowing who to trust and just giving enough of himself to appear to be participating without totally letting his guard down. Whatever happens, he has a strong bond with MammaKim and also with Tom and is admired by all even Lex. I do think Lex is competitive enough however, that he would consider screwing Ethan over if it came down to that because Ethan is such a threat to him.
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rugbyjen 2 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 12:04 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
i think ethan takes it all -

in Kim P.'s interview with Entertainment Weekly she says -

"Maybe we could have gotten together with Teresa and Frank and voted Ethan out, which would have changed the game."

why would she mention ethan when they were targeting lex from the get go? he is playing fairly and holding true to his alliance - i think he will pull out and win immunity when it counts, guaranteeing his slot in the final 2. if he votes out tom and goes against lex in the final 2, i can see tom being understanding and them still remaining friends (picture of them together).

also, i think lex would have gotten a tattoo of survivor: africa regardless of him winning the entire thing, he has gotten to see more of that place than anyone, taking amazing trips and that avalanche last night, so even if he is the next to go, he has had enough scenic beauty and life-changing experiences to warrant a tattoo.

rugbyjen

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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 03:00 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"

>in Kim P.'s interview with Entertainment
>Weekly she says -
>
>"Maybe we could have gotten together
>with Teresa and Frank and
>voted Ethan out, which would
>have changed the game."

What on earth was she talking about? Who would get together and vote for Ethan? There was never any opportunity to take out Ethan.
>

i think he
>will pull out and win
>immunity when it counts, guaranteeing
>his slot in the final
>2.

I think Lex's prior wins and extra food have given him the edge - Ethan tried damn hard to win that IC last night and just couldn't cut it.
>

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Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 01:00 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
In Episode 12, Ethan is shown lying around with Tom, sitting often & slumping when he sits, and just looking beat in general. He has commented on this lack of activity too. He seems to have very little energy, at least that's what we are shown. We have also seen more footage of him shirtless. He still looks good, but I was struck by how skinny he is, especially in the back. He has lost a lot of muscle tone.

I am not an athlete, but I am married to a former athlete, who says you lose strength very quickly if you don't exercise every day. Ethan may be losing his physical conditioning, along with his mental edge.

In S1, didn't Wigglesworth do Yoga on the beach everyday to keep herself as fit & sharp as possible, while she went on her immunity run? (she didn't get as much extra food as Lex has, or Colby in S2.)

Ethan needs to get moving, and/or win an RC that will give him the calories he needs to get back in the game.

Swami

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janisella 698 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 01:12 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
Even though Ethan hasn't made any enemies (that we can see anyway), it doesn't look like he's really made any true connections with anyone either. We saw how Frank's aloofness bothered some people - they may feel the same way about Ethan but we haven't been shown those comments. When it gets down to the Final 2, people can choose the winner for whatever reason they want. The person perceived to be a "closer friend" might get the votes, even if they didn't play the game as well.

My 2nd grade Jewish soccer-playing son is absolutely certain Ethan is going to win because he's good at everything and nice to everyone, but he didn't see Survivor I.

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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 02:46 PM (EST)
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9. "Connections"
We know that Ethan has stayed in contact with most of the survivors, even ones that he never met during the game such as Carl. This indicates that he has some desire for socialization -- he's not off beating his antlers.

Personally, I started to believe Ethan won as soon as I read Kelly's comments about how much she liked him but how much he kept to himself and how hard it was to talk about nothing other than maize each day.

I think Kelly, who seems to be very social by nature, would have struggled with the fact that her natural closest ally -- a handsome, intelligent, sensitive twentysomething man -- didn't want to establish a closer relationship with her (and she was clearly worried that he was more interested in Jessie, as she stated in the Insider comments from E2). Kelly wanted a scheming partner, and Ethan wasn't interested ... yet Kelly still liked him.

As Brandon said in his EW interview:

Did you just never speak to <Kim P.> again?
No, we're cool now. We both went and stayed with Kelly for a week a few weeks ago. I'm in touch with everybody. A few days ago I had breakfast with Ethan and Kim. Ethan and his friends took me out until 4 a.m.

So, Ethan is good enough friends with Kim P and Brandon that he met them for breakfast and that he and his friends took Brandon out until 4 a.m. -- this is NOT an aloof person!

