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"Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II"
SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-22-01, 08:13 AM (EST)
 
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"Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
On another thread in another section, there has appeared some tabloid information concerning the Colbster and some of the Survivor women. This information has me thinking post-mortem about Amber's situation. Here's a girl who possibly had the game handed to her on a silver platter, and let it all go.Let me try these ideas on y'all:
1) Amber had a chance to ally with Rodger/Lis to possibly go into the Final 3 and who knows from there. But apparently this didn't happen. We've concluded that Amber is as dumb as a rock, and while THAT may be true, there may be more to it. 2) Information has developed that "sweet" Amber from Beaver, PA has posed for a skin magazine and the tabloids reported that she and Colby were making out in a nightclub bathroom (other reports say it was Colby and Alicia). Amber was also seen doing some bump-and-grind dancing at this club. Amber may have been under the radar in Survivor, but she's nowhere near that now, possibly even milking the fame. She's talked openly about possibly posing for Playboy, also. 3) Lis has been called wholesome and good by others, including Rodger (the definition of Mr. Wholesome) and Colby (apparently wanted Lis like crazy but knew she was spoken for). Lis went home to her boyfriend and got engaged and seems to be anticipating a happy life ahead. Meanwhile, nobody is saying anything about Amber being a sweet or wholesome person. She was so far under the radar that we were wondering if her absence during the airing of the show was a spoiler clue. Jerri ventured that Amber was overwhelmed by the publicity, but if that is the case Amber has grown out of that quickly. My conclusion: During the game, Lis and Rodger perhaps saw that Amber does not have high morals. Seeing this, they avoided an alliance with her, despite the fact that such an alliance might possibly win the game for one of them. They join the others in voting Amber out. We know that Lis and Rodger DID try to ally with Colby, and Rodger took an opportunity to try to sway Keith to their side, and Rodger even voted for Colby. But they apparently didn't approach Amber. Maybe it's legit and maybe Amber isn't such a good girl after all.... Thoughtful comments desired and appreciated. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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05-22-01, 04:08 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
She lost because they were all being mean  I really have no evidence to back that up, but still... ================ Survivorerist
N.L.F.C.
G.A.W.D.
N.T.B.U.G.F. "It's day seven and we just caught our first fish. It did take us a week but, hey, it's better than two weeks."
-The Early Days of the Late Amber Brkich
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Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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05-22-01, 05:29 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-22-01 AT 07:38 PM (EST)It's possible that they thought Amber had low morals and shied away from her. If the earlier rumour about two female contestants getting caught smoking dope is true, it had to be Amber and Jerri (Kimmi would smoke too but had no one to join her). If true, Lis and Rodger would have no doubt heard about this post merger. I think Amber probably has a college age party girl attitude that they picked up on. However, I suspect the main reason was the whole tainted-by association-with-Jerri thing. Nick said they did not feel comfortable enough with Amber or like her well enough to approach her while they (Kucha) were in the game. They apparently got to like her better at the ranch. Edited to add: Survivorist swears the wheels were turning in Amber's head while she played the game. Maybe, but it never looked like the squirrel was running very fast. She was probably just too young and scared to stick her neck out by approaching the Kuchas. P.S. Please play the game on off-topic. I know you and Shakes have had differences but I'd still like to see you there.
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BluSavana 694 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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05-22-01, 07:55 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
SurvivinDawg has no desire to waste time on the *game*. I know, you all may say what the hell does it have to do with me, but since he told me he is a complete non-participant, just thought I would let it be known. Good luck playing you guys =) BluHaHa
God bless the Army!
Stop eye-balling me Recruit Lemon! 
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VampKira 4433 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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05-23-01, 00:39 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
*sigh*
What a wonderful community we have here.. I was hoping we could lure him in a bit.. seeing as he is quite intelligent and funny.. but alas.. I suppose that some see this as other than it is.. Isn't that just like life???GO BORNEOBORES!!!!!!!!!!
 w.l.s.f.c.
