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"Alicia Calaway's Review of E7"
zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-08-01, 07:35 AM (EST)
 
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"Alicia Calaway's Review of E7" |
Below is Alicia's review of E7. I think this confirms for anyone who still had doubts that some form of realignment took place in E5 and that Susan and Alicia were given inside information. It still does not confirm whether it is a swap or three tribe scenario--but three tribe scenario is still looking good.
Survivor: Africa
Will There Be a Feast Tonight?
60 min.
By Alicia Calaway
Samburu alliances got screwed with the realignment and I'm glad. Those guys made it way too obvious from the beginning what their strategies were, who they were aligned with and how they felt about each other. As a result, they had nothing but animosity toward each other---and they deserve it! If you make those kinds of mistakes in this game they will always come back and bite you in the a--. Other than Kim, none of the younger folks who were part of Samburu will make it to the final four. On the other hand, I love Boran. Lex and Ethan are playing the game perfectly. They are likable and physically fit enough to stick around, but they aren't so likable that you want to get rid of them out of fear of sitting next to them in the finals. One of them will win it all. By this time in the game, Days 19, 20 and 21, players must know who they want next to them at the end. The smart thing is to make sure that there is one person, only one, that you level with and trust. You should have more than one person in your alliance, but only one to whom you are committed. The others are just pawns to help get you to the finish. It is vital that the players get all of the dirt they can on the other folks, like whether they have any votes against them, so they can poison the water, so to speak, by spreading rumors about the people they don't like. Then, when they get back together with their original tribemates and alliance partners, they can create a strategy to take them to the end.
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Rain Crow 374 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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11-08-01, 07:54 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Alicia Calaway's Review of E7" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-08-01 AT 07:56 AM (EST)Aha! I just logged on here after checking out the TV Guide. And, just as I thought since the end of last weeks episode...the twist will be a tribal shuffle of some sort, followed by a merge later on, probably in a couple of episodes. I have almost been swayed by IceCat's and others early merge arguments. But now, I don't see how any of the early merge supporters can make their theories jive with Alicia's preview. I could never completely convince myself that an early merge would meet the criteria of shattering friendships and alliances and this confirms my suspicion. A "realignment" does not equate to an early merge. Now we just have to figure out (or wait to see!) what kind of tribal shuffle is in the works. I still believe some sort of member swap is most practical (I still like 3 member swaps), but the three tribe option would be more dramatic. It's almost show time folks!
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-08-01, 09:06 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Alicia Calaway's Review of E7" |
MD--It is not clear to me from your post what you thought I was implying. I state in my original post that Alicia's review does not confirm whether it is a swap or three tribes. I agree it could still be a swap (1, 2 or 3). I merely said that my favorite theory, three tribes, is still alive. That said, I think that her statement that Sumburu got screwed in the realignment and only Kimp may make it to the Final Four does lend a little bit of weight in my favor--not overwhelming, but a little. Here is why--if it were simply a swap, I do not think it would be as clear that Samburu would be in trouble. Under any version of the swap, the GXA largely stays intact. That would give them a pretty good base to make a run. There would also be no good reason to single out Kimp. If she were the 1 person swapped, she would likely be dead woman walking living over at Boran. If she were not swapped, there would be no real reason to single her out. Again--I repeat--I am not saying the clues we have make a swap impossible. As a matter of fact, if the twist is not three tribes, then I believe it MUST be a swap of some kind (Susan and Alicia's review make this clear). I merely think the clues are more consistent with three tribes than a swap--but if three tribes was a plot by MB to fool us that would explain why the clues would be somewhat consistent with both theories but leaning toward the false theory.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-08-01, 09:19 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Alicia Calaway's Review of E7" |
I knew what you meant zzz. I just felt like raising a little havoc for the last 12 hour or so stretch before the show.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-08-01, 09:34 AM (EST)
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6. "What do Sue and Alicia know?" |
Okay, it's time for a realistic perspective on that question. Sue and Alicia are not under contract to MB except as relates to the obligations (secrecy agreement) of their original contracts. However, Sue and Alicia are under contract with TV Guide. MB may not have supplied Sue or Alicia with anything, he may have provided the material to TV Guide under a separate agreement with that publication. TV Guide could then supply Sue and Alicia with such material as was determined they required in order to produce their articles, or could even edit that material into the supplied pieces by Sue and Alicia under the terms of their contracts. TV Guide probably did supply Sue and Alicia with the material."If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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11-08-01, 10:26 AM (EST)
