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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 01-01-02, 03:14 AM (EST) "Can Lex win?" I wanted to start a thread that talked about this being a possibilty. The way I see it so far though, it would be a long shot. Here are a couple of things in favor, and a couple against. 1. Lex's Tattoo Lex got a new tattoo of the Survivor Africa emblem. He just doesn't seem to be the kind of guy that would be happy enough about his experiance to get this tattoo if he didn't win. 2. Lex's treatment for dysentary at the US. This can no longer be considered a spoiler. on the CDC websight it says that it takes 1-4 weeks from injestment of the parasite that causes aeombic dysentary to start showing symtoms. This means that he could very easily not gotten sick untill well after the show was filmed. 3. Lex's votes against This tribal council is a no brainer. TBird is out of there this week. If she is not, than I'll drink a whole can of coke through my nostrils. Starting the final 4 though, with Lex being such an immunity threat to Tom and Ethan, he has to be a target. The only way I see him pulling out of this is by winning immunity. 4. Relationship with Jury/players left. If Lex gets in the final 2 with anyone but Ethan or Theresa (If she's there than my nose will be sore), I think that he has a real shot of winning. Everyone but Frank and Kelly really like him. Thats about all I can think of for now. If you guys have any to add to this, then feel free. Happy New years by the way. I think this is the first post this year !!!! Naked   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Can Lex win? janisella 01-01-02 1  Lex's Tattoo- Huge spoiler or not? Rose Red 01-01-02 2    RE: Lex's Tattoo- Huge spoiler or n... evilj9 01-02-02 7  RE: Can Lex win? Mumbo Jumbo 01-01-02 3  RE: Can Lex win? Loree 01-01-02 4  RE: Can Lex win? strone 01-02-02 5    RE: Can Lex win? dabo 01-02-02 6        RE: Can Lex win? Loree 01-02-02 8  Highly possible to make the final 2... Afreaqua 01-02-02 9  RE: Can Lex win? GuessItRains 01-02-02 10  RE: Can Lex win? red 01-02-02 11  Jury votes AyaK 01-02-02 12    RE: Jury votes dabo 01-03-02 13        Agree AyaK 01-03-02 14        RE: Jury votes Outfrontgirl 01-03-02 15            RE: Jury votes dabo 01-03-02 16                RE: Jury votes Naked 01-03-02 17                RE: Jury votes red 01-03-02 19  RE: Can Lex win? mrmobius2002 01-03-02 18    RE: Can Lex win? Lex would beat Tho... blimey 01-04-02 22  My thoughts bebekid 01-04-02 20    RE: My thoughts red 01-04-02 21  RE: Can Lex win? shanana banana 01-04-02 23    RE: Can Lex win? macamrox 01-04-02 24        Not necessarily a loser. Rose Red 01-04-02 25  RE: Can Lex win? ret2xanadu 01-05-02 26    Lex's disabled son Rose Red 01-10-02 28  RE: Can Lex win? Naked 01-10-02 27  Yes He Can!!!! sleeeve 01-10-02 29

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janisella 698 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 01-01-02, 12:13 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Can Lex win?" I think any one of the 5 remaining contestants has a chance of winning (MamaKim's chances are weak, but she is respected). They're all genuinely likable people and the votes could go either way with any Final 2 combination.   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 01-01-02, 12:45 PM (EST) 2. "Lex's Tattoo- Huge spoiler or not?" Happy Naked New Year! Or rather, Happy New Year, Naked! I am so glad you posted about that Survivor Tattoo again. I don't think that that means he wins, but he may get as far as the final 3 or 2. Would a tattoo indicated Final 4? How important is a tattoo to people who get them? Any tattoo-ists out there? I would think it's pretty damn important. We all know that Teresa is gone this episode. So that leaves MK and the three men. If Lex wins the immunity after next(I think Ethan wins this one, per vidcaps), then of course, he stays. He's got ALL those votes, and I don't think the three remaining players, Ethan, Tom and MamaK, like Lex as much as they do each other. Maybe'll it be a deeply guy thing and they all vote MK off next because she's so bonded with Ethan, and could win the Fallen Comrades challenge, which still hasn't surfaced yet. If the immunity challenges at the end are physical, MK and Tom are both out as contenders. Tom wouldn't win a Fallen Comrades challenge, either, whereas MK might. So Tom is at the low point of the totem pole as I see it. Worse case scenario(cause I hate Lex), he wins the next IC, and gets immunity then, MK and Ethan HAVE to vote for Tom who has more votes. So then it's bye-bye Tom. Which makes the final three Lex, MK and Ethan. Then, if MK wins the Fallen Comrades challenge, she will most likely pick Ethan, because of their closeness due to the switch. Remember what Ethan told Lex when they came back together? His first thought was "I want my mommy!"And he got one, MAMA Kim! Of course, her REALLY hidden alliance could be with Lex! Not Ethan. However, she and Ethan seem really bonded and so do Ethan and Tom. Now, if ETHAN wins the next immunity(this is assuming Teresa goes tomorrow night)and they can't vote for him, I think MK and Tom will take Lex out in the tie-breaker moment. Tom HAS to vote for Lex, or it's him, because of his past votes. That leaves MK, Tom and Mamakim. A final three I'd be happier with. If Ethan, says, wins the Fallen Comrades challenge, would he vote popular lovable Tom off? Tom could win. I think he(Ethan) would want that money though. So it's bye-bye Tom. It's more likely that MK would vote "Tommy" off, leaving no resentment(or "No regrets" in the title.) Also, Tom's having ETHAN down to his farm indicates that Ethan did not betray or vote for him. A la the Final Three in S1. Richard did NOT betray his word to Rudy at the end. Kelly chose to vote off the popular Rudy. This could mean that MK chooses to send "Tommy" packing not Ethan. I would also like to point