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"*** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
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08-15-00, 05:17 PM (EST)
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"*** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Well, we need a weekly fact sheet of who goes, who stays and reasons there of so I nominate myself. Here goes...

Why they're sticking around
*****************************************************************
Kelly - reasons she stays

1. Her father made the comment that she is in all 13 episodes, likely he wouldn't state that unless he meant as a competitor and not just in the TC.
2. CBS is showing us alot of footage to suggest that Kelly gets the boot this week. CBS and MB, as always, would show us the opposite of what really happens.
3. Susan knows that she needs Kelly to maintain her position on the island as she cannot trust Rich.
4. Seen in the "rice eating" picture which shows 4 survivors (a possible (POSSIBLE) indication of the final 4 if the pic is from EP13. This is total speculation at best.

Rich - reasons he stays

1. He controls anywhere from 3-4 of the votes (him, Rudy & Sue or him, Rudy and Sean). 3 votes is all that is needed to make it to the final 4.
2. CBS and MB has been showing us alot of footage or Rich, almost basing the show around him. Most likely would not do this unless he makes it until the last show.
3. CBS and MB, until last show, have portrayed Rich as the evil mastermind behind the TA. This sets up him to get beat out in the finals as good will triumph over evil.
4. Possible, starting with EP11, that CBS will now start to portray Rich as good - showing that he has "changed during the course of the show" to a point where the audience roots for him, thus he may win the Million.
5. Seen in the "rice eating" picture which shows 4 survivors (a possible (POSSIBLE) indication of the final 4 if the pic is from EP13. This is total speculation at best.
6. The statement regarding his legal fees would indicate, if accurate, that he came in second place thus is after taxes.
7. One of the core 3 members of the alliance.

Rudy - reasons he stays

1. CBS and MB have been portraying him as the good character, thus he would win in the final 2 against evil (Rich).
2. He is aligned with Rich who controls 3-4 of the votes.
3. He has done poorly at the immunity challenges and is physically weaker than Sean and possibly the girls. The others would likely want to keep those who will not do well at the challenges around to better their chances of making the final 3.
4. Seen in the "rice eating" picture which shows 4 survivors (a possible (POSSIBLE) indication of the final 4 if the pic is from EP13. This is total speculation at best.
5. Is one of the core 3 members of the alliance.

Sean - reasons he stays

1. He HAS (I said HAS) been part of the Tagi Alliance this whole time (and if you still don't realize this then you need to wake up) and thus has a "deal" with Rich.
2. Rich controls 3-4 of the votes, including Sean's.
3. He is physically the strongest currently, thus he has the best chance of winning the Blair Witch Project immunity challenge (running).
4. Rich knows that his best chance of winning the Million is against Sean.
5. Sean's comments in the e-mail posted on this site suggest that he makes it further than EP12. ("Keep rooting for me").
6. The post on this site of an article reading that Sean won immunity "just in time to keep from being voted off" means that it must be in either EP12 or EP13, as he has not won immunity yet.

Sue - reasons she stays

1. She is aligned with Rich who controls 3-4 of the votes.
2. She is aligned with Kelly.
3. Seen in the "rice eating" picture which shows 4 survivors (a possible (POSSIBLE) indication of the final 4 if the pic is from EP13. This is total speculation at best.
4. One of the core 3 members of the alliance.
*****************************************************************

Now for the reasons why their outta here!!!

Kelly - reasons she's gone

1. She's the weak link to the alliance and Rich knows that she can not be trusted.
2. Rich would most likely not want a 2 versus 2 (Male/Female) final 4.
3. Rich knows that he would lose against her in the finals.
4. The alleged "argument" between her and Sue indicates that her alliance with Sue is lost.
5. The statement by her father in that she is in every episode may just be that she appears in every episode (EP13 as a TC member).
6. Was one of the two "discussed" about being booted in EP11.
7. Is a female and could fall victim to a penis alliance.

Rich - reasons he's gone

1. The "promo of the homo" arguing with Sue indicates that maybe he upsets her to the point that she aligns against him to vote him off, though she would need a third vote.
2. Kelly has stated that she cannot trust him and would likely want to vote him off.
3. Not much else, lets face it... he's not going anywhere.

