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scorpion60 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 12-06-01, 05:20 AM (EST) "The Turning Point?" LAST EDITED ON 12-06-01 AT 03:19 PM (EST) We hear a lot of talk on Survivor. People say lots of nasty things about a lot of people, helped along by the selective editing of MB (EPM to some of you). The selective editing serves 2 purposes: to tell a story, or to mislead the viewer. But it's interesting to compare what tribesmembers say and how MB portrays them with how they actually vote when the time comes. As the saying goes, "put your money where your mouth is". Here are 4 examples from the CBS Survivor webpage (latest new episode recap): 1. "Brandon sheds alliegiances"and "distancing himself from comrade Kim" result? Brandon voted WITH comrade Kim to boot Clarence. 2. "Feeling that Lex's actions were questionable, Kelly stated, 'I like Clarence. He's really grown on me. He noticed he was rubbing people the wrong way and changed his ways. I think he's funny and part of the group, unlike crazy outcast Frank.'" result? Clarence isn't part of the group anymore. Kelly joined with alliance buddies Lex, Tom, Ethan, Mama Kim(?)(among others) to vote Clarence off. 3. Tom: "I am ashamed to vote off anyone but Brandon at this next venture." result? Tom, you should be ashamed. Tom voted with his alliance buddies Lex, Ethan, Kelly, Mama Kim(?)(among others) to vote off somebody NOT named Brandon (Clarence) Yes, tribesmembers lie and mislead not only each other, but also the viewers when talking alone to the camera, helped along by MB's prodding (edited out) questioning and selective editing of answers. Say 98% good things about Lex and (when prodded) 2% juicy dirt, and guess what makes the show? The juicy dirt, of course. Sure seems like ol' Lex is in trouble now, huh? Kelly dissed him, and next episode he's on a "witch hunt". So which is MB doing now, telling a story or misleading us? OK, time for number 4: 4. "Taking advantage of the chaos within the newly merged tribe, Lex quickly moved to oust Clarence from the game." result? It worked. He got the support from all the other Original Boran, plus 3 of the 4 Original Samburu. Lex may not have orchestrated the Samburu votes, but he still seems able to get Boran unified. The moral of the story is to watch how people vote when it comes time to "put your money where your mouth is". What does that mean from here on out? I'll be talking about the votes in a minute, but first let's look at tribal dynamics. Why is this post titled "The Turning Point"? I'm getting to that. The traditional voting pattern in Survivor, as somebody pointed out last year on one of the web pages, is weak-strong-weak-strong. What this means is that first you vote off the weak-loners and misfits (B.B, Sonja, Kel, Diane, etc.). This can be predictable at first, then less so as you approach the merge. You can also get splits within the tribe, as with Jerri and Amber trying to flip Colby and Silas trying to be a Colby wild card between the older Samburu and the Mall Rats. Then it gets fun. I've always thought that post-merge is the best part of Survivor. The numbers are more manageable, the alliegances clearer, and agendas defined. Hang on, people, it's just starting to get interesting! So immediately pre-merge and post-merge go the strong-physical threats-(that S1 guy...forgot his name, Gervase when they could, and some wanted Colby out but couldn't) and the strong leader types(Gretchen, Jerri). Although some people often overstate the physical threats. Tina and Keith may not have made the Final 3 if they had booted Colby instead of Rodger and Elizabeth. Don't cut off your nose to spite your face. Don't prematurely break up your alliance to boot a physical threat. Richard in S1 wanted to boot Kelly Wigglesworth when 6 were left, but she started her winning streak and lasted. Had she been booted, Richard still had a 3-2 Tagi edge after that. The lesson is either to not boot the physical threat too soon if he/she is in your alliance, or don't ally with the physical threat to begin with. The latter route is what the Original Boran (OB) took. Clarence was never "in" the OB alliance. Lex, Tom, Ethan, Kelly, and Mama Kim(?) never needed him. As for the strong leaders, it mostly refers to targeting the leader of the opposing alliance (Gretchen) and booting her to break the