And my nomination goes to Sleeeve for this post dated March 23rd.The reason for the nomination is because it involves uncovering what was the single biggest secret of SII, that being the existence of the Tina/Colby alliance. MB tried to shield it from us all the way until the second to last episode, but Sleeeve picked up on it a month and a half ago.
I know that others, including Ayak, have been huge proponents of this theory for a long time, but I think Sleeeve may be the originator of it....so without further ado, my POY nomination for SII:
In order to determine the next victim of TC, I think we need to ask:
"Who is really calling the shots in Ogakor?"
Many people have speculated that Jerri, the self-proclaimed control freak, is really calling the shots, and that the others are just going along with it to keep her happy until its time to break down the Ogie Five.
As anyone who has been reading my posts knows, I've been speculating for the last week that Colby is really in the position to call the shots. He's the swing vote, so both alliances need him...
However, you may realize that I have not been too quick to defend my opinion ever since the Mitchell transcript was posted (thanks AK!)
Something hit me while reading that, and I think it was verified in several ways when I watched Ep8.5, last night...
I think that a secret alliance between Tina and Colby may be calling the shots.
Now before I posted this, I wanted to gather all of the evidence that I could so that I wouldn't get flamed for unfounded speculation, so I'll post the evidence, and then let all of you decide for yourself whether I am deluded into hoping my fav. survivor (Tina) has a shot at the million, or if I may actually be onto something...
First, I think we need to give some credibility to the statement made by MB that "Alliances do not play as big a role in this survivor" (or something to that effect... couldn't find it word-for-word). Every time I say I believe MB, shakes (and many others) flame me and remind me that MB has said "never believe a word I say. I'll do anything to protect my show."
Here's my problem: If MB wants Survivor to remain a hit, he can't lie. Those of us that are trying to spoil the show by guessing the winner are in the minority. The majority of the TV audience views the show as good entertainment, and would be very turned off if something MB said was an outright lie... a clever play on words (the only injury was an "achilles heel": slang meaning "an annoyance causing a change in plans"... a perfect description of what happened) or a half-truth will be accepted as a part of the game, but if he were to come out and say "alliances do not play a role in the show" and then an alliance that was formed on day 1 ends up winning the game, people would write the show off as predictable and would not watch season 3. For this reason, you will notice that none of our real red herrings have come directly from MB (although many of us speculate that MB had a huge hand in them): The Gervase-X and the source code are from the website, other fake pictures, possible moles on the message boards, etc, etc, etc.
Consequently I will go out on a limb and say that alliances (as we know them) will NOT hold up... However, I would also say that an alliance will be needed to win... thus...
Here are the segments of the Mitchell transcript that caught my attention:
"jerri and he (Mitchell) agreed to NEVER VOTE FOR EACH OTHER....they approached tina first...then colby (followed by many whistles) then amber...ALL JOINED....the plan was to take out kel first...then maralyn, then keith...then they'd work on themselves...sub alliances had already been formed also, in jerri, mitchell, and colby..."
"keith had figured out he was gone....but on the way to tribal council tina approached mitchell, who said he didn't feel vulnerable at all...but tina approached him about voting for amber instead of keith cuz keith is strong and can get us to the merge...mitch said he wouldn't vote for amber so she suggested jerri, to which he said he wouldn't vote for jerri....so tina said he has to decide whether he wants to win this game or stay loyal to his friends, to which he replied he wanted to stay loyal to his friends...she went afterwards and explained this to colby....knowing that in the case of a tie mitch would be gone...he talked to colby on the way there and colby never let on he'd vote for mitchell...."
First, I'd like to point out that ALL of the contestants saw S1, and they all know that an alliance will be needed to make it to the finals, so I am not surprised that Mitch and Jerri formed an alliance right away... But now, let's look at this from the point of view of Tina. She is VERY smart (she even scares Rich Hatch) and she knows how the game needs to be played.
On the first day, Jerri and Mitch approach Tina and say "we've already formed an alliance, you want in??" and then all three of them approach Colby and say the same thing...
How likely is it that Tina and Colby are gonna say "sure, I don't mind being on the perimeter of an alliance... It'll get me to the final four, and then I can be voted out like Sue or pray for an immunity run, like Kelly... no problem.)
Instead, I think it's very likely that Tina and Colby formed a counter-alliance and kept it a secret from the others (and maybe even the camera... a possible reason that alliances "as we know them" will not play a role in the show.)
