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"BRANDON'S STRATEGY REVEALED!!!"
speedster22 11 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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12-07-01, 09:11 AM (EST)
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"BRANDON'S STRATEGY REVEALED!!!" |
Heya everyone, I'm baaaack! Thanks to pepe and others who welcomed me after I "exploded" a couple of times with my "kelly is the key" posts... I have to admit that I was in a bit of shell shock after kelly got the boot today and like I'm sure everyone else, I was sooooo pissed at brandon for voting for kelly. BUT upon further inspection, in reading the posts about whether it was good or bad that brandon voted the way he did, and seeing the SURVIVOR:INSIDER video, I had an early morning REVELATION. I think I know why brandon did what he did. So bear with me and let me know if you guys think this is legit...there are 3 key motivators we need to keep in mind as to why brandon voted the way he did...1) He DID NOT trust kelly (from when lindsey got ousted - kelly almost got brandon voted out) 2) He DISPISES frank. He can't stand the man and one of his main objectives is to get rid of him 3) His MAIN GOAL is to get to the final 4... he's not looking as far as winning... yet Okay, here goes. So those are the three big reasons as to why brandon voted with lex this time around instead of with kelly. Think about it people - by voting kelly out, he has pretty much guaranteed himself a final 4 position... plus he has A LOT more leverage when it comes to trying to get frank voted out. Think about next episode. Now it's lex, tom and frank that have the most votes against them. So as long as he can assure kim and theresa that that was his plan all along, either lex or tom is leaving next. Now here's WHY he voted along with lex... so brandon's main goal is going to be trying to get the rest of samburu to vote for TOM next episode!! Why?? Because THEN it will be sooooooo much easier for him to get everyone to vote out frank within the next two episodes. Everyone knows that tom loves frank and so it would be alot tougher for brandon to convince the rest of the boran tribe to vote for frank. BUT now that he has shown that he is loyal to lex, it will be that much easier for him to convince lex to vote for frank the next chance he gets. If brandon can get lex to get the rest of boran to vote for frank this coming episode as well, then frank will be loaded with votes against, as will lex so both of them would lose in a tiebreaker at 6 or 4 people, which again, improves his chances of cracking final four WITHOUT frank. Brandon will be able to use lex in a way that he wasn't sure he'd be able to use kelly. Now, why couldn't he do this with kelly?? Because he knows how smart kelly is! He realized after lindsey got booted EXACTLY what kelly and the rest of boran did and how they got lindsey to crack under pressure and how they lied to him and everyone making them think they were voting for brandon but instead they voted for lindsey. Brandon realized how devious they were and I think he realized that it was kelly that was behind it all! The fact that lex told clarence to his face that he was being voted out and that he simply told kelly that boran was voting free for all and he wasn't devious with her (he didn't lie to her and tell her to vote for someone on samburu), I think makes brandon believe that having lex on his side was much less risky for him than having kelly on his side. I think that brandon figured kelly would realize how smart he was and then plot to boot him possibly before he got to final four and he wasn't about to let that happen!!! So does this make sense for everyone?? The key is combining those three motivating factors together. If brandon didn't want to oust frank so much before himself and he trusted kelly more, then he probably would have gone with the rest of samburu. He is definitely risking a lot by doing what he did - hopefully lil kim and theresa will trust him and samburu will stay together for the next booting. Unfortunately for brandon, the fact that I figured this out probably means that brandon won't be winning the million dollars. I don't think that burnett would actually let brandon's plan be so obvious without it somehow coming to pieces. But I think he'll at least make it to final four which was his main goal in ousting kelly anyway. In brandon's ideal world, I think this is how the booting would occur... 1) Tom or lex (B will probably want TOM out to start lobbying for frank's booting) 2) Ethan or lex (again, ethan is an IC threat, and if he doesn't win immunity, the others have a big enough advantage to oust him even though he doesn't have any votes prior -this may be their only chance at ousting ethan) 3) FRANK (if lex is still around, then frank is for sure gone -lex and mama kim will have no choice but to follow and I'm sure lex would convince mama kim to vote for frank thinking brandon was going to go with him later on) 4) Lex or mamakim or theresa -he's where it's tricky... I think brandon would try to get mamakim voted off, but theresa and lil kim may want lex voted off. Brandon could possibly vote with lex and mk and vote off theresa so that lil kim would be for sure on his side -for her survival... so let's say theresa was voted off 5) lex... would finally go (in brandon's ideal world) here because of his prior votes (and barring his winning immunity) Brandon would stay true to his alliance with lilkim 6) mamakim (barring IC win) 7) It would be lilkim and brandon facing off for the win - I honestly think it if came down to this that brandon would win. Even though he was devious, the only way lil kim would have made it would have been because of brandon's deviousness. The jury members would respect that. Do I actually think this would happen? I seriously doubt it. There is too much that could happen for it not to turn out this way. But I have to say I was impressed with the episode and it makes the show much more interesting not to have a pagonging of one tribe. Okay, this is way too long again so I'll finish at that. Any thoughts would be appreciated -even if they are to discredit everything I wrote!
