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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-24-01, 07:33 PM (EST) "Episode Three "State Of The Spoiling" Recap Thread... " LAST EDITED ON 10-25-01 AT 04:13 AM (EST) Overview Sorry about the delay for this week's SOTS... I have been enduring a week of rather abysmal internet service with long outages and short periods of connectivity. Oh well, better late than never! There's some better evidence this week than last week. One challenge will involve rolling huge 'dung balls' across the country side and another may involve disrobing. Some speculation has the dung ball challenge as the IC because the last IC was non-physical. The other challenge may be a rehash of the old SOS challenge of Season 1 where Survivor's clothing and equipment are used to make a signal visible from the air. The level of visibility was the rather subjective criteria used to decide who won the challenge. It has been discussed that a subjectively judged challenge would not be a good choice for an IC. dangerkitty's Inside Scoop on Kelly dangerkitty has inside info on the scheduling on an interview for a former teacher of Boran tribe member Kelly. dangerkitty's Thread - 'Some inside scoop on Kelly' It seems that the teacher has already conducted an interview for a local television show and the teacher has been told that interview will be aired on Friday the 2nd of November which is a FRIDAY. If the Boran loose the next two challenges and they follow their established voting pattern of eliminating those who are perceived as liabilities during physical challenges, Kim J will be eliminated tomorrow and Kelly will be eliminated next Thursday which is the 1st of November. The scheduling of this interview is entirely consistent with Boran continuing to lose ICs and voting off first Kim J tomorrow and Kelly next week. VidCap Evidence: First: a big thanks to Bungler for his high quality vidcaps! The FIRST CBS preview clips show the following: Bungler's Vidcaps for First CBS Preview Sequence 1: One or more lions prowling in the dark... depiction is that the location is near the Boran camp. Sequence 2: Lindsey is shown kicking and twisting a tree (collecting firewood?). Probst voice over says 'Lindsey pushes herself to the limit'. Lindsey is shown lying on her back in pain saying 'I could take a broken bone over this'. Lindsey is being attended to by Kim P. Linda is shown to be nonplused over Lindsey's apparent agony. Sequence 3: Boran tribe members Kim J., Tom, and Clarence are shown wearing absolute minimum dress. Articles of clothing and equipment are shown arranged on the ground in curved patterns. Tom is shown wearing what appears to be a feather in his 'posterior dorsal cleavage' and running while flapping his arms. The SECOND CBS preview clips show the following: Bungler's Vidcaps for Second CBS Preview Sequence 1: Samburu are shown pushing a large red ball through the grass. Silas and Frank figure prominently. Frank is shown taking a head-first dive into the ground. Sequence 2: A very brief aerial shot of a large red ball and a large yellow ball being pushed across the grass and brush covered landscape The yellow Boran ball is in the lead. Sequence 3: A quick montage of the Boran crew pushing their ball. Big Tom takes a tumble on his side. Sequence 4: Lindsey is shown kicking and twisting a tree (per sequence 2 of first preview). Voice over states that "The rugged African terrain is taking its toll..." Not visual indication of an injury is given during the Lindsey tree kicking footage. Lindsey is shown lying on her back grimacing in pain once again and Kim P. is shown administering water. Lindsey says "I'd rather die than deal with this pain". Sequence 5: A montage highlighting the age-based alliance structures in Samburu: Kim P. and Lindsey exercising together + Silas cleaning his teeth + Brandon sitting on the cart followed by Carl+Frank (who can be heard saying "Barbie went down in Africa" followed by a quick jump cut to Lindsey looking miserable). A voice over states "it's the baby boomers..." (showing Carl, Linda, Teresa, and Frank in a group shot) "...versus Generation X". The THIRD CBS Preview new footage shows the following: Bungler's Vidcaps for Third CBS Preview New Footage 1: The tribes are shown on their pre-challenge colored mats. Boran noticeably distant from one another - Samburu are all arm-in-arm. New Footage 2: Possible shot of tribe members immediately after dung ball race (clothing is identical). Two Samburu are looking intently out of frame towards camera left. Tom has his shirt removed and appears to be winded. Ethan and Kim J. can be seen over Tom's shoulder. Kelly moves into frame from camera right an may be moving to embrace Kim J. The phrase "some are brave" is said in voice over during this sequence and a super-imposed graphic of the word "brave" appears. The graphic remains on screen to a jump cut of Boran at their camp preparing to begin or taking a break from camp work. Kim J. is not shown in this shot but it is a rather tight shot and Tom is also only even half-shown. New Footage 3: The voice over phrase "some are strong" and the super-imposed graphic "strong" accompany a shot of Silas working on breaking a branch off of a tree. Jump cut to Clarence saying "you are not going to beat a beast". New Footage 4: The ominous voice text "... but this Thursday, when hungry lions circle their camp..." accompanies more shots of prowling lions at night and a high shot of a tribal camp lit by three widely spaced fires. The voice over phrase "they might be dinner" accompanies a quick fade to black and the graphic of the word "DINNER!" Interesting Points from VidCaps: all Boran participate in dungball race. of Samburu, Brandon and Kim P. appear to sit out of dungball race. Boran is depicted as leading dungball race at one point. Lindsey suffers some sort of malady and receives disdain from some older tribe members. The ball challenge looks more physical than chariots of fire. Not good news for Boran. Other Evidence: Survivor Insider Clips First: a big thanks to sleeeve for his shelling out some coin to get the Survivor Insider Real Media package and for taking the time to create some excellent summaries of the feeds: sleeeve's Thread - 'Survivor Insider Clips' These summaries should prove invaluable for providing that