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"Hindsight"
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-01, 12:25 PM (EST)
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"Hindsight"
Since Pinky and the Brain was the only person to pick Kelly this week, (Congratulations Pinky!) the rest of us should be able to learn something using a little hindsight…

First lets consider what we got right:

Lex’s Torch

Lex’s torch was a red herring; Icecat, Bungler and others were right. I don’t think we even saw that same shot in the show. We were right to speculate that Lex would not win immunity.

CBS Poll

The CBS poll included Lex, Brandon, and Frank. Many of us concluded that this was also a red herring, leading us away from the real bootee. We were right.

Hidden by the Editing

We speculated that those edited as targets would be safe. We were right. Lex was the target of the counter-attack, Teresa was previewed as the target of the witch hunt, Frank was a target as a strong Samburu and outcast. They were all safe.

Preview Vidcaps

Outfrontgirl pointed out that each week’s boot victim has been pictured in that weeks preview vidcaps. She was right. Kelly was pictured; Ethan was not.

Face Time

It has been observed that face time often spikes up the week prior to a person’s boot. Pinky the Brain noted in the vote thread that Kelly’s face time increased in the recap show. Pinky was right.

Game Logic

We thought that Kelly was the Boran most likely to be approached about switching over and also the most likely to consider it. We were right.


Now, were did we go wrong?

Game Logic

I think we screwed up because Lex screwed up. He let his paranoia get in the way of the logical strategy. Could we have predicted that? I’m not sure…
It made much better sense for the Boran to vote off one more Samburu before they got rid of Kelly or Kim, but Lex went off the deep end…


Immunity Winner

The Immunity challenge was a non event because Ethan won. No one needed it less than him, so MB had no way of using the IC to create drama, because there was none.

I don’t think we should give up on the idea of MB editing the Immunity winner as a target that week. But it will only work when he has something to work with. Last week he didn’t.


MB had the upper hand last week because he had good material to work with. No one could have predicted the double switch resulting from what I consider two strategic mistakes; Lex made a mistake that opened the door for Brandon, who responded with another mistake...it made for interesting TV, but difficult to predict.

Krautboy

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Hindsight Sam Buru 12-09-01 1
   RE: Hindsight Naked 12-09-01 2
       RE: Hindsight Sam Buru 12-09-01 3
       RE: Hindsight red 12-10-01 12
           RE: Hindsight zzz 12-10-01 13
               Betrayal AyaK 12-10-01 32
                   RE: Betrayal red 12-11-01 33
 RE: Hindsight Rose Red 12-09-01 4
 RE: Hindsight idiotcowboy 12-09-01 5
 RE: Hindsight munson 12-09-01 6
   RE: Hindsight Krautboy 12-09-01 7
       RE: Hindsight Rose Red 12-10-01 8
           RE: Hindsight Naked 12-10-01 9
               RE: Hindsight fyrenice 12-10-01 10
                   RE: Hindsight Naked 12-10-01 11
                       RE: Hindsight red 12-10-01 14
 COULD Ethan be next? red 12-10-01 15
   Ethan won't be next esquire 12-10-01 16
       RE: Ethan won't be next MDSkinner 12-10-01 17
           RE: Ethan won't be next zzz 12-10-01 18
           RE: Ethan won't be next red 12-10-01 19
               RE: Ethan won't be next zzz 12-10-01 20
                   RE: Ethan won't be next red 12-10-01 22
               RE: Ethan won't be next MDSkinner 12-10-01 21
               editing diamond 12-10-01 23
                   RE: editing red 12-10-01 24
 RE: Hindsight TheWanderer 12-10-01 25
   for sure not Brandon drich61 12-10-01 28
 Can we be sure it could be a Boran? Bebo 12-10-01 26
   RE: Can we be sure it could be a Bo... zzz 12-10-01 27
       RE: Can we be sure it could be a Bo... red 12-10-01 29
           RE: Can we be sure it could be a Bo... zzz 12-10-01 30
               RE: Can we be sure it could be a Bo... Naked 12-10-01 31

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Sam Buru 40 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-01, 02:30 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Hindsight"
Krautboy, hindsight being what it is, I don't think very many have caught up to Brandon move. In my wildest imagination, I couldn't see Lex going after Kelly. I also couldn't see the wisdom of Brandon voting against Kelly.