out that MK has not surfaced ANYwhere in print during this whole season. The only mention was possibly by Brandon when he said he had LUNCH WITH ETHAN AND KIM in New York. Now that could've been Kim P. But Conshoshocken PA isn't as close as Oyster Bay. Brandon's comment on Ethan "Jesus lives and he walks among us" indicates that Ethan is the winner,IMHO. These are the only two possible scenarios. Unless Lex wins the remaining two immunities and then he'd get rid of Ethan and then Tom. I think Lex would want to sit next to MK at the end, as the less likely or popular winner of the three. Of course, if Lex and Tom vote off MK at the tie-breaker- well, no, they can't. Ethan and MK would absolutely vote for one of the two of them who doesn't have immunity. Lex could get the tatoo cuz he's in the Final Three, IMHO. That would warrant the tattoo. And the final two, definately. Also, going back to the Walking Theasaurus'(Kelly)'s Early SHow spoiler-fest, she seemed to indicate "fun" time at the Lodge and also described Tom with the words "Fun", "funny" and "humorous" indicating to me that he was there. These final ICs are done one day after the other now as we get to the end. So that leaves less and less time at the Lodge. She said about Ethan "I felt like I hardly knew him" even though she spent all this time with him - IN THE TRIBE. I think she said that. OFG, and Danger Kitty, of course, will correct me with the correct quotes. This indicates no time at the lodge to me. The same, as noted many places, as her shockingly unresolved feelings for MK. She seemed to have SOME resolution of her feelings for Lex. She said something like, "He was worried how he was going to come off." And would she care even at this point? Not unless she had SOME mending time with him, and NOT just at the rap party. Those rap parties are chaotic, FYI, and you can't really have a substantial conversation where you're feelings for someone would change in such a riotous atmosphere. Well, I hope it's Ethan and MK in the final two. Or Ethan and Tom. Lex is still so disliked...And his starting a second witchhunt this week in the promos looks just horrendous. Why does he do these things? Ego? Paranoia? Stupidity? Self-destruction? And then there's the player we're all leaving out. Mark Burn-it. Who would he want as the winner? Ethan and Tom would be OK in his book. Lex might make him uneasy,(the tattoos, the witchhunts, et al) and MK is too much like Tina. So he may skew the challenges Ethan and Tom's way. It certainly seems like that's what he's doing tommorrow night with that impossibly grueling IC. MB LOVES Tom evidence his LARGE amount of screen time. And a sexy, young, smart guy like Ethan would play well to that "Friends" demographic he's trying to whoo back and whom all the advertisers love. Nobody in thier 20s has even won Survivor. Maybe Ethan and Tom are the Final Two... In any case whatever goes down does not cause any kind of permanent rift between the two. And we can figure back from there.   Top

evilj9 29 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 01-02-02, 03:16 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Lex's Tattoo- Huge spoiler or not?" Just a little input from someone sporting a few tattoos. I hate to categorize and stereotype people, but IMHO there are a few different types of people that get tattooed. There is the type of person that gets it done for some unknown reason. They ususally only get one or two tattoos and are generally out of sight when fully clothed. Then there are the people that get their first tattoo and are hooked. I think we can all agree that Lex is one of those types. So, my two cents are this. People who get "hooked" (like Lex) tend to view the whole tattooing experience as an almost religous experience. Each tattoo represents something important in their life. An example can be a family member or loved one. In addition, many times people choose a tattoo as a remembrance of an important life experience. Being selected as a contestant on Survivor is cool, but not worthy of a tattoo. Spending a long amount of time in the contest and experiencing some of the things we have seen so far WOULD merit a tattoo. However, it doesn't indicate that he has won. I know it's a stretch, but for example, I have a tattoo as a remembrance of my father who passed away five years ago. I hate the fact that my father is gone and view it as a loss. However, everything that I gained from my father has shaped who I am. Getting a tattoo was both a way to keep him with me,and a daily reminder to keep the lessons he taught me close to heart. Why wouldn't someone who lost on the show want a reminder of the time spent, the awesome experiences he shared and the lessons he learned? You don't have to be a winner to want that. Ok - off my soapbox. That said - GO LEX! I don't think that MB should be worried about having (I'll quote another poster somewhere on the board) a "tattoed paranoid freak" as the winner of this show. He may be paranoid (I think all of us would be a little paranoid given the circumstances. . .) but he has also shown that he is a loving, caring family man. He has played the game well. There is more going on behind the scenes than we are allowed to see. I think Lex is exactly the type of spokesperson the show needs. As always, in evil, j9   Top

Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 01-01-02, 02:21 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Can Lex win?" A couple of thoughts on this: >1. Lex's Tattoo > Lex got a new tattoo >of the Survivor Africa emblem. >He just doesn't seem to >be the kind of guy >that would be happy enough >about his experiance to get >this tattoo if he didn't >win. The Survivors don't know who won but do know the final two players. My guess is that Lex got to the final two and thinks he won or has a legitimate chance at winning. Remember his son saying that his Dad won. But Lex is delusional enough not to realize his true chances. Assuming a final two of Lex and another Boran. This would make the jury Kelly and the four Samburu. Kelly blames primarily Lex for her boot but has some hard feelings toward MamaKim too. I believe she would vote for anyone else even MK over Lex. Of the old Samburu, Frank, Teresa and KimP all seem to dislike Lex. T-bird seems more amiable toward him that the others but it appears to be her diplomatic nature rather than any true good feelings toward Lex. Note the jubilation of T-bird and KimP when his last jug was broken at the IC. It's more than strategy, they do not like him or his antics. It reminds me of the old Kucha and their reactions toward Keith. That leaves Brandon. Brandon likes Lex but has stressed in his interviews that he put his personal feelings aside when he voted in the finals for the best player. Strategically, when Lex and OB dumped Kelly it was a very poor game move and done at Lex's instigation. Also, Brandon has seen Lex's angry outbursts. This is not good game playing and Brandon respects the game. I can see Brandon voting for Lex against MK, possibly, but not Ethan and probably not against Tom. If Lex loses all of the above votes, it will not matter how the other two jury members vote because it will already be decided. The Richard arguement of playing the game best is not going to work for Lex because it was pure luck and KimP being a poor strategist that saved him. The other OB are not particularly great strategists either but they have not gone on vendettas and tirades (neither did Richard). Lex's only shot would be against MK and I can't see him getting enough Samburu votes to pull out a win. This may be the first American Survivor landslide vote. I'm just iffy about 7-0 or 6-1 if he's in the finals with Ethan or Tom.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-01-02, 03:56 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Can Lex win?" At this point I think Lex or anyone could win it. It could be the final move that turns jury members against one of the finalists. The person with Lex in the final could do something to get there that rubs the jury members the wrong way. Remember Kelly turned on Sue at the last moment. Sue got angry and let everyone know what she thought of Kelly's actions. Some people can be swayed very easily. Look how easy it was for Lex to turn his tribe against Kelly. At this point I see Tom being booted this week. Lex or Teresa seems too obvious to me. I hate the obvious. And everyone has to be worried about good old goofy Tom in the final. Tom has definitely had his face time. And it would give Kelly a chance to have fun with Tom at the lodge. We know Tom won't win the IC this week. Then next week when it is down to 4 I think Teresa could win the IC and force Ethan and Lex to boot MamaKim. Leaving Teresa, Ethan and Lex in the final 3. And at that point I think Lex makes the final 2. Either he wins the IC or gets taken there by Teresa or Ethan. They would both be counting on beating Lex in the final.   Top

strone 70 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 01-02-02, 02:31 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Can Lex win?" NO friggin way, his "cut your throat" campaign will get him no brownie points with anyone if he were to make the final 2, however I see his departure EP13 or 14.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-02-02, 02:43 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Can Lex win?" Make that ep13a or ep13b; the final two ic's and boots, and the last tc before the jury, will be in the two-hour finale on January 10, followed by the 1-hour reunion (where we should get an advance glimpse of the setting for S4). Just wanted to toss in my opinion about Lex's Survivor tattoo; it means nothing other than being in Survivor has been something tremendously huge in his life and he wished to include it with the rest of his tattoos mapping out his own life. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-02-02, 03:40 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Can Lex win?" I don't think the tattoo means Lex won either. Several Olympic athletes get tattoos when they have competed in the Olympics. And they weren't all gold medal winners.   Top

Afreaqua 181 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 01-02-02, 03:48 PM (EST) 9. "Highly possible to make the final 2...not to win" If Lex were to go up against ANYONE that is left at this point, he would lose with the jury.   Top

GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 01-02-02, 05:16 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Can Lex win?" Lex's tattoos indicate he is proud of his Survivor experience and most likely that he has "No Regrets." But even if he got voted out at the Final Four stage and certainly if he made the Top 3 I think he would feel that way. As best we've been shown, LET's goal was to make the Final 3 and go from there. Winning takes strategy but also a bit of luck. That said, I totally agree with Naked that a) Lex would have zero chance of beating either Teresa or Ethan but that b) he might be able to beat either Tom or MamaKim. Tom In this case, Lex could argue that he held true to his LET core to the end, including swearing on his son, led his tribe, and won more challenges. Evidence of Tom's bigoted behavior and general lack of interest in trial strategy might well appeal to the more "strategy minded" players in the game. Lex would have at least a decent shot of winning votes from Ethan, MamaKim, Teresa, and Brandon. MamaKim The argument here would probably be that Mama was carried throughout the game and should have been voted out somewhere around E3. She only made it as far as she did because people like Lex--and all the people Mama has since voted out--carried her as far as they did. If Tom and Ethan don't hold a grudge for the abandonment of LET they could vote for Lex. Even if not, Frank the chauvinist probably wants a man to win, Teresa and Kim P could resent Mama for refusing an all-female alliance. Brandon clearly likes Lex better than Mama. My own hunch is that Lex gets his due and America will relish Lex's eventual vote-out. But I still think a Lex victory is a slight possibility.   