extra insight into the various group dynamics as the tribe sizes get smaller and alliances become more important. EP4 and EP5 Titles and Previews Preview text and titles for EP4 and EP5 have been published: jtmorgan61's Thread - 'Ep 4 and 5 Previews' If Boran were to lose the first four IC's and be reduced to four tribe members by the end of EP4, we would be at a point where the much discussed possible three tribe split might occur. Editing has, thus far, depicted a growing rift in the Samburu tribe caused by Frank's premature and unintentional announcement of the 'Elder's Alliance'. Silas really hasn't come down on either side, but has told Lindsey to 'trust' him that he is really still with 'Gen X-ers'. With Boran reduced to 4 members and Samburu separated into two 4 member alliances, the time would be ripe for a logically motivated split of the 2 tribes into 3 during EP5. The title for EP4 is 'The Young and the Untrusted' and the preview text follows: A member of the Samburu tribe cracks under pressure as the generation gap continues to split loyalties among the young and old. Meanwhile 2 members of Boran tribe who are especially nervous about being the next to be voted out of the tribe make separate attempts to stay in the game. A trip to the watering hole becomes a dangerous stand-off with an animal known to be one of the deadliest in the area. In order to set the stage for a split of Samburu into two tribes in EP5 a great deal of narrative momentum will be need to be built up in EP4. The title of EP4 seems almost overt when viewed in the context of a possible schism in EP5. The Samburu member who 'cracks' might be Silas who can't stand the pressure of being a double agent and finally makes his stand with the younger tribe members. The title for EP5 is 'The Twist' and the preview text follows: You've seen the show And think you know the game But this being Survivor Things aren't always the same So tune in to see Who's the one they dismiss This is definitely the episode You don't want to miss MB loves to lay out a clue then misdirect with that clue. This little piece of 'tree mail' sounds like the 'twist' has to do with 'the one they dismiss', but maybe the true twist is a change in the rules - the three tribe split. Maybe the change hinted at by Les Moonves during his much discussed press conference. This speculation about EP4 and EP5 is useful here as it may substantiate a another Boran IC loss tomorrow night. Or... the 'twist' may just be an unexpected choice of victim at a regular tribal council. Uneven Merge Discussion To help offset some of the speculation that has arisen over the EP4 and EP5 titles and preview text, here is some much more straightforward discussion of the implication of unbalanced merges in the regular two tribe format: ivoryElephant's Thread - 'Uneven at merge doesn't mean its over' Lurking's Thread - 'Implications of Samburu domination' GT's Thread - 'Can we rely on established routines' Conclusion It is Webby's job to make the official prediction for the board so I will not make such a prediction here. The good efforts of everyone this past week have given Webby some excellent ammo to make his decision! Great work everyone!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Episode Three "State Of The Spo... SurvivorBlows 10-24-01 1  WOW Outfrontgirl 10-24-01 2  Nice, Ice!!! Krautboy 10-24-01 3    Sorry... I Can't Resist! IceCat 10-24-01 4        ARRRGHHH! George Tirebiter 10-24-01 5            I Strongly Feel a Three Tribe Split... IceCat 10-24-01 6                OMG--validation! George Tirebiter 10-24-01 7                    RE: "The Twist" turtle 10-24-01 8                        RE: "The Twist" Outfrontgirl 10-24-01 9                        RE: "The Twist" dabo 10-25-01 12                        RE: "The Twist" SurvivorBlows 10-25-01 15                        RE: "The Twist" AmberFan126 10-25-01 27                    RE: OMG--validation! PepeLePew13 10-24-01 10  RE: Episode Three "State Of The Spo... diamond 10-25-01 11    RE: Episode Three "State Of The Spo... dabo 10-25-01 13    I said 'anterior' and I mean 'anter... IceCat 10-25-01 16    RE: Episode Three "State Of The Spo... moonbaby 10-25-01 21  RE: Episode Three "State Of The Spo... SurvivorBlows 10-25-01 14    MB is a very creative person... IceCat 10-25-01 17        RE: MB is a very creative person... SurvivorBlows 10-25-01 18        RE: turtles suggestion weltek 10-25-01 19            Something's twisting, and I think i... George Tirebiter 10-25-01 25    Twist = Tiebreaker? Krautboy 10-25-01 20        RE: Twist = Tiebreaker? SurvivorBlows 10-25-01 22            Post Merge Defection Krautboy 10-25-01 23                Early merge theory -- don't discoun... NightScribe 10-25-01 24                    RE: Early merge theory -- don't dis... Bebo 10-25-01 26                        RE: SurvivorBlows makes sense.....a... Dalton 10-25-01 28                            RE: SurvivorBlows makes sense.....a... dabo 10-25-01 30                                RE: SurvivorBlows makes sense.....a... Dalton 10-25-01 31                                    RE: SurvivorBlows makes sense.....a... dabo 10-25-01 32                    RE: Early merge theory -- don't dis... Outfrontgirl 10-25-01 29

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-24-01, 08:18 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Episode Three "State Of The Spoiling" Recap Thread... " Excellent summary job Ice! ...hope those Internet problems of yours go away soon. -SB   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-24-01, 08:23 PM (EST) 2. "WOW" Look at this state-of-the-art memo format on the SOS... Had to comment on this visual masterpiece of a reference tool. Two new thoughts came to me while reading: 1) You mentioned how MB likes to put a clue in his rhymes: "Who's the one they dismiss"-- Dismiss is military term. Frank is the veteran. For Frank to be dismissed with this strong alliance would be a big surprise. 