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Skinman 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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12-07-01, 09:55 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: BRANDON'S STRATEGY REVEALED!!!" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-07-01 AT 10:06 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 12-07-01 AT 10:00 AM (EST) I think it is much simpler than that. 1. Brandon said he wanted to "guarantee his final four position". Lex told him he would be number 5. 2 The way to get to number 4 would be to get rid of a Boran. Any Boran. Hence Kelly. Now its 4 on 4 again. 3 Why not Lex you ask? Well, I will tell you. If he got rid of Lex, then the only Boran with votes against for sure, would be Tom. If Tom would stumble into a IC win(EPMB would have to have a spitting contest, but it could happen) then the Borans could vote against Frank and win easily. I think Brandi knows the votes against. So with 2 Borans with votes against(Tom 3 and Lex 6) to choose from next time, its a lock for a Sambooboo win. 4 EPMB showed us Kim Pee in the previews being upset. MISDIRECTION AGAIN!! I sure Brandi and Miss Pee will kiss and make-up. Theresa is going to be the hard sell to trust Brandi(but, with her comes Frank). Brandi might not be the smartest. But since he does nothing but sit around all day. He eventually figures this stuff out. As for the final 2 I think that it all comes down to the last 3 IC's(any or the 4 Sambooboo's for sure and maybe Ethan can go on a IC run) Just my humble opinion
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-07-01, 10:05 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: BRANDON'S STRATEGY REVEALED!!!" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-07-01 AT 10:07 AM (EST)>3 Why not Lex you ask? > Well, I will tell >you. If he got >rid of Lex, then the >only Boran with votes against >for sure, would be Tom. This isn't true... Kelly would have survived but now have 4 previous votes. >4 EPMB showed us Kim Pee >in the previews being upset. > MISDIRECTION AGAIN!! I >sure Brandi and Miss Pee >will kiss and make-up. >Theresa is going to be >the hard sell to trust >Brandi(but, with her comes Frank). You mean like last week's preview misdirection that Lex would go on a big witchhunt this week??? ....obviously sometimes Burnett shows it as it is. -SB
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-07-01, 10:21 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: BRANDON'S STRATEGY REVEALED!!!" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-07-01 AT 10:24 AM (EST)I didn't see you come right out and STATE IT, but in this week's Insider clips, the full tribal Council voting is shown. In there Brandon CLEARLY states that his plan is to vote for Kelly this week and then join back up with the other three Sanburu next week, vote out Lex, and ride to the Final Four with the other Samburu. He also adds he's not sure if his tribe will "ever forgive him" so even if they were told of the plan, clearly it's not something of which they approved. Lastly he closes by telling Kelly "something like sorry I had to do this, but you played me when you were at our camp" (apparently a reference to th eLindsey vote thing.) So to recap, all the above in right in Brandon vote commentary, only Burnett EDITED IT to remove the part about his future plans and his question about whether the Samburus would forgive him. -SB
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Skinman 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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12-07-01, 11:51 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: BRANDON'S STRATEGY REVEALED!!!" |
Thanks for the insider clip info. I had no idea. I didn't see it and hadn't read about it yet. Plus I just re-read Speedsters post. I read too fast over the " brandon's main goal is going to be trying to get the rest of samburu to vote for TOM next", my bad. My appologies to Speedster. But speaking from an non-insider position, I think that the winning of T-Birds trust will be a big part of the story next week. Plus I think that Brandi thinks that Lex must go before Tom.