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 01-02-02, 08:32 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Can Lex win?" I shy away from making predictions about who can or cannot win this game. During the first Survivor, the only thing we were certain about was that Richard Hatch could not beat anyone. I also would have bet my life that Colby could beat Tina. I will say that Lex DOES NOT DESERVE to beat any of the remaining players except for KimJ, in my own opinion. I think he both deserves, and can beat KimJ, although I don't forsee this as a final two. As for going up against Tom or Ethan, my guess is that his hubris would prevent him from realizing they have a much better chance of winning than him - I don't think he has any inkling that he might not win if he made final two. I also want to point out how easily swayed we are by editing. In the beginning we loved Lex, now we hate him. Has anyone noticed what a great guy he's being portrayed as nowadays on the show? I would have missed it myself but that I watched the show for the first time with my mother because of Christmas. This last episode is the only one she's seen of Survivor Africa. When I suggested that some people thought Lex might be voted off she replied "Oh, no - how could you think that? He's the one that's there for the audience to relate to." She thought his role was to be "normal" and "likable" and someone a person like her could bond with. Which is doubly odd for my mother to say about someone with so many tattoos. I also want to throw in something along the lines of whether the winner is actually the "star" of the show. There is a theory that MB edited S2 with the idea that Colby was the winner. Then we might have a consistency between S1 and S2 that the winner (or at least final two and person most likley to win) is portrayed as the star of the overall show. I think he's going soon (cause I think Ethan wins) but Big Tom gets star billing on S3. Followed closely by Lex. Could they be final two? Might be smart to get rid of Ethan, unless they are both suffering from hubris.   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-02-02, 10:40 PM (EST) 12. "Jury votes" Let's assume that Krautboy is right and the Old Boran make up the entire final four. Further, let's assume that Lex is one of the final 2. What are his chances of winning? Well, for one thing, we don't know the circumstances under which the last two Boran would have been booted. But let's go forward anyway: Lex v. Ethan Brandon votes for Lex. Kelly votes for Ethan. I believe Teresa would also support Ethan, on the grounds that they were tribemates and he was always fair to her. That's 2-1, Ethan. If Tom and Ethan are really a core alliance, as Lex said after the food auction, then Tom would probably support Ethan too, despite his gratitude about the safari. That's 3-1. Ethan only needs one more vote. He'd probably get that from KimP, who is more likely to vote along with Tom and Kelly than Brandon (and who did night watches with Ethan), but it's not a lock. We can't say for sure how Ethan's New Boran tribemates Frank (who respects strength and looked at Lex as a similar personality type -- but Ethan isn't a weakling either) or KimJ (who Lex said was more closely allied with him, but who seems to have looked to Ethan for guidance on the Brandon situation) would vote, but it probably doesn't matter. Ethan could win by any margin from 4-3 to 6-1. Lex v. Tom Brandon votes for Lex. Kelly votes for Tom. Anyone who can tell me to any degree of certainty how the others vote gets my respect. Just guessing, I think that Ethan and Frank probably vote for Tom, T-bird and KimJ probably vote for Lex (yes, despite all their discussion about booting him, because T-bird seems to be a lot closer to Lex than to Tom), and KimP casts the deciding vote for Tom. Either could win, although I think a 4-3 Tom victory is slightly more likely. Lex v. KimJ Brandon votes for Lex. Frank votes for Lex, despite having been in New Boran with KimJ, because he respects strength. T-bird votes for her friend KimJ. Who knows about the other votes? Ethan and Kelly probably vote alike, but for different reasons -- Ethan votes for whom he likes more; Kelly votes for whom she hates less. I would guess that they both vote for Lex. KimP and Tom are toss-ups, but Lex may already have won no matter how they vote. The point that I'm making is that we simply don't know enough to make a prediction about who is a good final two opponent. None of these people appears to be a Susan Hawk, making enemies wherever she goes. People like Tom ... but people liked Colby, too, and still voted for Tina. Anyway, if I were part of TEK, I'd boot Lex ASAP ... and I wouldn't think that I'd hurt my chances to win it all one bit.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-03-02, 00:09 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Jury votes" I'll play. Lex vs Ethan Kelly * Ethan Brandon * Lex Frank * Lex Kim P. * Ethan Kim J. * Ethan Teresa * Lex Tom * Lex Lex vs Tom Kelly * Tom Brandon * Lex Frank * Tom Kim P. * Tom Kim J. * Tom Teresa * Lex Ethan * Tom Lex vs Kim J. Kelly * Lex Brandon * Lex Frank * Kim J. Kim P. * Lex Teresa * Kim J. Ethan * Kim J. Tom * Lex Lex vs Teresa Kelly * Teresa Brandon * Lex Frank * Teresa Kim P. * Teresa Ethan * Lex Tom * Lex Kim J. * Lex Honestly, I think all this "who can you beat in the final two" speculation is a deadend, what each player has to be most concerned about at this point in the game is getting to the final two. Lex is his own worst enemy at this stage, not because he's ruining his chances with the jury, but because his overt paranoia makes him unpredictable. Teresa is going to try everything she can in order to stay in the game, the others know this and won't hold it against her, but there's nothing she can really do (short of winning immunity) for herself. If Lex gets undone this week it will only be because his gut leads him down the road to ruin. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-03-02, 01:35 AM (EST) 14. "Agree" Well, I don't necessarily agree with your jury analysis, dabo, but I agree with this statement: >Honestly, I think all this "who can you beat in the >final two" speculation is a deadend, what each player has >to be most concerned about at this point in the >game is getting to the final two. Right. My point, though, is that even if you DID want to keep someone around because you were certain of beating that person in the final two, Lex wouldn't be such a person! Lex is not a guaranteed loser.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-03-02, 02:30 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Jury votes" LAST EDITED ON 01-03-02 AT 02:36 AM (EST) I agree with AyaK that the manner in which the last two Boran get booted may change everything. Namely, a betrayal could cause a real upset. But what constitutes a betrayal when you are down to cannibalization time? Only betraying your secret F2 suballiance... dabo, I mostly agree with your jury votes, as of now, on Lex and Ethan, with the exception of Big Tom. >Lex vs Ethan >Kelly * Ethan >Brandon * Lex >Frank * Lex >Kim P. * Ethan >Kim J. * Ethan >Teresa * Lex >Tom * Lex I think Tom will vote for Ethan due to the way Lex slipped in Tom's estimation of what constitutes loyalty. I agree that Teresa has huge respect for Lex. She has said she's crazy about him every time she votes against him. He's closest to her age and a loving family man. I also agree that Frank will likely give his respect vote to the alpha dog that won the fair fight, plus to a fellow-father. No question in my mind the other girls vote for cute Ethan, Kelly because she dislikes Lex, and the two Kims because they adore Ethan and he played the game pretty perfectly. I think Ethan's "walking on water" voyage through the game annoys Brandon (B's Jesus remark, for example, gives a hint of jealousy), plus they never developed a bond, as Lex and Brandon did. The "walk of shame" remark that Lex threw out in front of the jury will likely piss Kelly off, but Brandon is the master of cutting remarks, so I doubt he'll hold that against Lex. If Tom is the swing vote, then we can come full circle to his original votes to remind Clarence that Tom doesn't forget. Tom is a Scorpio, one motto of the sign being "Revenge is a dish best served cold." In other words, not served in the heat of the game when it might cost you, but with due consideration and when it hurts the most. It's not a MEAN thing; that's just how Scorpions are when they get trodden on--they instinctively sting back and make the point it's not cool to mess with them. Ever.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-03-02, 09:59 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Jury votes" Well, we may never know, should Lex not reach the final two then none of the scenarios I speculated on above can come to pass. In the Lex vs Ethan scenario Tom's vote was the toughest call; would he vote for Lex who has been such a dominant factor in the game, or would Lex lose Tom's vote for having misplayed some things so badly? Ethan has been an excellent team player, and he's done well on the social playing field (particularly for one so reserved as he is), but he hasn't done much to stand out. He's certainly earned Tom's trust and friendship, but what has Ethan done to earn Tom's vote in the end? I couldn't really think of anything, so that's how I determined Tom's vote in that scenario. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 01-03-02, 04:37 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Jury votes" IMHO, I think Ethan would win in a landslide vs anyone left. I think that the rest of the Survivors realize this. It was even mentioned by Theresa a couple of weeks ago, and KimJ agreed with her. I think the strategy would have to be to keep him out of the final 2 in order for Lex, or anyone else to win. Naked   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 01-03-02, 05:56 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Jury votes" He's >certainly earned Tom's trust and >friendship, but what has Ethan >done to earn Tom's vote >in the end? First of all, just because we haven't seen him do much, doesn't mean nothing's happening. We never saw Tina run the game from start to finish either. I do think that Lex did things to LOSE the game - when he made his paranoid play for Kelly. We also saw Tom and Ethan together SAVE Boran when they voted off Brandon. So I do think there's evidence that Ethan has actually been playing the game, although it is well hidden from us in the editing. Remember the Suvivor Insider that showed every single's person's comments when they voted for Kelly except Ethan? I think when it comes down to the four Boran we have two that are playing well: Tom and Ethan. One who has played badly: Lex. And one inanimate object: KimJ. Basically any of the top three should beat the inanimate object. The two playing well should beat the one playing badly etc. And, although there are always a few revenge and hurt feelings votes, both S1 and S2 ultimately picked the person they thought had played the best. I further think its impossible to pick how the voting will go. Did anyone think Rodger would have voted Colby over Tina? I wasn't suprised, but I don't think anyone would have sat back and predicted it. Lex vs. Ethan - here's my 2 cents and why I think most votes are unpredictable, although I feel that three can be predicted. Kelly * Ethan - this does seem a no-brainer Brandon * 50/50 although friends with Lex, he has stated his final vote was purely who played the best and not an emotional vote which could imply Ethan in this scenario Frank * 50/50 - personally I think Frank quite bonded with Ethan during the switch, but then Lex is a family man. Or he could go purely by strategy in which case it SHOULD be Ethan. But who knows how Frank's mind works. KimP * 50/50 - although least likely to vote on strategy, it's hard to tell what her emotional connection to either is. Teresa * 50/50 has stated that Lex has strong leadership skills and she respects him. Has also stated Ethan is a shoe-in to win because he's a great guy and has played well. Tom * Ethan - I think Tom gets strategy and would give it to the worthier winner KimJ * Ethan - He's played "nice." I think when she said how if she can't win she wants someone she admire up there - she meant Ethan.   Top

