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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 12-14-01, 09:46 AM (EST) "Logical Choices - Ep10" Well for those keeping track at home, the Logical Choice - Ep9 was "C" (minus the Lex vote) where Brandon gets the unanimous boot from the moto maji team. At least based on what we were shown it is not completely illogical like last weeks vote choice was. Don't get me wrong there was a more strategic move to be made by the OldSamburu's (take out Tom) than to pick off one of their own now that they were back in the driver seat, but it is not a definitive "that will cost them" kind of thing as we had with Brandon last week. Also we are now able to officially and finally determine that Brandon is not a genius, and he isn't all that bright either (falling somewhere just above Lex in the old brain department). So given the following: o 7 people remaining: 4 - Boran, 3 Samburu o 2 Boran in definite and solid alliance (Ethan, MamaKim) o 2 Sambu in definite and solid alliance (Frank, Theresa) o Tom riding the fence on both alliances (will we see a handshake in the insider clips?) o Lex earning ill will from his tribe for failing to vote off Brandon o KimP without an alliance anymore? o Tie vote unlikely due to uneven numbers Based on these "givens" the following choices appear the most likely: A) Old Boran 4 - takes out an OldSamburu B) Samburu's + Tom - takes out an OldBoran C) 6-1 take down of Lex D) Lex goes insane and tossed Jeff P. into the TC fire (ok maybe not) If we assume A) then the most likely evictee is Frank. However he is only a slightly better target than either of the others, as he appears to be a marginally bigger IC threat. In reality any of the Sambu's are good targets at this point, and it will be interesting to see if Tom can save his new buddy Frank for a week or two at say the outsider KimP's expense. If we assume B) then the most likely evictee is Lex. Ethan is a strong alternate assuming he doesn't win the IC, because he is such an IC threat. If you have the opportunity and you pass to get rid of Lex... you may never get another opportunity to take him out. KimJ is safe. If we assume C) then Lex's stunt costs him and he gets summarily tossed for sucking up to the jury. Yes it could happen. Based on this Lex is the most likely to be booted (again), followed closely by any of the Samburu's, with an outside shot at an Ethan removal. Regardless Tom and MamaKim are "logically" safe. Now lets add any spoilers we might have that could be of use: Diane's friends... DONE Chat Hints/Red Herrings... comments that suggest Theresa and Lex may go far Lex being sick... if sleeeve is correct he won't leave until at least E12 Tom looses weight... he's already lost a bunch. "We are Family"... gay alliance? NO, most despised person booted? YES? Estrogen Alliance... NOT LET shown early... cracking now, will it break? Preview misdirection... points at Lex, is he safe? Face time... no one with more than Lex lately, is he gone? Handshakes... will we or won't we get confirmation that Frank and Tom shook hands? So if Lex can't go for at least 2 more episodes, and he is "featured" in the preview, he's likely the IC winner again! This will force Tom's hand and KimP is our likely evictee. All this is subject to change once the insider clips are out or new and credible spoilers are uncovered. -ICB   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Kim P versus Frank AyaK 12-14-01 1    RE: Kim P versus Frank zzz 12-14-01 3    RE: Kim P versus Frank Lisapooh 12-14-01 4    RE: Kim P versus Frank Shay 12-15-01 18  RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 weltek 12-14-01 2    RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 performanz 12-14-01 5        RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 Ritz 12-14-01 6    It's Time: PTTE Thread... Krautboy 12-14-01 8  RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 true 12-14-01 7  RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 TheWanderer 12-14-01 9    RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 I_AM_HE 12-14-01 10        RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 snoocharoo 12-14-01 11            Don't think so... AyaK 12-14-01 13  RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 fyrenice 12-14-01 12  RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 Serendipity 12-15-01 14    RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 munson 12-15-01 15  RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 munson 12-15-01 16    RE: Logical Choices - Ep10 fyrenice 12-15-01 17

