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with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
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"The politics of AI"
PagongRatEater 12996 desperate attention whore postings
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05-12-06, 11:28 AM (EST)
 
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"The politics of AI" |
I found this article to be a very interesting analysis of why Chris went home and why Elliott will actually be the next American Idol. An insightful look into voting patterns on how they may impact this game in particular.
......
If you want to understand "Idol," you need to understand American politics. And if you want to understand the workings of American politics, "Idol" isn't a bad introduction to the way political coalitions are formed and elections are won. After the "American Idol" field narrows to 12 finalists, the show kicks one contestant off every week - the one who gets the lowest number of votes. The number of votes seems to remain remarkably constant (this year, somewhere north of 40 million) week to week. This indicates the same people continue to vote each week. It also means that the people who voted for the contestant who was kicked off go ahead and just choose somebody new to vote for. This is a direct parallel to the presidential primary process. In the early primaries, candidates who do poorly usually drop out of the race, leaving those who would have supported them in other states high and dry. Those supporters then have to pick somebody else among the surviving candidates to vote for. This winnowing process allows the most appealing candidates to pick up steam by adding new voters to their cadre of supporters. And as they do so, the field continues to be winnowed, until finally there are only one or two candidates left standing. The single-issue candidate, the flash-in-the-pan, the guy who has one fantastic debate - they may all have their moments, but in the end, the candidate with the most broad-based appeal will usually win. And this is what explains Chris Daughtry's stunning loss this week on "American Idol." He has a distinctive voice and distinctive appeal. The problem is that he never broadened his base very much. If you liked him from the start, you stayed with him - which is why he remained solidly among the top contenders through most of the show's run. But if you didn't much like his sound when there were still 9 contestants remaining, you weren't suddenly going to decide you liked his sound when there were only 4 remaining. The key to winning "American Idol" isn't being overwhelmingly popular in the early stages. The key is having a sound that makes it possible for you to pick up votes from people whose favorites have gotten booted off the show. Because if you don't get those votes, somebody else is going to get them. That is almost certainly what happened on Wednesday night. Chris Daughtry lost out to Katharine McPhee because the young female singer Paris Bennett was sent home the previous week. If you loved Paris, you probably weren't going to move into Chris's camp. It's likely that the Paris voters went both to McPhee and to underdog Elliot Yamin, the sweet-sounding guy with the odd teeth who is a balladeer like Paris. Elliot has been gaining strength both because his performances have been good, and because he's clearly picked up support from the fans of eliminated contestants Paris, Kellie Pickler and Ace Young. So where does this leave the final three in "American Idol"? It's likely that McPhee will be the odd person out next week, leaving front-runner Taylor Hicks and under-the-radar Elliot left to duke it out for the title. Taylor Hicks has a distinctive sound and style that are clearly very pleasing to millions. But I think he's a little like Daughtry. If he's your favorite, he's been your favorite for a long time - and he needs to be the second favorite for McPhee's fans to win. But McPhee's sound is probably closer to Elliot Yamin's. Thus, according to the logic of coalition-building that is at the heart of both American politics and Fox's pop-culture phenomenon, Elliot Yamin will be the next "American Idol." It's just good politics. http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/63585.htm John Podhoretz's new book "Can She Be Stopped? Hillary Clinton Will Be the Next President of the United States Unless . . . " has just been published. 
Who knew that I would be able to post about AI and politics at the same time! 
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Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-12-06, 12:01 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: The politics of AI" |
I will now be ill due to the fact that I am in partial agreement with something John Podhoretz said. On the other hand, this ignores the possibility that there is a significant number of people who vote each week not for their favorite, but for the contestants they think did the best that week. It ignores the fact that people can vote more than once. It ignores the fact that people may vote more when they think their favorite is in danger or less when they think their favorite is safe. It ignores the fact that if you are talking about 40,000,000 votes split fourways among people, it doesn't take much of a vote difference to send someone from the top of the chart one week to the bottom the next week. Finally, it ignores those people who decide, once their favorite is gone, that they won't vote anymore. (I was going to put this in a parenthetical sentence, then realized it probably needs further explanation. I think the "vote-no-more" phenomenon is more likely to occur when there are few contestants left than when there are only a handful of contestants left than in the early stages of the finals. If your favorite contestant was Melissa McGhee, there were still eleven others to choose from. If your favorite was Chris Daughtry, there are only three others to choose from. Further, your personal investment in Chris is higher than your personal investment in Melissa would have been. Finally, your personal dislike for the remaining contestants would have more time to grow if you were a Chris fann than it would if you were a Melissa fan. That's why we see "I'm not watching again this season {a choice I made in Season 33 after Latoya got the boot} at the final 3,4, or 5 stage and not at the final 10, 11, or 12 stage. But I digress. A lot.) Other than all those ignores, the basic idea that figuring out where a fanbase goes is important for determining future success is a sound one. Podhoretz apparently feels that Elliott is the most natural beneficiary of Chris' fanbase. I think that fanbase is probably going to be split: Elliott: 30%
Kat: 30%
Taylor: 10%
Not Voting: 30% 
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geg6 14941 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-12-06, 01:41 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: The politics of AI" |
I'm completely with you, Dweeze.On how nausea-inducing it is to agree even slightly with Podhoretz. On the idea that there is some small merit with his theory. On the idea that he doesn't take a lot of factors into account, which we all know exist. And that I'm one of the 30% who will not be voting for anyone else. 
