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"***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****"
LoudmouthLee 294 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-23-01, 04:04 AM (EST)
 
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"***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
If only all of the choice we have were as cut and dry as last week.Lex looked a bit schitzo when push came to shove. The two votes against him were major. Editing had a lot to do with this episode.. so Let me try to sum it up well.
Lex : Recieved a lot of face time, however, strayed from the perfect plan that he so carefully placed. Being the best friend of the guy you were kicking off did not bode well with everyone.
Kelly : Was still the astute narrator of the whole story. Was the first to dislike Lex, but did not dissociate the alliance that she set up with the two of them. Ethan, LilKim, MamaKim, and Brandon all had very little character development. This leads me to the biggest news I have so far. I believe that MB is protecting Frank. Here's why: Yes, Frank has 1 vote against him. However.. No one knows about it! Silas's vote was NEVER read alod to the tribe. (Because the rest of the votes didnt matter). Frank was also saved by MB based on the 3fer switch! Frank's hanging around for a long time. We've all seen how MB can "create" his story. At thi point in time, I can even see Frank WINNING. I believe that Frank will protect his former Samburu OFA member, Teresa when push cpmes to shove. Who's out next survivor? I have a gut feeling that TOM will be the next one out. I see Lex panacking, and knowing that the ONLY person who has more votes than Lex is Tom. First born sons don't count. Good reaction to the Thresd last week. Hope y'all enjoy it again. 
(Woooohooo... Special thanks to all of my OT buddies, especially the tag team combination of SamIAm and Boomer  Thank you for the sig. Thank you, my OT buddies for making me smile 24/7 ) "What you call the disease, I call the remedy, and what you call the cause, I call the cure" -TMMB "Moscow's in ashire, whats the problem? Should I throw my tammy in the ring and run for presidente?" - Trashcan Sinatras
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-23-01, 08:09 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
Good analysis, LML... I wonder if the 'smoking out the snake' thing might be a veiled reference to Lex turning around to bite Tom by targeting him for the boot knowing he's got more votes than Lex.... as in a snake rapidly turning around to bite something out of the blue. Doing so, though, might be the end of the game for Lex as he'll be running out of friends to ally with him.Frank has been my choice as the winner of this game for some time now, and you just may be right that MB is trying to protect Frank by 'hiding' him with the editing. We've seen Lindsey say in her interviews that Frank isn't such a bad guy after all, we've seen how devoted Frank is to his family (but not played up much at all), we've seen how Frank eagerly took over the teaching role when they found out it was going to be an archery competition -- yet we don't get a real sense from the show so far that he has much of a character, otherwise. They made him seem like such an outcast in yesterday's show. I think we're going to see a lot more of Frank's true and varied personality as we get closer to the end. As for what happens in the next episode... I'm going to reserve judgement until after we see the recap show to see if there are any new story developments or leads before focusing on who should be the next bootee. 
"Damn you, Carl, for leaving me here with a bunch of misfits."
Frank Garrison, Nov. 1/01
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LoudmouthLee 294 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-23-01, 11:18 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
>Good analysis, LML... I wonder if
>the 'smoking out the snake'
>thing might be a veiled
>reference to Lex turning around
>to bite Tom by targeting
>him for the boot knowing
>he's got more votes than
>Lex.... as in a snake
>rapidly turning around to bite
>something out of the blue. This is my point verbatim. I seriously see Tom getting the bad end of the bite, and Ethan turning on Lex in the following Episode. > Doing so, though, might
>be the end of the
>game for Lex as he'll
>be running out of friends
>to ally with him.
> I think his charm will last him 1 more week. After that, he's screwed. >Frank has been my choice as
>the winner of this game
>for some time now, and
>you just may be right
>that MB is trying to
>protect Frank by 'hiding' him
>with the editing. We've
>seen Lindsey say in her
>interviews that Frank isn't such
>a bad guy after all,
>we've seen how devoted Frank
>is to his family (but
>not played up much at
>all), we've seen how Frank
>eagerly took over the teaching
>role when they found out
>it was going to be
>an archery competition -- yet
>we don't get a real
>sense from the show so
>far that he has much
>of a character, otherwise.
