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topdog 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-01-01, 09:48 PM (EST) "probability analysis - all the answers are there" Ok, I have been reading this board for some time now, and I have to get my 2 cents in before this s2 ends.... To me, choosing the final three is a lot simpler then people are making it to be, and but also a lot more unpredictable. Let's not forget the #1 assumption we have to make for the final three survivors: Their only goal now is to win the million, and they will do this at all costs! These three people didn't get where they were by doing things out of respect for others, etc., they are here to win, plain and simple - that is why they are the final three. Going with this assumption, and knowing that they are all thinking about both making it to the final 2 and also winning the top prize, AND knowing that it would be really bad strategy of Tina or Colby to choose each other over Keith, everything must depend on who wins immunity - explained: Keith is by far the most unpopular survivor left, therefore he basically has a free round into the final. Knowing this then... 1) Colby wins immunity (likely - he's won the majoring in the past, and a single person dominated to the end in S1) - the vote will go against Tina. No matter how much Colby enjoys Tina's company, he will vote against her, as he is here to win, and Tina is simply way more popular then Keith in the eyes of others, final winner, Colby 2) Tina wins immunity - (unlike - he hasn't been winning, she is in bad physical shape), but if she does, Colby is gone - Tina didn't get where she is by playing favorites either, and Colby is possibly the most popular of the final three, final winner, Tina. 3) Keith wins immunity - (possible - he's done it in the past, and has been close), then this is the probability "swing". What I mean is that Keith controls the odds between Colby and Tina. Who does Keith think is the more popular (and WORSE in the final for him) of the two? I personally would say Colby, as even though Tina from the outside seems to connect better with people on the surface, Colby has the 'immunity' challenge winner popularity edge. But this is the most difficult question to answer and really the question to answer if one was to guess the final outcome. Either way, Keith doesn't have a chance of winning the million, but he is for sure going into the final round. SO........ The winner must either be Tina or Colby, most likely depending on immunity. AND....... Some less subjective analysis on who might win immunity: One bit of less subjective analysis that I will reflect on is Jerri's and Nick's comments on TV when they were respectively voted off. Jerri, being the gold digger that she is, wanted to get to know Colby better after survivor, something a person like Jerri would do only if she thought he may be the winner. With this in mind, Colby must be in the final two, and being against Keith, he would be in the final 2 (and the winner) Nick had said that he went to Vegas with Colby - I would think that this would signify that Colby would be more likely to be more the victor then Tina (would you go to vegas, after you ended up third, as opposed to being in the final 2? There has to be a reason to celebrate...) Throw in the fact that Colby would be the better survivor ambassedor then Tina (never underestimate the behind the scenes manipulation of survivor management), to me this works even more in Colby's favor. So therefore, in a less subjective analysis of immunity between Colby and Tina, Colby has the strong edge.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: probability analysis - all the ... Outfrontgirl 05-02-01 1    Colby and Tina AyatollahKhomeini 05-02-01 2        RE: Colby and Tina Outfrontgirl 05-02-01 3  RE: probability analysis - all the ... SurvivinDawg 05-02-01 4    RE: probability analysis - all the ... Minstrel 05-02-01 5    Yes!! GG 05-02-01 6        No!! ACPS65 05-03-01 7            RE: No!! Lurking 05-03-01 8