With "hindsight" Brandon made the perfect move. For a while this will freeze Boran, they have to assume Brandon is still with them. Samburu has to side with Brandon. THEY HAVE TO TAKE HIM BACK! Lex is the target for next week.

Voting Kelly off forces Samburu to vote Lex off next episode. Brandon wins a major coup by pulling this off. His tribemates have to be greatfull in the reunion two episodes away.

I guess I only see one strategic mistake, Lex's.

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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-01, 03:00 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Hindsight"
Brandon's mistake eliminated him from the money. Not only will he have to betray the majority of Boran to get to the end, he will also have to betray Theresa and Frank eventually to get to the final 2. If he does not, then they will allign with the last Boran to eliminate him. He is also one of the most disliked contestants in the game now. The only way he could win is to somehow bring Lex with him. I don't see this happening.
Naked
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Sam Buru 40 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-01, 06:40 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Hindsight"
You have a valid point, but by all rights Brandon should have been voted off at the merge.

If Brandon does make it to the final four, Brandon becomes the one you want with you in the final two. That was Colby's big mistake last time, he didn't take Keith with him.

Unless Brandon has a secret alliance with Frank or T-Bird, when they are down to the finals it is every man for themselves, it isn't betrayal at that point of the game.

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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 01:25 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Hindsight"
>Brandon's mistake eliminated him from the
>money. Not only will he
>have to betray the majority
>of Boran to get to
>the end, he will also
>have to betray Theresa and
>Frank eventually to get to
>the final 2.

This is a common belief on the boards - if you betray people then you can never win the game. Although it seems likely people will be resentful and not vote for you, this has actually never been proven. Part of the nature of the game is betrayal. Just because it hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean its impossible. We didn't think Richard Hatch could win, because we thought everyone would be too resentful...

If he
>does not, then they will
>allign with the last Boran
>to eliminate him.

Most likely. However, Teresa may like her chances against Brandon better than her chances against Frank, for example.

He is
>also one of the most
>disliked contestants in the game
>now. The only way he
>could win is to somehow
>bring Lex with him.

Oh yes, the everybody hates Brandon theory. Which is based on what exactly? All those private interviews where people talk about how much they dislike Brandon? Oh, that never happened. Watching contestants interact with Brandon and seeing they dislike him? Oh, right, that never happened. What could it be that makes people think this? That Brandon's gay? Oh, right - if you're homophobic everyone else must be. Therefore, Brandon is MOST HATED.


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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 01:48 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Hindsight"
red--

I usually don't respond to a post just to say that I agree with someone, but I will do it here. I agree with you. There seems to be this feeling--I think based on Frank's and Tom's apparent dislike of Brandon that he is the least liked Samburu. But, contrary to this conventional wisdom--you are right. There is no evidence that he really is--and Lex taking him into Boran seems to demonstrate this point. But people still cling to this assumption.

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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 10:57 PM (EST)
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32. "Betrayal"
Interesting theory, but who did Richard Hatch ever betray? The only "betrayal" we had on two seasons of Survivor (until Brandon's action last week) was Colby "betraying" Jerri ... and only Jerri thought she had been betrayed; everyone else (except Amber) knew better.

Richard was true to Tagi ... and ALL THREE Tagi on the jury voted for him. Meanwhile, Jerri persuaded Alicia to vote for Tina instead of Colby, thus giving Tina the win.

Conclusion: who says betrayal doesn't hurt you?

