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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-29-01, 07:10 PM (EST) "Cannibalism Theory extended." I have seen a couple of threads toss around the cannibalism theory (Sambs lose ICs on purpose to oust elders). I'd like to expand and examine this possibility more. Main engine for theory: Episode #5 having a "twist", could that be that the Mall Rats throw ICs to oust elders? What would have to happen before, during and after the cannibalism for it to make sense? Before Cannibalism (Episode #4): Boran would have to lose the IC. This would make the teams moreso unbalanced; Boran-5, Sambs-7. Catalyst for Cannibalism idea: The Mall Rats may look ahead to see that if they still have 2-3 elders to the merge, then the elders may team up with the Borans to oust the Mallies first (because dislike of tribe members will supersede apathy of non-tribe members). They know that Frank and Linda would NEVER team up with them, but Theresa might. So they may be safer by cannabilizing Linda and frank, making good with Theresa and entering the merge 5-5. Episode #5 (The Twist): Mallies throw IC and oust Linda. Frank is a pack mule of course and therefore more useful for water-fetching and reward-challenge winning. Episode #6: Mallies throw IC again and oust Frank. Merge will now be 5-5. Supportive evidence: 1) Picture of Boran on mountain with five members, yup, that could be anytime in the next 3 episodes. 2) MB or JP said in an interview about Frank and Brandon (my paraphrase) that "...both live wires, outspoken, play game on own terms", I think there was also mention of a significant clash. I interpret this to be that we will see more of the Brandon vs Frank clashing to happen in the next couple of episodes, with no resolution between them and the resultant Frank ousting. 3) MB or JP also said in an interview that Clarence is "tough to beat" and made some Colby comparison. This may extend into individual challenges and perhaps the only way Boran would take Clarence into the merge is if they had no choice (Cannibalism scenario). Well, I think this is very heavy on speculation and weak on evidence so please do throw more supportive or dismissive evidence at it and we'll see how it holds up.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Cannibalism Theory extended. dabo 10-30-01 1    RE: Cannibalism Theory extended. big idiot 10-30-01 2        RE: Cannibalism Theory extended. dabo 10-30-01 3            RE: Cannibalism Theory extended. MDSkinner 10-30-01 4            RE: Cannibalism Theory extended. Dalton 11-01-01 5                RE: Cannibalism Theory extended. zzz 11-01-01 6  RE: Cannibalism Theory extended. Outfrontgirl 11-01-01 7    RE: Cannibalism Theory extended. zzz 11-01-01 8

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-30-01, 00:55 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Cannibalism Theory extended." I have to say that the cannibalism theory really doesn't play, in my opinion. At this point in the game there is just too much that remains undetermined to risk such a strategy, plus MB tends to cast competitive types for whom such a strategy would go against the grain. I think the Samburu alliance of Brandon, Kim P., Lindsey and Silas should be thinking they need to get rid of one or two more of their tribemates before the merge, if they don't get rid of at least one they leave themselves open to being flanked at the merge. So it really becomes a question of who would they want most to keep and why, and a question of who do they most need to get rid of and why. The best option for someone to keep and why would be someone they could trust not to jump ship to join an alliance with Boran, and at this point the person who would seem to answer that bill would be Teresa. On the other hand, if they don't think there is another Samburu who will stick with them, the option becomes one of keeping one who would probably be rejected by the Boran, which would come down to a question of whether they think Frank or Linda is more obnoxious. On the other other hand, the two tribes know very little about each other at this point, and the Samburu may be thinking Boran is as dysfunctional as they are, meaning they might be thinking of picking up a Boran defector or two at the alliance. But, to get back to where I started, there are so many indeterminable factors out there right now, I can't see anyone adopting a cannibalism strategy. Competitive types may decide to coast in certain circumstances, for instance Rudy in S1 basically knew he was protected from eviction from ep 8 to ep 12 so he didn't burn himself out in competitions he didn't need to win, but it's too early in the game for anyone to do that. "If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-30-01, 10:46 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Cannibalism Theory extended." dabo, I'm not sure if you read the first post completely. Dabo: "I think the Samburu alliance of Brandon, Kim P., Lindsey and Silas should be thinking they need to get rid of one or two more of their tribemates before the merge" This is the cannabalism theory stated in the first post. Dabo: "So it really becomes a question of who would they want most to keep and why, and a question of who do they most need to get rid of and why." This is the query in the first post. Dabo: "The best option for someone to keep and why would be someone they could trust not to jump ship to join an alliance with Boran, and at this point the person who would seem to answer that bill would be Teresa." This is the deduction in the first post. The remainder of your reply has some unique points: 1) Theresa may be too amiable (compared to Frank and Linda anyway) and she may defect to guarantee making it to the final 6. Frank or Linda wouldn't be so easily accepted into the Boran fold. 2) Mall rats may just figure that there is a "group doppleganger" of them in the Boran tribe and all will be one big happy kiddie fest at the merge. I agree that everyone was chosen for their competitiveness, the cannibalism theory embraces a higher level of competitiveness than we have seen yet; doing whatever it takes to win, including throwing some ICs. Dabo, thanks for replying, please don't misread my tone as negative, I was glad you took the time to read and respond, you brought up a couple of good points.