LAST EDITED ON 11-03-01 AT 05:13 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-03-01 AT 05:09 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-03-01 AT 03:27 PM (EST)

Mark Burnett has revealed the Boran alliances (See EP4 insider clips). Clarence, Kelly, Kim J. vs Lex, Tom, Ethan. He has revealed it because after the "first 15 minutes" of EP5 the dynamics will change...

Pre-Twist Alliances:

Samburu (6)
Gen-Xers (4) Lindsay/Brandon/Kim P/Silas
OFA (2) Frank/Teresa

Boran (6)
(3) Lex/Tom/Ethan
(3) Clarence/Kelly/Kim J

Player Swap:
If "The Twist" is a player swap followed by two Immunity Challenges before the merge, the alliance that loses the least members in the next two weeks and is able to reunite after the merge will be in the best voting position for the balance of the game.

Early Merge:
If "The twist" is an early merge the strongest alliance will be the Boran Alliance that allows Frank and Teresa "behind enemy lines", giving that alliance (5), the Genxers (4) and the remaining Boran (3).

The preview for EP5...

A Survivor 1st: Every friendship, every alliance will be shattered, the survivors thought they knew the game but the game has changed forever.

...states that "every alliance will be shattered", which seems to rule out the "Early Merge".(eventhough it would solve the water problem)

Post-Merge Alliances:

Assuming two TC's before the merge at ten, which alliances could survive and reunite? It is also likely that a person considered a physical threat to win individual immunity post-merge will get booted off in EP6.(Clarence or Silas)

The Boran tribe is much more of a tribe than Samburu, which is really a tribe of 4, plus two outcasts. Even if two of the original Boran tribe get voted out before the merge, they would still have four members, plus Frank and Teresa.

So, even in the worst case, it looks like Boran will be in a good position after the merge.

It also looks like Silas has good odds of getting the Boot. He has previous votes and he is considered a threat for individual immunity. He is a logical target for EP5 or EP6.

So, assuming that strong males are targets and previous votes increase the likelihood of being targeted, let's see how the alliances shape up

Assume EP5 Silas goes, EP6 Clarence goes, EP7 Merge...

Gen-Xers (3) Lindsay/Brandon/Kim P
OFA (2) Frank/Teresa

(3) Lex/Tom/Ethan
(2) Kelly/Kim J

Possible scenarios:

Boran reunite to have advantage in split votes... 5-3-2

Frank and Teresa join either remaing Boran alliance to take control...5-3-2 or 4-3-2

New alliances form based on age old vs young ...old Frank/Teresa/Tom/Kim J/Lex vs. young Lindsay/Brandon/Kim P/Ethan/Kelly...5-5.

Edited to add: Of course all this post-merge speculation goes out the window if the merge is now postponed until we are down to 8 survivors...Survivor: "changed forever".

Krautboy