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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-01, 00:06 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: Betrayal"
Oh, I agree. Richard Hatch never betrayed anybody. That was part of the genius of his strategy - and why I thought he deserved to win. My point was simply that on the boards we hypothesize that certain game strategies would create enough resentment to prevent that person from winning. This hypothesis led us to believe that Rich could not win Survivor. We were wrong. I'm simply saying that just because no one has won yet who has done some serious betrayals, doesn't make it impossible. Everybody betrays somebody at some point in the game, when you get right down to it. I don't think we can officially rule out anyone who betrays his/her team as a shoe-in loser. As we saw last week (and have seen many times before) there is absolutely no telling what people will do.
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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-01, 07:27 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Hindsight"
>Great Post, KB!
>First lets consider what we got
>right:
>
>Lex’s Torch
>
>Lex’s torch was a red herring;
>Icecat, Bungler and others were
>right. I don’t think we
>even saw that same shot
>in the show. We were
>right to speculate that Lex
>would not win immunity.

But he might THIS week, which is the tiebreaker week that they are all gunning for him, and will all vote for him, but can't so they vote for the person with the only votes on Boring, Tom. But Tom might vote for Lex, too, because of his "romance" with Teresa, but then who would they all target if Tom has joined them? Ethan? If he doesn't win immunity? Tom might betray Lex this week,but he CAN'T if Lex wins immunity. Would Tom betray Ethan and Mamakim. I don't think so. But I do think it's a Boron that goes.

>CBS Poll
>
>The CBS poll included Lex, Brandon,
>and Frank. Many of us
>concluded that this was also
>a red herring, leading us
>away from the real bootee.
>We were right.

This was so fishy to me, it smelled, well, like a red herring. And how does a red herring smell? Well, fishy.

NOTE: Discount any future CBS polls and well as Alicia and Sue's articles. They don't get to see ANYTHING before we do. They're guessing, too.

>Hidden by the Editing
>
>We speculated that those edited as
>targets would be safe. We
>were right. Lex was the
>target of the counter-attack, Teresa
>was previewed as the target
>of the witch hunt, Frank
>was a target as a
>strong Samburu and outcast. They
>were all safe.

This is the brilliant part of this show, the editing. What did Kelly call it? "I give major shout-outs to the editing team!" Well, me too, KKG!
But what does that tell us about THIS week? Well, Ethan and Lex had beaucoup face time. Brandon did, too. No Frank or Mamak. Some Teresa. Some Tom. And more of Kim P. than ever, but still not much to speak of.

>Preview Vidcaps
>
>Outfrontgirl pointed out that each week’s
>boot victim has been pictured
>in that weeks preview vidcaps.
>She was right. Kelly was
>pictured; Ethan was not.

This week we see Ethan up front and center and Mamakim. And Lex. But they CAN'T vote out Ethan this week, even if he does pass up the IC so Lex can be safe. BECAUSE HE HAS NO PRIOR VOTES. Same with Mamakim. In which case the Boring HAVE to target Frank, because he's the only one with a vote(one) and they, or at least, Brandon knows this. So tiebreaker time, the Sambooboos lose Frank in a tie but they can't, because they'll all vote for TOM, the guy with the votes.

HOWEVER if the Borings target Frank and Brandon just to be an ########, and he hates Frank, does too, well, it's bye bye Frank. But then the "We Are Family" theme of the NEXT episode doesn't apply. Does it? Or is it ironic? That Brandon has joined the Boron family?


>Now, were did we go wrong?
>
>
>Game Logic
>
>I think we screwed up because
>Lex screwed up. He let
>his paranoia get in the
>way of the logical
>strategy. Could we have predicted
>that? I’m not sure…
>It made much better sense for
>the Boran to vote off
>one more Samburu before they
>got rid of Kelly or
>Kim, but Lex went off
>the deep end…
>
Shakespeare said it in many ways. "What a noble mind is here o'erthrown."- Hamlet
"The Green Eyed Monster, jealousy" Othello, otherwise known as LEX.

