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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-10-01, 07:48 PM (EST) "When in doubt, go with your GUT..." Consider what follows more "gut instinct" than the traditional "Grand Unified Theory" <SHORT ATTENTION SPAN WARNING: Skip to end for summary> Usually, I write long, drawn-out posts about strategy... what each player knows, what each is thinking, and how they will capitalize on that to win. Last Episode proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that this is not possible this season... the only person on this tribe using any sense of strategy at all was Kelly, and she got the boot for it. So that leaves us with spoilers, and this season, those have been few and far between... BUT... there are a select few that I've been hanging on to since the start of the season: Back when the original cast list was announced, a number of friends/neighbors of the contestants wrote in to share information about the contestants. From this information, we learned that Lindsey did not lose much weight, and thus, probably didn't make it very far in the game... we also learned that Tom did lose weight. Several of Tom's neighbors have sworn up and down that Tom makes the final four. One member of this board that had contact with friends of Tom e-mailed me to let me know that Tom's friends were convinced that he made it this far... I trust that member implicitly. All of the other spoilers that we recieved during the same timeframe have come true, and since this was before CBS clamped down their security, I have no reason to believe that Tom will be booted any time before the final four. The second set of spoilers that we recieved had to do with hospitalizations. We knew that Clay (Clarence) Black and Lindsey both spent time in the hospital, while in Africa, indicating that they were booted from the show prior to the end of filming. There was a post on Surviiivor.com, from owen93 that Lex RETURNED HOME with a bug, and was treated in the United States for it... this has recently manifested itself in an article (which seems to twist the original story to make it seem that Lex was treated while still in Africa)... Personally, when given the same story twice with slightly different facts, I am more likely to believe the one that we got early on. Thus, I believe that Lex stays in the game until at least final five (if not later). Tom and Lex are also both edited with more story to tell... neither is done with their time in Africa, IMO... Tom is the court jester, and will continue to impress everyone (and sexually harass the ladies), and Lex is the evil, paranoid psycho that will continue to torment the tribe. But wait... Lex, Frank, and Tom are the only ones with previous votes... If Brandon rejoins original Samburu and they split the vote with Boran, we will have a tie... surely original Samburu will vote for Tom or Lex (whichever does not win immunity) to be booted from the show next... BUT... both seem to survive (if you will pardon the pun) the next TC... how can that be??? Three options: 1) Brandon rejoins Samburu, but they collectively vote for either Kim J or Ethan, and Frank loses in the tie-breaker. -This is unlikely... with Brandon's "brilliant" strategic manuvering this week, how could he let this happen? 2) Brandon rejoins Samburu, but another Samburu defects to Boran. -This seems far-fetched... we've already had two defections... more seems incredibly unlikely in a game where loyalty and alliances matter. 3) Brandon does not rejoin Samburu. Occam's Razor suggests this simplest explanation is the correct one: -Previews show Old Samburu very upset at Brandon (unwilling to forgive or trust???) -Both Ep8's "Final Four" comment, and also the Survivor Insider Clips seem to be shoving the idea that Brandon will rejoin his tribe down our throats: typical MB editing??? -Brandon has a difficult (teary-eyed) decision to make (preview): wait... a decision??? I thought his mind was made up to rejoin his old tribe... hmmmm... -Inherent lack of trust, that he did not disclose his plan to the rest of his tribe prior to the vote: he may not really want to stick with them So... what could keep Brandon from swapping back to Samburu??? Well... all of the above things... but an added bonus as well: Boran+Brandon will vote off Frank, whose story line is complete, and his added face time two weeks ago was to set up his boot in Ep9... this is Brandon's wish come true (and, unfortunately, the end of his storyline, as well...) Okay... Frank's gone in Ep9, and Brandon stays allied to Boran (who is now up 5-2)... According to the official Colby/Tina "How to Win" game plan, it's time to vote off one of your own... Brandon is fifth in the alliance, so he's the target... BUT... Brandon thinks he has it all figured out... he can recruit Mama Kim to join the original Samburu... no such luck... Mama Kim is not budging... you should have switched back when you had the chance, Brandon. Bye. Ep11: There are only a few players left, so alliances will begin to break down to their core... there are three sub-alliances of two, competing for the winner's circle. Lex and Ethan, MamaKim and Tom, and Little Kim and Teresa (alliance by default). The key at this stage of the game is to ally your alliance of two with one other alliance, and vote out members of the third. Strategically, it would be wise for MamaKim and Tom to ally with Little Kim and Teresa to vote out Lex or Ethan (and rid themselves of the challenge threat)... but Tom believes that he is closely allied to Lex and Ethan as well, and MamaKim is also loyal... when Teresa pushes for them to join, she will become the new target... bye Teresa. (but keep lying about that vote for Lex until filming ends... you don't want Kelly mentioning it while she's on the jury). (Note: Ep12, 13a, and 13b may not be in right order... but these three will go during these three eps, IMO) Ep12: Now is the time to dump the likable ones... Both Kims are the biggest threats as opponents on the jury... Tom, still blindly loyal to Lex, may allow them to vote off MamaKim... If not, Lex and Ethan will recruit Powers to vote her off anyway. Bye MamaKim. Ep13a: Powers must go... Just look at Lizzy last season... you cannot risk that the tribal sweetheart wins the final immunity... boot her while you have the chance. Ep13b: It all comes down to Lex, Tom, and Ethan... And this is where I call upon the final spoiler of this thread: Early in the season, MB was asked, in an interview, if he knew who won... he refused to answer, saying that it might give clues about how he was editing the show. In S2, MB was easily able to edit both Tina and Colby as likable, and he didn't care who won... in S3, he may not have had the same luxury, and I think his comments pertain to that case... MB knows who won, and he will edit that person as likable... and the loser as unlikable. Lex is unlikable. Ethan is likable, but peripheral (he was practically invisible until the merge... he's Amber to Lex's Jerri). Tom is the funny, albeit sexist, hick. So... Tom beats Lex in the finals... meaning that Tom wins the final immunity (and votes out Ethan, who will easily beat him). Tom wins a million dollars... he does not buy Clarence a can of beans. Summary: Ep9: Frank (end of story... Tom safe (final four spoiler)... Lex safe (sick when returning home spoiler)) Ep10: Brandon (usefulness outlived... We Are Family ep Title may have something to do with his boot) Ep11: Teresa (final strategist must be eliminated by Lex/Ethan) Ep12: MamaKim (likability threat... allows Lex/Ethan to break up final alliance) Ep13a: Kim Powers (sweetheart cannot make final three) Ep13b: Ethan (MB quote implies he is intentionally editing a good guy and a bad guy in the final two... Ethan is neither of these) LOSER: Lex (see above) WINNER: Tom (see above) You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... I_AM_HE 12-10-01 1    RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... sleeeve 12-10-01 3        RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... red 12-10-01 5  RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... kuchakor 12-10-01 2  RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... red 12-10-01 4    RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... kuchakor 12-10-01 6        RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... red 12-10-01 7            RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... kuchakor 12-10-01 8            RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... sleeeve 12-10-01 9                RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... zzz 12-10-01 11                    RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... true 12-11-01 15                        RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... zzz 12-11-01 19            RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... Naked 12-10-01 10  RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... zzz 12-10-01 12    Well... AyaK 12-10-01 13        RE: Well... sleeeve 12-11-01 14        Timeline & questions Outfrontgirl 12-11-01 16            RE: Timeline & questions PepeLePew13 12-11-01 20        RE: Well... Afreaqua 12-11-01 18  RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... PepeLePew13 12-11-01 17    Good points AyaK 12-11-01 21  Brandon's Vote Revealed Early zzz 12-11-01 22    RE: Brandon's Vote Revealed Early MC_Hampster 12-11-01 23    RE: Brandon's Vote Revealed Early Loree 12-11-01 24        RE: Brandon's Vote Revealed Early Naked 12-11-01 27            Kim Powers Outfrontgirl 12-11-01 28                Old betrayal or New? Krautboy 12-11-01 29                    RE: Old betrayal or New? zzz 12-11-01 30                        RE: Old betrayal or New? Outfrontgirl 12-11-01 31                            The OFG Theory? Krautboy 12-11-01 32                                RE: The OFG Theory? Outfrontgirl 12-11-01 33                                    An argument against Kim P. AyaK 12-11-01 39                                    RE: The OFG Theory? Krautboy 12-12-01 42                                RE: The OFG Theory? TODDLJ 12-11-01 34                                    RE: The OFG Theory? Krautboy 12-11-01 35                                    RE: The OFG Theory? KLicK 12-12-01 44                RE: Kim Powers Mumbo Jumbo 12-11-01 38            RE: Brandon's Vote Revealed Early fyrenice 12-11-01 36    RE: Brandon's Vote Revealed Early I_AM_HE 12-11-01 25  RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT... Swami 12-11-01 26    Occam's Razor AyaK 12-11-01 37        RE: Occam's Razor red 12-12-01 40        RE: Occam's Razor Swami 12-12-01 41            RE: Occam's Razor bondt007 12-12-01 43            RE: Occam's Razor sleeeve 12-13-01 45                RE: Occam's Razor zzz 12-13-01 46                    RE: Occam's Razor Bebo 12-13-01 47                        RE: Occam's Razor zzz 12-13-01 48                            RE: Occam's Razor bondt007 12-13-01 49                                RE: Occam's Razor zzz 12-13-01 51                                    RE: Occam's Razor red 12-13-01 52                                        RE: Occam's Razor zzz 12-13-01 53                RE: Occam's Razor Swami 12-13-01 50  Bump Krautboy 01-06-02 54    RE: Bump Rose Red 01-06-02 55

