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"Let's get this party started"
sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-07-01, 07:37 PM (EST)
 
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"Let's get this party started" |
All right, guys... it's time to ge this spoiler board moving...Let's see if we can start to put Ep1 together...
First... we have the Official Preview... direct from CBS... are you ready for this:
"Question of Trust"
<no description available>
Original Airdate: October 11, 2001.
Yes... that's right... there is no way to describe Ep1... some help that is...
But... we have the title "Question of Trust"... which sounds like it may play a role in the first episode... but more on that later... Episode One: "A Question of Trust" Jeff Probst opens the series by introducing the tribes aboard a small, open air bus... "these 16 people are about to... blah blah blah... no spoiler value" Then, each person mysteriously takes 30 seconds to dismount the bus, while we are introduced to the Samburu tribe (who will always wear red) and the Boran tribe (who will always wear yellow) and treated to a few images of the Survivors in their natural environment, back in the US. Finally, just when you thought there couldn't be any more introductions, the opening credits roll, introducing the 16 contestants for a second time. *sigh*... I guess we should skip past the boring stuff and get to the spoilers... here we go... my official prediction for the first challenge (brace yourself): The first (unofficial) challenge: find your camp (betcha didn't see that one coming). Debb... er... I mean Diane... leads the way at a "postal worker's" pace (which might cause the rest of the Boran tribe to go a little postal, if you know what I mean).
 In the mean time, it appears that Frank is Mr. Map Man for the Samburu tribe... probably securing his spot as bossy, unliked leader (mental note: when on Survivor, do not admit you can read a map).
 After reaching their respective camps, we have some speculation that the tribes will find a cart at each of their camps... which they may need to build a wall of thorns (oh yeah... and gloves, too... thorns are sharp!). Blah, blah... someone doesn't pull their weight... we've seen this before... let's skip straight to immunity: Immunity challenge: "Chariots of Fire" (well... that's what some guy at EZ claims it's called... and who am I to dispute a one-time poster who claims to know the results of a challenge???) Anyway... we have these pics of the immunity challenge: Jeff apparently handing the immunity idol to Boran:
 Boran apparently leading the race:
 Well... thank god Inside Edition and TV Guide were there to tell us who wins the first IC... that was easy... hmmmmmmmmm... almost too easy. TIME OUT!!!
These aren't real reporters... Mark Burnett has them in his back pocket... just look: -They were there for the IC, but they won't tell us who won.
-They agree to give MB final approval BEFORE publishing their stories.
-Last season, they knew who was booted first and second, but kept it under wraps.
-If they leak any info, or fail to comply with MB's rules, they won't be allowed on site for S4 (and he won't give them any interviews, either). Therefore, what we have is a MB publicity machine... not a set of impartial reporters... let's take a look at those vidcaps again, with this in mind. time in Each year, Probst does a "touch the idol" thing, right before the first IC... Apparently the idea is to psych up each team for the competition that's about to begin... MB's publicity machine apparently released a pic of Boran touching the idol, coupled with a pic of Boran in the lead... sounds like typical MB misdirection... so here comes the big question: First discussion Topic: Who wins the first immunity challenge? (Personally, after all that misdirection, I think it must be Samburu... but you're welcome to disagree.) Okay... now here's the other part I found interesting: The title of this episode is "Question of Trust"... In the previews, we have a scene with Lex apparently leading his tribe in a discussion:
Lex (to Boran): We're pissed off, and we now need to deal with a situation where we were starting to build trust, the trust has been broken, and it needs to be built from square one. Second discussion topic: What is the issue of trust that has been raised in the Boran tribe? Third Discussion topic: Is this discussion the reason for the title, and if so, does this discussion have an eventual bearing on the first tribal council? (And I don't have answers for these questions, yet... what do you think?)
You never know what might be up my sleeeve... 