2) The point's been made that there are logically 3 tribes if Boran gets down to four. I can buy the division idea, but if I were MB I wouldn't go with logic, I would be evil! I would divide Samburu right smack even with 2 GenXers and Boomers and 2M/2W each tribe. Evil. See now, THAT would be a twist. Lindsey, Brandon, Frank, Linda Kim, Silas, Carl, Theresa... or some other variation. I do realize these points are both relevant to Ep 5 and we are on 3... but your post stirred up these thoughts. Thanks Ice! Don't think it won't happen just because it hasn't happened yet--Jackson Browne   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-24-01, 08:41 PM (EST) 3. "Nice, Ice!!!" Nice work Ice! I've been out of town this week and it sure is nice to come back to such a great resource... While I was getting caught up, I spent a little time pulling out some highlights and I apologize if they are repetitive, but maybe it will help to reinforce the key points this week... EP3: “The God’s Must Be Angry” Tom doing a “chicken walk” during the “SOS” reward challenge? Does this mean the reward is chickens? Are they dropped from a plane like a coke bottle in “The Gods must be Crazy”? Boran has unwelcomed visitors; because they won a reward challenge of live chickens? “A close call with lions awakens one of the tribe.” While one tribe member is caught between loyalties to two factions within the tribe, another tribe member takes the opportunity to cook more food for his "friends" while his "enemies" are at the water hole. Silas is “caught between loyalties”, while Brandon “takes the opportunity to cook more food for his friends”, Lindsay, Kim and Silas. This all leads up to someone “cracking” next week. One tribe member crashes from dehydration. Will she be able to continue? Lindsay “crashes from dehydration”, (nothing broken) and is able to continue. Boran after the IC. Is Tom disappointed or exhausted? Are Kim and Kelly reaching out to hug after their victory or just relieved that it’s over? Is Samburu getting instructions about TC in the evening or just being congratulated? Episode 4: Nov 1 - "The Young and the Untrusted" - a member of the Samburu tribe cracks under pressure as the generation gap continues to split loyalties among the young and old. Meanwhile 2 members of Boran tribe who are especially nervous about being the next to be voted out of the tribe make separate attempts to stay in the game. A trip to the watering hole becomes a dangerous stand-off with an animal known to be one of the deadliest in the area. “The Young and the Untrusted” …Kelly (the young), Clarence (the untrusted): the “two members of the Boran tribe who are especially nervous about being the next to be voted out of the tribe. Does this mean that mama Kim is still around and just not “especially nervous” or already voted out in EP3. Or are “The Young and the Untrusted” the younger Samburus, “untrusted” after cooking food while the elders were away fetching water? Or untrusted after losing the IC and voting off one of the Elders? Dangerkitty’s spoiler about Kelly’s public appearance /interview airing on local TV on Nov.2 gives a lot of redence to a Kelly boot on Nov.1, along with the need for a “twist” in Episode 5… "Any Change up when the merger takes place: split into 3 tribes? Mark: There's some unique changes... I cannot confirm or deny the 3 tribes thing, there are interesting twists that will make you laugh. " Episode 5: Nov 8 - "The Twist" You've seen the show And think you know the game But this being Survivor Things aren't always the same So tune in to see Who's the one they dismiss This is definitely the episode You don't want to miss This was posted on another board and I think it has some potential… “I really like the idea that MB splits the Samburu tribe in 2 to keep Boran in the game a little longer, and I hope that he decides the split to heighten the divisions in the teams--putting Frank/Teresa/Brandon/Lindsey in group one and Carl/Linda/Silas/Kim in the other. The only thing I can't resolve is how TC would be done, which was the sticking point in the summer discussion of 3 tribes.” Or an early merge at 12 which would create 3 alliances of 4 votes each: the young Sams, the old Sams and the Boran. Krautboy   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-24-01, 08:55 PM (EST) 4. "Sorry... I Can't Resist!" Tom doing a “chicken walk” during the “SOS” reward challenge? Does this mean the reward is chickens? Are they dropped from a plane like a coke bottle in “The Gods must be Crazy”? Remember WKRP in Cincinatti? On the occasion of an ill conceived Thanksgiving Day promotion... Les Nesmann: "Turkeys are plumetting from the sky like wet bags of cement... Oh, the humanity!" Mr. Carlsen: "... I swear... as God is my witness... I thought turkeys could fly..."   Top

George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-24-01, 09:36 PM (EST) 5. "ARRRGHHH!" LAST EDITED ON 10-24-01 AT 09:39 PM (EST) Ice, you ruined it for me! I was reading frantically through the end of kraut's post so I could say this very thing--and then I scrolled down far enough to see you'd beaten me to it! Ah, well. . . dare I claim "great minds" and all that? But you did Les Nessmann so well, I felt like I was watching it all over again. As for the SOTS: This REALLY helped me feel less scattered! Odd that I can be so anal about orderliness, yet unwilling to make it that way myself, if I don't have to. . . I only wish I had a better feeling for what is a trustworthy call and what is actually anti-spoiler propaganda. . . As for the "official" call on who goes--Webby, do you just go by the vote in the lobby, by the vote thread, a combination of the two, or your own gut feeling? I don't recall ever seeing how that actually transpires. GT Ugh. Edited to add (cuz ah fergot!): Wait a minute--people have been coming down on me all week for bringing up the 3-tribe split, and now you're all talking like it's a real possibility? I'd like to know if I should feel sheepish or cocky!   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-24-01, 09:44 PM (EST) 6. "I Strongly Feel a Three Tribe Split is Possible..."   Top

George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-24-01, 09:55 PM (EST) 7. "OMG--validation!" Even if it never happens, I suddenly feel such relief--I'm NOT crazy after all! Yipeee! GT   Top

