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RockyMountainOyster 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-05-01, 12:53 PM (EST) "What if Michael didn't have an accident?" A newbie starting a thread? OMG, OMG. I can already feel the flames. Seriously, I've been lurking all season and have finally decided to become an active contributor. This is a great spoiler board and I've been reading it avidly. I can't help but wonder, though, on what the outcome would have been if Michael hadn't been injured. Colby mentioned that he thought Nick might have gotten to the final two, along with Michael (albeit, he said it when he was trying to get Nick's vote, maybe). But I don't think so. Since it's leisure time until S3, I'd like to see how you all would speculate about a final four given the no-accident scenario, or if you're that ambitious, how the voting might have gone in consecutive weeks up to and including the final. My final four picks: Jeff, Alicia, Roger and Liz. I just don't see Nick (too lazy and nonscheming) and Michael (too big an IC threat) making it.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: What if Michael didn't have an ... George Tirebiter 05-05-01 1    RE: What if Michael didn't have an ... dabo 05-05-01 2  RE: What if Michael didn't have an ... Drive My Car 05-05-01 3    RE: What if Michael didn't have an ... RockyMountainOyster 05-06-01 4  What IF Michael didn't have an acci... SurvivinDawg 05-06-01 5    RE: What IF Michael didn't have an ... dabo 05-06-01 6        RE: What IF Michael didn't have an ... Survivorerist 05-06-01 7            Surv... dangerkitty 05-06-01 8            RE: What IF Michael didn't have an ... ItzLisa 05-06-01 10                RE: What IF Michael didn't have an ... desert_rhino 05-07-01 12                    Selection Process Update sleeeve 05-07-01 16                        RE: Selection Process Update desert_rhino 05-08-01 19    RE: What IF Michael didn't have an ... deepkangadoo 05-07-01 14        RE: What IF Michael didn't have an ... SurvivinDawg 05-08-01 17            RE: What IF Michael didn't have an ... deepkangadoo 05-08-01 20  RE: What if Michael didn't have an ... janisella 05-06-01 9  RE: What if Michael didn't have an ... Mumbo Jumbo 05-07-01 11    RE: What if Michael didn't have an ... managerr 05-07-01 13        Two lines AyatollahKhomeini 05-07-01 15            RE: Two lines SurvivinDawg 05-08-01 18                RE: Two lines Lurking 05-09-01 24                    RE: Two lines SurvivinDawg 05-10-01 25                        My personal opinion sleeeve 05-10-01 26                            Agree 100% AyatollahKhomeini 05-10-01 27                                RE: Agree 100% SurvivinDawg 05-11-01 28  RE: What if Michael didn't have an ... esquire 05-08-01 21    RE: What if Michael didn't have an ... RockyMountainOyster 05-08-01 22        Thank you, Oyster AyatollahKhomeini 05-08-01 23

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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-05-01, 03:12 PM (EST) 1. "RE: What if Michael didn't have an accident?" In my opinion, Psycho-Mike was already on borrowed time. He was an obvious nutcase, and no one else cared for him; did we not hear plans to boot him all along? (and say what he will now, the pig-killing and blood-smearing REALLY weirded out the others!) The whole injury thing was just one of those things that makes people feel guilty enough to feign deep feelings (knowing he's out of their hair helps), and above all, served to coalesce the group into that much more of a team. ("Yes, we're on a game show, but one idiotic maneuver could wind up like him!" and "We're suddenly down one man--we need to overcome the disadvantage!") Nick wouldn't have made it, because he was just too damned useless. Easily tossed into the discard pile. I think Jeff wouldn't have gone too close to the end, because his whining and condescention would've made him expendible. I think if they had been able to maintain control over the other tribe, Alicia may have been in the final two because she had the physical wherewithal to win challenges, and Liz--because Rodger still would've fallen on his sword for her. Then again, when it comes to spoiling, I usually leave it to people who are more able to think with their heads. . . (figured I could get away with this because everyone else is still lolling around with their post-Survivor hangovers!) GT   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-05-01, 03:38 PM (EST) 2. "RE: What if Michael didn't have an accident?" I agree, Mike was a great player but if he hadn't had his accident and Kucha had majority at or after the merge, he just would have been Rodger and Elisabeth's Keith and made the final three or maybe only the final four at best.   Top