mrmobius2002 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 01-03-02, 05:20 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Can Lex win?" MrMobius2000 I just don't see how Lex can win. His plotting and two-faced-ness have, I think, ruined him with the jury. In fact, I think the strategy to win is, be paired in the final 2 with Lex, because I don't think there is any way in hell the jury would vote for Lex over any of the other remaining survivors.   Top

blimey 7 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 01-04-02, 06:41 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Can Lex win? Lex would beat ThongGranny in a final 2" >MrMobius2000 > > I just don't see >how Lex can win. >His plotting and two-faced-ness have, >I think, ruined him with >the jury. In fact, >I think the strategy to >win is, be paired in >the final 2 with Lex, >because I don't think there >is any way in hell >the jury would vote for >Lex over any of the >other remaining survivors. I think that Lex would lose to KimJ in the unlikely event it comes down to the 2 of them. The Jury will say that Lex "played the game". KimJ has done so many stupid things along the way and only by the grace of other personalities and timing is she here now. I don't recall anyone really being friendly with her.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 01-04-02, 04:24 PM (EST) 20. "My thoughts" I thought this thread is even more relevant now that we know the final four. I don't think Lex can win and here's why: If Lex loses the final 4 IC, Tom, KimJ and Ethan would be crazy not to boot him (does anyone disagree with that?). In fact, if they let him advance to the final 3 without immunity, and he goes on to win it all, then they deserve to lose to him. I think Ep12 showed us that Ethan and possibly KimJ and Tom are sick of losing to Lex. Never mind alliances at this point; it's time to do what you have to do! I think the only way Lex makes the final 2 is if he wins both remaining ICs (very possible). But historically speaking, the person who is CHOSEN to go to the final 2 by the IC winner wins the whole thing. Of course, that may not happen this time but let's think about it: Both Rich and Tina were at the complete mercy of Kelly and Colby. They both masterminded the game to where they were taken to the final 2 by very strong competitors. The jury saw that to be the case, and that's why they won. So if Lex loses both ICs, yet is allowed to stay in the game and is actually chosen for the final 2, then I won't completely throw up if he wins! bebe   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 01-04-02, 04:40 PM (EST) 21. "RE: My thoughts" >If Lex loses the final 4 >IC, Tom, KimJ and Ethan >would be crazy not to >boot him (does anyone disagree >with that?). I disagree with that. I think they're crazy not to boot Ethan or Tom, but not Lex. However, the last episode made it painfully clear that they all WANT to book Lex (except for, ironically, Tom), so I'll back you up that the only way he survives is by winning immunity.   Top

shanana banana 658 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 01-04-02, 09:22 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Can Lex win?" Lex can win if he makes it to the final two with Momma Kim. That is the one person I believe he can win against. Like in SI with Richard Hatch, when it comes down to voting, many of the jurors will believe Lex at least played the game and played hard, whereas Momma Kim did nothing but double talk and coast along on the coattails of the Boran men. She did nothing to deserve being the final Survivor and I think just about the entire jury would see that. She may get some anti-Lex votes from Kelly and possibly Little Kim, but I can't see anyone else feeling that she deserves to be the winner. shanana banana   Top

macamrox 76 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 01-04-02, 10:53 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Can Lex win?" The same can be said of Ethan. We haven't really seen him do anything but coast along in his alliance. He did win immunity once. His strategy has not yet been revealed to us--if he even has one. At least we saw people like Lex and Teresa out there taking risks and playing the game. Last week even Mama Kim appeared to be "working it" by teaming up with Teresa to chisel away at Lex's trust in Tom. I agree that Lex stands a good chance against Mama in F2, but I believe that he is playing the game better than Ethan and Tom too, and the jury may recognize this (I mean the man has made it this far with all those votes against him--and there were several missed opportunities to vote him out).   