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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 03:20 PM (EST)
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11. "More Ethan stuff"
Good examples, AyaK. Some other moments I recall:

-Ethan described his relationship with Tom as "like brothers". He does exhibit an ease with Tom, I think. We saw him step up for his shower by Tom, as I recall.

-A couple eps ago, Ethan in a confessional said words to the effect - everyone is so comfortable and used to being with each other. I don't care if anyone sees me change clothes; I can fart and I don't feel embarrassed. (this was the shower episode).

-Survivor Insider, Ethan told stories, like the one about playing soccer with the big guys who laughed at his little "member" and all their other antics.

-Don't forget the cookies!

There is something odd about how Ethan has been edited, though. And maybe it just reflects his personality pretty accurately. He's always there, but is so low-key that it feels like we don't know him. Add to that, we have Lex and Tom with really strong personalities and distinct styles and quirks - Ethan is bound to appear almost monochrome in comparism.


I keep going back to the fact that the S3 winner is a "representive" so to speak for MB and the show. And some things we don't learn until after it is all over - eg. my feelings about Tina's worthiness were affected by learning afterward of her alliance with Colby and realizing that control she had over the votes and Keith. It also helped when Alicia pointed to Tina's focus and perserverance on the stump-standing challenge as a reason she voted for her, and even getting Jerri's vote in acknowledgement of a well-played game.


dangerkitty


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PagongRatEater 12996 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 02:17 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
Ethan is still too much of a physical threat to keep around and risk having him beat you. Personally, and this is an educated guess, I think Ethan goes next after Lex wins immunity again.

I think the tatoo thing for Lex has little spoiler value cause Lex seems like the kind of guy who would have done that to commemorate one of the biggest events in his life. Obviously he is not shy about adding new skin art. Nonetheless I think he will make it to the final two based on the Kevin Famie theory - no Colby heroics this time around.

Personally, I think he is about as exciting as vanilla ice cream. What a boring un-interesting group for the final four. There is nobody here to cheer for and only Lex to cheer against - a poor shadow of Rich or Jerri.

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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 04:39 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
PagongRatEater... By your statement "Personally, and this is an educated guess, I think Ethan goes next after Lex wins immunity again." are you purporting that in the F4, the IC winner (Lex) allows Ethan to be voted out? That is highly doubtful.

In the F4, if Lex wins immunity either Tom or MK get the boot. Lex and Ethan are too close. Lex and Ethan would vote against Tom
and based on MK's comments, it appears that she would vote against Tom as well.
If Ethan wins the IC, the swing vote is MK. Tom will vote against Lex. Ethan and Lex would vote against Tom, then MK has the power. In a 2-2 tie, Lex loses due to previous votes. Again, based on MK's comments, it appears that she would vote against Tom, before voting against Lex. Regardless of his comments to Tom that we saw the other night (about getting tired of Lex winning all the ICs) Ethan would vote against Tom before voting against Lex, as Lex would puul Ethan into the F2, if Lex wins the final IC.

IMHO, unless Tom wins immunity, he's toast and the F3 will be Ethan, KimJ and Lex.

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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 04:51 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"

Lex
>and Ethan would vote against
>Tom
>and based on MK's comments, it
>appears that she would vote
>against Tom as well.

Mama's comments were made after Lex got immunity and as far as I can tell their purpose was simply to add fire to the growing rift between Lex and Tom - insuring she survives the final four slot. I don't think they're any indication she prefers Lex to Tom. They just failed to show her having the same conversation with Tom about Lex.

>If Ethan wins the IC, the
>swing vote is MK. Tom
>will vote against Lex.

Tom said you should honor your first alliance - which means Tom may want to target Kim.

Ethan
>and Lex would vote against
>Tom,

Ethan said last night he wanted to vote off Lex. Granted, they change their minds like they change their underwear...

>
>IMHO, unless Tom wins immunity, he's
>toast and the F3 will
>be Ethan, KimJ and Lex.


I think you've picked the final three - but Tom doesn't win immunity, Lex does. And then either all three gang up on Tom, or else Tom goes down in a tie-break (doubtful.)


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hallie 1 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 04:14 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-04-02 AT 04:15 PM (EST)

Ethan has been on the top of my list from almost the beginning of the show based on a comment he made to a female cast member. (maybe Kim J???)After Boran booted the first two women in a row, he said something like he would not vote off more women or would not let the tribe be all men, or something like that. Anyway, based on that I really don't think he'll vote off Kim J next episode. Tom or Lex?