>Immunity Winner
THIS could be the week the Lex's Skull Torch Vid Cap applied to.
>
>MB had the upper hand last
>week because he had good
>material to work with. No
>one could have predicted the
>double switch resulting from what
>I consider two strategic mistakes;
>Lex made a mistake that
>opened the door for Brandon,
>who responded with another mistake.

MB hid Lex's insanity and Brandon's brilliance.
..it
>made for interesting TV, but
>difficult to predict.
>
I'm still saying Tom goes this week.

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-01, 09:11 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Hindsight"
Nice summary KB!

The thing that really bugs me about all of this is the lack of game knowledge these players appear to have. It sure makes it hard to make predictions based on the way the game "should" be played when the participants dont seem to understand how it works! It isn't just Lex after all... I mean the stunt he pulled was stupid, but no more so than KimJ and Ethan following along with it. Someone needed to talk some sense into him, and now it should cost them... but who knows, the old Sambu's haven't shown a lot of skill in that area either.

Right now I would think Lex would have to be the most likely target with Brandon being a close second. Which probably means Frank or Tom are done this week

-ICB

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-01, 09:31 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Hindsight"
>CBS Poll
>
>The CBS poll included Lex, Brandon,
>and Frank. Many of us
>concluded that this was also
>a red herring, leading us
>away from the real bootee.
>We were right.
>
>Hidden by the Editing
>
>We speculated that those edited as
>targets would be safe. We
>were right. Lex was the
>target of the counter-attack, Teresa
>was previewed as the target
>of the witch hunt, Frank
>was a target as a
>strong Samburu and outcast. They
>were all safe.

It looks like the early favorites to be booted in E9 are Lex and Brandon, based on web site polls and the previews. Are both safe?

As for those featured in the preview, there's Tom, Brandon, KimP and Lex. Hard to find Frank anywhere.

Does Lex win immunity? MB had two primary targets for E9 - Lex and Brandon. Insider and previews seem to indicate that Lex is in the most danger. After all, we have Brandon basically laying out the storyline for the whole episode - explain himself to the Samburu, get back on the team and vote out Lex. Kinda spoils the suspense, doesn't it? It looks like the only way Lex can save himself is to win immunity.

Remember that MB will edit the previews based on what he has to work with - as Krautboy pointed out. I believe if Lex is indeed the next boot, MB would have editted the preview, and the Insider clips, to emphasize Brandon's (or someone else's)vulnerability.

If Lex does indeed win immunity, Tom is the logical choice to go. Looks like Tom is gonna get some special face time in the next episode with his "third eye."

One last point...OFG brought up an interesting point in another thread. For the past few weeks, we have seen an abundance of clips, both broadcast and on Insider, of Kelly's desire to vote out Lex. As we're all aware, the opposite occurred and Lex caused Kelly's eviction from the tribe. This week on Insider, we hear Brandon discussing his desire to boot Frank. OFG concluded, and I concur, that this could be a good indication that Frank not only outlasts, but participates in the boot, of Brandon.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-01, 10:00 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Hindsight"
Rose, ICB, and Munson. That's the idea...I think your on the right track; your starting to think like MB. Scary isn't it?

Krautboy

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 02:06 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Hindsight"
>Rose, ICB, and Munson. That's the
>idea...I think your on the
>right track; your starting to
>think like MB. Scary isn't
>it?

