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"Official PTTE Thread"
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Original message

weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

12-14-01, 04:59 PM (EST)
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"Official PTTE Thread"
LAST EDITED ON 12-21-01 AT 10:07 AM (EST)


Ok, here are the basics:
For those of you who aren't familiar with the PTTE concept, this thread is where you finally get to share your Picks To The End. Basically, this is for bragging rights. This year it's not as easy to post because we've got too many people whose names start with the same letter, so here's a good system:

Lex=L
Tom=T
Teresa=TB (for TBird. I just liked it better than TC)
Kim J=KJ
Kim P=KP
Frank=F
Ethan=E

RULES

1. Read these rules before posting! Yeah, I am talking to you, mister.

2. Reply only to this post! You have been such good girls and boys during the weekly threads, so why not continue the love?

3. Subject line should include your picks in the following format:
X/X/X/X/X/X/X (duh, substitute your picks for the X’s).

Ok, still confused? If you think Lex is going in Ep. 10, Tom in Ep. 11, Kim P. in Ep. 12, Kim J. in Ep. 13, Teresa in Ep. 14, Frank is the last bootee, and Ethan is the winner, your picks would look like this:
L/T/KP/KJ/TB/F/E

4. If you want us to worship you in the end, post your reasoning in the message box. If you don’t have any reasoning, or have the world’s crappiest reasoning (Tom’s has a lucky boil so he will win), don’t bother posting anything in the message.

5. So you guessed one wrong, now what? After some consideration, I've decided the easiest thing for me is for you to reply to YOUR original picks message with your new picks in the subject line. If this thread overflows, I will just have to start a new one. Anyway, You then get added back in the pool, but we won’t worship you quite as much if you end up winning.

6. If the message gets buried, I will bump it. I said I, not you, not you, nor you. Webbies, I of course bow down in service to you, and therefore you will be the exceptions to the rule.

Every week, I will tediously go through the list and compile the correct posters. I will then post an update to all. The winner in the end gets the proud honor of their temporary fame. Maybe you can go have a beer with Shakes and discussed what the once famous do when their 10 minutes is up Ahh, I love the Clown!

Good luck!

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 KP/T/KJ/F/T/L/E Naked 12-14-01 1
   TB,KP,KJ,T,L,E Naked 12-21-01 64
       RE: TB,KJ,T,L,E Naked 12-28-01 92
 L/TB/T/KP/KJ/F/E TheWanderer 12-14-01 2
   UPDATE: TB/T/KP/L/KJ/E TheWanderer 12-25-01 74
       RE: UPDATE: TB/KP/L/T/KJ/E TheWanderer 12-27-01 82
           RE: UPDATE: TB/L/T/KJ/E TheWanderer 12-28-01 91
 L/KP/E/KJ/TB/F/T MikeD 12-14-01 3
 kp/tb/f/t/kj/l/e rudyismy daddy 12-14-01 4
 F/TB/KP/L/T/KJ/E Sexy Spearchucker 12-14-01 5
 L/KP/E/KJ/TB/F/T tribephyl 12-15-01 6
   update TB/KP/L/KJ/T/E tribephyl 12-23-01 68
 F / TB / KP / T / KJ / L / E katethegreat 12-15-01 7
   TB / L / KJ / E / T katethegreat 01-03-02 114
 KP/F/TB/L/KJ/T/E KLicK 12-15-01 8
   RE: L/TB/KP/KJ/T/E KLicK 12-21-01 61
       3rd Try: TB/KJ/E/L/T KLicK 01-02-02 100
 F/TB/KP/KJ/E/L/T bergdogg 12-15-01 9
   TB/KJ/E/L/T bergdogg 12-29-01 94
 L/F/E/T/KP/KJ/TB SnoopMK 12-15-01 10
   F/TB/KP/L/T/KJ/E ivoryElephant 12-15-01 11
       RE: TB/KP/L/T/KJ/E ivoryElephant 12-21-01 62
 KP/F/KJ/L/T/TB/E Mercury 12-15-01 12
   update: KP/KJ/L/T/TB/E Mercury 12-23-01 70
       3rd try: KJ/T/L/E Mercury 01-03-02 115
 F/TB/L/KP/T/KJ/E BaquaR13 12-15-01 13
 KP/T/TB/L/KJ/E/F Elwood 12-15-01 14
 KP/F/L/T/TB/KJ/E Kokoro 12-15-01 15
 L/KP/KJ/T/TB/F/E coolbeans56 12-16-01 16
 KP/TB/F/T/E/L/KJ mavsfan 12-16-01 17
 KP/L/F/T/E/KJ/TB Survivor Maniac 12-16-01 18
   Updated: T/E/TB/KP/KJ/L Survivor Maniac 12-22-01 67
       Updated: TB/KJ/T/E/L Survivor Maniac 12-28-01 93
 L/T/TB/KJ/KP/F/E final four= Ki... NorthOfBoston 12-17-01 19
   L/KP/MK/TB/T/E NorthOfBoston 12-24-01 73
 KP/L/F/T/E/KJ speedster22 12-17-01 20
   OOPS! KP/L/F/T/TB/E/KJ speedster22 12-17-01 21
 KP/F/TC/KJ/T/L/E MC_Hampster 12-17-01 22
 KP / F / TB / L / T / KJ / E Bebo 12-17-01 23
   RE: KP / TB / L / T / KJ / E Bebo 12-21-01 59
 KP/TB/F/T/KJ/L/E Lancerdude74 12-17-01 24
   Updated: T/E/KP/TB/KJ/L Lancerdude74 12-21-01 60
       Updated: L/TB/T/E/MK Lancerdude74 12-28-01 88
 L/KP/E/KJ/TB/F/T Amily 12-17-01 25
   L/MK/TB/E/T Amily 12-31-01 95
 KP/TB/F/T/KJ/L/E lionsroar 12-17-01 26
   TB/KP/T/KJ/L/E lionsroar 12-21-01 58
       TB/T/KJ/L/E lionsroar 01-02-02 101
 F-TB-KP-L-T-KJ-E Tatina 12-18-01 27
 F/KP/T/KJ/TB/L/E drich61 12-18-01 28
   RE: Kp/E/Kj/TB/T/L/F gemstone 12-18-01 29
 KP/F/TB/T/KJ/L/E zzz 12-19-01 30
   RE: KP/TB/T/KJ/L/E zzz 12-27-01 81
 KP/TB/F/L/KJ/E/T girlb4amirror 12-19-01 31
   TB/KP/L/KJ/E/T girlb4amirror 12-21-01 63
 KP / F / E / KJ / TB / L / T Tsunami 12-19-01 32
   2nd Try: KP / TB / L / KJ / T / E Tsunami 12-27-01 86
 KP/F/L/TB/T/KJ/E AyaK 12-19-01 33
   A second try: KP/L/T/TB/KJ/E AyaK 12-21-01 65
       I want to cheat! AyaK 12-27-01 87
 KP / F / L / T / TB / KJ / E Krautboy 12-19-01 34
 TB/F/KP/KJ/T/L/E MDSkinner 12-20-01 35
   TB/KP/KJ/T/E/L MDSkinner 12-26-01 76
 KP/F/L/TB/T/KJ/E dabo 12-20-01 36
   Retry: L/TB/T/KJ/KP/E dabo 12-26-01 78
       Reretry: KJ/TB/E/L/T dabo 01-02-02 103
 KP/F/L/T/TB/KJ/E Outfrontgirl 12-20-01 37
   F/KP/L/T/TB/KJ/E Outfrontgirl 12-28-01 89
       F/KP/TB/T/KJ/L/E Outfrontgirl 01-03-02 107
 L/T/KJ/F/KP/E/TB mighty 12-20-01 38
   Oh well ... TB/KP/L/E/KJ/T mighty 12-22-01 66
 KP/L/F/E/KJ/T/TB alleyb 12-20-01 39
   Adjusted--F/L/KP/E/MK/T/TB alleyb 12-27-01 83
 KP/F/L/T/TB/KJ/E paper 12-20-01 40
 E/L/TB/KJ/KP/F/T (Baloo wins) janisella 12-20-01 41
   REVISED: TB/KJ/L/T/E janisella 12-31-01 96
 KP/F/L/TB/KJ/T/E Pinky and the Brain 12-20-01 42
 KP/F/TB/E/KJ/T/L munson 12-20-01 43
 KP/F/L/TB/T/KJ/E weltek 12-20-01 44
   L/KP/T/TB/KJ/E weltek 12-26-01 77
 F/KP/TB/L/KJ/T/E NikC 12-20-01 45
 KP/F/TB/T/KJ/L/E Mumbo Jumbo 12-20-01 46
   TB/KJ/T/L/E Mumbo Jumbo 01-01-02 98
 KP/L/TB/F/KJ/E/T Rhain1970 12-20-01 47
 KP/L/TB/F/T/KJ/E jayseae 12-20-01 48
   TB/L/T/KJ/E jayseae 01-03-02 113
 L/E/KJ/F/T/KP/TB JohnMc 12-20-01 49
   revised - F/KP/TB/MK/L/E/T JohnMc 01-03-02 108
 KP-F-L-T-KJ-TB-E PepeLePew13 12-20-01 50
 KP/F/E/TB/KJ/L/T sleeeve 12-20-01 51
 F / TB / KP / KJ / E / L / T bondt007 12-20-01 52
   Update: F / KP / TB / KJ / E / L / ... bondt007 01-03-02 110
 KP/F/L/T/TB/KJ/E travelingbetty 12-20-01 53
 L/KP/MK/E/BT/F/T anotherkim 12-20-01 54
 L/TB/KP/T/KJ/E TechNoir 12-20-01 55
   RE: L/TB/T/KJ/E TechNoir 12-31-01 97
 F/TB/KP/KJ/L/T/E LilNik8 12-20-01 56
 News Flash on Revoting weltek 12-21-01 57
 L/KP/T/MK/TB/E scorpio 12-23-01 69
 T / KP / L / TB / KJ / E macamrox 12-23-01 71
   REVISED: T / L / TB / KJ / E macamrox 01-02-02 105
 KP/KJ/L/TB/T/E landruajm 12-23-01 72
 KP/TB/KJ/T/L/E volmel 12-26-01 79
 t/e/kj/kp/tb/l vulcan 12-26-01 80
 L/E/KJ/T/KP/TB JohnMc 12-27-01 84
 L/KP/TB/T/KJ/E SurvivorBlows 12-27-01 85
   TB/L/T/KJ/E - revised SurvivorBlows 01-03-02 111
 L/TB/T/KJ/E mookiemeister 12-28-01 90
 T/KJ/TB/L/E Loree 01-01-02 99
 TB-L-T-KJ-E Tatina 01-02-02 102
 RE: Official PTTE Thread strone 01-02-02 104
 TB/L/T/KJ/E IceCat 01-02-02 106
 TB/L/T/KJ/Ethan wins shakes the clown 01-03-02 109
 L/TB/KJ/E/T Dicque Knows 01-03-02 112
 T/E/KJ/L IslandFever 01-03-02 116

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Messages in this topic

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"

12-14-01, 05:36 PM (EST)
Click to EMail Naked Click to send private message to Naked Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
1. "KP/T/KJ/F/T/L/E"
Samburu had its chance this week, and slipped up. I do think that the relationship that Frank and Tom had will go a long way though. Hense the Frank Final 4 pick. Also, when it comes down to it. The person you want solid in your 2 man alliance is someone that everyone else doesn't like.
Spoiler info

Lex - (in the hospital in America) even if he was recieving treatment for disentary, he could go to TC for jury duty for 2 hours a day if treatments started in Africa.