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speedster22 11 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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12-07-01, 11:20 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: BRANDON'S STRATEGY REVEALED!!!" |
Hopefully this will answer dayton's question about why brandon did what he did, but I think brandon KNEW that he was in a power position (he said so himself on the show) and he decided to use this to give himself even more leverage on who would stay and who would go for the next boots. Survivor blows - I did see the Survivor Insider clip of brandon at tribal council. I REALLY think the biggest reason as to why he wanted to vote out kelly before lex was because he DIDN'T trust kelly AND because he really wanted to vote out frank BEFORE it got down to the final four. He KNEW that he would have Lex in his back pocket to help the borans sway their votes to frank, whereas with kelly, he wasn't sure she wouldn't stab him in the back. From the comments coming from Kelly's early show appearance and her chat, it's evident that brandon really worked a number on lex from spending so much time with him on watch. And from the show it's again obvious that kelly was communicating more with kimp than with brandon. In that sense as well, because lex approached brandon BEFORE kelly approached kimp, brandon probably felt he wasn't really betraying kelly, he was holding up his promise to lex. And he probably felt okay about deceiving the rest of samburu because he didn't ACTUALLY vote a samburu off so in his mind, he wasn't betraying ANY of the old samburu. Does that make sense?? I hope so!! LOL Of course, because he has made an aggressive strategic move here, it really could bite him in the ass and kimp may lose trust in him and be swayed to vote him off at a later date because he kept his vote a secret this time. But I think that would only happen if Lex realizes what brandon did to him and started spreading gossip to the rest about brandon. Which I don't think will happen.
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speedster22 11 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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12-07-01, 11:27 PM (EST)
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9. "One more thing..." |
One more thing - I do think that brandon is looking past the final four and for him, the longer lex stays the better. This way teresa will still be scared that lex will find out about her vote and so she would be less apt to try to make a move against brandon... plus he knows once old boran is a minority, lex will be forced to follow him or else risk being booted (lex is definitely NOT close to kimp, teresa or frank). And although brandon is looking past the final four, I think that in his mind his decision has practically guaranteed him a final four (as long as he can get back on kimp and teresa's good side). If he thought voting lex out would have guaranteed him a final four, he would have done it.
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drich61 558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-08-01, 08:23 AM (EST)
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10. "NOT 1, BUT 5" |
Thinking up until 8:45PM on Thursday evening was that it would take a miracle to get one Boran defection. Brandon single handedly got not 1 Boran defection, but got 5 Boran defections. All nine votes went to Boran, not one to Samburu. He has handed 1 of his 3 remaining tribe members one million dollars, because he has effectively taken himself out of that possibility. There will be at least 4 probably 5 Boran members on the jury that will blame him for being there, not their own stupidity. Old Samburu should be worshipping the ground this guy walks on, but they appear to react just as stupidly as the members of Boran are. He accomplished the impossible this week, and deserves to win this more than anyone ever has, and I would guess more than anyone ever will again. For having played so remarkable stupid, not a single one of Boran deserves to even get close to the million. Their downfall did not start here in this last episode, but all the way back in the first. Why did Lex think the rat had to be someone on Boran and not Samburu? I think Boran can thank Tom for that one, his earlier votes for Clarence did not follow leader Lex's orders. "A tribe member breaks down in tears over a critical decision that needs to be made." The only person which has a decision to make is Brandon. In his mind he has just given his team the win, at enormus cost to himself. What does he see from them in return? Anger and outrage, and mock guns pointed at him. So he has to decide which team wins, IMO neither deserves it. When he "breaks down" I think KimP and Teresa are the ones who go to him, and he finally gets to explain what he did. He explains he was the one that pushed Lex in the direction of thinking Kelly was the rat. He could not risk telling Old Samburu anything for fear of something being overheard, and having everything fall apart. It finally dawns in their little minds that with Brandon they are in control of this game, and without him they were and are out. If Old Samburu have any honor at all, they should promise Brandon to never vote him out for what he has done for them. We shall see just how honorable Frank and Teresa really are, and if their team loyalty run anywhere near as deep as Brandon's.