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7. "Preview or Review?" |
This is her PREVIEW of Ep 7, not a review of it, correct? And, "Will There Be a Feast Tonight", I assume means the merge feast - merge would be Ep 7. Just want to get that clear. If this is all absolutely correct (if if if), then it is telling us that Lex, Ethan, and Kim P are still in through Ep 6. "None of the younger folks who were part of Samburu will make it to Final Four" : this implies that Lindsey, Silas, and Brandon are still in, and that at least one of them is no longer in Samburu. (other interpretation - one or more is already out and she is just stating the obvious; the past tense for Samburu could just mean that it is now a merged tribe so Samburu no longer exists). As far as "inside information" that has been debated - it just looks to me like Sue and Alicia get to view the episodes ahead of us. They have to, in order to get their previews done in time for publication. And if MB is so intent on hiding stuff from us, how is it that this little problem slipped through the cracks?
dangerkitty
Goddess of Words
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-08-01, 11:09 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Preview or Review?" |
dangerkitty--I agree with you that my use of the word "review" is misleading and that it is really a preview. I am not convinced, however, that they get to see any of the episodes early. I am not convinced that Alicia knows exactly who is in the game for E7. I think she was told enough to make her "preview" make some sense because if she had not been told anything about the twist her article would be gibberish--which would not be good for CBS or MB (so either through TV Guide or directly--someone at CBS or MB told them something about the twist). So all we really know is that Susan and Alicia were told there was some form of "realignment" and from Alicia's article, they seem to know who was placed on what new teams (be it 2 or 3 tribes after the realignment). Beyond that (other than perhaps that the merge would be delayed), I am not convinced they were told anything. So I certainly don't think we can assume all of the GXA are still around at E7. I also don't think we can even know for sure that Kimp is still around in E7. I think that Alicia just calculated that based on the realignment, Kimp ended up in a good position and was very unlikely to be booted by E7. Mathematically, at least 2 of the GXA must still be around during E7. These somewhat cryptic articles by Susan and Alicia seem to lead people to see what they want to see to a certain extent (me included). I just don't think we should read too much into them (even though I have been a big champion of the theory that they give useful information which was discounted by many). Finally, I think her statements at the end of the article about getting information during E7 that can be used when people get back together with former tribe mates and alliance partners suggests that the merge does NOT occur at the beginning of E7 as it did in S1 and S2 (although, again, the words are vague enough to allow for an E7 merge).
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-08-01, 12:12 PM (EST)
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11. "Will There Be a Feast Tonight?" |
DK, I agree. The feast would have to be the "merge feast".The fact that the timing is in question is a clear indication that it has not happened yet.(No Early Merge)It also suggests that MB wants us to consider the possibility of a postponed merge, either because the full affects of the swap have not played out or the group challenges make for better TV... MB, knows that it is obvious to the viewers that Lex, Ethan and Kim P. are not targets for the next few weeks ,so "letting it slip through the cracks" is giving us that information doesn't cost him anything, we've already concluded it anyway, and it may improve ratings. MB may have decided to alter the format of the show, "changed forever" to a game where 4 get voted off pre-swap, 3 get voted off post swap/pre-merge, and the jury consists of the 7 voted off after the merge leading up to the final 2.  Krautboy
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-08-01, 12:36 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Will There Be a Feast Tonight?" |
Krautboy--In general I agree with you with a few exception. First, I do not think that MB "let it slip" that Kimp, Lex and Ethan would be safe up until E7 because I do not think Alicia ever had this information confirmed for her. As you state, it is incredibly obvious (and maybe even more obvious once the reconstituted tribes are know--information I believe Alicia did have) to everyone, including Alicia that these people would still be around during E7, and she just assumed it was safe to take it for granted. If by some shock she were wrong and Kimp, Lex and/or Ethan were voted out by E7, she might look a little foolish, but I think she was willing to take the risk because it seemed so extremely unlikely to happen. I just have a hard time believing that MB would let Alicia print that information about those three players if she knew for sure they were still around. That is just not his style (yes--I know you said he was willing to give away easy info, but I just think my scenario is more likely). I also agree that it is most likely an E8 merge (as you seem to suggest) rather than E7. Both Susan and Alicia seem to imply this in their articles (although not unambiguously). Of course, as your probably know, I still think it is a 3 tribe scenario rather than a swap in E5, but I don't think that distinction was really central to your post. I think the main points of your post that I agree with is that there is some form of realignment in E5 (could be swap as you think or could be three tribe realignment as I think) and the merge does not happen in E7 (but probably does in E8).