Tom - Weight loss. I think that he has lost some weight already, but not a shocking amount that was described by neighbors. Also neighbors where convinced that he was final 4.

Frank - In S1, the most fixed sounding interview had almost everyone booted rooting for Sean. He made the final 5, and I have heard the roots for Frank this time and think this means he goes far, but doesn't win.

Ethan - NO SPOILERS WHATSOEVER Which leads me to believe that this is the ultimate spoiler and he WINS !!!

Other than that, this is really just guess work....
Naked

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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"

12-21-01, 05:08 PM (EST)
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64. "TB,KP,KJ,T,L,E"
Ok,
My Frank in the final four pick was wrong, and the KimP boot didn't happen. Boran still has controll of the game though. This is the Pagong show prediction. See ya next week with my next revision...
Naked
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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"

12-28-01, 06:10 PM (EST)
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92. "RE: TB,KJ,T,L,E"
I just missed the boot order this week, my logic was OK.
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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"

12-14-01, 05:45 PM (EST)
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2. "L/TB/T/KP/KJ/F/E"
- An OB wins the Ep.10 IC - Lex goes
- T-bird can no longer fly under the radar and gets pagonged
- Tom voted out either in a tie-breaker, or Frank wins IC
- KP too cute and therefore a threat in the F4
- KJ encourages Ethan to select Frank, knowing Ethan can win against Frank
- Queen Brandon calls Frank a snake and Ethan a saint.
- Ethan wins
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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
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12-25-01, 01:40 AM (EST)
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74. "UPDATE: TB/T/KP/L/KJ/E"
LAST EDITED ON 12-27-01 AT 11:25 AM (EST)

Updated to reflect my incorrect assumption of Frank staying longer. I think T-bird's attempt at a female alliance fails and barring immunity, she's gone. If somehow she wins IC, then Tom may be the goner.

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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
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12-27-01, 11:30 AM (EST)
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82. "RE: UPDATE: TB/KP/L/T/KJ/E"
At least until after tonight's episode!
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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"

12-28-01, 04:12 PM (EST)
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91. "RE: UPDATE: TB/L/T/KJ/E"
Boy... is my record shot to hell!!

Barring immunity, Teresa goes next. If she wins the IC, then Lex is toast.

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MikeD 344 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"

12-14-01, 09:58 PM (EST)
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3. "L/KP/E/KJ/TB/F/T"
i think teresa, frank and tom are going to band together.
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rudyismy daddy 17 desperate attention whore postings
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12-14-01, 10:51 PM (EST)
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4. "kp/tb/f/t/kj/l/e"
Get rid of likeable OS, then canabalize the likeable ones in your tribe.
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Sexy Spearchucker 22 desperate attention whore postings
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12-14-01, 11:21 PM (EST)
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5. "F/TB/KP/L/T/KJ/E"
The Boran alliance stays strong and votes off Samburu from biggest to least IC threats.

Lex's antics get him canned. I believe KJ & E have the strongest bond, we just haven't seen it.

The jury gives it overwhelmingly to Ethan.

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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-01, 03:13 AM (EST)
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6. "L/KP/E/KJ/TB/F/T"
EP.10..Lex spanked for schemeing
EP.11..KP ousted for lack of alliance
EP.12..E ousted after being big IC threat
EP.13..Hard pick but whichever man wins IC keeps his respective woman for F3 then throws her out next to keep a man opposite him for jury vote.
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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12-23-01, 02:09 AM (EST)
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68. "update TB/KP/L/KJ/T/E"
I hope that it plays out a little more exciting than this. But I've been wrong more often than not...so. But this sounds logical.
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katethegreat 207 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-01, 08:57 AM (EST)
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7. "F / TB / KP / T / KJ / L / E"
The Old Boran boot the old Samburu's one by one, having regained the upper hand. They then pick off their own members, the "real" core alliance being Ethan and Lex, although Kim J thinks it's Ethan and her! Lex can't get enough jury votes - Ethan wins.
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katethegreat 207 desperate attention whore postings
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01-03-02, 06:38 PM (EST)
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114. " TB / L / KJ / E / T"
Same theory - slight revision re: order of Kim P and Theresa going, still believe in overall pagonging. However, have moved Lex from second to fourth, think Tom is a lot stronger than expected, may win it all!!
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KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-01, 03:06 PM (EST)
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8. "KP/F/TB/L/KJ/T/E"
KP: no alliance; least time with Ethan
F: more irritating than TB
TB: no immunity, no final 4
L: payback
KJ: Tom wins the quiz -- surprise!
T: Ke, Br, L
E: KP, F, Te, B, KJ
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KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 02:10 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: L/TB/KP/KJ/T/E"
Try, try, again
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KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings
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01-02-02, 05:35 AM (EST)
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100. "3rd Try: TB/KJ/E/L/T"
Why? I don't know.
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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-01, 03:22 PM (EST)
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9. "F/TB/KP/KJ/E/L/T"
Frank seems to be going next, and I think that Kim Powers will win an immunity which gains her another week, so T-Bird takes her spot.

Now with only Old Boran left, Big Tom goes on to win the rest of the immunities, and Kim J gets cannibilized for being too likeable. Then Tom, with the final 3 vote, takes out Ethan so he can get "LEADER" Lex in the final 2, where Big Tom should get a 7-0 or possibly a 6-1 vote.

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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12-29-01, 02:00 PM (EST)
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94. "TB/KJ/E/L/T"
Same logic!!! Wrong order!! Teresa saved herself for another week. If she wins immunity, it will go KJ/TB/E/L/T.
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SnoopMK 5 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-01, 04:26 PM (EST)
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10. "L/F/E/T/KP/KJ/TB"
Call me silly if you will, but I'm starting to put a lot of weight into the "nickname spoiler" idea, so I have Tom, both Kims and T as Final four. I also think that "We Are Family" (E10 Title) might have something to do with the women banding together, so this is what I came up with in terms of a logical order keeping those ideas in mind. I think T-bird is likely to pull this one out, out of an "all-Tina" final 2.

SnoopMK

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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-01, 05:31 PM (EST)
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11. "F/TB/KP/L/T/KJ/E"

"What a twisted web we weave when at first we practice to deceive"

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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 02:18 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: TB/KP/L/T/KJ/E"

Wooo Hooo I am on a roll and TB is gone next.. or maybe lex?.. nah
say goodbye to teresa


"What a twisted web we weave when at first we practice to deceive"

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Mercury 13 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-01, 05:46 PM (EST)
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12. "KP/F/KJ/L/T/TB/E"
Hey, I'm new to these boards and it was really nice to find some intelligent conversations and predictions. I thought I'd join in, though I have the feeling I'll be editing this every week. I couldn't even predict Brandon would be gone last week!

Kim P: Without Brandon her ties to the OS are weak, and it's possible that Frank could convince his new buddy Tom to get OB to oust lil Kim instead of himself or Teresa.

Frank: Unfortunately, I see that safety only lasting to the next TC, where Lex could convince the others that Frank is more of a threat than Teresa.

Kim J and Lex: If Lex wins immunity, and I think he could pull it off again, then Kim goes first, if not, then he's gone. I think OB will see themselves at a numerical advantage and take that chance to get rid of him, or on the other hand, Kim J, when they realize she's just dead weight.

My reasoning behind these final three is that according to Kelly, she didn't find out about Teresa's vote for Lex until just before she left Africa, which could mean that TB was never on the jury. Or, she just felt she could wait another few days until the final TC was over. Plus the whole rumor of Tom having lost a lot of weight could mean he makes it pretty far.

Tom: I had a tough time trying to figure out who the F2 would be from here. If the final challenge is one of physical endurance I could easily see Teresa beating both the men. If it's mental, Ethan would stand a good chance too. I can see TB picking Ethan, since they seem to have bonded more, and Ethan picking Tom, because of their alliance. But I'm going to assume TB will win for now, because there's a past history of M/F final two.

So I see the final votes going like this:

Teresa: Brandon, Frank, Kim P
Ethan: Tom, Lex, Kim J, Kelly

Though I think Lex, Kim J and Kelly might feel resentment for Ethan having been part of their bootings, and Brandon might feel more inclined to vote for Ethan instead, I think it would be boringly predictable along original tribal lines, making Ethan the winner of Survivor Africa.

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Mercury 13 desperate attention whore postings
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12-23-01, 06:18 PM (EST)
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70. "update: KP/KJ/L/T/TB/E"
I messed up in thinking 'lil Kim would go before Frank, but I'll keep the rest the same for now.
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Mercury 13 desperate attention whore postings
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01-03-02, 09:39 PM (EST)
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115. "3rd try: KJ/T/L/E"
I'm just not good at this! But it's obvious Mama Kim's the next to go. Despite what MB tries to make us think, I think the boys alliance is strong, and there's no way Kim J will win the immunity challenge.

My predictions:
Ep 13-1: Lex wins immunity, Kim J gets the boot
Ep 13-2: Lex wins immunity, kicks off Tom

The jury favours Ethan, much to Lex's great surprise.