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 01-04-02, 11:50 PM (EST) 25. "Not necessarily a loser." It's the editing. We are shown one thing, but the players themselves are experiencing another. As I'm sure everyone at SB is aware, the confessionals are said directly to the cameracrew and presumably not over heard by the other players. An exception to this may have been Brandon's over-hearing Kelly's "I'm a free agent" speech, when he wasn't supposed to have been there. And then repeating it to Lex on their famous all-night watch. Teresa revealed a few interesting things today on the Early Show and so did MB, who was with her. I had to give major props to MB for this past episode. Bringing AIDS to the forefront of the mass viewing audience in such a positive, moving way was a great use of the power of television. I will never type "EPMB" again. (Oops! I just did...) Both MB and Teresa spoke very highly and warmly about Lex. I was surprised. Their was nothing but admiration in their tones of voice. No hostility, really. Are they trying to tell us something about Lex? MB made a point of saying that Lex spoke Swahili, something I didn't know before. Also, Teresa seemed to indicate that Kelly had done things to the others to get herself voted off. She wasn't just an innocent victim. Did she say something to the effect that "They all had their reasons"? Meaning that it wasn't Lex and Lemmings voting Kelly off. We didn't see what Kelly did to alienate Ethan, Tom and MK. But evidently Teresa did. It's the editing again, kids. This is also beginning to remind me of the way MB edited the Tagi(Richard's) alliance in S1. Weren't they always shown as breaking up, but they never did? I also have to point out that Ethan had two encounters with Brandon when he was in New York. According to Brandon, he had lunch(or brunch) with "Ethan and Kim". We don't know which Kim. And then Ethan and a bunch of his friends took Brandon for a night out on the town!?! Sounds like Ethan got Brandon's vote, one way or the other. If Ethan makes it to the F2 I think the most important statement in this thread though is that "LEX IS NOT NECESSARILY A LOSER." Ethan should he get the chance would have a much better chance with Mamakim than Lex, really. Especially if you really break it down. Suppose MK and Ethan have to vote out Tom over Lex next week because it's a tie-breaker and Lex wins immunity AGAIN? How is Tom gonna feel about Ethan then? Does Ethan get Tom's vote if he votes him out? Lex also has an autistic child, which I'm sure they all know, and which may make people feel that he needs the money more than single, young, handsome Ethan... We also do not KNOW what kind of game Ethan's been playing because we simply haven't been shown it - like Tina. Did we know that she was masterminding every step of the Ogre Corps'way? NO! Also, Colby's one big mistake, I'm beginning to see was not choosing Tina, but hooking up with Jerri. It's now coming out that she was trying to get everyone to vote AGAINST Colby. And she swung at least Alicia and maybe Elizabeth against him. Hell hath no fury... So Colby had an angry, spurned girlfriend out gunning for him on the jury in S2. Ethan doesn't have that. Lex, however, has "the walking thesaurus" Kelly. And from T-Bird's comments she seems to like Leeven though she voted against him over and over again) more than Ethan...Strange...And then in the end she voted for Tom? How does Teresa feel about Ethan? Well, there was that tinge of jealousy on the Early Show today. So why didn't she throw a vote on Ethan? She could've...Was she paving the way for him to win? LIKE TINA, HE HAS NO VOTES AGAINST HIM. I also want to point out what a MAJOR sound mixing miracle they pulled off with the way they edited Teresa's VOICE on the series. This morning on the Early Show, I thought it was Tina! Unedited, or unmixed, Their voices are SOOOOO similar. It was eerie. They did something to her voice as she spoke on S3 to make her sound more, well, melliflous, than mettalic Tina. Today on the Early Show. She sounded, well, metallic, too. This may also have been a reason we didn't see(or hear) much from her till the merge.   Top

ret2xanadu 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 01-05-02, 02:54 AM (EST) 26. "RE: Can Lex win?" I definately believe Lex can win. I think Tom's gone because nobody will believe they can beat Tom in the final 2, no matter what people will say about it...it's going to be too little too late...Tom has been a true genius. Lex can beat either Ethan or Kim and here's why: Kim: nobody knows who this person is. Survivor didn't show anything about her. If she wins, it'll be really boring. And if nobody knows much about her, how can she win? Her strategy might have been to stay low-key, and that may get her to the final 3 or final 2, but that doesn't mean she deserves the million dollars. Ethan: he played the game great, but did not show much as well in personality. he was very secretive. he also purposely threw one of the challenges. if anyone on the jury knows about that, he may not get their votes. By the way, I think Lex will give himself an even better chance of winning if he votes off Kim instead of Ethan, to go up with the best of the other two, not the weakest...it'll get him respect points...this was the big mistake Kelly made when she voted off Rudy...she was close to winning, but she didn't win, and the whole world hated her. Lex has been portrayed as the bad guy. He's got tattoos. He's eccentric and speaks his mind. But he's also played the game well. This guy has pissed a lot of people off, but by making it to the final 2, that is a heck of an accomplishment and I think people will definately respect that. He wasn't afraid to be himself, he took chances...he went with his gut, whether it was right or wrong...he was true to himself. So he didn't vote for Brandon...Brandon got kicked off anyway so his vote didn't even matter. Lex was awesome physically and mentally towards the last stretch. I personally don't like the guy...I would be afraid to shake his hand, but I definately think he deserves to win.   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 01-10-02, 12:33 PM (EST) 28. "Lex's disabled son" I think the fact that Lex's oldest son is disabled by autism may insure him a spot in the final two. But does the jury know this? Does it become an issue that the other final three are upper-middle if not actually well off? (Tom has two farms, for instance) Lex may desparately need this money and the other's do not. Lex's son - the big secret of S3?   Top