>They made him seem like
>such an outcast in yesterday's
>show. I think we're
>going to see a lot
>more of Frank's true and
>varied personality as we get
>closer to the end. This is the most interesting aspect of the whole thing. The tribe, again, does NOT KNOW about Frank's vote. Many people do NOT watch the voting screen directly afterwards, and when talking to a few friends who were casual survivor fans (not as anal as us), did NOT know Frank had a vote at all. That's a MAJOR deal. Frank is not being edited to be in ANY danger at all. >
>As for what happens in the
>next episode... I'm going to
>reserve judgement until after we
>see the recap show to
>see if there are any
>new story developments or leads
>before focusing on who should
>be the next bootee. Sounds like a plan, thanks for responding! (Woooohooo... Special thanks to all of my OT buddies, especially the tag team combination of SamIAm and Boomer Thank you for the sig. Thank you, my OT buddies for making me smile 24/7 ) "What you call the disease, I call the remedy, and what you call the cause, I call the cure" -TMMB "Moscow's in ashire, whats the problem? Should I throw my tammy in the ring and run for presidente?" - Trashcan Sinatras
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managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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11-23-01, 11:36 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
I defintely think Frank is the "favored" player by MB this year. Did you see how much his arm moved during that immunity challenged? It took forever for his bucket to fall. Meanwhile, the buckets came toppling down for Lex and Mama Kim who seemed like they hardly moved their arms at all! It definitely smelled like MB was trying to Colby a challenge in favor of Frank this time out.
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LoudmouthLee 294 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-23-01, 07:17 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
(adds that to the list of why Frank makes the Final 4.)Right now... I see Ethan and the MamaKim bond being strong, with the ethan and frank bond starting. I also see Kelly into this fold, making them my probable final 4. Ethan, MamaKim, Frank and Kelly. Predicted order of boot:
Tom
Lex
Brandon
Kim P
T-Bird Just my 2 cents (Woooohooo... Special thanks to all of my OT buddies, especially the tag team combination of SamIAm and Boomer Thank you for the sig. Thank you, my OT buddies for making me smile 24/7 ) "What you call the disease, I call the remedy, and what you call the cause, I call the cure" -TMMB "Moscow's in ashire, whats the problem? Should I throw my tammy in the ring and run for presidente?" - Trashcan Sinatras
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Afreaqua 181 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-24-01, 08:24 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
I didn't see MB leading Frank to the "pre-rigged" bucket. It's not like a dinner part where everyone had placecards next to their buckets. I think you're being ultra paranoid here. They took their positions according the the order in which they came.
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Serendipity 525 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-23-01, 07:48 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
Excellent points everyone.I think the order of who goes out will be different though. I think the camp has to spot Teresa doing her recruiting - there's not much they miss (at least not all of them) and they already are aware that she is emerging as a leader. If Lex were to vote Tom out, he would be putting Old Boran and his alliance at a number disadvantage. Right now Old Boran leads 5-4. Voting Tom out would make that even. I would guess the shrewd Miss Kelly would make sure the others understand that too. My guess for next week is an Old Samburu - Theresa is first choice and Brandon second. Then the week after I think Lex is in big trouble. Teresa is very popular with everyone, and she could really sway votes. My guess is, provided she stays, that she'd pick Boran off one by one, and leave her four original to the end.
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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-24-01, 00:17 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
Three things:As for Tom going next, I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Boran CANNOT vote off another member at the next tribal council. Why? Because at the one after that, they risk a 4-4 split with old Samburu. And Samburu would have the upper hand with Tom's three votes and Lex's two. They need to vote out a Samburu next in order to keep control. As for MB protecting Frank by not showing Silas's vote, I disagree. At the time of that vote, I got the distinct impression that MB was f**king with Ethan's airtight strategy. Ethan is anal about knowing who has votes. I felt that MB was deliberately hiding a vote to screw with him. There's really no way this protects Frank. Come a tie Frank could be in for a big surprise. Ethan was lopping all extra votes onto Clarence, and MB didn't want him to know if he was successful yet again. that was my impression at the time, and I'm sticking with it.
LML: YOu pick Tom, Lex, Brandon, KimP, Teresa. I don't understand how this could happen. Once Tom and Lex are gone, Samburu has the opportunity to run with it. Why don't they? You're assuming a core alliance of Ethan, Frank, Kelly and KimJ. I can somewhat understand this - yet why is Ethan better in this situation than he was in his alliance with Tom and Lex. I still believe Ethan's endgame is to go up against Lex - which makes much more sense after last night's episode. You think Ethan is tighter with the women and will stick with them and Frank? And Frank thinks he's better off with former Boran and voting of his Samburu teammates who actually need him? I'm just having a hard time envisioning it happening. What I want to know is, once Boran picks off two more members, how do Samburu allow themselves to be picked off one by one?