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-10-01, 08:13 PM (EST) 1. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." LAST EDITED ON 12-10-01 AT 08:18 PM (EST) I disagree that Lex can't go. He's had face time all season, especially the last two episodes, so he has as much chance of being booted off as anyone, more in my opinion. Tom is the second most likely, as he is the other Boran with votes, but I'm picking him as my winner at this point too, so I don't think he'll be going Frank is only an outside shot in my opinion. For this to happen, Brandon has to stay with Boran. Two possibilities here: He stupidly sticks on as the 5th wheel, votes off Frank, knowing this will kill him, or 2) Lex wins immunity and he doesn'twant to vote off Tom, and he therefore sticks with Boran to get rid of someone he doesn't like, Frank. From what we've seen though, this does not appear to be likely If a Samburu goes this week, I think it has to be Brandon. This would mean Frank and/or T would switch sides, though why they would do this is suspect, seeing as it takes them out of a position of strength. Possibly, this could happen if Lex wins immunity and they like Tom too much. Another possibility is that Tom or Kim J has joined T and Frank in a newalliance of 3. Either might do this- Tom had severe reservations about voting off Kelly, and Mama Kim never questioned at all. THis could indicate that Kim J already has joined with Frank and T, or that Tom will make a play to get out of the sinking LET alliance. The advantage for Frank and T is that it guarentess them final 3 instead of 4. therefore FTT/K would bring KimP into the fold after voting off Brandon, and vote off another Boran. however, this could be accomplished also by voting off Lex. even Ethan or Kim J are also possibilities to go if Kim J or Tom switches sides So I see Lex and Brandon as the two in the most danger, followed by Tom or Frank, but only if Lex wins immunity for Tom, or if Brandon stays with Boran for Frank. Ethan and Kim J are safe so long as there is a split along tribal lines, and Kim P and T-bird seem safe regardless of if Brandon jumps ship (unless Frank wins immunity, in which case I don't see Brandon staying with Boran)   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-10-01, 08:22 PM (EST) 3. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." >I disagree that Lex can't go. >He's had face time all >season, especially the last two >episodes, so he has as >much chance of being booted >off as anyone, more in >my opinion. My argument that Lex is safe has NOTHING to do with face time... the guy returned home to the United States sick. With the same thing that Lindsey and Clarence were treated for. If we look at the treatment dates, both Clarence and Lindsey had to report to the hospital about 3-5 days after their boot from the game. If this is the case, Lex can NOT be booted from the game until only 3-5 days remain, or he would have recieved treatment while still in Africa (like Lindsey and Clarence), and not after returning to the US... therefore (face time aside), Lex is safe this week. You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-10-01, 08:26 PM (EST) 5. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." It is possible that Lex actually came down with something while he was at the lodge. Not as likely as during the game, but still not impossible. You can pick up weird illnesses just being a normal tourist.   Top

kuchakor 126 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-10-01, 08:20 PM (EST) 2. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." Awesome theory.....I can definately see this happen, it is pretty much alot of logic....which was basically the whole premise of Survivor 2, but half of the forum likes to make up these strange theories. Although I had though about your theory before, I thought about theory #1 on your list....either way, Frank gets booted. I'm suprised we didn't see more of him in Ep.8, but Ep.7 showed alot of Frank. The only problem I have is that we've saw the preview for Tom's third eye, and on CBS.com there is something about him helping the women shower. Hopefully too much face time doesn't mean that Tom gets booted any sooner, although Tina went through a good bit of face time through this stretch, and Richard was on alot.   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-10-01, 08:23 PM (EST) 4. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." sleeeve, I really like your logic. My biggest problem is Tom winning the final immunity against Lex and Ethan. Isn't the final immunity always endurance? I can't remember what it was for S2 - can someone remind me? In any case, I really can't forsee ANY immunity that Tom could beat Ethan at - unless its hitting on women (something Ethan oddly seems to know nothing about.) I also never knew about the board member Tom spoiler. My only question is this - I can believe the board member is telling the truth and that Tom's friends really believe this. But would Tom tell them? Isn't it more likely he'd let them think something that may or may not be true? I'm really starting to get a headache trying to figure out this game. I do think the Lex hospital thing would make us think he lasts longer. But I also think that based on everything we know about the game, logic, and editing Lex should be prime target to go. No one but Lex and Brandon (and Ethan) had noticable screen time last week. Would they take out Brandon while he's still a useful swing vote? Why that would be suicide! Of course, they've done that already...   Top

kuchakor 126 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-10-01, 08:28 PM (EST) 6. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." In S1 the final immunity was holding on to the Immunity Idol, which was endurance....I see Ethan winning an endurance challenge. In S2 though, it was answering questions about former castmates, which I think Tom would be good at...Ethan is quiet and doesn't interact much, Lex is "evil" and no one seems to like him, and Tom is very open and talks to everyone with the same tone.   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-10-01, 08:31 PM (EST) 7. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." Are you sure? I thought fallen camrades was always when you get down to four. I thought Tina won that one and they voted off Lis and then there was something else that Colby won. Am I wrong? Did Colby win Fallen Camrades?   Top