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 01-10-02, 12:03 PM (EST) 27. "RE: Can Lex win?" BUMPING !!! ( OK, OK, I'm an attention starved media Whore ) I thought that people might want to read this today. Dabo has a thread that refered to Rose's post here, and I wanted to put it back up.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 01-10-02, 01:00 PM (EST) 29. "Yes He Can!!!!" ...and here's how (copied from my post to the vote thread, where I picked K/E/T/L): -Lex is by far the most complex character this time. We know all about him, so he absolutely MUST be in the final two, either as the winner or the bad guy. -Kim is absolutely not in the final two, as one of the least complex characters of the entire series. -Lex's children thought he won... probably got the idea from Daddy (or at least overheard it). If there is a lockbox, this means that Lex was at least final two, and also may indicate that he faced someone that he believed that he could beat... Tom makes more sense in this role than Ethan. -If Tom and Lex make it to the final two, how did they get there? Answer: the alliance formed on day two was revealed to us will hold strong. Tom and Lex will remain true to each other. -Why does Kim finish fourth? It would be unwise for any of the males to save Kim because they would lose votes on the jury, and also risk her winning immunity. Lex especially won't risk this, because either Ethan or Tom would take him to the finals due to underlying alliances. Kim offers Lex no such guarantee (she appears to be closest with Ethan and might take him). -But what about Kim's finishing fourth comment? This will be clouded by Lex's apparent witch hunt aginst Tom, prompted by T-Bird's revelation that Tom conspired against him. His comments (as always) will be made to the camera and not to the contestants, and will thus have no direct bearing on game play. -Why reveal the Lex/Tom alliance? Lex and Tom are allied to the end. However, Tom's attempts to give Lex previous votes and Lex's apparent witch hunt will hide this alliance from view during the next episode. When one of these chooses the other in the final IC, the alliance will provide immediate justification for the decision (in addition to the obvious: They each stand a much better chance of winning without Ethan in the final two). -Between Lex and Tom, who will win? Lex has been edited as evil, but ultimately played the game the best, and will stick to his alliances to the end. Although his gut was wrong about Kelly, he will earn the respect of the audience (much like Rich did) as he explains himself to the jury. Tom, on the other hand, has been extremely non-PC, and yet MB allowed his comments to air, offending a portion of the audience. This is not the way that MB would edit a millionaire (and recall his interview-- he knows who won, and is editing accordingly). -But how can Lex win? With the exception of Kelly, no one on the jury has expressed true resentment toward Lex. Brandon, Tom, Kim J, and Ethan like him. Teresa, Kim P, and Frank respect his strategy (although they attempted to vote out the leader of the opposing tribe). While some of the above (Kim P!!!) may vote for Tom over Lex, Lex can still pull out a win. -Then why edit Lex as evil? To hide his dominance in the game. A likable person that continuously wins immunity and is in a powerful alliance has already been seen in S2 (Colby). MB had to build suspense by making it seem that Lex would be voted out if he ever lost immunity, and also had to hide Lex's strong position in the game. He has managed to uphold Lex's unliked personna by using comments about wanting to vote him out (that were strategically based), being tired of his continuous wins (as any competitor would be), and also using Kelly's hateful comments. -Why did Kelly hate Lex? My suspicion is that Lex was the only one that told her where to stuff it. You will notice that no one had many nice things to say about Kelly, and her profile fits Jerri's exactly. My suspicion is that MB didn't forget to cast a Jerri this season... he did, and her name was Kelly (whose best friend after the game is Silas-- someone that was never in a tribe or on the jury with her). Kelly had to be edited as likable so that the audience would buy her dislike of Lex, but no one liked her... Lex was just the one that told her so (or at least snubbed her). She took this personally, providing the comments to the camera necessary to plant the seeds of Lex-ful hate. (Even Clarence didn't have as much to say about Lex as Kelly when Clarence was voted out). -Note on editing: Ethan was barely featured until the merge. Tom and Lex, on the other hand, have always been central characters to the show. They are the only ones that have been edited to be in the final two. -An Ethan win is obvious to all of America. This is not the way it should be. In S1, Rich seemed like he could not win. In S2, it seemed that whoever won the final immunity (Colby or Tina) would take Keith to the finals, and would easily win. When this didn't happen, it left a truly suspenseful ending. -Surprise Finish: As mentioned above, surprise in S1 was created with a non-likable person winning, although Rich did nothign to hide his alliance. In S2, it was easily created because Tina and Colby hid their alliance, and thus people thought there were many false alliances in play (ie: Tina/Keith)... unfortunately for MB, S3 left him with a likable winner that was blatantly obvious about his allies. MB chose to edit him as unlikable to falsely re-introduce the element of surprise to the game (although T-Bird points out that it was obvious to her who would win the game). -That's my last official GUT of the season... and just in time for the vote thread. You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

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