Rudy - reasons he's gone

1. The rumor that someone (believed to be Rudy) was caught "stealing" food and even though there are only 6 days left, that would be enough to get at least three votes against you. As the cook Rudy has the best position of being the one, if true, of "stealing" the food.
2. CBS has been setting Rudy up as the winner all along so going with reverse psychology he loses.
3. He's just too obvious. the Rudy doll is just too over the top. Statements from Rudy about "not deserving the publicity" is again just too over the top. Other proof about the final 2 has proven unreliable (specifically the news report that Gervase and Rudy were the final 2).
4. Physically he has not done very well in the immunity challenges.

Sean - reasons he's gone

1. Kelly dislikes Sean the most out of the rest of the survivors and has voted for him the past few TC's.
2. Not seen in the "rice eating" picture which may (OR MAY NOT) be of the final 4 in EP13.
3. Was one of the two that were "discussed" during EP11 about being booted instead of Colleen.
4. Not part of the core 3 alliance members. Likely a non-core member (unless Rich goes for a penis alliance) goes this week.

Sue - reasons she's gone

1. Indication is of Kelly being booted and CBS usually leads us in the opposite direction, which would be Sue.
2. Is a female and will, I mean could, fall victim to a penis alliance.
3. Her hurt hand could be a sympathy vote or even a good excuse.

To sum up my findings and analysis, I would say the following...
1. The core 3 members of the alliance are likely to stay together until the end. This is not in the best interest of Richard but I believe that he does feel loyalty towards these people.
2. He could definitely go the penis alliance route but would need to do it this week as a 2 versus 2 (female/male) final 4 could be volatile.
3. Rich controls the game so who he wants to go will likely be the one.
4. Sean showed us last week where his alliance is when he invited Rich to breakfast.
5. Rich has the choice and it's this week... Sue, him and Rudy or a "PENIS ALLIANCE"!!! Notice that Kelly is not part of either scenerio.

So, unless something drastic happens (like Rudy being caught stealing food, Kelly makes the most logical sense. But again we are at Kelly and she has been shown as the likely to be ousted by the promos and we know that they are always wrong, thus we can disregard her. Rich of course would have a place in the final 2 wrapped up if he went the route of the penis alliance and would most likely have the best chance of winning the million (against Sean). If Rich realizes this and decides to do it, it is very possible that Sue is gone this week. With the three male votes Rich is hooked. He gets rid of Sue or Kelly this week (but since they keep showing Kelly it stands to reason that she stays) and barring immunity the other female is the first to go in EP13. Even if the remaining female wins the first immunity in EP13, Rich controls the voting enough, and is manipulative enough, to stay for the final 3 (a 2 male/1 female) final. Likely at this point whether it is 3 men or 2 and a female, Rich makes the final 2 either by winning immunity or by being the best chance for the one that does win immunity to be up against. So, it all comes down to this...

Is Rich willing to go the route of a "PENIS ALLIANCE" and screw over Sue this week? If yes then say goodbye to Sue, if not then Sean or Rudy is in trouble.

And CJ has spoken.

Please provide added analysis only. OK, you can tell me how good I am!!!

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... Dreamingofcolleen 08-15-00 1
 RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... cacoethos 08-15-00 2
   RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... zeako 08-15-00 3
       good Job CJ,,,i still have to read ... BadAs 08-15-00 4
 RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... Conspiracy Jim 08-16-00 5
   RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... Superman 08-16-00 6
       RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... JustMe 08-16-00 13
 RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... Conspiracy Jim 08-16-00 7
   RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... castaway 08-16-00 8
 RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... Conspiracy Jim 08-16-00 9
 RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... Conspiracy Jim 08-16-00 10
   RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... finner 08-16-00 12
       RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... castaway 08-16-00 15
 RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... Conspiracy Jim 08-16-00 11
   Access Hollywood question?? BadAs 08-16-00 14
 RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The pr... Conspiracy Jim 08-16-00 16

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Dreamingofcolleen 73 desperate attention whore postings
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08-15-00, 05:30 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Another point in saying that Susan stays is her multiple outfit changes with an injured hand and before without it in the mud RC amounts to more than a 3 day period.
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cacoethos 9 desperate attention whore postings
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08-15-00, 06:01 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
CJ-
no, nothing to add ... Just wanted to give a compliment where it's due ! Nice analysis !!
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zeako 99 desperate attention whore postings
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08-15-00, 06:31 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Great analysis. I think you should also credit Kelly as being a strong contender in this week's Blair Witch Challenge. She is probably about as fast as Sean. (He looked slow relative to Jenna in the Scavenger Hunt way back pre-merger).