turtle 23 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 10-24-01, 11:10 PM (EST) 8. "RE: "The Twist"" Is it possible that "the twist" might refer to the first-ever tie-breaker that couldn't rely on prior votes to decide it? If Samburu were to go to their first tribal council in Ep 5 (which is a distinct possibility), and Silas sides with the young'uns, then the tribe would face a 4-4 standoff...and NONE of us know how that would be resolved since this situation has NEVER happened before (and this being Survivor, things aren't always the same....) Given all the attention that the Samburu 'generation' gap has been getting, is it perhaps all a big lead-in to an Ep 5 'Showdown at Tribal Council'? Silas told Lindsay in Ep 2 that he thought they should vote for Frank - this is a stretch, but whoever said it earlier in this thread, 'dimiss' (other than being a convenient word to rhyme with 'miss') could be a reference to ex-military (and tribe wacko) Frank... I don't know...I'm not terribly convinced of this...but it is a possibility   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-24-01, 11:20 PM (EST) 9. "RE: "The Twist"" Turtle--very interesting and could well happen as things stand. The first thing they would do with existing tiebreak rules, of course, is to try to get the people who aren't boot candidates to change their votes. As AyaK reminded us with his new S1 Finale summary, that did happen once and Kelly did change her vote. I would expect some kind of sudden death challenge to determine the bootee in case of a deadlock. I was the one who mentioned "dismiss." In S2 the previews sometimes varied the words they used to say someone was getting the boot. I remember with Ep 9 (Jerri), for example, they used something stronger than usual... (can't recall exactly).   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 00:08 AM (EST) 12. "RE: "The Twist"" It would be neat to find out what the second deadlock rule is when the first deadlock rules fails; and one thing I think is certain is that MB isn't ever going to tell us anything, he'll wait until he has to show us and then we'll find out. As I see it these are the possibilities: 1. A game of chance; the two caught in the deadlock play "rocks, paper, scissors" or something, or their names are on papers in the ballot box and Probst or even Burnett himself pulls out one name and that player is gone. 2. A run-off challenge of some sort between the two players caught in the deadlock. This is what I'd prefer to see actually. "If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 00:25 AM (EST) 15. "RE: "The Twist"" >Is it possible that "the twist" might refer to the first-ever >tie-breaker that couldn't rely on prior votes to decide it? > > >If Samburu were to go to their first tribal council in >Ep 5 (which is a distinct possibility), and Silas sides >with the young'uns, then the tribe would face a 4-4 >standoff...and NONE of us know how that would be resolved >since this situation has NEVER happened before (and this being >Survivor, things aren't always the same....) This is a VERY good point turtle, and something I'd never heard considered until now. ...and I like this idea MUCH BETTER than the "third tribe" thing. ...maybe they have some kind of "stand on a pole" faceoff challenge between the two vote-getters. -SB   Top

AmberFan126 15 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 10-25-01, 03:39 PM (EST) 27. "RE: "The Twist"" I agree with what you are saying Turtle. I think it will be the first council where we have a totally deadlocked vote. And the dismiss thing is very convincing, I believed it the second I saw it. We shall see! =)   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-24-01, 11:59 PM (EST) 10. "RE: OMG--validation!" LAST EDITED ON 10-25-01 AT 00:04 AM (EST) >Even if it never happens, I >suddenly feel such relief--I'm NOT >crazy after all! Yipeee! LOL GT, I know the feeling... I'm feeling a lot more validated as well, because I was the one who came up with the far-out idea of splitting up the Samburus into two groups with 2/2 male-female, 2/2 mallies-oldies in each to go with the 4 (likely) male Borans to create a 3-tribe split after episode 4, and my idea didn't seem to go over too crazy in the thread where I posted it... OFG, that IS very interesting... excellent catch on the "dismissed" comment, I would be very interested to see if that has any significance for Frank leading to a boot. "What's wrong with her?" "Oh, it's gonna blow up, dude... in 5 minutes, dude. It's gonna hit the (bleep) ceiling." "It is?" "Oh yeah." (maniacal laughter) Anthony (talking to Adrian) on LC, Oct. 9/01   Top

diamond 2307 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 10-25-01, 00:02 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Episode Three "State Of The Spoiling" Recap Thread... " Wow, great summary, Ice. I gotta point out one tiny little thing though. I'm sorry, I know this really has nothing to do with the show or spoiling anything even close, but I can't help it (I tried to resist, I really did). I loved the euphemism 'anterior dorsal cleavage'. It should really be, however, posterior dorsal cleavage. If it were anterior, then it would mean he had a big ol' crack on the back of his head (which he may very well have - who am I to say). That's it. I'll be quiet now. "At times like these, I'm glad I live in a geodesic dome. Not that they're anthrax-proof or anything. They're just fun to live in." - The Onion   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 00:12 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Episode Three "State Of The Spoiling" Recap Thread... " ROFLMAO!!! Thanks, diamond, that one totally slipped under my radar, great catch! "If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 04:15 AM (EST) 16. "I said 'anterior' and I mean 'anterior'!!!" Why do you think he wears a hat all the time? Seriously, tho... thanks for correction!   Top