Drive My Car 20045 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-05-01, 04:00 PM (EST) 3. "RE: What if Michael didn't have an accident?" Hey Rocky! I have thought this myself. I actually am kinda glad things worked out as they did, not that Mike was hurt, but I think that the show was more interesting because he was eliminated early. Jeff Varner said on his Early Show interview that if Mike hadn't been hurt and taken out of the game that " you'd be talking to Colby right now" I do think that Kucha would have picked off Oga one by one til they had only each other to vote against.They had a definate plan for after the merge. I think Alicia and Jeff would have held their pact with each other til the end. Am really interested to hear what others have to say about this. Oh and Rocky, Surivor Blows has lots to offer, there may not be spoiling going on, but there are clever people doing their thing on the Basher Board, the Fanatics still have lots to say (our Fav survivors will be getting lots of Media attention ) and closest to my heart , the craziness that happens on the Off Topic where there are less rules and anything can happen. Welcome to SBlows, glad you decided to share your thoughts with us, hope you stay and contribute more, there is lots of reality TV out there to play with. EBug unofficial greeter of Survivor Blows founding member of the w.l.s.f.c. (oh my goodness I think this is my first official greeting on the spoiler board)   Top

RockyMountainOyster 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-06-01, 09:44 AM (EST) 4. "RE: What if Michael didn't have an accident?" Drive, thanks for the nice welcome. I, too, agree that Ogakor would have been picked off one by one, and that the Jeff/Alicia and Roger/Liz alliances would have held till the end.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-06-01, 11:22 AM (EST) 5. "What IF Michael didn't have an accident?" You guys and the Kucha are assuming an awful lot by assuming that Kucha would win this thing if Michael hadn't had his accident! Let me throw these items at you and see how well you chew them up: 1) Exactly where was that written guarantee that Kucha would win the Immunity challenge? 2) It was IMPERATIVE to MB that there be a tie going into the merge. A 6-4 Kucha advantage would've been at least 4 weeks of very boring television as one Ogie after another is picked off one-by-one. The only "exciting" moment would have been when the nation cheered Jerri's booting. It also would've made for some very boring exit interviews on the Early Show, etc. Can you imagine Colby and Tina, not to mention Amber and Keith, saying "Well, we were down 6-4, we had no chance, we were abandoned puppydogs." I believe, and stated on this board previously, that I thought Ogakor was given the answer to the maze (and making Kucha run 7 people through it to Ogakor's 5 was hardly fair, as Kimmi correctly noted). I also think MB would've fixed the Immunity Challenge and Kucha would've had to vote someone off. 3) If Kucha had not won IC and they still would go in 5-5, who would the bootee be? The ONLY person who would have changed the outcome is if Kucha voted JEFF off. Then Ogakor's trump card in the 5-5 split would be for nothing. I don't think anyone else on Kucha would've had a vote (although Jeff would've given someone one). Who knows what would've happened then? But if Jeff was NOT waxed, then I submit that the same scenario would've happened that DID happen: Jeff gone, Ogakor gains 5-4 ascendancy. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-06-01, 03:19 PM (EST) 6. "RE: What IF Michael didn't have an accident?" >1) Exactly where was that written >guarantee that Kucha would win >the Immunity challenge? > >2) It was IMPERATIVE to MB >that there be a tie >going into the merge. > >I believe, and stated on this >board previously, that I thought >Ogakor was given the answer >to the maze (and making >Kucha run 7 people through >it to Ogakor's 5 was >hardly fair, as Kimmi correctly >noted). I also think >MB would've fixed the Immunity >Challenge and Kucha would've had >to vote someone off. > I don't think we're assuming anything, actually, just speculating on an unprovable issue. I do agree that the last team immunity challenge would probably have been another one which favored the team with the fewer members, but I don't agree that it is imperative to MB to have the teams merge 5-5, an unbalance merge may eventually happen in the game and that creates a completely different set of political situations which could play out in interesting unforeseeable ways. Anyway, had Kucha been forced to eliminate another one of their own before the merge, the Mike-Rodger-Elisabeth alliance could have take Jeff out on the deadlock rule, then where would Ogakor's intelligence advantage gotten them, nowhere.   Top

Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 05-06-01, 07:43 PM (EST) 7. "RE: What IF Michael didn't have an accident?" >>>Anyway, had Kucha been forced to eliminate another one of their own before the merge, the Mike-Rodger-Elisabeth alliance could have take Jeff out on the deadlock rule, then where would Ogakor's intelligence advantage gotten them, nowhere.<<< Do you know what I think the funniest thing would be and also the toughest break for Ogakor? If, instead of Michael, Jeff fell into the fire. Good luck winning the deadlock tie now! ================ Survivorerist N.L.F.C. G.A.W.D. N.T.B.U.G.F. "It's day seven and we just caught our first fish. It did take us a week but, hey, it's better than two weeks." -The Early Days of the Late Amber Brkich   Top

dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 05-06-01, 08:16 PM (EST) 8. "Surv..." Have I told you lately how much I adore you, little brother?? dangerkitty "Nevermind" - Kurt Cobain and Emily Litella   Top

ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-06-01, 10:30 PM (EST) 10. "RE: What IF Michael didn't have an accident?" >Do you know what I think the funniest thing would be and also the toughest break for Ogakor? If, instead of Michael, Jeff fell into the fire. ***Oh, holy geeze, can you even imagine? The whining would have never stopped! It would have reverberated through the entire friggin' Outback! Welcome to the boards, Rocky! Now that we're in limbo till the show starts again, head on over onto the Off Topic forum - I think that's probably where most of us will hang out till we have some real spoilers, once we start hearing hints about S3! ************************************** W.L.S.F.C. - NY chapter Bubbles: "Er, um, excuse me? Mr. Monster? I was wondering if you would, er, be so kind as to stop destroying Townsville? We like our town very, very much and I would appreciate it if you would just leave. Pretty please with sugerlumps on top?"   Top

desert_rhino 10087 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-01, 09:37 AM (EST) 12. "RE: What IF Michael didn't have an accident?" start hearing hints about S3! Speaking of which... Has ANYONE heard ANYTHING about the S3 selection process? It's as though the whole thing just vanished. We should have heard SOMETHING, no? It reminds me of "The Revenge of the Jedi," where Lando Calrissian says (approx.) "What do you mean, no reading? We should be able to get SOME reading, whether the shield's up or down... unless... they're jamming us! Pull up! Pull up! The shield is still operational!" {sigh} -- JV Look out for the Camo-Rhino!   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-07-01, 10:45 PM (EST) 16. "Selection Process Update" >Speaking of which... Has ANYONE >heard ANYTHING about the S3 >selection process? It's as >though the whole thing just >vanished. We should have >heard SOMETHING, no? I have gotten e-mails from numerous people in response to my request that people keep me informed. All of them (except one) have said that they haven't heard anything yet, but I will be the first to know when they do... The sole e-mail that is different says (I am not making this up) that the entire cast of S3 has already been chosen, and that they are already in Africa filming the show. The person claims that they are in the cast, and that they just won the Internet Chat RC, and they are using their internet time to e-mail me and tell me who is in the cast. The e-mail was accompanied by 16 names and cities. I will admit that I was born on a Tuesday, but not last Tuesday...   Top

desert_rhino 10087 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-08-01, 09:53 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Selection Process Update" Sleeeve? The sole e-mail that is different says (I am not making this up) that the entire cast of S3 has already been chosen, and that they are already in Africa filming the show. The person claims that they are in the cast, and that they just won the Internet Chat RC, and they are using their internet time to e-mail me and tell me who is in the cast. Let me get this straight... You're NOT making that up? Damn! I am sooooo bummed out. I had such high hopes... {BANG!} {flthud} {drip} {drip} -- JV Icarus steps out for the rest of eternity.   Top

