|
|
|
|
PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
encouraged to read the
complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
|
|
|
"Merge !!! When is it Happening?"
Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
|
11-16-01, 02:06 AM (EST)
 
  |
|
"Merge !!! When is it Happening?" |
Some of my initial reactions is that the merge might not be coming this week, or if it does, look completely diffrent than what we have been used to. Tom's comment about waiting for a bus that didn't come by, coupled with Clarence talking about the tree mail being big and ugly suggest things might be "twisting" again out in Africa. Here below is some of the initial thoughts that I have about what could happen this week.1. No merge, No food.
This could explain both Tom and Clarence's comments, but I don't know if that kind of emotional reaction would be coming from Clarence because Boran still has chickens to eat. 2. Merge happens but the teams Sambyebye and Boring still compete.
This would be big and ugly and cause an emotional reaction, but I don't see any missing bus here. 3. Merge happens as normal
In my personal opinion, this theory has the least evidance so far. 4. Merge happens, and teams compete in groups of 3
No evidance what so ever. It would be Big and ugly, but I would think that Tom would have commented that he got run over by the bus. Anyone else got any theories? Lets start Spoiling guys.
Naked
|
|
|
Top |
| |
MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
11-16-01, 10:13 AM (EST)
|
|
1. "RE: Merge !!! When is it Happening?" |
1. No merge no food......Though I think that this is possible, I can not see this happening. I think that if there is no merge this week, then MB has to feed these people. You can not have people that are dead on their feet trying to compete in challenges, and with the way that this group has done a very good job of rationing the food, I can not see how MB can make them suffer for that. 2. Merge happens, teams still compete....... I think the major point of the merge is for this to no longer be a team game but an individual game(you know a race for the gold, so to speak), and I think that it would be extrememly counter productive and meaningless to merge the tribes and still have them compete. I can not see any value to this, but then again I guess I would not put anything past MB. 3. Merge happens as normal....... In my opinion this theory has the most evidence so far. Actually not, but I also have not seen any evidence to say otherwise. I think that MB is trying to make us think there is no merge as normal, just because there is one. It is just a personal opinion and I may be dead wrong but I think it is very likley that we see the teams merge as normal this coming week. There is no real evidence to support any of these theories, and because I think a normal merge is the simplest way of doing thins(either than or a delayed merge) I think they will stick with it. It works, and its good tv. 4. Merge happens, tribes compete in groups of three..... All I can say to this is, "huh?". To me, this does not make any sense at all. First off, this could only work for the first week, and then one group would have a team of two. That would be an incredible disadvantage to two other groups of three, and there is no way that after the merge that anyone is going to be "sitting out" of the challenges. I guess I am not sure where this theory came from, but it seems pretty unlikely to me. As I said in question two, the merge is about changing this from a team game to more of an individual game, and this would be counter productive to that. I do not see this one happening at all, though it would certainly make for an interesting twist. 5. A common theory around here.... A delayed merge until EP 8. I think this is also a considerable possibility. It gives the new tribes a bit longer to get to know one another, and it may divide the old tribes just a bit more, which is what I think MB wants. To me this is the only other real possibility to the normal merge.