Du ar min hjälte, Supermänniska 
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-23-01, 07:27 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
Y'all might be (and probably are) right that the Jerri association was a big reason they didn't try to ally with Amber.But the thing that sticks in my mind is this: Lis and Rodger were DOOMED (and they knew it) if they couldn't break up the C/K/T alliance. They apparently tried and failed with Colby. Rodger tried and failed with Keith (after his blowup with Colby over the rice). It's so obvious to y'all and me that Amber was ripe for a defection that I cannot believe THEY didn't see it. But apparently they didn't TRY to make the connection with Amber. Lis supposedly said in an exit interview somewhere that they didn't trust her. Why wouldn't they? What's the worst that could happen? They wouldn't be voted off any sooner! So I concluded the reason must lie elsewhere. Remember that most of these contestants valued the integrity of the others over gameplaying considerations. Several would rather themselves lose and see a "good" person get the money than have someone they didn't think much of possibly win. That's a big reason why Lis and Rodger lasted so long, it's why Colby waxed Keith instead of Tina, it's why Jerri was ousted despite the danger to the Ogie alliance... and it's why AMBER was voted out when she was. Rodger and Lis made up their minds that they'd rather see her go (and their last chance with her) than wax "better" people (in their opinions) like Colby and Tina. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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GG 142 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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05-23-01, 09:09 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-23-01 AT 09:11 PM (EST)You could say that Amber never really showed much initative and, accordingly, decided that if Rodger and Liz had really wanted to recruit her into an alliance, it was incumbent (by her way of thinking) on them to make the approach in the first instance. Equally, there were grounds for confusion, perhaps even a dose of paranoia over ascertaining who was more trustworthy. Her Ogakor tribemates who chose not to inform her of Jerri's boot or Rodger/Liz who, as members of Kucha, would use her merely as a means to an end - seek to redress the balance of power. Whatever, I still find it hard to believe that Amber didn't recognize her own vulnerability. If I recall correctly, she did say in the episode she was voted off that she was playing to win, or words to that effect. But instead of being proactive she adopted a laissez-faire approach and paid the price. Colby's influence almost certainly factors in here somewhere. As for Rodger and Liz, it is unclear to me why they would have viewed Amber as not being a particularly moral person. If you are inferring that she became a victim by association with Jerri, well, maybe. However, I would venture to say that Amber was the most 'neutral' person in the game and that her demeanor, or lack thereof, is unlikely to have formed a bad impression in Rodger and Liz's minds. If anything, it was her rather introspective nature that cost her leverage. Which is silly considering that as the obvious outsider of Ogakor, persuading Amber to switch should have overrided the 'wanting the good guys to win' mentality. That mantra doesn't wash especially if, as Rodger and Liz contended on several occasions, they did not want to be picked off one by one. Why didn't it happen? Either because those two were just as dumb as Amber in the final analysis. Or because Tina proved far too convincing.
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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05-24-01, 04:05 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
Uh, Amber was the youngest. Survivor winners are 40+. Makes sense even without the cheating.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-25-01, 02:53 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
Minstrel, I agree. I was thinking, reading all these posts, that there's nothing like experience if you want to strategize with and about people. As Tina said, Amber was a sweet girl but hadn't proven herself. She doesn't have the knowledge about what makes people tick that allowed Tina to win this thing.About her image--one of the early Ogawhore bootees (Kel?) said Amber was a regular Brittany Spears in the singalongs. I never saw Lis acting sexy; she just was, to paraphrase, but the two young girls were pretty different. Lis wouldn't have been lying next to Jerri carrying on about sex and food. Not her style. About Amber being friends with everyone and not as much with Jerri as the editing showed--I think that's what she wanted to be true once Jerri was booted, but I think she was definitely using Jerri as her primary ally. Despite Jerri's obnoxiousness, she had personal power and Amber wanted to ride along. There was an interview with Keith where he critiqued Amber's strategy of allying too closely to Jerri and he said she was stuck with that--this was the episode she was booted. As for why they didn't ally, L/R/A--clearly, they should have. I got the impression from Lis' interviews that the Ogawhore 3 just radiated this strength and power in their relationship that no one felt able to crack. Only Jerri really didn't see it.
I think Lis and Amber were just psyched out by that and were trying not to make waves so they could squeak by to be No. 4 and then maybe win IC. (In their dreams.) Rodger said he wasn't that good at playing the strategist; he had the knowledge, but not the motivation. He went there for the survival aspect. So, I think it was a combination of all the things mentioned above that left Amber out--mostly, to paraphrase Tina, the flying-under-the-radar strategy will only get you so far, because when the ranks get thin, no-one's U-T-R. At that point, you have to have made strong alliances, built a history of trust, or else just win all the IC's, or you're gone. I also get the feeling that the hunger and strange environment of the deprivation and this paranoia inducing game work together to keep people from making major switches of strategy.
I would call this the lethargy/inertia theory, where it's easiest to stick with the bonds made in the early days, before everyone got weak and when there were "safe" loyalties, i.e. the team prior to merge. We have yet to see anyone really break loose from this pattern. There's also a certain acceptance that we've seen post-merge that your minority or majority postion's semi-set, because those in the majority find it easier to stay as they've been than to think ahead. Therefore, it was easier for Amber to be No.4 Ogawhore than to join the 2 she thought were getting picked off. One week at a time. Likewise, Lis faced what she perceived as an unbreakable majority, and she went to Tina, not Amber, looking for a crack and probably clearly sensing that Tina had it all in her hands, and wasn't really that huge a Keith fan. Lis was trying to get to Tina, and approaching Amber would have been the kiss of death. Thank you, S. Dawg, for starting a thread that made me think.
And I agree we could use your voice in that other game we're not actually playing, because you have a strong voice and you can take on Shakes. Apologies for long and rambling. Too tired to edit it!