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LowRent 49 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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10-08-01, 00:29 AM (EST)
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1. "Let's get this party started quickly, right?" |
Gotta agree with ya sleeeve. Look at the big smiles on the red team as Jeff holds the immunity idol. They don't look like a team that just lost immunity. My guess is that that vidcap was taken pre-race. If you remember last season, the first challenge was for both immunity and reward (fire). I would guess the first challenge would be along the same lines. Remember fire = life, blah blah blah. The carts seem to be an integral part of the first challenge as well. Perhaps, a cart is part of the reward as well. Now, we've seen a fire at the Samburu camp, in the vidcap of dentist Carl picking at his feet, there is small firepit in the background; the cart is also present. I can't really tell if there is a cart at the Boran camp--there seems to be some kind of caravan in the background of the Lex (to Boran) photo. Second, what would "piss off" the Boran tribe the most? Losing the first immunity challenge.....not having fire.....having to sleep in shifts since without fire you have to keep a sentry to watch for predatory animals....getting stuck with the sorority chick and Susan Hawk II on your team (oops, that one slipped out) Since the title of E1 is "A Question of Trust," you gotta believe that the Lex speech is a fairly important factor in resolving some dispute within the tribe. My next question: Is every Boran member present during Lex's speech? I don't see Clarence or Kim in the photo. Are they just out of picture or are they conveniently away from camp while the others strategize? My belief is that the Boran tribe loses the first immunity challenge; Lex's speech will be an important factor in deciding who is booted. Peace
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-08-01, 01:16 AM (EST)
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3. "Face Time" |
You bring up an important point that I want to clarify (for others that may be reading this thread).Probst said in an interview that the first bootee would be obvious due to that person's face time in the episode. Now... if we look at the preview, Diane (and Lex) from Boran and Frank (and Lindsay) from Samburu seem to be featured. I put Lex in parenthesis because his preview face time has to do with trying to solve the tribe's problem, and Lindsay's has to do with her period (which is what upsets Frank... hence his face time). Therefore, IMO, Diane and Frank are the focus of the preview at the end of EpZero... However, we've seen numerous cases where face-time in the preview is unrelated to face-time in the episode, so I'm not sure if we can rely soley on this for "proof".
I like your suggestion that the loss of trust might have something to do with standing watch (which is also mentioned in the preview)... a definite possibility.
You never know what might be up my sleeeve...
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-08-01, 02:24 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Let's get this party started" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-09-01 AT 00:01 AM (EST)>"Question of Trust"
><no description available>
>Original Airdate: October 11, 2001.
>
>Yes... that's right... there is no
>way to describe Ep1... some
>help that is...
>
I think this is obviously meaningless, spoilerwise. At this point in time MB wants to generate interest, let's not think everything relates to online spoilers, kay. That said, I think MB knows a good thing when it comes his way, whatever he says about online folks should be taken with a grain of salt, that's my opinion. >The first (unofficial) challenge: find your
>camp (betcha didn't see that
>one coming).
>Debb... er... I mean Diane... leads
>the way at a "postal
>worker's" pace (which might cause
>the rest of the Boran
>tribe to go a little
>postal, if you know what
>I mean).
> Clearly has no importance except Diane separated herself from everyone, but as an older player she had to emphasize early that she is not weak. >Jeff apparently handing the immunity idol
>to Boran:
>
Yeah, right, I think the smiles tell it all, this is clearly a promo shot that has no importance whatsoever.
>
>Boran apparently leading the race:
>
Again, huh? This is clearly the start of the race, not an indicator in any way. >TIME OUT!!!
>These aren't real reporters... Mark Burnett
>has them in his back
>pocket... just look:
>
>-They were there for the IC,
Um 'scuse me, these are real reporters, they just know that entertainment reporting is a whole different animal from real reporting. I think we should be wary of confusing promo hype with attempts to divert online spoilers, honestly. MB knows a good thing when he sees it and fanatics, bashers, spoilers online are a good thing, it is all audience stuff to him and everyone in the audience is important.
>Okay... now here's the other part
>I found interesting:
>The title of this episode is
>"Question of Trust"...
>In the previews, we have a
>scene with Lex apparently leading
>his tribe in a discussion:
>
>
>Lex (to Boran): We're pissed off,
>and we now need to
>deal with a situation where
>we were starting to build
>trust, the trust has been
>broken, and it needs to
>be built from square one.
>Second discussion topic: What is the
>issue of trust that has
>been raised in the Boran
>tribe?
>Third Discussion topic: Is this discussion
>the reason for the title,
>and if so, does this
>discussion have an eventual bearing
>on the first tribal council?
>
I don't think this has anything to do with immunity, actually. What I think it probably has to do with is either team building or camp priorities. There are too many people here for an alliance.
edited to make more sense, and to delete an embarrassment, honestly. Sorry, sleeeve, the synapses just weren't clicking when I posted this. Hope what I was trying to say makes a bit more sense now.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-08-01, 08:53 AM (EST)
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6. "who gets the ax?" |
I agree with you, with all the misdirection Samburu wins the immunity. I don't think MB is trying to "throw off the spoilers" as it were, I MB knows the general viewing audience will assume from the promo clips that Boran wins the immunity challenge, and this gives him a chance right from the start to show how unpredicatable SURVIVOR III is going to be. For some reason people like surprises like this.The question then is who on Samburu gets the ax. My initial reaction was that "the trust has been broken" wasn't much help to us since we have no idea what incident this could relate to. After further consideration however, I agree "the trust has been broken" angle will in fact be used as a RATIONAL for someones ouster. Typically in the first couple of rounds of this game, the players are looking for any reason at all to pick SOMEONE OTHER THAN THEMSELVES to vote out. Most of the early votes I think went 7-1 (Sonja may have been the exception). In my view 4 of the Samburu look to be indifferent to Lex's "trust" speach leading me to believe they have already made up their minds and will use the trust issue to make their decisions.