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fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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12-08-01, 10:11 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: NOT 1, BUT 5" |
The only problem with this reasoning is that Samburu would have had no votes whether he voted for Kelly or not. He did not accomplish the impossible. He just went throught with the rest of the Samburu, the enormous hole Lex's stupidity opened up. Yes, it may not have happened without Kim's persuasion, and Brandon's devious conversation with Lex. However, it boils down to Lex not Brandon. Also, I highly doubt Brandon made this decision for the team. As I pointed out above the TEAM did not need it. Brandon did it to give him more options in the long run. Possibly use of Lex or Ethan and get rid of Frank. I think he out reasoned himself,and the group plan was the best plan. Fyre
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drich61 558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-08-01, 11:40 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: NOT 1, BUT 5" |
OK, now lets assume he would have gone with Samburu and voted out Lex this time. We get to final 5, old Sam plus Kelly. Whom do you see Frank, Teresa, and KimP seeing as their savior, Brandon or Kelly? RIGHT!!! Brandon is gone at this point as the weakest link. His only shot at avoiding this was to get rid of her NOW. Lex can be gotten at any point.
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fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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12-08-01, 03:03 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: NOT 1, BUT 5" |
My point was that Brandon did not do the impossible, and that he was not doing the best for the team. Not that I would expect him to, there is only one true winner. Regarding who Frank, Teresa, Kim, and Brandon would see as their savior, if Frank and Teresa already have Kim on their side they would not need a savior. Fyre
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Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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12-08-01, 09:39 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: BRANDON'S STRATEGY REVEALED!!!" |
>Now here's WHY he voted along >with lex... so brandon's main >goal is going to be >trying to get the rest >of samburu to vote for >TOM next episode!! Why?? Because >THEN it will be sooooooo >much easier for him to >get everyone to vote out >frank within the next two >episodes. The main problem I see is this: next week Brandon targets Tom at TC with Samburu. He either tells Lex that he is not voting with Boran (unlikely) because Boran would then target him with their votes. Therefore, he must lie to Boran and convince them to vote for Frank as he states he will. At TC, Tom is voted out at the tiebreaker. So with the Boran down three men to four, Brandon wants them to vote for Frank so he will be ousted promising that he also will vote for Frank and hence Frank would be gone. Brandon just lied to them the week before, so why would they believe him? Granted, desperation makes people behave in unlikely ways but it's more likely that Boran will believe that Brandon is lying to keep votes away from himself then target Brandon just out of spite. MamaKim might also go to Teresa/Frank and tell them of Brandon's plan. If Brandon switches back to Samburu, he is stuck with Frank at least for a while. The fatal flaw in all of this is KimP's loyalty. I suspect Brandon didn't tell KimP about his voting with Boran because she would be more convincing with Kelly telling the truth rather than lying. True and smart except for one thing. KimP liked Kelly and pulled her to Samburu with an honest proposal. Then her friend Brandon screwed over Kelly. Even after telling KimP why he did it, I suspect KimP will resent being used this way and never completely trust Brandon again. Will Samburu take him back? Absolutely they have no choice. But when Brandon wants to take out Frank early, I could definitely see KimP having problems with it and possibly going to Teresa due to trust issues with Brandon. One final thought: I have been assuming that the betrayal in the next episode was Brandon's of Boran. However, it's possible that Brandon promises Samburu to vote with them next TC then decides to stick with Boran. It doesn't seem logical except Brandon reads people pretty well. If he picks up signals that old Samburu does not trust him at all and have seething anger beneath the surface (and I think the other 3 would be pretty easy to read), he may decide that sticking with Lex and co. and trying to weasel his way to final four is a better idea. I don't think that this will happen but throwing another log on the fire.
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MattyMax 515 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-08-01, 03:20 PM (EST)
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19. "Simplicity" |
I think brandon's voting strategy was simple.1. If he voted for Lex, then there would be 3 boran left and 5 samburu, because Kelly's vote for lex would bring Kelly into the Sambaru fold. 2. By voting for kelly, Brandon assured that he would only have to compete with 3 other Sambaru for the million, instead of 4 other Sambaru. Brandon voted for Kelly to keep his team small, and now sambaru has the advantage of previous votes, too. I think it was very well played by Brandon. ~Matty
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Seyz 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-08-01, 03:54 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: I still Think KimP and Brandon will Stick Together." |
Also has anyone realized that S3 has been all about Samburu from beginning to end. They're the ones who have all the strategy, storylines, smarts. The Borans just haven't been as interesting.