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blimey 7 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 06:03 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Can Ethan Lose-yes but won't"
First time poster....

Why wasn't Lex convinced by Tbird and Thonggranny to vote for Tom? Because they really do have a strong LET "go to the final 3" alliance that they will not break. (Swearing on sons, honor etc...) You could argue that it is a 4 way alliance but I don't think ThongGranny is part of the group due to previous comments about not liking the way 3 people have played the game (Kelly being one of them), trying to turn against Tom. I do believe she has an alliance with Ethan but she knows that the 3 have made it clear that they are going as a group.

This is why Thongsneakyassgranny is so nervous. After last nights episode I think that ThongwhatisahiakuagainasifIeverknewGranny will go this week. I don't think it is the smartest move but the past two Survivors showed us that the final contestants don't usually do what is obvious to us the viewers.

Personally if I was Lex and won the next IC I would vote off Ethan and if I was Ethan I would vote off Lex (for fear that if Lex wins the final IC he would not take Ethan). Although Lex is the guy you want sitting next to you in the final 2 it is too risky for Ethan not to vote off Lex in the final. Tom and ThongGranny are not even contenders to win any IC.

MB is looking to misdirect us hoping we forget about the LET final 3 alliance.

Given that Thonggrossmeoutgranny goes this week this is how I see the final playing out depending on the IC.
IF...
1. Lex wins IC takes Tom. Lex wins the $1mm because up against Tom the jury thinks he plays the game well (let's hope not).

2. Ethan wins IC takes Lex. Ethan wins the $1mm because Lex may have played the game well but is an ASS.

3. Tom wins IC takes Lex. Lex wins..


My prediction is-
Kim goes next then Ethan wins final IC and takes Lex. Ethan wins it All. (I hope)

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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01-05-02, 12:11 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Can Ethan Lose-yes but won't"
>First time poster....

Welcome to the boards! Nice to hear your opinions as you've presented a pretty reasonable argument.


>Thongsneakyassgranny
>ThongwhatisahiakuagainasifIeverknewGranny
>Thonggrossmeoutgranny

A wild guess... you're not a fan of MamaKim?


>1. Lex wins IC takes Tom. Lex wins the $1mm
>because up against Tom the jury thinks he plays
>the game well (let's hope not).

A very good point that I think most people haven't considered yet. Lex could very well convince people that he has played the game well, even if some toes got stepped on, and look where he is, while Tom really hasn't done much strategizing at all and is still there because he's popular.

He could argue that he had won several RCs/ICs and he did much of the alliance strategizing to determine who got the boot and then say "look at Tom, he went along with me -- he made it because of me." That statement will not go over so well as it smacks of arrogance, but they may choose to focus on the fact that he is right and vote for him as the best player.

Still... I don't think Tom makes it that far. I think Lex will fear that Tom is out to get him and try to mastermind his boot in the next IC to leave a final three of Lex, Ethan and ThongmyassissavedGranny.


"It's just funny seeing people that are matched up, everyone has a partner now and everyone's happy. And boy, my camping trip just went to hell."
Frank Garrison, Dec. 13/01

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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-02, 07:04 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
Ethan can lose, but only at the last immunity challenge.

I just don't see a scenario where Ethan goes next. Either
a) Everybody really is sick of Lex and they vote him out.
b) LET remains on target, or Lex decides that MamaK is lying about Tom. Either way Thong Granny is out.
c) Lex believes MamaK's statement that Tom is trying to oust him and Tom gets the boot.
I don't think Lex views Ethan as that much of an immunity threat? He's only won one reward and one immunity and both were way back in E8. I see no reason to expect him to perform that well at "Fallen Comrades" if that turns out to be last again.

I also don't see Ethan losing a final vote to any of these people. Lex and MamaK would probably not be close. Tom might have a better shot but I think Kelly, KimP, Lex, and Mama would at least vote for Ethan in that scenario and he might pick up more than that. Plus I think a Tom-Ethan final is pretty doubtful.