Votes:
Ethan: Kim J, Tom, Teresa, Kelly
Lex: Brandon, Frank, Kim P

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BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-01, 07:22 PM (EST)
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13. "F/TB/L/KP/T/KJ/E"
I HOPE I AM WRONG AND KIM P WINS!!!!!!!!!
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Elwood 93 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-01, 10:37 PM (EST)
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14. "KP/T/TB/L/KJ/E/F"
Hey all, long time since I've posted (sometime near the end of the Aussie show), but I've been reading here since S3 has started. Can say for sure that this is a much more unpredictable season than before, and I LOVE that. Also am not in any "pick 'em" competitions, so in a way its been more enjoyable.

But here's how I see the end, LOGICALLY, which of course means there's no chance in hell of what I think will happen happening. And I don't have Insider, so I'm only going on what I've seen and heard about from the Insider.

Mama Kim: Her allies seem to be Ethan, Tom and then Lex. Her original alliance. She'll most likely stick with them (in that order).

Ethan: Seems to be tightest with Mama Kim and then Tom. Might be worried about Lex, but who knows. Haven't really seen anything to say much about his relationships with Frank, Lil Kim and TBird. Probably will stick to his original group (in that order).

Tom: Seems tight with Ethan. Trusts Frank. Has a crush on TBird. Is bonding with Lil Kim. Might mistrust Lex a bit. No idea on Mama Kim. He's the wildcard of the moment, but not disliked by anyone, so not in the same boat as Brandon was.

Lex: His gut has him possibly on the outside of Boran. Doesn't seem to have any bonds at all with Samburu. Looks like an obvious 4th place person.

Frank: Is solid with TBird. Bonding with Tom. Probably dislikes Lex some. Maybe indifferent with Mama Kim. Probably mistrustful of Lil Kim. No idea about Ethan. Best bet looks to be TBird and Tom.

TBird: Solid with Frank. Likely semi-trusted by Lil Kim. Lex trusts her. Tom and her have an amicable relationship. No idea how she stands with Ethan and Mama Kim.

Lil Kim: Only possible allies seem to be Tom and TBird. She voted against Lex (and he knows). She also appears to be disliked by no one, but who's sure about that. Probably Frank has some bad feelings towards her, but maybe it was just the other Mall Rats. Seems like the most likely outsider at this point.

So, if *I* were there and still going strong in the final 7, what I would do is look for that *solid* partner and then someone to be the 3rd member. Also, if I were close to being voted out, I'd do my best to get a 4th in my corner.

Mama Kim seems easiest to predict. Ethan then Tom then Lex. She should aim for having a final 3 of her, Ethan and Tom, then assume Ethan would rid Tom if he won IC, and vice versa. As far as I can tell that's all she really can do. And would likely lose a vote against either.

Ethan seems basically best doing the same thing. Get to final 3 with Mama and Tom, win IC and get rid of Tom. If Mama Kim was as dull as she appears, I'd say he'd win that vote. Probably would lose to Tom, though.

Tom. Tom. He seems to have a lot of options. I'm sure he could jump in with Frank and TBird if things go bad for Old Boran. But he's looking solid with Mama Kim and Ethan. But maybe he knows he'd be 'third' with either pair. That leaves Lex and Kim P. Tom looks to be the true wildcard and the next vote will probably determine what he does. He could also be seen as a sure winner over almost anyone and become a target himself. He'd beat Frank and Lex for sure in a vote. Maybe Ethan, too. And probably Mama Kim. If he gets to final 3 he pretty much needs the last immunity.

Lex seems kinda screwed right now. His best bet is to hope to get taken to final 2 and finish 2nd. Don't really see him having any shot at winning at this point. Likely he'll stick with his orginals and hope to win the 4 person IC, or get taken along for 2nd. Could possibly only beat out Frank in the final vote, and I doubt that.

Frank all of a sudden looks to be in a decent position. He might be tighter than we know with Tom, and Kim P could be his 'fourth'. About the only shot he has of winning is to go up against Lex, and I can't see that playing itself out. Same could be said for TBird's chances.

Kim P really is the outsider, and I think it wouldn't be a *bad* position to be in. She's got no solid allies (that we know of), so she's not too much of a threat, and is a vote that could be sought after. She could maybe hook up with a 2 person team (Frank/TBird) and be 3rd, hoping to win the last IC.

So it looks (to me) that the alliances stack up like this (in order of 'solidness'):

1. Ethan-Mama Kim-Tom-Lex
2. Frank-TBird-Tom-Kim P

If Frank were smart (and sometimes I get the impression he is), I'd say he should get Tom to help him oust Kim P followed by Lex and Ethan. Mama Kim would then go easily, then it becomes an immunity factor. Lex likely finishes 4th or 2nd. Frank finishes 3rd or 2nd. Winner is Tom or Teresa.

But I have a feeling that Tom doesn't last that long. What I think will happen is that Ethan and Mama Kim (and Lex) will see Tom getting closer with Frank and Co, and Tom goes relatively soon. Kim P is the ultimate outsider, and I think L/E/MK see this. They've got to stick together and keep Tom on their side, and I think they do, so Kim P goes first. After this is when I think Tom's looseness goes against him. Lex wins another needed immunity and so it comes down to Frank or Tom, and Tom goes. Now it's 3-2 OB/OS. Here's where I think Frank shows up, finally, and wins an IC. So they *must* vote of TBird.

So now you're at Ethan, Lex, Frank, Mama Kim. IC comes and the winner is Ethan. He's got to decide what to do next. He knows the final IC is the one that matters most. He *needs* to win it so he can pick who goes with him to the vote. His biggest competitor in ICs looks to be Lex, so at this point he finally ousts him. Going into the final IC, you have Ethan, Frank and Mama Kim. Mama has ZERO chance to win this, and I think Ethan wins another. His best chance to win is against Frank, so he votes of his Mama (I think he really DID come to win this thing).

So now the vote - Ethan vs Frank. Jury consists of Lex, Mama Kim, Tom, Brandon, Lil Kim, TBird and Kelly. I have a very strange feeling that Frank would win that vote, probably by a good majority, like 5-2 or even 6-1.

So that's what I'm going with. The more I think about it, the more I realize it's not 100% logical, but the players don't play locigally anyway. And if I'm right...WOW! After Episode 1 I thought Ethan would win it, but I'm not sure he CAN win, depending on how things shake out. And I actually do like Frank, though I don't agree with everything he seems to agree with. He seems like a nice guy and trustworthy, and given the circumstances of the game, I think, if you were friends with him, he'd be the best friend of any of the survivors. Of course actually getting to be friends with him seems like it'd be awfully tough.

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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-01, 11:11 PM (EST)
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15. "KP/F/L/T/TB/KJ/E"
Psst....weltek, editing only works within 24 hours (unless it's changed in the past couple months ;)

I hope it isn't so predictable as while KJ and E are perfectly nice people, they have a screen presence of about .2

----------------------------------------

"Sometimes your shallowness is so thorough, it's almost like depth." - Daria

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coolbeans56 33 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-01, 00:08 AM (EST)
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16. "L/KP/KJ/T/TB/F/E"
Here is my resoning, I hope this works...

LEX: I see lex finally chews the big one, when Tom goes over with Frank and T-Bird and Lil'Kim.

KIM P: lil'Kim will lose out because she is not in any alliance, her only hop eis to approach Moma Kim and Ethan becaus they lost Tom and Lex, but it will not happen.

KIM J: Because the Tom/Frank/Teresa Alliance is strong, Kim J is booted off because Ethan is on immunity

TOM: Ethan get immunity... again. Surprise 3-1... Ethan can;t trust Tom, his line is up.

TERESA: Ethan wins final immunity, and takes Frank because he is the least likeable of the two.

Frank: Teresa ( I think she tell everyone she was the one who voted lex in the CB Boot),Tom (close ally; got him to final 4) , Kelly (because of Boran betrayal)

Ethan: Brandon (Hates Frank), Lex (faithful servant), Lil' Kim (hates frank), Moma Kim (trusted ally)

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12-16-01, 02:07 AM (EST)
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17. "KP/TB/F/T/E/L/KJ"
The Borans can't stay mad at Lex he part of the "Boran Family" and comes back into the fold. So Boran unites against a Sambura.

Kelly said it was fun at loser lodge as more players show up. I think Kelly is more likely to have fun with KP than with Frank or Teresa, so KP goes next.

Boran still hangs together and has a choice of Teresa or Frank.
Lex fears TB forming an alliance with with KJ and thinks he can control Frank thru Tom. So Teresa is sent packing. (Too the earlier Frank leaves the greater the tension at loser lodge between Frank and Brandon and the less likely Kelly would be to call it fun).

Boran hang together and vote off Frank.

Original Boran is all that's left with a Lex/Tom alliance and a KJ/Ethan alliance. Ethan tells KJ lets get rid of Tom, and which ever one of us wins the final immunity challenge can then face Lex with the Jury and guarantee ourselves the $1,000,000. Tom voted out due to prior votes.

KJ wins the "Know Your Fellow Survivor" immunity challenge and selects Lex as her final 2 partner Ethan's out.

The jury gives KJ the $1,000,000.

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12-16-01, 10:50 PM (EST)
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18. "KP/L/F/T/E/KJ/TB"
KIMBERLY: She has no alliances and if she loses immunity, she is gone in Ep 10. Teresa will confront her and Kim will give her blessing, happy to have made it as far as she did.

LEX: Frank wins immunity and Tom votes with Frank and Teresa to get rid of him. There is a tie and Lex goes because of previous votes.

FRANK: If he doesn't win immunity he is gone. Tom, Ethan and Mama Kim vote him off.

Big TOM: T-Bird wins immunity, Ethan and Mama Kim vote Big Tom off.

ETHAN: T-Bird wins immunity again and votes Ethan off.

MAMA KIM: Lex, Tom and Ethan vote for her, she comes in second.

T-BIRD: Wins by 1 vote! Kelly, Kimberly, Brandon and Frank vote for her.

(Kelly has the deciding vote, just like Sue voted against Kelly and Jerri voted against Colby.)