opposing alliance's power, which ties directly into the next (3rd) step. You vote off the weak again. This means breaking the opposing alliance (if any) apart once you have the upper hand and picking off the stragglers. Ask the sitting ducks, Gervase and Colleen. Ask Rodger and Elizabeth. Soon you'll be able to ask Brandon and Kim P., unless the tables are turned, then you can ask Lex and Tom. That's the turning point. Here's how I see the original tribes and alliances: Original Samburu: Frank & Teresa Brandon & Kim P. It's the remnants of the Older Samburu and the Mall Rats. Nothing new there, nor should there be, although Frank and Teresa split their votes this last time. Perhaps Frank is becoming the ultimate straggler, or perhaps Teresa just kept her promise to Clarence (during the IC) not to vote him off. Original Boran: Lex & Tom & Ethan & Kelly & Mama Kim(?) OB is strong. Kelly has made comments, Mama Kim is friendly with Teresa, but their votes are solid. Mama Kim may perceive herself as peripheral and be willing to listen to Teresa; Kelly less so. Lex, Tom, and Ethan are the OB core....maybe Kelly too, she may be cemented in there stronger than we think. If Kelly's smart, and she seems to be, she will ride the OB wave to the Final 4 and make her move then, when the alliance (like all alliances) stands alone and is forced to cannibalize itself. If she's smart, she's already set up a sub-alliance within OB for that point. You only need that for ep13, when 4 are left. When 3 are left, even sub-alliances don't matter. You either win immunity and pick your (unlikeable) opponent to drag along into the jury vote, or you hope you are unlikeable enough to get dragged into the jury vote but likeable enough to beat the one who got immunity. Got all that? So this week may be the turning point. Lex, Tom, Ethan, and Kelly seem solid. Mama Kim may see herself as a 5th wheel and vulnerable, thus listening to offers from her new friend Teresa. For OB(LTEK) to lose this week, Teresa must do 2 difficult things. 1. unify the Older Samburus and the Mall Rats into a single alliance 2. get Mama Kim to defect to the unified Samburu alliance Teresa seems the initiator at this point in Samburu. It's all on her shoulders. If she succeeds, the double pairs of fueding Samburu remnants (+Mama Kim) ride to the Final 5, where Mama Kim may be the wild card. I would expect her to then vote with Teresa, and boot Brandon and Kim P (as long as neither wins immunity in ep13) in ep12 & ep13. That puts Frank, Teresa, and Mama Kim in the Final 3. After that, it's an easy guess. Whoever wins immunity in the last episode drags Frank to the jury vote and wins. If Frank gets immunity, I don't know who he'll take to the jury with him but he'll still lose. Bottom line, if Teresa succeeds in forging an alliance this week, either she or Mama Kim will win. But if Teresa fails........ Lex is still the man in OB. Lex, Tom, Ethan, and even (I think) Kelly seem solid. If Mama Kim stays loyal to OB this week, then next week OB has 4 (+ Mama Kim) to Samburu's remaining 3. Mama Kim could still bolt that next week and bolt Lex or Tom on tiebreaker votes. If not, then it's OB 4 (+ Mama Kim) OS 2. Then it's all over. Pick off the stragglers, lose Mama Kim, and OB(LTEK) make the Final 4. Someone mentioned a possible spoiler somewhere that had Brandon and Kim P. going soon. That would fit this scenario. So then we have the OB Final 4. Not a 3-2, then 3-1 deal like the Samburu scenario, this one has a true core of 4. Who to boot? Where's the sub-alliance? Tom has 2 previous votes against him; Lex has one. This may change in the coming weeks. The sub-alliance may depend on this, or may already be formed (Colby said he & Tina had a sub-alliance from the start)(how many did he have? more than 1? contingency sub-alliances?). This is when Kelly should make her move, not before. Repeat, NOT BEFORE. Who goes? I honestly don't know. Prevailing wisdom says Lex booted by other 3 or Kelly booted by other 3. Immunity may play a role. Likeability in the jury (or lack thereof) may play a role. I'm guessing either way, Tom and Ethan make it to the Final 3 with either Lex or Kelly. Then unless Ethan wins the last immunity, he is booted for being to likeable, and Tom goes to the jury vote with either Kelly or Lex. Tom wins. Goat farmer is the ultimate survivor. Ethan may be likeable enough that he