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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 05-02-01, 05:12 PM (EST) "Jury Analysis" Well Final Three is set. Most spoilers are DEAD or complete. The three possible combos for the final 2 are known. 24 hours left before show time. Not many clues, yet. What to do... Analyze the jury, of course! One thing we know is that the jury voted while in OZ... BEFORE they saw the show, or heard the comments that were made, or the strategy that was used against them. So it should be somewhat revealing to look at the contestants perceptions of their peers at the time of their departure, more so than their perceptions now. This coupled with what their fellow bootee's thoughts and known friendships may be instrumental in determining the ultimate winner... if the brain trust would just tell us who the final 2 is... that is. So, lets start... ALISHA- Did not spend too much time with the Ogre three. Could have had some positive feelings toward Keith for speaking out against Jerri. Same goes for Tina. Might have had some respect for Colby from an athletic/competitive standpoint... but might have had ill feelings due to his involvement in Jeff's ousting. Friendship with Jerri is a wild card here... they really seemed to have had a lot of time to talk about stuff. Probably did not hurt Colby's standing with her... but might have hurt Tina's. My take is: 1st-COLBY, 2nd(close)-TINA, 3rd (distant)-KEITH JERRI- Has strong feelings about the remaining three. Especially Keith. Did not appear to blame Colby much in post-game interviews/chat... always tempered in her comments. Did appear to blame Tina for her demise, if Tina is there expect a Soosin speech. Can't see her voting for Keith though... just cant see it. So I'm not sure she'd be a happy jurist if her choice was between T and K... does that mean its not? hum... My take is: 1st-COLBY, 2nd (distant)-KEITH, 3rd (Soosin distant)-TINA NICK- Definitely has a bond with Colby now... but then? Perhaps a certain respect for his physical abilities, but my take is the friendship grew post game. Shown that he didn't much care for Keith's attitude. Probably hung out with Jerri and Alisha after his boot, so expect pro-Colby sentiment. My take is: 1st-COLBY, 2nd (close)-TINA, 3rd (distant)-KEITH AMBER- The classic follower... to the end. She is the one most likely to pull a Greg. Seemed to be more aligned with Colby, and probably he would get her vote, but also liked Tina. Keith was not real nice to her, so I don't see her voting for him... but she is hard to read. My take is: 1st-COLBY,2nd (real close)-TINA, 3rd (close)-KEITH RODGER- He and Keith were fishing buddies. He and Tina got along real well to. Hard to tell who he liked best. Not likely to be swayed by any jurist other than Lis. No real strong bond with Colby shown. My take is: 1st-TINA, 2nd-KEITH, 3rd-COLBY LIS- She liked Colby and Tina... probably liked Tina better. Did not like Keith. Made few bones about it. My take is: 1st-TINA, 2nd (close)-COLBY, 3rd (distant)-KEITH COLBY- Wouldn't vote for Keith. KEITH- Wouldn't vote for Colby. TINA- Not clear... but I defer to the Tennessee/Texas alliance folks and say Colby. You need 4 votes to win: Tina vs. Keith... Tina wins with Alisha, Nick, Lis, and Colby (and probably Rodger and Amber) Keith vs. Colby... Colby wins with Alisha, Jerri, Nick, and Lis (and probably Tina and Amber) Colby vs. Tina... Colby has Jerri for sure, Tina has Rodger and Keith. The others I have slanted towards Colby (except Lis)... but realistically they could go either way. -ICB PS: hey squirrel... I know where I’ve been... OT... krautboy... well I'm sure he's out there somewhere.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Jury Analysis ACPS65 05-02-01 1    Rich and Keith idiotcowboy 05-02-01 2    The only way Keith can win the mil StratPlayer 05-02-01 8  RE: Jury Analysis Krautboy 05-02-01 3    RE: Jury Analysis idiotcowboy 05-02-01 4        Would it hurt so much for... ACPS65 05-02-01 5  Why is will be T/C in the finals sleeeve 05-02-01 6  RE: Jury Analysis Befuzzled 05-02-01 7    DarkRiver's Finale Krautboy 05-03-01 9        No AyatollahKhomeini 05-03-01 10            Tina/Colby final Outfrontgirl 05-03-01 11                Jury vote AyatollahKhomeini 05-03-01 12  RE: Jury Analysis Play2Survive 05-03-01 13