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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 10:40 AM (EST) 1. "Kim P versus Frank" ICB, the main choice that I see this week is Kim P versus Frank. Tom's not a member of Old Samburu -- the point of the whole meeting between Tom and Frank was that Tom was worried that the Old Samburu would double-cross him if he voted off Brandon. Frank assured Tom that he was a man of his word, and it would have galled Frank no end to have deceitful Brandon outlast him. Plus, Little Kim was terribly hurt by Brandon and wasn't in a forgiving mood. So who goes next? Lex isn't going anywhere yet. Old Boran did just what he told them to do -- vote off Brandon if they could get the votes elsewhere. But that doesn't change the fact that it isn't to the advantage of any of the Old Boran to jump ship. They won't ... but Lex just changed position in the alliance, from leader to fourth wheel. Ethan is the key. I still wonder what Ethan said when voting to oust Kelly. Here are the arguments for booting each of the two Old Samburu who might be on the block: Frank: The loner of the group. Lex doesn't like him, but Ethan does. He's the most likely of the Old Samburu to win a challenge -- in fact, he might have won immunity this week if he hadn't been DQed (and that tells us something -- Jeffy isn't going to repeat his mistake of not enforcing the rules in the E10 challenge in S2, which enabled Colby to defeat Amber in the rope challenge, if he can help it -- who says that we don't influence the show?). And only Tom would share his political opinions among the remaining group; they would make even his friend Ethan uneasy. Main advantage: Ethan and Mama Kim trust his word, when he gives it. Main disadvantage: Not a "people person"; may be seen by Ethan as integral to a disrupting alliance (e.g., a Tom-Teresa-Frank final three pact). Kim P.: Her "outsider" status is largely a result of her two best friends (Kelly and Brandon) being booted in the last two shows. Ethan and Mama Kim don't know her as well, although she was loyal to Frank and Teresa in this vote ... and we know from Carl and Linda that the OFA likes her now. Thus, she may not be as much of an outsider as we would otherwise think. It is possible for her to win a challenge, although not as likely as it is for Frank. Lex clearly likes her better than Frank, and Tom seems to like having her around to look at (see the shower scene). Main advantages: Not as strong or aggressive a player as Frank; seems to be outgoing and gregarious; Tina ... uh, I mean Teresa, likes her. Main disadvantage: No close friends in Boran; final remaining Mall Rat. Which one to choose, which one to choose? Good luck to you all, and happy spoiling!   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-14-01, 10:55 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Kim P versus Frank" AyaK-- You may like to point out that you almost never agree with me (as you did recently), but this time I agree with you 100 percent. What I would like to add to the analysis is that logic would dictate that Lex is not calling the shots anymore--Ethan and Tom are. Tom seems to "owe" Frank for giving his word about voting out Brandon. Tom and Ethan like Frank the best of the remaining OS. Voting out KimP would be the least of a betrayal of anyone left. Thus, to me, logic dictates that OB will decide to vote out KimP next. That is why I am leaning toward thinking that it is Frank that gets the boot next. These people never seem to think very logically. P.S. Given their illogical ways--it would also not shock me if Lex got a unanimous boot. They are that crazy.   Top

Lisapooh 12664 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 10:55 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Kim P versus Frank" I agree AyaK. Was it just me or did Kim P seem almost desperate to win the immunity challenge? She was in tears and yelling "come on burn burn" She really thought she needed timmunity. She doesn't strike me as particularly paranoid either. Makes me wonder if something happened that we haven't seen to make her think she had to have it. We also saw much more of her this time and with a spunky little personality too. Right now, she looks like a strong boot contender for next week   Top

Shay 9 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 12-15-01, 06:05 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Kim P versus Frank" Frank's a goner. I believe that there was a spoiler about Brandon's sexuality directly affecting the game. I would not make that statement based on what we have seen on the show up to this point. So, I think Frank's tirade from the preview is directed toward Brandon/gays and it leads to him getting voted off (parallels with the cow comment from S1). It would have been a toss up among the 3 OS but this is the event that makes everyone want Frank gone sooner rather than later. I just don't believe that OB will give OS another chance by voting out Lex. All the editing to suggest a Tom/Lex split is just a red herring because voting off an OS is too predictable and MB needs to make it look like there is some other possibility. MamaKim and LilKim were obviously upset with Frank's comments, Lex doesn't like him anyway, and Ethan can get rid of another threat. 'We Are Family' is a wink to gay pride (Frank got his comeuppance) but the bigger meaning is that now the women are in charge at 3-3 with only the guys having prior votes. They finally realized that the men are on a power trip and have NO intention of taking any of them to the final 3. (Of course that last part is wishful thinking since the survivors never seem to be able to strategize on the fly.) Finally, the part about one survivor giving a selfless blessing to another. T tells Frank he is the target and he gives her his blessing to vote along with the others to save herself. I can see him being stoic like that.   Top

weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 10:43 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" LAST EDITED ON 12-14-01 AT 11:07 AM (EST) Great summation. I wish choice D) would come through. Now that would be some great tv! I agree with most of what was said, but I do not, at any time soon, see Ethan going. This group does not seem to be bent on getting rid of immunity threats. Ethan is loved by all. They all personally have someone they'd like to see gone, and Ethan isn't on anyone's list it seems. Teresa wants Lex gone Frank....Lex Kim P....Lex Lex...Frank Tom...Frank or Lex or Kim P. Ethan...Frank or Lex or Kim P. Kim P...of course, same as Ethan It's got to be either Lex or Frank next. Consequences of 6-1 vote against Lex: Tom is safe to final 4 with Frank & Teresa. Kim P. or Ethan likely along for the ride. I have a feeling that Frank & Teresa may not be that chummy with Kim J. They seem to like Ethan better and Teresa really likes Kim P. Frank will go along with this. A vote for Lex puts Kim J. in a precarious situation. She isn't good at winning immunity challenges, therefore hope will be her only friend. She doesn't seem to be coniving enough to strategize on her own. Ep 11 vote would likely be Frank, Teresa, Kim P. against Kim J. if they can swing another vote, but that is sketchy as to Tom's loyalty to F/T/KP in that situation. Their only safe bet would be to turn on Tom due to prior votes. In defense, KJ/E/T would have to vote Frank because they think he has prior votes, just not sure how many. Given this, old Boran would be stupid to get rid of Lex this vote. Lex isn't going to be pissed they went against his idea here, he let it be known that he wouldn't vote for Brandon and if they had to, fine. I think this weeks vote will have to go to an old Samburu. That is the only way old Boran is assured they will make it to the end. Of course, immunity will likely mess all of it up at that point. I don't think Old Boran will be too picky about which old Samburu goes at this point. I forsee this: Ep 11: Old Samburu goes. Likely Frank, barring immunity. Otherwise, Kim P. Ep 12: Lex goes barring immunity. Old Samburu goes otherwise. Ep 13: Old Samburu goes From there on out, immunity is such a big factor & it's not necessary to get into it now. Edited to add (since LisaP, Aya and I all posted at the same time I didn't get to read their posts)that in rethinking it, Kim P. may be the better choice, as voting against her wouldn't offend anyone...who knows what they irrational people think.   Top

performanz 46 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-14-01, 12:53 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" I am in agreement with this thread as a whole. There appears to be only 3 likely poeple booted off next week. Frank, Lex or Kim P. But I think we need better reasoning to narrow it down further. My feeling right now is that Tom holds the secret. If he votes for Frank next week then it is Boran final 4. If he votes for Lex next week we know he has joined Frank. I think if Frank lives past next week then a likely final will be Frank losing out to Therasa in the final two.   Top

Ritz 18 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-14-01, 01:28 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" There seems to be some missing strategy both in the players and in these posts. I haven’t had time to read all the threads, but whom you stand next to at the end is how you win or loose. Colby wouldn’t suck up to Jerry, no apology (not that one was needed) and thereby handed the win/lose choice to one person – Jerry! Dragging Lex or Frank to the end would be excellent strategy for any of the remaining players. Standing next to Brandon would be more uncertain. Either Kim next to you is a liability. Eathan next to you leaves you $900,000 short. Just for good TV Lex and Frank at the end would be a hoot.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 12-14-01, 01:54 PM (EST) 8. "It's Time: PTTE Thread..." Weltek, You've been chomping at the bit to start the PTTE Thread...so what are you waiting for. It's Time... Krautboy   Top

true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 01:29 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" Excellent reasoning ICB. I definately see option A happening. I think it would be very unwise of Tom to allign with Frank and Teresa at this point, one more old Samburu must go first. It would make the most sense for Frank or Teresa to be targeted, to break up their obvious alliance, but the known will look better than the unknown (wild card KimP). The old Boran proved that by voting out Brandon over Frank, a much bigger IC threat. Episode 10 Ethan, Kim J, Lex and Tom vote for Kim P Frank, Teresa, and Kim P throw 3 more votes at Lex. Kim P is gone. After that, who knows..it could go several ways. Ep. 11 would be a good time to oust Lex, but if he is on the outside of the old Boran, he really isnt a threat yet. Breaking up Frank and Teresa or Ethan and Kim J would be smart here, but as we've seen, these folks are none too bright. true What do you think, sleeeve? *wink*   Top

TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-14-01, 02:30 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" Great Post! Still, not all the remaining IC's will be physical. This past one wasn't really physical and gave more of an even playing field. What if KimP wins the next IC and has immunity? If anyof the OS win IC, then Lex is a goner. He may be a goner anyway. Also, notice how much face time MammaKIm had. I think this is the most time she's had to date. They are starting to build her up; maybe for a fall.   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 04:38 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" also, I don't think Tom has any loyalty to Kim J other than she was old Boran his original alliance was with Lex, and then with Ethan. Right now, I'm sure he feels more comfortable with Ethan than with Lex though. If he sides with Samburu, I would not be overly surprised to see Kim J gone this week, because Tom still feels some loyalty to Lex and Ethan that said, if a Boran goes, Lex is still the most likely, because he's the one most likely not to require a defection of just one Boran. However, I think Kim and Ethan will stick with Lex. Tom probably will too, but he's definitely the wild card right now. Again, it all comes down to a handshake. I think a Samburu boot is still most likely (probably Kim P, even if Tom shook hands with Frank), but we may see a split between Lex/Ethan/Kim and Tom/Frank/Teresa after that if Tom feels he's on the outside of Boran- and Lex loses that tiebreaker if the Boran votes went to Kim P the episode before   Top

snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 12-14-01, 05:05 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" I'm a newbie here so please be kind. Just want to throw something out there to all of you and see what comes back. In last night's episode Frank said to Tom when they were having the "handshake conversation" something to the effect of "me and Teresa are like family". Could this be an allusion to EP11 "We are family"????? Is this a possible 5-way alliance Tom/Mama/Ethan/Teresa/Frank? Just a thought.   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 09:37 PM (EST) 13. "Don't think so..." I think it's more likely to refer to the fact that everything has calmed down since Brandon was sent packing, everybody's happy, and the whole tribe is at ease with each other. That doesn't mean that anyone wants to win any less, but the intrigue, at least, is gone. This is about the same way everyone reacted after Jerri was booted in E9 of S2 ... there were lots of comments about how everyone was friendly again.   Top

fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-14-01, 08:12 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" I think it will be either KimP or Lex. What about this scenerio, however. Maybe Tom does turn but waits for episode 11. This episode he votes with Ethan, MammaKim, and Lex to out KimP. That leaves us with 1. Frank and Teresa 2. Ethan, Lex, and MammaKim 3. Tom Tom decide he has been loyal long enough and goes with Frank and Teresa to out Lex. I could see him doing this when he realized Ethan is going to take Lex to the final two. If he waits, Ethan will have to take him when they turn around and oust MammaKim, next episode. The final four will be Ethan, Tom, Frank, and Teresa. Frank and Teresa are "family". Ethan knows his only chance is Tom. So KimP goes this next episode. Frank just did not have enough facetime. Tom makes his big move, and Lex goes next. Fyre   Top

Serendipity 525 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-15-01, 10:28 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" In my gut - and we all know how reliable a method that is - I feel it will be Kim P. The only thing that bothers me are comments made by both Brandon and Kelly. They both state that Kelly did not know Brandon voted her out until just before she left Africa. Brandon even says that he told her Frank was the one who voted for her. If Kim P is the next one out, do you think she would go along with that? I can more imagine that she would blurt out the whole story to Kelly. Of course, that is is Kelly and Brandon are to be believed, and I think they still see themselves as playing the game.   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-15-01, 12:58 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" >The only thing that bothers me >are comments made by both >Brandon and Kelly. They >both state that Kelly did >not know Brandon voted her >out until just before she >left Africa. Brandon even >says that he told her >Frank was the one who >voted for her. Actually, Brandon said in his final chat that he didn't tell Kelly he voted for her until two weeks ago. He let her believe, with his encouragement, that Frank cast the vote that led to her boot. The significance of this could mean that Kelly went into the final jury vote with a grudge against Frank as well as the remaining Boran. Kelly's recent attempts to show how much she likes Frank could be an attempt to counter any negative things she might have said during the jury vote, should Frank be one of the two finalists...   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-15-01, 01:21 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" ICB, Well stated. Circumstantial, speculative evidence could also support a KimP boot. Specifically, a significant increase in plot driven face time and a story arc nearing its conclusion lead me to believe that Kim will soon join the "funtime" jury with her buds Kelly and Brandon. KimP was very much UTR throughtout the first 7 episodes. Her face time was primarily due to her role as narrator for the OS, mostly providing exposition and background - explaing challenges, etc.. She was the silent partner in the then-dominant GXA while the focus was on Lindsey and Silas. I believe her story arc began in E6, when in an attempt to save herself, Lindsey suggests that they vote for Brandon so she can stay in the game. Kim's declaration that she wouldn't do that to Brandon (betray him) led to Lindsey's eviction. After acting as the liaison between a defecting Kelly and the Samburu in E8, she cannot forgive Brandon for his Kelly vote during E9. Her "betrayal" of Brandon (her vote for him at TC) contradicts her statement in E6. At TC, she labels herself naive, which leads to her demise in E10. She was loyal, felt betrayed, took her revenge...story over.   Top

fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-15-01, 02:45 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Logical Choices - Ep10" LAST EDITED ON 12-15-01 AT 02:49 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 12-15-01 AT 02:46 PM (EST) I agree. In addition, it is also factual that Kelly stated Brandon and Kim visited her at home. In his early show interview, Brandon also stated that KimP was, along with Kelly, one of his closest friends. The fact that they both linked KimP so closely with them leads me to speculate that she is the next to go. There had to be time for them to develope into such a threesome. Also she is the Samburu with the most loose ends. Also, factual. However, they both could be saying what MB wants them too. Because he has not chosen to show when KimP was voted off or to reveal any other alliances she may have, I guess you can say this is not spoiling. It is however my theory for predicting the next boot. Since I am right only a small percentage of the time, I will just cross my finger, keep on analyzing, and wait anxiously for Thursday. Fyre   Top

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