So if Ethan wins the last immunity he's golden. Even if he loses the winner might bring him along:
a) Lex who cares so much about "honor" might feel the need to take the person who has been the most loyal to him all the way through and picked him to go on a reward challenge
b) MamaK is widely rumored to have a secret alliance with Ethan. We know she's playing Tom and Lex against each other, so it might make sense for her to take Ethan (Don't ask me how she wins immunity, I'm just trying to cover all my bases).
c) Tom-Ethan photo shows they are great friends, less likely if Tom voted Ethan out and picked MamaK or Lex at that stage.

Of course, nobody would logically have picked Colby to take Tina to the final or dicque to win it all, so I'm sure there's some flaw in all this. Still I'd put my money on Ethan.

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Serendipity 525 desperate attention whore postings
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01-05-02, 10:48 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
I really want Ethan to win it all, and I will weep angry tears if he doesn't.

But.....Lex and Tom have sworn on their sons that they will never cast a vote for the other. Does this extend just to the final four or to the very end?

I think Lex may really like Ethan, but still see him as the biggest threat to win an Immunity Challenge so may get rid of him next if Lex wins immunity again (which I think he probably will).

Does MamaKim have a chance to win immunity? I would bet she does if they have a Fallen Comrades type deal. All along she has been shown chatting with everyone - even Silas (remember she got his alliance information out of him).

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diamond 2307 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"

01-05-02, 01:51 PM (EST)
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20. "New CBS website gaffe - shades of Gervase-X?"
I almost feel silly posting this, since I'm sure it means nothing more than that the people who maintain the website aren't paying attention, but I thought I'd throw it out there before it gets fixed. This may not be the best place to post it, but I didn't want to start a whole new topic.

If you go to the main CBS page, there is a graphic that says "Don't Miss the Two-Hour Season Finale!" If you wait a few seconds, the words go away, and then it says "Who Will Win $1,000,000..." Then it flashes a picture, with the names of the final 4 below the picture, in alphabetical order by first name. However, it keeps flashing only Ethan's picture, even when the other names appear below it. Since Ethan is the first name listed, they probably just put in the code for his picture, and messed up the ones after.

Still, it is funny, since you get Ethan's picture flashed at you four times in response to the question "Who will Win?"

diamond

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Fashionista007 34 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"

01-07-02, 05:44 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: New CBS website gaffe - shades of Gervase-X?"
Good observation. I think it was definitely sone on purpose. I also think that it is a little dose of reverse psychology. MB knows that we remember as you mentioned the Gervase X thing and so on and so on and so on. All of these things however were not spoilers. I think he wants us to dismiss it completely so we'll count Ethan out-the man who many pin as the winner. If we did this than we'd climb up another tree. But we're not gonna do that are we?
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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"

01-07-02, 06:25 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
Something that I have not seen discussed yet is a commercial I saw while watching football this weekend. In it, it said something to the effect that Ethan was the popular favorite, and asked the veiwer to tune in to see if he won. Did anyone else see this spot?

The questione that I have is would MB have shown this commercial if the favorite didn't win?

Naked

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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

01-07-02, 06:42 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
Yep, it also described Lex as "smart" (guess that's only when he's not relying on his GUT) and Tom as the "good ol' boy." I can't remember what was said about MamaKim, but I think it was just that she was the only woman left.

I don't think this is a spoiler or anything other than truth in advertising. According to the CBS site, Ethan's popularity is 90%. Tom is 78%, MamaKim 60%, and Lex 30%. So he is the fan favorite. I think this was said in the context of why would this person win.

* Lex might win because he is really smart and a respected leader despite his flaws. This is why dicque won.

* Tom might win because he's perceived as a "good ol' boy" which endears him to some and might let him fly under the radar to the FInal 2.

* Ethan might win because everybody in the public and the jury likes him.

* There's no reason on earth MamaKim should win.

Basically I don't think there is any spoiler value to the promo. Rudy and Colby were fan favorites and didn't win, but that doesn't mean Ethan won't.

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bambini 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"

01-07-02, 11:07 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Can Ethan Lose?"
The only way Ethan could lose is Lex win another immunity challenge. Lex know pretty well that Ethan is the only survivor that can challenge him in every contest. Furthermore Ethan is much well like by the panels than Lex. So for Lex, Ethan and him as the final 2 is not the options. Similarly Big Tom should have the same mind set as Lex. In order for Tom or Lex to win they have to be the final 2. Kim and Ethan would have the equal chance of winning if both of them are in the final. Any other combo would have Kim or Ethan win the million bucks.
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