deepkangadoo 7 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-07-01, 09:03 PM (EST) 14. "RE: What IF Michael didn't have an accident?" Rodger was quite clear that he and Mike had an alliance. But Jeff said, in his CBS chat: "Just before Mike's accident, we were pulling Mike into the alliance." (Meaning the Jeff-Alicia-Nick alliance.) This seems to be quite an overlooked bit of information. I think Mike was pullin' a Colby and straddling the fence. A Kucha final 5 or 6 wouldn't have been boring, as is generally assumed; we would have had "evil" J-A-N on one side, "good" R-E on the other, and "psycho" Mike playing both sides! Of course, this is ASSUMING they would have gone into the merger 6-4. I tend to agree with SD that MB would've fixed the IC to make it a 5-5 merge.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-08-01, 06:41 AM (EST) 17. "RE: What IF Michael didn't have an accident?" >This seems to be quite an >overlooked bit of information. I >think Mike was pullin' a >Colby and straddling the fence. I don't think it was overlooked, and I agree with your assessment. I also think Mike was near-psycho out there and wasn't thinking clearly in terms of alliances.... how DOES one fall into a fire like that?!?!?!?!?!?! >A Kucha final 5 or 6 wouldn't have been boring, as is generally assumed; This is why I hit the REPLY button. What would have been boring is those 4 or 5 weeks where the outcome was pretty darn certain that an Ogie would be waxed. Colby wouldn't have won every IC with Alicia, Mike, Jeff, and Nick there, and he'd be gone the second he was vulnerable. The rest of the Ogies would just wither away. What fun or suspense is in that? You could just not watch Survivor for four episodes and come back when the Oga-waxing was completed, and you wouldn't have missed a thing. That would have been unacceptable to MB or CBS, hence my comments earlier. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

deepkangadoo 7 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-08-01, 10:10 AM (EST) 20. "RE: What IF Michael didn't have an accident?" Yes, it probably would have been boring and unacceptable... I am just trying to convince (delude?) myself into thinking that there would have been fun and suspense in watching the monsters behind the happy Kucha masks come out and devour each other. I find myself so underwhelmed at the way the show played out that it's easy to make myself think that any other scenario would have been preferable. Either way, we end up with a "Pa-Gong" show. (Kudos to whoever coined that term.) Even with a 5-5 merge, one tribe will get the advantage at the first TC and pick the other off from there. I really like the idea of three tribes that other posters have bounced around.   Top

janisella 698 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 05-06-01, 09:29 PM (EST) 9. "RE: What if Michael didn't have an accident?" I think the final 4 would have been Jeff, Alicia, Nick (those 3 were aligned early on) and either Elizabeth or Rodger. Mike would have been picked off first because he was a threat and too strange to keep around. Jeff and Alicia had been talking early on about getting rid of Rodg and Bessy because they were too likable. My guess is they would have kept Rodg, or maybe voted off both Bessy and Rodg and pulled the least liked Ogie along. J.   Top

Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-07-01, 01:23 AM (EST) 11. "RE: What if Michael didn't have an accident?" Rodger and Mike had an alliance in addition to the one Rodger had with Lis. Although Ogakor would have naturally gone after Michael (strength) and run up his vote totals, I think Lis would have Tina'ed Ogakor and directed their votes away from Michael, if possible, to J/A. Then, once the Ogas were gone, L/R/M could have picked off Jeff, Alicia, and Nick using the previous votes to win at tiebreak. final four: Tina, Michael, Elizabeth and Rodger with that as the boot order and Rodger winning.   Top

managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 05-07-01, 11:18 AM (EST) 13. "RE: What if Michael didn't have an accident?" We *know* from interviews with Alicia that she and Jeff and brought Nick into their alliance. Rodger's Early Show interviews indicated that he and Michael had recently formed an alliance and he was sure that Elisabeth would have gone along. So assume Kucha wins the last immunity: You have 2 dueling alliances: Alicia-Jeff-Nick and Elisabeth-Rodger-Michael. It all depends who pissed off Ogakor more at this point. You'd have to think that the Liz-Rodg-Mike alliance would get along more with Tina-Keith-Colby-Amber (assume they booted Jerri). Thus, Alicia-Nick-Jeff getting more votes going into a Final 6 Kucha, 3-3 tie break. The 7th Ogakor could become a pivotal player, and be used to oust the last 3 contestants. Let's assume Colby continues to win immunity. Strategically, he's going to side with the 3 weaker 3 and oust A-J-N. He continues to win immunity leaving Mike, Rodger, Elisabeth and Colby as the Final 4. You can actually sub any one you want for the Final 4, but I think M-R-E would be a lock. If Kucha lost the last immunity, the Kucha TC would have been damn interesting. You'd have the two alliances going at it at the beginning--I do think it would result in Jeff's ouster. A-N-J targets Mike; R-M-E targets J. Jeff is gone, but Mike has 3 votes. Going into ther merger, my guess is that Ogakor wouldn't vote Mike since as far as they know he is their "leader". Ogakor blindly vote for Rodger or Alicia; Kucha votes Colby. There is some challenge--depending on who wins it, that's who would gain the advantage.   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-07-01, 09:25 PM (EST) 15. "Two lines" OK, first I agree with Dawg that it isn't a foregone conclusion that Kucha would've won the last IC, which was the obstacle course. I'll bet Burn-it would have made Rodger compete and let someone compete twice for Ogakor (Colby, for sure). Let's look at those line-ups: Ogakor: Colby, Amber, Jerri, Tina, Keith, Colby Kucha: Nick, Lis, Rodger, Jeff V., Alicia, Michael This is a toss-up. But, for the sake of argument, say that Kucha wins. Ogakor boots Jerri. In E7 and E8, Keith and Colby get booted by Kucha (yes, I know Keith won E7 immunity, but Colby didn't try). Tina sells Rodger/Lis/Michael on the idea of using her to boot the Jeff/Alicia/Nick coalition. Lis keeps Amber along (no scary Jerri to ruin the first impression). So Alicia, Nick, and Jeff leave next, followed by Amber and then Tina, leaving a final three of Michael/Rodger/Lis. Lis wins Fallen Comrades and picks Rodger for the finals, and Rodger then falls on his sword in the last two. Lis wins the million. Now, for the sake of argument, say that Ogakor wins. Rodger/Lis/Michael vote Jeff. Jeff/Alicia/Nick vote Rodger (yes, I think they would vote for Rodger instead of Michael, thinking that they might pick up Michael's vote). Jeff goes on the tiebreak. NOW it gets interesting. Who does Ogakor target? Michael or Rodger? Who does Kucha target? Colby or Keith? Who wins immunity? I see Colby following the same strategy: trying to draw votes to himself. This probably works even better with Jeff V. gone. Thus, he jumps off the pole early. I see Rodger following Varner's strategy and jumping off early too (with the difference being that Ogakor may not know about his votes). Michael is the question mark. Does he stay on the pole and outlast Keith and Tina? Even if he loses, if he stays up long enough, he may convince Ogakor to vote for him. But I don't think so. I think Tina finds out the prior votes, Rodger goes, and the outcome is pretty much the same. Bottom line: the game only comes out differently if Kucha wins the last IC. How hard would MB have worked to prevent that?   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-08-01, 06:55 AM (EST) 18. "RE: Two lines" I must respectfully and reluctantly disagree with you, Aya, on one thing: Colby didn't try to stay on the pole in that IC, but if Ogakor was down 6-4 and doom was looming, I think you see a VERY different IC. I think Colby stays right there all night long if he needs to. So does Keith and Tina (who will NOT be stepping down to help a comrade this time!) If Colby fails to win that IC, then I agree with you that he is gone. But if he wins IC, one would THINK it would be Keith, but they might see Tina's resolve and slough her off next. I agree with you that if Kucha loses IC, then Jeff