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Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-23-01, 02:09 PM (EST) "Implications of Samburu domination" If Samburu were to grab a big personnel lead over Boran en route to the merger, it would seem that Silas's chances of voting with the younger members would increase. Normally, one's challenge strength is a major factor in determining whether one makes it to the merged tribe. Silas apparently knows this. It's safe to say he also knows that the older members collectively have more ability than the younger ones. As long as the need to win the challenges is pressing, Silas might want to keep the more capable ones. Let's imagine, though, that Samburu manages to win the first four IC's. Would the need to keep the strong members be as pressing at that point? Most likely, no. The chance that siding with the younger members could weaken the tribe in the remaining IC's may be one thing that keeps Silas from committing himself to them. Having a big lead over Boran takes away this obstacle, making it more likely that Silas will vote with the younger members in Samburu's first TC. A huge Samburu lead seems to devalue the apparent worth of the older members' strengths, but what qualifies as a huge lead for Samburu? It's normally in a tribe's interest to win a majority of the IC's so it can be a majority in the merged tribe. Thus, there should be at least 6 in your tribe left after team competitions are done. It follows that there shouldn't be more than 4 left in the other team. A tribe achieves majority status once it reduces the other tribe to 4 members. Further IC wins beyond this point are comparatively less important. Members once thought indispensable for the IC's no longer will be such once it becomes clear that their tribe will be the majority. If a tribe is winning at a pace that will give it at least a 7-3 advantage at the merger, it can be said to have a huge lead. In all likelihood, Samburu will eventually go to TC sooner or later. It would be good for the younger members if this happened later rather than sooner - by then, the Samburu lead will be so big that Silas wouldn't be thinking of keeping the strong anymore. For the older members, losing early would help their chances of making Silas see things their way. If Silas opts to oust one of the younger members, the elders have control until the merger.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Implications of Samburu dominat... MC_Hampster 10-23-01 1    RE: Implications of Samburu dominat... TaurusII 10-23-01 2  RE: Implications of Samburu dominat... AmberFan126 10-23-01 3    RE: Implications of Samburu dominat... HobbsofMI 10-24-01 4        RE: Implications of Samburu dominat... TaurusII 10-24-01 5

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MC_Hampster 105 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-23-01, 03:16 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Implications of Samburu domination" LAST EDITED ON 10-24-01 AT 02:16 AM (EST) by SurvivorBlows (admin) >It's safe to say he also knows that the older members collectively >have more ability than the younger ones. >The chance that siding with the younger members could weaken >the tribe in the remaining IC's may be one thing that keeps >Silas from committing himself to them. I completely agree with your line of thought, but I think your conclusion is way off because of your first assumption. I think it's false to say that collectively, the older members give the tribe strength. I think Lindsey is one perfect example. She's been kicking some butt on these physical challenges and I think Silas sees that. -MC   Top

TaurusII 53 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-23-01, 04:36 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Implications of Samburu domination" I'm not sure the Elders' value changes that much with Samburu dominiation. If Silas votes with them (even this time, when ths split could be anything from 4-6 to 7-3), then the Elders cannot be outvoted until the merge, and will merge as the largest voting block (Boran Males at most 3, Boran Females at most 2, and Clarence as a wild card, if he makes it). If Samburu loses every remaining pre-merge IC, then Silas will be voted out pre-merge (unless he can break the Elders alliance, which seems unlikely). If Samburu wins even one, then he should make it to the merge (barring accidents or stupidity that cause him to be removed). If, however, Silas votes with the Mallrats, he is risking his survival on a crap-shoot tiebreaker (say, just for example, 4 votes for Brandon and 4 for Frank). If the Elders win this tiebreaker, it seems unlikely that Silas will survive the next Samburu TC. Thus, only if Samburu wins the all the remaining IC would Silas make it to the merge, and even then, the largest single voting block will be antagonistic to him. The interesting possibility, of course, is if the Mallrats win the tiebreaker. Then, they could whittle down or eliminate the Elders block and emerge (if they can hang onto Silas) as the largest single voting block. Lindsey's rumored premature medical departure could change all this, but of course if it happens Silas couldn't know about it at this point. So, regardless of the final merge composition, Silas has the choice of: (1) Vote with Elders, win one pre-merge IC, & don't do anything stupid - merge with a friendly large block (4), maybe a small hostile block (0-2), and one or two smaller blocks(3/2-3/0) from the other tribe OR (2) Vote with Mallrats, win the tiebreaker - merge with maybe a hostile block (0-3), a friendly block (3), and one, two, or 3 blocks (3/2/1, 3/2-3/0) from the other tribe OR (3) Vote with Mallrats, lose the tiebreaker, & win all remaining IC - merge with a hostile large block (4), a small friendly block (2), and a block (3) from the other tribe Comments/Discussion? )O   Top

AmberFan126 15 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 10-23-01, 09:57 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Implications of Samburu domination" Actually, the younguns best bet probably would have been losing the first challenge. At that point, Carl hadn't formed his super tight alliance, and Frank probably would have been booted. I personally still don't think Silas is 100 percent with the oldies anyways. They showed us that alliance SO much last episode...it just makes me think it will fall even faster.   Top

HobbsofMI 16065 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-24-01, 00:04 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Implications of Samburu domination" Hi, all.....been lurking for a long time but just had a thought....with all the speculation on 3 tribes what if they are there when Boran is so far down. 4 old one's, 4 young one's, and 3 Boran.....Think I've seen someone on here or on another of the 30 msg boards have said it but it gets no support. Would that be the twist in Ep. 5? Just a thought....thanks.   Top

TaurusII 53 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-24-01, 12:05 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Implications of Samburu domination" Hobbs, It keeps getting brought up and keeps getting discredited. Basically all the fuss appears to be tied to what amounts to a "No Comment" response to the question, which gives little to go on. Is it "We did that, but I'm not going to tell you because that would spoil the surprise"? Or is it "We didn't think of that, but we don't want to tell you that"? Unless somebody comes up with something new and more substantial, the debate will probably continue to try to determine if "No Comment" means "Yes" or "No". JMHO )O   Top

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