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"Did Lex Really Betray OB?"
zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-21-01, 02:48 PM (EST)
 
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"Did Lex Really Betray OB?" |
I have been thinking about last nights episode (12/20), and something Tom said really bothers me. He seems to imply that Lex betrayed him and Ethan. Here is Tom's quote, part I think is a confessional and part in a conversation with Ethan (hard to tell from the transcript):----------------------------------------------------------------- <Lex is> worried because he knows Ethan and I didn't like what he done. At the last tribal council, Lex cast a vote for Brandon instead of Frank. We had an alliance and the alliance was we'd vote together. And Lex jeopardized that alliance when he voted for Frank. . . . Because when he made that agreement with Brandon, he didn't come to me. He didn't come to you either. He did it on his own. All he was worried about was Lex. Now he's got to thinking about me and you, right? ---------------------------------------------------------------- I am really troubled by this quote for a few reasons. First, this alliance seemingly goes way back to near the beginning. If this is the case, then Tom "broke" the alliance when he voted for Clarence twice. Jessi claims he voted for Clarence because they had an "alliance". Whether that is true or not, Tom did not vote with Ethan and Lex, as he claims the alliance requires. Ethan and Tom are now acting like Lex brought Brandon into the alliance behind their backs and without their consent and then sided with Brandon over them. We don't see everything that happens, but I think we see enough to know this characterization is not true. Let's retrace the steps and see what we know. Lex decides he want to get rid of Kelly. Tom and Ethan could have said "NO," but they didn't. The only way they could get rid of Kelly was to bring someone on board. Lex suggested Brandon. Lex told Tom and Ethan he was bringing Brandon into the alliance. We SAW with our own eyes Lex telling them that he trusted Brandon to vote against Kelly. They could have said they trusted Kelly more, but they chose to use Brandon's vote to oust Kelly. Sure Lex went to Brandon and made the deal first. But before implementing it, he went to Tom and Ethan. Lex even told them that he promised Brandon fifth place. They are just a responsible in my opinion for bringing Brandon in by following Lex's suggestion as if they brought Brandon in themselves. "Buyer's remorse" after the fact does not justify saying that Lex brought Brandon in behind their backs without their consent. It is convenient to re-write history sometimes, but I believe Tom and Ethan are full of **it if they claim Lex brought Brandon into the alliance without going to them first. Of course, the "betrayal" they are really referring to is the vote against Frank instead of Brandon. So let us examine what happened there. We saw Lex say he could not vote against Brandon because he made a promise to him. Without that promise, they could not have booted Kelly the prior TC, a move that all of OB agreed to do. So we see Ethan trying to argue with Lex that his promise to OB should be stronger than his promise to Brandon. Lex seems to argue, although I don't remember actually seeing exactly what he says, that he wants to keep his promises to everyone but that Ethan, Tom and KimJ are free to recruit votes against Brandon. I just do not see this as a betrayal of OB. Lex told Ethan and Tom exactly what he planned to do. He never hid his intention to vote with Brandon (as Ethan and Tom seemed to imply). He was 100% up front with them on his intentions. There was a disagreement, and Lex was in the minority. But Lex never voted against an ally (other than Kelly who he believed had already betrayed them). Tom and Ethan were willing to betray another ally--Brandon--who in my opinion they made their ally by letting Lex convince them to bring in and vote against Kelly. They may have never viewed Brandon as an ally, but they certainly used him to their advantage and knew at the time that Lex was bringing him in as an ally. Furthermore they wanted to vote against Brandon in favor of someone that had just voted against Lex. I am sorry--but I believe that Lex has just as good if not a better argument that Ethan and Tom betrayed him. I know that we don't see everything that goes on. But haven't we seen enough to know that Lex did not betray his allies and they are being unreasonable?