is gone. But I think it is unanimous except for Jeff's vote. Where does that go? Let's say Rodger, although I'm not sure at all, it might be Michael. Where I disagree with you is that Tina would find out who that vote is (but see below for more on this). If Ogakor luckily votes for the guy who has that vote, be it Mike or Rodger (I agree with you that Rodger would go ahead and jump off early and Mike would hang on as would Alicia) then things proceed as they really did. Else? We'd find out what the 3d tiebreaker is, I guess. Your bottom line said it all: "How hard would MB have worked to prevent that?" I have stated before that I fully believe MB misled Kucha into voting for Colby. I would not put it past MB to give Ogakor the info on which Kucha had the crucial previous vote. So MY bottom line is that you're probably right on all this after all! *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-09-01, 10:52 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Two lines" Tina knew about the first vote on Jeff when Kimmi told her about it. Kucha just made the wrong guess with Colby.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-10-01, 07:01 AM (EST) 25. "RE: Two lines" >Tina knew about the first vote on Jeff when Kimmi told >her about it. DUH!!! We KNOW this, friend. >Kucha just made the wrong guess with Colby. My whole point is that they were enticed to make that wrong guess because they were deliberately misinformed. I base this on a couple of facts: 1) Colby jumped off the pole early. The Kucha SHOULD have thought he was confident he couldn't be voted off, that he didn't have any votes. Now maybe he "blurts" out to Nick or someone else that he has a vote (when he doesn't), but that should then make the Kucha suspicious that he's playing them (but oh, what fun that would've been to watch them try to figure it out!). 2)In that vote, WEAKNESS counted above STRENGTH. Sure Colby was a threat (and Alicia was voted out next as a strong threat), but you're looking for the weak links in this tie vote, not the strong ones. Tina and Keith stayed on the pole all night. Keith won immunity, so they COULDN'T vote for him. So they should've considered that Tina might have votes. If Kucha were paying attention, they might have seen some of the dissention with Jerri, especially during challenges. That would've been a tie of previous votes (2 for Jeff, 2 for Jerri), by the way, so there would've had to have been a THIRD tiebreaker. Producers didn't want that, either. No matter what, Kucha should've had NO logical indication that Colby had previous votes in a tie. Hence, my idea that Kucha was misled into thinking that Colby had votes. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-10-01, 05:08 PM (EST) 26. "My personal opinion" At that point in the game, we had five Ogakor left... here's what Kucha knew about each of them: Keith: Jeff suspected he had previous votes. Also, Keith mentioned to Tina that he "needed this"... thus he must be vulnerable... but he won immunity and could not be voted for. Tina: Keith told her that he needed immunity. Alicia was sitting there in the boat when he said that. If Keith needed it, then Tina must have not needed it. Therefore, she is a poor target. Jerri: Although a b!tch in real life, she mastered her acting skills long enough to appear to get along with all of Ogakor... really a much harder task for Ogakor than for Jerri... The apparently did not suspect that she was a #####. Also, in blind leading the blind, Jerri was the tribes leader... Kucha elected Nick because he was a bridge between the two alliances (E/R/M and J/A), and was relatively liked by all of the group. Assuming that Ogakor had employed the same strategy, that meant that Jerri was well-liked. Therefore, Jerri must not have any prior votes (Nick didn't). Amber: Flying under the radar, but probably their second-best target behind Colby. However Colby appeared to be a bigger threat because... Colby: Even though he jumped off of the log early, he was clearly a physical threat (as seen in the water torture challenge, vs. Mike)... Colby was also arrogant (in jumping off early, and also in his taunting of Jeff who stayed on the log a little longer)... his arrogance might have earned him a previous vote from one of the Ogakor being voted out. Also, the only (known) vote in Kucha (remember that they didn't know who Alicia voted for, so Alicia might have one too) jumped off of his log early... who's to say that Colby's jumping off