moonbaby 17120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 10:40 AM (EST) 21. "RE: Episode Three "State Of The Spoiling" Recap Thread... " LOL diamond! Did Ice did intend to call him a butthead? hmmm....   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 00:22 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Episode Three "State Of The Spoiling" Recap Thread... " LAST EDITED ON 10-25-01 AT 00:27 AM (EST) >If Boran were to lose the first four IC's and be >reduced to four tribe members by the end of EP4, >we would be at a point where the much discussed >possible three tribe split might occur. Editing has, thus I *REALLY* think we are unlikely to see three tribes. For starters, there is the logistics -- we'd need a third camp. ...and unlike the previous shows, preparing a campsite in Africa is not a trivial matter. The only way I could see this happening is if they had already prepared a post-merger campsite and instead decidde to use that as the 3rd site. ...but that would still screw up several of the future challenges they'd spent weeks designing (for example, to use an existing challenge as an example, a third, 8 foot dung ball wouldn't exactly be growing on trees, good luck trying to prepare one on short notice.) Yes, I know they look like huge, wireframed paper-mache things, but you get my point. I just think that LOGISTICALLY the idea that they suddenly decide to switch the game to a 3 tribe game after seeing the first 3-4 votes would be VERY DIFFICULT. The only way I can see a three tribe thing happening is IF IT WAS PLANNED ALL ALONG. ...if it wasn't planned all along I don't see it happening, and frankly, I don't see it having been planned all along -- if it ain't broke, then don't fix it. S2's alliance already proved to be not as strong as that of S1's (the entire aliance did not make it to the end, they kept picking each other off along the way) so there's no evidence that MB wouldn't think that S3's alliances wouldn't be even WEAKER. >With Boran reduced to 4 members and Samburu separated into >two 4 member alliances, the time would be ripe for >a logically motivated split of the 2 tribes into 3 >during EP5. I'm sorry, but I still don't see it... MB certainly didn't wake up one morning after the 3rd boot and say, "well, if Boran loses a FOURTH person, then we're going to split Samburu and make THREE tribes -- crew, you have 3 days to go create a third campsite, gather supplies, find extra camera crews to staff a third camp, hire another 100 soldiers to guard the area, re-design challenges to support 3 tribes, etc." ...I just don't see that happening. >The title for EP4 is 'The Young and the Untrusted' and >the preview text follows: > > A member of the Samburu tribe cracks under pressure > as the generation gap continues to split loyalties among the >young and old. Meanwhile 2 members of Boran tribe who are >especially nervous about being the next to be voted out of >the tribe make separate attempts to stay >in the game. A trip to the >watering hole becomes a dangerous stand-off >with an animal known to be one of the >deadliest in the area. > >In order to set the stage for a split of Samburu >into two tribes in EP5 a great deal of narrative >momentum will be need to be built up in EP4. > The title of EP4 seems almost overt when viewed >in the context of a possible schism in EP5. >The Samburu member who 'cracks' might be Silas who can't >stand the pressure of being a double agent and finally >makes his stand with the younger tribe members. I agree Silas is likely to "crack," but depending on how "crack" is defined, the same might also apply to Lindsey or Brandon -- maybe it just means that the person blows up at the Older Folks Alliance and seals their own doom. ...some might describe the Alicia/Kimmi incident as someone "cracking." I think the "2 Boran's worrying" desciption can certainly be seen as Clarence and the survivor of Kelly/Kim, but I think it's also possible to see this as Boran loses no one in Ep 3 and therefore in Ep 4 Kim and Kelly are BOTH NERVOUS -- feeling that the men will keep Clarence for his strength and one of them is still sure to go next. >The title for EP5 is 'The Twist' and the preview text >follows: > > You've seen the show And think you know the game > >But this being Survivor Things aren't always the same >So tune in to see Who's the one they dismiss >This is definitely the episode You don't want to miss > >MB loves to lay out a clue then misdirect with that >clue. This little piece of 'tree mail' sounds like >the 'twist' has to do with 'the one they dismiss', >but maybe the true twist is a change in the >rules - the three tribe split. Maybe the change >hinted at by Les Moonves during his much discussed press >conference. This speculation about EP4 and EP5 is useful >here as it may substantiate a another Boran IC loss >tomorrow night. Or... the 'twist' may just be an >unexpected choice of victim at a regular tribal council. As I've said, I really don't see an unplanned three tribe thing happening, and I also don't see it having been a planned event, so my money is on the later -- an unexpected event, perhaps something like surprise Bitchell's ouster in S2. >It is Webby's job to make the official prediction for the >board so I will not make such a prediction here. > The good efforts of everyone this past week have >given Webby some excellent ammo to make his decision! Oh sure, point out how all the pressure is on me! ...you know, I've never said I was above SUGGESTIONS -- seriously, that's all I do here, I act as a judge of sorts, I listen to alll the bootee agruments, review all the evidence, and then issue my ruling. My pick is entirely dependent on which line of thinking I am convinced to believe (of course, some of those lines of thinkings occassionally are my OWN, but hey that's just the way it works.) -SB   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 04:37 AM (EST) 17. "MB is a very creative person..." If you think outside of the box for a bit... For example... the dung ball... you don't need one 'more' dung ball you need one less. Run three heats instead of head to head on a shortened course. Final is a head to head run over the longer course. Winning tribe gets to pick which tribe goes to TC. It's a solution based on scheduling and scoring - not building more props. I plan to keep an open mind on the 3-tribe split thing... I just wish I had kept an open mind about Dicque getting a few votes from the jury in S1... or Jerry getting voted off in EP9 in S2... or the idea of a tribe losing the first two ICs in S3.   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 09:53 AM (EST) 18. "RE: MB is a very creative person..." LAST EDITED ON 10-25-01 AT 10:21 AM (EST) OK, let's extend that thought... now you have 4 races to show (3 timed heats, plus a fourth head-to-head race.) ...timed heats tend to be much more boring television, plus you now have to show places of four races, leaving that much less time for the rest of the show. I still do not understand Ice how you would think this would happen -- are you saying that you believe a PLANNED 3 tribe split is going to happen or that an UNPLANNED 3 tribe split (due to Sanburu winning all the time) is going to happen? MB's creative, sure, but he's not suddenly going to risk his entire production with having to find all the resources for a new tribe nearly overnight. -SB   Top

weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 10:13 AM (EST) 19. "RE: turtles suggestion" Ok turtle, you and I agree too much sometimes! I had also thought about a tiebreaker where previous votes couldn't be a factor with Samburu. The twist that will make us laugh that LM referred to could be some kind of silly tiebreaker. The part about it being a humorous twist is what lead me to throw out the 3 tribe at merger theory. There isn't much funny about that, unless they do it completely randomly in some crazy game. Now I want to take a moment to spout off. Is it just me, or is MB taking our fun out of this by providing next to no clues this season? We have to keep guessing, not basing our spoiler predictions on real solid evidence that gathers. We seem to have lost a lot of enthusism this season. MB is a rotten, rotten man for putting a damper on our party. And while I'm at it, dammmn that Shakes for leaving the Survivor boards high and dry, scrambling to get summary writers. Ok, I feel better now.   Top

George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-25-01, 02:41 PM (EST) 25. "Something's twisting, and I think it's my stomach. . ." >Is it just me, or is MB taking our fun out of this by providing next to no clues this season? I thought it was just me, but this may be the crux of our whole problem. . . I complained all last season that I thought MB had worked so hard to "spoil the spoilers" that S2 had much less thought given to logical editing and the final product was much less compelling than S1. Perhaps they've continued that trend and have lost sight of which part of the "formula" it was that worked so well in the beginning. As for the great Planned vs. Unplanned 3-tribe split rumor--I believe that first came up well before the show aired, so it MAY have been planned all along. Despite giving us a winner in S2 that we could all be happy with, I believe MB knew something had to change, to keep the "formula" fresh and renew interest. Granted, when they were being coy about the idea in the pre-show build-up it wasn't like we were talking about real-time events, as the first episodes were already in the can--but it definitely can't be attributed to scrambling once the low ratings became an issue. . . that fact could only affect whatever spin they try to put on the promos for subsequent episodes. Which brings me back to the same old problem--too little information and too many good arguments. . . Depending on what I've read last, my opinion on the vote this week changes--I am still stuck in a painful wait for some light bulb to go on over my head, and may have to end up tossing a coin. Calgon, take me away! GT   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-25-01, 10:17 AM (EST) 20. "Twist = Tiebreaker?" LAST EDITED ON 10-25-01 AT 10:38 AM (EST) SB, One "unplanned event" would be the Samburu sweep we've been discussing. If Samburu loses the IC in EP5 and goes to TC with no previous votes cast against anyone, there is a strong possibility of a 4-4 split down age lines. The "twist" could very well be how MB decides to resolve the deadlock! MB has been spending alot of editing time setting up the Samburu conflict by providing alot of storyline to the old vs. young alliances. We need to remember that he knows how the story ends and is in complete control of how we will get there. The three tribes is possilble, the early merge is possible, but a deadlock tiebreaker is an unexpected twist that neither MB or we expected. Burnett is just getting the most out of it he can and building up to it very nicely... Edited to add: Turtle and Weltek, just noticed your posts...Three heads are better than one? This much parallel thinking suggests that we are on to something here!! Krautboy   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 10:42 AM (EST) 22. "RE: Twist = Tiebreaker?" Kraut, I already said I like the deadlock tiebreaker vote idea as the "twist" -- I'm just not a fan of the three tribes thing. ...think about this -- the biggest compliant about Survivor has been the 5/5 merges that folks claim result in the next 5 episodes being very boring. The truth is that in S2, that didn't really happen -- JERRI was the third person out of the merged tribe and AMBER was the fifth. But anyways, that's beside the point. Say the merge goes as 8-2 or 7-3 -- then instead of having five boring episodes, we'd only be looking at 2-3 boring episodes before we'd all be wondering what will the "Samburu alliance" do now. ...but instead of showing us a united "Samburu alliance" right now -- something that if there was going to be a very lopsided merge, you'd think MB would be wanting to push in order to keep the viewers wondering about what is suddenly going to happen after the United Samburu Alliance has eliminated the 2-3 Boran straglers. But THAT'S NOT what MB seems to be doing -- he is clearly not presenting the Samburu's as united, the way he is presenting it makes it pretty clear to the viewer what would happen in Ep 9, 10, 11 once the Borans are gone. Frankly, I don't think MB would be so foolish as to give giving us so much information in Ep1, and Ep2 that could be carried to Ep9-11. Therefore I think we can say that SOMETHING happens to prevent a Samburu-vs-Samburu alliance battle in the later episodes -- it it truly was going to happen, I don't think he'd have edited so much information about internal Samburu strife into the first two episodes. Think about it -- they haven't been going to TC, so for the purposes of E2, all the info was filler. ...and I don't think he'd be including "filler" in Ep2 that gives the viewer a pretty good idea how episodes nearly two months from now will break down -- unless that's NOT REALLY how they will occur. I think one of a few things happen: 1) Boran makes a big comeback, 2) a Samburu sub-alliance (Gen X?) defects to Boran after the merge, 3) a three tribes thing happens after Ep 4, and therefore it's not really a Samburu-on-Samburu thing. ...of the three, I'd say that all THREE qualify was "twists." We've never seen the two tribes ever differ in size by more than 1 