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12-22-01, 09:59 PM (EST)
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67. "Updated: T/E/TB/KP/KJ/L"
Another Scenario:
1. TB,KP,KJ vote out Tom (T,L,E vote Teresa).
2. TB,KP,KJ vote out Ethan.
3. Lex wins immunity Lex & KJ vote TB, TB & KP vote KJ and TB goes as she has the most votes against her.
4. Lex wins immunity again and chooses KJ so KP goes.
5. Lex wins. (Kelly, Brandon, Tom and Ethan vote Lex. KimP, Teresa & Frank vote KimJ.)
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12-28-01, 11:36 PM (EST)
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93. "Updated: TB/KJ/T/E/L"
1. Tbird goes as she is not part of the alliance.
2. KimJ goes next as originally planned by the alliance.
3. Tom is next as Lex wins immunity and picks Ethan.
4. Lex wins. Brandon, KimP, Teresa & Tom vote Lex. Kelly, KimJ and Frank vote Ethan.
(These were my original picks, but I got caught up in the All Female Alliance, which was a wash-out!)
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NorthOfBoston 158 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-01, 00:53 AM (EST)
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19. "L/T/TB/KJ/KP/F/E final four= Kim(s) Ethan & Frank"
as of 12/17/01: L/E/T/TB/KJ/KP/F/E
Of course, the rest of the line depends on the first letter bootee (L). If Lex stays in episode 10, I will have to edit.

This is based on something that I thought might be a spoiler, but since it disappeared a day after I saw it, I thought it pointless to bring it up on this forum. The day after the merge episode, I logged onto CBS.com. There was a new link about the new MojoMaji (spelling?) tribe. The faces of all 16 survivors were strewn across the top of the screen; those who had already been booted out were featured with their tribe's buff in a square below their headshots (i.e., Carl had a red square, Diane had a yellow square). Most of those who had made it to the merge had a green square below their headshots. Most, but not all; five: Kim J, Kim P, Ethan, Clarence, and I think Frank (didn't write it down, but I'm sure of the first four), had NO colored square at all. Of course Clarence had been booted that episode, so I thought it was just a fluke. After all, I thought at the time, how could Kim Pee make it so far? Plus, wasn't Lex the leader? How could he be out of the final four? Then episodes 8 and 9 played out and I started to wish I had written down those five names.

Most likely, it was just a problem with the website upload. However, if this final four turns out to be correct, it's a CBS gufu similar to the S1 "red x" spoiler.

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NorthOfBoston 158 desperate attention whore postings
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12-24-01, 06:51 PM (EST)
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73. "L/KP/MK/TB/T/E"
OKAY! So could I have BEEN any more wrong? NOT POSSIBLE!

SO, as Lex won immunity last week, here is my revised pick-

I think the final three is Ethan, Tom, and Teresa, (a friendly threesome, unlike the Colby-Keith-Tina group; I might even go as far as to say that Ethan wins immunity in the final three and chooses Tom in an appearingly loyal sign of eternal friendship, knowing deep inside that Tom probably offended quite a few people and thus would help him win the whole million).

I think Teresa or Tom wins immunity this time, and Lex is booted in a 3-3 tie. He is booted because he has the most pre-episode TC votes; I suspect there is a tie between Kim P and Lex. Next is Kim P because Teresa, being the sly one, joins forces with Tom and Ethan. MamaKim has realized her mistake too late and although Ethan refuses to vote for her, she loses against Teresa in a 2-2 tie because she has that one pre-episode TC vote. Or, she loses against Tom in a 3-1 vote because Ethan chooses to save his backwoods buddy over her.

Of course, if Lex wins immunity THIS time (AGAIN, YAWN), this entire configuration is wrong, if for no other reason that Lex's paranoia affects others' judgement in bizarre ways. Also, I will be asleep since the game will have gotten too repetitive.
But somehow, I think it's not his necklace this week. . .

As much as I like Ethan, it would be the best TC EVER if he goes this week or next since he is the hands-down favorite to win the game everywhere.

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speedster22 11 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-01, 05:47 AM (EST)
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20. "KP/L/F/T/E/KJ"
Why? lot's reasons...

1) I think KimP is outta there next week barring an immunity win (which is definity possible but not probable). Kimp no longer has a tight alliance with anyone. Ethan and Co know that she is an immunity threat in physical challenges and her alliance in outnumbered 4-3. Lex has told his boran alliance that he no longer wants to be the one to choose the bootee so I'm sure ethan and co will choose kimp before anyone else. It's not that anyone will want to vote for kimp - I think they will most likely hate to vote for her, but they will do it. They're not going to be as stupid as to let samburu have an advantage AGAIN (then again, I could be wrong and this could turn into the stupidest SURVIVOR group EVER).

2) I think LEX is out next because the Boran tribe has leeway now that it's 4-2. They don't trust lex any more and as with kimp. Barring immunity, he's outta there. I think tom and ethan trust t and frank more that they trust lex. The Boran crew will do what ogakor did last year. Vote off the people they don't like or trust from their own tribe only when they know they are in control. Atleast that would be the smart thing to do.

3) Frank next just cause he's a bigger immunity threat. Even though tom and frank have this alliance thing going on, tom is WAY more aligned with KJ and Ethan. If he pulls a brandon and votes the other way, I don't think ethan and kj would be impressed. Tom doesn't seem like someone who would change alliances, even if it would be to his benefit. The immunity card is so powerful now that it's final 7. Kelly and Colby both got as far as they did because of immunity. Hopefully no one this time around will dominate like they did. I don't think anyone will considering who we have, though I think ethan and T will have their fair share of immunity wins.

4) For this vote I'm going to go out of logical order and say Tom, just because there HAS to be atleast ONE time when the group can't vote for who they want to vote for or should vote for. I think T will win immunity and ethan and kj will be forced to vote for tom. Of course, tom and t would team up but I think that at this point tom will still have more votes than anyone else so he'll still lose in a tiebreaker. So I think ethan and kij are more tightly aligned that tom and either of the two. The biggest reason? both kj and ethan have been together since the beginning. Tom was a part of new samburu, which gave ethan and kj a chance to bond more. AND there will inevitably be more NEW samburu in the jury (brandon, kelly, lex, kimp) so I think ethan and kj will consider him as a threat if he get's to final two. Plus, he's happy go lucky so people like him and they'll probably like how he played the game (excepte maybe brandon).

5) This time T is out. Again, unless she wins immunity. Ethan and kj are an alliance and that will be obvious by now. It's as simple as that.

6) I think kj will win. she stuck with her alliance, but she also spent time to get to know the other survivors whereas ethan has been much more detached and less friendly (kelly said he was very reserved). The only way ethan would win would be if he wins lots of immunity and reward challenges and can argue like colby did that he did well with the game that way. Here's the vote schema... kelly, lex and frank voting for ethan. T, kimp, tom and brandon voting for kj.

Right now, I think it's pretty logical to think that kelly and lex would vote for ethan. Kelly because she feels betrayed by kj, lex because he was closer to ethan than kj the whole time. Frank because it looked like ethan just stood there in the previews while kj told frank to stop. But that's kind of flimsy evidence so frank is just a maybe. I think T would vote for kj cause she's a woman, they are closer in age I'm sure they relate better. I think kimp will also vote for kj cause they relate better and kimp will vote for whoever she likes better for the final two - not who she thinks played the game best (that's why she voted brandon out - she doesn't like it when people think strategically, etc. She'd rather be their friend). With Tom and brandon, I honestly don't know who they would vote for. The show didn't really show whether tom was closer to ethan or kj and the same with brandon. They could go either way.

Why am I choosing kj then? For the hell of it. I noticed a lot of people picked ethan to win so I think I'd be different!! So yeah, I think this list is logical. I've tried taking this at every angle and trying to think strategically and stuff but then brandon got voted out last week for being too strategic too early and so I think now that being logical will probably be the best idea. I honestly don't think my list will hold up but oh well, it's always fun speculating.

laterz
speedie

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speedster22 11 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-01, 05:53 AM (EST)
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21. "OOPS! KP/L/F/T/TB/E/KJ"
OOPS! I missed adding theresa there! so this is my actual ftte list. ignore my original heading! It's too early in the morning and I'm too tired!!
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MC_Hampster 105 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-01, 09:35 AM (EST)
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22. "KP/F/TC/KJ/T/L/E"
LAST EDITED ON 12-17-01 AT 01:32 PM (EST)

Samburu lost it's chance last week, so they are the next three to go. Frank goes before Teresa because she's more likeable and bonded more with Boran. Kim J. goes first in Boran because of the age factor (too likeable). Lex & Ethan are in final 2 alliance. Kelly's "thinks she knows who will win" comment makes it seem to me that Lex is final 2.

Edited to add: TC should be TB I guess according to the rules

-MC

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12-17-01, 11:10 AM (EST)
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23. "KP / F / TB / L / T / KJ / E"
KP - Gotten her face time last episode. Since Frank is set up as a target (on SI particularly), it won't be him, so she'll be gone.

F - Get rid of an immunity threat.

TB - Likeable, not part of OB, gotta go.

L - Has done his duty. Ethan would much rather go against Lex in a final 2, but Lex is a much bigger immunity threat than the other 2. Ethan's biggest risk to getting into the final two is losing the final immunity challenge and having to rely on someone else picking him to go with (which would hand Ethan the mil and be suicide, IMHO). Therefore, they get rid of Lex.

T - Ethan wins final immunity. He will have a much easier time winning against KJ with the jury. After all, he was a much more useful member of the tribe than she. Gotta get rid of Tom. And I think Ethan and KJ have been the Colby/Tina alliance of this version...and that it's been hidden from us.

KJ - Don't see her getting a whole lot of votes against Ethan. Kelly won't vote for her. Maybe Lex will vote for her since Ethan voted him out at Final 4. I see her losing to Ethan, and for once it won't be a close vote.

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12-21-01, 01:50 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: KP / TB / L / T / KJ / E"
I thought Kim P and Frank would be the next two to go, just got them in the wrong order.
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Lancerdude74 165 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-01, 12:10 PM (EST)
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24. "KP/TB/F/T/KJ/L/E"
n/m
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12-21-01, 02:01 PM (EST)
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60. "Updated: T/E/KP/TB/KJ/L"
n/m
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12-28-01, 02:14 AM (EST)
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88. "Updated: L/TB/T/E/MK"
One more try...
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Amily 88 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-01, 12:55 PM (EST)
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25. "L/KP/E/KJ/TB/F/T"
These are my thoughts - not based on logic - just my gut (and we know how reliable our guts can be, right Lex?)

L - I think Lex goes this week because his craziness is getting on everyone's nerves - better get rid of this loose cannon and quick!!!