If I were to guess myself, I would say it will be a normal merge. That is why there is a feast next week, I am thinking. But I can be wrong and if I am, I will guess that we see the merge in the following episode. The other possibilities could happen, but I do not see any real value to them, which leads me to believe they probably will not happen.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
wingsoficarus 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
|
11-16-01, 10:25 AM (EST)
|
|
2. "The Watergate Conspiracy" |
I haven a theory, back in episode 3 when the two tribes were competing for the 100 gal of water, Jeff said "100 Gallons, fresh, clean drinking water delivered to your camp tomorrow morning (DAY 8) It's enough water for every tribe member to have a gallon of water a day until the merge (Day 20)"At the current rate, if each member of Boran was drinking a gallon of water per day, by morning of day 20, Boran should still have aprox 32 gallons of water left. If they go another 6 days (2 more TC's) and loose at least one person in that time, and merge on the morning of day 26, the water supply should be empty. Using the watergate theory, i suspect the merge will happen in episode 9, on or around day 26. Just a theory.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
11-16-01, 10:47 AM (EST)
|
|
4. "RE: Merge !!! When is it Happening?" |
All of Naked's possibilities are a little too complicated for me so I will just focus on the question, will the merge happen in E7, E8 or later.E7 MERGE--One main argument for an E7 merge is that it is the normal time for a merge and what would be the reason to change it. The reason to threaten a delay was to keep Boran from throwing more ICs, and that goal has been accomplished. The merge is at 10 players to give the 7 jurors plenty of time to get to know the finalists, and that need would still be there. There is also the argument that it is "unfair" to merge at uneven numbers because one tribe will necessarily have a numerical advantage. E8 MERGE--MB may merge at E8 because he is trying to make things more interesting this season. Things get much more predictable after the merge and MB hates predictability. Ratings also often drop off after the merge. MB also wants to try to encourage cross-tribal alliances, and postponing the merge will help to do this because they will have more time together at a tribe. With the "twist" there is no real need to merge at even numbers. The 7 jurors will still all have some time (at least 3 days) with the finalists and that should be enough (given the return each 3-day period at TC). MERGE after E8--I find a later merge unlikely because it would require either reducing the number of jurors or make some jurors vote for someone they were never in a tribe with and only got to know from observing them at TCs when they return to observe. I find either of these solutions too problematic. Food and night duty would also become a big problem.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
 |
Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
|
11-18-01, 04:22 AM (EST)
|
|
10. "RE: Merge !!! When is it Happening?" |
ZZZ,
Another thought that I had, is that there is no merge E7, and when it does occur in E8, that teams compete in groups of three. I remember that when satelite photos where first taken and posted on this board, there where three huts surrounded by a wall that we now know is the tribal council area. SB then had some posts conjecturing that 3 teams may compete instead of 2 (Jeff P. never made comments about 3 tribes competing.) TC area could be the post merge camp, and the huts could still signify a 3 tribe competition with everyone living together in the same "village". The only evidance that I have read against this is the SOS (Survivor Oficial Sight) posting the individual competition stuff, but they have been willing to mislead us before.....
Naked
|
|
|
Top |
| |
NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
|
11-16-01, 04:53 PM (EST)
|
|
5. "RE: Merge !!! When is it Happening?" |
"No one knows how or when it will happen"What about this:
Episode 7: No word on the merger, and the tribes are getting restless waiting. Much discussion ensues regarding the merger and food issues. Tree mail: (RC clue) "it's big and it's ugly" -- this refers not to the merge, but to the Reward Challenge. Because it's not news of a merger, they assume the merge is delayed for another cycle of RC/IC/TC. Viewers will be fooled too, since in normal merger episodes, the entrie ep. is devoted to relocating the tribes, meet and greet with cheese and wine, new tribal colors and choosing the new tribe's name, as well as confessionals about new and old strategies/alliances. Last season the survivors were tricked because of the "girls night out/boys night out" twist and then the scramble to break down the individual camps to relocate to a brand new one. But it wasn't enough of a twist to change the direction of the game. People still had a chance to scheme and plot. Why do I bring this up? Well, let us not forget that we have been told that the "game would be changed forever -- all alliances, and all friendships shattered." Now honestly, has this happened? No! The GXA was shattered, but Boran alliances and friendships have, thus far, remained in tact. In order for this statement to be true, the Boran alliances must also be affected. no one knows how it will happen
O.K. so obviously it's not just a quesiton of when the merger will take place, but also how.
