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MetsGirl 9 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-04-01, 11:00 PM (EST) "How did Elipsiiis know?" Sorry I don't know if I spelled that right.But how did they know Tina would win? And how did they provide us all those spoilers? What is MB doing bout it, if ne thing??   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: How did Elipsiiis know? SurvivinDawg 05-05-01 1    RE: How did Elipsiiis know? Thinking 05-05-01 2        RE: How did Elipsiiis know? bondt007 05-07-01 3            RE: How did Elipsiiis know? SurvivinDawg 05-07-01 4                RE: How did Elipsiiis know? bondt007 05-07-01 5    RE: How did Elipsiiis know? DivaByTheSea 05-07-01 6        RE: How did Elipsiiis know? Survivorerist 05-07-01 7        RE: How did Elipsiiis know? SurvivinDawg 05-07-01 8            RE: How did Elipsiiis know? idiotcowboy 05-07-01 9                RE: How did Elipsiiis know? SurvivinDawg 05-08-01 10  RE: How did Elipsiiis know? Lurking 05-09-01 11    "Dunkle Flusse" is german for "Dark... Krautboy 05-12-01 12        RE: "Dunkle Flusse" is german for "... SurvivinDawg 05-12-01 13            RE: "Dunkle Flusse" is german for "... Krautboy 05-13-01 14                Author of E13 summary flying squirrel 05-13-01 15                    Ayatollah is a member!?! Krautboy 05-16-01 16                        Did Ellipsiiis know? AyatollahKhomeini 05-18-01 17                            RE: Did Ellipsiiis know? Minstrel 05-18-01 18                                RE: Did Ellipsiiis know? VampKira 05-18-01 19                                To Minstrel AyatollahKhomeini 05-18-01 20                                    RE: To Minstrel Minstrel 05-18-01 21                                        RE: To Minstrel Lurking 05-21-01 22

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-05-01, 10:30 AM (EST) 1. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" When Amber was voted out in defiance of ANY logic that I could see, the Brain Trust had it right. From that moment, I believed, and still believe, that they had an inside source. I also believed they intentionally "threw" an RC prediction or two, but they didn't miss a single bootee from a long way back (Jeff or Alicia, I don't remember as I was a newbie myself right around then). Was MB trying to find out about them? I think he was, don't you think so also? I believe that Ellipsiis put out a few red herrings of their own in order to protect their source. This is just IMHO, no proof or anything, but I believe that they actually said what their source was, but said it in a way as to appear to be a red herring: I think their source intercepted the satellite feeds, decrypted the encryption, and therefore had the answers. I believe this because not only would it give them the bootees, it would give them the knowledge needed to make their guesses LOOK like guesses and such. It would give them the knowledge to look at preview pics and "deduce" from those "other" sources what happened. As Toranaga said in James Clavell's Shogun, "It is easy to find the solution once given the answer." Elipsiis HAD the answer, so they could easily go about finding the "solution." That's my guess, and I'm sticking to it. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Thinking 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-05-01, 10:36 PM (EST) 2. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" I'm with you. Definitely an inside job. I was going back and forth on whether they had a source. But after Amber, I knew they did. Not only did they predict her, they were unable to provide a single bit of concrete EVIDENCE to explain how they reached their conclusion. Same with Colby winning immunity in the plate-breaking challenge. There was NO reason to assume he would win that one--and NO hints anywhere what form that challenge would take.   Top

bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-07-01, 01:18 PM (EST) 3. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" Agree. Got to be "other" information. HOW do you call Colby a winner so often when he was losing until the end. Sling shot, should have been Liz; Locks and chains, should have been Keith; fire barrel, Keith again. I know there are others, but you CANNT be that lucky... Smells fishy, but oh well...   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-01, 02:22 PM (EST) 4. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" >Smells fishy, but oh well... Whoa! It's not "fishy" that they might have an inside source. I look at it in a very POSITIVE light, not a negative one. The purpose of this board, as well as the Ellipsiis board, is to SPOIL THE SHOW. If they have a great source, and proceed to spoil the show, I say YOU GO, BRAIN TRUST! AND TO HELL WITH MB!!! *ahem*, er.. ahh.. sorry about... lost control for a sec.... *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-07-01, 02:36 PM (EST) 5. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" The "Oh well" comment should have been in BOLD. I ment "oh well" like "TOO BAD", or "TOUGH TOASTIES", or "NA NA NA" , all directed to MB...   Top

DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-07-01, 02:39 PM (EST) 6. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" >When Amber was voted out in >defiance of ANY logic that >I could see, the Brain >Trust had it right. >From that moment, I believed, >and still believe, that they >had an inside source. I don't think that Amber was thrown out in defiance of logic. I thought it actually made pretty good sense. C/T and KKK were keeping that slight edge over the remaining Kuchas, while taking the ones that they "liked" the furthest. Amber didn't serve any purpose to any of them. THey liked her, but not enough to carry her on through. The way the show was edited, you could 'somewhat' deduce who was potentially next. The story arch was there, and it retrospect, it was there at the first episode. As far as Elipsiiis knowing the whole deal....something was more than logic deduction there....someone had to have known something. They were too on target all the time. **** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****   Top

Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 05-07-01, 06:11 PM (EST) 7. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" >>>I don't think that Amber was thrown out in defiance of logic. I thought it actually made pretty good sense.<<< I agree with DBTS. I don't think Ellipsiiis made that prediction with any extraordinary help. The brain trust could've done it easily. All TE really needed was to have a person watching each individual character closely and studying them (16 watchers total). Then every week, they go around their table and ask each person "What do you think about <your castaway>?" They then would have additional information that few others do. Then their votes would become much more accurate than if every member was trying to keep tabs on everyone. Just my thoughts... ================ Survivorerist N.L.F.C. G.A.W.D. N.T.B.U.G.F. "It's day seven and we just caught our first fish. It did take us a week but, hey, it's better than two weeks." -The Early Days of the Late Amber Brkich   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-01, 07:04 PM (EST) 8. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" I don't disagree that it could have been figured out.... but to me, there are a lot of questions... like why DIDN'T Amber make that deal with the Kuchas? I think she tried... and the PRODUCERS, not wanting Amber so close to the finish, nixed it. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 05-07-01, 07:52 PM (EST) 9. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" Dawg- Not that I am a big fan of elipsiiis, no one likes someone who is always right! Lord knows they seemed to have some information that the rest of were not privy to, but it could have been something as simple as a statement that Colby kicks butt in challenges from a source they actually believed. Or if they had it on good authority that one person won most of the challenges, and you evaluated the contestants who would you have picked it to be? Note that elipsiiis picked Colby to win everything (except final vote) from Nick on. Which he did with the exception of the Tina web-chat (and they got that wrong). Couple that with the fact that the Amber pick was not as surprising as you might think. After all I picked her without the help of elipsiiis or BH or anyone else for that matter. Just based on known spoilers and logic. I'm attaching a link to my post, and know that if I could come up with this... and be right. They could just as easily used similar logic. http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1237.shtml for comparison I have also attach a link to the elipsiiis summary as well. http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1248.shtml Note that there are several inaccuracies to their prediction, although the basic premise is right. We all (well most of us) discounted ryanbbb for inaccuracies in his story, and yet no one could argue with his boot order which was perfect until he picked on the Immunity King. To say elipsiiis had an inside source just because of this pick is rather an overstatement in my opinion. Believe what you want, but Jerri was a much more stupid removal at the time she left, than Amber was when it was her time to go. fianlly > like why DIDN'T Amber make that deal with the Kuchas? Why would she? She felt safe with Colby and Tina. Granted it was a dumb move, but the Kucha that were remaining didn't show they were all that smart either. When Alisha and Jeff went out the combined Survivor IQ of the kucha team took a major drop. Sorry but LisJustIs'nt that smart. -ICB   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-08-01, 06:30 AM (EST) 10. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" LAST EDITED ON 05-08-01 AT 06:33 AM (EST) >Not that I am a big fan of elipsiiis, no one likes someone who is always right! I do. Anyone who is successful or right all the time earns my respect, not my jealousy or emnity. I guess I should ask you: Why DON'T you like someone who is always right? Do you have a problem with success? Were you one of those that hated Colby for winning all those challenges? IMHO, it is this philosophy of hating those who are successful and have achieved (called "class warfare") that is destroying the world. Okay, off the philosophical soapbox and back to the message: >Lord knows they seemed to have some information >that the rest of were not privy to, but it >could have been something as simple as a statement that >Colby kicks butt in challenges from a source they actually >believed. Or if they had it on good authority that ... Sure, it's POSSIBLE that they just guessed everything right. But THINK about it. To be correct THAT OFTEN seems to defy those odds. As Agatha Christie wrote, you can always have one coincidence, but you can never have two. EBT has amassed quite a few "coincidences" of being correct. > Note that elipsiiis picked Colby to win everything (except >final vote) from Nick on. Which he did with the exception of the Tina web-chat (and they got that >wrong). As I've said, I believe that the EBT deliberately got some things (minor things like an RC or two) wrong in order to protect their source. If I had a source this valuable, I'd protect it also. It's like in World War II when the British broke the German ENIGMA code. They knew about Germany's transports of material to Rommel's Afrikakorps, but let half of them get through so that Germany wouldn't figure out that the code had been broken. >Couple that with the fact that the Amber pick was not >as surprising as you might think. >.... >and be right. They >could just as easily used >similar logic. Read my above messages on sweet Amber, I'm not going to re-hash all that. Again, yes it's POSSIBLE they could've just guessed... but I don't believe it. >the Immunity King. To say elipsiiis had an inside >source just because of this pick is rather an overstatement >in my opinion. I didn't say Ellipsiis had an inside source based on this one pick... I said that when they made that pick I realized that truth. I say they have an inside pick based on their whole track record, which was perfect for bootees (including naming Tina as the winner, Colby second and Keith third) from way on back when. >Believe what you want, but Jerri was a much more stupid >removal at the time she left, than Amber was when >it was her time to go. Jerri was not a smart pick strategy-wise IF AMBER HAD DEFECTED, but I picked her (Jerri) to go that week correctly partly because I knew how much the other contestants hated her. And it wasn't a stupid removal.. if they DIDN'T wax Jerri when they did, they couldn't the next episode for the same reason, and then she might have won immunity. Nine more days of Jerri? The nation, much less Keith and Lislis, couldn't have stomached that. edited to add: This next is on Amber defecting: >Why would she? Because it was her only shot to make the Final Three. >She felt safe with Colby and Tina. And see where it got her... Amber should have THOUGHT about this, not FELT about it. > Granted it was a dumb move, but the Kucha that were remaining didn't show they were all that smart >either. NO doubt about that! The bottom line here is that you can believe what you want to. I've stated what I think about the situation. I can't prove it, and I don't expect the EBT to issue a press release confirming my suspicions. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-09-01, 10:31 PM (EST) 11. "RE: How did Elipsiiis know?" Someone from the EBT has a source named "Dark Rivers" who gave them more info than the previews did. Unlike the people here, for instance, EBT aren't pure speculators, technically speaking.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-12-01, 11:38 AM (EST) 12. ""Dunkle Flusse" is german for "Dark Rivers"!!!" Lurking, you are right... I finally went to the Ellipsiiis site and read their final prediction and summary. A member of the EBT, AtlantaFatMike, wrote a summary of meeting with the EBT "source" called "The Secret is in the Source". It is entertaining and revealing... AtlantaFat Mike describes a meeting with a pirate and his "source": a parrot called "DUNKLE FLUSSE". The interesting thing is that "Dunkle Flusse" is a direct German translation for "Dark Rivers". While it may be somewhat camoflauged, it is a direct confirmation/confession of Dark Rivers as the EBT insider "source". It also seems clear that "Dark Rivers" gives them the key information and the EBT fills in around it; sometimes correctly guessing the details, sometimes not. We are "pure" they are not...   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-12-01, 11:44 AM (EST) 13. "RE: "Dunkle Flusse" is german for "Dark Rivers"!!!" Good work on the translation, kraut. I should have seen that one. The old phrase "if that had been a rattlesnake it would've bit me " comes to mind. However, I disagee with one thing you wrote: "We are "pure" they are not..." If they have a SOURCE, there is no better spoiler posssible. Therefore, THEY are pure, we are merely dirty nasty speculators. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-13-01, 02:27 AM (EST) 14. "RE: "Dunkle Flusse" is german for "Dark Rivers"!!!" Dawg, maybe your right. I guess I'm just jealous that we didn't have a source. I'll be curious to see if DarkRivers surfaces again for S3 or if MB will try to seal up the leaks. I was hoping that someone from the SB board would be selected for S3 and plan to give us clues in some kind of code that we developed before the filming began...   Top