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-30-01, 11:02 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Cannibalism Theory extended." I did read the initial post and understand it, perhaps I just didn't make myself clear. What I think is wrong with the cannibalism theory is that I cannot imagine anyone at this point in the game consciously adopting it. It could work out that Samburu loses challenge after challenge, but I expect those would be legitimate losses rather than a strategic decision on anyone's part. Other than that I find the cannibalism theory interesting and basically agreed with your statements. Thanks for concluding with the word-up not to read negativity; I wouldn't have anyway, but it was considerate of you to include that. "If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-30-01, 11:42 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Cannibalism Theory extended." Dabo, I have to agree with you at this point. To me this whole idea of purposely losing IC's is just crazy at best. I think each of these people, the OFA and the Mall Rats all would like to at least have a shot at winning the whole thing at the end, and in order to do that they are going to have to go in to the merge with an advantage of some sort. There is no way that any of them could guarantee that any single Boran would actually side with them and I would much rather take my chances with going into the tribe with an advantage and then start canibalizing after the other tribe has been voted off. That is what has worked in each of the last two rounds of Survivor and it would be hard to argue that it can work again if the Samburus can just get it together and work together when the tribes do merge. None of them are complete idiots(though some are pushing the envelope) and I think they will realize this, and at least attempt to go into the merger with an advantage. That is just speculation, but it makes sense to me.   Top

Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 11-01-01, 02:43 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Cannibalism Theory extended." I'll inject another "viewpoint" about the "Beady Bunch" (that is what I call the GXA) deliberately throwing their chance at winning Immunity just because they want to vote out a member of the OFA before the Merge. A.) As soon as the Samburu/Boran tribes meet up for the E-4 Reward Challenge; Boran will KNOW that Dr. CARL was the one booted off last week. B.) The ONLY times the two tribes get to interact and study each other is DURING the Challenges. C.) If the Borans (any or all of them) catch on to the fact that Brandon/Kim/Lindsey/Silas are deliberately slacking off to guarantee that the Samburu LOSE a Challenge; what reaction do you think this will cause among the Boran tribe??? Answer to C. above --- Boran as a Tribe would have to be shocked that these four young twits are NOT even trying to win for their own Tribe!!! What the heck kind of loyality, strategy is this?? I think Boran would consider this outrageous/selfish behavior to be the "kiss of death" for Brandon/Silas/Kim/Lindsey. And make it their first order of business to BOOT OUT these 4 people ASAP after the merge!!! After all Tribal loyality is the theme of this game prior to the merge. Any clique who goes against that basic principle is slitting their own throats and their shredding their reputations in the minds of the other players. Just my opinion, Dalton   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-01-01, 03:39 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Cannibalism Theory extended." Hi everyone-- I have been following this board for a long time but only just registered (please be nice) because I find this thread facinating. While, of course, none of us has any idea whether this strategy will be employed, it would possibly be a very good strategy. If Samburu loses IC tonight, however, it would be a reckless strategy (but I believe the original post assumes a Boran loss tonight). If Samburu know that there is no way that Frank and Linda would allign with the GXA (and Frank and Linda would have very good reason not to, knowing they would be eliminated once they were no longer needed, and they hate the GXA), it would be too dangerous to keep them around. They would almost certainly join with the remaining Boran after the merge and pick off the GXA members. While picking off GXA members, they would have time to see who in Boran is not in a tight alliance and bring them in if possible--like Clarence if he is left or the remaining female if only 1 female is left. I do not understand the comment that if they slack off during IC the other team is more likely to pick them off after the merge. Boran will try their best to pick off the members of Samburu no matter how hard or not they try. That is the point of an alliance. You go after the OTHER alliance first. So the GXA are in not more danger of being picked off by Boran if they try hard or obviously do not try at all. The key to this plan would be the loyalty of Theresa. If she could not be trusted, it does not work. But Theresa would be stupid to go over to the other side. She knows nothing about Boran and would almost certainly be booted once Boran got the advantage. Fifth place is still better than sixth which is the best she could likely get if she went to Boran Of course, for the plan to work, Samburu also has to win the tie break that first IC. However, risking a tie break is something Silas and the other GXA have already shown a willingness to do. If the speculation about a split into 3 or swap of members is correct, all of this analysis also goes out the window. So there are a lot of "ifs", BUT, if Samburu wins IC tonight and MB does not mess with the format with respect to tribal membership and merges, Samburu would probably be wise to get rid of Frank and Linda. Hope you liked my first post on SB.