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herewiss13 8 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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11-24-01, 08:53 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
>I don't see anyone from Boran going this week, simply because >they know that they only chance they have to win is to vote off >an original Samburu, and I definitely think they will do that. >MB would like us to go away from the logical choices which are >Teresa, Frank, Kim and Brandon but I think that it has to be >one of those 4. The original Borans, even though they may not >like each other tremendously, are not stupid enough to jump >ship this week.Someone elsewhere posited a successful path for Kelly that involves just such a betrayal. Kelly goes with Samburu, Pagongs the rest of Boran. Then she and the GXers vote off the OF duo and she's a shoe-in for the final two (depending on the challenge). She'd probably want to take Brandon with her, rather than KimP, but if she manages to not tick Boran off with the switch (definitely the tricky part), then the win is practically assured. The only concerns she'd have are a spite vote and surprising immunity victors. Not the most _probable_ scenario, but it does demonstrate how a betrayal might be beneficial. Eric
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-25-01, 09:32 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-25-01 AT 09:36 PM (EST)zzz- This is just my opinion, but I do not think that Kim P and Brandon hate Teresa and Frank as much as Silas and Lindsey did. I think if they feel they can go all the way with them, then they will do that if given the opportunity. I personally don't think that they will feel any more loyalty to Kelly than they would to Teresa(who they have said they do indeed like) or Frank who may just tag along with Teresa. Again, this is just my opinion, but I do not see any reason why Kelly would even think that they would take her into the final three, as opposed to the people they have been with all along. Edited to add: And why do people think Kelly would be the one from Boran to go anyway? I believe it is just wishful thinking on their part, though I may be wrong. I think it is just as likely that Mama Kim or even possibly Lex at this point would be as likely to side with the Samb's as Kelly would be. She and Mama Kim felt vulnerable before the merge because it dealt with losing immunity challenges and they were the weaker links. However, at this stage, they are the two least likely to be voted out from the old Borans, because they are no longer an immunity threat. I can not see any reason why Kelly would consider jumping ship, but particularly not at this stage.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-25-01, 05:47 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
OK--Here is my take on what is being discussed above by people in this thread.First--I agree that in all likelihood the next to go will be an old Samburu. I think that all the old Boran have an end game in mind and it is the same end game they had before the twist. This end game never included Clarence which is why he is gone. I think it does include the rest of the old Boran to a point. That plan is going perfectly at this point with old Boran having a numerical advantage that they will keep. This means they cannot take out any "fringe" member of old Boran until there are not enough old Samburu to make a difference. The conversation between Lex, Tom and Kelly suggest as much although their statement about smooth sailing to the "final four" rather than "final five" may suggest an opening for betrayal. It appears that someone may know that he or she is not in the core of Boran's alliance. Second--the only way I see an old Boran going this week is if there is a permanent realignment by one of the old Boran. If, for example, KimJ knew that she was not in the core alliance of old Boran she might have incentive to switch to old Samburu. One person said that type of switch (I think that example assumed it would be Kelly) would guarantee 5th place, but I disagree. The person (be it KimJ, Kelly, Ethan--it really does not matter) would have the opportunity at the final 5 to side with either of the 2 groups (Frank/Teresa or Brandon/KimP) because these 2 sets of pairs really do not get along and would be happy to go after each other before trying to go after the old Boran at the final 3 stage. In other words, I think an old Boran that switched sides would have a virtualy guaranteed ride to the final 3 (barring unusual immunity runs) but would probably have to win the last challenge to make it to the finals (i.e., I think Frank/Teresa or Brandon/KimP would be loyal to each other but not the other pair from old Samburu). Third--I see absolutely no reason for Lex to betray Tom at this point. I know Lee has a much better record than I do on figuring these things out but I do not understand the logic. This next vote cannot end in a deadlock tie because there are uneven numbers, so past votes don't really matter. The fact that Tom has more votes than Lex seems to be a reason to keep Tom around until the final 4 when past votes will be incredibly important, so keeping Tom around will mean there is someone that Lex could beat in the final 4 in a deadlock tie. Moreover, Tom seems to be an incredibly reliable vote that Lex can control. Lee--please explain to me the strategy that would cause Lex to want to take out Tom in E8? I just don't see it. Lex would see how vulnerable it would leave him. As a matter of fact taking out Tom would almost guarantee the remaining old Sambubu would successfully boot Lex (barring immunity) the next vote. Lex can see this. Lex will vote in E8 to take out an old Samburu--I can almost guarantee it. I cannot guarantee that there will not be a traitor in old Boran--but I am virtually certain it will not be Lex. Only someone who does not see a future in the old Boran alliance would vote to eliminate an old Boran. Lex seems way too cocky in his position to think he is not secure in the old Boran alliance. I am not sure I can say that about anyone else.
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LoudmouthLee 294 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-26-01, 01:27 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
I like the points... here's my take.Brandon seems like a leech.
If he's presented with the opportunity to "team up" with a stronger person, a more influential person than LilKim, he's going to do so. His duplicity has rung true throughout. Frank doesn't seem to be going anywhere, and in the same turn, Frank is protecting TBird as much as possible. MamaKim and Kelly both seem to be relatively UTR... I see the posibility of a Lex-Brandon-KimP alliance forming. But.. thats just me.. I could be very wrong.