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-08-01, 03:40 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Alicia Calaway's Review of E7" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-08-01 AT 03:47 PM (EST)I think one can get a good idea of what Alicia and Sue are told by thinking of how these articles are meant to function. Not only are they not "reviews," they are not "previews." Alicia/Sue are in the position of sportscasters before a game--as "retired" players they understand what it's like to be in that point of the game. Much like a sportscaster, they try to put themselves in the shoes of the players and guess the plays and strategy for the upcoming game, i.e. episode, and for the season as a whole--but it's absolutely meant to be a speculation for the armchair viewer to take as no more than that. As with the announcers, part of the fun (if any) is to laugh at how their supposed insight failed them. As for knowledge, the spoiler value (if any) would be that they know some important facts about the episodes prior to the one they're discussing. That puts them on equal footing with the viewer that week. Thus if the rules changed in 5, Sue needed to know that in order to write 6, and Alicia needed to know something about 6 to write 7, but Alicia did not need special info to write 5. Her article for 5 reflects that she knew no more than if she had seen Episode 4 (and not the preview). (Hope that's not too convoluted.) The spoiler potential would only come from the fact they get released on the net a little in advance and that they publish the official episode title before we get an official preview. The new "Feast" title tells us it's supposed to be the merge episode (as we know), but maybe there's some uncertainty things will unfold as usual. Tonight's title of 'I'd never do it to you' tells me that people are swearing loyalty as part of the tribe or alliance says goodbye. Samburu's alliance getting screwed by the realignment? Well, they only need to lose one member of their voting bloc to another tribe to be in trouble, especially the one or more that are split off. This tells us IMO that at least one Mawler gets realigned. If it's a 1-1 swap, Teresa and Frank stay in Samburu. That tells us the tribes don't get to pick who leaves in the Swedish Switch scenario. 3 tribes or 3-3 swap of course fulfill the screwing of GXA, except that if they were made into one team they could theoretically continue on by not losing IC. As to Kim P., she has an obvious chance to go far because she's playing the game best of the 4 and the other 3 are all big targets. No info needed there.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-08-01, 04:04 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Alicia Calaway's Review of E7" |
Outfrontgirl--I basically agree with what you are saying here and think it is actually in line with my other posts for the most part. I do believe, however, that the use of the word preview is pretty accurate. When sportcasters discuss an upcoming game (a very good analogy you used), it is often called a "game preview." I am sorry I originally used the poor choice of word--review--when that was not what I meant. You also made a good point that Alicia may not know about the twist when she reviewed E5 even if she saw all of E4 as long as she did not get to see the promo for E5. That notwithstanding, I believe that the chance of giving away too much information is just too big a risk for MB and CBS to let Susan and Alicia see the episodes before we do. I still maintain that out of necessity, they let them in on certain aspects of the twist but not who got booted. Of course, we will never know for sure because we cannot ever rely on Susan and Alicia to tell us the truth if asked. Only if their speculative information is proven incorrect (e.g., if Lex, Ethan or Kimp were voted out before E7) would be know they did not see the episodes before the general public. Otherwise, for all we know they just made logical assumptions.