Goddess of the Steeler Nation
Of course, I was only voting for him from the start.
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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-12-06, 02:49 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: The politics of AI" |
And I'm one that was voting for more than one, that will be voting for ony one from now on.
 
Sig by Slice
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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05-12-06, 12:31 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: The politics of AI" |
I like is analogy. I also think he has a point....up to a point.His core point hinges on the number of votes being relatively consistent week to week--so even if some voters drop out, there are others who have taken the reigns or the vote totals would be swinging more wildly week to week. The only way we would really know is to have some tracking research with a large enough sample to be statistically significant in its findings. The research would need to parallel the viewer base--but only of those viewers who vote--so a prestudy would need to be done to determine the demographics of that subgroup. Another reminder that the winner comes from what the voters want--(shaped in part by the judges ) and not from what the viewers want. As for the show overall, I still maintain that the majority of the top ten or 12 finalists can be identified by the way the show is produced in the audition rounds; also that the producers and judges try to shape the outcome with their singing order, production support, and judges' comments--and I will have fun tracking it next season.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
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05-12-06, 01:03 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: The politics of AI" |
It is printed off, I need to scan so I can post but I'll get it up tonight. Raw numbers, a normalization I did because it seemed to make sense and a graph of the raw numbers and a graph of the normalized numbers with linear trend lines will be forthcoming.
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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05-12-06, 03:59 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: The politics of AI" |
nice theory, but it's just that. a theory. I was voting solely for Paris in recent weeks, because she was in danger and I'm a fan. and when she left, I switched to Taylor -- because he's my favorite left. I didn't like Paris because of her "balladeer" style. besides, she didn't usually sing ballads! I liked Paris because she's so talented and I like her personality. that girl has major potential. I like Taylor for completely different reasons. I'm not just going to switch to whomever is most like Paris, good lord. are people really that superficial? wait, don't answer that. it's too depressing.
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priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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05-12-06, 05:27 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: The politics of AI" |
because it's style over substance.I adored Fantasia, but I'm not into her style of music. I didn't vote for her because I like R&B, I voted for her because I thought she's a real star. same with Paris. I voted for her because she's talented, not because I think she'd put out a CD that's my taste. and when they have these idiotic themes, we can't really vote based on our personal tastes in musical styles, can we?
I suppose sure, if you're a rock purist, and think anything else sucks, you'll only vote for Chris.
but then ... a rock purist wouldn't be watching the show in the first place, right? it just doesn't work. imo.
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tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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05-12-06, 06:01 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: The politics of AI" |
>>I didn't vote for her because I like R&B, I voted for her because I thought she's a real star.<<See, but that's YOU. You can pick whomever you'd like to vote for, for whatever reason you decide. I'll do the same. There are alot of people who DO vote for the person whose style of music they like best. People who just don't care about talent or star-quality unless it's a genre they like to listen to. I don't think that's superficiality, it's diversity. I sorta understand your point, (because I felt the reverse with Paris -- I DO like Paris' type of music -- I'm a hoary old cabaret singer myself, and love all the Billie, Ella, Sarah, etc. that I can get my hands on...but I DIDN'T like Paris. So I didn't vote for her. teh.) But I don't agree with your point. This isn't a court of law where the judges get to instruct us on exactly what to consider when we make our decision. (well, they try...but you know ;) ) >>and when they have these idiotic themes, we can't really vote based on our personal tastes in musical styles, can we?<< Yeah, but we can all see the singers' styles even through the themes, can't we? Especially when Chris sings Live for Country night or Bo sings "Vehicle" for Disco night.
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Snidget 44369 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-12-06, 08:36 PM (EST)
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21. "DialIdol Data " |
Here are the numbers.The top set is copied from the Dial Idol ranking from the webpage. The bottom set I divided by the total number of people that week as that seemed to be something they did in making the rankings. It seemed to make each week more comparable to the next. 
A graph of the raw data. 
Here is a graph of the normalized data with linear trend lines. 