goes 1 episode earlier, when 4 are left. LEK in Final 3. Then maybe Tom doesn't go to the jury unless he wins immunity. Lex and Kelly in Final 2. Then maybe what's up this week will make sense. Will Lex's "witch hunt" affect his jury vote? If so, and if Kelly doesn't jump too soon and stab anyone in the back, she may win it all. But the key is Kelly must stay loyal to OB. Forget that stuff in her bio about manipulating men. Forget her comments last week. Forget about her jumping ship. Kelly has voted loyally up to now, and if she wants to win she'll stay loyal. She knows that. She's been flexible enough to play a different kind of game than her bio suggested. It's not who stabs the most, but who stabs the best. Timing is everything. Sometimes it's best not to stab at all, or once at most. So that's where the Turning Point Theory takes us. If Teresa succeeds this week, she or Mama Kim will win. If Teresa fails, Tom or Kelly will win. Mind you, it's only a theory, based on educated guesses. But there's more predictability post-merge than you would think, so fear not! Now as for the votes......... Previous votes against (of the remaining Survivors): Tom has 3 votes against (Lindsey, Kim P., Brandon in ep6) Lex has 2 votes against (Clarence, Teresa in ep7) Frank has 1 vote against (Silas in ep5) These will only come into play when 8 are left(ep9), 6 are left(ep11) and maybe when 4 are left(ep13). There will be more votes before then, also. Now let's see of those, how many votes are against remaining survivors BY remaining survivors: Tom was voted against by Kim P. and Brandon Lex was voted against by Teresa Frank's clear The only remaining survivor who has ever voted against Lex is Teresa (Clarence is gone), yet based on that one vote and the babblings of Jeff Probst on the "Next time on Survivor" preview, everyone wants to write Lex's epitaph. That may possibly be premature. In the past, this "picking off the stragglers" phase has been so predictable that MB and Probst have been at their most misleading at this time. So fear not, those who think things are too unpredictable. Not only may they be predictable, but so much so that MB once agains feels he must put the misdirection campaign into overdrive. Let's now look at who each remaining survivor has voted for: Lex-Diane, Jessie, Lindsey, Clarence Tom-Clarence twice(not booted), Lindsey, Clarence Ethan-Diane, Jessie, Silas, Clarence Kelly-Jessie, Lindsey, Clarence Mama Kim-Diane, Jessie, Silas, Clarence Teresa-Lindsey(not booted), Silas(not booted), Silas, Lex (not booted) Frank-Lindsey(not booted), Silas(not booted), Silas, Clarence Brandon-Carl, Linda, Tom(not booted), Clarence Kim P.-Carl, Linda, Tom(not booted), Clarence What does this show? OB has stayed true to the party line line, except for Tom, and he just voted for Clarence to "send him a message", and to send him some tiebreaker votes. As for OS, no unity. They were fueding (we knew that), the old people lost (we knew that, too), and then the swap, followed by the merge. Brandon and Kim P. have always voted together, and Teresa hasn't voted with them yet, although her latest vote may be due to her promise to Clarence. Teresa had better vote with Brandon and Kim P. soon....and drag Frank along AND recruit Mama Kim....or it's all over. Another interesting thing is that the OB core (LTEK) has always had its way, successfully booting whoever they targeted. 100%. That's the power of a unified alliance. If you're lucky enough to be in one, don't be a fool and leave it before the Final 4 (or 5, if you can work a 3 on 2). As they say, "put your money where your mouth is". LTEK (and Mama Kim) have always voted together. Regardless of what they say, LTEK looks solid. Mama Kim looks solid so far as well, but somebody has to be the 5th wheel, and she's the most likely candidate. She may see it and bolt. She may see it and stay, liking her chances (of a sub-alliance)in the unified OB better than the disorganized OS mess.....or she may never see it coming, thinking she is safer than Kelly. We'll see. The next 2 episodes, especially, the next, is the turning point, and it all hinges on Mama Kim. The CBS webpage said an OB is approached by an OS and is interested. Interested, yes. Will she jump? The game hangs in the balance. Before wrapping this up, let's look at tribal loyalties. Not on camera, but where it counts...in the votes ep1 6-2 