Merging in the typical way as outlined above doesn't do anything to mess up Boran alliances, since no matter when the merge happens, if it happens at the beginning of a three day cylce, they still have an opportunity to reconnect with old friends and scope out the situation. My theory:
The tribes compete at RC as separate tribes, expecting the merge to be delayed at least until another team tribal council. We have vid-cap evidence that shows Boran walking to a challenge with the idol. They aren't wearing the same clothes from episode 6, so they must be on their way to ep. 7 IC. This would make viewer assume, again, that the IC is team-based. I bellieve that is why that vid cap was released -- to make us assume there would be a team IC. But, when the tribes arrive, Jiffy says something like "you've probably been wondering about the merge, well, it's here: take off your buffs." They take off their buffs and are handed the new tribal color. Jiffy: "This challenge is for individual immunity". Then, just as in S2, they go directly from IC to TC without any opportunity to discuss strategy. Nobody was expecting it, so no one has thought about how to vote under the new circumstances. The voting will be chaotic and sporadic There you have it -- almost all the prophecies are realized.
1. All alliances become shattered when no one votes together.
2 the merge everyone assumed would occur on day 21 occurs on day 23. Hence, Jiffy's remark is not just a sadistic ploy.,
3. Former power players find themselves in a whole new world. Everyone assumed this would be about GXA, but it could be anyone under this scenario. Feel free to pick this apart, but I think we need to address the "how" of the merge and not just the "when".
Psssst... I was never here
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
red 140 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
|
11-16-01, 05:17 PM (EST)
|
|
7. "RE: Merge !!! When is it Happening?" |
This is an interesting theory and it makes me question if it could lead to a Teresa boot post-merge. For example, is it likely that without a chance to strategize all of Samburu would vote Teresa? Maybe if Frank has immunity. But I do question their inability to strategize on the way to council. Even for all of Samburu to pick T it seems there'd have to be a brief discussion. therefore, its just as likely to have a brief discussion with Ethan, Kim, etc. I like the idea though.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
KittyCat 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
|
11-16-01, 05:26 PM (EST)
|
|
9. "RE: Merge !!! When is it Happening?" |
In the yahoo Survivor Pickem game, players can guess which tribe wins immunity for bonus points. For EP7, there is not a bonus question, which suggests that yahoo plans on the merge taking place in EP7. Just thought I would throw that out there.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
|
11-18-01, 09:57 AM (EST)
|
|
11. "THREE TEAMS OF THREE - AGAIN!" |
I think this is precisely what happens. They are going to go to their new, already built huts, the ones seen in the satellite photo, around the TC area. They go to TC then never leave the area. They're home already! And this three tribes of three living together as one is being floated all over the board(s) yesterday, AGAIN. But this time this fits with the "all alliances shattered" because this final split would decimate the Old Boron line-up = or would it? If Teresa goes as everyone seems to think, this would leave three women and six men. With one woman on every team, and the men, well, inevitably TWO of the Old Boron men may end up on the same team, which would still leave ONE alliance and one alliance only unshattered. It could be Ethan/Lex/Kim Pee, for instance. Or Tom, Brandon and Mama Kim. And Clarence, Frank and Kelly. Well, as you can see, even with this totally random selection of mine, you see already-established alliances are still there all over the place. Maybe they have to compete for immunity and win it as a tribe. This would put a stop to the Colby/ Kelly Wiggelesworth Immunity steamroller. Because the whole tribe would win. Not one person. The tribal council voting would be tiny, or would it? With one team(three people, say Ethan, Lex, Kim Pee) winning immunity, they would all still be able to vote some one off from the other two losing teams. This would make the whole thing MUCH more unpredictable. MUCH. Maybe it's fairer. And maybe it's more interesting than the PAGONGING(I love that it's now a verb!)that took place in S2, with the KuchieKoos going slowly, slowly til AND THEN THERE WERE NONE.
Living in those already built huts would solve the water, food, animal sentry problem, and give them (the jury plus the final two) the chance to REALLY know each other and make them all as paranoid as hell. PAGONGING would be impossible. But why do I think that the old Boron tribal lines would still stay strong? Maybe the tribe that loses loses the right to vote ENTIRELY and one tribe is immune, and the second place tribe is NOT immune, but can vote.