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-02-01, 02:22 AM (EST) 1. "RE: probability analysis - all the answers are there" Well-done analysis, topdog! I basically agree with your logic, and I admire the organized way you laid it out. I am nagged with this "highly subjective" fear that Tina gets it all or edges out Colby anyway. Every time that I've not wanted to believe something this season it's happened anyway, and I don't want Tina to win, so I'm concerned...Anyone else know that feeling? I do suspect that Jerri gets to direct her venom at Tina in the end. The twist would be if the competitor were Jerri's other enemy, Keith. On the Early Show, Gervase said "there's always a Survivor twist at the end." Yeah, I know there's only been one other show ending, but I also see his point. These people's minds have all been bent a bit by the end, and they might make strange choices. I'm sure that Lis (and likely Rodger) would back Tina or Colby after Keith. I'm sure Jerri and Amber would vote for Colby over Keith or Tina, but they might vote for Keith against Tina. Colby seems set to vote for Tina, but what if she's promised to go to the Final 2 with him and then picks Keith? I think you're right that this group of 3 just wants the least popular person by their side. In S1, however, Rich and Rudy were going to honor their Final 2 pact and take their chances. Rudy was very clear he would want to get even if he got betrayed. My question is, have any of these 3 made Final 2 pacts, and what kind of shifting could transpire if anyone betrays that?   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-02-01, 02:43 AM (EST) 2. "Colby and Tina" After Mitchell's USD speech, I argued that Colby and Tina had such a pact. According to Mitchell, they joined the Jerri-Mitchell alliance together, and they plotted together to save Keith, offering Mitchell a chance to survive if he had voted off Amber or Jerri. Mitchell and Jerri also had a "final two" pact. Until Colby's comment last week about his only loyalty being to Tina, we had seen no evidence of any link between C & T -- which led me to believe we were being manipulated. I'd still love to hear Colby's thoughts about Tina's vote against Amber, though!   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-02-01, 03:08 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Colby and Tina" Yes, Aya K, the Amber vote's the one thing that made Colby look like the outsider of the O3. I've argued and I'm still convinced he wasn't told. On the other hand, Tina and Keith were merely ensuring he kept his loyalty to them (or Tina, in truth, because I agree that Keith was an outsider who got saved for his strength and later for strategic reasons). What could Colby say to them--object that he no longer had options? As long as the 3 held the majority and proceeded to the end (which they have), then Colby cannot complain that the Amber boot hurt their position. Tina can argue that the Kuchas were soothed by not being completely Pagonged, so it was a good thing, and it's not Colby who will take any heat from Amber. I agree with you that he must have commented to the camera, and no doubt it would have shown us something that we're not supposed to know. Tina, too, must have said a lot we haven't been privy too. I'm just hoping there's a surprise revelation about alliances, or I'm going to lose all faith in MB's deviousness and manipulative ability and feel cheated. What's your guess at what could be revealed?   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-02-01, 06:24 AM (EST) 4. "RE: probability analysis - all the answers are there" LAST EDITED ON 05-02-01 AT 06:25 AM (EST) >Throw in the fact that Colby would be the better survivor >ambassedor then Tina (never underestimate the behind the scenes manipulation of survivor management), to me >this works even more in Colby's favor. Thank you. This is the absolute truth. This game has been manipulated by MB & Co. since the beginning. 1) First, the most unattractive person (Debb) was waxed. 2) Then "Mr. Military" Kel was waxed. He and Debb were the main two that intended to **SURVIVE** out there. 3) Mitchell was stunned when waxed (can you say "Stacey" of S1?) and it was Colby's vote that turned the tide there. 4) Ogakor wins the maze HANDILY. Failure to do so means Ogie death and a very boring next 4 weeks. 5) Colby is the 2d person to jump off the pole in the most important IC of Survivor (next to this last one). Yet Kucha votes for him anyway. 6) The vote for Amber. Sorry, but I STILL don't see that one if it wasn't fixed. 7) Colby's "sliding by" (without a carabiner!) in several challenges. Keith, by way of contrast, has had his hand slapped by JP a couple of times.... 8) AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME.... you are so absolutely right about who is going to be the most photogenic Survivor winner (not to mention speaker: Tina's drawl is TOO strong) and if anyone doesn't think MB is thinking of that, then I have some choice land east of Miami Beach to sell you. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged Save the drama for yo mama, and SPOIL MB'S PARTY!!!   Top

Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 05-02-01, 02:57 PM (EST) 5. "RE: probability analysis - all the answers are there" First I don't see the probability statistics in this post, but nevertheless. I find it uncomprehensible how Tina or Keith could want Colby in the final. He has virtually owned the challenges and would be a lock to win. Should the final IC be mental, Colby is in a bit of trouble as it really opens up the final IC to all three. One statistic. Colby averages at least one challenge won an episode beginning with E1. That is awesome! Based on this, K/T should pick each other for the final two and Colby would likely pick Tina. But as it is said before, the IC is the key and we have no knowledge of what it actually is. Only speculation. Basic knowledge says Colby has been the target for weeks now but his immunity wins have kept him alive. He is the biggest threat to win. So there is no reason he would be picked for the final 2 if he loses immunity. In a way, he's like Kelly -- needs to win immunity to stay alive. Only Colby has not been as "bad" as Kelly was. His riding the fence helps his cause some. I look for Colby to be booted if he doesn't win immunity, and I don't think he wins immunity this last time. Major spoiler is the Vegas pic. It is the only thing we have to go on. Those that think the pic was referring to Colby's comment after the game, well maybe. We don't know things like where the wrap party was held, etc. However, I think Colby would have answered the question put to the three of them differently had he not been voted out. It would have confused him a bit since the answer could easily have been interpreted strongly as where he went after leaving the outback versus booted. Had he not been booted, I think he would have hesitated and said something different, possibly omitting his own situation in his answer.   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-02-01, 07:13 PM (EST) 6. "Yes!!" Hear hear, S Dawg. Us cynics need to stick together. Having alluded to the game being rigged in Colby's favour in another thread that was meant to be light-hearted (since banished to the bashers board), I couldn't agree more. Now, if we can just prove it...   Top

ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-03-01, 06:40 AM (EST) 7. "No!!" You people keep forgetting Keith! Ah, you'll see what I mean.   Top

Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-03-01, 04:44 PM (EST) 8. "RE: No!!" I think Elisabeth would be even more marketable than Colby. Why not favor her as the winner? In any case, she isn't the winner.   Top

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