KP - Just because she really doesn't have any true alliance

E - way too much of a threat

KJ - now that Ethan is gone, she has no one left

TB - who wants to bring the "closet" manipulator with them - the surviving survivors think she is too likeable

F - too bad Frank - I was rooting for you!

T - well I'll be, shucks - he done it!

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Amily 88 desperate attention whore postings
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12-31-01, 07:38 PM (EST)
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95. "L/MK/TB/E/T"
LAST EDITED ON 12-31-01 AT 07:41 PM (EST)

Just hoping

Opps - MK should be KJ

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12-17-01, 12:56 PM (EST)
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26. "KP/TB/F/T/KJ/L/E"
Just going on gut and logic......
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12-21-01, 10:36 AM (EST)
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58. "TB/KP/T/KJ/L/E"
PLEASE mamakim don't switch sides!!
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01-02-02, 09:15 AM (EST)
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101. "TB/T/KJ/L/E"
try this again
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12-18-01, 08:05 AM (EST)
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27. "F-TB-KP-L-T-KJ-E"
Ep. 10 F - might seem too obvious, but this is what my GUT (probably heavily manipulated by MB) tells me.
Ep. 11 TB - too much of a thread, plus KP might win the immunity (something requiring balance and speed ?).
Ep. 12 KP - well, not twice in a row.

Final four - Lex, Tom, KJ and E.

Here much depends on the two final ICs. I think one will be "fallen camarades", and that it'll be the second last IC, like on SI. I can see just about anyone of the remaining 4 winning it, but not Lex. I personally think that Ethan might win this, having been mainly listening this far. If not, can see the much speculated (and to me very possible) E-KJ alliance in work anyhow. With Tom and KJ left to compete with him I guess he would win just about ANY immunity. At the final vote between Ethan and MamaKim I could see Ethan winning by a landslide of votes.

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12-18-01, 06:54 PM (EST)
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28. "F/KP/T/KJ/TB/L/E"
Frank and KimP are next in the jury to satisfy Kelly's friends, followed by another friend Tom. Teresa makes the manipulator list by lasting longer than both Tom and KimJ, both from Boran. The final vote does not sound as if it is a close 4-3 vote, so having the popular Ethan against the unpopular Lex fills that bill.
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12-18-01, 10:19 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Kp/E/Kj/TB/T/L/F"
I just think this would be the most interesting F3. Imagine these 3 alone together with all the pressure of the final TC a few hours away. I think it would be a very entertaining show unlike Survivor 2 with Colby, Tina and Keith.

The only problem is how does Teresa get booted in the F4 unless Frank votes against her? Another twist perhaps. Lex wins immunity but Frank\Tom promised each other they would not vote for each other at TC until the F3 and Tom and Lex have the same agreement. Teresa would understand Frank voting for her over Tom, more than Tom would so he may still receive her jury vote in the F2.

Kim P has no one and blew her chance when she didn't take Brandon back. Ethan is a threat in challenges and the F2. Kim J is only there because of luck and the swap so she doesn't deserve to go any further, IMO.

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12-19-01, 12:52 PM (EST)
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30. "KP/F/TB/T/KJ/L/E"
Of course this is a lot of guessing. It seems that the pagonging should begin now. Old Boran has no more reasons to turn on themselves. So I think they succeed in picking off OS--not really sure the order, but I have made a guess. Once it gets down to the final four, I think Tom will be the first to go because I think he is the most fringe member of the alliance. I am not sure why I think this, but I just do. In part it is because I think that Ethan wants to go against Lex in the finals and has a final 2 pact with him. I think KimJ will go along with Ethan to get rid of Tom. Once it is down to final pick, I think either Ethan or Lex would pick each other over KimJ. That leaves Ethan to beat Lex in the finals.

I am probably all wrong--but whey should that surprise anyone?

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12-27-01, 11:04 AM (EST)
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81. "RE: KP/TB/T/KJ/L/E"
Same basic reasons, I just removed F from the equation. I do not think KimJ (or Lex) will switch (as much as watching that would be fun). TB, the schemer, really should be the one voted off, but I am just being stubborn and think she survives somehow (maybe immunity as others have suggested).
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12-19-01, 01:21 PM (EST)
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31. "KP/TB/F/L/KJ/E/T"
Kim P is without an alliance so she goes first. Teresa goes next because Tom likes Frank better and Frank seems to do more work around the camp. Frank is the last of the Samburu but is unable to win immunity (but wouldn't be awesome if he did) so he goes. I think Kim J, Ethan, and Tom have already gotten tired of Lex trying to be the leader so even though it might be smarter to try to take him to the final two, they go ahead and boot him. Ethan or Tom wins the next immunity challenge and boot Mama Kim. Ethan seems to be the favorite among a lot of people so I'm going to go with the surprise pick and say Tom wins the entire thing. I could be entirely wrong but this is my guess.
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12-21-01, 02:19 PM (EST)
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63. "TB/KP/L/KJ/E/T"
second try...
Teresa is more of a threat since she's trying to get MamaKim to switch sides so she goes first.
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12-19-01, 09:44 PM (EST)
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32. "KP / F / E / KJ / TB / L / T"
KP - no alliances; OB back together

F - Kelly's lodge buddy

E - immunity threat - my guess is E/T vote TB, L/KJ/TB vote E (hence TB "master manipulator")

KJ - TB wins immunity; TB decides she'd rather challenge the guys in the final 3 and votes with them (she assumes she could win immunity against Tom and bring Lex to finals) - I admit this one's a stretch

TB - don't think she goes farther or Kelly would have given away too much w/ mm quote

L - who wouldn't want to go to jury with him

T - hands down in jury vote

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12-27-01, 06:59 PM (EST)
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86. "2nd Try: KP / TB / L / KJ / T / E"
Just because I'm too confused to think of anything else
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12-19-01, 10:14 PM (EST)
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33. "KP/F/L/TB/T/KJ/E"
OK, so here's my thought...

The next two boots are obvious (thanks, Kelly!): Kim Powers and Frank. That leaves us 3 men, 2 women for the final five (and 4 Old Boran, 1 Old Samburu) -- but only one young person, Ethan. Remember, though, that there are only three more nights to spend in camp after the E12 TC.

I think the Old Boran will turn on Lex at that point. No one has trusted him since he trusted Brandon over Kelly, and Ethan probably figures that he and Tom can handle the "lifting" for the last days. So ... Lex goes, in a unanimous vote, and then sulks. It doesn't matter that Lex is the ideal final two opponent.

T-bird is now the outsider. But Tom is the outsider within Old Boran. T-bird gets booted unless she wins immunity. The IC is "Fallen Comrades." T-bird might win, and thus Tom would go next. However, I think Ethan wins, because he wants to impress everyone with how much he actually learned about them. Thus, T-bird goes.

The final three competition will be something combining ritual with challenge. Again, I think Ethan will win, and boot Tom.

The end vote will be a replay of S1 and S2. One old, one young. One male, one female. Both from the same tribe. Only this time, the young person wins. Maybe unanimously.

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12-21-01, 06:08 PM (EST)
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65. "A second try: KP/L/T/TB/KJ/E"
OK, let's try this again.

6th place: Kim P goes, for the same reasons that she should have already gone. This finally crushes the PMS Alliance dreams, but read on...

5th place: Lex gets the boot! Tom and Mama Kim decide that they'd rather keep Teresa around than Lex. "Truth Be Told" refers to how much Lex has gotten on everyone's nerves. Lex reacts like they shot his dog.

4th place: Tom. After seeing Ethan's performance last night, I think T-bird wins "Fallen Comrades." Ethan clearly learned his lesson about being a challenge hog; he has been on cruise control in the challenges. Tom and Ethan vote for Mama Kim; Mama Kim and T-bird vote for Tom; Tom loses on the tiebreak.

3rd place: Teresa. Ethan wins this challenge and finally boots the last Samburu, leaving two of the Old Boran Alliance in the finals.

2nd place: Kim J. She gets at most one vote, from Teresa.

1st place: Ethan. "Jesus has risen and he walks amongst us and he plays Survivor." - Brandon. 'Nuff said.

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12-27-01, 09:22 PM (EST)
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87. "I want to cheat!"
Originally I posted a "third try" here (with Lex going before Kim P), but I decided to cheat and delete it. Yes, I admit it, I'm a lowlife cheater. Makes me perfect for Survivor, doesn't it?
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12-19-01, 11:23 PM (EST)
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34. "KP / F / L / T / TB / KJ / E"
The hidden alliance is the key. Last Season it was Colby and Tina, this season it's Ethan and KimJ. Between the two of them, Ethan is the easy winner. Not very exciting, that's why MB lumped it all together again into one episode, because the final vote is obvious...

The next two to go also seem obvious because of Kelly's friends list...KimP this week, Frank next...

The middle game is where the immunities will be a big factor, but I anyone other than Lex wins he's gone. He lost his leadership position last week and will pay for it once Boran has a firm grip on the Final 3...

Final 4 will be determined by Immunity and Teresa has a good chance at beating out Tom...Tom goes.

Final 3, Ethan wins immunity and chooses to take KimJ rather than a Samburu. Teresa could get Samburu votes and Ethan remains true to his secret alliance...played like the ultimate survivor should...doesn't seem like an exciting finish, but MB can't control the outcome, only edit the way he gets us there...

Krautboy

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12-20-01, 00:27 AM (EST)
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35. "TB/F/KP/KJ/T/L/E"
I will probably be out of the running here after this week, but what the hell, it is worth the shot.
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12-26-01, 04:05 PM (EST)
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76. "TB/KP/KJ/T/E/L"
The only thing I changed here was removing Frank, and switching Lex and Ethan around. It is all together possible that the person that I have chosen to win is going to be ousted this week, but what the hell. For some reason, I just don't see Lex going since I think everyone will want to go against him in the final 2, and I think he could get the Richard treatment, and end up winning if that does happen.
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12-20-01, 01:08 AM (EST)
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36. "KP/F/L/TB/T/KJ/E"
LAST EDITED ON 12-20-01 AT 01:15 AM (EST)

KP: Her story is done, her only hope to win is to win immunity from here on out, not gonna happen.

F: Kelly likes him and is rooting for him (except she didn't put that into context), she and he hang out while Brandon and Kim P. repair their relationship.

L: He's playing a strategy guaranteed to lose no matter what, even his original tribe decide enough is enough and take him out for his own sake.