Boran ep2 5-2 Boran ep3 4-4 Samburu ep4 4-3 Samburu ep5 (3 OB+2 OS) to (1 OS)(Teresa & Frank revolt to oust Silas) ep6 3 OB to 3 OS ep7 (5 OB+3 OS) to (1 OS+ 1 OB)(LTEK+Mama Kim revolt to boot physical threat Clarence, who was never part of their alliance anyway) Teresa and Frank were still thinking short-range, even after swap as they approached the merge. OB, on the other hand, was thinking big and felt they had the luxury of booting a physical IC threat and still having enough votes. But it all could blow up in their faces if Mama Kim isn't solid for 2 more episodes. So that's it. Be sure to tune in this week, because what happens this week and next will determine the balance of power, and who ultimately wins. Think back. How would this game be different if Carl had gotten those questions right in the tiebreaker? Very different. That's how it is now. Either Teresa unifies Samburu, recruits Mama Kim, and Samburu+1 dominates and goes to the Final 5, or if Teresa fails, OB(LTEK) roars into the Final 4, picking off stragglers as they go, and then it gets really fun. The Final 3 will be completely different depending on what happens this week and next. It's the Turning Point. And it all depends on 2 things: Teresa's failure or success in her unifying/recruiting quest, and Mama Kim's decision to defect or stay put. So as far as I'm concerned, forget about Lex and his "witch hunt". The real people to watch this week are Teresa and Mama Kim. Everything else is classic MB misdirection. Always crunching the numbers...... "They are lazy, self involved little shits who are so impressed with their limited abilities they can't be bothered to respect themselves, let alone others!" Vickitori on the Young Samburus   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Wrong Forum, Scorpion... IceCat 12-06-01 1    I'm Not Webby -- AyaK 12-06-01 2  RE: The Turning Point? zzz 12-06-01 3    RE: The Turning Point? dabo 12-06-01 4    Agree AyaK 12-06-01 5        RE: Agree red 12-06-01 7  RE: The Turning Point? red 12-06-01 6    RE: The Turning Point? scorpion60 12-06-01 8        RE: The Turning Point? red 12-06-01 9            RE: The Turning Point? scorpion60 12-06-01 10

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-06-01, 05:33 AM (EST) 1. "Wrong Forum, Scorpion..." Thanks for your post, Scorpion... ... but it really should be over at the Survior 3 Spoiler forum. Webby will probably move your post over their shortly. Welcome aboard!   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-06-01, 10:17 AM (EST) 2. "I'm Not Webby --" -- but I did move this post over to Spoilers; IceCat is right about where it belongs. scorpion60, this is a very well-thought-out analysis. Welcome to SB! Let's see what everyone else has to say... However, just one correction -- Frank voted for Clarence, not Lex, in E7. See this chart for the complete voting history. So Teresa also has the challenge of re-integrating Frank into Old Samburu, if she really intends to stage a successful revolt.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-06-01, 10:41 AM (EST) 3. "RE: The Turning Point?" Excellent post. This is probably the best first-time-poster post I have ever read. Your basic logic goes along with what I have been arguing for a while here. I hope you find this post even though it moved from wherever you originally put it. I have argued for a while that you look at how people vote and behave and discount greatly what they say--although recognize they sometimes tell the truth. I have always been too lazy to put the evidence together--but you have done a pretty good job of showing that what people say (at least as shown to us) often has very little to do with how they vote. I would disagree, however, that it is so clear that KimJ is the 5th wheel. Different people have different theories on that. My suspicion is that KimJ and Kelly are in a secret suballiance with Ethan against Lex and Tom at final 5 time. I am holding that opinion in reserve, however, as more evidence comes in. If you are right about the nature of the OB alliance, then your logic follows. I just don't think we have enough evidence to know that KimJ is the fifth wheel. Keep spoiling.