Well, I do totally admire him, and ALWAYS identified with him, I'm sorry to admit. He goes into dark places in the human pysche that few venture to explore. A TV show where the contestants are being starved to death?Given foul water? Subjected to a plaguge of bugs, not to mention the wild animals? Well, why not? It's GREAT TELEVISION!
And to borrow a phrase from a friend, MB is a DRAMA QUEEN! He likes anything that creates it, especially certain types of people, like Brandon,or Lex, or Richard or Lindsey or Jerri or Jeff Varner or Susan or Tom(because of his outrageousness), who are flamers. He knows he needs the steadier ones, too, like Ethan or Colby or Tina or Colleen or Rodger or Elizabeth, who are the non-flamers. They balance the show.
But right now the Flamers, Brandon and Lex are in total control,of the plot, if not the game, and next week when Lex witnesses the Samburu vote off TOM, all because of HIS(Lex's) stupidity and they are being reduced to a minority ALL BECAUSE OF HIM. He's going to go into total meltdown, which should be VERY dramatic, and very satisfying. I remember how HAPPY I was the day Jerri FINALLY got thrown off. I was in a good mood for days.
Lex's betrayal of his loyal follower, Kelly, well, it's worse than Jerri vs. Kel, but it's STILL unjust. And he'll pay for it and so will Brandon.
It's Tom next week. Then Lex. Then Brandon.
MB describes this as the most "satisfying Survivor ever" and I think he means that the villains get what's coming to them.
So who does that then leave? Ethan,Mamakim, Frank, Teresa and Kim P. as the final five, for sure. What happens at that point I can't even BEGIN to imagine, because one of those FINAL FIVE we don't even know, which is Kim P.
I predict we WILL see more of her than ever in the next three weeks. We'll be Kim Pee-ed to death.

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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 04:50 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Hindsight"
Rose,,
I was just reading your last post, and a thought occured to me. Lex and the Borans had no other choice than to boot Kelly this week. While she might not have thrown the vote to Lex at the tribal council, Lex's gut WAS CORRECT. Kelly was about to jump into the Samburu alliance. At the next TC, Lex would have been in the same position that he is now, and he knew it. As a matter of fact, Lex is in a little better position now, because of Brandons known hatred of Frank. All he has to do this week is to assure Brandon a place in the final four ahead of mama Kim, and Boran sails in easily. I know that Brandon said that he was going to vote for Samburu, but I just don't see that to be his wisest move.
Show facts to support this
1. At the merge, Brandon and Kim P talked about going there own way and to not have an alliance anymore.
2. Lex and Ethan where already prepared to dump MamaKim in an earlier episode, and obviously would be willing to do so again. espesialy fo a million dollars.
Naked
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fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 11:19 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Hindsight"
a thought
>occured to me. Lex
>and the Borans had no
>other choice than to boot
>Kelly this week. While she
>might not have thrown the
>vote to Lex at the
>tribal council, Lex's gut WAS
>CORRECT. Kelly was about to
>jump into the Samburu alliance.
>to vote for Samburu, but

In the last episode when first approached by LittleKim, Kelly most definitely said she would not turn. Now I believe she would have later, but at this point she had given Lex no indication that she would. It was only after Lex's little talk that Kelly went back to LittleKim. Lex shot himself.
Fyre

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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 01:07 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Hindsight"
Kelly would not have turned in Ep8, but in EP9, with 3 Samburu and 5 Boran, She would have. This leaves a 4 to 4 vote with a Boran leaving. Kelly said that she was going to turn in a couple of votes in SI, and her behavior was probably consistant with that. Lex saw this, and acted. I don't belive that Boran would have voted for her without strong evidance of a Betrayal coming.Kelly was a SNAKE, and Lex sucsesfully smoked her out.
Naked
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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 01:51 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Hindsight"
Yes and no. I've thought about this. The problem Lex was having really had no resolution short of immunity. If kelly and four Samburu wanted him out of the game, then regardless of who went out he's be targetted at number eight. The problem is that boran as a whole probably would have had a better shot keeping Kelly, even if Lex was destined to go down. But it may have all just been an unavoidable impasse.
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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 02:08 PM (EST)
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15. "COULD Ethan be next?"
This post points to a lot of evidence that Ethan could be going - face time, prominent in preview, etc. Also, if Lex wins immunity, there wasn't a noticable tom story last week to justify (in terms of spoiler editing theory) a Tom boot. Plus, I'm looking for the unpredicatble this season.