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GG 142 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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05-25-01, 02:53 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
Sorry OFG, I cannot validate your thinking here.(1). It is a contradictory arguement to cite Amber's age and lack of experience when Liz managed to reach the last four - she was only a year older. You may point to the fact that she was protected by Rodger to a certain extent, but his influence does not outweigh Liz making the last four due to her likeabilty. Exuberance of youth can be a potent weapon too. (2). As you say yourself, Amber did ally herself with Jerri. This is strategy, perceived or otherwise. Whether it was prudent or flawed is an entirely different matter altogether. (3). Remember that Amber did appreciate the pitfalls of staying with Tina, Keith and Colby - lack of trust and possible victim by association with Jerri. Of course she was also rightly concerned about Kucha using her as a means to wipe out Ogkaor's advantage and, with that objective achieved, ditch her accordingly. So her thinking process was right even if the choice she made was ultimately the wrong one. Had Amber actually given it more consideration, she would have realized that the K/C/T alliance made her a goner the minute she was left out of the decision making process. Yes, the furthest she could have gone with Kucha was probably a final four but it would also have been a guaranteed final four. With Ogakor, this was never a certainty. As so it proved. (4). The power of the Okagor 3 is precisely why Kucha and Amber should have aligned. Amber had to know it - as a direct result of what happened with Jerri - and Liz, Rodger and Nick as well. They did voice their fears repeatedly that the Ogies would pick them off one at at time. Liz even highlighted the potential folly of ousting Jerri, meaning the possibility now existed for Amber to switch sides and put Kucha in control. So the 'unbreakable majority', as you put it, of K/C/T, was, ipso facto, anything but. All it would have taken was an approach from either Kucha or Amber to change the whole course of the game. Both parties did nothing. Their demise was self-inflicted. (5). Liz didn't care much for Keith. Amber wasn't a great fan of Tina, at least if you use her final-two jury vote for Colby as retrospective evidence that is. Which brings us back to (4) above. +GG
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-25-01, 06:24 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
Wow, some GREAT discussions about this, not to mention some of the pics posted! There probably is room for truth on both sides of the discussions presented. So rather than try to respond to any of y'all directly, please allow me to state my own thoughts here in this post. 1) Association with Jerri. Certainly this could've been a factor. Perhaps Rodger and Lis overheard Amber and Jerri having a chocolate moment. Perhaps Amber had a Kimmi-style discussion of her sexuality. Perhaps Amber discussed with Jerri or others her thoughts of being in Playboy, etc. Also, remember that the contestants said (in the aftershow) that they had philosophical discussions that didn't make it onto the show. They might have gotten Amber's moral values out of these conversations. 2) Not allying with Lis/Rodger. Okay, we've discussed at length that Amber is not the brightest bulb in the Christmas tree decorations. But from some of the comments I've heard (I think from Lis), they REJECTED an Amber alliance, which leads me to think Amber might have approached one of them about it. And of course, the whole thesis of my original message is why THEY didn't approach HER about it, although it would make strategic sense to do so. On the Amber side, all Amber needed to do was make the Final Three and have a shot at that Final IC. If she wins, she's in the Final 2 with a shot (albeit a slim one). That's a far cry better than where she ended up. Furthermore to this point, Amber looked like a lost puppy after Jerri was waxed. You better believe she realized where it could end up. She had NO reason to stay loyal to the Ogakors (although her correct strategy would be to pay them lip service and get Nick out of there and THEN turn to L/R). 3. Okay, here's where I hit you with something new: I'm sure we can agree that Colby and Tina worked on Amber to keep her broken to the Ogakor fist (falcon terminology there), and they succeeded marvelously. I suggest to you, however, that Tina's gameplaying might have reached the zenith here by keeping Rodger and Lis broken to her fist! I can just see in my mind's eye Tina talking to Rodger, and Lis too, about Amber's loose morals, perhaps embellishing it or even lying about it. I can see Tina telling them about previous Amber conversations, perhaps, or just saying that Amber was unworthy of the money. And you better believe that Rodger would be swayed by that, and Lis (but to a lesser extent). 4. But let's not kid ourselves about the "power of the Ogie alliance"... Rodger was looking for (almost) every way to break it, so was Lis. But the one they they apparently DIDN'T do was seek out Amber... they'd rather a "good guy" like Tina or Colby win than Amber to have a shot. And yes, we DO need to find more things to have good, thought-provoking conversations about!  *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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BluSavana 694 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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05-25-01, 07:51 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Amber Theory - Why she lost Survivor II" |
*heart fluttering* Oh Dawg, sweet Dawg, I love it when you go off on some insightful, rambling rant. It's even better when it's whispered. *yeah it's offtopic, but what's left to spoil?* BluHaHaGod bless the Army! Stop eye-balling me Recruit Lemon!
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