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-06-01, 11:28 AM (EST) 4. "RE: The Turning Point?" So, it all becomes a question of how do the alliances truly break among Old Boran and how do the Old Boran see things. L/E/T formed early, but Old Boran was committed to voting out the weak so they apparently held off on picking up a fourth, which suggests they were leaning toward Mama Kim as a fourth but didn't want to commit to it, which could hurt L/E/T at this point in the game as it did allow for the possible teaming of Mama Kim and Kelly. But then the twist (3-3 switch) divided L/E/T (temporarilly) and Ethan seemed to pair with Mama Kim in New Boran while Kelly definitely stuck with Lex and Tom. So, where are they really and how do they see themselves now (post-merge with Old Boran on top)? Tom: probably sees L/E/T as a solid shot to the final four, may not trust Kim J. or Kelly but cannot risk either of them bolting and knows this. Paired with Lex? Paired with Ethan? Kelly? Ethan: probably solid with L/E/T, letting others run the show, has the option of siding with Kim J. and Kelly when the time comes if he decides L/E/T is a bad deal (E/K/K). May not be counting on a single buddy but playing Kim J. and either Tom or Lex that way for insurance, hence his slight paranoia. Lex: shaken by having received two votes, his control freak actions as a result should reveal a lot about the workings within Old Boran, and his paranoia may wreck L/E/T internally, but it is unlikely (at this point, maybe later), or externally, if Kim J. or Kelly were to believe he would consider voting either of them off at this point (possible but more likely Old Boran will stick together this week). Probably considers himself paired with Ethan, who is the youngest in L/E/T, rather than Tom. Kim J.: may not understand the dynamics of L/E/T (which has tried to not reveal itself as yet), considers herself paired with Kelly or Ethan, possibly thinks E/K/K is the reality (which it may yet become). Possibility of an F/T/K alliance (Boran 2 Boomers) but that is very shakey as she would have to trust Frank. Kelly: may not understand the dynamics of L/E/T or E/K/K, seems to trust Mama Kim the most (they were the first two down in the ep 7 IC and confabbed then), possibly would consider a temporary alliance with Old Samburu 4 but only if Mama Kim would agree to it opening up the possibility of an F/T/K/K, which would be a very interesting thing to see but very very unlikely. Possibility of a cross-tribal alliance may be higher at this point than ever before in a "Survivor," but a big factor against it is that these people have to exist with one another for the duration of their time in the game. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-06-01, 02:24 PM (EST) 5. "Agree" zzz, I agree -- I think that the "Lex as leader" stuff is overdone, and that Kelly and Ethan are laying in wait for him when we get down to the final 5. I like your idea of Mama Kim being their third member, enabling them to control the final 3. I should point out that my SOLE reason for this belief is Kelly's snippy, out-of-character comment about Ethan from the Survivor Insider clips back in E2. The only way I can explain her comment is that Kelly thought she had made a deal with Ethan, but she still wasn't sure (at that early stage) about whether to trust him, especially when Jessie was trying to use the lure of sex to keep herself in the tribe.   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-06-01, 03:13 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Agree" I agree -- I think >that the "Lex as leader" >stuff is overdone My own hypothesis, but I think the "Lex is Leader" is overdone on purpose - to convince the rest of the Survivors that Lex is the Leader. He isn't really the leader. Case in point - look at this votes. When in survivor have we seen such unified voting? (Including the loser votes all dumped on Clarence.) When in life do we see such unification? Well, people don't unify like that on their own - there has to be some pretty impressive and successful leadership going on to pull that off. Now - let's look at when the tribes have been unified. Old Boran - unified voting. New Boran - unified voting. Merged tribe - unified voting. Who's been in all these tribes? Ehtan and KimJ. As another point, I would like to say that we have seen Lex's leadership skills in action (Man to Man talk) and I'm not inclined to believe that they are effective enough to achieve this sort of unity. When the new tribes had split votes - Lex had a "Man to Man with Brandon about how much they're sad to vote one of them. Ethan told Silas he'd be voting for Clarence. My guess is Ethan is in charge. > >I should point out that my >SOLE reason for this belief >is Kelly's snippy, out-of-character comment >about Ethan from the Survivor >Insider clips back in E2. > The only way I >can explain her comment is >that Kelly thought she had >made a deal with Ethan, >but she still wasn't sure >(at that early stage) about >whether to trust him, especially >when Jessie was trying to >use the lure of sex >to keep herself in the >tribe. This is interesting. This really could point to Kelly being the one actually in the alliance.   