TB: Last of her kind, played the angles all the way to the end, but not understanding the bond between Ethan and Kim J. costs her now (hardest pick for me because TB and T are interchangeable at this point, but the partnership of E and KJ stays true to OB tribal identity one final time).

T: Only chance to advance to final two was to win immunity, he knew it and he blew it somehow, KJ makes him the last to join the jury.

KJ: Game dynamics come back to haunt her, she lost Kelly's vote by following Lex and that is what decides it in the end.

E: Played a shrewd game, employed his skills without lording it over anyone (very tough call, though, as KJ could turn jury in her favor, but I think Ethan is smart enough to know he can't pull the stoic routine like Colby did in the end if he expects to win).

Just a note to anyone who's interested: In S1 and S2 the winner was the one who did the best before the jury, what happened before during the game was relevant to only a few of the votes in either case; Wigglesworth really didn't sell herself all that well (though Greg's number game was a tossup, his way of giving MB the bird) while Donaldson basically took the defiant I'm-here-you're-not position thinking that alone justified his winning the game (unless we assume he was smart enough to know he was throwing it into Tina's lap, but that Colby was nowhere near as sharp as Michael/shakes so it is debatable). I think Ethan is smart enough in the end to talk himself up and show he played a clean, fair game throughout, whereas Kim J. has made a couple of mistakes that she cannot answer for.

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12-26-01, 07:30 PM (EST)
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78. "Retry: L/TB/T/KJ/KP/E"
Trying a different tack, order by who is most likely to least likely to wear out their welcome. KP managed to hit a new story, the UTR kid is now under everybody's wings, plus she and Ethan may realize they need to work together if one of the younger players is to win (yeah, I know, shades of GXA).
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01-02-02, 10:58 AM (EST)
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103. "Reretry: KJ/TB/E/L/T"
Going out on a limb this time (might as well, right) by saying that the player most in control of the game actually does get to the final two but doesn't win because he absolutely ruined his chances with the jury. I originally postulated Lex's strategy of being the one everyone wanted to be sitting next to in the final two and as well that no one would want him on the jury, that was on a Basher thresd and I still think it's a joke, but this is turning out to be the Survivor where logic has been thrown out with the bath water. Alternately, perhaps this will be the Survivor to prove MB a genius for having said in one of his books that one day the "slacker" will be the one to win the game and perpetual anchor Mama Kim will take home a cool mil.

"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

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12-20-01, 01:36 AM (EST)
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37. "KP/F/L/T/TB/KJ/E"
Kim Powers
Fun with Brandon and Kelly at the Lodge and per all that stuff I put on the vote thread.

Frank
Kelly gets QT to appreciate the softer side of Frank.

Lex
Boran can now afford to join Tbird the Snake in a way that sends the message to the Uberlord... but Ethan likely abstains and keeps his promise, and the vote goes 3-2 Lex v. Tbird.
Lex's gut grumbles with dysentery and gets partial but not complete treatment before he goes home.
Kelly spends time with Frank to show Lex he's less charming than Frank.

Tom alternate Tbird
Fulfills sleeeve's Final 4 spoiler and weight loss.
Tbird wins IC, so a Boran has to go and no hard feelings at this point. You gotta do what you gotta do when you're between a crack and a hard one (per Tom). TB and Tom vote Ethan, but Ethan and KimJ vote Tom, who loses due to prior votes.

Alternately, TB doesn't win IC and gets voted out 3-1.

Tbird alt Tom
Tbird loses immunity despite her endurance powers because Ethan is NOT Clarence and he is there to WIN.
Alt Tom loses IC and the Ethan/KJ alliance gets honored either way.
Tom is too popular...

KimJ
Does not deserve to win. Got CARRIED over the finish line by a strong guy. Dumped the water first day. Lost numerous challenges for her tribe. Backstabbed Kelly, who thought she was her best ally. Does anyone vote for Mama? Maybe Teresa and Frank will throw her two mercy votes as an honorary OFA, maybe not.

Ethan
Lex, Brandon, Tom, KimP, and Kelly for sure... Possible shut out.
Story arc rewrites S2 so that the deserving Son figure wins.


With every mistake, we must surely be learning--George Harrison

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12-28-01, 04:36 AM (EST)
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89. "F/KP/L/T/TB/KJ/E"
For the moment, I'm sticking with the original PTTE logic, except I got the order switched for Frank and Kim Powers.

I didn't have time to redo this today before the show, but I voted correctly for Kim Powers on the vote thread so it's on the record, FWIW.

AyaK, *I* want to CHEAT the most!

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01-03-02, 01:44 AM (EST)
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107. "F/KP/TB/T/KJ/L/E"
Revision prior to Ep 12:

1)Teresa doesn't win IC and last Samburu exits.
2)Kim J wins Fallen Comrades and upsets the L-E-T Final 3, so the cannibalization has to start early and Tom is too popular to allow him to stay.
3) Lex or Ethan win final endurance IC, and honor their original bond. May the best man win is the motto. Kim J is snuffed at last.
4) Lex vs. Ethan. Need I say more? Possibly, because:
Kelly, Kim J, and Kim P vote Ethan. But Brandon likes Lex, and
Teresa may give Lex that respect vote, as may Frank throw one to the other alpha male.

Making Tom the swing vote, and we know how Tom likes to use his votes as reminders that he forgives but he doesn't forget. Translation, he doesn't forgive Lex... judging by that publicity shot and he and Ethan are still the best of buddies.


With every mistake, we must surely be learning--George Harrison

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12-20-01, 03:04 AM (EST)
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38. "L/T/KJ/F/KP/E/TB"
Just a guess.
E10: Lex is done.
E11: Tom gets burned. (E/KJ recruit KP)
E12: Mama pays a price for going after TB instead of Frank. (KP can't bring herself to vote TB)
E13: Frank loses the F4 TC tie w/KP due to votes.
E14: KP HAS to get this far. (She would have tattled on Brandon by now if she had been in juryland.)

In the end, TB takes E to F2 annoyed with KP betrayal of OS.

TB wins big with votes from Kelly, Brandon, Tom, Frank and possibly Lex. The Kims vote Ethan.

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12-22-01, 08:30 PM (EST)
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66. "Oh well ... TB/KP/L/E/KJ/T"
LAST EDITED ON 12-22-01 AT 08:39 PM (EST)

E11&12: Basic pagongin' goin' on.
E13: Lex loses in a tie with KJ
E14: Ethan gets betrayed; both KJ and T know they can't beat him in front of jury; E doesn't survive.

Tom wins in a landslide. Only Brandon votes for KJ.

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12-20-01, 03:10 AM (EST)
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39. "KP/L/F/E/KJ/T/TB"
A shot in the dark on the final 4 order, but I believe that KimP, Lex and Frank will be the next three bootees (in some order).

Ethan next because he is such an immunity threat, yet has seemed pretty peripheral in strategy (my impression of him on the show and from the SI clips is that he is a competitor but not a real strategist). He'll be targeted if he loses Immunity (I don't think his bonds to Tom and KimJ are really that strong--more of an alliance of convenience).

KimJ is an enigma and MB may be hiding her, but even Tina was only truly MIA during the first few episodes. KimJ is almost invisible so far.

Tom and Teresa both are much more dynamic in the show. Brandon's comment about Tom not having any real strategy makes me wonder if Tom did make it to the Final 2, where Brandon would have the chance to assess Tom's lack of strategy (leading him to vote for whoever Tom was up against).

Somehow I think if Teresa gets to the Final 3, she'll win Immunity. Once in the Final 2, she'll reveal how hard it was to keep quiet about voting for Lex and will win everyone's respect for pulling it off (and for manuvering her way to the end of the game), thus giving her the final prize. (This based mainly on Kelly's comments that she didn't find out that Teresa was the one who voted for Lex until right before she left Africa).

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12-27-01, 12:21 PM (EST)
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83. "Adjusted--F/L/KP/E/MK/T/TB"
I'm sticking with my original gut, but switching Frank & KimP's positions (I should have given more weight to Kelly's Frank comments). I think Lex will be gone tonight, as he has already been winning ICs too much, and the opportunity to vote him off in a tie can only happen now.
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12-20-01, 06:04 AM (EST)
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40. "KP/F/L/T/TB/KJ/E"
LAST EDITED ON 12-20-01 AT 06:09 AM (EST)

Kelly said that the jurors had a festive time while on the jury and Kim P seems like she would fit into that festive atmosphere. Frank may win immunity.

Tom can no longer protect Frank and Lex doesn't get along with him. He is also viewed as an immunity threat. Kelly also indicates that Frank and her became close which would require Frank to be on the jury for awhile, assuming this isn't a red herring put out there by Kelly.

Tom and Lex have a close alliance together and Kim J and Teresa have developed a close alliance. Ethan is closely aligned with Lex and Kim J. It gets to the point where the remaining members have to split and Ethan is the man in the middle. He chooses to go with Kim J and Teresa because he believes Lex intends to take Tom to the final two but believes Kim J will take him to the final two. Kelly also said she talked to Lex on the phone the night she got kicked out. This would seem to indicate that they had a little time to work things out.

Tom is the odd man out after Lex gets voted out.

Ethan and Kim J have an alliance to the final two, so Teresa is the odd person out. Kelly seemed to slip in one of her interviews saying she didn't find out who voted for Lex until her last night in Africa, which would make sense if Teresa is in the game for a long time. Of course she might have purposely kept quiet while on the jury to indirectly influence the voting.

Frank and Teresa vote for Kim J.

Kelly, Brandon, Kim P, Lex, and Tom vote for Ethan.

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12-20-01, 08:39 AM (EST)
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41. "E/L/TB/KJ/KP/F/T (Baloo wins)"
it's not like these people have shown any sense of logic at all.
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12-31-01, 08:58 PM (EST)
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96. "REVISED: TB/KJ/L/T/E "
The Jewish mother in me (who can only hope her sons turn out half as nice as Ethan) wants to see Ethan take it and even though all logic says the others should have gotten rid of him a long time ago, they didn't.
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12-20-01, 09:10 AM (EST)
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42. "KP/F/L/TB/KJ/T/E"
Just my gut feeling. No logic factored into this b/c logic has been thrown out the window by this group.
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12-20-01, 11:41 AM (EST)
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43. "KP/F/TB/E/KJ/T/L"
Wanted to get it posted before tonights episode but don't have time right now to explain how the hell Lex wins this thing.