kuchakor 126 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-10-01, 08:34 PM (EST) 8. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." Yeah, I'm positive that the final s2 challenge was Fallen Comrades, because that is where Keith put "Boston University" instread of Boston College for Elisabeth's question, they wouldn't have asked that if she was still in the game.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-10-01, 08:35 PM (EST) 9. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." LAST EDITED ON 12-11-01 AT 00:50 AM (EST) You are wrong. Fallen comrads was the final three challenge, won by Colby (and lost miserably by Keith). Colby brought Keith Tina to the finals. I think that the final five four IC was the memory game with all of the baskets. (Colby won) EDITED cause I'm doubly a moron... you missed the second one, zzz Thanks, true... GO NINERS! You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-10-01, 09:34 PM (EST) 11. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." >Colby brought Keith to the >finals. In which version of Survivor 2 did Colby bring Keith to the finals? We all know Colby SHOULD have brought Keith to the final, but we also all know that was Colby's $900,000 mistake.   Top

true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 00:16 AM (EST) 15. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." > > >In which version of Survivor 2 >did Colby bring Keith to >the finals? > >We all know Colby SHOULD have >brought Keith to the final, >but we also all know >that was Colby's $900,000 mistake. No need to nit pick, I think we all know what he meant. true Hi Sleeeve! Happy monitoring!   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-11-01, 08:55 AM (EST) 19. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." >No need to nit pick, I >think we all know what >he meant. > Yes--I knew what he meant and I was not trying to nit pick--it was merely my lame attempt at humor.   Top

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 12-10-01, 08:51 PM (EST) 10. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." Colby did win Final immunity against Tina and Keith by answering questions about the other survivors on S2. The same contest occured between Richard, Rudy, Susan, and Kelly in S1, and Kelly won, and then betrayed Susan. Naked   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-10-01, 09:39 PM (EST) 12. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." Well Sleeeve-- Your version of events certainly would be an interesting story and would also be consistent with Kelly's comments about not understanding Brandon's strategy. However, I am just too stuborn to abandon logic so quickly (yeah--I know--I was the one that claimed logic in this game was dead after E8). I just cannot see how OS could be stupid enough not to get back together and take out Lex or Tom. I will admit that the only 2 that I see as really "safe" are Ethan and KimJ (a boot of either of them in E9 would REALLY surprise me), and you make it sound so tempting, but I just don't buy the line your selling. At least not yet--I have until Thursday to decide.   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-10-01, 10:45 PM (EST) 13. "Well..." ...here's the problem with Old Samburu getting back together. Brandon. Let's not let ourselves be manipulated by MB this time. Brandon is going to go up to his fellow Samburu and say, "I just won the game for us by voting out Kelly." And they are going to say, "You f@#king moron a$$hole, if you had just voted ALONG with us, we would have taken out Lex, and we'd win on our own. But you didn't. Which of us will you betray next?" I can just hear Frank saying this. So ... I conclude that Brandi doesn't tell his team that he is the traitor, and he tries to cast suspicion elsewhere. Lex realizes he screwed up by taking out Kelly. But he needs to keep Brandon's vote for one more round to keep from becoming the biggest loser ever. So he offers to use Boran to take out Brandon's enemy Frank. Brandon, realizing that he's dead meat with Samburu after this move and thinking that he can double-cross Lex next time, goes along with it. Mama Kim goes along with voting out Frank, after someone (Ethan?) explains it to her. Brandon may even tell the Samburu that he's going to vote along with them, but he doesn't. Anyway, I think that the outcome will be somewhat different than sleeeve does, because I think Brandon and Kim P. go next. Brandon goes because Lex is ticked that Brandon was lying to him about Kelly and doesn't trust him any more ... heck, it could be a unanimous boot ("We Are Family", after all). Then Kim P. goes, because she isn't part of the Boran core. That gets us down to five. Let's see what information is left. 1. Clarence makes a comment that Kim J. would do anything to stay alive. 2. Clarence seems to indicate that Lex's strategy didn't work. 3. None of the final five would be able to be treated for disease in Africa, because there is a TC every day. 4. Kelly doesn't know who voted for Lex until the end. Why would Teresa, who is uncomfortable lying, keep it a secret while on the jury? After all, it's easy to explain: it was part of the deal that enabled her to win the E7 IC. 5. Kelly says that she didn't know for a while who voted for her. That means that Frank wasn't sure, which means that Brandi must have lied about it ... he didn't come clean about his strategy (part of my theory at the beginning of this post). However, after Frank's boot, Kim P. would know for CERTAIN that Brandi was the rat. Thus, Kelly doesn't find out about Brandi's rattitude until after Kim P. comes out ... 6. Carl and Linda said that they should have made more effort toward recruiting Kim P. into the OFA. We surmised back at the beginning that Kim P. must have spent some time with Frank, for Carl to feel that way. 7. sleeeve's spoilers: Lex gets medical treatment in the US; Tom makes the final four. 8. Ethan's comments about the Kelly vote in E8 were cut. The only time MB did that in S2 was for Colby's vote for Amber in E11, when he didn't want to give away the C-T alliance's plans. Implication: Ethan's strategy may be the one that works. Putting these all together gives us the following approximate boot order: Frank Brandon Kim P. (note: Kim P. COULD go before Brandon, but I'll bet she doesn't!) Lex Tom FINAL 3: Teresa, Kim J., Ethan. DISCLAIMER: If I really knew anything, I wouldn't have botched the last two boot picks! But this is the closest I can get to a GUT right now.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-11-01, 00:05 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Well..." >DISCLAIMER: If I really knew >anything, I wouldn't have botched >the last two boot picks! > But this is the >closest I can get to >a GUT right now. Clearly, the same disclaimer applies to me, too... good to see that we agree on the next two weeks (albeit for slightly different reasons). After that, you and I both may be re-thinking our theories. If not sooner! My only problem with your final three is the MB interview (which I believe points to one of the final two being relatively unliked), and the fact that none of your final three recieved any significant face time pre-merge. You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 04:22 AM (EST) 16. "Timeline & questions" I'm very happy to see this thread, even though I'm not up to posting my own GUT yet... I do have a few things that bother me I would love to see reconciled with the current theories... Brandon's plans 1) I agree that Brandon's plan to rejoin Samburu and vote out Lex is laid out too conveniently in Insider for it to happen exactly as he envisions. 2) Also his contingency plan from last week to vote Tom if Lex won IC gets a mention. 3) But the most prominent (first) Insider clip shows Brandon saying he can't bear to be around Frank another 3 days (or words to that effect). If Insider Clips are considered red herrings when they point to Lex and Tom, how do we reconcile this clip with a theory of a Frank boot next episode? Set-up of Betrayal for this episode MB is also pointing at Brandon this week with the theme and the previews... so if THAT is a red herring, between the Insider Clips and the preview we have herrings for Lex, Tom, Frank and Brandon. They can't all be faking us out; one must be genuine. Weight loss/illness/Tom's friends spoilers I just can't put Tom's friends' beliefs in the same category as Tina's endless bath and eating when she got back (which turned out to be the perfect spoiler). Silas said his parents were convinced he won until they saw the show, so unless Tom told his friends something he was risking a lot to tell, how do they know? Rodger lost a great deal of weight and he did go far, but to 5th place only, so how far from the end can that be our guide? Same with treatment at a hospital and revealing information of actions in the game while on the jury. The final 4 (even 5) all have very little time to compare notes or get treatment or regain lost weight at the lodge. I'm reposting the timeline that AyaK helpfully added to my Kelly's Chat thread because I think it's really useful: the way it works this time is that the fifth-place finisher gets booted at the end of E12: day 36. The fourth-place finisher gets booted on day 37. The third-place finisher gets booted on day 38. The final jury vote takes place on day 39. This follows the S1 timeline. In Burnett's book on S1, he says the wrap party follows the jury vote and they depart on Day 40. It's only 3 days from the 5th place bootee coming to the lodge until the wrap party. When we talk about Kelly getting info "right before" she leaves for home, that could mean the wrap party or the Final TC, or even a day or so before, no? Watching one episode a week stretches out my sense of time passing. In real time, it's all going to happen so fast at the end. As AyaK points out on the Chat thread, none of the final 5 will spend more than three days with Kelly. Really only the next three people will spend much time with her. I also think that Brandon and Frank are two of them, and that Ethan, MamaKim, Teresa, and probably Lex are in the Final 5. Either Tom goes this week or he makes it there as well... Kelly on Frank Kelly said that the "mallrats" (love how she knows that term) had already convinced her Frank dislikes women, and then she changes her mind through knowing Frank better. I think the Frank smear had been done in Samburu camp. We have early Insider Clips of KimP saying how much it bugged her that Frank made sexist comments. Point being that I'm not sure Frank needs to arrive at the lodge before the mallrats, as they've had their chance to do their worst. I do think she needs to spend some more time with him than the postmerge time in the game though. Story arc I don't understand why people say Tom's story's unfinished and Frank's is done. It seems like they're both fully developed as characters. Either could add a twist to the strategic plot of the game; we don't know they have nothing left in that respect. Lex had a lot of face time on the show but only a brief period of being the villain, or Uber-Bastard, as I now dub him. Jerri had a much longer run as villain, so why didn't MB start earlier with the evil side if Lex were going next? You know he had the footage if he had wanted to. So it seems like Lex has two stories, and the second has just shifted into gear. Ethan: here I disagree with sleeeve that he had little early face time. Ethan caught my eye from episode 1. He talked about Diane and the first "issues," about Clarence, we saw him approached by Lex and saying he felt paranoid. I saw Lex, Ethan, and Tom as the Boran stars at the beginning. It's KimJ who was under-developed, and in Samburu, Teresa and Kim P. According to story-arc rules, none of those 3 should make the final 2 due to lack of early face time. I feel like Ethan was highlighted and then his thoughts were hidden from us, because his strategy is key and we are meant to remain guessing, but he has always been a presence, even though he maintains a guarded and low key persona when not starring in challenges. He's no Colby--more of a Tina. And he's no Lamber, even if that clip on the bus edited him to look like a sheep. Final 2: Winner known by Burnett I just saw Kelly on Letterman say she's pretty sure she knows who won. I believed her confidence. I think this time the vote is no cliffhanger 4-3, because one person was actually liked and one disliked (i.e. Lex). I think Ethan wins, but if Tom survives this week I'll consider the possibility that the amusing lech wins... but it sure wouldn't be for who played the best game, would it? I mean, he's merely been a follower to date and not a challenge winner either, whereas Ethan has played a great game. With every mistake, we must surely be learning--George Harrison   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 08:59 AM (EST) 20. "RE: Timeline & questions" LAST EDITED ON 12-11-01 AT 09:07 AM (EST) Nice post, OFG... some good thoughts there. >3) But the most prominent (first) Insider clip shows >Brandon saying he can't bear to be around Frank another >3 days (or words to that effect). If Insider Clips are >considered red herrings when they point to Lex and Tom, >how do we reconcile this clip with a theory of a Frank >boot next episode? Couldn't this be a tip-off that maybe FRANK leads a backlash against Brandon? Perhaps MB is giving us a clue here that they will only have to tolerate each other for 3 more days but not by Frank getting booted... by BRANDON getting booted by a 6-2 or 7-1 vote as Frank leads the rejection by the other Samburus of his explanation then he goes to Lex and says "do you want this chickens**t on your side after he tried to rejoin ours?" Edited to add: I can see Frank doing something like this because he has a sense of 'honor' from being in the military and he would be more repulsed at this turn of events than keeping a clear mind and recognizing that this is a golden opportunity to go to the final four even with someone now detested (maybe in his mind). "Damn you, Carl, for leaving me here with a bunch of misfits." Frank Garrison, Nov. 1/01   Top