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-06-01, 02:58 PM (EST) 6. "RE: The Turning Point?" this is a great post. the one thing I want to point out about the "turning point" is that episode nine is primed to be a turning point. Jerri was taken out at that level. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a Boran go at that point as well. Why? Because when you have a five person team that will eventually have to turn on itself, people have to be thinking about that point and where they may fall. Ultimately, someone will have to go first and that will be the huge shift within the controlling tribe. So do you wait until you're down to five or six people? Because in theory, the first opportunity to take out someone on your team - increasing your own chances down the line- and yet without any consequence of losing control of the game is to do it at episode nine. You'll still have a majority. and you can use the other votes to your advantage - especially if the person you want to target could become an immunity threat down the line. Now, if LET are really in control, they may want to wait until later because they may not see kelly or KimJ as immunity threats. But if there's any hunkering to get rid of say Lex, (or even Ethan for that matter) the best time to do it would probably be episode nine. Also, you say KimJ and Teresa could take control of the game if they could unite Samburu this next episode. I say that's tricky. While it may be incredibly easy to reunite Samburu for episode eight, it doesn't guarantee these people will stay united to the end. it would be in everybody's best interest at THIS STAGE to vote together, but ultimately, I dont' see Brandon and KimP staying loyal to an alliance that clearly isn't in their best interest that much longer. You could get huge and unpredictable alliance shifts if a boran goes in ep. 8. Take out a Boran and in ep. 9 and the dynamics are still within control.   Top

scorpion60 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 12-06-01, 03:37 PM (EST) 8. "RE: The Turning Point?" Of course, with Samburu down 5-4, a Boran (Original Boran) CAN'T go in ep8 unless those 2 things happen.....1. Samburu unifies...and 2. a Boran defects. The alliance shift must first be the CAUSE of a Boran going, not the RESULT of it. I agree that ep9 also can be a turning point. Here are some more thoughts....... I picked Brandon to go this week, but Teresa and Lex and Tom are still possibilities in my mind based on this theory. It all depends on what Mama Kim decides to do. It's the idea of enlightened self-interest. Based on this theory, Mama Kim has a much better chance to win it all if she jumps to a unified Samburu. But she may not, either because she thinks her position is more secure than Kelly's in Boran, or because she may not trust Teresa's ability to unify the Samburu votes, as I mentioned in the post. Mama Kim may also suspect Teresa's motives, thinking it's a ploy to split off a Boran vote. However, Mama Kim and Teresa are new friends, and the threat of defection affects the next 2 votes, not just this one. If Mama Kim bolts now and Teresa unifies Samburu, Samburu+1 can go to the Final 5, where Teresa, Frank, and Mama Kim can finally kill off the last 2 Mall Rats. Who goes this week would then depend on who a unified Samburu decides to vote for. Remember, The Mall Rats and Teresa have never voted alike. The Mall Rats voted for Tom in ep6, and Teresa voted for Lex in ep7. Vote out Ethan or Kelly? Probably not. If Mama Kim defects this week and a Boran gets voted out, it's then 4 Samburu+1 to 3 Boran, so tiebreaker votes against Boran will be moot. So if Teresa succeeds in her unification/recruiting quest this week, I'm guessing that Lex or Tom will go. But if Teresa