early meant that he had no previous votes. Finally, in the blind leading the blind challenge, Colby threw a bucket of water on Jerri... Ogakor was far in the lead, but it was a combination of Jerri's directions and Amber's deer-in-the-headlights personality that ultimately cost them that challenge... However, Colby came across as a poor loser by throwing the bucket on Jerri, and Jerri actually came across as the calm, level-headed one when she laughed it off... All of these things makes Colby the best target for a Kucha vote (other than Keith)... I honestly think that if I'd been on Kucha, I would have voted for Colby, given that limited information, and there would be no need for MB to intervene... Dawg... not everything is a conspiracy... logic usually prevails, and Occam's Razor says that the simplest solution is usually the correct one... in this case, Colby was the simplest solution, and Kucha took what they could get!   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-10-01, 06:53 PM (EST) 27. "Agree 100%" Only one thing to add... Normally, the person being voted off will vote for either (1) the leader of the tribe or (2) someone disliked. Jeff may have figured out that the person disliked was Keith, and that Keith had prior votes. But who was the Ogakor tribe leader? It would have taken a pretty perceptive person to have looked to Jerri instead of Colby, since Colby was clearly the leader when the tribes merged. This is NOT to say that MB was free of some subtle manipulation. Jeff P. never revealed Kimmi's vote at the E5 TC. Kucha may have gone into the merge thinking that it had two vulnerable members, Jeff and Alicia, each with one vote against. It might have followed a different strategy if it knew that only Jeff was at risk... Knowing only what Kucha knew, I also would have voted for Colby at the merge, and I would've lost. As sleeeve says, Occam's Razor applies. Note to JV: I agree that the name of the nobleman is normally spelled William of Ockham these days. But I learned the theory as Occam's Razor, not Ockham's Razor, and I normally see it written as Occam's Razor, so that's my spelling and I'm sticking with it!   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-11-01, 05:31 AM (EST) 28. "RE: Agree 100%" We've argued about this before, but I'll make my case one last time. NORMALLY, Aya, what you say is correct. However, THIS particular vote was different. Kucha needed to find the WEAK link, not the strong leader. Your caption says you agree 100% with sleeeve. Sleeeve made a (very good) case of why Jerri looked like the Ogie leader. Therefore, by your arguments JERRI should have been looked at by the Kucha's as a strong leader and therefore a target. Furthermore, although I agree it required some perception, and Kucha clearly didnt have much, it wouldn't have taken TOO much effort to find out about Jerri. Jerri was the one who insisted that they build the shelter on the beach, despite Rodger's thoughtful idea that it was safer in the woods. There's a red flag. Jerri got water thrown ONTO her, which to a Kucha might suggest "There's someone getting a vote in TC." I doubt Keith would've been very friendly to Jerri, even though that upcoming vote was imperative. We didn't see everything due to editing, but I find it hard to believe that any Kucha didn't do ANY probing to subtly find out some stuff. After that vote, Lis was all over the place talking to people. Was she not doing this BEFORE that vote? Also, in the water-throwing incident. I posted about this once, but will re-iterate here: What did the Kucha really see? It came to nothing because: 1) Most Kucha didn't see it, they were busy looking at the prizes. 2) Those that did would've and probably did think it was in fun. Jerri's reaction was to laugh and say "Thanks, I needed that." so it looked more like fun than anger. Colby was turned away from everyone, so any disgust in his face very likely wouldn't have been seen. But most importantly: 3) AMBER blew that competition. Jerri's directions got them ahead, and nearly to victory. It was AMBER's stupidity, and AMBER alone, that lost that one. All she had to do was drop the damn basket and it would've been on the table. By rights, Kucha should've thought that Amber blowing that might earn her some votes. Again, I maintain that Colby jumping off the pole so early should've made the Kucha HESITATE to vote for him. Although he was shown taunting Jeff, a lot of stuff was edited out and I understand that a LOT of taunting by everyone was going on. At any rate, please do not tell me that Colby taunting Jeff was the ONLY such occurance. My bottom line: If it WAS a legitimate vote for Colby, then the Kucha got what they so richly, royally deserved. Their stupidity earned them extinction. Of course, I don't think that they legitimately came to the conclusion that Colby had votes, and unless someone sues (HELLO AMBER!!!), I guess we'll never know. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 05-08-01, 05:54 PM (EST) 21. "RE: What if Michael didn't have an accident?" I'll start with the assumption that Kucha wins the immunity challenge when Michael doesn't get hurt in week 6. Ogakor then would go to TC. There would be no reason for Tina to protect Keith this time, since the merger is a day away and Keith gets voted out. This leaves a Barramundi Tribe consisting of Amber, Jeri, Colby, Tina, Roger, Liz, Nick, Alicia, Jeff and Mike. Week 7 - Tina wins Immunity by standing on the pole for ever. Kucha follows preordained startegy and give colby all 6 votes. Jeff gets all of the Ogacor votes. Colby never wins his car and says goodbye. Week 8 - Jerri wins the Boomerang toss, snubs Amber and takes Alicia with her for the meal. It doesn't help her much. Amber wins Immunity. Kucha is tired of Jerri, and doesn't like the fact that she won a challenge. She gets all 6 votes from Kucha (even Alicia). The Ogacors still vote for Jeff. The ##### leaves. Week 9 - Jeff and Alicia win the immunity challenge and see the Great Barrier Reef. No one thinks they are on a honeymoon. Back at Barramindi, Tina is winning friends. the Kuchas decide to get rid of Amber if she loses immunity. Nick wins the log rolling contest. Amber gets all 6 Kucha votes. Ogacors try and start an anti-Mike coalition and give him both of their votes. Week 10 - Mike wins the fire contraption contest. The Jeff, Alicia and Nick Coalition realize that the other Kuchas don't have any votes against them and they all do. Jeff has the most votes and will lose a tie. Therefore, they get Tina to go along with them and vote off Roger. The Liz, Mike and Roger alliance is caught off guard and vote for Tina. 3 votes for Tina and 4 for Roger mean Roger is a goner. Week 11 - Rope contest is won by Mike. He gets the horsebackride and the beer. Liz wins immunity with her talented use of a slingshot. Jeff, Alicia, Tina and Nick vote off what they see as their biggest challenge - Mike. Liz tries to get Tina to convert, but Tina explains she can't. Liz and Mike vote for Jeff. Mike goes home with all his fingers in tact. Week 12 - Tina's family is still the smartest and she wins the reward challenge. Alicia wins the lock contest. The Tina, Nick Alicia and Jeff Alliance get rid of Liz. Liz give her vote to Nick. Week 13 - Alicia wins the penathathon and the car. ALicia, Nick and Jeff vote out the last of the Ogacors. Tina votes against Nick. Week 14 - Jeff wins the fallen commrade IC. He decides to take his long time ally, Alicia and Nick goes home. The jury now consists of Jerri, Amber, Roger, Mike, Liz, Tina and Nick. The women all vote for Alicia. The men vote for Jeff. Alicia is a new millionaire   Top

RockyMountainOyster 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-08-01, 08:38 PM (EST) 22. "RE: What if Michael didn't have an accident?" Thanks, esquire for an interesting "what if" scenario. And thanks to all of you, Aya, Dawg, etc. for your interesting scenarios as well. I figured since we were on leisure time, a little OT post would be OK. Esquire, I can't see all the men voting for Jeff and all the women voting for Alicia. In your hypothetical jury, I can easily see Rodger and Michael voting for Alicia. And possibly one of the women (either Amber or Jerri or both) voting for Jeff. Since this is all conjecture anyway, some of you have already convinced me that Michael would make the final 4. Especially dabo. I think he's right, in that Roger and Liz would "adopt" him as the Kucha's Keith. Yes, I am assuming Kucha winning that IC, but since we'll never know, who cares! rmo   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-08-01, 10:07 PM (EST) 23. "Thank you, Oyster" Thanks for starting an interesting thread that forced us to confront what we REALLY thought would have happened. Notice the absence of flames, newbie or not -- interesting topics don't draw them. We're glad to have you with us; hope you stay around for S3!   Top

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