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ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-02-01, 06:15 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Jury Analysis" I think a majority of the people have been going in the wrong direction.....I think Keith wins. This time last season, everyone would have thought Richard would have had no votes casted against him to win if he even would be able to make it to the final 2. And he won. I think many (not saying on here) thought that Rich would be the least likely person to win....not because they didn't like him...but because he just had no chance. Keith, in the past, has proven to be a good speaker. Check out Episode 4 TC during the tiebreaker. I also think he's been very aware during tribal councils with the jury, acting very modest in his character. I could be way off though, and Tina and Colby may take the whole thing...but there is one thing I'm sure of....one of the latter two will be the first to go. Binadict Tina or the ol' Colbster. Take your pick. One of them won't make it to the final 2....both would be nuts not to take Keith with them.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 05-02-01, 07:07 PM (EST) 2. "Rich and Keith" The difference between Rich and Keith, oh... my where to start. Keith is the outsider loner... with a somewhat obnoxious personality. Rich was obnoxious, but he was firmly in charge and feared/respected by all. Even then he only won because Greg pulled a wacko stunt at the end. BTW- Did you listen to any of Lis's comments about Keith? Here the sweetest person in all of the Outback is saying some pretty nasty things about him. More so than I thought she would.. if she was against him... and has Rodger's ear... WHO votes for Keith at all? ... Jerri? From what we've been shown and know... Keith can not win. -ICB   Top

StratPlayer 27 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 05-02-01, 11:40 PM (EST) 8. "The only way Keith can win the mil" Tina wins the IC. She picks Keith. Colby is pissed because he and Tina had a pact to go all the way into the final two together. Colby gives a speech about how Tina is a lying back stabber. Colby says "Keith might be a bozo but he is an honest bozo." Nobody is going to care if Jerri gives a speech about how Tina is a snake. But if Colby talks bad about Tina the jurors might listen. BTW, I see no chance of this happening. Colby is not the vindictive type.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-02-01, 07:35 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Jury Analysis" Howdy ICB, I've been out of town for a few weeks... Looks like you've done all the work. Not much left to do. Besides, not much to work with. MB has been very stingy with the previews. It'll be real interesting to see what the "brain trust" comes up with in an information vacuum. Should confirm if they have "insider source" or not... I agree that anyone wins against Keith. Tina vs. Colby, as you point out, would be the most interesting Jury vote. Colby is respected for his challenge victories, but Tina has to get respect for her gamesmanship. No votes against her yet!! Unfortunately, both Tina and Colby are fierce competitors and have been able to set sentimentality aside when it counts. If either one wins immunity, they take Keith with them. So there is no real chance that Tina will face Colby...   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 05-02-01, 08:06 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Jury Analysis" LAST EDITED ON 05-02-01 AT 08:09 PM (EST) Krautboy, Glad your back. Actually I haven't contributed much myself of late... P2S, sleeve, AK, Dawg, Icecat, CJ, Outfrontgirl, and a bunch more (even shakes) have been doing the heavy lifting around here I've been living on their good work. flying squirrel pointed out our absence so I thought I better start contributing again... before its too late. And yes... I totally agree everyone beats Keith... but for some stupid reason I think the final will be Colby/Tina... no logic behind for it... just my gut feeling. -ICB   Top

ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-02-01, 08:11 PM (EST) 5. "Would it hurt so much for..." ONE PERSON TO AGREE WITH ME THIS FRIGGIN' SEASON?!?!?! But it comes as no suprise considering how this entire UNIVERSE is AGAINST ME! I'm either gonna shove this right up your faces or eat crow one.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-02-01, 08:50 PM (EST) 6. "Why is will be T/C in the finals" LAST EDITED ON 05-02-01 AT 08:53 PM (EST) Remember, this jury vote is the finale, the cliffhanger, the apex of S2... In S1, we had a surprise, come from behind winner... but this time, the apparent underdog lacks a lot of the respect that Rich had... he is a loner, and consequently, it will be difficult for him to win. MB will have edited the season so that the finale is suspenseful and climactic. Having Keith in the finals will not be either, unless he wins... Thus there are only two logical outcomes... 1) Keith comes from behind and wins, but then S2 is accused of being like S1, and also, MB has promised we'll like the winner. Also, as shown above, Keith CANNOT win... he just does not have the votes, no matter what kind of fuzzy math you use, and no matter what Florida election officials are overseeing the vote... 2) Tina and Colby are the final two... No one on any board can agree who will win between the two... therefore, I think that they must be the final two!!! MB has been building the suspense all season, now it's time for the final chapter, and he will not let it crash and burn (that was Mike's job). EDITED for spelling... too bad I can't fix the typo in the subject line...   Top