Afreaqua 181 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-11-01, 08:45 AM (EST) 18. "RE: Well..." Another possibility: <<Lex realizes he screwed up by taking out Kelly. But he needs to keep Brandon's vote for one more round to keep from becoming the biggest loser ever. So he offers to use Boran to take out Brandon's enemy Frank.>> Lex does realize he screwed up and does want to keep Brandon's vote....the only way to do that is to convince Brandon that he's no longer number 5....that means maybe turning on an old Boran first (perhaps someone who was most vocally disgusted with going along with Lex's gut and voting off Kelly). His paranoia is working overtime and he's aware that Brandon could go back with Samburu, then old Boran will be outnumbered and Lex has all these votes against him so he has to sweeten his deal with Brandon. I know it's a long shot....but it's possible isn't it?   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 08:39 AM (EST) 17. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." sleeeve, a great summary and I think your scenario is about as good as anyone else's out there. I'm torn between thinking along with your GUT and others such as AyaK's or how you've put the final three down. I think it's conceivable that Lex could be booted in 5th place, let's say, and still be able to satisfy the spoiler that he gets treated back in the USA. Only three days between the 5th place bootee until the final episode, and then another 2-3 days of wrapping up before they go home so Lex could reason that since they're so close to getting home, let's just tough it out and then fly home and get treatment. Lex's pissed off enough people to warrant him being booted earlier than final four -- same idea that Jerri would have been ideal to go up against in the final two in S2 but nobody could tolerate her that much longer so it was ciao baby in ep.9. Your point about MB wanting to edit the winner as somebody likeable is very valid as we saw that with Tina last year. I believe he's more liable to hedge his bets with a final two of Tom and Ethan over Lex and Tom -- Tom is sort-of likeable but he's pissed off enough with his lechery and can still be made as a bad guy by continuing his actions so to me Ethan is more safe as a likeable winner IMO, with Tom as the "bad guy" or simply a less likeable person. I know there have been a lot of discussions going back and forth about the importance of face-time (or lack of) in the episode prior. Frank did not get featured in the previews and was non-existent in last week's episode, so I don't see him getting booted this week. That didn't stop Nick and Amber from getting turfed last season, but they never had a story while Frank has had a story on-and-off. IMO, he's safe this week. This week's bootee? I think AyaK made a very good point of Brandon trying to go back to the Samburus and end up being used as target practice by Frank & Co. -- they'll yell at him for siding along with the Borans even when Brandon tries to explain that he feared Kelly as an intellectual and alliance-switching threat. Then Frank & Teresa go to Lex+Borans and say "Brandon tried to switch back to us, let's boot him." We could be seeing a 6-2 vote against Brandon with 4Boran+Frank+Teresa voting for Brandon the Untrustworthy. sleeeve, your scenario could work or it could also work if you switch Brandon and Frank in the pecking order and switch Lex and MamaKim as well and have her go in 3rd place (then again, a final four of Ethan, Tom, MamaKim, KimP would be problematic with potential tiebreak going against Tom unless future votes are piled up against KimP). I hope you are right so it gives us spoilers something to claim, at least, but as we've seen from MB, nothing can ever be counted upon. "Damn you, Carl, for leaving me here with a bunch of misfits." Frank Garrison, Nov. 1/01   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 11:57 AM (EST) 21. "Good points" OFG and Pepe, it is certainly possible that Brandon will end up as this week's victim. He could be voted off unanimously. That would satisfy Frank, who would be willing to help vote off a dishonorable traitor, and Kim P could be the person crying about how she was going to vote ... I would think that she's the most likely person to be "COMPLETELY DEVASTATED BY THE ACTIONS OF ANOTHER" tribe member and would have "difficulty grappling with the deceptive actions of another," as discussed in the CBS preview. Voting out Brandon would clearly satisfy the "Betrayal" part of the episode title, just as voting out Lex, Tom or Frank would (though the betrayal of Frank could be done by Mama Kim more easily than by Brandon -- she may have promised that she wouldn't vote out Frank or T-bird until all the "mall rats" were gone). On the other hand, why wouldn't MB have the clip of Brandon's master plan in the show, if it was going to backfire so quickly? After all, he put the Silas "Write me the check" clip in the show, so we could see how quickly Silas' plan turned to dust. Wouldn't he do the same thing with the Brandon strategy clip, if Brandon was to become the next target? Instead, I think the "master plan" clip in Insider is intended to mislead US, not the general public. Yeah, I know this is speculation based on what I think MB would be likely to do. I guess we'll just have to wait and see, like always.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-11-01, 12:00 PM (EST) 22. "Brandon's Vote Revealed Early" Something has been bothering me since last Thursday, and I have not seen anyone else talk about it directly. It does not necessarily belong here, but I could not find a better thread and did not want to start a new one. Why did MB show us Brandon's vote at TC? Normally when he makes it clear that the vote will be close and it is up to one person to make the tie breaking vote, he never shows the vote cast during the TC vote-casting period. He makes you wait until the last minute when Jeff P reveals the votes to find out. So what happened to us viewers when we saw Brandon's vote for Kelly? How many of you thought in the back of your minds, "Does showing Brandon's vote for Kelly mean that someone else switched their vote to Lex?" Come on--raise your hands. I know you're out there. I know part of me doubted Kelly would be the boot because, to my recollection, MB has NEVER given the boot away in that fashion. Once I saw Brandon vote for Kelly, I was like--what does that mean?...Does that mean it cannot be Kelly? MB succeeded in keeping me doubting my judgment until the last minute. I guess you can say he used "reverse psychology." So what does this mean for E9? Maybe nothing, but maybe everything. MB is messing with our heads. Maybe he is hiding things in plain sight, as some like to say. Some people have pointed out that in SI, Brandon stated he would go back to Samburu, but that portion of his TC speech was cut out of the episode. I am not sure what to make of that either. But when he said in the episode he was "guaranteed final four" it immediately suggested to me that he meant he would go back to Samburu even before I read the SI report. My main point, I guess, is that MB has NO rules. He does things one way for a while to make it look like there is a pattern, and then he violates the pattern. Sometimes he tells us what will happen--and it happens. Often, he seems to tell us what will happen, and then the opposite will happen. There does not seem to be any way to be sure. That, perhaps, is MB's genius. So, I go back to my thought that I am leaning toward Tom or Lex going. Might I be wrong? Certainly. But it is still better than assuming that Brandon is stupid enough to stick with Boran or that Samburu is too stupid and stubborn to take Brandon back. Sure, I can see why Samburu would not trust Brandon. But if Samburu really thinks they can get a better deal with Boran, I don't know what they are smoking out there.   Top