Now, with this in mind, Tina and Colby are able to work independantly, knowing that the two of them will not vote for each other. What kind of great strategy is it to separate, form other fake alliances, and then feed each other information about their tribe-mates? For those that watched The Mole, it's exactly how Steve and Jim made it to the finals.
"Proof":
1) Reread the second passage I included... Tina first tries to convince Mitch to switch his vote to either Jerri or Amber... Jerri first (it will break up his inner alliance, giving C/T the advantage, plus easier to grab Keith... he'll vote Jerri no matter what)... second, look at his description. From his POV, Tina first tried to get Mitch to change his vote, but when he wouldn't, she "convinced" Colby and Keith...
BUT... where did Tina get the idea... earlier in the episode, we see Colby lamenting that Keith will be voted out... he doesn't want the strongest to leave... he even tries to talk Jerri into changing her vote with "you, me and Amber to the end"
My take: C/T decide they will lose the IC's without Keith... they've already made a big mistake in voting out Kel, so they decide to work on their fake alliance members to try to change their votes... Tina gets reassurance from Keith that he will vote however he needs to in order to save himself. Then Colby tries to get Jerri to take out Mitch... if she agrees, Colby and Tina can vote for Mitch, and they won't be defecting from the alliance... they can stay covert a little longer. It doesn't work, so Tina, who is better friends with Mitch than Colby is, tries to convince him to change his vote to Jerri or to Amber... no reason for Colby and Tina to be cast out of the alliance yet.
But she fails... Ultimately, Tina talks to Colby and then to Keith, and instructs them to vote for Mitch, leaving Jerri behind (Colby knows after his talk with Jerri that even if Mitch is voted out, Jerri will not blame Colby), and Mitch leaves. Jerri forgives Colby (he warned her it was coming), but no longer completely trusts him, aligning herself with Amber. And the rest, as they say is history...
2) Who has consistently befriended the person about to be voted off?? Tina... to gain information on their voting strategies... Mad Dog, Kel and Mitch were all shocked that Tina voted for them in their post-show interviews... all (especially Mad Dog) thought that they were allied with her... Why would she cut their throats unless she had another alliance waiting in the wings AND she had information that they were going to be booted anyway. Which brings me to...
3) Who are the ONLY people on the show to have consistently voted together! for every single person to be cast out of the outback??? Tina and Colby... they have the necessary information to make informed decisions and they always vote for the loser.
4) If Tina was in Jerri's alliance, why did she work so hard to befriend the non-alliance members (Kel, Keith and Marilyn)... Answer: She's not really in Jerri's alliance, but merely using it as a means to an end.
5) Tina has even made it a point to befriend the Kucha tribe who are about to be voted out one-by-one... Why? To gain information and possibly manipulate their voting strategy when the time comes to vote for an Ogie (if any of them are left). (And a little jury sympathy could never hurt.)
6) Colby's late night lie to Jerri... we know for sure he isn't in their alliance... he's playing double agent until the time comes to capitalize on his position.
7) Tina decides to publicly denounce Jerri's manipulation of the cooking (but only after Ogakor has a one-man advantage in Barramundi)... Why? Because after Ep7, Kucha's target was Colby, and she needed them to shift strategies and think that there was a chance she'd vote for Jerri. The reason: to keep the number of tie-breaking votes down for Colby, just in case a tie should ever come up... don't be surprised, now that Jerri has 6 past votes if Tina tries to manipulate the number of votes Keith has so that he too will lose in a tie with Colby... The better Colby's chances, the better Tina's.
8) In the IC immediately following the merger, who put themselves in the two positions where they would be most likely to recieve votes?? Colby, by jumping off of his post and looking smug, and Tina, by staying up there for a long time implying that she had a reason to worry. Of course Tina eventually gave Keith immunity-- it was necessary for Ogakor to win, but Tina and Colby both actively tried to draw votes at the first Barramundi TC... coincidence? or the acts of a smart alliance...
9) Colby and Tina have never had an on-camera argument (although this can be said of Tina and anybody except Jerri)
10) The Tina/Keith "friendship"... it's similar to the Mad Dog/Tina friendship, in that Tina has never acknowledged it on camera. Mad Dog proclaimed that she and Tina had become inseperable, and then was voted off. Keith described Tina as a sister... but what are Tina's feelings? Is he merely her next pawn in the game?
I think anyone else who wants to nominate a post go right ahead and then maybe we'll have some kind of vote for the ultimate POY winner.
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