I think Sue should also be lumped in with Rudy: not likely to win immunity in physical challenges.

Also, the title: "The End of an Alliance." I think this suggests that Sean and Kelly both stay.

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BadAs 372 desperate attention whore postings
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08-15-00, 06:40 PM (EST)
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4. "good Job CJ,,,i still have to read it all here is another tool"
http://home.fuse.net/mel/BootE12.htm

Ferretkiss from the SS.com board puts up a fact sheet once a week for evidence about people being BOOTED. It might help some of us

now going back to read your thoughts

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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 08:57 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Thanks for the praise people...

Some small bits of info to add...

1. It was posted on this site that the loser will be on Howard Stern, I believe Thursday. The overall analysis of this is that it could be anyone other than Rudy. Just one more reason to believe Rudy sticks.
2. Susan was? featured or will be featured on the weekly TV show - I think it's Entertainment Tonight, or something similar. We know from past experience that usually the one featured on Wednesday is the bootee and the one featured on Tuesday, as Sue was, sticks around. I do not believe that there will be anyone featured tonight, at least I have not heard so, meaning that that is another indicator pointing at Sue.
3. The title, though they have been b.s. for the past few shows, does indicate that one of the core 3 could be going. There is way too much evidence pointing that both Rudy and Rich stay, so again just one more thing pointing at Sue.

Guess what boys and girls... Conspiracy Jimbo is making his prediction right not, and believe it or not it is...


SUE!!!!!

Love and kisses (at least at the female posters),

CJ

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Superman 3157 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 09:25 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Excellent post C.J.! We really needed this on this board. One thought though:

>>Rich - reasons he's gone

1. The "promo of the homo" arguing with Sue indicates that maybe he upsets her to the point that she aligns against him to vote him off, though she would need a third vote.
2. Kelly has stated that she cannot trust him and would likely want to vote him off.
3. Not much else, lets face it... he's not going anywhere.<<

scenario: Rich plans to vote of Sean, so he tells Sue and the norm alliance.Rich tells sean they are voting Kelly. Rich ticks off Sue she decides to vote him off and alligns with Kelly to do so. Voting goes down like this :

Sean votes Kelly
Sue, Kelly vote Rich
Rudy, Rich vote Sean

Sean can't vote for himself Rich walks

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JustMe 17 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 01:17 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
>scenario: Rich plans to vote of
>Sean, so he tells Sue
>and the norm alliance.Rich tells
>sean they are voting Kelly.
>Rich ticks off Sue she
>decides to vote him off
>and alligns with Kelly to
>do so. Voting goes down
>like this :
>
>Sean votes Kelly
>Sue, Kelly vote Rich
>Rudy, Rich vote Sean
>
>Sean can't vote for himself Rich
>walks

But this wouldn't take forty minutes! Remember MB said there WOULD be a tie and it would take forty minutes to break. I do think Richard is going to be the one to get kicked off the island tonight though and I do think there will be a tie breaking vote. But I think the tie will be between Richard and whichever of the women does not win immunity.

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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 10:06 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Added now to my "PENIS ALLIANCE" theory, is the radio interview by Dirk which was ppsted on this site. His slip up, a very easy one to make, of the "I didn't think HE could do it", lends support.

We know that if Kelly was in the final 2 that she would likely win over any of the guys. Susan would be a toss up against anyone except Rudy.

Also knowing that the next immunity challenge involves running through the jungle the best chance would have to go to either Sean or Kelly. If my "PENIS ALLIANCE" is true then the best one to vote off would be Kelly rather than Sue (so as not to piss her off). If Kelly won immunity then Sue would have to be sacrificed this week with Kelly going next (barring immunity). Beware the evil "PENIS ALLIANCE".

Sue's gone!!!

CJ

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castaway 168 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 10:13 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Very good detective work CJ... wouldn't it be great to burn the SS board's pick of Sean for tonite? I'm thinking it might be Sue also, with the "Death of an Alliance" title. I think the Sue/Rich/Rudy one is the only one MB talks about right now on the show. Who else has a headache? Here pass the Excedrin around...
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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 10:49 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Adding continued evidence...

1. The statement from MB about the final 4 picture being 1/2 true continues to substantiate my theory of a "PENIS ALLIANCE" starting tonight. The only thing that that statement couls mean is that Sean and Rudy are in the final 4 and the likely way that they would get there is through a "PENIS ALLIANCE"!!!.