fails....... If Mama Kim stays loyal this week (a Samburu booted) and bolts next week, she can still force a 4-4 vote and boot either Tom or Lex (or whoever OS votes for this week) based on previous votes. But this strategy is fatally flawed. If Mama Kim goes now, she gets a 3-2 edge in the Final 5 and can vote out the Mall Rats, no tiebreakers needed. She goes to the Final 3 and has a 50% chance of making the jury vote against Frank and winning it all. If Mama Kim waits a week, a Samburu will get booted this week. If it's Frank or Teresa, Mama Kim will win her 4-4 tiebreaker, but will reach the Final 4 deadlocked 2-2 with the Mall Rats. Meanwhile, straggling Borans are still voting. The Borans could take Mama Kim down, even in death. The Borans could (rightfully) turn on a defecting Mama Kim and give her previous votes, or give previous votes to Frank or Teresa (whicher they spare this week). Mama Kim and her sub-alliance buddy would then be screwed on tiebreakers in crucial ep13, when 4 are left. Mall Rats in the Final 3? Run for your lives! The only way Mama Kim could wait a week before defecting and still make it work is if Boran booted Brandon or Kim P. this week. Then Mama Kim (Samburu+1) wins her 4-4 tiebreaker, goes to the Final 4 with a 3-1 edge, votes off the last Mall Rat (dependent on ep13 immunity), and Mama Kim, Teresa, and Frank still make the Final 3. But it's a risky game. Why not just jump now? If Mama Kim wants to keep her options open another week, she can suggest OB to boot either Brandon or Kim P. this week. Given Mama Kim's new friendship with Teresa, OB may be reluctant to boot Teresa this week, even if Lex's "witch hunt" succeeds in finding out Teresa voted for Lex. For to vote against Teresa this week would be the ultimate test of Mama Kim's loyalty to Boran. Boran may not want to risk it and precipitate a defection. Of course, booting Samburus the next 2 episodes pretty much closes it out, and the implications are the same: Teresa won't last long anyway. You would think that Mama Kim realizes that. But she may not want to vote against Teresa until she has to. The safe route for Boran is to placate Mama Kim by picking someone that everyone can easily agree to boot, like Brandon. My gut says this is what will happen, so Brandon was my boot pick this week. So that's why I think, based on the Turning Point Theory, those 4 (Brandon, Teresa, Lex, Tom) are the most likely ones to go this Thursday. Bottom line, if Mama Kim defects, Lex or Tom is gone. If Mama Kim stays loyal this week, Brandon goes(safe pick to placate Mama Kim, stringing her along) or Teresa goes (she's a leader like Gretchen...we may still be on step 2-strong). Enlightened self-interest.....will Mama Kim see her situation for what it is, and will she do something about it? My guess is no, but it's possible. The game hangs in the balance. "They are lazy, self involved little shits who are so impressed with their limited abilities they can't be bothered to respect themselves, let alone others!" Vickitori on the Young Samburus   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-06-01, 04:21 PM (EST) 9. "RE: The Turning Point?" I'm really concerned about this "unified Samburu" part of the equation. I think it would be naive of MamaKim and Teresa to think that Brandon and KimP will vote with them to the end - simply because there's really no incentive. This next vote, yes - the Mall Rats will need to do this to save themselves. After the split, they may do better to side with, say, Kelly than to stick with former teammates to which they have no allegiance. It just doesn't strike me as a plan that's likely to work.   Top

scorpion60 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 12-06-01, 08:12 PM (EST) 10. "RE: The Turning Point?" True. Just like a Samburu 3 on 2, there's a lot to be said (perhaps more) for Mama Kim staying with OB and trying to get a 3 on 2 vote in the Final 5 after the Samburu stragglers are booted. The only question is who Mama Kim can get to join her in a Boran 3 on 2. Kelly seems likely, but I'm not sure after that. She would need 1 of the 3 guys, and I don't know who. "They are lazy, self involved little shits who are so impressed with their limited abilities they can't be bothered to respect themselves, let alone others!" Vickitori on the Young Samburus   Top

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