If we use this theory, it looks like Kat and Elliot are the ones that have at least so far been picking up more voters as we go along than either Chris or Taylor. Taylor started out so far above the others he didn't have to do much to stay on top until now.
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PagongRatEater 12996 desperate attention whore postings
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05-15-06, 10:24 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: DialIdol Data " |
Very interesting data indeed. The graph certain seems to indicate that Taylor has done very little to pick up votes since the beginning of the competition - which fits nicely into Podhertz's theor because Taylor doesn't have a similar style to any of the contestants who were voted off and therefore didn't pick up their votes. Taylor voters have stayed consistently Taylor voters and so far that has been enough.However, you can see that other contestants HAVE picked up support along the way - either because of improved performances or by gaining some percentage of the dismissed idols voters. If the trend lines hold then Paula is right and Elliott is our next idol (and as Dweeze pointed out in another thread, he is the only of the top four who actually needed towin to have a serious career). It will be very interesting to see what happens next, I tend to think that any Chris voters who still participate will likely go to Kat so I would love to see an update on the trend lines after this week. I think it would be especially interesting to look at the trend lines on this data in a smaller set (like say 6 weeks) since the first few weeks had voting just all over the board and people were still getting to know the contestants. Thanks for sharing Snidget!
But, the four of us had a great time.
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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05-15-06, 01:21 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: DialIdol Data " |
Wow! Great stuff! It really shows how Elliot has been picking up support (the underdog voter perhaps?) and Katherine as well.Taylor has always had more support than Chris, despite the shocked voters of Chris...and shows why Chris was voted off. Taylor needs to be "Taylor" this week or it could easily wind up Elliot and Kat in the end. I am really surprised by the findings from the graphs and appreciate the effort you put in Snidget. Elliot is the dark horse of the contest. I guess the judges' pleas for him worked.
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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05-15-06, 07:38 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: DialIdol Data " |
Who sang last and comparing to Snidget's data:
12 Chris --came in 2nd of f4
11 Ace
10 Elliot -- came in third of the f4
9 Bucky
8 Paris
7 Katherine --came in third and Chris was last of the f4
6 Chris --got to sing last after he was in bottom group the previous week 5 Taylor --and he was tops of the f4 group
4 Katherine -- and she edged out Chris
I think Idol DID pimp Chris by letting him sing last a second time( with 6 left) b4 Taylor...but they knew he needed help.
I also think Elliot surprised them...and Chris's fans were a) complacent and b) not as many as underdog voters...for Kat and Elliot.
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bob_chester 243 desperate attention whore postings
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05-12-06, 09:44 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: The politics of AI" |
"why Chris went home and why Elliott will actually be the next American Idol."
It is because although Chris started off well he never changed. Rested on his laurels.
In the meant time Elliot has constatly improved.
I like Taylor but I have to admit Elliot is moving up.
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Biffster 21 desperate attention whore postings
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05-17-06, 11:35 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: The politics of AI" |
http://us.f2.yahoofs.com/bc/429d145f_13c1b/bc/My+Documents/for+real.bmp?bfHiRnCB5UBnivLrI disagree that Chris never changed. I think he started to decline. He seemed to be coasting on the Elvis show. He didn't have the solid support that Taylor has (I think Taylor is the only contestant that hasn't been in the bottom 2/3 - Chris was at least once). Between the tepid Elvis covers and the sunglasses, Chris wasn't playing to the AI audience. Any rocker who wants to be the American Idol - and I can't see why any would want to go much further than Chris did (get the exposure, get the offers and get out) - can't play rocker dude until the competition is over. The music might get him there, but the poseur attitude won't. Taylor, on the other hand, seems to be a pretty happy guy - and not in the kind of creepy way that Gideon was. Taylor is having fun, and I think people respond to that (ok, I respond to that when I watch him - he also happens to be a pretty good singer, though not the best of the group). Elliot is a very good singer, but projects little personality and isn't as comfortable on stage as Chris (very few people could be as comfortable as Taylor). Once it got to the finaly 4 I would have been pretty happy with any of them, but thought Elliot needed more time to develop a presence. Sorry to see him go, but I'm sorry to see any of them go at this point (after a kick in the pants last week, it'd be interesting to see what Chris would have come up with).
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aifan2006 25 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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05-13-06, 10:08 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: The politics of AI" |
I do think the voting reminds pretty consistant, it is the same group of people who are willing to sit on a phone and vote for 2 hours, something some people are not willing to do but others are, and that's what it takes to win AI. The voting is pretty consistant but occasionally someone like Elliot comes along who does such a great job he get's more votes he normally would causing an upset like Chris going home Wednesday. I think voters will vote for someone who does a really great job, even if maybe they did'nt vote so much for them before.
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