So, if I was on Samburu, the number one person I'd be wanting out of the game ASAP is Ethan, because he's the biggest immunity and all around threat. It seems likely, if he doesn't win this next immunity, it could be a very long time before he loses again - especially if he knows he needs immunity to stay in the game. In fact, this may be the last tribal council where he feels safe. the question is, how do you take him out?

Well, if you can feed on Boran paranoia (already successfully pulled off) and get them to split their votes, then you can take out ethan. Brandon has already created a scenario where Boran thinks samburu is split (and maybe they are.) We also see shots of KimP talkign to KimJ. Perhaps KimJ would feel safer with Frank and Teresa. Perhaps boran would count on Brandon. Perhaps somehow the rift can be deepened so Boran does not vote together again. then four votes would take out Ethan.

My point is, if the editing shows him going, we shouldn't consider it an impossibility.

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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 02:55 PM (EST)
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16. "Ethan won't be next"
Even if he loses the IC, I don't think it is very likely that Ethan goes next. He doen't have any votes against him. Tom has 3 and Lex has 6. With 8 players left, a tie is a likely result. The old S tribemembers should be targeting someone they know will lose a tiebreaker (Tom or Lex).
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 03:36 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Ethan won't be next"
I completely agree with Esquire. Though Ethan is the biggest threat for immunity right now, the Sambs are all smart enough to go with the sure thing, which is either Lex or Tom. Every member should know, or at least will know at some point or another that these two Boran's have votes, and they should be able to discern that Ethan does not. If they were to vote for Ethan, they would not be able to guarantee that they would vote him off anyway, simply because Frank has votes(whether they know this or not). At best, they might be forced to do the double tie breaker against Ethan, and I am not sure that any of them feels confident enough in their own ability to do that. The Samburus vote is almost assuredly going towards either Tom or Lex this episode, and as to which one may just depend on Immunity.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 03:49 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Ethan won't be next"
While I agree with MD and esquire--in defense of red, I think all he was saying was consider all the possibilities. He was suggestings that if Samburu could be sure that Boran was going to split their votes, Samburu could vote off Ethan (and get rid of the biggest immunity threat). Of course the problem with this theory is that there is no way to be sure Boran will really split their votes and if they say they are they are probably lying.

So in the end, if Samburu stick together, it will be Lex or Tom if Lex has immunity. But I think red was fine in exploring all possibilities. That one just seems too unlikely.

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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 04:17 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Ethan won't be next"
Did no one understand my post?

I am fully aware that the easiest way to take out a Boran is to go for Lex or Tom. I'm simply playing devil's advocate that there are other possibilities - and no, it isn't a split tie.

If Brandon appears to be Boran (when really he'll be voting with Samburu), it would appear to some wayward Boran (KimJ?) that the team with an advantage has an open slot. This wayward Boran may want to save him or herself by voting with Frank, Teresa, KimP to take out Lex or Tom. Then you're in a four person alliance, who you don't have to worry about turning on you the way Boran did on Kelly. The kicker is Samburu really will vote together, and they can take out whoever they like.

Lex, Ethan, Tom - Frank (or any Samburu)
KimJ - Lex or Tom
Brandon, KimP, Teresa, Frank - Ethan

The Case Against Ethan:

Face Time Increase

Prominence in Promo

Brandon claims he will side with Samburu. Samburu will be foolish not to take him back. SI specifically says Lex will be targetted. Therefore I deduce that it is unlikely Lex goes - Immunity? Next option Tom. But Tom had no story last week. So someone else?

POW shot implies KimP may be persuading KimJ of something - a ploy to have her vote with them? But if they vote with Brandon, they don't need KimJ's vote. But there could be a benefit to having her vote with them - specifically a split Boran vote.