Befuzzled 65 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 05-02-01, 09:35 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Jury Analysis" LAST EDITED ON 05-02-01 AT 09:39 PM (EST) idiotcowboy: In regards to "if the brain trust would just tell us who the final 2 is... that is."... Check SS EZ Board (spoilers) for a post title "DarkRiver's Finale Spoiler" by DeepKangaroo. (I will try to post the link, but as this is my first post I am bound to screw it up) http://pub53.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm2.showMessageRange?topicID=7945.topic&start=1&stop=20 To understand who DarkRivers is, check the Ellipsiiis site at... http://www.ellipsiiis.com/survivor/dcforum/DCForumID23/97.html Krautboy: In regards to, "It'll be real interesting to see what the "brain trust" comes up with in an information vacuum. Should confirm if they have "insider source" or not..."... See the ellipsiiis link above. Edited to add: I didn't screw it up! WooHoo! And that DeepKangaroo is apparently of survivornews.net   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-03-01, 00:13 AM (EST) 9. "DarkRiver's Finale" Thanks Befuzzeled! Fascinating read. I've been out of town for a few weeks and this helps clear up alot of things for me...I was wondering where the logic came from to vote for Keith to get the boot next! Now it makes sense... I saw Aya's vote in Supermans thread and was stunned. Apparently he is a believer. Personally, I hope this is the culmination of a very elaborate red herring by MB to protect the final episode. I guess we'll see...Thanks again.   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-03-01, 01:01 PM (EST) 10. "No" Krautboy, glad to have you back. Sorry that I responded to you in your DR thread first before seeing this. Actually, I've been pushing the Colby/Tina pact to the final two for a while -- ever since it occurred to me during E11 that the pictures of Keith and Elisabeth's immunity headdress might be this year's version of the fake final two. The fact that E12 began without ANY discussion by Colby about the Amber boot confirmed it -- MB was hiding the ball from us. Well, we knew he'd been hiding the ball since E4, but now we knew how much! I'm glad DR agrees with me. But everyone on this board has known my pick for the final two since long before DR's post! http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID6/371.shtml#16   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-03-01, 02:13 PM (EST) 11. "Tina/Colby final" Idiotcowboy, thanks so much for mentioning me in your list. I have been trying. Yes, I can confirm AyaK's been arguing a Tina/Colby alliance for weeks and weeks. I too have always felt that Keith was merely saved by C and T for his strength (prior to merge, to stop Ogie winning streak) and to form a strong voting bloc and take power from Jerri. Keith's a guy who works for the team and prides himself on it, but doesn't get the one-to-one relationships set up. Very different from Rich. He won't win because of what he did for the team because that doesn't matter any more. As Lis said, he needles people and gets them upset at him. I'm pretty sure Colby wins immunity again and honors his pact with Tina. Maybe he's just in fear that if he boots Tina she'll expose his treachery to the jury and convince them to pick Keith just to serve Colby his just desserts. Once thing we have seen is Tina's power to persuade people from behind the scenes. Colby's well aware that Tina's always gotten her way with the boot because of her power, so he's got to take his chances with her and hope she's made some enemies and he's made some friends and earned some respect for his challenge wins now that the jury's been well fed and gotten over the envy. Once you're out of the game, you don't resent someone for winning rewards; you know you would have gone for it too. MY JURY VOTE For Colby: J/A/A/N Jerri and Amber have both made negative comments about backstabbing--a despised strategy. Both liked Colby and can blame Tina and Keith for their "untimely" boot. Alica respects athleticism and has become friends with Jerri and had lots of time to hear all about Tina. Nick is young and athletic like Colby, and it doesn't sound like Tina was very nurturing to him when he felt sick. As I mentioned somewhere else, Alicia and Nick know that it was Tina who ferreted out the prior vote against Jeff V., and that