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-01-01, 04:06 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Cannibalism Theory extended." I apologize that this doesn't comment on everyone's thoughtful posts (I don't have time to give the care they deserve), but here's a thought I don't see being taken into account. As has been said by dabo, these Type A people don't think about losing, but about winning, and I do not think they would throw a challenge. There's an adrenalin during competition that kicks in for anyone and particularly Type A's (the Type A is per Burnett's comment that he always casts for this type). As Dalton (I think) pointed out, the other tribe is present. The GXA want to look strong against them as a matter of pride and to earn respect. These are not armchair type people who sit and plan chess moves several moves in advance; they are go-getter action types. Numerous times we Spoilers have thought of clever strategic moves that seemed obvious, even necessary, but the players didn't go there. We need to think, not 'what's the best strategy' but 'what will these particular people be likely to do?'--and I'm sure we all go on that principle, but it's easy to think more than the players. Back to the people involved-- Interviews with Kim Powers show she is weighing her impact in each and every challenge hoping to make a strong showing. When the team loses, she's happy it's the one she sat out, so no one can blame her. Does she sound secure in her alliance? No, she has to continually prove her worth. Brandon (or Silas) said their strategy was failing when Lindsey got sick, because they were playing to make the OFA look weak and the GXA strong and now one of them was weak. If they are only thinking of votes and are committed to each other, why would that matter? It must matter because in spite of the generation split, these people are in packs (like wolves) that are always looking to take out the weakest, sick member. They want to win, and to go into merge with the most people, the strongest people as allies. In this case, they also want the most FUN people, but that's not #1. Their interviews show that they believe the strong will survive and the weakest go, and the alliances will shift when it's established who are the best competitors. Shift why? Out of recognition and respect, because ultimately you want to be allied with the people who have their shit together. Jerri tried to keep Mitchell (weak) and boot the strong disliked person (Keith) and that's the point where her alliance lost its power, because Colby rebelled. I'm sure the Xers watched S2. Last TC, the Xers and OFA disagreed on the what defines having your act together, so they split, but I believe that's what counts and that losses in challenges are the kiss of death for anyone in this group. Winning is #1, and that's why they won't throw ANYTHING.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-01-01, 04:30 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Cannibalism Theory extended." I agree that is is very necessary to get into these particular people's heads to figure out what they will do. As others have pointed out, Amber was a fool in S2 not to turn on Colby and Tina once Jerri was booted. She had to know they were coming after her soon, but she said she did not trust anyone so she could not make a new alliance. I agree that these people watched S2 and learned from it. That is why if they win IC tonight it would be smart to get rid of Frank and Linda if they think they can keep Theresa in line. If they do not, it will probably be because they just have not thought about it. But if they do think of it, I think they will use this strategy. When the GXA said Lindsey being weak hurt their strategy, I think it meant they had a harder time getting Theresa to switch. It obviously did not mean they thought one of the GXA would cave because even with Lindsey being sick, they stuck together. Or more to the point, NOW they know they will stick together because they did at the most crucial time. Once getting this clear advantage, why would anyone give it back. Remember, post merger, it is individual immunity, so strength of the team becomes less important. Furthermore, people who say they would not like to look weak--I ask,look weak to whom? The members of the GXA would KNOW it was a strategy. If Boran thinks they are weak--who cares. As long as they win the first TC vote after the merger, it is irrelevant what they think, and what they think will not affect the outcome of that vote. As far as being too competetive to throw a competition--these people do not want to work any harder then they have to work. If they think they will be a stronger team after the merger without Frank and Linda, they would use their BRAINS over their BRAWN any time. This does not mean they will use this strategy. They may lose IC tonight which would make this a bad strategy. They may get the feeling Theresa would be VERY upset and be certain to betray them after the merger. They may just not think of it. But IF they win IC tonight and IF they think they have a good chance at keeping Theresa in line after the merger, this just might be their strongest play.   Top

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