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King William 38 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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11-08-01, 07:30 PM (EST)
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18. "Random retribing because of delayed merge" |
I still think you're all wrong. (How's that for incendiary?)I am a strong proponent of a simple random draw realignment of 6 and 6. I think MB planned this ahead of time to cover his a-- legally, and that means it has to be something the veiwers would perceive as balanced and "fair." As someone else pointed out, it was possible we could have seen a 4 vs 8 team scenario by now. Almost as boring as pagonging. We know the change was put in place to a) boost saggy mid-game ratings b) shake up alliances to avoid pagonging. The ratings slump most in ep 7 and 8. So delay the merge, but this requires a leveling of the playing field so one team can't get completely eliminated. Whether its 4 to 8 or 5 to 7 or 6 and 6, everyone is broken up into brand new 6 v 6 at ep 5. Then they spend as long with the new tribe as the old, just as much chance for alliances to form, realign. So given all of that I think the realignment was meant as a redrawing of straws to even up the teams, if needed, and as the alliance buster. Well I hope this sounds as plausible to all of you as it did in that empty space betwixt mine ears. Guess we'll all know soon. King William
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-09-01, 10:28 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Alicia Calaway's PREview of E7" |
I was thinking about this as well, and I am not sure I even want to take anything that is in this preview to have any meaning any more. I know that this is Alicia and not Susan, but I keep going back to the "weaker people will be targeted" statement, that really seems to me to be a dead on lie. And I am just having a serious amount of trouble with believing anything that comes from anyone that was previously on Survivor for that reason as well as many other. It just seems to me like MB is playing us(and damn well I might add).At this point, logically, it seems to me that all of GenX is pretty well done, at the very least when it comes to the merger, and it is possible there may be only one or two of them that go into the merger(depending on when the merger is and depending Immunity). When the merger comes, it seems very likely to me that it will be pre-dominantly original Boran members, and I just don't see them leaving each other to side with anyone from GenX at this stage. Things could change drastically next week, and though KimP is by far the most under the radar of any of the GenXers, I still think that this means that she may make it to the final 7 but not likely the final four. I think Alicia is speculating without a lot of thought being put into it.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-09-01, 01:58 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Alicia Calaway's PREview of E7" |
You may be 100% correct, but at this stage, I think I will stick to not believing a word that they say. I would prefer to base my speculation on other evidence, since I believe they are told to say what someone wants them to say. It seems to me that at this point one way is as good as the other.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-09-01, 04:35 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Alicia Calaway's PREview of E7" |
You may be correct. I will be very interested to see, at this point. My only question is, if the new Samburu is to lose immunity next week and they have to vote someone off, who do you think will be the target? The way that I see it, it is not likely that the weaker person will be targeted but rather a split between the two tribes with each one targetting simply the one that they are hoping has votes(Lindsey and Tom perhaps). In this case, I would say that the weakest players will definitely not necessarily be chosen, and that in fact strength has nothing to do with the choice of who to vote out. So if that is the case(and I think that all that I have stated above has defintiely at least been eluded to in the show), the only way that a weaker person will be the target is if Boran is to lose the immunity challenge next week(which is all together possible). At this stage, I can not really say who will be the next target at the Boran tribe, but I think that with the merger seeming coming up soon(or maybe later who knows?) I think that it is likely that MamaKim, Frank and Teresa may attempt to remove either Clarence or Ethan, simply because it gives them a better chance after the merge. Under this logic, and the logic that Ethan would probably not mind seeing Clarence get the boot, it would stand to reason that in this tribe the strongest might very well be the target. So I guess, until I see more evidence going one way or the other, I see no reason to believe the statement that the weaker people will be the target. I think that Susan may have been warned about a delayed merger, and that she was speculating that because there is a later merger that it was likely that the weaker people would be targeted. However, things have happened slightly differently, in that Boran was willing to throw a challenge, and because the weak people were the instigators of that, I think that they are anything but the targets, and that it is possible that they may now be in control. So down the list, Samburu targets whoever it is that they think have the most votes(this has nothing to do with weakness), and Boran targets the ones that may hurt them later. According to this logic, the weak ones are safe next episode. I realize that there are plenty of other possibilities but this is certainly one of them, adn I think that there is no reason to take what Sue or Alicia or any of the past survivors have to say as the Bible.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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