bit of work arguably cost Kucha the game; it certainly led directly to the boot of Alicia's best friend, Alicia, and then Nick, the physically strong Kuchas. Colby is the only strong young player that survived, and they should identify with him. For Tina: L/R/K Keith's easy, if Colby boots him. He can imagine Tina would have picked him. The older/younger alpha male rivalry will make Keith happy to kill the hopes of the "grasshopper." Tina went to Keith early on when Jerri was running things and pulled him in from the cold. Lis Likes Colby a lot, but her envy's still strong of his wins, because she's a late bootee and she's very competitive and still bummed, even now, that she didn't win even one challenge. Because Tina's a woman, a win for Tina will even the balance. Also, Lis and Tina starved on rice together, wasting away, and that's a bond of privation. Lis likes parental figures. Lis hasn't a bad word to say about Tina and could care less if she stabbed Jerri in the back, or Mitchell. Lis and Tina are strong Christians, as is Rodger So the money's going to the good guys. Fellow southerner. Closest in age. Devoted parent. Worked well with Rodger on the fishing. Saved the rice (a non-swimmer's got to respect her plunge into the flood waters). Said in chat that maybe the finalists got there by backstabbing but that was in the game and doesn't mean they're not nice people in real life, so he does not buy the backstabbing=bad equation that Jerri's pushing. Thinks Jerri's got a big mouth and not inclined to go her direction. Tina managed to make Rodger and Lis feel like she was considering them at the same time she kicked them out. AGE FACTOR This only comes into play if it's not Tina v. Keith. We haven't talked that much about age with S2, except at the beginning. It was such an obvious factor in S1 that it might seem less so here. I do believe though, that the independent young 20's early 30's people think they should rule the world and they are not going to root for the older generation coming out on top, except for Lis, who's clearly fixated on parent figures. The older, more mature people, in their heart of hearts, resent being the underdogs simply because they've lost some youthful vigor. They want to confirm that experience overcomes youth. Unfortunately for Tina, the majority of the jury is from the young and cocky players. As Mom, she ruled the roost with an iron hand in velvet glove, but all her kids except Lis are going to assert their independence and vote for the hunk. I vote for Colby. Admittedly, I can't stand Tina, so I may be just deluding myself until proven wrong.   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-03-01, 02:41 PM (EST) 12. "Jury vote" Outfrontgirl, I agree with your jury votes. I think Colby will get the respect and the votes of the athletic Alicia and Nick, who envisioned themselves winning the game the way Colby does, and of Jerri and Amber, who saw Colby stick with Amber when Tina and Keith voted her off. Keith and Rodger are locks to vote for Tina, and it does look like Lis is more likely to vote for her substitute mom, especially considering how close she is to her real mom -- but Lis will also be impressed by Colby booting Keith, and I think she's more likely to switch to Colby than a Colby voter is to switch to Tina. In other words, I think a pure young/old voting breakdown is possible, and there are 5 young people on the jury. Prediction: 4-3 (or maybe even 5-2) for the Colbster.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-03-01, 03:04 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Jury Analysis" First and foremost, ICB and KB, glad to see you both posting. Welcome back from your reality tv filming, Krautboy. Like others have said, it looks like a Colby and Tina final two and I really have no idea why. Sure it could be MB throwing out some red herrings, but what we've seen really doesn't smell like a sham (not to be mistaken for "ass man," Nick). All I can suggest is that they have a pact and whoever wins immunity (uh, Colby) knows the other (uh, Tina) could poisen the jury (this has been suggested in other threads) by exposing his/her (Colbly's) broken word to him/her (Tina). In so doing, he/she (Colby) could be giving the million to Chef-boy-are-you-Shakes'-favorite-target-now-that-Amber-is-gone. Speaking of Amber, I've been thinking - oh wait that wouldn't be like Amber - uh, I've been fantasizing (Miss America) that perhaps Amber votes for Tina instead of Colby believing that she endured the greater hardship (flood, rice heroics) than Mr. I-win-everything-and-aint-that-somethin. I know, a little out there, but if she breaks ranks with the Brat Pack, this could explain why none of them (mainly Jerri)speak of/to her. P2S   Top

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