The 3 players I think are in danger are: 1) Lex (he's trying to save his own neck, knowing Kels failure to stand up for himself led to his ouster). 2) The girl in the white hat (is she crying). 3) Whoevers missing from the pic (loners don't last long, especially when the group has an excuse to ax them). I'm in a rush so I'll figure out who's missing in the pic and who's in the white hat after work.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-08-01, 12:41 PM (EST)
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11. "No one is missing..." |
LAST EDITED ON 10-08-01 AT 12:46 PM (EST)Reviewing the videotape of the preview show the following images of Clarence and Kim J. are part of "trust speech"...
The lighting, serious faces, and shelter in the background are all consistent with the Vidcap of Lex talking to the tribe. Clarence and Kim J. are just sitting out of the frame to the right(notice Kelly's shoulder with black strap behind Carl), but it looks like Lex is looking over at them. So, as we do our analysis, I think we have to assume that all eight tribe members are there. Question: is the "trust" speech on the second day before the Challenge or the third day before Tribal Council? Since all eight appear to be present, it is most likely NOT a speech about who to boot. More likely an internal problem dealing with standing watch, boiling water, etc. I tend think this is Lex's attempt at a pep talk before they go to the Challenge to try to pull the tribe together. It also seems that there internal problems are still unresolved when the arrive for the challenge...the Samburu are all hugs and high fives while the Boran show little team spirit and unity. Whether this translates into a win for Samburu is still unclear...  Krautboy
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-08-01, 04:35 PM (EST)
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16. "Boran before and after Challenge..." |
LAST EDITED ON 10-08-01 AT 04:39 PM (EST)The following vidcaps show the Boran tribe on Day 2; the Day of the Challenge. They are seen in their camp, in the shade of the Acacia tree, with the shelter in the background. All eight members appear to be present, with Clarence and Kim J. just out of the frame to the right. All the Boran members are wearing the same clothes in the pre-challenge pics, the arriving at the challenge pics, and the post-challenge pics.
PRE-CHALLENGE
Lex (sitting on the "stump") making his “trust” speech… "We're pissed off, and we now need to deal with a situation where we were starting to build trust, the trust has been broken, and it needs to be built from square one." Kelly in background with hand over her face, tribal color "tube top" not in place yet. Diane next to Tom.
Kim J. listening to Lex.
Carl listening to Lex (with war paint.).
AT THE CHALLENGE 
Boran arriving at the challenge. Lex trying to instill enthusiasm in the tribe.
Boran before the IC/Reward challenge(notice clothes, same as in pre-challenge and post-challenge pics)
POST-CHALLENGE 
Ethan airing out his shoes after wearing them in the challenge. Now sitting on the "stump".
Kelly with Boran colors in place, now between Diane and Tom. Ethans shoes in background.
CONCLUSIONS: Pre-Challenge: Lex on "stump"
Diane next to Tom
Kelly in background without Boran "colors"
Clarence wearing his challenge "war paint". Challenge: Boran members wearing same clothes as pre and post challenge. Post-Challenge: Ethan on "stump" airing out his shoes.
Kelly between Diane and Tom
Kelly wearing her "tube top" Boran yellow. If you look at the Boran tribe before or after the challenge, their expressions are very similar. They are not happy, energized or enthusiastic. They are not seen building a fire, with newly acquired matches, they are not seen on a "water fetch". They are tired, thirsty and discouraged, both before AND after the challenge. It looks like the Boran are going to Tribal Council! Krautboy
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Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-08-01, 08:09 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Boran before and after Challenge..." |
>If you look at the Boran
>tribe before or after the
>challenge, their expressions are very
>similar. They are not happy,
>energized or enthusiastic. They are
>not seen building a fire,
>with newly acquired matches, they
>are not seen on a
>"water fetch". They are tired,
>thirsty and discouraged, both before
>AND after the challenge.