This would REALLY be new, and scary. Isn't that what MB wants? And hey, MB! If this isn't the case, HIRE ME as a writer! I think this could work. It's an appauling change, or as Clarence said "It's big and it's ugly!" I think this fits all criterias. Then the final four, are the final four, as of old, when once again SUDDENLY the game, in the last episode becomes the game we know. Strategizing as we knew it would be virtually impossible. And it would be almost impossible to predict. Help!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
NorthOfBoston 158 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
|
11-22-01, 07:14 PM (EST)
|
|
20. "A lie, is a lie, is a lie? " |
"Having the merge occur in Ep 7 would also allow the CBS website to be true as well. MB may have no problem screwing around with the survivors, but its generally not good business practice to lie to your customers (viewers)."
I just checked out the CBS website "rules" pages and I thought this was interesting: (in glossary)
"BORAN
The name of the tribe whose members are Clarence, Diane, Ethan, Jessie, Kelly, Kim Johnson, Lex and Tom. SAMBURU
The name of the tribe whose members are Brandon, Carl, Frank, Kim Powers, Linda, Lindsey, Silas and Teresa. "
Now, if CBS was really telling the truth to their viewers, they wouldn't have defined the tribes this way, after all, we know who Boran & Samburu are NOW (well, according to the twist). Also:
in "FAQ"
"1. What kinds of challenges are there?
There are two kinds. One is a Reward Challenge, in which Survivors compete for luxuries, such as a phone call home or a hot shower. The second is an Immunity Challenge, in which Survivors compete for the most valuable prize: immunity from being voted out of Africa at Tribal Council. The team winning an Immunity Challenge does not have to vote one of its own out at the end of a three-day period, whereas the losing team does. Occasionally, the Reward and Immunity challenges are combined: winners receive both a reward and immunity from having to vote." This last part is interesting because it provides the possibility that tonight's episode might not have a RC, but rather a combined RC/IC.
(One sideways comment: is this "rule" new because of Tina's promise to Colby of a new motorcycle?
"Several actions will result in immediate elimination from the contest and expulsion from Africa, as well as forfeiture of any prize. If you were one of the Survivors, you wouldn't want to do any of these things: Try to conspire to share the prize. The million dollars may be won by one and only one individual. Survivors are prohibited from sharing or making any agreement to share all or any portion of the prize." )
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
ChipK2 12 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
|
11-19-01, 11:22 AM (EST)
|
|
15. "RE: One more outside possibility" |
It would also destroy any chance for "new" alliances that might be created due to the first swap. The Borons would be forced to stick together and take out one of the pair of Samburus that they are with.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
|
11-21-01, 01:46 AM (EST)
|
|
16. "RE: Merge !!! When is it Happening?" |
After much web surfing this week, (I know, I know, the internet is not the most reliable source of information) I have come up with a some conclusions that I am willining to share. The 3 person tribe, although very plausable, I believe to be a red herring planted by futurizmo. here is a link to a Fox news sight, from last August.http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,33054,00.html As Dabo noted on another thread, there is some obvious misinformation on this sight, and as everything else that they said was false, I believe that the 3 tribe story is also. I also found no reliable sight or news that backed this theory.I do believe however, that the story of Doc slipping up and saying he spent time with Theresa on a Safari to be credible. My prediction is this. No merge this week, Boran loses IC, and Theresa gets the boot.
Naked
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
|
11-21-01, 05:58 PM (EST)
|
|
18. "RE: 3 tribe RUMOR..." |
Thanks sleeve, I'll keep the spoiling ball rolling. by the way, I remember now reading your post last month, and I should have been a little more sceptical then, but I just had to see for myself....
Naked
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
|
11-22-01, 11:57 AM (EST)
|
|
19. "RE: 3 tribe RUMOR..." |
I think the 3 tribe rumor is BS, but we might see teams competing in ICs with more than one person winning immunity, and maybe not the same teams every time. If that is what MB does, it'll do a LOT to stop Pagonging and reduce predictability.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
|
|
Email this topic to a friend
Printer-friendly version of this topic
Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)