MC_Hampster 105 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-11-01, 01:52 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Brandon's Vote Revealed Early" I was wondering the same thing! When I saw that vote from Brandon, I thought to myself, "Lex must be out." I was very surprised to see him show that vote. Usually he only shows votes in such a way as to build suspense. Showing more votes for Kelly than Lex (I think) or at least showing the "deciding" vote and then having Kelly get voted out seemed extremely suspensful for me (and probably the rest of the spoiler community), but it seems like for the general public it would be less suspensful. I hope I'm making sense. I got the same feeling that this was reverse psychology intended to create suspense for the spoiling community. It seemed to be like a very different move for him. Usually he is editing and doing things for the general public, not the small group of fanatics. Anyway, I think I'm going with Tom or Lex this week too. Yes, this group has had all sorts of surprises for us, but I think you are right... Samburu would be stupid, as would Brandon for it to be any other way. -MC   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 02:19 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Brandon's Vote Revealed Early" I believe that Brandon will vote with the Samburus this week. I think they showed the preview with KimP so upset at Brandon to throw us off. But the Samburus know they need Brandon's vote or they are sunk. And Brandon was smart enough to think this through. I don't think he would be stupid enough to go back and vote with Boran. Brandon knows he needs even Frank for this round of votes. Later the Samburus can start voting each other off. But this week they need each other. I still think Lex or Tom goes depending on the IC. Tom may be voted out because of his 3rd eye and maybe he needs medical treatment. A sympathy vote excuse for the players who actually like Tom. They can say they are doing it for his health.   Top