Too much Ethan support around here. If there's anything we've learned from the first two go arounds, it's that Colleen/Elisabeth do not win SURVIVOR and that's Ethan, IMO. He goes the first time he doesn't win immunity after the Samburu are gone...

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12-20-01, 11:58 AM (EST)
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44. "KP/F/L/TB/T/KJ/E"
KP-Tom made no pact with her that we can see, lots of face time last week, struggling.

F-Time for Frank and Kelly to get to know eachother at the Lodge. Kim & Brandon "heal". Kim & Kelly know it will be uncomfortable for Frank as the only old guy at the lodge and Brandon being a jerk to him & are they in turn are nice to him.

L-His number is up. Tom and Teresa made a small pact and everyone is fed up with Lex's issues.

TB-Tom could only carry her so far. His old alliances are more solid.

T-Ethan or Kim win final immunity, each has been loyal to eachother & they decide that is good enough reason to take eachother along. Tom has been finicky and he was too well liked by most jury members. Ethan and Kim are both "background" characters that didn't effect many opinions.

KJ-I don't think Kelly likes her, nor does Lex (I don't think Lex really wanted her in the alliance). Just a feeling I have.

Two problems I have with my theory:
MB said something to the effect that there will be a likeable & not-s-likeable duo in the end. Then again, I don't put much stock in what he says.

Ethan has been too obvious of a pick. Perhaps there was just no other way to edit him. Certainly he will get more face time as the episodes continue, but really, is he capable of doing any wrong?

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12-26-01, 04:17 PM (EST)
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77. "L/KP/T/TB/KJ/E"
I'll give this one last try...

Lex's number is up. Old Boran is up one player, so now is a safe time to vote him out.

Kim P is the next logical choice to keep Old Boran numbers up.

Tom looses an IC to Teresa. Ethan doesn't want the competition in the final 2.

Kim J is "where she doesn't deserve to be" and then looses to Ethan.

I continue to love Ethan not only for his brains, looks, charm, sensitivity, and now his cool mil.

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12-20-01, 12:01 PM (EST)
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45. "F/KP/TB/L/KJ/T/E"
Tom has promised Lex he can persuade KJ/E to join them in booting Frank tonight, and it is done. KP and TB are then booted in that order. KJ/T/E join to boot Lex, then KJ goes. Final two are Tom and Ethan, jury votes Ethan. End of story. No surprises, very boring and predictable. Hope I am wrong.
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12-20-01, 02:00 PM (EST)
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46. "KP/F/TB/T/KJ/L/E"
1)Lil Kim because of all of the Kelly spoiling evidence.

2)Frank goes next due to bonding w/Kelly at lodge time.

3)OB will stick together so TB is third. Makes no sense really but neither has a lot of their other decisions.

4)Spoiler says Tom makes it to four. No further.

5)KJ. Lex & Ethan will stick together and she will not win immunity.

6) Lex spoiler says he makes it to final two. Loses to Ethan, in a landslide. I'm guessing 7-0.

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01-01-02, 02:35 PM (EST)
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98. "TB/KJ/T/L/E"
OB will stick together so TB is history. Makes no sense really but neither has a lot of their other decisions.

Switching Tom and KJ. I think LET will stick together to final three. Plus spoiler says Tom makes it to
four.

I'm guessing Lex wins immunity at final tribal council or Ethan and Tom agree among themselves that whoever wins the final immunity takes whomever they have the better chance in the finals against. As opposed to a Colby/Tina arrangement to the final two.

Lex spoiler says he makes it to final two. Loses to Ethan, in a landslide. I'm guessing 7-0. I just hope Ethan does not take Tom into the final two since they are still close. Tom would have a very good chance at winning the whole thing if he makes it to the finals against anybody.


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12-20-01, 02:49 PM (EST)
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47. "KP/L/TB/F/KJ/E/T"


Go BIG TOM!!


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12-20-01, 06:06 PM (EST)
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48. "KP/L/TB/F/T/KJ/E"
I think the tribe doesn't like Lex much, but I think they are trying to see a slight bit ahead and realize they need to whittle some more before making that move. Once KimP is gone (my pick this week), even though she wouldn't vote with Lex, you've got Ethan-KimJ-Tom in control.

No way will Frank-Lex-T-Bird be able to wrest control out of that, not with Lex having so many votes against him. So next week, Lex goes, then E/KJ/T are in there.

The final four should be interesting, even if it's only to see who is going to stab who first. I think it'll see Frank go - Ethan/MammaKim will vote Frank, even if Tom doesn't. And votes should still be on Ethan's side at that point, so Frank is a goner.

Then the winner of the IC in the final 3 gets to decide who wins. Ethan wins the IC, dumps Tom - too good of a job mingling with the troops. MammaKim's absence through most of the game will work to Ethan's advantage. Nice guy, but he's no Colby and will take the chance to walk all over the finals. Game Over.

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01-03-02, 04:55 PM (EST)
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113. "TB/L/T/KJ/E"
I missed Frank and KimP (and the first two weeks - some picker, eh?). Switching Lex to Frank's spot, the remaining players are still where I picked them.
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12-20-01, 06:48 PM (EST)
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49. "L/E/KJ/F/T/KP/TB"
Lex still stands a shot of getting booted tonight, especially since Sammybobo has been getting all the attention. He'd be an easy target of Sammybobo and all they need is Tom. He could get E and MK to vote w/him pretty easily. This would set up a Tom a pretty smooth path to the final 4.

This sets up a pretty unclear situation if Lex gets booted. With 3 OB and 3 OS left, and with the only remaining tribe members with votes against them being Tom with 3 and Frank with 3, something other than tribal lines will come into play. The tribal lines are too unclear with cross tribal alliances. At this point, Ethan would have to win immunity in order keep from getting voted off since he's the biggest threat. I don't see EPM allowing another Kelly/Colby run, so Ethan is gone, and then there were 5.

Teresa will insist on Pagonging MK, so final 4 is TBird, Tom, Frank, and Kim P. Tom and TBird have the most sub alliances of the 4, so either Frank or Kim goes. Frank would have to go on prior votes.

This love triangle would be hard to split up. TBird is the IC winner of the trio, and she'd have to take Kim P to the final2 with her. She knows she can still get Tom's vote in the final because he takes the game for what it is: a game.

To summarize, here's my PTTE:

Lex
Ethan
Kim J
Frank
Tom
Kim P
TBird

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01-03-02, 11:49 AM (EST)
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108. "revised - F/KP/TB/MK/L/E/T"
Ok, I have to change my mind on this. I swear I change my mind on my picks more than I change my underwear. (btw, that is at least once a day, but it's ok since I sleep naked.)

Changed to F/KP to reflect previous bootees

TB is due to pagoning

MK is next since she's the outsider

L is booted since he's most irritating. Either E or T could win immunity, but they'll pull a Colby and take the wrong one into f2.

E hasn't really displayed much strategy, aside from lucking into the right alliance. He's a good guy, quiet, but more like a Nick but actually participates.

T deserves to win. He's a good guy, not overly cocky yet still confident. He has befriended the Sammy Bobo's as well as the Boron's, so he has a lock on most of the votes

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12-20-01, 07:03 PM (EST)
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50. "KP-F-L-T-KJ-TB-E"
This is a tough one -- the next two bootees are appearing to be a lot clearer, but after that... who knows? It all depends on how Lex and Tom are edited (pretty much everyone else too) and my opinion can easily change from here on.

However, here we go... my PTTE:

Ep.10 (Day 30) -- Kim P. goes because of Kelly's spoiler and lack of ties with anyone else left in the game after Brandi's boot.

Ep.11 (Day 33) -- Frank gets booted to satisfy Kelly's spoiler that she gets to know Frank, plus he's the last true immunity threat left from OldSamburu.

Ep.12 (Day 36) -- Lex gets turfed because the oldBorans can now afford to do without him, plus he's crazy as hell and the dysentry is going to start affecting him big time -- perhaps the others will see this and decide it's best to boot him now?

Final Ep.13 (Day 37) -- Tom goes because KimJ and Ethan have a tighter alliance with each other than with Tom and I suspect KimJ will push to keep Teresa over Tom as she sees Tom as more of a threat to herself. Either KimJ or Ethan wins the Fallen Comrades challenge here.

Final Ep.13 (Day 38) -- Kim J. loses out to Teresa as Ethan wins an endurance/agility IC. Ethan may feel that KimJ will make a better presentation to the jury than Teresa would and may perhaps let his paranoia take over once again and take a better game player but less political person with him in Teresa.

Final 2 -- Ethan wins with a 5-2 vote over Teresa as he makes a very valid and simple point that he has tried to play fair and be a good person overall while playing the game the best he could. Frank and Kim P. votes for Teresa, while Tom, Lex, KimJ, Brandon and Kelly votes for Ethan.

I fully expect to be coming back here on January 10th and laughing at my picks, wondering why I said such and such.


"It's just funny seeing people that are matched up, everyone has a partner now and everyone's happy. And boy, my camping trip just went to hell."
Frank Garrison, Dec. 13/01

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12-20-01, 07:07 PM (EST)
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51. "KP/F/E/TB/KJ/L/T"
Ep10: Kim Powers voted out, for reasons given all over this board.

Ep11: Frank meets his untimely end, when Lex finally gets his way and votes off the one no one likes. Kelly gets a chance to reconcile with him on the jury, and he reports back to Carl that Little Bit was likable, afterall.

Ep12: Ethan is allied with Kim Johnson, but Tom has become close with T-Bird, and is allied with Lex. Three beats two, and the immunity threat is eliminated when he does not pull through in the crucial challenge.

Ep13a: T-bird has outlived her usefulness, and is a threat to Lex and Tom.

Ep13b: Tom wins immunity and wisely selects Lex as his opposition in the final jury vote... bye Mama Kim

Jury: selects Tom in a 5-2 or 6-1 vote. Brandon votes for Lex.


You never know what might be up my sleeeve...