survivor. We've also never seen any members of one thribe "defect" to the other post-merge. Personally, I consider 1 or 2 more likely to occur than 3. I guess all I'm trying to say is that I can see MANY ways for this show to have a "twist" (especially given the lack of definition this word has and knowing CBS' previous track record regarding hype) without having to have a 3 tribe split. -SB   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-25-01, 12:40 PM (EST) 23. "Post Merge Defection" Samburu has been able to present a united front to the competition and have worked well as a team in challenges. Once the competions become individual, the divisivness that MB has shown us takes over. Regardless of the split at merge, 8-2, 7-3, or 6-4, the weaker of the Samburu alliances, as well as the remaining Boran, have nothing to lose and plenty to gain by teaming up against the stronger of the two Samburu alliances. MB has spent alot of time developing the Samburu split, not because they wipe out the Boran and take on each other, but because the split becomes a critical element at the merge . Last season Amber could have saved herself by making a move, but she didn't. This time I think it will be different... Carl and Tom look to go far. This could mean that the mall alliance takes out Frank (who goes after the elders lose the tie-breaker twist?) and/or Linda, leaving Carl and Teresa to merge with the remaining Boran, which probably include Tom. So, I'm with you Webby, no Three Tribes, no early merge. But some kind of "twist" (maybe a tie-breaker), that leads up to a post merge defection...should be interesting! Krautboy   Top

NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-25-01, 01:28 PM (EST) 24. "Early merge theory -- don't discount so soon" Krautboy -- Please don't discount the theory of an early merge so easily! It hadn't occured to me before, but when I read your post, it suddenly made a lot of sense. For all of the reasons Webby posted, I simply don't see a three tribe split. However, the tree mail (is it tree mail or a clue to viewers?) states "you think you know the game" -- the "you" being a direct address to whom? To viewers? To the Tribe? If it's a direct address to the tribe, then that means that it is a twist orchestrated by producers, and not one that naturally happens during a standoff at TC. Jiffy and MB have hinted that there will be twists, but that they will not mess with the format of two tribes voting someone off every three days. Sure, this could be a lie, but MB has been quoted several times as saying he has a "formula" that works. A three tribe split would not only be a logistical nightmare, it would completely alter the "formula" MB is so proud of. An early merge, however, could provide just enough of a "twist" to keep the game interesting, without messing with the formula too much. Let's not kill this theory yet. If the 3 tribe thing is getting consideration, certainly an early merge in ep 5 should be considered as well. that's all. Fighting illiteracy by day and writer's block by night   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 02:47 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Early merge theory -- don't discount so soon" >However, >the tree mail (is it >tree mail or a clue >to viewers?) states "you think >you know the game" -- >the "you" being a direct >address to whom? To >viewers? To the Tribe? > If it's a direct >address to the tribe, then >that means that it is >a twist orchestrated by producers, >and not one that naturally >happens during a standoff at >TC. > >Jiffy and MB have hinted that >there will be twists, but >that they will not mess >with the format of two >tribes voting someone off every >three days. Sure, this >could be a lie, but >MB has been quoted several >times as saying he has >a "formula" that works. This is exactly why the 4-4 tiebreak theory makes so much sense to me. We think we know the game, between what we've seen in the first two and in the episodes of S3 so far. But we have no clear answer on how a tiebreaker would be handled if no one changes their vote and the previous votes are tied. We can only speculate, but it's a safe bet that MB has had that possibility figured in his formula since S1. I think if the message was directed to the Tribe, it would have said "them" instead of "you". By phrasing an episode preview in the form of a tree mail, I get the distinct impression that MB is getting ready to play a game with us, the viewers.   Top

Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-25-01, 03:46 PM (EST) 28. "RE: SurvivorBlows makes sense.....add a few comments...." Not to say that all (or some) of the other posters in this thread don't have good ideas; but: MB isn't going to drastically change his proven format. The idea (where ever it came from) that BORAN continues to LOSE all four of the first four Immunity Challenges is NOT good TV. Also that Boran --- who has already booted two women (Diane/Jessie), will continue within the NEXT two episodes, to kick off Kim J. (Mama Kim) and then Kelly --- Leaving Borans as a four MAN alliance of Tom/Lex/Ethan/Clarence is really BAD TV. Many audience viewers LIKE the Boran tribe and watching them slaughter all their women during the first four episodes is a big-time TURN OFF for the show. Surely MB knows this!!! I think most viewers will be relieved and refreshed tonight when Samburu LOSES the Immunity Challenge and has to got to TC and vote someone off. It will still be Samburu 7 with Boran 6...but it will keep some suspense going forward instead of one tribe being constant losers!! (Where is the "viewer interest" in Boran doing nothing but losing while Samburu struts???) That brings me down to WHO in Samburu gets the boot --- Brandon who is generally lazy and because he DARED to cook food without "permission" (these people are totally serious about their food as Clarence has learned) ----- or Lindsey because she is tempting Silas to waffle in his allegiance AND because Lindsey is sick and pretty much useless in general. Dalton   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 04:09 PM (EST) 30. "RE: SurvivorBlows makes sense.....add a few comments...." I think these gender and generational alliances are the absolute dumbest things these players could have done to themselves. Tom, Lex and Ethan would be smart to pull Kelly