Brandon's strategy seems to be, on some level, to confuse other players of his true loyalties. Otherwise, why wouldn't he tell his team of his plans if he does intend to side with them? I see one of the benefits of this strategy that people will make wrong assumptions about what the alliances are, and therefore may try to jump ship to save themselves. If Brandon looks like he's Boran, someone might see an open slot in Samburu (which currently has the advantage.) It's a prime setup.

Ethan is actually the biggest threat in the game right now.

I think, based on what we've seen so far, that someone surprising will be going.

Now, I'm not saying I'm married to this theory. I've just been seeing potential for Boran to split their vote due to general paranoia we've seen in the preview. If they do, then anything's possible. And since this thread point out evidence that Ethan could be going, I thought I'd throw out that it isnt' impossible.

After all, I was the first one to say that it was IMPOSSIBLE that a Boran would go last week.

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

12-10-01, 04:24 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Ethan won't be next"
red--

I think if you read my post right above yours, you will see that I did understand your post. Nevertheless, based on the uncertainty in trusting that someone like KimJ is telling the truth that she is voting with Samburu, I think Samburu would be very foolish to go after anyone but Tom or Lex. It could happen, but they seem too savy to take such a chance.

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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 04:49 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Ethan won't be next"
Sorry zzz, you posted while I was typing my response to the other two.

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 04:45 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Ethan won't be next"
Red, I totally hear you, and you are right it is most certainly a possibility. There are all kinds of possible scenarios that one could speculate about at this time, simply because we really do not have a lot of information right now. And to be honest, at this point, I would not be shocked about anything happening.

The only point I was trying to make was that if Samburu is smart they will not attempt to go for Ethan until the next TC. If they feel at all confident that the rest of Boran may not vote together, then they could go for Ethan, but based on the fact that they have all voted together up to this point, it would be tough for any of them to really believe that they will stop.

But if you are just stating possibilities and not what you think is going to happen, then by all means, I agree Ethan could very well be the target this week.

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diamond 2307 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 04:55 PM (EST)
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23. "editing"
I'm not going to get into the logic/strategy discussion, but I wanted to point out something about the editing. I think the editing of Ethan actually points away from a boot, at least not in the next episode. While getting facetime does often point to an iminent boot, sometimes people get it simply because it contributes to the storyline. Additionally, challenges always must be shown.

If you look at Ethan's facetime in Ep8, almost all of it is connected in some way with his challenge wins. The footage all had to be shown for continuity's sake. Here's what we saw Ethan doing:

*participating in and winning the RC
*preparing for the reward by gathering and discussing items to barter
*traveling on the truck to the village
*experiencing the reward
*returning to camp with gifts from the village
*discussing the reward in confessional
*participating in and winning the IC
*discussing the reward at tribal council

He was not shown talking in any other context. I can only remember one random shot (of him stirring a pot over the fire) that was not directly related to a challenge. In my opinion, if Ethan hadn't won the challenges, especially the RC, we would have seen much less of him (like in the previous episode), and there's no way we'd even be discussing the possibility of him getting booted. I think if he were going to be booted, we might have seen even more of him discussing strategy, discussing other people, and being discussed by others. MB only gave Ethan facetime because he was forced to by his challenge wins, not by his theoretical upcoming boot.

I may, of course, be wrong. I certainly hope not, though. I don't want to see Ethan booted anytime soon.