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12-20-01, 07:13 PM (EST)
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52. "F / TB / KP / KJ / E / L / T"
I'm hoping Tom is PLAYING dumb and will drag Lex to the final 2. Alternate final 3: T / L / E
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01-03-02, 03:14 PM (EST)
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110. "Update: F / KP / TB / KJ / E / L / T"
I'm just switching KP and TB, I'll leave the rest alone.
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travelingbetty 296 desperate attention whore postings
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12-20-01, 07:23 PM (EST)
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53. "KP/F/L/T/TB/KJ/E"
KimP is going this week as I voted already. Frank goes next giving Kelly four days to bond with him. The three other OB decide to get rid of the ever increasingly annoying Lex and bring down their core group to just three now with the expendable TB. MamaKim decides that the best she will do with the boys is third so she and TB join up to oust Tom, who has the most votes at that point in time. Then Ethan wins immunity and takes Kim J with him to the finals as his best chance to win the most votes. Which he does.
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12-20-01, 08:05 PM (EST)
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54. "L/KP/MK/E/BT/F/T"
A new vague theory I am tumbling around in my head---it will never happen this way, but what the hell /

Kim

If it's a mental challenge, we're screwed...
Big Tom on his partnership with Lil' Kim

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12-20-01, 09:32 PM (EST)
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55. "L/TB/KP/T/KJ/E"
Ok, I'm guessing Lex goes the very second he doesn't win immunity. Not only is he annoying, but he's won immunity too many times clearly letting everyone know he's a threat. Besides he's a slimey sack .....

Theresa is a direct competitor to MamaKim so Tom and Ethan will help protect her. And the strength she showed head to head with Clarence makes her more formidable than she appears. She'll go before L'il Kim. (Besides The Satanic One really needs to keep around a young lady who looks good in a bathing suit -- audience demographics remain a key variable here.)

Ok, now we're down to the final four, and MamaKim, Ethan, and Tom have been taking care of each other since the beginning. So assuming Ethan doesn't get stupid and start winning too much stuff the three of them need to get rid of baby Kim .... that way they've stuck to their original alliance. And all three of them have a tendency to honorable behavior, so they'll probably stick with their collective word(s).

Now it's trickier than it seems, but I always retreat to my Gender Balance theory when I have nothing else to fall back on. So assuming a woman stays, I don't see how Ethan leaves. So it's bye bye for the goat farmer.

<missing sig picture goes here>
Heh, new computers sure take a while to break in.

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12-31-01, 10:40 PM (EST)
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97. "RE: L/TB/T/KJ/E"
Ok, it's pitiful to redo your ptte ...

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LilNik8 195 desperate attention whore postings
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12-20-01, 09:37 PM (EST)
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56. "F/TB/KP/KJ/L/T/E"
I didn't register until now, so you can kinda say I cheated with Frank even though I swear I knew he was going to get voted out. I voted for him to be voted out at the Survivor Deadpool.

Anyway, here's my reasoning and I'm going to follow up with another subject.

Teresa is going to push it a little too far with that all girls alliance. Kim Johnson is a pansy and she can't vote off her precious OB alliance if Ethan doesn't chose to. MamaKim is going to go back and report Teresa's dirty deeds and TBird will get the ax.

I'm unsure if KP will vote in the alliance or with Teresa...I think she's out to save her butt and she may disown Tbird and vote with OB. It won't matter anyway because she's going to get the ax next. The other four are on the whole power trip with the OB so she's out the door.

I debated on who would be next after her...Lex or MamaKim. I just have this feeling that Lex is going to win Immunity and Ethan will have a feeling that Kim will forgive him for voting her off instead of Tom. After all, Tom has this whole "I forgive but I never forget trip" remember? Tom and Ethan will vote Kim off.

Back to the I forgive but I never forget. Ethan will win Immunity and oops...that leaves the boys left. Like I said, Tom never forgets and he has a flashback to the Brandon vote...lex gets the ax.

Ethan and Tom battle it out with Ethan finally winning the $$.

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12-21-01, 10:09 AM (EST)
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57. "News Flash on Revoting"
The rules have been modified for revoting. Reply to YOUR ORIGINAL PICKS POST with your new picks. I didn't realize you can't change the subject line when you edit your message.

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12-23-01, 01:25 PM (EST)
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69. "L/KP/T/MK/TB/E"
As much as I hate this lineup....
Lex- IC Hog they'll have to deal with this
KP - jury pick threat - never offended anyone
Big Tom - Ethan's strategy comes to the fore, MK, TB vote for BT, Ethan casts a throwaway vote to MK or TB
MamaKim - Ethan wants to be in the F2 against the master manipulator, takes TB to F2
TBird loses because Mr. Nice Guy has stacked the jury
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12-23-01, 08:27 PM (EST)
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71. "T / KP / L / TB / KJ / E"
I believe that E and KJ have a hidden alliance. My theory is that E will give KJ his blessing to join the Women's Alliance. KJ will be able to protect E and vote off L. L wins IC this week - KJ has to keep her promise to TB therefore votes off T.

L wins IC again next week; KJ panics and votes with the boys to get rid of KP.

Either E or TB win the following week's IC--now it's time for L to go.

E wins final IC and brings KJ with him.

KJ receives no votes from the jury, but is happy to have made it to 2nd place, and thrilled that buddy, E, ended up on top.

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01-02-02, 09:45 PM (EST)
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105. "REVISED: T / L / TB / KJ / E"
Kelly can't be having much "fun at the lodge." Having Tom there would be "fun." I believe Tom is going this week.
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12-23-01, 11:30 PM (EST)
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72. "KP/KJ/L/TB/T/E"
Okay, so I'm late. I stipulate that while I'd have gotten the first in the series right a couple weeks ago (Brandi), I'd have completely hosed it up from there.

I also apologize if any of my reasoning here duplicates anyone else's--I haven't most of the thread. In fact, I've only read Technoir's post, because she is, of course, my only valid reason for drawing breath and I mostly continue to do so only at her sufferance.

And of course, this post can meet no one's definition for spoiling; it's purely speculative.

1. BabyKim, because she can't win a damned thing to save her life, and she's about at the point where she needs to.

2. MamaKim, because the boys are gonna get a little touchy about this girl power thing, and because they're gonna start visualizing having to sit in front of a jury with their grandma, and they're not gonna like it. Oh, also because Lex will win another immunity at the wrong time, because God just plain hates us.

3. Lex, because his string will run out, and no one will trust Lex to take them to the final with him. Except for Tom, who just plain doan lahk Lex.

4. Theresa, because Ethan will win the final immunity, and he ain't doing that Tennessee Titans thingie.

5. Ethan will beat Tom on something like a 5-2 vote before the full jury, because he's just so damned likeable, and because Tom's boil isn't all that lucky.

Other than the fact that I never get these right, the one potential crucial flaw I see in my reasoning relates to the order in which the women will be offed.

Specifically, I think that MamaKim will sell out the girl power thing, and it's very possible--maybe even likely--that I've misjudged the effects of that. If it all blows up on the next episode, Theresa could easily be the next member of the jury. If that's the case, I think she just gets swapped in the order for MamaKim--who Ethan STILL isn't going to take to the final.

So much more than a sentient computer.

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volmel 362 desperate attention whore postings
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12-26-01, 07:38 PM (EST)
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79. "KP/TB/KJ/T/L/E"
________________________

*I* missed you the most.

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12-26-01, 11:24 PM (EST)
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80. "t/e/kj/kp/tb/l"
lex not teresa ios the master manipulator as lex jumps ship and gives the middle finger to the rest of his cronies and then wins for the master player he is
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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12-27-01, 06:54 PM (EST)
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84. "L/E/KJ/T/KP/TB"
TBird has to get MK to form the PMS alliance in order to pull this off, but if that happens then Lex is next, then Ethan. This also goes w/the final 4 having their own websites. Kim J is next to go since the only one who can really win immunity w/that bunch is TBird and Tom is too well liked. You can't take Tom with you to the finals unless you are Colby and like losing, so he's next. TBird and KimPee are F2, and TBird takes it because she actually played the game. She got Clarence to bow out in the first merge IC, she got Frank to sacrifice himself for her, and she's played a tactical game. KimP just hasn't done much to deserve a win.
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12-27-01, 06:57 PM (EST)
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85. "L/KP/TB/T/KJ/E"

...a stab in the dark.

-SB

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01-03-02, 03:15 PM (EST)
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111. "TB/L/T/KJ/E - revised"

Still keeping the same final three.
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12-28-01, 10:13 AM (EST)
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90. "L/TB/T/KJ/E"
There is a reason why MB edited the show to make Lex look like a bad guy. I think this is to show why he got kicked out before all the Old Samburus are gone. The rest of the boot order is pretty clear unless someone win an IC.
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01-01-02, 04:21 PM (EST)
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99. "T/KJ/TB/L/E"
I am finally going to pick a PTTE. I haven't been right in so long it is a good thing I waited.

I think Tom goes this week. He'll never win that Super Challenge and he is just too likeable for anyone to keep around for the final. Then I think Teresa wins the IC next week and forces Ethan and Lex to boot MamaKim. Lex is going to be in that final 2 if he makes the final 3. Both Ethan and Teresa want him beside them. Teresa won't win that IC so she will be booted because Ethan and Lex will stick together no matter which one wins the final IC. Ethan will win the vote over Lex.

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01-02-02, 09:49 AM (EST)
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102. "TB-L-T-KJ-E"
... actually I haven't changed my mind a lot on this. Should have seen that Teresa is the logical last Samburu standing, since she was obviously the smart one of the tribe.
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01-02-02, 02:12 PM (EST)
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104. "RE: Official PTTE Thread"

TB/KJ/L/T/E

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01-02-02, 10:03 PM (EST)
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106. "TB/L/T/KJ/E"
The pagonging reaches its inevitable conclusion tomorrow night...

Lex's past indescretion with Brandon comes back to haunt him...

Big Tom is the odd man out in the 'Kim and Ethan' show...

Ethan wins because he is recognized by the jury as more deserving (athleticism) and gameplay (no depicted enemies)...

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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01-03-02, 02:53 PM (EST)
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109. "TB/L/T/KJ/Ethan wins"
As for tonight, PAGONG is all that needs to be said.

Then, we finally get to meet the "secret" alliance of Colby and Tina as Ethan and Kim band together to knock out LEx and his 78 previous votes.

Next in line is big Tom obviously.

In the finals, Ethan wins out over Kim cause he basically dragged her ass through this entire game anyway...and unlike Colby, he didnt' need to screw over any of his friends along the way....should be a landslide vote in his favor.

THIS SHOW SUCKS

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112. "L/TB/KJ/E/T"
Beware of the goatman
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01-03-02, 10:39 PM (EST)
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116. "T/E/KJ/L"
Lex keeps winning immunity. KJ is the only one he can beat.
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