into their alliance, and if Silas is smart he'll pick who he wants for his own alliance pulling who he wants out of the kids and the boomers. Dalton, everything you say about "good TV" is valid, but MB cannot make those decisions for the players. An uneven merge happened in the U.K. Survivor and, even though I only got to read the official summaries online, that show actually became interesting because of that (prior to the merge it seemed rather tedious to me). Anyway, it seems to me the two Samburu who are most at risk are Brandon and Frank, because each is very annoying in his own special way. Lindsey is making a good pitch at becoming very annoying as well, her paranoid soap opera in episode 2 could just be the start of another televised mental breakdown (such as happened on BB1, which is another one I only managed to read about). "If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-25-01, 05:01 PM (EST) 31. "RE: SurvivorBlows makes sense.....add a few comments...." >Dalton, everything you say about "good >TV" is valid, but MB >cannot make those decisions for >the players. An uneven >merge happened in the U.K. >Survivor and, even though I >only got to read the >official summaries online, that show >actually became interesting because of >that (prior to the merge >it seemed rather tedious to >me). Dabo...I've already argued IN FAVOR of MB dropping his twice used "Merge even at 6/6" in the other speculation thread here. I think the Tribes WILL merge at least 7/5 in S-3...but still doesn't mean that Boran doesn't WIN the IC tonight!! In fact I think Boran loses in E-4 and boots Mama Kim. >Anyway, it seems to me the >two Samburu who are most >at risk are Brandon and >Frank, because each is very >annoying in his own special >way. IMO, Linda, Carl & Teresa are NOT letting Frank go because at least he gets things done; whereas Brandon is wasted space. If Kim P., Lindsey and Brandon want to vote out Frank; Silas is going to have to join them. If you were Silas and wanted to KEEP winning IC's would you boot Frank or Brandon? (DUH). >Lindsey is making >a good pitch at becoming >very annoying as well, her >paranoid soap opera in episode >2 could just be the >start of another televised mental >breakdown...... Yes, same theory if Linda, Carl, Frank and Teresa want the drama queen Lindsey gone tonight Silas would be an idiot to fight them on it. Poor Silas has already had to tell Lindsey when she confronted him "Trust me"...(LOL @ men who say "trust me"!!). If Lindsey is too sick to be a team player --- she and Diane and Jessie will have a lot to talk about back at the ranch!! Dalton   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 05:21 PM (EST) 32. "RE: SurvivorBlows makes sense.....add a few comments...." lol "men who say 'trust me.'" If I was Silas I would ditch Lindsey first chance I had (it's just a game), but I'm not Silas. Frankly, were I playing the game my criteria for deciding who to vote off at this stage would include "who do I definitely not want on the jury." Flakes like Lindsey, Greg, and Jerri would be in my crosshairs very quickly unless I needed them around for some reason. You're right, annoying as he is Frank does get the job done; I expect it will catch up to him eventually, though -- who knows, given enough practice he might even become actually amusing. "If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 04:08 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Early merge theory -- don't discount so soon" NScribe-- I totally agree when you say >>it is a twist orchestrated by producersthat it is a twist orchestrated by producers. The three quotes by MB, JP, and LM combine to indicate that the production wanted to throw in a curve that would prevent the players (and the audience, as a result) from playing the game by rote because they thought they had it all figured out. I do not trust any of these people in their PR, but I do think they want to keep their credibility (such as it is) and will not make quotes in interviews that can be thrown back at them as lies. I don't know what the curve is. An unexpected tie-break rule could well be the twist in Ep. 5, but it's not THAT big a curve and it doesn't qualify as a "change" in the rules. Just because there hasn't been the situation doesn't mean the rule hasn't been in place. I also don't buy the 3 tribes thing any more than Webby--certainly not in 3 camps. It's not feasible to send 4 of the people to a brand new camp in this situation, as it would be totally unfair to stress them out with a new location--especially with the animals prowling. I haven't seen this pointed out, but with the animal/sentry situation there is a lower limit to any one tribe's numbers for safety reasons. Not to mention the water foraging and carrying. These tribes need numbers to function. For that reason I could see an early merge if Boran lost too many people to continue as a viable tribe. Theoretically they could get down to only 2 people by the merge--clearly that would be unsafe as well as creating problems with planned challenges that called for larger numbers to participate. MAYBE they could merge into one camp at Ep 5 and compete as 3 separate tribes, but I agree with Webby that would require a whole different approach to the challenges and if it happens I expect it to be planned well in advance rather than a spontaneous response to an unforeseen imbalance. I would be more likely to believe in an early merge to Samburu camp, which would indeed shake things up. I did note that MB's quote about changes was in a response to a query about breaking up alliances. He said you can't actually break them up (Stacey is listening) but you can throw in curves (not an exact quote). NS, the quote you give from MB-- >>they will not mess with the format of two tribes voting someone off every three days. I should check before posting (but don't have time)--but my memory is the format he won't mess with is ONE TC and one bootee every 3 days. Again, I agree with Webby that the TC's would get too small too quickly if you shift into 4-person tribes. Note to Krautboy: I really like your reading of Young and Untrusted as referring to the 2 Boran. I had assumed it meant Samburu, but that fits perfectly. Don't think it won't happen just because it hasn't happened yet   Top

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