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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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12-09-01, 01:20 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: ... which is why" |
I agree with you Pepe. I don't know if the Boran who will breach the Samburu gap will be Ethan or not, but I think that when they get down to 4 samburas and a Boran, then the Boran will stay, and have a good shot at the money. The more that I think about it though, Ethan would be a horrible choice for either side to bring on, because he is so much more liked than any Samburus, and can win an IC against anyone. A better choice for the last Boran would be Lex. He is despised by all, and even if he wins IC has NO CHANCE at all of winning. MamaKim would also be a better choice than Ethan. Naked
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fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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12-09-01, 12:40 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: ... which is why" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-09-01 AT 12:43 PM (EST)>when they get down to >4 samburas and a Boran, >then the Boran will stay, >and have a good shot >at the money. The more >that I think about it >though, Ethan would be a >horrible choice for either side >to bring on, because he >is so much more liked >than any Samburus, and can >win an IC against anyone. >A better choice for the >last Boran would be Lex. >He is despised by all, >and even if he wins >IC has NO CHANCE at >all of winning. MamaKim would >also be a better choice >than Ethan. > Naked I agree wholeheartedly. This is what I have said in previous topics. It will come down to a Boran. If Tom or MammaKim, Brandon is toast. If Ethan, it is possible he will defect. However, if they were already planning to oust Kim if Kelly had not gone then I think he will stick with Frank and T. Lex will not have a chance if Frank and T think he will side with Brandon. They will get rid of him at the sixth positition if possible. That leaves Brandons best choice of a fifth as Lex or Ethan. Neither a good choice. Kelly would have been much better. Sorry could not resist. Fyre.
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logicthinker 0 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "New Member"
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12-10-01, 02:08 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: I still Think KimP and Brandon will Stick Together." |
Exactly, exactly, exactly. It does fit with the "We are family" title. And if Brandon plays it right, which he did in this episode, then he guarantees him the final four and beyond. He has to know that he won't get past fifth place if he stays with Boran. So play Dr. Sean and go along with Lex for a time. Surprise, its now four on four now sucker. You can just hear the conversation now. "Oh, Lex, Let's vote for Frank, he's the biggest threat!" "Good idea, Brandon." Then Brandon reverts back to the "family". He doubly wins. Four votes for Frank for the final four vote and they oust Lex/Tom and then pagong the rest of the Borans. If he can hold the samburus together as a voting block for a short time ten its should be all cool. It should be a good TC just to watch one smug person take the fall.
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speedster22 11 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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12-12-01, 04:57 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: I still Think KimP and Brandon will Stick Together." |
I have to say that I agree with SEYZ's logic here, until point 5 where it says that the borans are going to be pagonged. Because of the rift between frank and the original mallrats (brandon/kimp) I really think that atleast one boran will make it to the final four. The whole unloading the votes on frank idea I thi sounds logical and because brandon has such power with the borans now, they will probably go with any suggestion by brandon as to who to vote off. Obviously because brandon is supposedly a part of the Boran alliance, the borans are definitely NOT going to vote for brandon or kimp, which leaves t and frank and frank is definitely a more obvious immunity threat and obviously lex and the borans won't realize about t's vote against lex for awhile yet. this makes sense about the betrayal in the next episode. I think brandon will betray lex and his "new" boran alliance. Which might piss off lex... BUT lex doesn't realize that brandon has lied to him about kelly, so he STILL thinks that kelly voted for him... meaning lex might be more apt to forgive brandon for voting off a boran... meaning lex would definitely become an asset to the samburus and definitely more a tool to eventually VOTE OFF FRANK before the final four! I think the samburu will stick together until the final six and THEN that is where it'll be interesting. Will brandon and kimp try to get lex to vote for frank with a final six? And would frank and t realize this and try to get mamakim to vote for lex with them??? Who would have more votes against by this time - lex or frank??? THIS game is finally getting interesting!!! I have to admit Kelly's ousting had really gotten me more into the whole spoiling mood.
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