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-21-01, 03:00 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Did Lex Really Betray OB?" |
I completely agree with this assessment. In order for Lex to have gone against the alliance he would have had to vote to hurt the alliance. As it were, both he and Brandon were voting to help out the alliance. Oddly enough, Tom Ethan and Mama Kim did not do that, and for some reason felt that they had to vote for Brandon instead of assuring that they could vote off Frank with a 5-3 split. They were taking a huge risk by doing this, because of the fact that Frank, Teresa and Little Kim could have easily voted off one of them by simply pooling their votes to go against an original Boran member. It all worked out, since the Old Samburu's were quite stupid in voting one of their original members off, but this game could be very different right now. I think when Lex said taht Brandon saved their asses, he was correct. So in that regard, I think that Lex was actually doing the morally right thing, by voting for Frank last episode. I think, however, that this will no longer come in to play, since the rest of the Boran's voted against Frank this past TC. Most likely, Tom and Ethan and Mama Kim are all fine with what Lex did at this point.
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kuchakor 126 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-23-01, 01:29 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Did Lex Really Betray OB?" |
Just bringing up a point you made in the beginning......Tom never betrayed the Old Boran Alliance in the beginning. I distinctly remember Lex saying something at the very beginning of Episode 2 about "one of the us had to show Clarence a lesson with a vote" or something of the manner, basically he was saying that they wanted to teach Clarence a lesson for the bean incident, so one of them voted for him. Since Tom seemed the most pissed off over the beans, he was the one to cast the vote. Tom and Lex had a tight alliance back then, and I think we would've heard more from Lex had Tom voted out of alliance.
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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-21-01, 03:17 PM (EST)
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3. "Lex is The Fall Guy" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-21-01 AT 03:19 PM (EST)I'm going to go back to my original (since the twist) theory that I gave up only when I was so exasperated by the seeming stupidity of the Kelly vote. I always believed Ethan was running the alliance - but allowing Lex to appear to be running it so that he could get all the animosity from those voted out. So Lex becomes paranoid and wants to vote out kelly - if you go along with this he looks like someone who ultimately allowed his paranoia to put the alliance in a dangerous position. You allow him to make an ally which you ultimately intend to take out next. Lex starts to look worse and worse. Now, you're right - Lex was totally up front about how he would be voting and did the only morally acceptable thing in his position. His word to Brandon was "number five." And yes, that word is just as good as his word to LET - "top three." But to make a federal case about it once again makes Lex look bad. Really, people are being painted stragely in this game. Those in power can say that those not in power, in trying to save themselves are "playing not nice." And they are quickly ridding themselves of anyone with the ability to do their own strategizing. Ultimately, I think all this fuss about Lex betraying the alliance allows one of two things: An excuse (bullshit though it may be) to take out Lex "honestly". Or the smarter way to go - take Lex to final two while branding him a "dirty player." Hence, the fall guy.
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Serendipity 525 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-23-01, 11:25 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Lex is The Fall Guy" |
The big problem is that we don't see everything.I was surprised by the concern over the closeness between Lex and Brandon because I didn't see anything to indicate this was so. But it was a worry to Tom and Ethan so I figured there was more to it. From Lex's comments on last Thursday's show, I must now assume it was true. Lex feels betrayed (and I should check the tape for the exact words before I quote so go ahead and flame me if I'm way off base) because they "knew how close I was to Brandon and yet they voted him off anyway". This comment alone makes me feel that Lex was indeed endangering the alliance by this growing friendship with Brandon. Had Brandon been allowed to stick around, would Lex have gotten even closer? Maybe yes, maybe no, but a concern that had to be dealt with by Brandon's ouster - made easier by the fact that everyone else wanted him to go as well.
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drich61 558 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-23-01, 02:52 PM (EST)
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8. "conversations to the JURY" |
At this point I think Ethan, Tom, and maybe also KimJ, are all playing the same end game. Hoping to be in the final, with Lex sitting next to them. With Lex sitting there with them, they can honestly claim that they never betrayed their alliance to get there, and have a darned good shot of winning. When they speak to each other, they aren't seeing the other as allies as much as they are seeing the other as a jury member. So they each want to paint themselves as the good guy where Lex is the bad guy. So they tell each other Lex didn't go to them first before bringing Brandon on board, to make themselves look innocent to a jury member.This week it is still too early for them to start going after each other, the one being gunned for could jump to Teresa and KimP as kelly did and cause a tied vote. So Teresa or KimP must go this week, I feel Lex would think with Frank gone he could control Teresa more than he could KimP. So I'm sticking with KimP to go this week. Then Ethan, Tom, and KimJ would then let Lex start deciding whom goes next again, to make him the bad guy and NOT themselves. From the way Lex was speaking this past week, I would say (and strongly hope) that it would then be Tom that goes. I think Ethan and Lex are the final two, who goes first between KimJ and Teresa is in question, but with Teresa on the master manipulator list I would guess KimJ goes first. I along with everyone else have been wrong before, but right now this is how I see it going.