CJ

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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 10:59 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Continueing to substantiate my "PENIS ALLIANCE" theory is the statement by MB that the infamous final 4 pick was 1/2 true. This could only mean that Sean and Rudy are in the final 4 (of course since there are only 5 left this is a very good indication. Everyone keeps thinking Sean is the one to get the boot tonight but the evil "PENIS ALLIANCE" may just rear it's ugly HEAD, get it?... Penis... Head...?... Anyway, if the "PENIS ALLIANCE" holds true then Sean and Rudy are in the final 4 and a woman goes tonight. Kelly has been portrayed as the bootee so we need to look at Sue instead.

CJ

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finner 58 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 11:48 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
I have been saying Sue all along for many of the reasons you have.
I'd say the most obvious reason to me would be that Rich is in control and has to make a decision to appease the members of the penis alliance. If he were to vote Kelly off, there would be alot of tension as to who would be the next to go, and there may even be some counter alliance formed in the next episode to oust Rich. This backed with the "Kelly stays for all 13 episodes, plus the deceptive foreshadowing lead me to believe she stays.
If Rich votes Sue off, he will appease everybody in the penis alliance. First off, he will show that his tie is to them and not Sue. Secondly, and more importantly, he gives them a guaranteed target for next week. You can bet your stash that if Sue goes this week, Kelly will go next week(barring ammunity). If Sue goes, than the penis alliance will know that they have a 66.6% chance of being in the final.
Rich has made all the right decisions so far, and I can't see him making a huge blunder at this point in the game. Anyone besides Sue could cost him dearly.
I really hope this board picks Sue.
SS has been wrong three weeks in a row. Last week the site didn't go with the message board's pick so technically they were right, but the message board members have been wrong three weeks in a row. Lets all rally around Sue and up-one them this week.
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castaway 168 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 02:26 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Your words caught my eye finner... I agree when you said that "Rich is in control and has to make a decision to appease the members of the penis alliance. If he were to vote Kelly off, there would be alot of tension as to who would be the next to go..."

Sue is one tough broad & she sure wouldn't go down without a fight. The Sue over Kelly argument makes more sense all the time. They might want to get her bull-head out of there now & not have to deal with her till the next vote.

And man, you people are sure hard to keep up with!

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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 11:32 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
Well, this just sucks. After I went out on a limb and went with my gut and stated Sues gone I now find out that it's none other than Sean who gets the Access Holywood kiss of death. Now my fact sheet above disproves Rudy going this week. And there is still way too much evidence pointing to Kelly sticking around. That takes us down to Sue, Sean or Rich.
1. Rich controls the voting and would have to have someone betray him to get ousted this week. Not saying it's not possible, just unlikely. If it were to happen it would have to go down like this...

*** Rudy betrays Rich and votes him off along with Kelly and Sue, Rich is gone.

I can't go with this theory.

The Access Holywood kiss of death pulls me towards Sean but that would leave a 2 to 2 female/male final 4 and Rich who controls the voting would not want that.

Either Kelly or Sean would likely win this weeks imunity challenge since it involves running.

I am sticking with my gut and going with Sue. For that to happen it is likely that Kelly wins immunity and the "PENIS ALLIANCE" targets Sue. If it's not her then Sean's in trouble and Rich is looking at a final three of himself, Sue and Rudy. And lastly there is a slight chance if Rich getting backstabbed.

CJ predicts...

Sue gone 70%
Sean gone 20%
Rich gone 10%

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BadAs 372 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 02:05 PM (EST)
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14. "Access Hollywood question??"
Is access Hollywood a syndicated show? Does it air 5 to 7 times a week? Here in richmond I think it comes on the ABC affialte at like 2:am EST. I never watch the show. My concern if it is syndicated and not 5 days a week, the order of the shows may not be consistant with the viewer time slot for geographical regions> Just a thought!! More than likely nothing. But I have no imformation on Access Hollywood's broadcast schedules..

any Info is appreciated.

BA

Nice work so far CJ you da man!!

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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
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08-16-00, 03:40 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: *** SPOILER fact sheet - The proof of who goes***"
So, just to sumarize...

Who's going with Sue?

Anyone who agrees with me on Sue and the PENIS ALLIANCE please add to this post what evidence sways you the most.

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