(Woooohooo... Special thanks to all of my OT buddies, especially the tag team combination of SamIAm and Boomer Thank you for the sig. Thank you, my OT buddies for making me smile 24/7 ) "What you call the disease, I call the remedy, and what you call the cause, I call the cure" -TMMB "Moscow's in ashire, whats the problem? Should I throw my tammy in the ring and run for presidente?" - Trashcan Sinatras
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-26-01, 09:13 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
Lee--I am still not sure what you are suggesting. Lex cannot guarantee getting Tom out by joining with Brandon and KimP because 3 votes is not enough--a majority takes 5. It is possible that no other person will get more than 3 votes, but why would Lex take this chance? Furthermore, Lex would see that if he betrays Boran, the remaining Boran would team up with Teresa and Frank to take out Lex. Remember--tie votes cannot end in deadlock in E8 because there are an odd number of people. Thus Tom's 3 prior votes are irrelevant. If Lex wanted to take out his toughest competition in ICs it would be Ethan and not Tom. He would leave Tom as a deadlock tie-break loser in the next round (although Lex is bound to get more votes in E8 and thus he would be the deadlock tie-break loser in E9 if it came to that). But I highly doubt Lex would try this gambit. You have to keep human psychology in mind. In S1 and S2, we never really saw any shifting alliance. We saw betrayal--yes--but not any true realignments. I think there is a good reason for this. Once you make alliances and a game plan, it is difficult to see that a new game plan would be better. Even when Amber was slapped in the face with the fact that a new game plan would be better she could not realign--although I think most of the people on S3 in Amber's situation would make the right choice and switch (especially after watching S2 and seeing how dumb Amber was). If you have a history of voting with someone and it has worked, why switch? How can you know you can trust your new allies? Why should they trust you when you just betrayed your last set of allies? It seems pretty clear that Lex feels quite safe in what he views as "his" Boran alliance. I have a hard time seeing a scenario in which he would find any reason to swith to new allies. Actually, I think it is highly unlikely any member of Boran switches sides. They have each already had an opportunity to switch and when the time came, they stuck with Boran. Kelly voted with Lex and Tom. KimJ sent signals to Kelly about Lindsey's votes. I just don't see any real evidence of a switch. I also don't understand what you mean when you say that Frank would "protect" Teresa. Assume that you are correct that the editing indicates that Frank stays around for a while. That only means that MB knows Frank does not go immediately and is editing him that way. It does not mean that Frank has any power to keep Teresa in the game. I know that you have been pretty good at figuring things out in the past. I just don't see what evidence you are using for your conclusions here.
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vulcan 56 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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11-26-01, 09:48 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
i definately agree samburu will go frank as for mr. burnett protecting frank by not having his 1 vote read out dont think so frank is gone next though teresa would be the smarter pick because frank is an immunity threat
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-26-01, 09:58 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: ***Character Development- CB goes AWOL****" |
>Lex cannot guarantee getting Tom out by joining
>with Brandon and KimP because 3 votes is
>not enough--a majority takes 5. It is possible that
>no other person will get more than 3 votes, but
>why would Lex take this chance? Furthermore, Lex would
>see that if he betrays Boran, the remaining Boran would
>team up with Teresa and Frank to take out Lex.We don't know this. What if Teresa convinces KimP and Brandon they need to get together again and support each other as hinted in the preview, and would Teresa consider joining in with an old Boran group that includes Tom who openly leered at her? If I'm Lex and I'm feeling unsupported by Kelly and MamaKim (with Kelly's comments), I might be open to the idea of switching over to the Samburus especially after getting to know who KimP and Brandon are along with seeing how much Frank acts like a loner. Lex could conceivably see that joining the old Samburus is his ticket to the final two. Why? The best IC threat amongst the old Samburus is Frank, Lex could probably lap him easily -- the only real obstacle is an endurance IC against Teresa, while in the old Borans he has to go up against Ethan (physical) and Kelly (mental). Let's say Lex wins 2 or 3 IC's including the key ones with 4 left and 3 left... he could take Brandi or Frank with him and have a reasonable shot at winning. Is this likely to happen? Who knows... but probably not, though.
>Remember--tie votes cannot end in deadlock in E8 because
>there are an odd number of people. Thus Tom's
>3 prior votes are irrelevant. It CAN conceivably happen. I don't believe it will happen, but it can happen in the following scenario: Lex/Tom/Ethan vote for a strong threat in Frank, Kelly/KimP/Brandon vote Lex (another strong threat and Kelly's dislike for him), and the OFAs KimJ/Frank/Teresa vote for Brandon (someone that F and T aren't crazy about from their Samburu days) or Tom (leering at KimJ leading to discomfort). Therefore in this long-shot scenario, Tom gets the boot with 3 prior votes (or if it's Brandon targeted by OFAs, then Lex gets the boot with 2 prior votes).
"Damn you, Carl, for leaving me here with a bunch of misfits."
Frank Garrison, Nov. 1/01
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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