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sonrod 25 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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12-24-01, 04:15 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: conversations to the JURY" |
I don't know if Lex betrayed his alliance. But what is important is if Ethan, Tom, and MamaKim believe that Lex betrayed them. Lex has won two immunity challenges. If his alliance members believe that he has betrayed them plus feel that he might go on another immunity winning run, they might take him out the first chance they get. Lex exposed them to danger by bring Brandon on board. Tom and Ethan had doubts that they would be able to convince Theresa, Frank and Lil Kim to boot Brandon. I doubt that anyone will forget about Lex.
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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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12-26-01, 12:19 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: conversations to the JURY" |
zzz,
In your statement:
"... if Lex does not win the final IC and someone else picks him
to go to the finals(and letting Lex win only works if you are in the "Rich" position of knowing that whoever wins will take you),
you would have lots of 'splainin' to do why you took Lex to the finals rather than the "better" person.
For example, how would Ethan explain why he took Lex over Tom to the finals if they are the final 3 and Ethan wins the last TC?" Regardless of who Ethan takes with him if he wins the final IC, he would have little explaining to do. For example, let's say that Ethan is in the F2. The scenarios with one of the other candidates Lex, KimJ, KimP, and Tom: Ethan vs. Lex - This one is easy. Everyone likes Ethan. He can tell the jury that although he made an alliance with Lex, he (Ethan) deserves to win because he played honorably and didn't backstab anyone. Whatever he tell the jury, he'll garner more votes than Lex. Ethan wins. Ethan vs. KimJ - He outplayed her and brought her along because of an alliance. There may be some bad blood between MammaKim and Kelly; Tom and Lex would vote for Ethan. Ethan wins. Ethan vs. KimP - Although unlikely to happen, he outplayed her. All of OB would vote for him, as would Frank. Ethan wins. Ethan vs. Tom - As with Lex and MammaKim, Ethan states he brought Tom along because of the alliance. Tom states he's just glad to be there in the F2 and thanks Ethan for bringing him and essentially tells the jury to give Ethan the $1 million because he deserves it! Ethan wins.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-26-01, 01:40 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: conversations to the JURY" |
>Ethan vs. Tom - As
>with Lex and MammaKim, Ethan
>states he brought Tom along
>because of the alliance. Tom
>states he's just glad to
>be there in the F2
>and thanks Ethan for bringing
>him and essentially tells the
>jury to give Ethan the
>$1 million because he deserves
>it! Ethan wins. I was pretty much with you until you got to this one and this is really my point. If, as drich proposes, Tom and Ethan are suggesting to each other than Lex is a bad guy to position themselves in the final 2, it is because the both want to win. If Ethan brings Tom to the finals, Tom will not "hand him the $1 million." Tom will argue his own worth as an equal part of the alliance. They were a team. If, on the other hand, the final 3 is Tom, Ethan and Lex, Tom may feel betrayed by Ethan and argue to the jury that Ethan told Tom on numerous occassions that Lex betrayed them, but when Ethan had the chance, he took Lex to the finals over Tom. If Tom is really bothered by this and is pursuasive to the jury, it could give the game to Lex over Ethan. That is the danger in Ethan arguing to Tom that Lex does not deserve to win if Ethan plans to take Lex to the finals. On the other hand, if Ethan never suggested to Tom that Lex betrayed them, Ethan would be justified in taking Lex because there would be no real basis for Tom to argue he deserved to be taken over Lex.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-26-01, 01:48 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: conversations to the JURY" |
I hate to argue with such a fine analysis, but if we look to the previous Survivor games we can find two factors came into play at the end which both Richard Hatch and Tina Wesson shared in common: first, both had been more in control of the game (particularly after the merge) more than any of the other players; second, both handled themselves at the final tc in front of the jury better than their counterparts, Kelly Wigglesworth and Colby Donaldson. If the players in S3 are aware of these things (which they may have some idea about even if they didn't ever watch Survivor before) then it should be apparent to them that Lex has positioned himself to win. There may be two certain votes already against him on the jury (Kelly and Frank) because of the way he's controlled the game (flying by his gut), but he has a very good chance of handling himself well in front of the jury and swaying opinions to his side. Can this be said of any of the other remaining players? Ethan is nice but has never shown himself to be persuasive, Tom is persuasive but hasn't exercised a lot of control in the second half of the game, Kim J. and Kim P. are hangers-on; Teresa, on the other hand, has been playing a strong game from a weak position (subversive control) and could easily give Lex a run for the money if they were both in the final two."If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-27-01, 01:02 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: conversations to the JURY" |