>
>It looks like the Boran are
>going to Tribal Council! I'm with Krautboy on this. Those post challenges pictures bear the look of losers. Even if they're exhausted, the faces would show more joy if they'd won. About the whole betrayal of trust issue: This is critical to who is evicted. It will be someone who is not bonding well with the others and the trust issue will cause an even greater schism. My guess from the pics are that Clarence, Kelly and Kim J. are having the biggest bonding issues in Boran. Lastly about what causes the breach of trust. On a different thread I posted it might be a lapsed night watch for predators causing the breach. The not boiling water for fifteen minutes seems too simple to be a real issue. Who can't boil water? But Samiam's post got me to thinking about water. MB will definitely give them enough water for three days (like S2-remember Colby complaining about the awkwardness of dragging the containers), not matches for fire. That means water, along with food, will have to be carefully rationed to last until fire is available for boiling more. I'm thinking we have a food pilfering or water wasting incident here. All of the previous Survivor shows had either river water or ocean water for bathing, cooling down, fishing, etc. This one the contestants will be much dirtier if the river can be entered due to crocs. Would someone take a sponge bath or wash their clothes without okaying it first?
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-09-01, 01:54 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Boran before and after Challenge..." |
I've been of the belief that they get a starter 3 day supply of water for a while now... believing that, the idea that someone violates the "trust" by abusing the water rations makes much more sense to me than someone sleeping during sentry duty.Btw, do we know FOR SURE that sentry duty is required? ...and if it is, it poses the question of how many sentry posts and for how long -- and how was the sleeper discovered and revealed. If sentry duty is required, it might become a factor once the challengs change from tribal to individual -- anyone up half the night would be at that much more of a disadvantage. Also, I've been out of the lop for a few days -- how do we know the post-challenge images are post-challenge? Lastly, might the "trust" issue have something to do with the challenge itself -- maybe someone not keeping a hand on the cart at all times or such (previous Ep1 challenges have had similar requirements) -SB 
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-09-01, 10:15 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Hand on the cart..." |
After getting a good nights sleep, I found my self thinking the same thing as you've suggested.I don't think the trust issue has to do with abuse the water rations, or falling asleep on guard duty. I think it has to do with failure to follow the rules on the "burning carriage challenge". MB/JP may very well be sensitive to the question of manipulating the game considering Stacey's lawsuite, and Colby's run on the immunity challenge (such as his plates being broken). As a result I suspect JP will be strict in following any challenge rule. I think the pics above are post challenge because Clarence still has his war paint on. The only time I remember Skupin having war paint on was for challenges and maybe for hunts. Since Clarence appears to be the ONLY ONR wearing paint, I think this clearly suggest post challenge, as opposed to the team just playing with the paints. Since this looks to be post challenge, and I'm speculating JP will tough with following the rules, I agree the "trust" is most likely broken by someone not following the rules and costing the team a win. Looking at the pic of Lex giving his speech, 4 players appear to be disinterested in listening to what Lex is saying, so I doubt their heads are on the chopping. The people who look as if they may be listening to Lex are: Clarence
Kim
Kelly I don't think Clarence is going anywhere yet because of the story that he was in the Kenya hospital. Maybe this is true, maybe it's a red herring, but either way I think this story means he's not going anywhere in episode I. They should still be drinking from water they carried in (especially if they don't have fire yet) so it's too early for him to be hospitalized for a parasite. Too he has to hang around awhile so the story, if a red herring isn't quickly disproved. Mamma Kim almost certainly lasts to the merger, when the nick names are used to distinguish the two Kims. Kelly is my weakest arguement of all I think. Howerver, while it may not be fair, pretty young women get cut a lot of slack, and I think early in the game she could probably survive a "little slip" where she accidently let go of the carriage and it cost the team in the challenge. So, I think Lex fails to follow the rules and loses the immunity challenge for his team. He then spends the next 36hrs or so trying to save his own neck with variations on the "trust" speach earing himself alot of screen time. By the time they go to TC it will be apparent to all of us that Lex is a gonner. So I think there is going to be a big old X on Lex's picture after Thursday's episode.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-09-01, 10:28 AM (EST)
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25. "Water, water everywhere,but not a drop to drink..." |
Agreed.It makes sense that the Boran tribe may have "trusted" one another to use their ration of water wisely, but when their clean water supply disappeared more quickly than expected, they may have started pointing fingers at each other; "the trust had been broken". On top of that, their inability to make fire to purify water, compounded the problem.The following vidcaps are all the pics I could find of water gathering. They are all pictures of Samburu, no pictures of Boran! Water is definately the most important issue to the Boran tribe. This is also consistewnt with a Samburu victory at the challenge, otherwise the Boran would also be seen collecting water, boiling water and drinking water...but we only see them laying around, dehydrated, under a tree. 
Silas and Brandon on a “water fetch”.
http://www.survivorfever.net/silas_carl_frank.jp
Silas, Frank and Carl filtering water. 
Lindsey collecting water.
Samburu on a “water fetch”.
Frank and Carl Filtering water.
Krautboy
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