flying squirrel 290 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-13-01, 08:09 PM (EST) 15. "Author of E13 summary" Krautboy, look who the author of the previous summary was: http://www.ellipsiiis.com/survivor/ourpick13.shtml   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-16-01, 10:05 AM (EST) 16. "Ayatollah is a member!?!" I've been doing some reading over at other sights and have come to realize that Ayatollah is apparently a member of the "Ellipsiiis Brain Trust". That doesn't surprise me because AK is an excellent poster, but it surprises me that he didn't mention it over on this board. I've gone along for months thinking that he posted primarily over here and read his posts about Ellipsiis thinking he was talking about "them"... Squirrel, Metsgirl, and anyone else who has unanswered questions should ask AK. I think he can answer any questions about "How did Ellipsiis know?   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-18-01, 01:16 AM (EST) 17. "Did Ellipsiiis know?" Well, as Krautboy points out, I can answer a few of these questions... 1. How did ellipsiiis know that Tina wins? Anybody who read the "Reasoning behind our Picks" on the EBT site from E14 (which I think is extremely well-written, and I don't just say that because I wrote it) would realize that ellipsiiis didn't know Tina was going to win. ellipsiiis runs weekly voting threads, just like the one here. The voting thread for E14 started early, because we put a Wednesday cutoff time on it. Just like here, a narrow majority of voters picked Tina to beat Colby. Back after E8, the EBT decided as a policy matter that we wouldn't hedge our bets -- we'd pick a clear winner on every issue, even if there was only a one-vote margin. We based this decision on the "weatherman" theory -- no one wants to know if there is a 40% chance of rain for tomorrow; they want to know if it's going to rain or not. Good weathermen make a clear prediction. If they are wrong, so what? But if they are right, everyone remembers. Well, that's just what happened in the E14 voting. We were right (even though some of us were wrong <hangs head in shame>). 2. What is MB doing about it? Nothing, I hope. What was he going to do about luck? Put a hex on the EBT? 3. Was the Amber boot illogical? Only if you didn't believe that Jerri's final chat was a spoiler, and you didn't take Amber's personality into account. Or, alternatively, only if you believed Uncle Cameraman. The EBT did not. 4. Did EBT deliberately throw any predictions? No. I know I'll never convince everybody of this, but we wanted to prove that Survivor 2 was spoiled! Our goal was to miss nothing. 5. Did EBT have access to an early video of the show, either through satellite feeds or any other way? We had decided not to answer this question officially, because we thought it was so funny that people believed we had to have such access. But the show's over, so here's the truth -- the answer is no, at least for S2 (we can but hope for S3). 6. Were the "reasons behind the predictions" so weak because there weren't any reasons? No, they were weak because they were thrown together at the last minute, when the serious spoilers were busy with work and unable to help. The only exception was E14, which was written between 3 AM and 5 AM (VampKira, you would have been proud of me!) to be posted simultaneously with the AFM stories. 7. Did the EBT have individuals who followed the information about each castaway and then had a roundtable discussion each week, as Survivorerist surmised? No, but I'll bet that it will in S3. That is simply one of the best ideas that I have heard in a long time. Thanks, Sur-ist! 8. Is DarkRivers a source? Well, if a source is an insider, then no. On the other hand, if you would consider Peter ("The Stingray") Lance to be a source, then DarkRivers was a source -- because the correct comparison for DR is Peter Lance. The only difference is that Lance was using whatever information he uncovered to make himself into another Mark Burnett. DR, by contrast, was not trying to sell an "all about me" book; any information that he came up with came solely to the EBT. This information was weighed along with the other spoilers for each week' Everyone, I hope that I have answered your questions regarding the EBT. IMO, it's time to stop thinking about other boards until S3.   Top

Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 05-18-01, 05:33 AM (EST) 18. "RE: Did Ellipsiiis know?" I guess my question is, with or without a souce, can we do something similiar for S3 as Ellipsiiis evidently does? Pardon me as I intend no disrespect, but Ellipsiiis seemed to form to spoil the show and not have to wade through meaningless posts (not that this site falls into the category of what evidently occurred on EZ). As I remember, the "application" to join Ellipsiiis really just wanted to show ability to present information logically. In other words, "tell us how and why you think Jeff wins?" (etc.) It needed not to be right. And, for any ELP's out there, do you have "lurkers" too? I know the membership is small compared to probably every other major Survivor message board. So is posting a requirement once a member? Anyway, I propose our site formulate a similiar format as Ellipsiiis does. After all, why not copy the best? Can we pool spoiler information and update it as to accuracy? Do we want a cast/boot sheet, etc.? We already have vote threads and discussion threads. There's plenty of time to set up additional organizational areas. "What say ye mods and members?"   Top

VampKira 4433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 05-18-01, 08:45 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Did Ellipsiiis know?" LAST EDITED ON 05-18-01 AT 08:50 AM (EST) >>>The only exception was E14, which was written between 3 AM and 5 AM (VampKira, you would have been proud of me!)<<<< Oh AK!! I am ALWAYS proud of you, my fellow nudie mag magnet! Besides... I warned you from the beginning, that once bitten...... EDITED TO ADD: One of MY favorite Jack Handey Deep Thoughts... "One thing Vampire children are taught is, never run with a wooden stake." w.l.s.f.c. Du ar min hjälte, Supermänniska   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-18-01, 06:10 PM (EST) 20. "To Minstrel" LAST EDITED ON 05-18-01 AT 06:13 PM (EST) >I guess my question is, with or without a souce, can >we do something similiar for S3 as Ellipsiiis evidently does? Yes, but I'm not the right person to lead this effort -- I simply don't have the time to take the lead in this. > Pardon me as I intend no disrespect, but Ellipsiiis seemed to form to spoil >the show and not have to wade through meaningless posts (not that this >site falls into the category of what evidently occurred on EZ). You're right, Minstrel. The motivating factor behind the EBT was the disaster of the EZboard ... with its disappearing threads and tons of spam. A lot of that has been cleaned up by better admins and mods, and please note the "MESS Hall." >As I remember, the "application" to join Ellipsiiis really just wanted >to show ability to present information logically. In other >words, "tell us how and why you think Jeff wins?" (etc.) It needed >not to be right. Exactly right, Minstrel. I voted for people to be admitted even though I was sure that their theories (for example, the GGA) were BS. BTW, my post for admission (which, for the record, was done on 3/20, the same day as my first post on the subject here) discussed the existence of the Colby/Tina alliance! >And, for any ELP's out there, do you have "lurkers" too? I know the >membership is small compared to probably every other major Survivor >message board. So is posting a requirement once a member? Yes, posting is a requirement. The EBT expects everyone to participate. >Anyway, I propose our site formulate a similiar format as Ellipsiiis >does. After all, why not copy the best? Can we pool spoiler information >and update it as to accuracy? Do we want a cast/boot sheet, etc.? >We already have vote threads and discussion threads. There's >plenty of time to set up additional organizational areas. All of this can be done here. It's a question of time commitment, and I don't have any to spare right now. But Minstrel or Krautboy, you or someone else needs to take the lead if this is going to be done here, and you might want to find out up front how many people are willing to contribute time to this project.   Top

Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 05-18-01, 11:21 PM (EST) 21. "RE: To Minstrel" Aya, thanks for your response! Well fellow posters, what do you think? Anyone capable of doing this or helping out? We will need a strong team of dedicated people to pull this off. Perhaps someone that can put up a web site to link to with all the information? KB? What do you think? Do we have any volunteers? Who wants to do this? Anyone with more ideas?   Top

Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-21-01, 11:41 PM (EST) 22. "RE: To Minstrel" Just as I thought, there is a source after all. Not the source, but a source that some EBT members believed. I'd guess that "Dark Rivers" was a factor in giving the narrow EBT poll victory to Tina.   Top

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