Yes, Nicole acted more like Lex. She would pretend to be everyone's friend and cry falsely. She manipulated who got voted out and tried to look like it was someone else's idea. She wouldn't admit she lied. But Will never denied he was lying and they shouldn't trust him. Big difference. Nobody felt betrayed by Will because he never promised them anything. Nicole manipulated them and they felt betrayed.
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vulcan 56 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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12-26-01, 11:18 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Did Lex Really Betray OB?" |
i agree wit this statement and also want to add they ought to be thanking lex for doing what he did and not being dum enough to jump on the bandwagon and voting brandon out thereby forcing brandon to once again jump ship, i do think this wek lex does jump ship though due to many reasons: 1. he knows hes pretty much on the outs with let because for the most part they let their emotions get the better over their logic 2.the fact fact thhat he is getting closer to kim and not trying to overcome the stupidity of tom and ethan 3. theresa voting for frank benefits lex more than it does kim due to the fact that she needed to try to overcome the brandon mistake 4. there is very little danger of him going back after his jump unlike kim 5. he seems to bee the only one truly playing the game and this would be a great move the whole pulling aside clarence and telling him he was getting voted out was to check kelly's loyalty and voting out kelly and telling her he was going to because her loyalty was at question and he already thought she had jumped ship anyway.Lex was made to be the fall guy of the alliance and realizes this now, so he needs to jump ship and give those ingrates theur comeuppance to sumn it up mamakim stays lex jumps tom goes with ethan (if he doesnt win immunity going next week. the only thing he has to worry about then is the ladies dumping him for kim but i don think that happens.
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Serendipity 525 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-27-01, 00:07 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Did Lex Really Betray OB?" |
Lex's closeness with KimJ is a figment of his gut. Right from the beginning she stated that she liked Lex and Tom, but loved Ethan. When she has news to tell (such as Teresa's propostion), she takes it to Ethan. It's just his egoism preventing him from admitting to being as much of an outsider as KimP.Clarence was the only person Lex told about being voted out. I don't understand why he gets credit for this kind of honesty. He didn't tell Diane (who says she understands and need to go, but she thought it might be Clarence); he didn't tell Jessie (because Jessie says Tom told her); he didn't tell Lindsay (in fact, he told Brandon they would be voting him out); he did not tell Kelly (he mumbled something about alliances not being what they were and gave her no voting instructions); he did not tell Brandon (he told Brandon they would be voting out Frank according to Brandon on the Insider clips); and he did not tell Frank. I wonder why he told Clarence. It probably made him feel omniscient and all-powerful. As far as not jumping on the Brandon bandwagon, what difference does this make? Brandon was voted out; he had no chance to jump ship. But I do think you're right that if anyone is a turncoat, it will be Lex. He's so enamored with the authenticity of Teresa that I can easily see him going over to vote with her - especially since he is still unaware that she cast the vote for him, not Kelly.
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vulcan 56 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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12-27-01, 08:48 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Did Lex Really Betray OB?" |
he did have a chance to jump ship without any fear of retaliation. as i said before he told clarence more to test kelly's loyaltys than anything i never gave him credit for honesty just the way he has played the game so far.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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