diamond

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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 05:02 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: editing"
I really think you're right about the editing. And I really think Lex goes. But I wanted to throw out an Ethan possibility on a thread that shows evidence of Ethan going but the says "but that's impossible." When you get down to it, Kelly had all the same evidence pointing to her boot, but we couldn't see the writing on the wall because we thought it was impossible.
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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 05:20 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Hindsight"
While at this point it may look obvious and/or logical that Lex goes, it is way too obvious and therefore, he doesn't. Although his alliance mates are probably pissed at him now for being so adamant about voting off Kelly, therby leaving them in a possible tie-breaker situation, they are too smart to vote Lex off in the heat of the moment. I believe the betrayal twist is a bit more complex than it appears on the suface.
Frank, Teresa and KimP are now miffed at Brandon for not voting off Lex. That is betrayal #1 and now Brandon realizes he needs to vote with the Boran. Now that Boran (Lex) realizes they were duped, may very well let Brandon know he is still in the fold, so long as he votes along with them. They tell him they are voting for Teresa. In reality, OB decides to vote for Brandon. The Sammies vote to oust Brandon (betrayal #2). The OB vote to oust Brandon (betrayal #3). Brandon casts the lone vote for T-bird.

I think the "unlikely date" will be Frank and Brandon.
I think KimP cries that voting is getting hard, as she really doesn't want to vote off Brandon, but now has no choice.

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drich61 558 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 07:03 PM (EST)
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28. "for sure not Brandon"
Samburu has finally come back from 2 down to be in control. They will not say Thanks but no Thanks to Brandon, maybe down the line but for sure not now. They will at the very least learn from Boran's mistakes.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-01, 05:31 PM (EST)
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26. "Can we be sure it could be a Boran?"
We've been given a lot of obvious clues that this week's pick is Boran...

- Brandon's final four comment and Insider statement
- Tom's third eye brings up health concerns
- Lex apologizing in preview looks like his actions will come back to haunt him.

Since we all know about Tom and Lex's previous votes, we didn't need MB to hit us over the head with the possibility that they're in precarious positions. Typically, when we've been hit over the head with potential victims, they've been safe.

This week's CBS poll question is about Lex, which points to him staying. Tom is the other obvious choice to go. I just don't think MB would make it this easy for us at this point in the game.

Maybe the betrayal referenced in the title ends up exposing another suballiance that leads to the ouster of a Samburu instead of a Boran.

I still can't dismiss that canned shot with Lex's torch and the immunity necklace. Does he bring about Teresa's demise a week after we expected?

Still trying to sort this out, but I feel like we're overlooking a key clue...I just wish I could figure out what it is...

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

12-10-01, 06:33 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Can we be sure it could be a Boran?"
I agree with this sentiment, but remember that sometimes MB makes it easy. Think back to after Carl was booted--no one got that one--the next boot was Linda--almost everyone got that one. Here it is an even a tougher pick than Linda because there are 2 possible targets--Lex and Tom.

On SI, Brandon says he will vote against Lext the next time. So our best "spoiler" points to Lex. That is why I think a lot of us are leaning toward Tom. The point is--we should not out-think ourselves. If it is not Tom or Lex, we will only get it right if we are plain lucky (or you assume everyone turns against Brandon--a possibility). There is just really nothing much else to go on. At this point, I am leaning toward Tom.

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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"

12-10-01, 07:29 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Can we be sure it could be a Boran?"
More devil's advocate:

If it isn't Lex or Tom, it would seem (barring my crazy how to take out Ethan strategy) that Samburu did not vote together. Which makes Frank a likely target.

But Frank wasn't even in the last episode, so I don't know.

Lex DOES seem too damn obvious - but he also has been edited up to a boot.

Is anyone besides me concerned about Tom being absent from the last show if he really is next to go?

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

12-10-01, 09:03 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Can we be sure it could be a Boran?"
red--

I don't think that is an absolute rule that a person gets a lot of face time the episode before the boot. More of a "rule" is that increased face time occurs the episode of the person's boot (and the other target)--not always the episode before.

MB is more interested in making each episode interesting than he is in following these "rules" people seem to think he has.

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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"

12-10-01, 09:22 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Can we be sure it could be a Boran?"
AMEN Brother zzz !!!! I am tired of hearing about face time in previous EP's. Is there any facts supporting the Face time theory? Has someone ever done a timing count?
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