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 12-11-01, 03:09 PM (EST) 27. "RE: Brandon's Vote Revealed Early" <<<Brandon knows he needs even Frank for this round of votes. >>> I don't think that Brandon "needs" Frank this week. The ball is definatly in Lex's court now. If he can convince Brandon that he will be the number four in the Boran alliance ahead of mamakim (Who they have already talked about voting out) then the final four could wind up being Brandon,Lex,Ethan, and Lex. I just don't see Frank being able to overlook Brandon's "Betrayal". KimP could also be the one voted out this week. Boran wanted to target her last week before kellygate, and wouldn't it be fitting if Dinner, Movie, and a Betrayal was about Brandons vote for KimP. They have alredy broke up there alliance, and I could see the rest of Boran asking Brandon to vote this way in order to prove loyalty. Naked   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 04:18 PM (EST) 28. "Kim Powers" LAST EDITED ON 12-11-01 AT 05:09 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 12-11-01 AT 04:45 PM (EST) Naked-- I had just been thinking this same thing: KimP could also be the one voted out this week Boran wanted to target her last week before kellygate, and wouldn't it be fitting if Dinner, Movie, and a Betrayal was about Brandons vote for KimP. Ethan's remark about voting out Kim on the bus--I took that to mean Kim Powers. Ethan remarked on her athletic strength earlier. I think he sees her as a challenge threat. If she should win the reward that will be even more the case. ----------------------------------------- Aside on Boran voting bloc I still connot compute Ethan's math reckoning on the bus. He says maybe throw a couple votes at Kelly but vote out Kim. There are 5 Boran (he must be counting on Kelly's vote) plus Brandon maybe--that would be 6. I guess if they told Brandon to vote for Kelly, and he and Lex did that, and Ethan, Tom, Mama, and Kelly voted against Kim P it would work, because there would be a 4-3 even if the rest of Samburu united, what an unlikely plan! After Ethan's proposal Lex tells him they have to be careful about watering down their votes, but even he doesn't say the idea is nuts. Odd, unless they thought they could control even more votes... I'm sure Ethan can do math. ----------------------------------------- Anyway, I could see KimP going within the game logic, if she goes off on Brandon too much for betraying them and refuses to trust him. If she blows it like that he would be almost forced to stay with Boran--Lex seems to trust Brandon, because Lex's gut intuition is just that amazing. It would be very easy for Brandon to turn Boran further against KimP, because he can say she's responsible for Kelly's defection. If Lex were to win IC, Brandon would have even more reason to stay with Boran, as he would have to deal with a Mad Lex trying to cut off Brandon's head next time, if B joined Samburu to vote out Tom. The argument against KimP going is clearly lack of face time. Who is she? If not for a few Insider Clips I'd barely have heard her talk. Would Burnett keep her that UTR right up to her boot episode? Or are the views of her buff getting shorter and shorter trying to tell us something? (That's for IceCat.) Wouldn't it be funny if the next episode there were 5 votes against KimP and 3 against Brandon, and none against Boran? Edit: the other big problem with KimP being next boot: it would arise because she believed Brandon voted against Kelly, and if Brandon sent KimP to the lodge this week she would surely tell Kelly that Brandon betrayed both of them--and Kelly supposedly doesn't learn of Brandon's strategy for awhile. I also just found a part of Kelly's ET interview where she talks about post-game friendships and says "I love Kim and Brandon." As a unit. If Kim and Brandon betrayed each other (or one did it to the other), I would think they would not forgive, and I would think Kelly would stop lumping them together as a unit in the present. I'll add the link to the chat thread. With every mistake, we must surely be learning--George Harrison   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 12-11-01, 06:52 PM (EST) 29. "Old betrayal or New?" > >KimP could also be the one >voted out this week >Boran wanted to target her last >week before kellygate, and wouldn't >it be fitting if Dinner, >Movie, and a Betrayal was >about Brandons vote for KimP. I've been assuming that the "betrayal" in the title refers to Brandon's betrayal at TC, with EP9 featuring the tribe's reaction to it. Many posts have been suggesting another betrayal. I don't think it's that complicated. "Dinner, Movie and a Betrayal" is most likely just describing the major topics covered during EP9. The "betrayal" part is the discussion and emotion surrounding the betrayal from last week, the Dinner and a movie part is the reward for the RC. If it were ANOTHER betrayal I would expect the title to be something like "an eye for an eye", "revenge is sweet" etc....   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-11-01, 07:00 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Old betrayal or New?" Krautboy-- I just don't read it the way you do. The episode is called "Dinner, Movie and a Betrayal". This does not sound to me like topics of conversation but rather events that will take place in the episode--and presumably in that order (with betrayal coming last). I have a hard time seeing the betrayal as merely a reference to past events being discussed, especially when Brandon did not even really betray Kelly--he never had an alliance with her (yeah--I know, KimP saw it as a betrayal and that makes it one--MB is loose with the language). P.S. Thanks for leaving off your sig--this thread is getting very long as it is.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 07:19 PM (EST) 31. "RE: Old betrayal or New?" I agree about the title, zzz. Betrayal comes last. I am beginning to think a betrayal is necessary--not to fulfill the title, but to foil Samburu's clear path to the F4. I don't think they pull off their advantage--as I argued on my last post on Kelly's Chat thread. They ought to with what we know! Either Brandon stays Boran and dumps Frank (not a betrayal in my mind, and not causing a female to cry over a difficult decision), or a new person makes a play to the other side. My newest serious consideration is that Teresa (who doesn't like tricks, per her comment to Clarence) defects to Boran out of mistrust of Brandon. (Why would she trust Brandon? Was he ever her ally before?) Lex likes her and her TC comments were the only ones that said nice things about Lex. I think Teresa is the only Samburu to make the Final 5, and I think the "manipulator" might be making her move soon. Pure speculation, but I'd be interested in feedback (as always).   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 12-11-01, 07:56 PM (EST) 32. "The OFG Theory?" OFG: What happened to your theory each weeks bootee being shown in at least one prominant VidCap? Frank is not shown in any this week. No where to be seen. I have become a loyal follower of your posts and now you are saying your theory is a bunch of bunk? What's a Krautboy supposed to believe? Krautboy   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 08:08 PM (EST) 33. "RE: The OFG Theory?" LAST EDITED ON 12-11-01 AT 08:10 PM (EST) LOL, Krautboy, very funny. You know I was going to post last week that my theory wasn't at all useful at this point of the game as there are so few players they should all get a vidcap. But in fact they have dropped Frank off the planet this time. Maybe Sherpa got it right and Frank had to report to his home planet and they're covering up his absence... No, I haven't dropped my theory--unless the evil Burnett changed his preview technique due to reading the boards (kidding!). I don't think it's Frank. Did I say that? That's just a logical way the game could go to start losing Samburu. No, I think it's either Brandon, KimP, or Tom who gets booted, and they're all featured in the preview. I'm starting to drift towards KimP... it's only the low face time holding me back.   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 11:30 PM (EST) 39. "An argument against Kim P." I hate to use CBS Eyemail as a reason to predict that Kim P. will stay, but... Here are the people featured in Eyemail so far, staring with episode one: E1: Ethan (Boran) E2: Lindsey (Samburu) ... booted in E6 E3: Tom (Boran) E4: Linda (Samburu) ... booted in E4 --The Twist-- E5: Kelly (Boran/New Samburu) ... booted in E8 E6: Frank (Samburu/New Boran) --The Merge-- E7: Brandon (Samburu/New Samburu) E8: Teresa (Samburu/New Boran) E9: Lex (Boran/New Samburu) --to come-- Kim J. (Boran/New Boran), Kim P. (Samburu/New Samburu) I have a difficult time believing that a JURY MEMBER wouldn't have been profiled in Eyemail, and Kim P. could have been profiled in place of Lindsey or Linda if she were going to be booted this week. Thus, I have to believe that she's safe this week.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 12-12-01, 04:07 PM (EST) 42. "RE: The OFG Theory?" OFG: The OFG Theory is on the other boards now too! You aren't getting much recognition though. Your famous, but in an "unknown soldier" kind of way... Krautboy   Top

TODDLJ 421 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 12-11-01, 08:10 PM (EST) 34. "RE: The OFG Theory?" I agree, Krautboy. The bootee will be featured in the preview, that seems to be true for every ep. this season. Even when the boot didn't point to them at all, at least they were featured about something. Not featured (therefore potentially safe): Frank KimJ Teresa Ethan The survivors prominantly featured are: KimP (can't see her going... how would that happen?) Brandon (could go, if everyone turns on him, but would seem illogical for T and Kimp to turn on him now, even if they feel betrayed, it would cost them the game.) Tom (could easily go. the preview features him, but does not point to his boot... that seems like MB's usual strategy.) Lex (could go, but seems too obvious, though we've had obvious ones before.) TOM seems like the choice.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 12-11-01, 08:17 PM (EST) 35. "RE: The OFG Theory?" Yes, here's OFG's theory in her own words and my interpretation of it this week...I'm with you ToddLJ. “Anyway, I have one additional theory about previews and the bootee--which I have posted before but will propose again: there will be a good shot of the bootee in the preview. The shot will probably not be setting them up as a target--although Linda's a notable exception, but there will be something to bring that player to the public's consciousness--even a simple close-up shot of them smiling or making a funny face.” OFG Krautboy   Top

KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 12-12-01, 04:46 PM (EST) 44. "RE: The OFG Theory?" How could it be Kim P? Ethan had suggested Kim as a bootee to Lex during the reward trip last week. Why? He sees her as a physical threat is one explanation. THe other? He has a back-up alliance with Teresa and Frank formed when there was so much uncertainty after the swap. He didn't know if Lex and Tom would still be in the game post-merge let alone what kind of deals they'd made "in their son's names." So -- Lex owes Brandon and Ethan won't vote F/T. That leaves Kim P as the target. They need one more vote to get her -- it comes from Brandon. Who is told in no uncertain terms that Frank won't go to a final four with him. Bye KimP. Bye Brandon. Let the real fun begin with 6 people and so many overlapping alliances that the game will be a BLAST (and I'll be out of town for Christmas   Top

Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-11-01, 11:21 PM (EST) 38. "RE: Kim Powers" OFG, >Edit: the other big problem with >KimP being next boot: >it would arise because she believed >Brandon voted against Kelly, and >if Brandon sent KimP to >the lodge this week she >would surely tell Kelly that >Brandon betrayed both of them--and >Kelly supposedly doesn't learn of >Brandon's strategy for awhile. Kelly has stated that she thought Frank voted for her at her boot. KimPee may not know who the traitor is during her speech if both Brandon and Frank deny it. Because she's so upset we have assumed that she knows its Brandon but it's possible that she only knows it's one of the old Samburu, not herself. If Brandon denies it and old Boran does not tell, she could go to the lodge next without knowing who the traitor is. >I also just found a part >of Kelly's ET interview where >she talks about post-game friendships >and says "I love Kim >and Brandon." As a >unit. If Kim and >Brandon betrayed each other (or >one did it to the >other), I would think they >would not forgive, and I >would think Kelly would stop >lumping them together as a >unit in the present. I agree that it would be hard for Kelly and Kim to forgive Brandon unless he goes before KimP or soon afterward. And Kelly would not refer to them as a unit. Remember when Lindsay's head was on the chopping block and she wanted to vote for Brandon with KimPee and Old Boran? KimPee refused (though I'm not sure what she told Lindsay) and said, "Brandon would not do it to me." It would be an excellent betrayal if KimPee got voted off next by Brandon and Boran after refusing to vote against him and may be saving his neck. However, I can't reconcile this idea with kelly's feelings toward him.   Top

fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-11-01, 10:43 PM (EST) 36. "RE: Brandon's Vote Revealed Early" LAST EDITED ON 12-11-01 AT 10:51 PM (EST) Brandon needs Frank only if he thinks his best chance is Boran. The question is does he think this. Frank is the only Samburu with a vote while Boran has Lex with six and Tom with four. If you read the insider clips, he seems to think he can go to the final four with this. What would change his mind? Lex convincing Brandon that he would vote out one of their own to make him final four. This would only be possible in my opinion if he convinced him that he would do it this TC. Kim throwing a fit and not accepting him back. While Kim seems to be the one blowing up, I for one would be more worried about Teresa and Frank. Now for spoilers- Tom- friends and lost weight. From what we have seen on the show, Tom is a good-natured kindof guy and a storyteller. By his very nature and attitude, I could see him leading people to believe he had gone far. As far as losing weight, any amount of weight loss on a man as big as Tom will seem like a huge amount to those at home. However, I still see him going far. Hospital visits- Lex and the changed story. I would tend to agree that the first story would be more accurate. The exception to this case is the fact they both could be true. Lex was treated while in Africa, but not cured due to the short time left. He continued treatment upon reaching the States. As has been said, there is only three days between the fifth vote and Final TC, that is not a long time to treat a serious illness. However, he would definitely be well enough to travel and continue treatment at home. Amount of face time- Frank just did not have enough last episode. Neither did Tom. Who did? Lex,Brandon, Ethan, and Teresa. What I propose? This is farfetched, for sure. Brandon attempts to rejoin Samburu. Samburu reacts as shown. Tom is furious with Lex over his mistake. We have seen Tom react to mistakes before (Clarence). Lex sees that he is in trouble. Kim forgives Brandon. Teresa and Frank only appear to forgive Brandon. Maybe one of the reasons, Kelly calls her manipulative. Lex 'secretly' makes a pact with Samburu to vote off Ethan. Lex has won immunity.That is what they do. Teresa is torn up about this as she likes Ethan and doesn't like Lex. Next episode, Frank and Teresa approach MammaKim and Tom with what happened. This was their plan all along. They vote off Lex. Final six- Frank,Teresa,MammaKim,Tom,KimP,and Brandon. Brandon goes. Final five- KimP goes. Final four-Frank, Teresa,MammaKim,and Tom Fyre I am not for sure, but I think they were talking about targeting Kim P on the bus, not Mammakim.   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 02:39 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Brandon's Vote Revealed Early" i don't think MB goes out of his way to deliberately foil spoilers, as some seem to think. yes, he keeps the result of the game an iron-clad secret, and even goes to some length to spread disinformation, but i don't think a little thing like this is to fool the over-analyzers. i think it is simply this: what is better television, to hide Brandon's vote, and then have us say "Wow, Brandon sided with Lex!" or to actually show such a dramatic vote? I think it is clearly the latter, because of the implications such a vote has for the game. Yes, MB typically hides the votes if there's uncertainty in the viewer's minds, but this seems to almost ALWAYS indicates that a switch does NOT occur, or else the consequences of the vote are not as dramatic, and there is at least a little more certainty already beforehand that it might go this way (ala Jerri and Mitchell) Brandon's vote was not technically a betrayal, and showing it made for better drama than not showing it would have, IMHO   Top

Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 02:47 PM (EST) 26. "RE: When in doubt, go with your GUT..." Interesting post, Sleeeve. This must be how you got your name & slogan? I have just 2 quick comments. Occam's Razor is very applicable to scientific reasoning, and logical philosophical discussions, but I am not so sure it applies to the kind of wild-ass, make-it-up-as-you-go-along stategies that the Survivors come up with on short notice & with limited information. Like zzz said, logic is dead in this game. But I do agree that Brandon's next choice/decision will determine who the bootee is. Regarding Tom's weightloss. I have 2 friends who got amoebic dysentery while in the Peace Corps in Africa. Admittedly, this was a few years ago, but they had a heck of a time getting fully cured and one of them had repeated flare ups for months afterwards. Tom could have continued to lose weight for a while after his boot, if he didn't respond well to the dystentery treatment protocol. Swami   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-11-01, 11:18 PM (EST) 37. "Occam's Razor" LAST EDITED ON 12-11-01 AT 11:19 PM (EST) swami, we started using Occam's Razor (or Ockham's Razor, depending upon your discipline) as a Survivor principle after last year's E6 ... heck, I was one of the two people who originally discussed it in a Survivor context. Why? Simple. From the preview, we knew someone was injured in the episode; from a Web column, we knew Mike came back from Africa with his hands wrapped in burn bandages; and we had a picture of Mike (a month after returning) with burn gloves on ... but we didn't pick Mike as our boot choice. Instead, we came up with complicated theories to explain what happened. I argued that our fundamental mistake was not recognizing the value of Occam's Razor in this context: The simplest explanation, consistent with the facts that we know, is usually the right one. Since then, we have generally found that Occam's Razor does work in the Survivor context. We used it to help predict the Jerri boot in E9 and many of the other S2 events. I also used it when arguing against the three-tribe theory this year....   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-12-01, 01:08 AM (EST) 40. "RE: Occam's Razor" Can we use Occam's Razor to predict the next vote? Lex?   Top

Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-12-01, 09:59 AM (EST) 41. "RE: Occam's Razor" >I argued that our fundamental mistake >was not recognizing the value >of Occam's Razor in this >context: The simplest explanation, >consistent with the facts that >we know, is usually the >right one. AyaK, Thanks for cluing me in on the history of using Occam's Razor in Survivor spoiling. I agree with your statement above, but the key ingredient to using Occam's Razor are the words "facts that we know". What are the facts in Sleeve's 3 options? They seem like scenarios to me, not facts. He characterises option (1) as "unlikely", (2) as "far-fetched" and (3) as "simplest". These 3 formulated options are opinions, not accepted facts. I totally respect Sleeeve's opinions, and the insights & knowledge that goes into formulating them--but opinions is opinions, and facts is facts. Occam's Razor requires a stronger factual basis. I don't think that's being too nit-picky. > From the preview, >we knew someone was injured >in the episode; from a >Web column, we knew Mike >came back from Africa with >his hands wrapped in burn >bandages; and we had a >picture of Mike (a month >after returning) with burn gloves >on ... but we didn't >pick Mike as our boot >choice. Instead, we came >up with complicated theories to >explain what happened. Yes, this is a perfect situation in which to apply Occam's Razor. I totally agree here. These are facts. Swami   Top

bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-12-01, 04:44 PM (EST) 43. "RE: Occam's Razor" You all are, once again, providing excellent analysis. One thing about Occam's Razor pointing to ez-to-pick Lex... from Kelly's comments - I can't see these two sitting around together, alone for three days chatting and having a good 'ol time, after what Lex did to Kelly, and again her comments this last week -   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-13-01, 00:07 AM (EST) 45. "RE: Occam's Razor" Occam's Razor can be applied to any set of circumstances, provided that the set contains more than one logical conclusion, and excluded subsets are noted for the purpose of the analysis. In this case, Occam's Razor was applied under the following circumstances: 1) Assumption that Lex remains in the game. 2) Assumption that Tom remains in the game. Given these two assumptions, applying Occam's Razor indicates that Frank would be gone next, as it is the simplest remaining solution. Your argument is that Occam's Razor cannot be used without a basis of fact, but my original post asks you to accept that Tom and Lex stay as a fact, and then attempts to lay out a set (per the scientific definition of the term) of events to be considered under the application of Occam's Razor. Clearly any scientist would agree that given a set of assumptions, any factual test can be applied to them. For example, half the world believes in the existence of the electron, and much scientific theory is based on it, but it still has not been proven as fact... if it is shown that the electron does NOT exist, scientists will have to reformulate many conclusions they have drawn from this erroneous assumption. Similarly, any scientist (including myself) would agree that if your platform of knowledge is proven wrong, then new hypothesis must be made. In other words... if I'm wrong about Lex and Tom, then I'm also wrong about Frank (obviously)... but if I'm right about Lex and Tom, then Occam's Razor definately suggests that Frank is the most logical remaining choice. (Although Occam's Razor is also not always accurate... see Kelly's boot ) One final note... in your earlier post, you state that Occam's Razor cannot be applied to strategy, and I would agree with that. But I believe that it can always be applied to evidence (such as the Tom makes the final four spoiler). You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-13-01, 09:04 AM (EST) 46. "RE: Occam's Razor" Why is Frank the next most logical choice? On the bus, Lex and Ethan indicated that KimP (I assume it was KimP and not KimJ) was their next target. Lex believes he calls the shots. There is no reason to believe Lex will now allow Brandon to call the shots. Thus, why doesn't Occam's Razor indicate that KimP will be the next boot (given your assumptions about Lex and Tom)?   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-01, 09:20 AM (EST) 47. "RE: Occam's Razor" >Thus, why >doesn't Occam's Razor indicate that >KimP will be the next >boot (given your assumptions about >Lex and Tom)? Because of the prior votes. Since voting along tribal lines would result in a 4-4 tie, prior votes would be significant. Since Frank has a prior vote, and KimP doesn't, Frank would be the more logical target.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-13-01, 10:17 AM (EST) 48. "RE: Occam's Razor" >>Thus, why >>doesn't Occam's Razor indicate that >>KimP will be the next >>boot (given your assumptions about >>Lex and Tom)? > >Because of the prior votes. >Since voting along tribal lines >would result in a 4-4 >tie, prior votes would be >significant. Since Frank has >a prior vote, and KimP >doesn't, Frank would be the >more logical target. that makes no sense at all to me. If it is a 4-4 vote, Lex or Tom WILL be one of the targets. I cannot imagine a situation in which OS gets back together but stupidly targets Ethan or KimJ, and on prior votes, Lex or Tom both lose to Frank. The most logical conclusion if Lex and Tom stays is that it CANNOT be a 4-4 vote, but rather is a 5-3 vote. If it is a 5-3 vote (OB+Brandon against OS), then they can get rid of anyone they want out of the 3--and Lex and Ethan, the leaders of OB, have stated they want KimP out next. Prior votes would be COMPLETELY irrelvant.   Top

bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-13-01, 11:18 AM (EST) 49. "RE: Occam's Razor" Stop thinking so one dimensional and look at ALL of the information we have. If you include Kelly's comments from this last week you will see that Frank is a much better bootee pick than Lex (see Kellys comments thread)... that's not to say I'm picking Frank just yet - but I can not see Lex going yet or anytime soon.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-13-01, 12:22 PM (EST) 51. "RE: Occam's Razor" I am sorry, but I do not see how your comment is at all responsive to my comment. I stated that IF we assume that Lex and Tom stay (as Sleeeve has asked us to do), the simplest answer (Occam's Razor) to who gets booted next is NOT Frank but rather KimP because she is the next target of Lex and Ethan--the people calling the shots. I also stated that if Lex and Tom do not go, then it is safe to assume that there is NO tie vote, and thus prior votes is irrelevant.   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-13-01, 01:58 PM (EST) 52. "RE: Occam's Razor" Actually, I think Frank would be a more likely target than KimP. You are exactly right - if both Tom and Lex stay then the votes must be 5-3 (barring some new unforseen stupidity.) However, although KimP was the first choice target of Ethan/Lex, because they are now dependent on Brandon's vote, they may have lost some of their bargaining power. Brandon is effectively in a position to decide who goes, and I think Frank would be a more likely choice than KimP.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-13-01, 02:15 PM (EST) 53. "RE: Occam's Razor" >Actually, I think Frank would be >a more likely target than >KimP. You are exactly >right - if both Tom >and Lex stay then the >votes must be 5-3 (barring >some new unforseen stupidity.) >However, although KimP was the >first choice target of Ethan/Lex, >because they are now dependent >on Brandon's vote, they may >have lost some of their >bargaining power. Brandon is >effectively in a position to >decide who goes, and I >think Frank would be a >more likely choice than KimP. > Thank you very much for someone finally actually answering the question that I posed. However, I think you have proven my point. Occam's Razor CANNOT demontrate that Frank will go even IF you assume Lex and Tom are safe. Occam's Razor can only lead to the conclusion that if Lex and Tom stay, an OS goes. Why would you assume that Brandon would call the shots? He did not call the shots the last time. Lex decided whom to boot. Why isn't the "simpler" answer that Lex continues to call the shots. If Brandon agreed to be on Lex's team, why assume Brandon would be able to take control of the team? I agree that Brandon MIGHT insist that Frank be next to go, and Lex MIGHT feel he has to go along with Brandon. But that is a judgment about strategy. It CANNOT be a result of the "simplest explanation." All Occam's Razor can do, given the assumptions, is lead to the conclusion that Lex keeps Brandon on board and the OB+B go after one of the OS. I don't see how it tells you which one. For that you need to make judgment calls about personalities and strategies that go beyond the "simplest explanation" approach of Occam's Razor.   Top

Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-01, 11:43 AM (EST) 50. "RE: Occam's Razor" Thank you, Sleeeve, for the clarification. The example of the theoretical existance of the electron was very helpful in my understanding your reasoning. I now bow to your superior reasoning and withdraw my objection. Swami   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 01-06-02, 07:44 PM (EST) 54. "Bump" Thought I would bump this out opf the archives because of the many references to it lately... Krautboy   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 01-06-02, 11:48 PM (EST) 55. "RE: Bump" Thanks, KB! This post of Sleeve's clearly shows that Tom makes it to the F4, but not necesarily beyond it.   Top

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